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Old 12th March 2019, 01:38 AM   #4001
The Don
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I'm sticking with my prediction that they will delay Brexit. Ultimately a delay will be the only thing a majority of Parlaiment can agree to. Hopefully the next step will be a second referendum.
I disagree, I don't think a majority in parliament will agree to a delay on Brexit, especially if the Conservatives are whipped into voting against it.

I think it's unlikely that there will be a second referendum but if there is, I think it will be to choose between two forms of Brexit (say Theresa's deal, or some version of it, or no-deal) no-Brexit will never be an option because the two largest parties were elected on a campaign promise of delivering Brexit.

IMO no-deal has been a nailed-on certainty for the last 6 months or year
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Old 12th March 2019, 01:38 AM   #4002
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I'm sticking with my prediction that they will delay Brexit. Ultimately a delay will be the only thing a majority of Parlaiment can agree to. Hopefully the next step will be a second referendum.
Any delay will come with strings attached that the Parliament may not agree to.

Such as a second referendum. It is reasonable of the EU to provide an extension IF UK comits to either a second referendum or a new general elections - or both.

Can the Parliament agree to that? The issue is nowhere near as clear. Just the referendum itself is a major sticking point: what are the possible answers?

Should Bremain be a possibility? This would be unacceptable to most MPs, yet the will of the electorate if the polls are an indication. Do you include it or not?
How about Corybn's unicorn of permanent customs union, leading to Brino? Without one his support for the bill is unlikely, yet the Tories hate it.

What's left? The deal at hand, which was voted down twice, at least one of those by a historic margin and no deal that will probably get voted down too?

This *********** is truly epic. A referendum may not be possible because the questions themselves will define what the result will be even before the first votes are cast.

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Old 12th March 2019, 01:54 AM   #4003
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
How about Corybn's unicorn of permanent customs union, leading to Brino?

McHrozni
Jeremy Corbyn's unicorn really hasn't been subjected to any kind if scrutiny, because it hasn't been considered as a realistic proposal but if it did, it would quickly be shot down in flames by the EU.

The idea that the UK could be part of a customs union whilst still retaining the ability to negotiate independent trade deals with parties who already have trade deals is as nonsensical and the most ridiculous of Brexiteer fever-dreams. Under Corbyn's leadership Labour is dead set against the "four freedoms" which are a prerequisite for EEA membership and wants the kind of unilateral action which is incompatible with customs union membership. In other words, a Labour deal would be indistinguishable from Theresa's deal in all important aspects.
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Old 12th March 2019, 02:04 AM   #4004
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I'm sticking with my prediction that they will delay Brexit. Ultimately a delay will be the only thing a majority of Parlaiment can agree to. Hopefully the next step will be a second referendum.
A short delay to get UK legislation through... almost 100%.
A slightly longer delay for a second referendum... maybe but only if remain is an option. If it's just with May's deal or no deal.... then zero chance of a delay.
Any other reason and I'd give zero chance of being agreed to by the EU.

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Old 12th March 2019, 02:48 AM   #4005
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
May has received some unspecified placatory gesture. Possibly some progress.
Negligible actual changes.

Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
All it does is reduce 'the risk of being in the backstop permanently'. The UK can go to arbitration and appeal against it. However, that was already in the agreement. Making it a legally binding instrument doesn't allay fears that it could end up being indefinite as it is the EU court who arbitrates in the first place, according to EU legislation. 'Joint instrument' sounds impressive but all it means is there is a paragraph or two of declarations in the 'rules' that 'The UK shall be allowed to appeal against a breach should the backstop look like being indefinite'.

I can't see the DUP being reasssured by that.

I guess Cox will play along with the sleigh of hand and claim he can now give his legal advice that the Withdrawal Agreement is sound.

It is going to be a legal mess for years to come.
Pretty much, yes.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
At the 11th hour and 59 minutes, 59 seconds, 99 miliseconds, a new document was agreed upon by Junker and May.

"Alternative arrangements" being a particularily fluffy sub-species of the unicorn, I believe.

