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Old 30th May 2018, 04:46 AM   #121
Crossbow
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Originally Posted by Octavo View Post
Musk the thief, stealing from his staff again, by claiming he's the sole engineer responsible for all Raptor development...

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...783474688?s=19
Well, ...

It sure did not take you very long to go from an avid Musk fan to a serious Musk critic.
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Old 30th May 2018, 04:51 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
Well, ...

It sure did not take you very long to go from an avid Musk fan to a serious Musk critic.
You know, I just might be starting to "get" satire!
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Old 30th May 2018, 03:00 PM   #123
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Well, this got weird. Back to the op, this thread as just convinced me I'm right. Musk isn't the problem, its the fan boys.

Tesla, is a car company valued like a tech start up which it sort of is except most tech start ups lack the capital costs of a car company. The valuation is not really rational for a car company that hasn't made a profit and really doesn't show signs of making a profit. If he can pull of making a mass market sedan/economy car, it will secede and the fan boys will have been right but that is by no means a sure thing.

Space X, is promising but to my knowledge still has the issues that Tesla does.

Hyper loop is a rehashed fantasy that's over a hundred years old. It could work but will probably cost an order of magnitude more than he envisioned when it first hit the news. Possible but not practical.

His boring company, he thinks he can do something for a tenth the cost of what experts in the field of tunneling think it will take. Maybe something will come from it but its not likely. Musk is not a civil engineer and has doesn't seem to be aware of what he doesn't know in the field.

This is like a lot of very intelligent experts end up doing. They think expertise in one field translates to another. See Linus Pauling.
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Old 30th May 2018, 03:37 PM   #124
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Teslas main issue is that it is trying to expand to meet demand, whilst still producing new models. So the Series 3 is having production issues, yet they are now looking to start producing the Semis. This is also while they have a production choke point in the battery production. The ideas on scaling up are good (though they have found issues of over-automating the production line), but they are struggling to get the parts to be able to expand at the rate they want. I work in a company producing automated systems for drug discovery. We have had to move away from the bearing manufacturer that we tended to use because of supply issues as their stock was diverted to fuel expansions for both Amazon and Tesla.

SpaceX is in another niche, they have frozen one design to provide the bulk of their capacity over the next five years (in part enforced by the requirements for man-rating the Block 5 boosters). Whilst they are working on the next design they don't have the expansion pressure that Tesla has.

Hyperloop he has sold off to Virgin.

Boring Company is just a plaything (I really doubt he will find a new super-fast boring method)
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Old 30th May 2018, 04:04 PM   #125
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SpaceX is in a very good position production wise due to their first stage reuse, they're rolling out Block 5 and still have usable Block 4 cores sitting in their warehouses. They're profitable, burning through their backlog, getting Iridium's constellation up faster than originally planned (including ones that were originally going up on a Dneper), and expect to have significantly fewer launches next year due to having largely cleared out their manifest, after which they'll be ramping up Starlink launches. That'll be a mass production project that could very well run into production issues, but it's a few years early to be crying doom about that.

The Boring Company seems to be making real progress dealing with all the permitting and legal issues of arranging for tunnel construction while actively digging holes with digging machines, so they appear to have some idea what's involved in the process. Their real achievement may just be mustering the will and organization required to cut through all the red tape involved and coordinate everything required for these large scale tunnel projects. They might not achieve all their goals, but they're certainly not just some guys who know nothing about digging tunnels. I wish them luck and hope they don't die of papercuts.
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Old 31st May 2018, 12:48 AM   #126
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Tesla, and some very recent specifics -

1) "A Tesla Model S that was involved in a road traffic collision while set to autopilot mode earlier this month accelerated just prior to the crash, a police assessment report has revealed.
...
Investigators now believe the Tesla sped up for just over three seconds before hitting the stationary firetruck, according to The Associated Press, which obtained the internal police document on Thursday"

2) NTSB calls upon Tesla to change the name of its 'Autopilot' (see upthread)

3) "A Tesla car has crashed into a parked police car in California.
The driver suffered minor injuries and told police she was using the car's driver-assisting Autopilot mode.
The crash has similarities to other incidents, including a fatal crash in Florida where the driver's "over-reliance on vehicle automation" was determined as a probable cause."

