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Old 2nd January 2023, 06:53 PM   #1
Norman Alexander
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Can the Dems retain the House Speaker??!

The GOP seems determined to continue to shoot itself in both feet and kneecaps while it continues to field such maladroit nincompoops as Kevin McCarthy for Speaker. Here he is just today failing to get his extreme right party brethren on board to support his bid for Speaker, because, it seems, he is not fascist enough like them.

Quote:
The final hurdle to Republican Kevin McCarthy’s years-long quest to secure the speaker’s gavel grew even more formidable on Monday as a sizable group of House colleagues from his own party said they were not yet ready to support him.

The nine Republican rebels made the announcement after the California congressman made a series of concessions on Sunday to try to shore up the support of conservative hardliners ahead of Republicans assuming control of the US lower chamber on Tuesday.

McCarthy can afford to lose only four votes from his party’s slender majority if he is to win the election for speaker that will be among the first orders of business for the new Congress.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...rdliners-house


Here's my questions: How is the Representatives Speaker position selected? Is it a whole-of-House vote? Has it been assumed that the majority party will get their choice simply because they are the majority and they will all vote for the one candidate?

Assuming it is indeed a whole-of-House vote, what happens if the Dems field and all vote for their own candidate, and the Republicans split their votes between two internal rivals? (Pro-Kevin and anti-Kevin??) Surely if the Dem candidate has the majority of House votes, s/he is elected Speaker!

Could this happen??
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Last edited by Norman Alexander; 2nd January 2023 at 06:55 PM.
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Old 2nd January 2023, 07:14 PM   #2
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It's explained here: https://www.kcra.com/article/house-s...ained/42379373
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Old 2nd January 2023, 07:49 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
The GOP seems determined to continue to shoot itself in both feet and kneecaps while it continues to field such maladroit nincompoops as Kevin McCarthy for Speaker. Here he is just today failing to get his extreme right party brethren on board to support his bid for Speaker, because, it seems, he is not fascist enough like them.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...rdliners-house


Here's my questions: How is the Representatives Speaker position selected? Is it a whole-of-House vote? Has it been assumed that the majority party will get their choice simply because they are the majority and they will all vote for the one candidate?

Assuming it is indeed a whole-of-House vote, what happens if the Dems field and all vote for their own candidate, and the Republicans split their votes between two internal rivals? (Pro-Kevin and anti-Kevin??) Surely if the Dem candidate has the majority of House votes, s/he is elected Speaker!

Could this happen??
It could happen. It would be hilarious if it did.

But it won't.
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Old 2nd January 2023, 07:51 PM   #4
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McCarthy's already moving things into the Speaker's office.

This could be embarrassing.
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Old 2nd January 2023, 08:44 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
The GOP seems determined to continue to shoot itself in both feet and kneecaps while it continues to field such maladroit nincompoops as Kevin McCarthy for Speaker. Here he is just today failing to get his extreme right party brethren on board to support his bid for Speaker, because, it seems, he is not fascist enough like them.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...rdliners-house


Here's my questions: How is the Representatives Speaker position selected? Is it a whole-of-House vote? Has it been assumed that the majority party will get their choice simply because they are the majority and they will all vote for the one candidate?

Assuming it is indeed a whole-of-House vote, what happens if the Dems field and all vote for their own candidate, and the Republicans split their votes between two internal rivals? (Pro-Kevin and anti-Kevin??) Surely if the Dem candidate has the majority of House votes, s/he is elected Speaker!

Could this happen??
The Speaker doesn't have to be a member. Some MAGATs have proposed electing Trump. Some Dems have proposed electing Liz Cheney. But all very unlikely.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:33 AM   #6
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No. They will find a way, and Democrats won't like it, because it means kowtowing (if that's not a forbidden word these days) to guys like Andy Biggs.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:50 AM   #7
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Those opposing McCarthy are even more extreme than he is.
This would include Andy Biggs , Matt Gaetz , and Paul Gosar all of whom are devout Trump anal spelunkers. If not McCarthy, then who? That could be an even worse nightmare, though hard to imagine.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:52 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
So the crucial point is that the successful candidate has to attain a majority of the votes of those members who actually cast a vote. So members registering as "present" but not voting for a candidate can actually reduce the number of votes required to attain that majority.