McHrozni
It's the same agreement with some placatory veneer added.
The "alternative arrangements" are, and always were, core. If there was a realistic chance of a technological solution then the Brexiteers wouldn't have cared about the backstop. In reality however they understand that this is a fantasy, and always was.
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Old 12th March 2019, 03:04 AM   #4006
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It doesn't really matter what the agreement says, or doesn't say, all that matters is whether it gives MPs sufficient cover to be able to vote for Theresa May's deal - and it might just.

MPs have somehow convinced themselves that a narrow majority in favour of some ill-defined and contradictory campaign promises represents an unbreakable mandate in favour of Brexit and are therefore terrified of not delivering.
I don't think they have, they just see the hardliners on it as viewing it that way and that they would get the blame if they called it all off for being massively dumb now. It isn't about mandates or benefits, it is all about personally avoiding blame.
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Old 12th March 2019, 03:27 AM   #4007
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Chap in the pub last night insisting that the EU destroyed the UK ship building and motor industries.
When we joined we apparently signed an agreement to stop ship building and car manufacture as a condition of joining.
He wants the hardest of hard brexits with no imports of snything from Europe, he is staunch Labour.
I pointed out we didn't sign any such agreements.
What we had to do was not pour millions of pounds of subsidies in to nationlised shipyards and car factories.
What killed shipbuilding and cars was the chronic lack of investment by the old companies before they were nationalised and a similar lack after they were reprivatised.

He wasn't having any of it, everything about the EU is a stitch up by France and Germany.
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Old 12th March 2019, 03:33 AM   #4008
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Chap in the pub last night insisting that the EU destroyed the UK ship building and motor industries.
When we joined we apparently signed an agreement to stop ship building and car manufacture as a condition of joining.
He wants the hardest of hard brexits with no imports of snything from Europe, he is staunch Labour.
I pointed out we didn't sign any such agreements.
What we had to do was not pour millions of pounds of subsidies in to nationlised shipyards and car factories.
What killed shipbuilding and cars was the chronic lack of investment by the old companies before they were nationalised and a similar lack after they were reprivatised.

He wasn't having any of it, everything about the EU is a stitch up by France and Germany.
Perhaps it's always been this way, but a beguiling narrative which aligns with one's own preconceptions is always more persuasive than facts which run counter to them in this "echo chamber" age - doubtless I'm as guilty of that as anyone else .

The idea that the collapse of those industries was down to mismanagement (though as a Labour supporter that could have been a line of reasoning he could eventually come to believe) and under investment was not appealing to him whereas heaping the blame on the EU clearly was.
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Old 12th March 2019, 03:36 AM   #4009
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
e wants the hardest of hard brexits with no imports of snything from Europe, he is staunch Labour..
I mean in many ways this would be one way to avoid long term negative consequences from Brexit. We would all be dead by June.
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Old 12th March 2019, 04:08 AM   #4010
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Legal advice due soon on whether the changes constitute anything new. Although questions being raised about whether there have been shennanigans here and Cox has basically been told to come back with the right answer or else.

It's actually just been published, and it seems like a bit of a fudge but he seems to have reiterated that there is no legal way by which the UK could exit the backstop if there is a failure to find an agreement.
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Old 12th March 2019, 04:18 AM   #4011
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A QC's analysis : https://www.daqc.co.uk/wp-content/up...19/03/here.pdf

Quote:
It is crystal clear that the measures do not alter the fundamental legal effect of the backstop, as previously and correctly explained by the Attorney General. The backstop will endure indefinitely, unless and until superseded by another agreement, save in the extreme and unlikely event that in future negotiations the EU acts in bad faith in rejecting the UK’s demands.
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Old 12th March 2019, 04:25 AM   #4012
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Jeremy Corbyn's unicorn really hasn't been subjected to any kind if scrutiny, because it hasn't been considered as a realistic proposal but if it did, it would quickly be shot down in flames by the EU.