Add in the other crashes and mishaps and ask why Tesla still insist - despite loud calls from many quarters over the last few years - on calling the facility 'Autopilot'. It's a form of bluster aimed at disguising a lack of substance, combined with plausible deniability. Customers get the wrong idea from the Autopilot name and from the demos and claims of Musk himself, then Tesla fall back on the 'stay in control at all times' mantra.
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Old 31st May 2018, 04:28 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
SpaceX. You dismissed this before, but now it's obvious you never actually stopped to think about it.
Reinventing the wheel...hardly innovative.
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Old 31st May 2018, 04:32 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
Tesla is one of his great accomplishments. You can not possibly claim it's anything else. That doesn't mean its capabilities are limitless and it will never encounter obstacles or make mistakes. Their production troubles have put them in a position where they can't sell the low-end, low-profit margin vehicles at this time. That doesn't negate everything else they've done.
I can walk into any car dealer, put down my cash, and drive away the car of my choice.

Tesla you put down a money to go on a waiting list and MAYBE some time down the road you might get sent a car.

Musk can't do what Detroit and others have been doing for 100 years.
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Old 31st May 2018, 04:44 PM   #129
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Innovative new company runs differently from hundred year old established industry giant. So what?
"Innovative new company" that can't turn a profit even off high-dollar merchandise, let alone deliver on the promise of affordable electric cars for the masses.

I thought you were a capitalist.
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Old 31st May 2018, 05:09 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Tesla, and some very recent specifics -

1) "A Tesla Model S that was involved in a road traffic collision while set to autopilot mode earlier this month accelerated just prior to the crash, a police assessment report has revealed.
...
Investigators now believe the Tesla sped up for just over three seconds before hitting the stationary firetruck, according to The Associated Press, which obtained the internal police document on Thursday"

2) NTSB calls upon Tesla to change the name of its 'Autopilot' (see upthread)

3) "A Tesla car has crashed into a parked police car in California.
The driver suffered minor injuries and told police she was using the car's driver-assisting Autopilot mode.
The crash has similarities to other incidents, including a fatal crash in Florida where the driver's "over-reliance on vehicle automation" was determined as a probable cause."

Add in the other crashes and mishaps and ask why Tesla still insist - despite loud calls from many quarters over the last few years - on calling the facility 'Autopilot'. It's a form of bluster aimed at disguising a lack of substance, combined with plausible deniability. Customers get the wrong idea from the Autopilot name and from the demos and claims of Musk himself, then Tesla fall back on the 'stay in control at all times' mantra.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?sour....0.W9v6FnHAaTU

Forming the post took more time than the search did
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Old 31st May 2018, 05:13 PM   #131
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Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive View Post
Reinventing the wheel...hardly innovative.
Please explain, they are wildly innovative to the point that it has ALL of the other launch providers freaking out and trying to do them down. They now have very high reliability, lower costs and plans to progress whilst the other providers have been left standing and are only looking to catch up with B4, never mind B5.
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Old 31st May 2018, 05:22 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive View Post
The latest iteration of his Hyperloop scam had design teams from all over the place signing over the intellectual property rights to their designs for free as an entry condition. For a contest with no prize to win, other than braggng rights.

Free R&D.
Because they are amateur providers such as universities, most of which would be obliged to do so anyway due to their charters. Hyperloop development so far has been open-source. Hardly a crime.
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Old 1st June 2018, 02:46 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive View Post
Musk can't do what Detroit and others have been doing for 100 years.
I wouldn't be looking at "Detroit" as an example of commercial success!
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Old 1st June 2018, 07:09 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I wouldn't be looking at "Detroit" as an example of commercial success!
A lot more successful than Tesla, let's be realistic. More successful launch of an actual electric vehicle for the masses as well.
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Old 1st June 2018, 08:11 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
With billions in public money help

••••

Yes, Tesla has had that too.
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Old 1st June 2018, 06:13 PM   #136
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Ummm not in the form of a bailout of their failing business due to rather gross mismanagement ....note as a foil ....Ford didn't need it.

