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Tags Coronavirus

View Poll Results: Who do you blame?
Trump. He should have at least done a PSA encouraging people to get vaccinated. 42 37.84%
Right wing media for almost embracing an anti-vax sentiment 67 60.36%
Republican Governors particularly Desantis and Abbott 50 45.05%
Internet know it alls that don't actually. 30 27.03%
The Republican party for trying to be as crazy as Trump. 52 46.85%
Joe Biden for not being persuasive enough 3 2.70%
The Democrats because shouldn't we blame them? 3 2.70%
The public for being just too stupid. 59 53.15%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 111. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 19th August 2021, 02:41 AM   #161
Samson
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Originally Posted by 8enotto View Post
People of all walks of life carry the blame.

The agencies worldwide had a plan to contain spread and somewhat control the losses eventually. People just wouldn't do it for several billion personal reasons.

It was a case of high levels of compliance would be required, everywhere at the same time or we would fall back to what we have now.

The percentage of folks worldwide that were truly compliant is a small. Most slipped a bit here and there eventually. Some never got on board.
The vital statistics are elementary.

1970 to 2021
Human biomass doubles.
Non human biomass halves.

Therefore repurpose slaughter houses.
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Old 19th August 2021, 06:40 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
That's a spelling error. I make them all the time. Nothing foolish about it. That the error spelled another word makes the spellcheck ignore it.

I just like the idea that your pears had issues with the vaccine. I was going to ask, how do your apples feel about it.
Yup, you make buckets of spelling mistakes.

Nevertheless your meaning and intent is always clear so don't worry about it.
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Old 19th August 2021, 06:55 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
Yup, you make buckets of spelling mistakes.

Nevertheless your meaning and intent is always clear so don't worry about it.
Reminds me of that old saying from Uni.. "fore yers ago I coodnt even spel injineer, and now I are one"
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Old 19th August 2021, 09:39 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Nope, you are quoting figureus from a three year old article which is itself quoting eleven year old statistics

Here are more up to date figures...

Your other two figures regarding Louisiana and Florida are wrong as well
You are being highly misleading. Your figures only cite population currently incarcerated. The problem with convicted felons is that they continue to be disenfranchised while on parole, probation, and in many states permanently.

My figure of +/- 8% people with a felony conviction is accurate. But looking more closely, not all of them lost their right to vote in the last election. Nationwide, it was 5.1million voters, or 1 in 44 citizens who lost their vote due to felony convictions as of October 2020. That's not the 8% I alluded to, but it ain't the half percent you claimed, either. One in 44 is not exactly chump change when 30-40 percent wins your state.

And Floridian felons who could not vote was indeed around 10%.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felo..._United_States


Quote:
It could be, if it was 100% dependent on wealth, but its not. The Covid-19 vaccine plan is 100% Federally funded. People do not require any kind of healthcare plan or medical insurance of any kind. Both jabs are free (or the one jab if you're getting J&J). You can be as poor as a church mouse, and still vaccinated at no cost.
The cost is irrelevant. We are talking about outlooks and beliefs. My question is, should we expect a strong correlation of antivaxxer sentiment based on the individual's socioeconomic status and also their feelings about trusting government in general?

Quote:
Yes, I acknowledge that economics may play a part, but...I stand by my position that the major driver is politics.

The GOP, their carnival barkers and their media mouthpieces have made the pandemic a partisan political issue; they have made anti-science, anti-mask, anti-vaccine and playing down the pandemic their core platform. This is not an opinion, its clear and obvious fact, right that there to see for anyone who has their eyes open.
And just like carnival barkers, what you hear about Americans is loud and obnoxious, but is one guy. In reality, most of us ignore politics. I am just as confident that based in my experience, antivaxxers are a mix of conspiracy theorists and hippy-dippy suburban mommies, all pretty apolitical. Anecdotal, yes, but consider our last election: one of the most contentious in history and a record turnout, yet over one in three of us couldn't be bothered. Of the ones who did drag their asses to the polls (or mailed in), many don't care a whit about politics except for that once in four year obligation. And even then, they vote inconsistently, hence the tight races.

We are not nearly the one dimensional political animals the forum treats us as.
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Old 20th August 2021, 04:39 PM   #165
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Just thought I'd drop this here for some to think about

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Old 20th August 2021, 05:57 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Just thought I'd drop this here for some to think about

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5bkjx6pzxu...hics.png?raw=1
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Old 20th August 2021, 06:44 PM   #167
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Just to address the "incarcerated and former felons cannot vote" claim/issue

All people with felony convictions are permanently disenfranchised.
Kentucky and Virginia

Some people with felony convictions cannot vote.
Arizona, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, Wyoming & Iowa

People with felony convictions can vote upon completion of sentence.
Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, New Mexico, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Georgia, North and South Carolina, Delaware and Virginia

People in prison and on parole cannot vote. All other people with criminal convictions, including people on probation, can vote.
New York and Connecticut

People in prison cannot vote. Everyone else can vote.
Oregon, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Hawaii.

