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Old 3rd February 2023, 11:19 PM   #81
The Great Zaganza
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The ballon has steering capabilities - at the very least, it can alter its altitude, putting it into a different Windstream or grounding it
That means it's not here by accident, or that said accident could have been avoided.
Also, plenty of "weather observation system" can be dual purpose for spying.

This is very much like the Blackbird flying over the USSR: just because it was very high it nevertheless was a hostile act.
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Old 4th February 2023, 12:14 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by sarge View Post
No, it isn’t. Or at least it wasn’t. Our airspace has a vertical limit that this ballon was above.
You seem to have just made that up.
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Old 4th February 2023, 01:17 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The ballon has steering capabilities - at the very least, it can alter its altitude, putting it into a different Windstream or grounding it
That means it's not here by accident, or that said accident could have been avoided.
Also, plenty of "weather observation system" can be dual purpose for spying.

This is very much like the Blackbird flying over the USSR: just because it was very high it nevertheless was a hostile act.
They could have lost control of the balloon. But if you are right then it would be a hostile act.
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Old 4th February 2023, 01:21 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Didn't the English execute as a spy a monkey that washed up from a shipwreck during the Napoleonic Wars? How many lives they saved are, well, uncountable!
The people of Hartlepool are affectionately known as 'Monkey Hangers' to this day.
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Old 4th February 2023, 02:09 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by sarge View Post
No, it isn’t. Or at least it wasn’t. Our airspace has a vertical limit that this ballon was above.

It obviously isn’t a ‘spy ballon’. It obviously isn’t a threat. It seemingly arrived here accidentally. It is more dangerous shot down than floating about. What should be done about it?
Then why did the CCP deny it was from China in the first place?
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Old 4th February 2023, 02:40 AM   #86
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From what I gather, they denied it was a spy balloon. Now, two scenarios open up:

1. They are telling the truth and it is indeed not a spy balloon and probably a weather balloon that drifted off course and is one of many that are floating around. Perfectly logical.

2. They are lying and it is indeed a spy balloon, in which case it is perfectly natural they would deny it. However, this begs the question of the utility of a spy balloon. What can it do that more sophisticated instruments like satellites cannot?

I am going with the former and going with the fact that right now usual suspects in the media have latched on to it as a way to generate hysteria.
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Old 4th February 2023, 02:54 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by Susheel View Post
From what I gather, they denied it was a spy balloon. Now, two scenarios open up:

1. They are telling the truth and it is indeed not a spy balloon and probably a weather balloon that drifted off course and is one of many that are floating around. Perfectly logical.

2. They are lying and it is indeed a spy balloon, in which case it is perfectly natural they would deny it. However, this begs the question of the utility of a spy balloon. What can it do that more sophisticated instruments like satellites cannot?

I am going with the former and going with the fact that right now usual suspects in the media have latched on to it as a way to generate hysteria.
Like Anthony Blinken and Joe Biden?
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Old 4th February 2023, 03:02 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
Like Anthony Blinken and Joe Biden?
Could you provide examples of their hysterical responses?
I thought their responses were quite sensible. It is Fox that is going around with their asses on fire.
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Old 4th February 2023, 03:04 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by sarge View Post
No, it isn’t. Or at least it wasn’t. Our airspace has a vertical limit that this ballon was above.

It obviously isn’t a ‘spy ballon’. It obviously isn’t a threat. It seemingly arrived here accidentally. It is more dangerous shot down than floating about. What should be done about it?
Really? you know so much about Chinese balloons? as opposed to wishful thinking?

It's carryiing a payload which appears to include solar panels, so it's likely to be a long duration operation, whatever it is for.
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Old 4th February 2023, 03:06 AM   #90
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Radiation detection is something a balloon could do better than a satellite. Same with high resolution infrared.
And both could be packed as "environmental detectors".
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Old 4th February 2023, 03:26 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Susheel View Post
From what I gather, they denied it was a spy balloon. Now, two scenarios open up:

1. They are telling the truth and it is indeed not a spy balloon and probably a weather balloon that drifted off course and is one of many that are floating around. Perfectly logical.

