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Tags Coronavirus

View Poll Results: Who do you blame?
Trump. He should have at least done a PSA encouraging people to get vaccinated. 42 37.84%
Right wing media for almost embracing an anti-vax sentiment 67 60.36%
Republican Governors particularly Desantis and Abbott 50 45.05%
Internet know it alls that don't actually. 30 27.03%
The Republican party for trying to be as crazy as Trump. 52 46.85%
Joe Biden for not being persuasive enough 3 2.70%
The Democrats because shouldn't we blame them? 3 2.70%
The public for being just too stupid. 59 53.15%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 111. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 27th August 2021, 06:15 PM   #241
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I just remember going to the gymnasium in elementary school and getting shots. I remember a big measles scare. I have the scar that looks like a dime size blemish on my upper arm. For the life of me I had no idea what vaccines we were getting.

My parents didn't mess around with that stuff. If the Public Health department said a vaccine was recommended we would get the vaccine. They grew up during the Depression and WW2. My father lost multiple siblings to a meningitis outbreak.
That's a smallpox vaccination scar.
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Old 27th August 2021, 06:19 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I just remember going to the gymnasium in elementary school and getting shots. I remember a big measles scare. I have the scar that looks like a dime size blemish on my upper arm. For the life of me I had no idea what vaccines we were getting.

My parents didn't mess around with that stuff. If the Public Health department said a vaccine was recommended we would get the vaccine. They grew up during the Depression and WW2. My father lost multiple siblings to a meningitis outbreak.

The dime sized blemish will be smallpox vaccine

The polio vacine would have likely have been administered orally in a little paper cup like these
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Old 27th August 2021, 06:42 PM   #243
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I wish there were Sabin-type cubes for COVID-19 or seasonal influenza for that matter...
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Old 27th August 2021, 07:28 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3f674i3t0u...Scar.jpg?raw=1
The dime sized blemish will be smallpox vaccine

The polio vacine would have likely have been administered orally in a little paper cup like these
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ak9kjci3ac...Cups.jpg?raw=1
I don't remember the polio cups. But that doesn't mean we didnt get that.

The shots were more traumatic for a lot of the kids. I remember being scared and putting on a brave face, but I remember kids crying waiting for their shots and after.
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Old 28th August 2021, 01:54 AM   #245
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Here is some information for anyone who still mistakenly believes that politics and messaging are not the primary drivers of Covid vaccine hesitancy.. from The Economist

https://www.economist.com/united-sta...gainst-the-jab
According to our modelling, the single greatest predictor of whether an American has been vaccinated is whether they voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump last November. Relative to the profile for the average American—a white, 49-year-old female with some college education who earns a middle-class income, lives in a Midwestern suburb and did not vote in 2020—the impact of voting for Mr Trump is a 13 percentage-point reduction in vaccine probability. Holding everything else equal, Mr Biden’s supporters were 18 points likelier to get their jabs. Whether someone was a self-proclaimed conservative or liberal ranked second.
So the Biggest drivers are politics and messaging. The others, economics and urban/rural locale also ran

Prominent conservative television hosts, such as Fox News’s Sean Hannity, made a spectacle of endorsing the covid-19 vaccine last week. Yet according to YouGov’s most recent poll, conducted on July 24th-27th, the share of Republican adults who say they will not get the jab has held steady at 30%. The phase of the pandemic where Americans would listen to such messaging might well be over. After all, they have been seeing adverts about jabs for months. Instead of focusing on partisans, public-health policy could be designed to increase access for poor and rural Americans, and focus on outreach and information-dissemination for the uneducated.


In other words, its probably too late to change the minds of most Trump supporting morons, so best to spend the messaging on getting to people they have a better chance if convincing to get the vaccination.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:29 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
...The shots were more traumatic for a lot of the kids. I remember being scared and putting on a brave face, but I remember kids crying waiting for their shots and after.
I have been reading comments like this here for a while. I have to say, at least in my elementary school, it was a different scenario. I remember kids joking around while standing in line, paying little attention to the nurse at the head of the line or what she was doing. Once you got your shot, which I can't remember anything about, it was get back on line and wait for everyone to be done and go back to the classroom. Kids smirking:
  • "Hey Tony, it'll take more than one shot to make you normal."
  • "Hey is that hair on his palms?"
  • "Keep talking and you're gonna find out."

