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Old 26th May 2018, 12:48 PM   #81
smartcooky
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Horrors! A businessman doesn't go out of his way to do something that could harm his business! Who ever heard of such a thing!
This is one of the ways you can tell that you've made it... the hypercritical and the tall poppy snippers of the world hold you to a different standard from that which they hold everyone else, they try to spin your successes into failures, and your good decisions into bad.

These nitpickers will criticize the ideas of people like Musk and Branson and Bezos, call them impossible or unreasonable dreams, or just plain stupid. Well, it they hadn't tried, and instead, just gave up, no-one would even remember who they are.
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Old 26th May 2018, 02:00 PM   #82
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Elon Musk has functional ideas, although given Tesla's recent numbers just how commercial they are beyond the novelty stage remains to be seen.

One unfortunate thing that has lately been thrown into relief is that he has a Trumpian inability to handle criticism, especially from the media.
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Old 26th May 2018, 03:53 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by Elon Musk
Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated.
Yeah, totally unable to handle criticism. So unable to admit he was wrong that he recently gave specific, detailed examples of the ways he went wrong (the whole "FluffBot" discussion for one).

It's a bit curious how some people will simultaneously jump on him for both his ambitious goals and for daring to admit his limitations. What's the message here, "doing new things is morally wrong"? "Just lie and run the company into the ground in pursuit of this quarter's profits like a good CEO"? The only consistent thread seems to be "Musk is doing it, so it's bad".
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Old 26th May 2018, 07:15 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
You've phrased that in such general terms that they're hard to disagree with.

But can you think of another example of a significant company that advertises a product but won't sell it, out of fear of financially wrecking the company?
Boeing Sonic Cruiser. Boeing SST. Both of those cancellations were quite remarkably sensible. A great many other companies have stuck with losers right up until the end, because their CEO's don't want to look bad. Good thing Musk is smarter than that.

And since the whole point of the thread is that Musk is all show, you obviously need to take "financially wrecking the company" as typical Musk hyperbole. What he's really thinking, IMO, is "Let's see. We can sell the base model for $35k and break even or make a few bucks, or we can sell all we can make of the pricier one that costs $5k more and sells for $10k more. Hmmm, decisions, decisons...."
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Old 26th May 2018, 10:07 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Do you have a timeline in mind for the decline of air travel? Also, on what basis do you make this prediction? Peak oil (gas/coal)? Or the decline of modern techological civilization due to climate change? Other factors? A combination of the above?

I think I understand the general concern, but I'm genuinely curious to understand specifically where you are coming from.

The environmentalist in me sees that there are valid concerns. The technological optimist in me thinks that those concerns will be overcome, and while new problems will arise, they will be dealt with in turn.

I might be wrong, though, so I would appreciate hearing your case for the specific decline you seem to be hinting at.

I wish there were a quick straightforward answer to this. The simple straightforward arguments are incomplete and therefore often unconvincing; the complete arguments are... nonexistent (and if they weren't they'd probably be too complex to evaluate). I can't even wholeheartedly recommend any of the many entire books on the subject. And "read all of those, then do your own research and analysis" isn't really practical advice either.

It basically comes down to population versus resources, with scarcities arising in all different areas. (Google "sand theft" for one example that might surprise you.) Resources (including energy) don't suddenly "run out" or even necessarily see huge rises in their market price. Instead, modest price rises driven mostly by production price increases (rather than by scarcity per se) tend to cause decreased usage (demand destruction). When one of the demands that's reduced is keeping up with infrastructure maintenance, it's the beginning of a vicious cycle.

The role climate change plays is to increase costs of infrastructure maintenance, in wildly uneven and unpredictable ways. (It's clear by now that reducing carbon emissions to limit climate change is not itself going to cause any energy supply issue, because no one is going to do it, for the same reason I didn't bicycle to work yesterday to reduce my own carbon footprint even though I could have.)


As for a timeline, I do have one in mind, but it's probably wrong. The two key things about the decline (that the "peak oil movement" failed to grasp, making itself so wrong in its predictions as to be irrelevant) is that it's slow, and that it's already been going on for decades now.

