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Tags Coronavirus

View Poll Results: Who do you blame?
Trump. He should have at least done a PSA encouraging people to get vaccinated. 42 37.84%
Right wing media for almost embracing an anti-vax sentiment 67 60.36%
Republican Governors particularly Desantis and Abbott 50 45.05%
Internet know it alls that don't actually. 30 27.03%
The Republican party for trying to be as crazy as Trump. 52 46.85%
Joe Biden for not being persuasive enough 3 2.70%
The Democrats because shouldn't we blame them? 3 2.70%
The public for being just too stupid. 59 53.15%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 111. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 29th August 2021, 05:44 PM   #281
smartcooky
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Are you willing to claim that the election gave us a random sample of the overall population?

If not, the next claim you made does not follow:


This is true, if the sample is random rather than self-selected. Alas, the sample of people with the means and motivation to vote is anything but random, and the majority voting bloc remains those who stay at home. You want to make statistical inferences about those folks, but you cannot do so from the Biden/Trump variable.
The mistake you are making is that you think voters are the sample. They are not, that was YOUR claim...

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
The Biden/Trump variable used in the Economist model applies to only 155,506,056 Americans, which is fewer than half of the 331 million people living here.
...a claim I was addressing to show you that 155m out of 331m is a very large proportion of the overall population and extrapolating to the other 176m is a simple, accurate exercise

Voters were not polled, people were polled, and voting was an answer to a question, as were religion, ethnicity etc.

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
A quick thought experiment to make this clear. Imagine a society in which blue voters like to get vaccines, red voters much prefer vet meds, and non-voters do not seek out either vaccines or veterinary medicine. Can you make any inferences about the non-voters based on the behaviour of voters?
Pointless, since such a society does not and could not exist. This is like asking about the length of an adult unicorn's horn, or the wingspan of an angel. It is not possible to make valid determinations about things that do not exist.

But hey, if you refuse to understand what I have explained to you, then you are probably too far down the rabbit hole to be rescued. That's YP!
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Old 29th August 2021, 06:05 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
...a claim I was addressing to show you that 155m out of 331m is a very large proportion of the overall population and extrapolating to the other 176m is a simple, accurate exercise.
An exercise which has thus far been left to the reader. It's completely unclear to me what you (or The Economist) have to say about the 176 million.
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Old 29th August 2021, 06:22 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
An exercise which has thus far been left to the reader. It's completely unclear to me what you (or The Economist) have to say about the 176 million.


Question: If I have 331 million widgets in a box, and I randomly pull out 155 million, and find that 55% are blue, and 45% are red, what can we say about the other 176 million widgets in the box? Which of the following will be the most likely result?

(A) 95% will be blue and 5% will be red
(B) 5% will be blue and 95% will be red
(E) 55% will be blue and 45% will be red
(D) Some other ratio of red to blue (specify)
(E) They will all be black

If you still don't get it, then whatever?

I've done my best to explain it to you, but I'm not wasting any more of my time.

YP!
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Old 29th August 2021, 06:37 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Question: If I have 331 million widgets in a box, and I randomly pull out 155 million, and find that 55% are blue, and 45% are red, what can we say about the other 176 million widgets in the box?
Your analogy fails for the reasons already discussed above: confusing random selection with self selection.
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Old 29th August 2021, 06:50 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Your analogy fails for the reasons already discussed above: confusing random selection with self selection.
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Old 29th August 2021, 08:19 PM   #286
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If you let the widgets decide which widgets get counted, you aren't sampling from the widgets at random.

If you aren't sampling at random, you don't get to use the usual tools of inferential statistics to set confidence bounds or point estimates for the entire population.

I'm not sure how else to explain the problem here. If you want to make inferences about the non-voters, you're going to need to start from a random sample from the population of non-voters. It's possible that The Economist has this buried in the crosstabs, but not in the article itself.
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Old 29th August 2021, 10:33 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
If you let the widgets decide which widgets get counted, you aren't sampling from the widgets at random.

If you aren't sampling at random, you don't get to use the usual tools of inferential statistics to set confidence bounds or point estimates for the entire population.

I'm not sure how else to explain the problem here. If you want to make inferences about the non-voters, you're going to need to start from a random sample from the population of non-voters. It's possible that The Economist has this buried in the crosstabs, but not in the article itself.
Wrong! Totally, utterly, and completely wrong!

