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Old 30th August 2018, 04:22 PM   #1
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how-much-alcohol-safe-drink-there-no-healthy-amount-

https://www.newsweek.com/how-much-al...-warns-1088272

But it's a meta study, so I'm not clear on whether twas poor health what drove people to drink. My sister the nurse calls it "self medicating".
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Old 30th August 2018, 06:05 PM   #2
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I read this very article just last week.

I've been concerned ever since a friend suffered acute pancreatitis early this month, but I can't let go of the buzz every week or so to keep me relaxed when going out.
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Old 30th August 2018, 09:26 PM   #3
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My brother-in-law died of liver failure from alcoholism last week.

I quit alcohol on January 31 2018, and his death reinforces my decision.

I didn't ever get drunk, and I'd like to be able to drink in moderation, but my habit was a couple of drinks every day, and no health guidelines say that's a moderate amount.

The dose makes the poison, yada yada yada.

To me, the thing with alcohol is not so much if it's poison in any amount, but that it affects you to want to drink more, which leads to dangerous doses and habits.
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Old 31st August 2018, 06:37 AM   #4
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Alcohol lowers blood sugar. I drink one large glass per day with dinner, and take 20 unit less insulin. I'm 65 years old, diabetic for 40 years. I've outlived my tee-total brother, and will outlive my drinks-less-than-me brother. Both cancers. My diabetes care providers are amazed at what good shape I am in for being diabetic that long.

But enough with the anecdotes. Anybody see the actual Lancet article? Isn't Lancet pay-walled? Is there a graph? RR at the left end, possibly a very low number? 2 drinks/day = RR of 1.01? Is there any discussion of subject selection, like using studies that eliminate anybody that might be self medicating for chronic disease? 700 studies in the Meta, how many were sponsored by WCTU? I'm skeptical of the "Zero" claim.
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Old 31st August 2018, 06:50 AM   #5
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Here's the actual article. The choicest bit is Fig. 4.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...310-2/fulltext

tl;dr - lies through statistics. Their results show that alcohol consumption makes no substantive difference in terms of chronic disease until you start averaging around 4 real drinks per day (8-9 using their numbers), except in the case of tuberculosis which they lean on in figure 5 to tilt it all back to 0. So if you aren't at risk of contracting tuberculosis in your daily life, and you aren't going to drive with that alcohol in your system (which produces far higher relative risk numbers), bottom's up!

[ETA] I'm not being entirely fair - they do show that the common wisdom of a drink a day generally being good for you isn't true. But it's not really all that bad for you, either, and it certainly doesn't justify the alarmism in the OP's link and the other "science journalism" takes on the study I've seen.

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Old 31st August 2018, 09:07 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
Here's the actual article. The choicest bit is Fig. 4.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...310-2/fulltext

tl;dr - lies through statistics. Their results show that alcohol consumption makes no substantive difference in terms of chronic disease until you start averaging around 4 real drinks per day (8-9 using their numbers), except in the case of tuberculosis which they lean on in figure 5 to tilt it all back to 0. So if you aren't at risk of contracting tuberculosis in your daily life, and you aren't going to drive with that alcohol in your system (which produces far higher relative risk numbers), bottom's up!

[ETA] I'm not being entirely fair - they do show that the common wisdom of a drink a day generally being good for you isn't true. But it's not really all that bad for you, either, and it certainly doesn't justify the alarmism in the OP's link and the other "science journalism" takes on the study I've seen.
Thanks for the link Beelz. Maybe it's JAMA with the paywall, not BMA's Lancet?

Yeah, I notice that some of their mean lines start at RR of .9. 6 drinks/day is the limit of some classes to stay at RR 1.

Looks to me like if you have worries about diabetes, clogged arteries, or breast cancer, it's bottoms up!

Personally, with diabetes and 7 stents, I'll drink to that!

Ha, something about the article in the OP pinged my skepdar. Funny how the article for the Masses was so alarmist. Anybody surprised?

And here is a thought I had about U shaped curves: They are a confounding of two different factors. In this case, one factor is helped by alcohol, and another factor is worsened. Say, two kinds of diabetes genes? Two causes of ischemia? Which one are YOU?
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Old 31st August 2018, 09:11 AM   #7
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I'm reminded of a study about diabetics and eating fruit. Males who ate the most fruit had a 2% higher death rate. Females, 3% lower. Headlines: "Diabetics should Eat more fruit!!!".