Let's go back to a basic reality ....ICE is dead and let the competition for the millions of EV and hybrid vehicles for the planet begin in earnest.
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Old 1st June 2018, 08:05 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by Disbelief View Post
A lot more successful than Tesla, let's be realistic. More successful launch of an actual electric vehicle for the masses as well.
Err, I was referring to the city of Detroit (perhaps I should not have used quote marks)

In 1950, Detroit was the wealthiest major city per capita in the nation. Now it is the poorest.

Detroit is an economic basket case, that survived only as long as "yank tanks" were popular. It is now a crime city, infested with political and economic corruption everywhere you look.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...n-unemployment


Detroit is dying because ICE is dying... going the way of the dinosaur. Already there are countries in Europe planning to have no ICE driven vehicles The Netherlands intends to ban them by 2025
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Old 5th June 2018, 01:15 PM   #138
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Musk for President!!!
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Old 5th June 2018, 02:03 PM   #139
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Now THAT would be a relief
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Old 6th June 2018, 02:36 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Err, I was referring to the city of Detroit (perhaps I should not have used quote marks)

In 1950, Detroit was the wealthiest major city per capita in the nation. Now it is the poorest.

Detroit is an economic basket case, that survived only as long as "yank tanks" were popular. It is now a crime city, infested with political and economic corruption everywhere you look.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...n-unemployment


Detroit is dying because ICE is dying... going the way of the dinosaur. Already there are countries in Europe planning to have no ICE driven vehicles The Netherlands intends to ban them by 2025

Detroit is dying more because of sprawl, not because of ICE. You do realize that the first mass market EV is built just a little north of Detroit. You also realize that one of the leaders in AVs is GM, based out of Detroit. All manufacturers are moving towards EVs, but as things transition profits will still come from ICE for a time.
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Old 6th June 2018, 02:41 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
Ummm not in the form of a bailout of their failing business due to rather gross mismanagement ....note as a foil ....Ford didn't need it.

Let's go back to a basic reality ....ICE is dead and let the competition for the millions of EV and hybrid vehicles for the planet begin in earnest.
Ford didn't need the bailout because they took a chance and mortgaged the future, and were fortunate with the timing just before the banks crumbled. Please don't disregard the fact that the banking crisis really pushed them over the edge. Tesla also fails to make a profit, so not sure why they are managed so well in your mind.

Finally, ICE is far from dead but hopefully working that way. I have a hybrid and love it, and wish that there were many more coming. While everyone is focused on strictly EVs, I think hybrids make a lot of sense for transitioning.
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Old 8th June 2018, 08:59 AM   #142
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Hmm... I must say I'm now getting ambivalent about that whole Tesla thing. Maybe these things could be hacked and put to better use, such as breaking police barricades or something.
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Old 8th June 2018, 10:03 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Err, I was referring to the city of Detroit (perhaps I should not have used quote marks)

In 1950, Detroit was the wealthiest major city per capita in the nation. Now it is the poorest.

Detroit is an economic basket case, that survived only as long as "yank tanks" were popular. It is now a crime city, infested with political and economic corruption everywhere you look.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...n-unemployment


Detroit is dying because ICE is dying... going the way of the dinosaur. Already there are countries in Europe planning to have no ICE driven vehicles The Netherlands intends to ban them by 2025
Well, for two more weeks I still work in Detroit and in the auto industry. (I am changing jobs but will still be in an auto industry job but working for a Japanese company.)

Detroit wad deteriorating long before anybody heard of an SUV. As already stated, sprawl was a big part of it. The industry failed to anticipate the rise of Japan was another. Even the government played a roll because they did not want all that industry in one convenient target for an ICBM.

Detroit is not a basket case any longer. The city is now out of office space. Everything that can be restored is being restored or will be torn down to make more space. Even the old model of ruin porn called the Michigan Central Terminal just changed hands and will likely become office space for Ford.

Housing in the city is starting to improve but has a very long way to go. The school district is still headed in the wrong direction at this point.