I'm not sure how else to explain the problem here but if, by your definition, you are going to call the 155m voters a "self selected group", you must also call the 176m non-voters a "self-selected group".... by your own (incorrect) definition!!

Your (incorrect) definition makes it impossible to ever poll/survey ANY group of people with something in common regardless of what you are polling them about because you are automatically forced to rule them all out as being self-selected. Can you not see this obvious flaw in your definition?

Go back and read the explanation/example in the Wikipedia link you posted earlier. It is only when you are polling/surveying the group on a subject about that group that you have to account for self-selection bias.

As one of the members here so eloquently puts it... "You can Google for information, but you can't Google for understanding"
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Old 30th August 2021, 05:31 AM   #288
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Your (incorrect) definition makes it impossible to ever poll/survey ANY group of people with something in common regardless of what you are polling them about because you are automatically forced to rule them all out as being self-selected.
There is literally no random process in the loop when it coming to voting, unlike well-deisgned surveys which attempt to sample the population randomly and then reweight the sample to adjust for non-response rates by key demographics. This is why you are utterly wrong to conflate elections and surveys as you have above.

(You also haven't made any inferences about the non-voting population yet.)
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:15 AM   #289
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
There is literally no random process in the loop when it coming to voting, unlike well-deisgned surveys which attempt to sample the population randomly and then reweight the sample to adjust for non-response rates by key demographics.
This literally has nothing whatsoever to do what I have been trying to explain to you; what you have been wilfully refusing to understand.

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
This is why you are utterly wrong to conflate elections and surveys as you have above.
Wrong.

In a poll, you are asked a question, and you give an answer from a range of choices - you are voting for your choice.

In an election, you are asked a question, and you give an answer from a range of choices - you are voting for your choice.

Polls, elections and surveys are enough alike that the same statistical analysis tools and methodologies can be used for all three. If you don't believe me, pretty much any political science textbook, or anyone with a degree in political science can explain this to you.

FFS, in some countries, elections are actually called "polls" !!

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
You also haven't made any inferences about the non-voting population yet.)
I did, in posts #245, #270, #278, #281. You simply chose to hand-wave them away.
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:21 AM   #290
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
In a poll, you are asked a question, and you give an answer from a range of choices - you are voting for your choice.

In an election, you are asked a question, and you give an answer from a range of choices you are voting for your choice.
Now compare the selection process for who gets sampled.

In a survey, a random cross-section of the population is generated, typically using random number generation.

In an election, people select themselves into the voting booth based on their own personal means and motives.
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:27 AM   #291
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I did, in posts #245, #270, #278, #281. You simply chose to hand-wave them away.
Which of the conclusions/assertions made in #245 apply to people who didn't vote?
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Old 30th August 2021, 07:13 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Total nonsense.

ETA: This isn't horse and buggy days. People who live on farms aren't living in the 1800's; they have trucks/cars. Getting to a pharmacy or a vaccination center isn't that difficult and the vaccine is readily available upon walk ins. If they aren't vaccinated by now, it's because they choose not to be.
Indeed. I go back and forth between two homes, both rural. Both locations, it's a 10 minute drive to the nearest vaccination.
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Old 30th August 2021, 03:10 PM   #293
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Now compare the selection process for who gets sampled.

In a survey, a random cross-section of the population is generated, typically using random number generation.

In an election, people select themselves into the voting booth based on their own personal means and motives.
Irrelevant because that is NOT what the Economist poll did.

You are completely misunderstanding what "self-selected" means. Self-selection bias only applies when the sample is self selected, it does not apply to the results from a random sample. If I ask 1000 randomly chosen people who their preferred president is, the result will not be biased by self-selection (your definition would say it was). However, if I were to ask 1000 randomly chosen members of the Democratic party who their preferred president is, that result would be biased because everyone in the sample are self selected into the group I am sampling and polling. What you are in effect arguing that if a random sampling of the population were polled, for example, as to whether or not they owned a car, any results would be invalid because all those who answered "yes" are self-selected since they chose to own a car. Can you not understand this is incorrect?