Everyone has the right to vote.
Vermont and Maine

The idea that all convicted felons are forever disenfranchised from voting is false. Only two states do that.

Source: https://www.aclu.org/issues/voting-r...ement-laws-map
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Old 21st August 2021, 08:40 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Just thought I'd drop this here for some to think about

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5bkjx6pzxu...hics.png?raw=1
Interesting classifications. Never saw White Democrats and White Republicans as a demographic that needed to be called out specifically on a non-racial issue. I guess the graph-makers didn't think Black or Hispanic Democrats warranted equal graphing. Just weird. Other groupings tend to be single variable (except for Black adults and similar, but since no age ranges are represented below age 18 it's kind of needlessly superfluous).

All the way at the bottom are Uninsured under 65 yrs old. This is the group that, even more than White Republicans is resistant to vaccination, which as you lobbied earlier, is free, so their insured status means literally nothing. I wonder if uninsured people under 65 are evenly distributed across the socioeconomic scale, or if the Kaiser Family Foundation has some other distinction in mind?
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Old 21st August 2021, 08:52 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Just to address the "incarcerated and former felons cannot vote" claim/issue
Many cannot, as quite clearly explained. Hell, we had a whole thread about how Florida included outstanding fines included as reason for disenfranchisement. But it was never, by anyone, claimed that all and without exception, were not allowed to vote.

Quote:
The idea that all convicted felons are forever disenfranchised from voting is false.
Again, no one claims so. Are you responding in thread to some argument outside the thread?

Quote:
Only two states do that.
Only two do so wholesale. Looking at your sources, Wyoming for example, is listed as 'some felons'. Their actual criteria is that first time, nonviolent felons can petition to have their voting rights reinstated. All others are permanently denied barring a formal pardon.
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Old 21st August 2021, 04:33 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Many cannot, as quite clearly explained. Hell, we had a whole thread about how Florida included outstanding fines included as reason for disenfranchisement. But it was never, by anyone, claimed that all and without exception, were not allowed to vote.

Again, no one claims so. Are you responding in thread to some argument outside the thread?
You claimed it was a significant percentage of the population. IIRC, your claim was 7 to 15% in some states.

The information on that website clearly shows that is it not.

Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Only two do so wholesale. Looking at your sources, Wyoming for example, is listed as 'some felons'. Their actual criteria is that first time, nonviolent felons can petition to have their voting rights reinstated. All others are permanently denied barring a formal pardon.
And Wyoming is what, 0.2% of the US population?

There are currently 1.3m people incarcerated in the US. That is less than 0.4% of the US population. Given that 41 out of 50 states, including some of the most populous ones, allow former convicted felons to vote one way or another, I seriously doubt that the additional number of voters disenfranchised by being a formerly incarcerated felon is greater than another 0.4% and therefore statistically insignificant.
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Old 22nd August 2021, 08:56 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
You claimed it was a significant percentage of the population. IIRC, your claim was 7 to 15% in some states.

The information on that website clearly shows that is it not.
You recall incorrectly. I stated that people with a felony conviction, among others, were factored in the vaccination stats, but not in the voting turnout. Convicted felons are also about 8% of the US population, but not all are disenfrachised from voting. I cited two states only at the extreme: Florida, which I claimed was 10%, and turned out to be slightly more, and Louisiana at 15%, which has since had its system overhauled and is much better now.

Quote:
And Wyoming is what, 0.2% of the US population?
Fair enough. Are Florida's stats acceptable to you then? The third most populous state in the country, with nearly 10 1/2% of its voters disenfrachised from voting due to felony convictions? Maybe you noticed that the Sunshine State was somewhat significant last election? You could even ask VP Gore if Florida has a history of election significance, if you like.

Quote:
There are currently 1.3m people incarcerated in the US. That is less than 0.4% of the US population. Given that 41 out of 50 states, including some of the most populous ones, allow former convicted felons to vote one way or another, I seriously doubt that the additional number of voters disenfranchised by being a formerly incarcerated felon is greater than another 0.4% and therefore statistically insignificant.
Your incredulity about the rate being above 0.8% is irrelevant. I already cited Wikipedia's page, conveniently titled Felony Disenfranchisement in the United States, which shows a nationwide average more than triple your incredulous line in 2016, and estimates for 2020 about 1 in 44. Some of the country's more flagrant felony disenfranchisers:

Alabama, at 7.62%
Florida, at a whopping 10.43%
Kentucky, at 9.14%
Mississippi, at 9.63%
Tennessee, at 8.26%

By the way, notice anything else in common about those states related to voting?
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Old 22nd August 2021, 10:28 AM   #172
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Looks like even Trump can't get people to vaccinate. He held a rally in Alabama and the crowd booed him.
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Old 22nd August 2021, 11:17 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Looks like even Trump can't get people to vaccinate. He held a rally in Alabama and the crowd booed him.
I was just reminded in another thread never to underestimate the stupidity of people. This is a good example. Here are the idiots booing Trump (something I never thought I'd say) when he said to get the vaccine. Scroll down to the 6th video:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1429255690682572805

For added fun, watch the 5th video down where Trump is claiming a 5 year old gave him advice on Afghanistan. It's so obviously a lie, it's funny. But I'm sure these morons believe him cuz he never makes crap up, right?