Also the US auto industry is not just Detroit and is an international business. Our CEO gave a talk a few months ago about the future of our company which is a tier one supplier based in Detroit but with plants in 4 continents. Electric vehicles will take over the luxury brands in Europe first. Then the whole Asian market top to bottom. Last will be the Americas. Fuel prices and environmental standards are why the Americas will be last.

The general view point from here about Tesla is that it is like the Apple Newton. Innovative and a step in the right direction but not quite right. They will likely fade but you will see ideas from there show up in other companies products.
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Old 8th June 2018, 01:40 PM   #144
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I don't know a lot about EVs but the "ICE is dying" comment made me wonder - where is the power to charge all those batteries coming from? As far as I understand it (which is not very) some of them will still be relying on ICE power plants.

In clicking around I found an article I didn't really understand. It talked about using EVs to serve as a kind of reserve power for the grid. I didn't understand how, because the EV is still sucking up energy, and even if it was producing power for the grid, the vehicles are likely to be in use during the same peak periods when the grid needs more power. But mostly, it sounded like a perpetual-motion machine; something has to be moving to generate electricity, doesn't it? And EV's motion is not captured as electricity: No alternator.

I didn't want to get too far afield from the topic, which I don't know much about, but since others have brought it up maybe people here are willing to educate me. ... I have a question that may sound stupid but here goes: I drive my car for a little bit the battery is charged - due to the movement of the car, captured by the alternator. What if I had 2 car batteries? Would they both fully charge? If so, could I then use my extra car battery for power at home? Not for AC, probably, but maybe for lights or streaming devices. So: Is there any way to harness the motion of vehicles themselves to capture more electricity? If EVs do not generate electricity how can they strengthen the grid? By being a diffuse network of storage devices?

The changes to infrastructure may require a little more social engineering than Americans are used to. The gas-up-and-go freedom is part of the love affair with cars. I wonder if technology is moving faster in other parts of the world where people accept more central planning?
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Old 8th June 2018, 02:29 PM   #145
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Latest I heard was that the Tesla that shunted the parked cop car was, indeed, in so-called 'autopilot' mode.

Mr Musk, please change that 'autopilot' name thing before the authorities change it for you. Think of your stock price, if nothing else.
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Old 8th June 2018, 07:28 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
I don't know a lot about EVs but the "ICE is dying" comment made me wonder - where is the power to charge all those batteries coming from? As far as I understand it (which is not very) some of them will still be relying on ICE power plants.

In clicking around I found an article I didn't really understand. It talked about using EVs to serve as a kind of reserve power for the grid. I didn't understand how, because the EV is still sucking up energy, and even if it was producing power for the grid, the vehicles are likely to be in use during the same peak periods when the grid needs more power. But mostly, it sounded like a perpetual-motion machine; something has to be moving to generate electricity, doesn't it? And EV's motion is not captured as electricity: No alternator.

I didn't want to get too far afield from the topic, which I don't know much about, but since others have brought it up maybe people here are willing to educate me. ... I have a question that may sound stupid but here goes: I drive my car for a little bit the battery is charged - due to the movement of the car, captured by the alternator. What if I had 2 car batteries? Would they both fully charge? If so, could I then use my extra car battery for power at home? Not for AC, probably, but maybe for lights or streaming devices. So: Is there any way to harness the motion of vehicles themselves to capture more electricity? If EVs do not generate electricity how can they strengthen the grid? By being a diffuse network of storage devices?

The changes to infrastructure may require a little more social engineering than Americans are used to. The gas-up-and-go freedom is part of the love affair with cars. I wonder if technology is moving faster in other parts of the world where people accept more central planning?
The engine runs the alternator, it's not turning motion of the vehicle into energy. Just the opposite, mechanical power that goes to turning the alternator is unavailable for turning the wheels. Hybrid and electric vehicles can use regenerative braking to recover mechanical power that has already been used to put the vehicle in motion. This is an improvement to overall efficiency, not a source of energy.

About the grid reserve power: EVs serve as energy storage, not production. Demand isn't constant, the batteries charge in periods of low demand and provide power in periods of high demand.