So can someone please do the sums: Assuming all the Democrats vote for their candidate, how many Republicans have to register "present" in order for the Dem candidate to have a majority?
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Old 3rd January 2023, 03:25 AM   #9
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IMO the the "rebel" Republicans will swing smoothly back into line when push comes to shove and will "happily" deal with the concessions that McCarthy has made to the extreme right wing.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 03:32 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO the the "rebel" Republicans will swing smoothly back into line when push comes to shove and will "happily" deal with the concessions that McCarthy has made to the extreme right wing.
One thing about US politics in the last decade is that nothing is predictable. Yes, this would be the logical response in years past, but who knows now?
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Old 3rd January 2023, 06:27 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
So the crucial point is that the successful candidate has to attain a majority of the votes of those members who actually cast a vote. So members registering as "present" but not voting for a candidate can actually reduce the number of votes required to attain that majority.

So can someone please do the sums: Assuming all the Democrats vote for their candidate, how many Republicans have to register "present" in order for the Dem candidate to have a majority?
10. It won't happen.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 07:13 AM   #12
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The "rebel" faction has already given McCarthy their list of demands. Mostly conspiracy-twinged stuff like investigating the "overreaction" to COVID and how much money Joe Biden gets from China. Stuff that was probably already going to be investigated and the hearing prime time on FOX, but McCarthy didn't want to start banging those drums yet. The big sticking point is they want to have another election for Speaker in a year. He'll "give" them a few things on the list, avoid the ...quarter-term(?)...election, everybody will claim victory, and McCarthy wins the election.


And will promptly resign within a year.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 07:30 AM   #13
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McCarthy losing the Speakership would be hilarious, and appropriate given how that little **** has covered for Trump, but so unlikely.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 07:31 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
The "rebel" faction has already given McCarthy their list of demands. Mostly conspiracy-twinged stuff like investigating the "overreaction" to COVID and how much money Joe Biden gets from China. Stuff that was probably already going to be investigated and the hearing prime time on FOX, but McCarthy didn't want to start banging those drums yet. The big sticking point is they want to have another election for Speaker in a year. He'll "give" them a few things on the list, avoid the ...quarter-term(?)...election, everybody will claim victory, and McCarthy wins the election.


And will promptly resign within a year.
They want to have public hearings looking at the COVID response during the Trump admin? No wonder McConnell hates these people
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Old 3rd January 2023, 07:45 AM   #15
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While this is in flux, I suppose there's no Speaker in the line of succession. Or is Pelosi still in line?
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Old 3rd January 2023, 07:51 AM   #16
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Poor Kevin. Meme created by me minutes ago. Not from Twitter.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg kevin mccarthy.jpg (42.2 KB, 28 views)
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Old 3rd January 2023, 07:58 AM   #17
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Inb4 a couple of Democrats vote to carry him across the river because he promises not to sting this time.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 09:42 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Thanks for that, been wondering, though too lazy to look.
A Dem winning the speakership is a lovely fantasy, but only a fantasy.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 11:26 AM   #19
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NOW: Rep. Kevin McCarthy appears to fall short of House speakership. The speaker vote is poised to go to a second ballot for the first time in 100 years as GOP members reject McCarthy's bid.
CNN
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Old 3rd January 2023, 11:28 AM   #20
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What does McCarthy need to do to win?
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Old 3rd January 2023, 11:29 AM   #21
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Make Trump the House Speaker.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 11:45 AM   #22
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The Democrat leader just won more votes than McCarthy. 9 more! LOL!!!!
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Old 3rd January 2023, 11:52 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
NOW: Rep. Kevin McCarthy appears to fall short of House speakership. The speaker vote is poised to go to a second ballot for the first time in 100 years as GOP members reject McCarthy's bid.
CNN
Oh, that made me laugh. I still think he'll get it in the end, but he's reaping what he sowed
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:04 PM   #24
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How is this resolved? Endless votes until the renegade Reps cave in through sheer weariness?
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:07 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
How is this resolved? Endless votes until the renegade Reps cave in through sheer weariness?
Or endless concessions until they are placated.