2. They are lying and it is indeed a spy balloon, in which case it is perfectly natural they would deny it. However, this begs the question of the utility of a spy balloon. What can it do that more sophisticated instruments like satellites cannot?

I am going with the former and going with the fact that right now usual suspects in the media have latched on to it as a way to generate hysteria.
Chinese state media initially denied it had anything to do with China at all, saying the US should carefully examine who the balloon belongs to, and refrain from accusing China without sufficient evidence. Then later changed their story to denying it was a spy balloon.

And if it was just a weather balloon, why did they not notify the US in the first place, when it entered US territory?

What can a lower flying balloon do that a satellite cannot? Collect signals intelligence.
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Old 4th February 2023, 04:02 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Satellites are above US Airspace. THis Balloon is not.It's a clear violation of US Air Space. I will go with the Pentagon's judgement not shoot it down..I suspect it is because they are studying it ...but the US would be 100% withink it rights to shoot the damn thing down.
Is this true? Just because someone takes a short cut across your fromt yard does not give you a right to shoot them. (Or perhaps it does in some US states?) We don't shoot spies. If a ship loses steerage and drifts into US territorial waters that would not mean the US navy had the right to sink it. The US has the right to bring a complaint in the appropriate courts for failing to file a flight plan. But if the balloon is no threat of harm to anyone and outside of flight lanes then the US may have no right to damage someone's property.

The US government objects when its own spy drones are shot down even if they violated someone else's territorial limits.

Last edited by Planigale; 4th February 2023 at 04:04 AM.
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Old 4th February 2023, 04:11 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Chinese state media initially denied it had anything to do with China at all, saying the US should carefully examine who the balloon belongs to, and refrain from accusing China without sufficient evidence. Then later changed their story to denying it was a spy balloon.

And if it was just a weather balloon, why did they not notify the US in the first place, when it entered US territory?

What can a lower flying balloon do that a satellite cannot? Collect signals intelligence.
And detailed information on tracking equipment operation.
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Old 4th February 2023, 04:15 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Is this true? Just because someone takes a short cut across your fromt yard does not give you a right to shoot them. (Or perhaps it does in some US states?) We don't shoot spies. If a ship loses steerage and drifts into US territorial waters that would not mean the US navy had the right to sink it. The US has the right to bring a complaint in the appropriate courts for failing to file a flight plan. But if the balloon is no threat of harm to anyone and outside of flight lanes then the US may have no right to damage someone's property.

The US government objects when its own spy drones are shot down even if they violated someone else's territorial limits.
So? That isn't a reason not to prevent others doing the same to them. It would no doubt be hypocritical to complain but in no way repudiates the right of the other to prevent incursions.
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Old 4th February 2023, 04:47 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Why...would you make a spy balloon that is visible to the naked eye from the ground? Doesn't seem very clandestine. And how are they sure it's Chinese? I mean, everything is made in China now so if they just see "Made in China" on the side it's not really a slam dunk.

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It says, 'Made in Japan', huh?
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Old 4th February 2023, 04:50 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
So? That isn't a reason not to prevent others doing the same to them. It would no doubt be hypocritical to complain but in no way repudiates the right of the other to prevent incursions.
However it implies the US government thinks there is not a right to just shoot down aircraft that infringe territorial boundaries if they are not any threat of direct harm.
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Old 4th February 2023, 04:58 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Didn't the English execute as a spy a monkey that washed up from a shipwreck during the Napoleonic Wars? How many lives they saved are, well, uncountable!
As Malbui points out that supposedly happened in Hartlepool.

The local football club have long had a monkey mascot named Hangus; the bloke who once wore the monkey suit was elected mayor of Hartlepool.