Yeah Skeptdar!
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Old 1st September 2018, 08:25 AM   #8
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Was the title of this thread written whilst drunk?
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Old 1st September 2018, 08:30 AM   #9
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It appears to have been dashed off in a hurry.
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Old 1st September 2018, 12:40 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Was the title of this thread written whilst drunk?
I took a quick shot at c&p'ing the headline from Newsweek. I guess I should have guzzled for the Lancet article instead.

Now I have to chug on down the road in search of a better vinu. Prost!
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Old 1st September 2018, 01:13 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
...... My diabetes care providers are amazed at what good shape I am in for being diabetic that long.........
Really?

Originally Posted by casebro View Post
..........Personally, with diabetes and 7 stents, I'll drink to that!......
285 lbs (20 and a half stone, 130 kgs)

That's an interesting notion of "good shape".
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Old 1st September 2018, 07:55 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Really?



285 lbs (20 and a half stone, 130 kgs)

That's an interesting notion of "good shape".
All things are relative. One bro died of cancer at 54. The other was a real athlete, is now stage 4 colon cancer. He'll probably make it to 64.

Me? Diabetic since 25, 40 years now. Still have all my toes. Ejection fraction 70%, no new clogs in 12 years.

And one thing about being obese- you life longer with that stored fat when you get terminal with cancer.


Roll your fat shaming into little balls....
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Old 2nd September 2018, 12:10 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
All things are relative. One bro died of cancer at 54. The other was a real athlete, is now stage 4 colon cancer. He'll probably make it to 64.....
So your claim "in good shape" really is just "haven't got cancer".

Quote:
Roll your fat shaming into little balls....
I didn't do that. It was your claim that you were in good shape, which is a blatant lie.
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Old 2nd September 2018, 03:22 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post


I didn't do that. It was your claim that you were in good shape, which is a blatant lie.
He claimed his diabetes care providers "are amazed at what good shape" he's in after suffering from this disease for quite some time.

Please note the qualifiers.

You do understand English no?
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Old 2nd September 2018, 05:41 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by ProBonoShill View Post
......You do understand English no?
........Never mind.
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Old 2nd September 2018, 06:13 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by ProBonoShill View Post
He claimed his diabetes care providers "are amazed at what good shape" he's in after suffering from this disease for quite some time.

Please note the qualifiers.

You do understand English no?
Another data point: She did a heart attack risk assessment formula. I don't know what MikeG thinks of "33% in the next ten years", but it sounds normal for a 65 year old man, when the norm is a life span of 75 and 40% of us die of heart attack. So I'm "in great shape for a guy that has had diabetes for 40 years, and stents and obesity".

Kidney function is stable. My largest 'chance of death concern' is cancer.

eta: Back on OP, I've got a three gallon batch of prickly pear wine bubbling away in the fermenter. To Life!
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Old 2nd September 2018, 06:17 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
All things are relative. One bro died of cancer at 54. The other was a real athlete, is now stage 4 colon cancer. He'll probably make it to 64.

Me? Diabetic since 25, 40 years now. Still have all my toes. Ejection fraction 70%, no new clogs in 12 years.

And one thing about being obese- you life longer with that stored fat when you get terminal with cancer.


Roll your fat shaming into little balls....
Not a defense for alcohol, but I too have been type 1 diabetic for 42 years, have remained relatively active, and have enjoyed a cocktail of mixed drinks or beer/wine etc equal to about a six pack every night. My A1C averages about 6.5, and I have yet to undergo any kind of corrective cardiovascular surgery that has since either killed or plagued many of my friends and relatives. Cancer does run in my family as well, but to this day i've suffered no such event. (i've passed the Cologuard test twice so far). This is not to say i'm without the usual long term damage caused by elevated glucose levels i.e., loss of sensation in the lower extremities, bleeds within the eye's (retinapathy), along with more minor maladies, but all considering, i've without a doubt exceeded the medical communities predicted life expectancy by about 30 years. Maybe its in the genes? If so, again, I should have been dead by now. .. Cheers.
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Old 2nd September 2018, 10:34 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
All things are relative. One bro died of cancer at 54. The other was a real athlete, is now stage 4 colon cancer. He'll probably make it to 64.

Me? Diabetic since 25, 40 years now. Still have all my toes. Ejection fraction 70%, no new clogs in 12 years.

And one thing about being obese- you life longer with that stored fat when you get terminal with cancer.


Roll your fat shaming into little balls....
I find round a pleasant shape! As to the amount of alcohol that is healthy, as a nurse, I've seen drunks that are way healthier than teetotalers.


IMHO if you live to a ripe old age with all your faculties and mobility, good for you. Why stop an 80 old from drinking, smoking, or eating too much?