EVs that use electricity produced by power plants still have an advantage over ICEs. The power plants use large heat engines packed with stuff for improving efficiency and reducing emissions, they are far cleaner and more efficient than something that has to fit within a vehicle. Even the emissions they do produce are generally emitted in a location that is less problematic...a distant power plant won't fill a congested city with smog. You can use ICE vehicles as generators supplying low voltage DC power, but it would be one of the worst things you could come up with to supplement the power grid.
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Old 8th June 2018, 08:02 PM   #147
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Even coal plants producing electricity for EVs are still more efficient than an ICE engine.

They also tend to be away from city centres as well tho that does not help the carbon load overall.
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Old 17th June 2018, 10:29 AM   #148
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Quote:
Elon Musk continues to put his own money where his mouth is.
The billionaire Tesla CEO dug into his pockets to buy additional shares of his electric car company.

For the second time in two months Musk disclosed in an SEC filing that he bought Tesla stock on the open market, spending $24.9 million to buy 72,500 shares on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In May, he spent $9.9 million to buy 33,000 shares of Tesla (TSLA).
Quote:
His assurances about production levels helped to lift Tesla shares, which are now up about 40% from its recent 12-month low.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/14/tech...ses/index.html

Lots of short sellers crying in their beer.
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Old 17th June 2018, 01:04 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
Lots of short sellers crying in their beer.
Good... and they just don't learn do they?
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Old 17th June 2018, 01:21 PM   #150
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same thing with Apple and Wallstreet ....no convincing them ....
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Old 17th June 2018, 05:21 PM   #151
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Actually never occurred to mr but Tesla buying back his own stock ..likely from short sellers...makes brilliant sense.

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Tesla stock has risen from around 280 to around 340. And shorts have lost more than 2 billion dollars in value during the same period. Though just 3 percent of short shares have returned during that time, shorts are starting to feel a bit of a squeeze.

But this small squeeze is likely just a prelude to what will happen when Tesla Model 3 production ramps above 5,000 per week and if Tesla manages to achieve profitability in Q3 and Q4. If Tesla meets those two goals then it will end up milking shorts for billions of clean energy investment dollars. And if/when that happens we can thank the shorts for their unwitting clean energy investment dollars and for helping to fight human-caused climate change.

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/...estment-money/
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Old 18th June 2018, 11:27 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
Actually never occurred to mr but Tesla buying back his own stock ..likely from short sellers...makes brilliant sense.




https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/...estment-money/
And when the money used to purchase those shares comes from a loan generated with Tesla stock as collateral it's even better:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/416...as-stock-price

Elon Musk famously does not take a salary from Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Instead his compensation comes in the form of stock options (the millions he’s received so far and the millions more he could receive under the new CEO compensation package approved this year) and appreciation of his Tesla shares.

But it takes a lot of money to live the billionaire lifestyle with 5 Beverly Hills mansions, a private jet, fancy gasoline-powered sports cars, and the like. Musk could simply sell some of his shares to raise cash, but then he would face a very significant tax bill and decrease his ownership control over the company.

Instead, Musk has borrowed increasingly large sums against his Tesla shares to support his lifestyle and fund his investments


Year

Total Borrowing Secured by TSLA Shares

2012

$50 million

2013

$300 million

2014

$300 million

2015

$475 million

2016

$486 million

2017

$625 million


Data sourced from Tesla Prospectus SEC filings
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Old 21st June 2018, 01:08 PM   #153
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More Tesla hi-jinks:

https://jalopnik.com/heres-the-wild-...-sa-1827017800

Late Wednesday, after Tesla filed a lawsuit against former Gigafactory technician Marty Tripp, the ex-technician shared emails with the Washington Post that highlighted a heated back-and-forth between him and CEO Elon Musk. At first, it seemed like Musk fired off a quick jab before the suit was filed, calling Tripp a “horrible person.” But a copy of the entire exchange provided to Jalopnik offers a more illuminating dialogue—with Tripp acting first.
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Old 24th June 2018, 12:32 AM   #154
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SpaceX just won a USAF contract for a Falcon Heavy launch. Another punishing blow to ULA. They lost out, bidding Atlas V. Ouch....