In the Economist poll, a random sample of the population was asked if they were vaccinated or not, and then they were asked, among other things, who they voted for. The group {vaccinated or not vaccinated} is not the sample, its the result. The Group who voted {Biden or Trump} is not the sample, its the result.
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Old 30th August 2021, 05:49 PM   #294
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Why can't we just throw their kind out? Send the unvaccinated adults home and be done with them.
Is there any precedent for triage by moral qualification? As angry as I am at people who harm themselves and others through ignorance, I'm not willing to head down that road.
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Old 30th August 2021, 05:56 PM   #295
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Irrelevant because that is NOT what the Economist poll did.
Once again, one poll at a time. I'm correcting your assertion above that the 2020 election can be analyzed as if it were random sample.

Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
The election was a poll; a big one. Its sample size is 155,506,056 out of a population of 328,000,000 is over 47%. As a sample size that is enormous and would result in a margin for error in the order of a hundredth of a percent or less.
In order to calculate the margin of error using the usual statistical tools, you'd need to know that the voters were selected at random. This assumption (which you also used in your widget analogy) is demonstrably untrue. In reality, voters select themselves into the sample group.

Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
In the Economist poll, a random sample of the population was asked if they were vaccinated or not, and then they were asked, among other things, who they voted for.
This is all correct, but it doesn't logcially lead us to the conclusion that partisan voting is the strongest predictor of vaccination status among adults.
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:04 PM   #296
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Once again, one poll at a time. I'm correcting your assertion above that the 2020 election can be analyzed as if it were random sample.
It's not a random sample, it is a generally representative sample of the US population minus people under 18. Is it a perfect representation? No, but it does allow us to make some conclusions about COVID and vaccinations.
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:05 PM   #297
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
It's not a random sample, it is a generally representative sample of the US population minus people under 18. Is it a perfect representation? No, but it does allow us to make some conclusions about COVID and vaccinations.
Such as?
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:25 PM   #298
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Such as?
Such as people that live in areas that voted for Trump are significantly more likely to be unvaccinated and like to contract COVID in the last two months. There is an 18 point swing.
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:41 PM   #299
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Once again, one poll at a time. I'm correcting your assertion above that the 2020 election can be analyzed as if it were random sample.
There is nothing to correct... you . are. wrong!

The sample size does not matter. You can sample a 1000, or 10,000, or 100,000 or 1,000,000, and you can use the same statistical tools and methodologies to analyse any sample no matter the size . This is basic Applied Statistics 101 FFS. The sample size in the case of the election was 331 million people, and that size of a sample can be analysed just like any other sample.

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
In order to calculate the margin of error using the usual statistical tools, you'd need to know that the voters were selected at random.
Again, you . are . wrong.

You would be right IF, and only IF, the only people polled were VOTERS and they were asked about VOTING, THEN and only THEN would self-selection bias apply. But that is not, repeat not what the Economist poll did!

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
This assumption (which you also used in your widget analogy) is demonstrably untrue. In reality, voters select themselves into the sample group.
Wrong again! The widget analogy is demonstrably and verifiably correct. I used these exact type of Applied Statistics and Applied Mathematics tools in my work as an Aeronautical Engineer for over to 20 ******* years. So did every other Aero. Engineer I worked with during that time.

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
This is all correct, but it doesn't logcially lead us to the conclusion that partisan voting is the strongest predictor of vaccination status among adults.
Stop digging d4m10n, you are simply wrong.

At this point, I can only conclude that you are just being wilfully contrarian for the lolz!
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:50 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Such as people that live in areas that voted for Trump are significantly more likely to be unvaccinated and like to contract COVID in the last two months. There is an 18 point swing.
There is an 18 point swing between individual voters who voted for Trump and those who voted for Biden, but voters are outnumbered by non-voters (who fall in the middle, but much closer to Trump voters) in most places.

That said, the Trump counties will likely get hit the hardest.
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Old 30th August 2021, 06:57 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
The widget analogy is demonstrably and verifiably correct.
Your widget analogy compared an attempt to "randomly pull out 155 million" widgets to an election in which 155 million people are self-selected to represent a larger population. In reality, the 155 million were anything but randomly pulled. You need to face up to this disanalogy before you can start applying any statistical methods.
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Old 30th August 2021, 07:15 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Your widget analogy compared an attempt to "randomly pull out 155 million" widgets to an election in which 155 million people are self-selected to represent a larger population. In reality, the 155 million were anything but randomly pulled. You need to face up to this disanalogy before you can start applying any statistical methods.
NO! NO! NO!