Yee haw, Alabama!

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Old 22nd August 2021, 04:34 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Your incredulity about the rate being above 0.8% is irrelevant. I already cited Wikipedia's page, conveniently titled Felony Disenfranchisement in the United States, which shows a nationwide average more than triple your incredulous line in 2016, and estimates for 2020 about 1 in 44. Some of the country's more flagrant felony disenfranchisers:

Alabama, at 7.62%
Florida, at a whopping 10.43%
Kentucky, at 9.14%
Mississippi, at 9.63%
Tennessee, at 8.26%

By the way, notice anything else in common about those states related to voting?
This is nothing to do with incredulity, its just clear and obvious - the numbers don't lie. Even 10% is still insignificant in the big picture, nationally, it is 2.47 % (from the source you quoted)

Yes, I'm well aware that those states are near the bottom of the vaccination rate list, but prisoner disenfranchisement has little if anything to do with that. The numbers are just not big enough to have any meaningful effect.

Note the following states are also near the bottom

Idaho 1.89% and below the national average
North Carolina 1.18% and below the national average
Arkansas 2.93% and just above the national average
West Virginia 1.01% and below the national average
Oklahoma 1.98% and below the national average

Note also that Virginia with 7.89% and three times the national average, is in the top group.

If 1 in 10 potential voters cannot vote but the other 9 out of 10 can, the percentages are all but are unchanged... and here is a simple example of why that is

Say 100 people vote - 60 vote red, 40 vote blue so 60% voted red and 40% voted blue

Now subtract 10 people who are disenfranchised from voting, and we'll assume a 50/50 split between them, i.e. 5 would have voted red and 5 blue or they would not have voted at all anyway.

90 people voted - 55 voted red, 35 voted blue. That is 61% red, 39% blue

10% disenfranchisement (the MOST extreme case) only made 1% difference to each party's vote.

Like I said, the felony disenfranchisement figures are insignificant.
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Last edited by smartcooky; 22nd August 2021 at 05:12 PM.
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Old 22nd August 2021, 04:42 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
This is nothing to do with incredulity, its just clear and obvious - the numbers don't lie. Even 10% is still insignificant in the big picture, nationally, it is 2.47 % (from the source you quoted)

Yes, I'm aware that those states are near the bottom of the of the vaccination rate list, but prisoner disenfranchisement has little if anything to do with that. The numbers are just not big enough to have any meaningful effect. If in 10 potential voters cannot vote but the other 9 out of 10 can, the percentages are all but are unchanged... and here is a simple example of why that is

Say 100 people vote - 60 vote red, 40 vote blue so 60% voted red and 40% voted blue

Now subtract 10 people who are disenfranchised from voting, and we'll assume a 50/50 split between them, i.e. 5 would have voted red and 5 blue,so

90 people voted - 55 voted red, 35 voted blue. That is 61% red, 39% blue

10% of disenfranchisement (the MOST extreme case) only made 1% difference to each party's vote.

Like I said, the felony disenfranchisement figures are insignificant.
I'm not sure it's insignificant but i do think its impact is exaggerated. I think we should end felony disenfranchisement because I believe it is important to welcome people into the community.

Great discussion, but this thread isn't about voter suppression or disenfranchisement.
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Old 22nd August 2021, 05:23 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
"Excuses" and "reasons" are two different things. That you use "excuse" reveals exactly what I suspected: you want to blame Black people themselves for their vaccine hesitancy. Not surprising. Because they have no reason to distrust the government, right?

You sound just like this guy from the conservative Washington Examiner:



Interesting use of the words "pushed" and "infected" and the popular right wing accusations of higher education, the media, entertainment industry being the problem.



Oh, my....telling them that the system is racist is what did it, huh? They didn't feel that way BEFORE from their own centuries of experience! How totally patronizing of the author. And stupid. But so typical.
Also very specifically with medicine.

After being used as mice for a couple centuries it’s kinda understandable to not trust the white guy in a lab-coat.
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Old 22nd August 2021, 05:36 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'm not sure it's insignificant but i do think its impact is exaggerated. I think we should end felony disenfranchisement because I believe it is important to welcome people into the community.