Hartlepool is a strange place - I once worked there, but they let me out...
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Old 4th February 2023, 05:04 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto View Post
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According to three U.S. officials, Biden was initially inclined to order the surveillance balloon to be blown out of the sky, and a senior defence official said the U.S. had prepared fighter jets, including F-22s, to shoot it down if ordered.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, strongly advised Biden against shooting down the balloon, warning that its size — as big as three school buses — and considerable weight could create a debris field large enough to endanger Americans on the ground. The Pentagon also assessed that after unspecified U.S. measures, the possibility of the balloon uncovering important information was not great.
If that is accurate, the case to not shoot it down becomes much stronger. I didn't realize from the photos alone that the payload was that massive.
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Old 4th February 2023, 05:17 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by Ryan O'Dine View Post
Apparently the surveillance equipment is as big as 3 school buses, there are solar panels and a rudder. Not an insignificant payload.
A rudder can't do much on a free-floating balloon. At best I would say it could make the balloon rotate around its vertical axis and that's it. Tentatively, I'm dismissing the description of the balloon as having "steering capability" as unrealistic. It's much more likely that what's being described as a "rudder" is just a fixed vertical stabilizer meant to keep the payload oriented a certain way with respect to the balloon's direction of travel (which is entirely at the mercy of the wind).

Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
That's the picture that looks really odd to me, as if someone had gone over some parts of it with Microsoft Paint. Those hard, dark edges look out of place.
There are other photos. What you see it just what it looks like.
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Old 4th February 2023, 06:02 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
However it implies the US government thinks there is not a right to just shoot down aircraft that infringe territorial boundaries if they are not any threat of direct harm.
The US government may be well aware that there is a right to shoot down the aircraft (which doesn't have to be exercised). The fact they complain of others exercising that right does not mean they consider there is no such right.
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Old 4th February 2023, 06:15 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Then why did the CCP deny it was from China in the first place?
China has admitted that the ballon is theirs.
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Old 4th February 2023, 06:18 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
You seem to have just made that up.
I didn’t. The ballon was reported to have been above the limits of our controlled airspace when it crossed our borders.
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Old 4th February 2023, 06:24 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
The US government may be well aware that there is a right to shoot down the aircraft (which doesn't have to be exercised). The fact they complain of others exercising that right does not mean they consider there is no such right.
When has the US complained of others exercising that right?
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Old 4th February 2023, 07:00 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Herschel Walker is saying I told you so
Better than whatever Margie Green has to say about it.
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Old 4th February 2023, 07:51 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Is this true? Just because someone takes a short cut across your fromt yard does not give you a right to shoot them. (Or perhaps it does in some US states?) We don't shoot spies. If a ship loses steerage and drifts into US territorial waters that would not mean the US navy had the right to sink it. The US has the right to bring a complaint in the appropriate courts for failing to file a flight plan. But if the balloon is no threat of harm to anyone and outside of flight lanes then the US may have no right to damage someone's property.

The US government objects when its own spy drones are shot down even if they violated someone else's territorial limits.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
When has the US complained of others exercising that right?
Best ask Planigale...
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Old 4th February 2023, 07:53 AM   #106
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Who knows, maybe this was more a political stunt than anything else. After all, it was sent over just before a high level meeting; though what China hoped to gain, I don't know. It seems to have triggered the right pretty good, maybe that was the intent? Weaken Blinken's position?
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Old 4th February 2023, 07:58 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by sarge View Post
China has admitted that the balloon is theirs.
Yes, eventually.

After denying it first in their state media.
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Old 4th February 2023, 08:04 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Yes, eventually.

After denying it first in their state media.
I think that is and should be standard SOP between nation states, for this sort of thing. There's nothing to be gained by admitting to stuff willy-nilly, and answering questions that haven't even been asked yet, rather than just keeping your mouth shut until you see what cards the other side is actually holding.