They did not self-select.... I SELECTED THEM AT RANDOM FROM A BOX OF 331 MILLION.

You need to face up to this fact before you can understand anything about applying any statistical methods.
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Old 30th August 2021, 07:29 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I SELECTED THEM AT RANDOM FROM A BOX OF 331 MILLION.
Of course you did, it's your analogy.

Was the random sample of 155 million widgets supposed to be analogous to another 155 million in real life? Voters, perhaps?
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Old 30th August 2021, 08:01 PM   #304
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Of course you did, it's your analogy.

Was the random sample of 155 million widgets supposed to be analogous to another 155 million in real life? Voters, perhaps?
You're still missing the point. Perhaps I need to walk you through this in tiny little baby steps

The whole point of polling is that you don't have to ask everyone what they think to get the big picture. You only have to ask a randomly selected sample what they think. Some will respond, some will not, and you can use Statistical tools and methods to project with some accuracy what everyone thinks, including those in the sample who do not respond. The larger the sample, the more accurate the projection

In my widgets analogy I don't have to look at all of the widgets to get the big picture. I only have to look at a randomly selected sample to see what colour they are. Some I will be be able to get out of the box, some I will not, and I can use Statistical tools and methods to project with some accuracy what the colours of all of the widgets are, including those in the sample that I was unable to get out of the box. The larger the sample, the more accurate the projection.

In the election (any election) you don't have to ask everyone what they think to get a government, but you do. The sample size is everyone so you ask everyone. Some will respond (by voting) some will not (by not voting), and you can use Statistical tools and methods to project with some accuracy what everyone thinks, including those in the sample who did not vote. The larger the sample, the more accurate the projection.

The three scenarios above are statistically near enough identical that using the same mathematical analysis for each is valid.
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Old 30th August 2021, 08:24 PM   #305
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
The three scenarios above are statistically near enough identical that using the same mathematical analysis for each is valid.
No.

In your widget scenario the sample is random and ordinary statistical formulae may be applied. In the actual voting scenario, self-selection is the (non-random) process used to create the sample of the population, and you'll draw bad inferences to the extent that the sample is biased away randomness.

ETA: Try asking only voters whether they think voting is a civic duty. Now try to generalize that answer to the population, given that you've only sampled voters.
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Old 30th August 2021, 08:34 PM   #306
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Well, a thread about one of the worst politicalizations of one of the worst events to occur in my lifetime, with huge radical life-altering results to me and almost everyone I know...and it's managed to become boring. That's either a triumph of human mental adaptability or a symptom that this messageboard is cuckoo bananas.
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Old 30th August 2021, 09:26 PM   #307
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
No.

In your widget scenario the sample is random and ordinary statistical formulae may be applied. In the actual voting scenario, self-selection is the (non-random) process used to create the sample of the population, and you'll draw bad inferences to the extent that the sample is biased away randomness.

ETA: Try asking only voters whether they think voting is a civic duty. Now try to generalize that answer to the population, given that you've only sampled voters.
I give up! You are simply refusing to understand.
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Old 30th August 2021, 09:28 PM   #308
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Well, a thread about one of the worst politicalizations of one of the worst events to occur in my lifetime, with huge radical life-altering results to me and almost everyone I know...and it's managed to become boring. That's either a triumph of human mental adaptability or a symptom that this messageboard is cuckoo bananas.
You can blame contrarian, wilfully ignorant evince-handwavers for that.
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Old 30th August 2021, 09:46 PM   #309
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Ran Paul is putting his name forward as the person who is to blame for the surge.
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Old 30th August 2021, 10:17 PM   #310
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Ran Paul is putting his name forward as the person who is to blame for the surge.
Oh, so he's a super spreader. Like his former colleague Larry Craig.

Ba dum tish!
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Old 30th August 2021, 10:22 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
No worries Steve, God will protect them

https://news.yahoo.com/amish-communi...041428351.html
And if he doesn't, well if you believe in the afterlife then dying of Covid is not a big deal.

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Old 30th August 2021, 10:56 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
And if he doesn't, well if you believe in the afterlife then dying of Covid is not a big deal.

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Yeah, you kind of expect that from loony religious fundies.

He's going to be very disappointed when he realises there is no afterlife......