Great discussion, but this thread isn't about voter suppression or disenfranchisement.
But it has to be if you think the politicization of mask-wearing and the pandemic has been influential in the way people vote. I believe it has been - you only have to look at a few easily researched things to see this

Who is opposing the wearing of masks?
Who is messaging against mask wearing?
Who is pushing the falsehood that Covid-19 is a hoax?
Who is discouraging vaccination?

It is clear and obvious that Republican politicians (and their media mouthpieces) are the ones doing all the anti-science messaging above, while Democrat politicians (and their media mouthpieces) have been doing the pro-science messaging.

It is clear and obvious that the biggest driver of people NOT getting vaccinated is Republican messaging on the pandemic, and that Democrat messaging has been encouraging people to get vaccinated.

It is clear and obvious that this messaging is influencing their supporters to vote for them, and to follow their messaging.

It is clear and obvious that the result of all the above is Republican voters have the lowest rate of vaccination, and that Democrat voters have the highest rate.

It is clear and obvious the number one; the biggest single reason why Republican states have the lowest vaccination rates, and the Democrat states have the highest, is all of the above politicization and messaging. Sure there are other minor contributors; voter disenfranchisement, undocumented immigrants, economic etc, but they are minor drivers - bit part players. The biggest is what is being incessantly blasted across the airwaves via radio, television and in cyberspace.

To deny this is to deny the overwhelming evidence.
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Last edited by smartcooky; 22nd August 2021 at 05:38 PM.
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Old 22nd August 2021, 06:33 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
This is nothing to do with incredulity, its just clear and obvious - the numbers don't lie. Even 10% is still insignificant in the big picture, nationally, it is 2.47 % (from the source you quoted)

Yes, I'm well aware that those states are near the bottom of the vaccination rate list, but prisoner disenfranchisement has little if anything to do with that. The numbers are just not big enough to have any meaningful effect.

Note the following states are also near the bottom

Idaho 1.89% and below the national average
North Carolina 1.18% and below the national average
Arkansas 2.93% and just above the national average
West Virginia 1.01% and below the national average
Oklahoma 1.98% and below the national average

Note also that Virginia with 7.89% and three times the national average, is in the top group.

If 1 in 10 potential voters cannot vote but the other 9 out of 10 can, the percentages are all but are unchanged... and here is a simple example of why that is

Say 100 people vote - 60 vote red, 40 vote blue so 60% voted red and 40% voted blue

Now subtract 10 people who are disenfranchised from voting, and we'll assume a 50/50 split between them, i.e. 5 would have voted red and 5 blue or they would not have voted at all anyway.

90 people voted - 55 voted red, 35 voted blue. That is 61% red, 39% blue

10% disenfranchisement (the MOST extreme case) only made 1% difference to each party's vote.

Like I said, the felony disenfranchisement figures are insignificant.
Yet again, you're playing fast and loose with the population, ignoring the third who didn't vote. Sticking with Florida: say just over 1/3 couldn't be bothered to vote. That's 34 out of your representative 100. Florida's vote was won 51%-48%, so that's about 34 out of 100 eligible voters going R, and 32 going D. (Do you see what I mean about a small percentage that you treat the whole state as now?)

Disenfranchised felons are a percentage of the entire state, so calling them 10% means 10 voters. While white populations are split pretty evenly, prisons are disproportionately black, and blacks vote overwhelmingly democratic (north of 80% by most surveys).

So if the actual felon vote is more like 70% D, 30%R, and were they able to vote, it would have been 37/100R and 39/100 D. Florida would have solidly flipped, and won by a larger margin than the Rs actually did. Even if my estimates are high, it would have been closer but still flipped.

But as acbytesla said, that's not the issue here. The issue is how heavily we should take politics as a barometer of the population. As I showed above, Florida being red reflects about 34% of its population, of which many haven't drunk the Kool aid and vote R without buying into the extremism. The political correlation is based on a very small group, easily matched by its opposite number, the IDGAF contingent, and the many, many ineligible voters who are nonetheless factored into vaccination rates. The correlation of that third of the population against the entire population is sloppy.
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Old 22nd August 2021, 10:34 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Yet again, you're playing fast and loose with the population, ignoring the third who didn't vote.

Sticking with Florida: say just over 1/3 couldn't be bothered to vote. That's 34 out of your representative 100. Florida's vote was won 51%-48%, so that's about 34 out of 100 eligible voters going R, and 32 going D. (Do you see what I mean about a small percentage that you treat the whole state as now?)
I have statistically accounted for all of this by showing that those who didn't vote still consume their preferred media and still have a political point of view, and they will act accordingly. You only have to look at a 538 poll to see that polls taken from registered voters and unregistered votes have largely the same results, with in .1 to .3%.