It alcohol becomes a problem at a younger age, seek help, or better yet, convince yourself to quit.
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Old 5th September 2018, 12:55 AM   #19
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See also:

The Survivorship Bias; anecdotal evidence; N=1.
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Old 5th September 2018, 01:21 AM   #20
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Every study on alcohol consumption contradicts every other study on alcohol consumption.
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Old 5th September 2018, 05:47 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Every study on alcohol consumption contradicts every other study on alcohol consumption.
True for several subjects. They only seem to be studied by people with a bias. Alcohol, porn, Marijuana to name some. This guy seems bias in his conclusion that it is bad for EVERYBODY when his data clearly shows it is actually good for some.
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Old 5th September 2018, 05:57 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Every study on alcohol consumption contradicts every other study on alcohol consumption.
This is not really true though is it?

There are not equal numbers of studies saying that alcohol causes and cures cirrhosis of the liver are there?

There are not equal numbers of studies that say that alcohol is a neuro-toxin that also say alcohol is a nootropic, are there?

There are not going to be equal numbers of studies saying that alcohol makes someone a worse driver due to slower reaction speeds as say that they make people better drivers are there?

In fact, your claim is even stronger than that. You are saying that if there is even one study showing alcohol is a neurotoxin then all other studies contradict it!

Wow!
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Old 5th September 2018, 05:59 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
True for several subjects.They only seem to be studied by people with a bias. Alcohol, porn, Marijuana to name some. This guy seems bias in his conclusion that it is bad for EVERYBODY when his data clearly shows it is actually good for some.
This is not really true either is it?
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 5th September 2018, 06:34 AM   #24
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I read the article when it came out ... it mentions drunk driving as a major health risk (even one drink can reduce your driving skill etc etc) ...
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Old 5th September 2018, 07:39 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
So your claim "in good shape" really is just "haven't got cancer".

I didn't do that. It was your claim that you were in good shape, which is a blatant lie.
FFS. If you would just read for meaning rather than gotchas, it would be perfectly clear that being alive, having no amputations, and, yes, not having cancer, are rather surprising in his situation.
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Old 5th September 2018, 08:30 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
FFS. If you would just read for meaning rather than gotchas, it would be perfectly clear that being alive, having no amputations, and, yes, not having cancer, are rather surprising in his situation.
Thanks RY. I do have the feeling that my thought processes that lean towards concepts are difficult for some to understand. A more common thought process system is that some people think in words. They micro-parse the words, without getting the gist of the discussion. Most common is thinking in pictures, and some think in numbers, sounds, or smells. See "Temple Grandin".

The question comes down to "When you hear of the number 7, what color does it smell like?"

eta: Some people think I stink.
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Old 5th September 2018, 08:48 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
This is not really true though is it?

< . . . strawman snipped . . .>
Contradicting means saying "it ain't so" not "the truth is the exact opposite".
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Old 5th September 2018, 10:13 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
FFS. If you would just read for meaning rather than gotchas, it would be perfectly clear that being alive, having no amputations, and, yes, not having cancer, are rather surprising in his situation.
Well if you would read for understanding you would have realised that I simply don't agree. I know two life-long diabetics, who both have to inject insulin. One is 81 years old and has just got back from pedaling his bike across America, solo and unsupported, having done the same thing across Australia the year before, and China a couple of years back. The other is in his 70s and has run over 50 marathons, including 2 in 2 days a couple of weeks ago. They're both active members of my wife's running club. When someone claims to be healthy despite their diabetes, and says they have 7 stents and weigh 300 lbs, it's difficult not to compare that claim of healthy with that of the 2 diabetics I know. There is nothing about diabetes which means you have to be overweight or have heart disease.
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Old 5th September 2018, 01:25 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Well if you would read for understanding you would have realised that I simply don't agree. I know two life-long diabetics, who both have to inject insulin. One is 81 years old and has just got back from pedaling his bike across America, solo and unsupported, having done the same thing across Australia the year before, and China a couple of years back. The other is in his 70s and has run over 50 marathons, including 2 in 2 days a couple of weeks ago. They're both active members of my wife's running club. When someone claims to be healthy despite their diabetes, and says they have 7 stents and weigh 300 lbs, it's difficult not to compare that claim of healthy with that of the 2 diabetics I know. There is nothing about diabetes which means you have to be overweight or have heart disease.
Nor that your friends are not outliers.

I also see that TWO anecdotes = evidence, even if 1 does not. Yeah.
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Old 5th September 2018, 08:37 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
When someone claims to be healthy despite their diabetes, and says they have 7 stents and weigh 300 lbs, it's difficult not to compare that claim of healthy with that of the 2 diabetics I know.
Well I know people who don't even have diabetes so I win.