For instance, there's already been a decline in air travel, but the decline has been in quality rather than usage. My guess is that any changes in air travel in the next 15 to 25 years will be spun as improvements rather than a decline, even if what's actually happening is a gradual return to air travel being a high-quality luxury service for the wealthy as it once was, no longer affordable to as large a segment of the population.

(This would follow the pattern of other things, such as it no longer being possible to afford a house on a single full-time income from an entry level high school diploma job, unlike fifty years ago, or no longer being possible to work ones way through college without also accumulating large amounts of debt, unlike forty years ago. Somehow these are seen as indicators of how awesomely jobs, houses, and colleges have improved over the years rather than as indicators of effects of increased competition for limited resources.)

To make predictions about whole economic sectors (such as air travel) in the long term, it seems to make the most sense to look at demand elasticities. When you're hard up and have to make choices, what do you hang onto and what do you let fall by the wayside? An ordinary family would keep food in the pantry and the rent paid, but give up the vacation trip to Orlando. (That's actually a best case scenario, where at least the people involved are making those decisions for themselves. A nation deeply divided along class lines with an oligarchic government might instead opt to keep a thriving airline industry and nice vacations available for the elite, and let millions starve. In that case decline shifts into other modalities, such as domestic insurgency. Hari Seldon can only tear his hair out over such unpredictable turns.)

None of this has much to do specifically with Musk or any of his projects. It's not that Musk is doing things that are any more likely to make the problem worse than any other heavy industry; it's that the problem becoming worse is an obstacle to some of Musk's more grandiose plans. If you want to discuss "decline" in earnest, a new thread might be in order.
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Old 26th May 2018, 10:18 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Checkmite View Post
One unfortunate thing that has lately been thrown into relief is that he has a Trumpian inability to handle criticism, especially from the media.

This happens to be a trait of those at both ends of the intelligence scale, and as we all know, its a fine line between genius and stupidity. Musk is at the genius end......
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Old 27th May 2018, 12:21 AM   #87
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Quote:
For instance, there's already been a decline in air travel,
Citation??
I think you are crazy off base

Quote:
IATA - More than 7% increase in Air Travel Compared to Last Year
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pag...-10-09-01.aspx
Oct 9, 2017 - Montreal – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced industry performance statistics for 2016 showing that system-wide, airlines carried 3.8 billion passengers on scheduled services last year, an increase of 7% over 2015, representing an additional 242 million air trips.
Quote:
Press Release No.: 55
Date: 24 October 2017
2036 Forecast Reveals Air Passengers Will Nearly Double to 7.8 Billion

Geneva - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the 4 billion air travelers expected to fly this year. The prediction is based on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.
“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pag...-10-24-01.aspx

Hardly a luxury service...they are considering standing room only short haul and flights are incredibly cheap.

Quote:
One-way flights from Toronto to Sydney, Australia - $499 to $520 CAD ...
http://www.yyzdeals.com/one-way-flig...499-to-520-cad...
Jul 7, 2017 - There have been a lot of excellent roundtrip prices from Toronto to Australia lately, in the range of $900-$950 CAD roundtrip including taxes, even with great airlines like Qantas. ... But American Airlines is currently showing 1-stop flights from Toronto to Sydney, Australia for $499 ...
A Dreamliner has a lower fuel use per passenger than a Prius with 4 people aboard and electrics will really help the short haul routes.

Low cost flights have aided labour mobility greatly - the exchange of people under 35 between Canada and Australia on working visas is astonishing.
A petition is circulating to have Aus Canada NZ and the UK visa free for citizens all aided and abetted by low cost air fares.

I can even fly me and my motorcycle between Toronto and Vancouver for less than the cost of driving it there.
Better engines, biofuels and electrics ensure a very long future for the airline industry.

The elites buy their own planes or charter - not have to deal with the hoi poloi like me in steerage....err economy.

Last edited by macdoc; 27th May 2018 at 12:30 AM.
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Old 27th May 2018, 06:08 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pag...-10-24-01.aspx

Hardly a luxury service...they are considering standing room only short haul and flights are incredibly cheap.

What a surprise... a trade association touting the wonderful benefits, social necessity, and inevitable bright future of its industry.