Oh, wait!
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Old 30th August 2021, 11:48 PM   #313
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Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate View Post
Oh, so he's a super spreader. Like his former colleague Larry Craig.

Ba dum tish!
Go to your room. And don't come out until I tell you.
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Old 30th August 2021, 11:50 PM   #314
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
No worries Steve, God will protect them

https://news.yahoo.com/amish-communi...041428351.html
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Old 1st September 2021, 03:06 PM   #315
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Here is an excellent article on how the media...or more precisely, conservative media...has influenced what people believe about Covid vaccination, the 2020 election, etc.

Quote:
Analysis: Republican trust in media keeps sinking to new lows, opening door to overlapping misinformation
Quote:
Disbelief in election results and distrust of the vaccines are connected. One of the connections is an utter lack of confidence in institutional sources of information. One of the consequences is a pandemic that could have been brought under control by now. Which leads me to this new poll...
Losing trust

The Pew Research Center released a discouraging data set this week. "In just five years, the percentage of Republicans with at least some trust in national news organizations has been cut in half -- dropping from 70% in 2016 to 35% this year," Jeffrey Gottfried and Jacob Liedke wrote. "This decline is fueling the continued widening of the partisan gap in trust of the media."
Overall, Pew found, 58% of US adults say they have at least some trust in the information from national news outlets. "This is the smallest share over the past five years this question was asked," Pew said.
Of course, this reflects the views of everyone from MAGA diehards who believe Donald Trump's "enemy of the people" smears all the way to leftists who believe the press went way too easy on Trump's undemocratic conduct. Plus, each person's definition of "national news organizations" is different. But the GOP's collapse in trust is colossal. (And this isn't the only poll to say so. Gallup showed a similarly bleak divide late last year.)
Quote:
Here's another way to slice the Pew data: "78% of Democrats say they have 'a lot' or 'some' trust in the information that comes from national news organizations -- 43 points higher than Republicans. This partisan gap is the largest it has been over the past five years this question was asked."
Quote:
Survey after survey shows that Republicans tend to be more distrustful of government, of science, and so on. New York University journalism professor Jay Rosen said his takeaway from the Pew poll was that "Republicans trust everything less," including information shared on social media. "Flooding the zone with s*** works. It lowers trust in the entire system, so the worst among us can profit," he said.
The "flooding the zone" strategy includes a never-ending Fox News narrative about Big Media and Big Tech censoring and hurting and destroying everyone in its way. People who don't watch Fox every day don't understand what it's like to be told, by people you respect, that every other source is biased, ergo you can't trust anything.
The propaganda is incredibly effective. Fox didn't have any reporters in Afghanistan when Kabul fell to the Taliban, but Fox loyalists "knew" not to trust the national news outlets that actually did have journalists in harm's way covering the story.
And who fueled the "fake news" narrative? Donald J. Trump. Further evidence that who is POTUS has a huge influence on what people think and believe.
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Old 1st September 2021, 03:23 PM   #316
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Here is an excellent article on how the media...or more precisely, conservative media...has influenced what people believe about Covid vaccination, the 2020 election, etc.

And who fueled the "fake news" narrative? Donald J. Trump. Further evidence that who is POTUS has a huge influence on what people think and believe.
Don't worry, I'm sure there will be someone who can explain how this poll is meaningless because Repugnuts and Trumpistas chose to be who they are.
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Old 1st September 2021, 03:43 PM   #317
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Here is an excellent article on how the media...or more precisely, conservative media...has influenced what people believe about Covid vaccination, the 2020 election, etc.

And who fueled the "fake news" narrative? Donald J. Trump. Further evidence that who is POTUS has a huge influence on what people think and believe.
And many of them are spouting things like the mask mandates are the beginning of communism or some version of that. All the while they are oblivious to how their beliefs are being manipulated.
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Old 1st September 2021, 03:50 PM   #318
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And many of them are spouting things like the mask mandates are the beginning of communism or some version of that. All the while they are oblivious to how their beliefs are being manipulated.
These idiots think ride sharing is communism.
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Old 1st September 2021, 10:58 PM   #319
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More evidence to add to the bonfire

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Old 2nd September 2021, 12:33 AM   #320
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
More evidence to add to the bonfire

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Yup. That would be obvious even to a blind person with a learning disability, but a few will just handwave it away as voters self-selecting or something
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