As long as you refuse to accept the above then we are going to go nowhere and might as well not bother continuing because we are so far apart we will never agree.
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Old 22nd August 2021, 10:55 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Just to address the "incarcerated and former felons cannot vote" claim/issue

All people with felony convictions are permanently disenfranchised.
Kentucky and Virginia

Some people with felony convictions cannot vote.
Arizona, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, Wyoming & Iowa

People with felony convictions can vote upon completion of sentence.
Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, New Mexico, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Georgia, North and South Carolina, Delaware and Virginia

People in prison and on parole cannot vote. All other people with criminal convictions, including people on probation, can vote.
New York and Connecticut

People in prison cannot vote. Everyone else can vote.
Oregon, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Hawaii.

Everyone has the right to vote.
Vermont and Maine

The idea that all convicted felons are forever disenfranchised from voting is false. Only two states do that.

Source: https://www.aclu.org/issues/voting-r...ement-laws-map
For a recent update, the governor of Virginia has a program using his own authority to restore voting rights to felons who have completed completed their sentences. There's a move to for a state constitutional amendment to make the restoration automatic. That will take longer but the governor is restoring voting rights to former felons who apply.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 04:30 AM   #181
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I think the mood in here needs a little lightening.

A friend of mine in the US sent me this.... she is a nurse in one of the Covid wards in a hospital in a major Virginia city.

I have to agree with the sentiment

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Old 23rd August 2021, 05:19 AM   #182
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I am privately downloading every day and analyzing data from Worldometers.

Here is the trend I have seen lately, between Republican- and Democratic-dominated states:

Last week (August 15-22),
  • Republican states saw 2.3 times as many new infections per 1 million population as Democratic states (4,554/mio vs 1,941/mio)
  • Republican states suffered 3.3 times as many new deaths per 1 million population as Democratic states (33.33/mio vs 10.15/mio)
  • Raw Case Mortality Rate (new deaths divided by new cases) is 0.73% in Republican states, 0.52% in Democratic states - a factor of 1.4 between them
  • Ranking all states, including DC and Puerto Rico, by new infections per million, the first (worst) 14 are all Republican (lead by Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida); the last (best) 14 are all Democratic
  • Ranking all states, including DC and Puerto Rico, by new deaths per million, 13 of the 15 worst are Republican, 10 of the worst 15 are Democratic

This pattern has held ever since the end of the winter/spring waves. During the big winter waves, when vaccination programs had only just begun, the difference between R and D states wasn't as pronounced.

I have to be a bit careful whether this split is wholly attributable to politics: The 9 states with the highest new infection rates are all in the Southeast (and are all Republican). The eight best are all in the Northeast, and all D. So climate or mere geographic may contribute some of the effect.

The numbers are surely significant, even if, overall, raw case mortality rates have come down and there are fewer new cases still than there were November through January: almost 7,000 new deaths in one week. That's more than two 9/11's. Had Republican states the same rate of Covid Deaths as Democratic states, 3,650 people would not have died. Democratic states were by far the hardest hit in the first wave, spring of 2020, and the high death rates back then dominated overall deaths ever since, but about a week ago, Republican states finally passed Democratic ones in terms of total deaths per population.

I think there can be no serious doubt that Republican politics (and media) are responsible for a very significant proportion of Covid cases and deaths today.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 05:27 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I am privately downloading every day and analyzing data from Worldometers.

Here is the trend I have seen lately, between Republican- and Democratic-dominated states:

Last week (August 15-22),
  • Republican states saw 2.3 times as many new infections per 1 million population as Democratic states (4,554/mio vs 1,941/mio)
  • Republican states suffered 3.3 times as many new deaths per 1 million population as Democratic states (33.33/mio vs 10.15/mio)
  • Raw Case Mortality Rate (new deaths divided by new cases) is 0.73% in Republican states, 0.52% in Democratic states - a factor of 1.4 between them
  • Ranking all states, including DC and Puerto Rico, by new infections per million, the first (worst) 14 are all Republican (lead by Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida); the last (best) 14 are all Democratic
  • Ranking all states, including DC and Puerto Rico, by new deaths per million, 13 of the 15 worst are Republican, 10 of the worst 15 are Democratic

This pattern has held ever since the end of the winter/spring waves. During the big winter waves, when vaccination programs had only just begun, the difference between R and D states wasn't as pronounced.

I have to be a bit careful whether this split is wholly attributable to politics: The 9 states with the highest new infection rates are all in the Southeast (and are all Republican). The eight best are all in the Northeast, and all D. So climate or mere geographic may contribute some of the effect.