And, of course, such standing-room-only flights would be exactly the sort of how-dare-anyone-call-it-a-decline symptom I was talking about. "Why, back in my day we had to sit in seats for the entire fight, and they served us drinks and bad food and showed movies to keep us quiet, and we flew to vacation spots instead of to corporate facilities looking for our cheap labor! You kids don't know how good you've got it!"
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Old 27th May 2018, 06:35 AM   #89
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Ummm nice dodge....IATA is reporting numbers...and there is no decline ....not even the hint of a decline.

Um I suggest I'm likely older than you.

Airlines are far more critical than "vacation travel".
Freight and courier is an enormous segment.
https://www.joc.com/air-cargo/intern..._20171118.html

and growing as e-commerce hollows out brick and mortar and just in time inventory becomes critical.

You wanna bitch ...bitch about the waste of the largest user of fossil fuel on the planet - the US military.
Quote:
The U.S. Military and Oil | Union of Concerned Scientists
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicle...y-oil-use.html
The U.S. military uses more oil than any other institution in the world—but it's also a leader in ... The U.S. military is the largest institutional consumer of oil in the world. ... Using hybrid-electric technology, the Navy's USS Makin Island saved approximately one million gallons of fuel on her ... The Equation · All Things Nuclear.
Even they are getting into electrics and bio-fuels and of course have nuclear ships.

Just don't trot out inaccuracies without supporting documents.
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Old 27th May 2018, 06:55 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
Just don't trot out inaccuracies without supporting documents.

Agreed. In return, I request that you don't quote statements of mine that you've cut in half and then characterize the results as "inaccuracies."
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Old 27th May 2018, 09:57 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
I wish there were a quick straightforward answer to this. The simple straightforward arguments are incomplete and therefore often unconvincing; the complete arguments are... nonexistent (and if they weren't they'd probably be too complex to evaluate). I can't even wholeheartedly recommend any of the many entire books on the subject. And "read all of those, then do your own research and analysis" isn't really practical advice either.
I appreciate this. We live in a complicated world and trying to understand our future as the interplay of economics, politics, human psychology, technology (current and developing), science, etc. is to take incredibly complex fields and somehow imagine we can understand how they all come together. Yet we all do exactly this when we want to understand the future and even those who pretend not to are often just saying either "things will stay the same" which is probably the most naive prediction of them all, or "trends will continue in a linear fashion" which is only slightly less naive.

Anyway, could you recommend some of those titles? (I may have read a few, though probably not the more recent ones). Doing so by PM would be cool.

Quote:
It basically comes down to population versus resources, with scarcities arising in all different areas. (Google "sand theft" for one example that might surprise you.) Resources (including energy) don't suddenly "run out" or even necessarily see huge rises in their market price. Instead, modest price rises driven mostly by production price increases (rather than by scarcity per se) tend to cause decreased usage (demand destruction). When one of the demands that's reduced is keeping up with infrastructure maintenance, it's the beginning of a vicious cycle.
Makes sense. Do you have an example of an industry where this has happened?

Quote:
The role climate change plays is to increase costs of infrastructure maintenance, in wildly uneven and unpredictable ways. (It's clear by now that reducing carbon emissions to limit climate change is not itself going to cause any energy supply issue, because no one is going to do it, for the same reason I didn't bicycle to work yesterday to reduce my own carbon footprint even though I could have.)
I agree.


Quote:
As for a timeline, I do have one in mind, but it's probably wrong. The two key things about the decline (that the "peak oil movement" failed to grasp, making itself so wrong in its predictions as to be irrelevant) is that it's slow, and that it's already been going on for decades now.
That's fair. The reason I asked for a timeline is that I've been looking at this concept of "superforcasters", and it seems to me that making specific predictions is a good way to test our models. But obviously that's not going to be easy (and we probably need to find the right questions to ask).

Quote:
For instance, there's already been a decline in air travel, but the decline has been in quality rather than usage.
Could you quantify that? If there's been a rise in usage but a decline in quality, for instance, doesn't that still mean more people are able to travel? If travel is becoming more and more uncomfortable, I agree that's a problem and all else being equal could be a signal of the decline, but all else not being equal it can just as well be a signal air travel becoming less of a luxury and more accessable to the masses of people.