Which may also explain why the US didn't attack it sooner: They wanted to get a better idea of what was going on before starting an international incident.
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Old 4th February 2023, 08:33 AM   #109
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Actually, SOP for Nuclear Powers should be to inform the other side instantly when something of yours is drifting their way.
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Old 4th February 2023, 08:44 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Actually, SOP for Nuclear Powers should be to inform the other side instantly when something of yours is drifting their way.
LOL no. That has never been the SOP.
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Old 4th February 2023, 08:48 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
LOL no. That has never been the SOP.
Yes it has.
If it wasn't a spy mission, superpowers would give each other heads-up for stuff that might trigger an unwarranted response.
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Old 4th February 2023, 08:48 AM   #112
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For those of you saying the US should have downed this balloon already: the NY Post agrees with you.
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Old 4th February 2023, 08:52 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Yes it has.
If it wasn't a spy mission, superpowers would give each other heads-up for stuff that might trigger an unwarranted response.
But this is a spy mission. When I said "... should be standard SOP between nation states, for this sort of thing" I literally meant for this sort of thing.

I suppose you're worried Dark Brandon will go full HAM on China, if they don't fess up to this sort of thing immediately upon being noticed.
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Old 4th February 2023, 09:23 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by crescent
Busting That Chinese Spy Balloon Is Harder Than You Think (Updated)

Quote:
The problem though is one of scale. Stratospheric balloons are colossal. NASA’s standard balloons are 40 million cubic feet, a volume equivalent to more than 195 GoodyearGT -1.4% blimps: you could fit en entire football stadium inside one. The balloon envelope is made of plastic material no thicker than sandwich wrap, and the pressure difference between the inside and outside is small. Attempting to let the air out by punching a few holes is like expecting to ventilate an entire warehouse with fresh air by opening one small window.

We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting.

A volley of 2.75” rockets was equally ineffective, as the high-explosive rockets simply flew though the balloon without detonating.

I'm thinking, 500 meter lengths of thin Kevlar thread, with sharp barbs every 5 meters or so and a half kilogram weight at each end, might do the trick. But, not an easy task to deliver that payload to the balloon.
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Old 4th February 2023, 09:46 AM   #115
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Did a little digging on air space rights. Seems there is no international agreement about how high up sovereignty extends. I have only skimmed the following documents.

Found on a US military site but the paper is from Canada and describes the need for an agreement on vertical sovereignty. It is from 2005. Mostly makes the point that at least by 2005 there was no agreement.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA436627.pdf


Then we have an FAA document talking about class E air space, which is usually anything over 60,000 feet. Anything over that is out of the range of effective control. Note that the balloon may be dropping below that at night. They do point out that technology has improved since that limit was defined.

https://www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_ope...pper_class_etm

The UN body that is supposed to work this sort of thing out. They don't seem to have anything yet. When they do, if the International Law Of the Sea treaty is an example, normal humans won't ever try to read it and it will be incredibly complicated.

https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwo...uos/index.html
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Old 4th February 2023, 10:01 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Then why did the CCP deny it was from China in the first place?
Embarrassment?

Or maybe the people making the "it's not ours" claims didn't have all the information? (Fog of war... Or fog of ballooning.) Certainly wouldn't be the first time a government made a statement that was wrong because the spokesman didn't talk to the right People.

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Old 4th February 2023, 10:03 AM   #117
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There are already a couple of high-profile hoaxes out about it. Twitter shows dozens of article about "something" exploding and falling to the ground in Billings, Montana. They all reference the same source, some woman who claims to have taken the video from her back yard. You'd think other people would have seen and recorded and reported it as well, in the middle of the city no less.
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Old 4th February 2023, 10:05 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Oh, in that case the chances are pretty good it'll be brought down by random gunfire.


Oops, meant to clap the previous Hunter Biden laptop post.

Last edited by Gulliver Foyle; 4th February 2023 at 10:36 AM.
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Old 4th February 2023, 10:31 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird View Post
Then why did the CCP deny it was from China in the first place?
Because it forces the US to explain exactly how they know it's a Chinese item. Knowing what kind of evidence the US is able to get, and how they reason about such evidence, is useful.
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Old 4th February 2023, 10:33 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle View Post


Better check, "Can you be killed by a falling bullet?", first.

Celebratory gunfire

(The chances are slim but the answer is yes.)

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