Especially prime committee appointments
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:11 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
The GOP seems determined to continue to shoot itself in both feet and kneecaps while it continues to field such maladroit nincompoops as Kevin McCarthy for Speaker. Here he is just today failing to get his extreme right party brethren on board to support his bid for Speaker, because, it seems, he is not fascist enough like them.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...rdliners-house


Here's my questions: How is the Representatives Speaker position selected? Is it a whole-of-House vote? Has it been assumed that the majority party will get their choice simply because they are the majority and they will all vote for the one candidate?

Assuming it is indeed a whole-of-House vote, what happens if the Dems field and all vote for their own candidate, and the Republicans split their votes between two internal rivals? (Pro-Kevin and anti-Kevin??) Surely if the Dem candidate has the majority of House votes, s/he is elected Speaker!

Could this happen??
Possible but unlikely, as a majority of votes cast is required, so at least a few House Republicans would have to vote for a Democrat, or abstain for that to happen. But it does seem likely that McCarthy's selection will be contested.

ETA: Is being contested. I think the HOR is going to be a complete clown show for the next two years.

Last edited by CORed; 3rd January 2023 at 12:13 PM.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:23 PM   #27
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I may have missed it if someone has already said. What happens if no one can get a majority of the votes?


eta: oh, lord. Gaetz just nom'd Jim Jordan who just finished nom'ing McCarthy. The GQP circus is in full swing.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:28 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
I still think he'll get it in the end
Looks like he already is
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:30 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by CORed View Post
I think the HOR is going to be a complete clown show for the next two years.
You didn't need this particular **** show to see that
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:31 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
How is this resolved? Endless votes until the renegade Reps cave in through sheer weariness?
Pretty much. The House cannot do any other business until a speaker is elected. So they will vote and vote and vote until a single candidate has a majority.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:33 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
Looks like he already is
My feed must be behind. Did he win the second round?
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:34 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
My feed must be behind. Did he win the second round?
No, he's now losing votes to Jordan.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:36 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Pretty much. The House cannot do any other business until a speaker is elected. So they will vote and vote and vote until a single candidate has a majority.
Republicans run a platform based on the concept that the government is the problem.

Then when they get a chance to run things, they make that concept into reality.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:50 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by CORed View Post
Possible but unlikely, as a majority of votes cast is required, so at least a few House Republicans would have to vote for a Democrat, or abstain for that to happen. But it does seem likely that McCarthy's selection will be contested.

ETA: Is being contested. I think the HOR is going to be a complete clown show for the next two years.
Almost, but not quite. If a Republican votes "present" or misses a ballot they effectively make the House smaller. So instead of needing 218 votes for a majority, 210 votes might create a majority.

This will be interesting as it is possible for that the Democrats might be the key to electing a Speaker. Electing a speaker might God Forbid, might require working a deal with the Democrats to resolve the election.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:52 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Republicans run a platform based on the concept that the government is the problem.

Then when they get a chance to run things, they make that concept into reality.
As a political junkie, I find this to be very interesting.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:56 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Almost, but not quite. If a Republican votes "present" or misses a ballot they effectively make the House smaller. So instead of needing 218 votes for a majority, 210 votes might create a majority.

This will be interesting as it is possible for that the Democrats might be the key to electing a Speaker. Electing a speaker might God Forbid, working a deal with the Democrats to resolve the election.
True, but McCarthy cannot win if he doesn't even get the most votes*. He was 9 votes behind Jeffries on the 1st ballot. Apparently he also lost the 2nd.. but I can't find the details.

*so if its only GoP people that are voting "present" he cannot win methinks.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 12:57 PM   #37
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From The Guardian:

"Older fights over the speakership dragged on even longer, such as the 1855 deadlock that ended with the election of Rep. Nathaniel Banks as speaker. It took 133 ballots. “This will not take that [long],” former House speaker Newt Gingrich told The Early last month."
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Old 3rd January 2023, 01:01 PM   #38
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CNN is doing a live count. I think he's already lost enough votes (15) to Jordan to win the second round.
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Old 3rd January 2023, 01:04 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
CNN is doing a live count. I think he's already lost enough votes (15) to Jordan to win the second round.
He's going to have even fewer votes this round
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Old 3rd January 2023, 01:06 PM   #40
Upchurch
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Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Louis, MO
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
He's going to have even fewer votes this round
Jeffries keeps tying McCarthy and even pulling ahead by a vote or two before McCarthy comes back. It is hilarious.
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