So what would you consider a reasonble metric to measure the decline of air travel? I'd think total number of passenger miles is probably best, but you may have an objection to that.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ffic-globally/
Quote:
The statistic shows the number of scheduled passengers handled by the airline industry globally from 2004 to 2018. Worldwide, commercial airlines carried just over four billion passengers on scheduled flights in 2017.
The total number of flights worldwide has gone up by a factor of 1.6 since 2004:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...er-of-flights/


The air industry seems to be doing well:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...nes-worldwide/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...r-from-the-us/
Quote:
This statistic portrays the total number of air traffic passengers traveling to or from the United States between 2005 and 2018. In 2017, about 232 million air traffic passengers traveled to or from the U.S.
Quote:
My guess is that any changes in air travel in the next 15 to 25 years will be spun as improvements rather than a decline, even if what's actually happening is a gradual return to air travel being a high-quality luxury service for the wealthy as it once was, no longer affordable to as large a segment of the population.
Isn't that the opposite of the decline in quality that you just suggested was happening though? If more and more people are flying, even if the flights are less comfortable, that sounds like the opposite of a return to air travel as a luxury good.

I suppose it's possible that the statistics I quoted above are showing a rise in the number of trips that people who fly very often (say for business) are making while most people are making fewer trips.
But tourism, worldwide, is on the rise:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL
Which suggests that it really is just the more people are traveling more often. If you have statistics that run counter to that, I'd be interested.

I understand that the issue you're raising isn't specifically about air travel but is much more broad, but I do think that specific examples can help us to see if our viewpoint is accurate or needs to be reassessed.


Quote:
None of this has much to do specifically with Musk or any of his projects. It's not that Musk is doing things that are any more likely to make the problem worse than any other heavy industry; it's that the problem becoming worse is an obstacle to some of Musk's more grandiose plans. If you want to discuss "decline" in earnest, a new thread might be in order.
That would probably be an interesting thread, and yeah you're probably right that this isn't the one to get into it. I thought your post deserved a reply, but yeah maybe I'll start that thread if we want to continue with this discussion.
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Old 27th May 2018, 11:39 AM   #92
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Foe interested parties

A comparison of Tesla Motors to automobile manufacturers:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla...-gm-fca-2018-5

Tesla, at its base, is an automaker. But unlike other automakers, Tesla is valued like a rapid-growth tech firm and avidly followed by the same enthusiasts who might consider their passions to be social media, fintech, and cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, there's a traditional auto industry that, after being pummeled by the financial crisis, has come roaring back since 2010. The four old-school companies I follow closely — General Motors, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, and Ferrari — are awash in cash and profits and have been raking it in for literally years.

One salient statistic: GM and Tesla staged initial public offerings in 2010, but since then Tesla has never posted an annual profit, while GM has made over $70 billion.


Bottom line - Tesla is run more like a hobbyist pastime than an automaker.
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Old 27th May 2018, 11:48 AM   #93
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Innovative new company runs differently from hundred year old established industry giant. So what?
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Old 27th May 2018, 12:12 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
A comparison of Tesla Motors to automobile manufacturers:

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla...-gm-fca-2018-5

Tesla, at its base, is an automaker. But unlike other automakers, Tesla is valued like a rapid-growth tech firm and avidly followed by the same enthusiasts who might consider their passions to be social media, fintech, and cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, there's a traditional auto industry that, after being pummeled by the financial crisis, has come roaring back since 2010. The four old-school companies I follow closely — General Motors, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, and Ferrari — are awash in cash and profits and have been raking it in for literally years.

One salient statistic: GM and Tesla staged initial public offerings in 2010, but since then Tesla has never posted an annual profit, while GM has made over $70 billion.


Bottom line - Tesla is run more like a hobbyist pastime than an automaker.
"Rapid growth tech firm" == "hobbyist pastime"? A $12 billion dollar annual revenue "hobbyist pastime"? Apple, Amazon, Google, etc, they're all just free time fun and games?

Are you actually serious? This is just another example of Poe's law in action, right?
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Old 27th May 2018, 12:43 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
"Rapid growth tech firm" == "hobbyist pastime"? A $12 billion dollar annual revenue "hobbyist pastime"? Apple, Amazon, Google, etc, they're all just free time fun and games?

Are you actually serious? This is just another example of Poe's law in action, right?
Tesla could run 100 billion through the front door but -0- profit is -0- any way you want to look at it. The fact that stockholders are making money from trading the stock means -0- about the ability of the company to manufacture the vehicles profitably - and above all, if Tesla wants to survive they've got to **** or get off the pot wrt manufacturing and manufacturing costs.