I don't remember anyone crying, or any drama like that at all.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:44 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Total nonsense.

ETA: This isn't horse and buggy days. People who live on farms aren't living in the 1800's; they have trucks/cars. Getting to a pharmacy or a vaccination center isn't that difficult and the vaccine is readily available upon walk ins. If they aren't vaccinated by now, it's because they choose not to be.
A bit of a late reply, but... I believe there are a number of Mennonite/Amish settlements still. Though I don't know what their attitude to vaccination is.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:56 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by SteveAitch View Post
A bit of a late reply, but... I believe there are a number of Mennonite/Amish settlements still. Though I don't know what their attitude to vaccination is.
No worries Steve, God will protect them

https://news.yahoo.com/amish-communi...041428351.html
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Last edited by smartcooky; 28th August 2021 at 03:58 AM.
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Old 28th August 2021, 05:24 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
No worries Steve, God will protect them

https://news.yahoo.com/amish-communi...041428351.html
Well, possibly, but they do interact a bit with the general population - running markets, going into the nearest town for things they can't produce for themselves - so could catch/spread it. Doesn't bode well for their numbers.
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Old 28th August 2021, 10:46 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
I have been reading comments like this here for a while. I have to say, at least in my elementary school, it was a different scenario. I remember kids joking around while standing in line, paying little attention to the nurse at the head of the line or what she was doing. Once you got your shot, which I can't remember anything about, it was get back on line and wait for everyone to be done and go back to the classroom. Kids smirking:
  • "Hey Tony, it'll take more than one shot to make you normal."
  • "Hey is that hair on his palms?"
  • "Keep talking and you're gonna find out."

I don't remember anyone crying, or any drama like that at all.
That was most of the kids. Including me, but frankly I remember being scared on the inside. Scared of it hurting and even more afraid of showing that. But we had two kids in my class bawling. .
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Old 28th August 2021, 10:51 AM   #251
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Originally Posted by SteveAitch View Post
Well, possibly, but they do interact a bit with the general population - running markets, going into the nearest town for things they can't produce for themselves - so could catch/spread it. Doesn't bode well for their numbers.
COVID is becoming a big problem for the Amish not necessarily because of their religion but because their attitudes towards it are mirroring their rural neighbors.
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Old 28th August 2021, 01:09 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
So the Biggest drivers are politics and messaging. The others, economics and urban/rural locale also ran...
The Biden/Trump variable used in the Economist model applies to only 155,506,056 Americans, which is fewer than half of the 331 million people living here. If I wanted to build an econometric model to predict vaccination uptake, I'd use variables which apply to most of the relevant population, e.g. zip code, household income, ethnicity, etc.
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Old 28th August 2021, 01:43 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
The Biden/Trump variable used in the Economist model applies to only 155,506,056 Americans, which is fewer than half of the 331 million people living here. If I wanted to build an econometric model to predict vaccination uptake, I'd use variables which apply to most of the relevant population, e.g. zip code, household income, ethnicity, etc.
Nowhere in the article you cited did it say that.

What it did say;
Quote:
Since vaccinations have stalled at around 155m adults, or 60% of the population aged 18 or over, few if any parts of the country have reached herd immunity.
It also said this.

Quote:
According to our modelling, the single greatest predictor of whether an American has been vaccinated is whether they voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump last November.
Some of us can read.
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Old 28th August 2021, 01:45 PM   #254
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Some of us can read.
The article says "whether they voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump last November" is a variable, right? Now add up those votes.
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Old 28th August 2021, 01:50 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
The article says "whether they voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump last November" is a variable, right? Now add up those votes.
Fair enough.