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-win...-heavy-launch/
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Old 24th June 2018, 04:13 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by Octavo View Post
SpaceX just won a USAF contract for a Falcon Heavy launch. Another punishing blow to ULA. They lost out, bidding Atlas V. Ouch....

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-win...-heavy-launch/
Add that DoD payload to the one they already have coming up later this year, this time with all B5 cores, so hopefully these three cores will have bigger ignition fluid tanks so that they can recover all three successfully.

NET Mon, 19th Nov 2018
Payload - STP-2
Customer - USAF
Orbit - MEO
Launch Pad - KSC, LC-39A
Launcher - Falcon Heavy B5

And the following month

NET Dec 2018
Payload - ArabSat 6A
Customer - Arab Satellite Communications Organization (ArabSat)
Orbit - GTO
Launch Pad - KSC, LC-39A
Launcher - Falcon Heavy B5

Also, I understand that SpaceX are building another drone ship, to be called "A Shortfall of Gravitas" (Musk must be a real fan of Iain Banks' SciFi)

The idea is for some Falcon Heavy missions, they intend to recover two booster and expend the third. Apparently, according to Musk, this configuration carries only about a 10% performance penalty compared with a fully expended Falcon 9.

I wonder if they will build a fourth drone ship so that they can fly this configuration from Vandenberg... they could call it "No More Mr Nice Guy"
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Old 24th June 2018, 06:44 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
The idea is for some Falcon Heavy missions, they intend to recover two booster and expend the third. Apparently, according to Musk, this configuration carries only about a 10% performance penalty compared with a fully expended Falcon 9.
You mean a fully expended Falcon Heavy. They wouldn't bother strapping side boosters onto an expendable core booster if it resulted in a performance penalty.

I think expending boosters is going to be rather rare. The new USAF flight could fit on an expendable F9, but is going on a FH instead because it allows the boosters to be recovered. The USAF STP-2 launch is a whole pile of satellites that could be split among multiple launches if it required expending a core. There aren't many single-piece payloads large enough to require expending a core.
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Old 24th June 2018, 07:42 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
You mean a fully expended Falcon Heavy. They wouldn't bother strapping side boosters onto an expendable core booster if it resulted in a performance penalty.

I think expending boosters is going to be rather rare. The new USAF flight could fit on an expendable F9, but is going on a FH instead because it allows the boosters to be recovered. The USAF STP-2 launch is a whole pile of satellites that could be split among multiple launches if it required expending a core. There aren't many single-piece payloads large enough to require expending a core.
This.

Falcon Heavy is there to fill the Falcon 9 expendable gap. The bet here is that it's cheaper to catch and refurbish 3 1st stages, than it is to throw one away. Ballsy and fits with what they've been saying about reusability. Again, ULA has got to be worried.
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Old 24th June 2018, 12:53 PM   #158
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Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
You mean a fully expended Falcon Heavy. They wouldn't bother strapping side boosters onto an expendable core booster if it resulted in a performance penalty.
Oops, yes

Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
I think expending boosters is going to be rather rare. The new USAF flight could fit on an expendable F9, but is going on a FH instead because it allows the boosters to be recovered. The USAF STP-2 launch is a whole pile of satellites that could be split among multiple launches if it required expending a core. There aren't many single-piece payloads large enough to require expending a core.
Agree.

The next mission is CRS-15 slated for 4 days time. That appears to be the last B4 core and they have no plans to recover it. The remaining 15 launches listed for 2018, and the seven listed up to May 2019 are all B5 cores. IMO, they will only expend these cores if they have to launch something really big (especially into GTO or interplanetary), or if a B5 core is nearing the end of its life.
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Old 29th June 2018, 04:01 AM   #159
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Another successful launch by SpaceX and all signs point towards the 5k/week production ramp of Model 3 being achieved this Q.

Shorts creating as much FUD as possible.
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Old 29th June 2018, 04:27 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by Octavo View Post
Another successful launch by SpaceX
....and the last Block 4 bites the dust ocean

From here on in, almost all launches should see booster recovery
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