The numbers are surely significant, even if, overall, raw case mortality rates have come down and there are fewer new cases still than there were November through January: almost 7,000 new deaths in one week. That's more than two 9/11's. Had Republican states the same rate of Covid Deaths as Democratic states, 3,650 people would not have died. Democratic states were by far the hardest hit in the first wave, spring of 2020, and the high death rates back then dominated overall deaths ever since, but about a week ago, Republican states finally passed Democratic ones in terms of total deaths per population.

I think there can be no serious doubt that Republican politics (and media) are responsible for a very significant proportion of Covid cases and deaths today.
100%

But of course, it has nothing whatever to do with vaccination rates does it
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Old 23rd August 2021, 05:33 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
100%

But of course, it has nothing whatever to do with vaccination rates does it
It's the whole pot of toxic, deadly Republican politics, the full arsenal of anti-science measures, from no masks to no vaccinations, from leaving the poor behind and uninsured to open racism.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 06:34 AM   #185
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Quote:
Ranking all states, including DC and Puerto Rico, by new deaths per million, 13 of the 15 worst are Republican, 10 of the worst best 15 are Democratic
FTFY
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Old 23rd August 2021, 07:28 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I have statistically accounted for all of this by showing that those who didn't vote still consume their preferred media and still have a political point of view, and they will act accordingly. You only have to look at a 538 poll to see that polls taken from registered voters and unregistered votes have largely the same results, with in .1 to .3%.
Exactly. Among the voters, you can extrapolate political leanings by way of representative polling. Among those who did not vote, the assumption has to be that they are too far removed from that bichromatic rainbow of political thought you so champion that they do not even participate.

Serious question: is your breakdown of political thinking so simple that you literally think there are only two possibilities?

As I have noted, not even all Republicans buy into the antivaxx extremism. They are a much smaller group than you assume. Take for example Stacyhs' recent Twitter vids. Ex-President Trump himself, the Crown Prince of antivax, encourages his subjects to get jabbed, and they boo him. Think about that; it falls right in line with my thinking, and is totally at odds with yours. The antivaxx base distrusts government, not follows Republican extremist views. Importantly, there is certainly some overlap, hence the observable correlations. But you assume it is fueled by politics, and I assume fueled by anti-government sentiment. As we see, the crowd booing Trump at his own rally. They are rejecting the political angle from their own leader.

Florida remains a great example. Nearly a dead even split, vote wise, but performing woefully on vac rates. What happened to all those voting Dems? Did they say "Oh well, our State just barely went red, so now we have to drink the antivaxx Kool aid?

Quote:
As long as you refuse to accept the above then we are going to go nowhere and might as well not bother continuing because we are so far apart we will never agree.
Agreed. As long as you believe an American can only be a rabid Republican or Democrat, our base assumptions are too disparate to constructively argue. See ya on the next one.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 09:25 AM   #187
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There are a lot of factors in who gets vaccinated and who doesn't. The Google listing (and others) shows Florida ranks about in the middle with about half the population fully vaccinated and 60% having received at least one vaccination. That's about the national average. The goal was to hit 70% by July 4th but we still have a way to go.

How do you draw broad brush inferences about Florida without having anything more than raw numbers? Health officials say that counties in the state where the majority voted for trump have lower vaccination rates than counties Biden carried. Look at the map below, from a New York State newspaper. Some of the heavily Democrat-leaning counties are over 70% vaccinated. Northern Florida and the Panhandle, a trump stronghold, have a much lower rate, almost entirely under 50%.

By the way, I saw the video of trump speaking in Alabama the other night, urging the crowd to get vaccinated. There was booing but it was scattered. I think most of his supporters just let his comments go in one ear and out the other.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 11:46 AM   #188
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"I think most of his supporters just let his comments go in one ear and out the other."

If only they would! Unfortunately, I don't think they do.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 02:51 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
There are a lot of factors in who gets vaccinated and who doesn't. The Google listing (and others) shows Florida ranks about in the middle with about half the population fully vaccinated and 60% having received at least one vaccination. That's about the national average. The goal was to hit 70% by July 4th but we still have a way to go.

How do you draw broad brush inferences about Florida without having anything more than raw numbers? Health officials say that counties in the state where the majority voted for trump have lower vaccination rates than counties Biden carried. Look at the map below, from a New York State newspaper. Some of the heavily Democrat-leaning counties are over 70% vaccinated. Northern Florida and the Panhandle, a trump stronghold, have a much lower rate, almost entirely under 50%.

By the way, I saw the video of trump speaking in Alabama the other night, urging the crowd to get vaccinated. There was booing but it was scattered. I think most of his supporters just let his comments go in one ear and out the other.
Well, theres certainly not much to acoustically interfere.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 04:30 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Exactly. Among the voters, you can extrapolate political leanings by way of representative polling. Among those who did not vote, the assumption has to be that they are too far removed from that bichromatic rainbow of political thought you so champion that they do not even participate.
You can also extrapolate that to non voters. Statisticians do this accurately ALL THE TIME!!! As long as you continue to reject this fact, you are never gong to understand.

Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Serious question: is your breakdown of political thinking so simple that you literally think there are only two possibilities?
There are only two possibilities. Either they are registered to vote or they are not. They can't be both, they can't be neither, and there is no third alternative.

Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
As I have noted, not even all Republicans buy into the antivaxx extremism. They are a much smaller group than you assume.
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
The antivaxx base distrusts government, not follows Republican extremist views. Importantly, there is certainly some overlap, hence the observable correlations.
You are making the mistake of confusing two different issues/groups here.

Anti-vaxx extremists ARE a very small group driven mostly by anti-government sentiment, but they are a distraction; they are not germane to topic of this thread.. We are talking about Republicans specifically NOT getting the Covid-19 vaccine, that is a different, much larger group of people. They ARE driven by politics, and it is their politics that is driving the resurgence of Covid-19.

Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Take for example Stacyhs' recent Twitter vids. Ex-President Trump himself, the Crown Prince of antivax, encourages his subjects to get jabbed, and they boo him. Think about that; it falls right in line with my thinking, and is totally at odds with yours.
Actually the opposite is true.

You are aware that Trump still has huge support among Republicans, right?

• Two-thirds of Republicans also say that the Republican Party is heading in the right direction.
• Two-thirds say that Biden did not win the 2020 presidential election legitimately.
• Two-thirds also say that they want Trump to run for president again in 2024.

That is hardly a small group.

Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
But you assume it is fueled by politics, and I assume fueled by anti-government sentiment.
I'm not assuming anything, I am going by observable facts.



This survey was conducted among ALL Americans, not just those who voted!!!

If refusal to get vaccinated is as tiny a group as you claim, then

1. How do you explain the observable, verifiable fact that there is a much lower vaccination rate among ALL Republicans than there is there is among Democrats

2. How do you explain the observable, verifiable fact that over 20% of ALL Republicans say they will refuse to EVER get vaccinated?

Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
As we see, the crowd booing Trump at his own rally. They are rejecting the political angle from their own leader.
Exactly. You just said it! But you still just don't get it!

"People occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Winston Churchill

Messaging! messaging! messaging!

You are either handwaving away the important part... THE MESSAGING, or you are totally under-estimating its importance. Information is King (and unfortunately so are disinformation and misinformation.)

Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Florida remains a great example. Nearly a dead even split, vote wise, but performing woefully on vac rates. What happened to all those voting Dems? Did they say "Oh well, our State just barely went red, so now we have to drink the antivaxx Kool aid?
This has already been explained to you numerous times.

If half the state are red and, say only 20% get vaccinated, and the other half are blue, and say 60% get vaccinated, the overall vaccination rate for that state is

P % Rate
R 20% of 50% 10%
B 60% of 50% 30%
so  
Vacc rate  = 40%

Yes, Florida can perform badly even with a near 50/50 red/blue split
No, Democrats don't need to drink any KoolAid for this to happen

Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Agreed. As long as you believe an American can only be a rabid Republican or Democrat, our base assumptions are too disparate to constructively argue. See ya on the next one.
Again, you are either forgetting, dismissing or not giving enough importance to the effect of the messaging coming from the media and the politicians themselves.

Regardless of whether people are "rabid Republican or Democrat", or Independent, or Green or even politically unaware, then unless they have spent the last year to 18 months living under a flat stone or locked in the dark in a basement somewhere, they MUST be aware of what has been happening in the world, and they MUST be hearing the messaging one way or another, and that messaging MUST be having an impact on them, and it will be having a big impact. Its even starting to have some impact HERE in this country, with anti-vaxxer, anti-lockdown morons starting to quote Newsmax, and Faux News' Tucker Carlson's idiocy.
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Old 23rd August 2021, 08:27 PM   #191
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Worth watching this if the subject of vaccine misinformation interests you.

11:30m

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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Old 24th August 2021, 08:22 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
To support Thermal's proposition, it's the fools in the populace who elected the leader to misguide them. So it still comes down to the people as a mass. Which is why I keep annoying folk when I contend that a People gets the government it deserves.