Seriously, stop knocking casebro. If he is satisfied with his health then there is no need to try to make him suicidal.
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Old 5th September 2018, 11:18 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Contradicting means saying "it ain't so" not "the truth is the exact opposite".
There's no way that "Every study on alcohol consumption contradicts every other study on alcohol consumption." It doesn't even make logical sense unless there are only two studies on alcohol, which is not the case.

If study A says P, then every other study says ~P.

But how can it be as for every study that says ~P, every other study must say ~~P.

The health effects of alcohol are largely well-known and corroborated. There are plenty of studies that show alcohol is a depressant, that it is bad for the liver and is a neurotoxin.
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Old 5th September 2018, 11:50 PM   #32
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There are so many studies out here that I suppose meta-studies were inevitable. But this finding smells a little fishy:

Quote:
"However, once all the evidence was weighed, we found no benefit on overall health from consumption. We also found large per capita consumption in some southeast Asian countries (such as Thailand and Vietnam), which was surprising."
Seriously? That strikes me as a very strange thing to discover in a meta-study. The idea of meta-studies is to discover information at a very high level. It's kind of like somebody mentioning that they analyzed the play-by play of every baseball game ever played and discovered that Thurman Munson played for the Yankees in the 1970s. In other words, I would suspect that many of the underlying studies also noted the high per capita consumption in Vietnam and Thailand, otherwise the data would not be available.
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Old 5th September 2018, 11:54 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
There's no way that "Every study on alcohol consumption contradicts every other study on alcohol consumption." It doesn't even make logical sense unless there are only two studies on alcohol, which is not the case.

If study A says P, then every other study says ~P.

But how can it be as for every study that says ~P, every other study must say ~~P.

The health effects of alcohol are largely well-known and corroborated. There are plenty of studies that show alcohol is a depressant, that it is bad for the liver and is a neurotoxin.
Now you are just playing semantics.

Just to reiterate, if one study says "X is a safe level of consumption" and another study says "Y is a safe level of consumption" (where X =/= Y) then they contradict each other.
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Old 6th September 2018, 01:43 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Now you are just playing semantics.

Just to reiterate, if one study says "X is a safe level of consumption" and another study says "Y is a safe level of consumption" (where X =/= Y) then they contradict each other.
I'd say that is semantics! If two studies show that alcohol consumption is bad for you, but one says 8 units a week is bad and one says 9 units a week is bad they are not contradicting each other.
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Old 6th September 2018, 02:00 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Now you are just playing semantics.

Just to reiterate, if one study says "X is a safe level of consumption" and another study says "Y is a safe level of consumption" (where X =/= Y) then they contradict each other.
Not true, because "safe / dangerous level of consumption" is an inequality not an equality. To take Darat's example a little further, if study 1 finds that 8 units a week is dangerous and study 2 finds that 9 units a week is dangerous, these are neither contradicted by each other nor by study 3 which finds that 7 units a week is dangerous. Or, to take yours, if study 1 finds that 2 units per week is a safe level of consumption, then it is not contradicted by study 2 finding that 1 unit per week is a safe level of consumption. And that's before even considering the fact that real studies include error bars, which are rarely reported because that would require the reporter and the reader to think.

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Old 6th September 2018, 02:42 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Why bother quoting something if you are not going to read it nor address it? You could just as easily done your soap boxing without quoting my post. Do you think that the readers here are stupid enough to think that you have rebutted my post in some way?

Just to reiterate, if one study says "X is a safe level of consumption" and another study says "Y is a safe level of consumption" (where X =/= Y) then they contradict each other.
That's not reiterating. That's saying something different.

Maybe what you meant to say was that there is disagreement about how much alcohol is safe to drink.
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Old 6th September 2018, 03:14 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Maybe what you meant to say was that there is disagreement about how much alcohol is safe to drink.
OK. Every study on alcohol consumption disagrees with every other study on alcohol consumption.

Happy?
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Old 6th September 2018, 03:40 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
OK. Every study on alcohol consumption disagrees with every other study on alcohol consumption.

Happy?
This is your assertion, and it simply isn't true.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 6th September 2018, 11:25 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
This is your assertion, and it simply isn't true.
You should have lead off with that instead of wasting time over the definition of "contradict".
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Old 6th September 2018, 06:07 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You should have lead off with that instead of wasting time over the definition of "contradict".
I didn't spend any time on the definition of "contradict". You did, remember...

Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Contradicting means saying "it ain't so" not "the truth is the exact opposite".
LOL!
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