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3rd February 2023, 11:19 PM | #81 |
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The ballon has steering capabilities - at the very least, it can alter its altitude, putting it into a different Windstream or grounding it
That means it's not here by accident, or that said accident could have been avoided. Also, plenty of "weather observation system" can be dual purpose for spying. This is very much like the Blackbird flying over the USSR: just because it was very high it nevertheless was a hostile act. |
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4th February 2023, 12:14 AM | #82 |
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4th February 2023, 01:17 AM | #83 |
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4th February 2023, 01:21 AM | #84 |
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4th February 2023, 02:09 AM | #85 |
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4th February 2023, 02:40 AM | #86 |
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From what I gather, they denied it was a spy balloon. Now, two scenarios open up:
1. They are telling the truth and it is indeed not a spy balloon and probably a weather balloon that drifted off course and is one of many that are floating around. Perfectly logical. 2. They are lying and it is indeed a spy balloon, in which case it is perfectly natural they would deny it. However, this begs the question of the utility of a spy balloon. What can it do that more sophisticated instruments like satellites cannot? I am going with the former and going with the fact that right now usual suspects in the media have latched on to it as a way to generate hysteria. |
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4th February 2023, 02:54 AM | #87 |
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4th February 2023, 03:02 AM | #88 |
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4th February 2023, 03:04 AM | #89 |
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4th February 2023, 03:06 AM | #90 |
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Radiation detection is something a balloon could do better than a satellite. Same with high resolution infrared.
And both could be packed as "environmental detectors". |
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4th February 2023, 03:26 AM | #91 |
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Chinese state media initially denied it had anything to do with China at all, saying the US should carefully examine who the balloon belongs to, and refrain from accusing China without sufficient evidence. Then later changed their story to denying it was a spy balloon.
And if it was just a weather balloon, why did they not notify the US in the first place, when it entered US territory? What can a lower flying balloon do that a satellite cannot? Collect signals intelligence. |
4th February 2023, 04:02 AM | #92 |
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Is this true? Just because someone takes a short cut across your fromt yard does not give you a right to shoot them. (Or perhaps it does in some US states?) We don't shoot spies. If a ship loses steerage and drifts into US territorial waters that would not mean the US navy had the right to sink it. The US has the right to bring a complaint in the appropriate courts for failing to file a flight plan. But if the balloon is no threat of harm to anyone and outside of flight lanes then the US may have no right to damage someone's property.
The US government objects when its own spy drones are shot down even if they violated someone else's territorial limits. |
4th February 2023, 04:11 AM | #93 |
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4th February 2023, 04:15 AM | #94 |
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4th February 2023, 04:47 AM | #95 |
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4th February 2023, 04:50 AM | #96 |
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4th February 2023, 04:58 AM | #97 |
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As Malbui points out that supposedly happened in Hartlepool.
The local football club have long had a monkey mascot named Hangus; the bloke who once wore the monkey suit was elected mayor of Hartlepool. Hartlepool is a strange place - I once worked there, but they let me out... |
4th February 2023, 05:04 AM | #98 |
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4th February 2023, 05:17 AM | #99 |
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A rudder can't do much on a free-floating balloon. At best I would say it could make the balloon rotate around its vertical axis and that's it. Tentatively, I'm dismissing the description of the balloon as having "steering capability" as unrealistic. It's much more likely that what's being described as a "rudder" is just a fixed vertical stabilizer meant to keep the payload oriented a certain way with respect to the balloon's direction of travel (which is entirely at the mercy of the wind).
There are other photos. What you see it just what it looks like. |
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4th February 2023, 06:02 AM | #100 |
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4th February 2023, 06:15 AM | #101 |
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4th February 2023, 06:18 AM | #102 |
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4th February 2023, 06:24 AM | #103 |
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4th February 2023, 07:00 AM | #104 |
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4th February 2023, 07:51 AM | #105 |
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4th February 2023, 07:53 AM | #106 |
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Who knows, maybe this was more a political stunt than anything else. After all, it was sent over just before a high level meeting; though what China hoped to gain, I don't know. It seems to have triggered the right pretty good, maybe that was the intent? Weaken Blinken's position?
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4th February 2023, 07:58 AM | #107 |
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4th February 2023, 08:04 AM | #108 |
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I think that is and should be standard SOP between nation states, for this sort of thing. There's nothing to be gained by admitting to stuff willy-nilly, and answering questions that haven't even been asked yet, rather than just keeping your mouth shut until you see what cards the other side is actually holding.
Which may also explain why the US didn't attack it sooner: They wanted to get a better idea of what was going on before starting an international incident. |
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4th February 2023, 08:33 AM | #109 |
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Actually, SOP for Nuclear Powers should be to inform the other side instantly when something of yours is drifting their way.
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4th February 2023, 08:44 AM | #110 |
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4th February 2023, 08:48 AM | #111 |
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4th February 2023, 08:48 AM | #112 |
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For those of you saying the US should have downed this balloon already: the NY Post agrees with you.
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4th February 2023, 08:52 AM | #113 |
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But this is a spy mission. When I said "... should be standard SOP between nation states, for this sort of thing" I literally meant for this sort of thing.
I suppose you're worried Dark Brandon will go full HAM on China, if they don't fess up to this sort of thing immediately upon being noticed. |
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4th February 2023, 09:23 AM | #114 |
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Originally Posted by crescent
I'm thinking, 500 meter lengths of thin Kevlar thread, with sharp barbs every 5 meters or so and a half kilogram weight at each end, might do the trick. But, not an easy task to deliver that payload to the balloon. |
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4th February 2023, 09:46 AM | #115 |
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Did a little digging on air space rights. Seems there is no international agreement about how high up sovereignty extends. I have only skimmed the following documents.
Found on a US military site but the paper is from Canada and describes the need for an agreement on vertical sovereignty. It is from 2005. Mostly makes the point that at least by 2005 there was no agreement. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA436627.pdf Then we have an FAA document talking about class E air space, which is usually anything over 60,000 feet. Anything over that is out of the range of effective control. Note that the balloon may be dropping below that at night. They do point out that technology has improved since that limit was defined. https://www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_ope...pper_class_etm The UN body that is supposed to work this sort of thing out. They don't seem to have anything yet. When they do, if the International Law Of the Sea treaty is an example, normal humans won't ever try to read it and it will be incredibly complicated. https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwo...uos/index.html |
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4th February 2023, 10:01 AM | #116 |
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Embarrassment?
Or maybe the people making the "it's not ours" claims didn't have all the information? (Fog of war... Or fog of ballooning.) Certainly wouldn't be the first time a government made a statement that was wrong because the spokesman didn't talk to the right People. Sent from my moto e using Tapatalk |
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4th February 2023, 10:03 AM | #117 |
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There are already a couple of high-profile hoaxes out about it. Twitter shows dozens of article about "something" exploding and falling to the ground in Billings, Montana. They all reference the same source, some woman who claims to have taken the video from her back yard. You'd think other people would have seen and recorded and reported it as well, in the middle of the city no less.
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4th February 2023, 10:05 AM | #118 |
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4th February 2023, 10:31 AM | #119 |
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4th February 2023, 10:33 AM | #120 |
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Better check, "Can you be killed by a falling bullet?", first.
Celebratory gunfire (The chances are slim but the answer is yes.) |
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