If it's impossible to educate and socialize a populace of history-aware critical thinkers of sufficient number to serve as a bulwark against the kind of mass insanity that would bring to power a Trump, then that society is in trouble. Even widespread disaffection that leads to the nihilistic desire to burn it all down is no excuse, for history tells us where that leads.
This is a philosophical platitude. I don't disagree, but I don't know what to do with it personally, on a practical level.
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Old 24th August 2021, 10:06 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
This is a philosophical platitude. I don't disagree, but I don't know what to do with it personally, on a practical level.
The Republican leaders are not hypnotizing their rabble base. The people are supporting what they believe/want to hear. That's why I don't blame the mouthpieces so much as the earpieces. You have to willingly buy into the party line.
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Old 24th August 2021, 10:42 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
The Republican leaders are not hypnotizing their rabble base. The people are supporting what they believe/want to hear. That's why I don't blame the mouthpieces so much as the earpieces. You have to willingly buy into the party line.
While I do agree that they buy into the party line, the earpieces wouldn't have much to hear or reinforce if the mouthpieces weren't spewing it in the first place.
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Old 24th August 2021, 11:18 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
While I do agree that they buy into the party line, the earpieces wouldn't have much to hear or reinforce if the mouthpieces weren't spewing it in the first place.
Well...okay, agreed. There surely comes a point where they regurgitate almost anything without thought in the name of contrarianism/ loyalty.
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Old 24th August 2021, 11:26 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
Well...okay, agreed. There surely comes a point where they regurgitate almost anything without thought in the name of contrarianism/ loyalty.
Absolutely. A classic example is a video by Jordan Klepper where several Trump supporters kept repeating the "Just read the transcript"* Trump defense line and then admitted they'd never read it.

*Transcript of the phone call between Trump and Zelensky.
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Old 24th August 2021, 11:46 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
The Republican leaders are not hypnotizing their rabble base. The people are supporting what they believe/want to hear. That's why I don't blame the mouthpieces so much as the earpieces. You have to willingly buy into the party line.
Not me. I blame the mouthpieces. The earpieces only believe that because the mouthpieces are so gutless and selfish they won't correct them and tell them the truth.
The truth isn't supposed to be malleable.
That you don't like the truth is your problem. And I mean problem.
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Old 24th August 2021, 03:22 PM   #198
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The anti-maskers are becoming violent: a parent beat up a teacher that required getting stitches.

Quote:
A California elementary School teacher was allegedly assaulted by a parent Wednesday during an argument over their child having to wear a mask.

The incident happened on the Sutter Creek Elementary campus, about an hour after the first day of school came to a close in the Amador County town.

“The teacher was bleeding,” Amador County Unified School District Superintendent Torie Gibson told NBC affiliate KCRA. “He had some lacerations on his face, some bruising on his face, and a pretty good knot on the back of his head.”

Gibson said the male parent verbally assaulted the school’s principal when his daughter walked out of a school building wearing a mask. When a male teacher stepped in, the situation escalated and a physical altercation happened, resulting in injuries. The teacher was treated at the hospital and released Wednesday night.

According to Gibson, the parent was frustrated with the school’s indoor mask requirement for everyone while students are on campus. The district’s policy also says teachers who have proved they are fully vaccinated can take off their mask indoors when students are not present. The district’s policy is in line with the indoor mask mandate by the state health department.
https://www.wsls.com/news/2021/08/17...entary-school/

Meanwhile, in TX:

Quote:
Parents in one Texas district ripped off a teacher's face mask and demanded another educator remove hers, according to the school system's superintendent.
Quote:
But in the days leading up to the first day of school, which is Wednesday in the Austin district, some parents have been attacking teachers, he said.

"A parent physically assaulted a teacher by ripping a mask off her face, others yelling at a teacher to take off her mask because they could not understand what the teacher was saying while her face was covered," Leonard wrote. "Our staff are on the front lines of this pandemic; let’s give them some space and grace. Please, I am asking everyone to be kind ... do not fight mask wars in our schools."
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...-says-n1277057

Elsewhere:

Quote:
PHOENIX -- Across the country, anti-vaccine and anti-mask demonstrations are taking scary and violent turns. People have been stabbed, punched or harassed at their homes for being in favor of vaccine and mask mandates. Often the assailants are parents.

Educators, medical professionals and public figures have been stunned at the level at which they have been vilified for even stating their opinions. And they have been terrified over how far protesters will go in confronting leaders outside their homes and in their workplaces.
PHOENIX -- Across the country, anti-vaccine and anti-mask demonstrations are taking scary and violent turns. People have been stabbed, punched or harassed at their homes for being in favor of vaccine and mask mandates. Often the assailants are parents.

Educators, medical professionals and public figures have been stunned at the level at which they have been vilified for even stating their opinions. And they have been terrified over how far protesters will go in confronting leaders outside their homes and in their workplaces.

In Hawaii, the Lt. Gov. and his family have been harassed by protestors at their condo home. The protestors have used bullhorns and strobe lights shining into homes.


Deplorables, indeed.
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Old 24th August 2021, 03:49 PM   #199
Stacyhs
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The country is now averaging 150,000+ new cases and 1,000 deaths per day from Covid.

But thank God I've got mah freeeeeeeedoms from wearing a mask!
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Old 24th August 2021, 04:13 PM   #200
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Idiots like the people in this video :

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...tail&FORM=VIRE

The "GOd is suing Covid to seperate the Sheep from the Goats " is just classic.
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