Still do you have any idea how telling this is?

That the vaccination maps are close to a perfect replication of voting patterns demonstrates just how accurate their conclusions were.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:06 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
The Biden/Trump variable used in the Economist model applies to only 155,506,056 Americans, which is fewer than half of the 331 million people living here. If I wanted to build an econometric model to predict vaccination uptake, I'd use variables which apply to most of the relevant population, e.g. zip code, household income, ethnicity, etc.
Please don't make be have to explain the concept of "margin for error" and "extrapolation" to you as well.

Read back through the thread, this has already be explained.
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Last edited by smartcooky; 28th August 2021 at 03:08 PM.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:19 PM   #257
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Looks as though Hurricane Ida is going to hit Louisiana, a state with a bad Covid surge, head on.
Going to be very,very, grim.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:31 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Looks as though Hurricane Ida is going to hit Louisiana, a state with a bad Covid surge, head on.
Going to be very,very, grim.
Are they on the same grid as Texas.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:36 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Looks as though Hurricane Ida is going to hit Louisiana, a state with a bad Covid surge, head on.
Going to be very,very, grim.
LA has almost no ICU beds available before Ida hits. Thanks, unvaccinated!
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:42 PM   #260
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
LA has almost no ICU beds available before Ida hits. Thanks, unvaccinated!
The staff and management of some of those hospitals where they are having to deal with unvaccinated morons with Covid must be crapping themselves at the thought of having an unexpected major disaster happeng in their town, say, a bus crash, a train wreck, a major freeway pile up, or even an earthquake.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:46 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
The staff and management of some of those hospitals where they are having to deal with unvaccinated morons with Covid must be crapping themselves at the thought of having an unexpected major disaster happeng in their town, say, a bus crash, a train wreck, a major freeway pile up, or even an earthquake.
Except for the Earthquake, all the disasters you listed are not anywhere near in the same class of severity as a Hurricane.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:46 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
Are they on the same grid as Texas.
Partly, and part of Mexico is as well.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:47 PM   #263
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I got a feeling the alert has already gone out for US military Mobile Hospital units to be ready to deploy on a moment's notice. And the commanders are already looking at maps of The Pelican State for possible locations.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:49 PM   #264
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But not to worry, all Biden has to do is nuke the Hurricane.......
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:49 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Except for the Earthquake, all the disasters you listed are not anywhere near in the same class of severity as a Hurricane.
True, but even those others could bring anywhere from 30 to 100 people or more needing immediate, urgent, life-saving medical care to a maxed out hospital with no capacity to take them.
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Old 28th August 2021, 04:15 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Please don't make be have to explain the concept of "margin for error" and "extrapolation" to you as well.
I'd be interested to see how you extrapolate from those who expressed a preference between Biden and Trump (by casting a vote) to those who did not do so.
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Old 28th August 2021, 05:16 PM   #267
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Let's subtract 60 million more from that 335 million Americans right off since that is the population of Americans under 15.

This argument is silly. It reminds me of the people who argue that radiometric dating doesn't work.
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Old 28th August 2021, 05:22 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
But not to worry, all Biden has to do is nuke the Hurricane.......
Or, he could just not hire a guy named Brownie to coordinate recuse and relief efforts.
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Old 28th August 2021, 06:12 PM   #269
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Back in June, Sen. Ron Johnson, imbécile incroyable, was suspended from YouTube for a week for pushing ivermectin misinformation.

This video gives a good analysis about the ivermectin controversy and why studies on it are not conclusive.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/954681
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Old 28th August 2021, 06:40 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I'd be interested to see how you extrapolate from those who expressed a preference between Biden and Trump (by casting a vote) to those who did not do so.
Statistics.

Here's a primer for you, so pay attention and read all of it, because I don't want to be coming come back and having to re-explain stuff to you that I have already posted for your benefit.