I've been a fan of the product from the first one I laid eyes on, the tech is amazing and the performance unbelievable, but the fact is that as an automobile manufacturer Tesla is so far behind the curve it's ridiculous.

My bet is that Tesla would do better to sell their operation to one of the big three and move on to whatever. They simply don't have enough manufacturing experience or ability to manufacture to produce the vehicles in the quantities required to be profitable.
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Old 27th May 2018, 12:55 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
"Rapid growth tech firm" == "hobbyist pastime"? A $12 billion dollar annual revenue "hobbyist pastime"? Apple, Amazon, Google, etc, they're all just free time fun and games?

Are you actually serious? This is just another example of Poe's law in action, right?
Haters gonna hate.
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Old 27th May 2018, 02:22 PM   #97
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Bottom line - Tesla is run more like a hobbyist pastime than an automaker.
What a crock your whole post....Amazon took 9 years to turn a profit ( 1994 to 2003 )

Your auto manufacturers would not even be around without an enormous bailout from the gov.
They are also stopping production of ICE vehicles in favour of EVs....who do you think has the edge in the that technology?

The traditional manufacturers are no poster boys for turning profits....even Apple had bad years....almost going out of business and Pixar/Disney no cakewalk either.
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Old 27th May 2018, 07:15 PM   #98
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Who knew Eldon Musk had so many wives that are members of the ISF?

FTR, anybody that confuses the creation of an online sales platform for products manufactured by other entities and the manufacturing of automobiles is more than a little confused.

The late great Carroll Shelby, who probably forgot more about cars than Musk will ever know, made it through only 5 years of Shelby Cobra production:

https://www.hemmings.com/magazine/hm...a/3711811.html

It sounds like the worst business plan ever.

Buy British roadsters built with old-world metal-shaping and fabrication techniques based on chassis technology last considered cutting edge when William the Conqueror invaded Mother England.

Then, install Ford V-8 engines and Borg-Warner T-10 four-speed transmissions. For the finishing touch, screw some badges emblazoned with an aggressive sounding name on this contraption and sell it as a sports car--priced higher than legitimate store-bought sports cars, like the Jaguar E-type or the Chevrolet Corvette.

For most people, this idea would make the Hindenburg disaster look like a minor setback for the dirigible-based tourism industry
...

For all of its fame, the original Cobra was produced in surprisingly low quantities--just 998 were assembled from 1961 until 1968. (655 leaf-spring 289 Cobras and 343 coil-spring 427 Cobras. These numbers include street cars, competition cars, semi-competition roadsters, etc.)

Shelby turned a profit...on the Cobras

When he attempted a second run at automobile manufacturing, not so much:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelby_Series_1

Shelby Series 1 was a high-performance roadster designed by Carroll Shelby and produced by Shelby American.

It was powered by Oldsmobile's 4.0 L L47 Aurora V8 DOHC engine. It has 320 hp (324 PS) at 6500 rpm, 290 lb⋅ft (390 N⋅m) at 5000 rpm and will do 0-60 mph (0–96 km/h) in 4.4 seconds and records 12.8 seconds in the quarter mile at 112 mph (180 km/h). Top speed is 170 mph (273.5 km/h) (15 mph (24 km/h) faster than the 427 Shelby Cobra). The 1998 car weighed 1,202 kg (2,650 lb).

The Series 1 is the only car ever designed and engineered by Carroll Shelby from a clean sheet of paper, and built from the ground up. All other Shelbys are re-engineered models produced by other manufacturers and modified by Shelby.

Prior to production of the Series 1, significant costs were incurred in testing and certification required to conform to 1999 Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. Once completed, a total of 249 production Series 1 were constructed by Shelby American, Inc., all as 1999 models.[1]

During production, Venture Corporation purchased Shelby American, Inc. The purchase included the Series 1 model, but not the rights to produce the "Continuation Series" Shelby Cobras. In 2004, after a subsequent bankruptcy by Venture Corporation (unrelated to the acquisition of Shelby American), Carroll Shelby's new company, Shelby Automobiles, Inc.., purchased the Series 1 assets for pennies on the dollar. Included in the asset purchase were enough components to produce several more complete Series 1's.

Because the 1999 Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards certificate had expired, and the cost to re-certify the car was prohibitive, all Series 1's produced after that date were completed as "component cars" and delivered with no engine or transmission. Those "component car" models built in 2005 are identified with a seven digit vehicle identification number (VIN) and were designated with a CSX5000 series serial number. The original 249 were production cars with a seventeen digit VIN.


The wiki cites the issues w/ DOT certification, which are significant, something Tesla only has a fraction of issues with, but what isn't stated is all the manufacturing difficulties encountered because of both the original design parts and the outsourced GM parts, and Shelby wasn't even attempting passenger vehicle production numbers.

Tesla, great product and tech aside, is facing the cold hard facts of auto manufacturing. If you can't manufacture or sell in quantities significant enough to turn a profit, you've got a bottomless pit, not a viable company
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Old 27th May 2018, 07:29 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
What a crock your whole post....Amazon took 9 years to turn a profit ( 1994 to 2003 )

Your auto manufacturers would not even be around without an enormous bailout from the gov.
They are also stopping production of ICE vehicles in favour of EVs....who do you think has the edge in the that technology?

The traditional manufacturers are no poster boys for turning profits....even Apple had bad years....almost going out of business and Pixar/Disney no cakewalk either.

And don't even get started on airlines; 50 airline have gone defunct in the last seven years, and that is just in the USA

Pan Am.... Pan who?
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Old 28th May 2018, 08:54 AM   #100
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It's just great that very rich people can now feel really good about themselves while messing up the environment. Of course, it's well known that such lifestyle nonsense has barely any effect on actual environmental pressure and the richer someone is the less car travel accounts proportionally in their footprint, but who cares about those things anyway, the important thing is that very rich people can now feel really good about themselves while messing up the environment. And it only cost the taxpayer a couple billion dollars in government subsidies, what a bargain!

It's also interesting that posts disputing patently ludicrous claims ascribing superhuman abilities[*] to Elon Musk just get moved to AAH. Don't dare to step on the toes of the Elon Musk fanboys, right... He has superhuman abilities we tell you!

* The design and testing of rockets, especially designed from scratch, requires several specializations which would require superhuman abilities for Elon Musk to be proficient in all of them - let alone that the time-frame we are talking about makes it entirely implausible, to put it mildly, for Elon Musk to have designed these rockets even if he were proficient in all fields and specializations required.
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Old 28th May 2018, 12:25 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It's just great that very rich people can now feel really good about themselves while messing up the environment. Of course, it's well known that such lifestyle nonsense has barely any effect on actual environmental pressure and the richer someone is the less car travel accounts proportionally in their footprint, but who cares about those things anyway, the important thing is that very rich people can now feel really good about themselves while messing up the environment. And it only cost the taxpayer a couple billion dollars in government subsidies, what a bargain!

It's also interesting that posts disputing patently ludicrous claims ascribing superhuman abilities[*] to Elon Musk just get moved to AAH. Don't dare to step on the toes of the Elon Musk fanboys, right... He has superhuman abilities we tell you!

* The design and testing of rockets, especially designed from scratch, requires several specializations which would require superhuman abilities for Elon Musk to be proficient in all of them - let alone that the time-frame we are talking about makes it entirely implausible, to put it mildly, for Elon Musk to have designed these rockets even if he were proficient in all fields and specializations required.
Nobody's claiming he designed and tested every detail of the system from scratch. Those ludicrous claims are your own invention.

And exactly how rich can you be before you become incapable of contributing to solving environmental issues? Let me guess, it's a function of whether you're Elon Musk or not.
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Old 28th May 2018, 01:38 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It's also interesting that posts disputing patently ludicrous claims ascribing superhuman abilities[*] to Elon Musk just get moved to AAH. Don't dare to step on the toes of the Elon Musk fanboys, right... He has superhuman abilities we tell you!
Looks to me they were moved because they were off topic... way off!
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Old 28th May 2018, 01:54 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
Nobody's claiming he designed and tested every detail of the system from scratch. Those ludicrous claims are your own invention.
The claim is literally that the reason that Elon Musk "now has a rocket that by all accounts flies very well" is that he "tried to make them fly, watched them fail, and went back to fix things that caused those failures."