1. Sample Size
Imagine you are a quality controller in a factory that makes a million widgets per day, and an unknown percentage could be defective. The only way to be 100% certain that none if the widgets are defective is to test all of them. Of course, you cannot do that because it would be impractical and very expensive. However, what you can do is take a random sample of the widgets and test those, lets say, 1000. If you find zero defective, you can be reasonably (but not 100% sure) that none of remaining 999,000 are defective. If you find a single defective one, that would indicate you could have as many as 1000 defective ones in the million batch, or as few as few as one. The defect rate is somewhere between 1:1,000,000 and 1:1,000 but you can't be sure. However, if you randomly test 10,000 widgets and you still only find one defective one, you have dramatically reduced your likely maximum defect rate to 1:10,000. This is a crude representation of a margin of error, but we can calculate it. You can be 99.99% confident with a margin of error of ±0.385% that you have no more than 100 defective widgets in the million batch.. even without testing all of them.

2. Margin of error.
This is the amount of error in results obtained from random sampling surveys or polls. If its higher the results are less reliable, if its lower they are more reliable. It is calculated with a simple formula, but the general trend is that the smaller the sample size, the larger the margin for error, the larger the sample size the smaller the error.

3. Extrapolation
Whether people vote or don't/can't vote they are still very likely to have a preference as to who they would have voted for it they had, or were allowed. You only have to look at political polls (some of the ones on 538 are good examples) where they poll people without first knowing whether they voted or not, and then refine the results by asking whether or not they were registered or not-registered to vote, whether they voted or didn't. They find that the results across all four groups are within the margin for error for that sample size, in other words when you sample people who did vote, those results will be reliable across the groups who did not or could not vote - the resulting difference between the groups is small and always within the margin for error. For (not a real world) example, if the result of a poll sample of 5,000 people produced an answer to a yes/no question that gave results from four different groups in that poll that were 41%, 42%, 39% and 41%, and the margin for error was ±2.33%, it is likely that those results are a very reliable and accurate prediction across the non-polled group, and with a confidence level of 99.9%.

4. The Economist Poll
The election was a poll; a big one. Its sample size is 155,506,056 out of a population of 328,000,000 is over 47%. As a sample size that is enormous and would result in a margin for error in the order of a hundredth of a percent or less.

Now I expect someone to come along with some whataboutism as regards kids under 18, prisoners, felons, undocumented workers etc - yada yada yada. Ignore what they post because it will all be irrelevant. The opening sentence of #3. above takes care of all of that.

* * * * * *

Note for the pedants
For the statistics experts out there, yes, I have not mentioned Altman Z scores, but I'm trying to keep this simple. Explaining standard deviations from the mean will have little effect on the subject here and will make this unnecessarily complicated - I am trying to minimize the bamboozlery. d4m10n may well understand, but there will be others of a less mathematical bent who won't.

For the pendants, in the three calculations above, the Altman scores were 3.89 for an α of 99.99%, 2.326 for an α of 99.9% and 3.29 for an α of 99.9% respectively.
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Old 28th August 2021, 10:06 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
LA has almost no ICU beds available before Ida hits. Thanks, unvaccinated!
Why can't we just throw their kind out? Send the unvaccinated adults home and be done with them.

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Old 29th August 2021, 09:16 AM   #272
d4m10n
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Statistics.
It is valid to use statistics to derive conclusions about a population from a random sample of that population. Does self-selection into the voting pool strike you as a random sample?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-selection_bias
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Old 29th August 2021, 10:03 AM   #273
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Post

Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I don't remember the polio cups. But that doesn't mean we didnt get that.