Obviously what he actually did was get other people to do those things for him, and then took credit for their work.



Quote:
And exactly how rich can you be before you become incapable of contributing to solving environmental issues?
Contributing to solving environmental issues? Using huge loads of resources to just give a couple of rich people a way to feel good about themselves while messing up the environment does not constitute a contribution to solving environmental issues, it's just virtue signalling for rich people.

The best contribution to solving environmental issues that people in his wealth bracket can make is probably just to shoot themselves - you know, overpopulation and all that... Funny enough, overpopulation is mostly just a right-wing myth as usually invoked (such as to argue that population growth in the Third World is pressuring the Earth's environment, basically the position you'd arrive at if you're a rich racist who likes to deflect blame on poor and black/brown people - as the data shows even killing off the poorest half of the world's population wouldn't reduce footprint by more than about 10%) but it does kinda work when you apply the idea while maximizing footprint reduction per kill. Only a couple percent population reduction required if you start at the other end of the scale.

Quote:
Let me guess, it's a function of whether you're Elon Musk or not.
Not really no, though to be fair he just makes it so easy to criticize him.

Elon Musk: "Just seen a homeless person on the street, so terrible! I must do something about this!"
...
Elon Musk: "I've developed special glasses, available at $1000 / month, that filter out homeless people so rich people won't have to see them anymore."

Fanboys: "Oh just look at this god-like individual contributing to solving homelessness issues..."
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Old 28th May 2018, 01:56 PM   #104
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Looks to me they were moved because they were off topic... way off!
Either both a claim A as well as its negation are on topic or they are both off topic.
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Old 28th May 2018, 04:06 PM   #105
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Obvious hater is obvious.


(You're not related to Jules Galen by any chance?)
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Old 28th May 2018, 04:09 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
The best contribution to solving environmental issues that people in his wealth bracket can make is probably just to shoot themselves
Ah, so now we really see that what your problem is; you hate rich and successful people

Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Elon Musk: "Just seen a homeless person on the street, so terrible! I must do something about this!"
...
Elon Musk: "I've developed special glasses, available at $1000 / month, that filter out homeless people so rich people won't have to see them anymore."
A fabrication of your making... no such thing has happened.
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Old 28th May 2018, 06:48 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post

Underachiever whining sniped


The best contribution to solving environmental issues that people in his wealth bracket can make is probably just to shoot themselves
Or they could join Antifa - instant moral upgrade! Just add Mask!
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Old 28th May 2018, 10:08 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
"Underachiever whining snipped"

Nailed it!!!
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Old 28th May 2018, 10:39 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
The claim is literally that the reason that Elon Musk "now has a rocket that by all accounts flies very well" is that he "tried to make them fly, watched them fail, and went back to fix things that caused those failures."

Obviously what he actually did was get other people to do those things for him, and then took credit for their work.
As one who gets very critical of some things Muskian, I'm happy to describe this as "utter bollocks". Was Washington a great general? It doesn't matter, let's just allow that he was. Nobody is suggesting that he was out there with musket and sword personally slaying the enemy in battle. You'd just say "Washington marched to X and ... Washington retreated ... Washington advanced ..." It's just everyday shorthand to talk of Musk and his businesses in the terms you object to.

eta: In the interests of balance :

Tesla is facing intense pressure to abandon the name "Autopilot" for its semi-autonomous driving technology following a series of crashes, at least one fatal, involving Tesla vehicles that were operating in that mode.

“Tesla has repeatedly exaggerated the autonomous capabilities of its Autopilot technology, boosting sales at the expense of consumer safety,” said Center for Auto Safety Executive Director Jason Levine. “The FTC must step in and expose this charade before more Americans are injured or killed.”

Musk has himself been filmed driving entirely 'hands off', and has made wild claims about Autopilot's ability, both current and future. It's in areas such as these that he heads towards Barnum country.
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Old 29th May 2018, 04:19 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Ah, so now we really see that what your problem is; you hate rich and successful people
All that Musk has been successful in is stealing from his workers and from society at large. But now we really see what your problem is: you love crooks and thieves. And let me guess, when they steal like $50 you suddenly don't love them, but when they steal millions/billions then you do and call them "successful people".