The shots were more traumatic for a lot of the kids. I remember being scared and putting on a brave face, but I remember kids crying waiting for their shots and after.
I remember my first shot as being an absolute riot with my died and another person holding me down while the nurse administered it. The still tell the story of me kicking and screaming. It was around the third time that after a great deal of "you are a brave boy..." talk on the way to the hospital remember me holding myself absolutely rigid and gritting my teeth as the needle was shoved in. But I was a brave boi. Incidentally, were the needles much bigger those days, or am I just misremembering?
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Old 29th August 2021, 10:04 AM   #274
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There was also a shot administered with something that resembled a staple gun...wonder which one that was.
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Old 29th August 2021, 12:11 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by Susheel View Post
I remember my first shot as being an absolute riot with my died and another person holding me down while the nurse administered it. The still tell the story of me kicking and screaming. It was around the third time that after a great deal of "you are a brave boy..." talk on the way to the hospital remember me holding myself absolutely rigid and gritting my teeth as the needle was shoved in. But I was a brave boi. Incidentally, were the needles much bigger those days, or am I just misremembering?
The actually were bigger and not as sharp as they are today. The thinner and sharper they are, the less painful they are.
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Old 29th August 2021, 12:23 PM   #276
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
It is valid to use statistics to derive conclusions about a population from a random sample of that population. Does self-selection into the voting pool strike you as a random sample?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-selection_bias
Uh, businesses use sampling all the time to make decisions involvind millions of dollars. Think they would risk their money if they did not think that sampling was pretty damn reliable?
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Old 29th August 2021, 12:33 PM   #277
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Uh, businesses use sampling all the time to make decisions involvind millions of dollars. Think they would risk their money if they did not think that sampling was pretty damn reliable?
Businesses hire people who know how to avoid elementary mistakes like mistaking self-selection for representative random sampling.
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Old 29th August 2021, 02:39 PM   #278
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
It is valid to use statistics to derive conclusions about a population from a random sample of that population. Does self-selection into the voting pool strike you as a random sample?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-selection_bias
Poppycock. There is no self selection bias in this poll, and here's why.

The very first line of your own cite tells you why it doesn't apply in this situation.

"In statistics, self-selection bias arises in any situation in which individuals select themselves into a group, causing a biased sample with non-probability sampling."


The group polled did not self select into that group. You might think that the fact they voted, or that they chose to get vaccinated, means they self self-selected, but that is not what "self-selection bias" means.

Self-selection bias only applies when the group is related to he subject of the poll, for example if a group who owns a particular brand of car and is asked questions about that brand of car, that can lead to biased answers to those questions because the owners of that brand of car are a self selected group answering questions directly relating to what that group have in common.

In fact, the cite you linked to actually explains this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-s...as#Explanation

"If the study measures an improvement in absolute test scores due to participation in the preparation course, they may be skewed to show a higher effect. "

If you tried to apply self-selection bias the way you are incorrectly applying it here, you would never he able to ask any group about anything in a poll; you could not ask registered voters about their politics because you deem them as self-selected into the registered voters group, you would never he able to ask football players about which brand of any product they use because you deem them as self-selected into the footballers group.

In this case, the vaccinated people group are being asked how they voted, not about what they think of vaccination.
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Old 29th August 2021, 05:04 PM   #279
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
There is no self selection bias in this poll, and here's why.
One poll at a time, please.

You wrote:
Quote:
The election was a poll; a big one. Its sample size is 155,506,056 out of a population of 328,000,000 is over 47%.
Are you willing to claim that the election gave us a random sample of the overall population?

If not, the next claim you made does not follow:
Quote:
As a sample size that is enormous and would result in a margin for error in the order of a hundredth of a percent or less.
This is true, if the sample is random rather than self-selected. Alas, the sample of people with the means and motivation to vote is anything but random, and the majority voting bloc remains those who stay at home. You want to make statistical inferences about those folks, but you cannot do so from the Biden/Trump variable.

ETA: A quick thought experiment to make this clear. Imagine a society in which blue voters like to get vaccines, red voters much prefer vet meds, and non-voters do not seek out either vaccines or veterinary medicine. Can you make any inferences about the non-voters based on the behaviour of voters?
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Old 29th August 2021, 05:05 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Why can't we just throw their kind out? Send the unvaccinated adults home and be done with them.
I'd be all for this option if there was a way to ensure that they were unvaccinated by choice or not. IE.. people who couldn't get vaccinated because of medical reasons or other legitimate reasons.
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