ETA: he's also been successful in leaving an unsustainable environmental footprint, you know, as opposed to almost all the world's population who don't.
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Old 29th May 2018, 04:25 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
As one who gets very critical of some things Muskian, I'm happy to describe this as "utter bollocks".
That's nice, I don't care about your love affair with capitalism. It's observably true that Musk has not done the work he is claimed to have done, but merely stole the result of the work of his workers. Which is, of course, the entire basis for capitalism as a system. Fascinating how you call an actual description of what happened "utter bollocks" but not nonsensical ideological descriptions as JayUtah was giving.

In sum, it's hardly my problem that you have your heads so full of ideology that you've become simply incapable of describing the world in any accurate manner.

Quote:
It's just everyday shorthand to talk of Musk and his businesses in the terms you object to.
Of course it is, the ruling ideology is the ideology of the ruling class, after all. Since when is the mere fact that some ideology is the norm in some society an argument for refusing to describe the world accurately? Just because some society is deeply Christian doesn't mean that saying "species appeared through evolution rather than supernatural creation" is "utter bollocks."
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Old 29th May 2018, 04:26 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
All that Musk has been successful in is stealing from his workers and from society at large. But now we really see what your problem is: you love crooks and thieves. And let me guess, when they steal like $50 you suddenly don't love them, but when they steal millions/billions then you do and call them "successful people".
I see one of your heroes is Mikhail Bakunin? That tells me everything I need to know about you.

I've wasted enough time replying to you; you're not worth the time or effort.
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Old 29th May 2018, 04:29 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I see one of your heroes is Mikhail Bakunin? That tells me everything I need to know about you.

I've wasted enough time replying to you; you're not worth the time or effort.
Read as: I know I can't win any debate on this so I'm chickening out while trying to save face.
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Old 29th May 2018, 05:26 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
That's nice, I don't care about your love affair with capitalism.
That's good, because I haven't got one.

Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It's observably true that Musk has not done the work he is claimed to have done, but merely stole the result of the work of his workers.
Nobody is claiming he did the design, engineering, construction etc. You're suggesting that that is what others are claiming, and it's absurd.
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Old 29th May 2018, 05:37 AM   #115
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a live marxist hairshirter....well he got his screen name right.
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Old 29th May 2018, 06:41 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Nobody is claiming he did the design, engineering, construction etc. You're suggesting that that is what others are claiming, and it's absurd.
I think the idea is that stock options and salaries = slavery. Bonkers.
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Old 29th May 2018, 04:47 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
a live marxist hairshirter....well he got his screen name right.
Originally Posted by Octavo View Post
I think the idea is that stock options and salaries = slavery. Bonkers.
Arguing with idiots will only drag you down to their level of stupid, where they will beat you with their extensive experience.
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Old 29th May 2018, 05:32 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Arguing with idiots will only drag you down to their level of stupid.
I've been considering the saying "Never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself."

The Musk-hate fanatics here are doing more to undermine their own position than I possibly could. I mean, advocating for the death of everyone with more wealth than they like? And that fantastic reinterpretation of JayUtah's post really demonstrates that a serious attempt at discussion with them is pointless anyway. They clearly have no interest in what you're actually saying if you're not agreeing with them.
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Old 29th May 2018, 11:45 PM   #119
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Musk the thief, stealing from his staff again, by claiming he's the sole engineer responsible for all Raptor development...

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...783474688?s=19
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Old 30th May 2018, 04:32 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
All that Musk has been successful in is stealing from his workers and from society at large. But now we really see what your problem is: you love crooks and thieves. And let me guess, when they steal like $50 you suddenly don't love them, but when they steal millions/billions then you do and call them "successful people".

ETA: he's also been successful in leaving an unsustainable environmental footprint, you know, as opposed to almost all the world's population who don't.

Dude, you can't blame one successful, seemingly quite nice, very clever bloke for the whole damn system. Which is what you seem to be doing here. As far as I can read your ire through your posts, you object to anyone who is successful in the business world by gathering capital and delegating tasks. That's just the way life is, I'm afraid. Musk has made some blisteringly good choices at SpaceX, not least of which is the selection of his employees.

However you cut it, with regard to getting into space more cheaply, Musk has done brilliantly. I think you're projecting your problem with the system onto one, very, very clever bloke, who has worked that system rather brilliantly.
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