The idea that the UK could be part of a customs union whilst still retaining the ability to negotiate independent trade deals with parties who already have trade deals is as nonsensical and the most ridiculous of Brexiteer fever-dreams. Under Corbyn's leadership Labour is dead set against the "four freedoms" which are a prerequisite for EEA membership and wants the kind of unilateral action which is incompatible with customs union membership. In other words, a Labour deal would be indistinguishable from Theresa's deal in all important aspects.
Yeah. That's what I'm talking about.

Do you include the option in the referendum or not? Labour will not support the referendum if you don't, but if you include it and it wins ... what then? Default should be "no Brexit", but you won't get that through the parliament either.

I think the whole situation needs to resolved the French way: guilliotine all MPs and elect new ones. If they can't agree upon and pass a solution to Brexit that will be acceptable to both the British electorate, the Parliament and the EU repeat the process until you find a group that is able to deliver one way or another.

You can give the first group one more try if you really want. Not because they deserve it, but because they weren't warned in advance.

This is in jest, of course ... but I'm not sure a different solution is even possible at this point.

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Old 12th March 2019, 04:32 AM   #4013
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Then again, the pound has dropped sharply so it seems that the market believes that enough Conservatives will be swayed for Theresa May's Brexit deal to be back on the cards.
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Old 12th March 2019, 04:40 AM   #4014
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Then again, the pound has dropped sharply so it seems that the market believes that enough Conservatives will be swayed for Theresa May's Brexit deal to be back on the cards.
That was before the Attorney General came out and said it really is just makeup, I take it?

https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news...gbr/index.html

That was maybe 30 minutes ago.

Is it time to rename "Project Fear" into "Project I-told-you-so" yet?

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Old 12th March 2019, 04:47 AM   #4015
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So how could the UK leave the backstop unilaterally?

- If it can prove the EU is acting in bad faith

And how could the UK prove the EU is acting in bad faith

- Um.... they can't really
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Old 12th March 2019, 04:55 AM   #4016
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And the veneer looks to be insufficient.
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Old 12th March 2019, 04:58 AM   #4017
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Though I like Boles's comments; pointing out obvious realities to the Brexiteer fanatics.
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Old 12th March 2019, 05:01 AM   #4018
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
And the veneer looks to be insufficient.
I guess we'll see. I expect all bar a handful of ERG fanatics will find the veneer to be sufficient.

If the May deal fails, then it'll be down to a "no-deal" vote (in which case it'll be interesting to see whether Conservatives will be whipped to support a "no-deal").
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Old 12th March 2019, 05:03 AM   #4019
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I guess we'll see. I expect all bar a handful of ERG fanatics will find the veneer to be sufficient.

If the May deal fails, then it'll be down to a "no-deal" vote (in which case it'll be interesting to see whether Conservatives will be whipped to support a "no-deal").
I'm dubious, certainly the DUPpies aren't convinced and the non-ERG Brexiteers likewise.
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Old 12th March 2019, 05:05 AM   #4020
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
I'm dubious, certainly the DUPpies aren't convinced and the non-ERG Brexiteers likewise.
Perhaps, but no-deal has overwhelming support from Conservative Party members so it'd be a brave PM or MP who would go against them.
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Old 12th March 2019, 05:25 AM   #4021
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
So how could the UK leave the backstop unilaterally?

- If it can prove the EU is acting in bad faith

And how could the UK prove the EU is acting in bad faith

- Um.... they can't really
If they can't prove they are acting in bad faith, why would the UK think they are acting in bad faith?

This is a skeptics forum. We strive to believe only things with convincing evidence and can be proven.
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Old 12th March 2019, 05:26 AM   #4022
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Crispin Blunt MP says he won't support the deal based on the latest legal advice. Think he is one of the ERGers? Right?
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Old 12th March 2019, 05:27 AM   #4023
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Perhaps, but no-deal has overwhelming support from Conservative Party members so it'd be a brave PM or MP who would go against them.
It depends on how many 'soft' Brexiteers support the deal; enough, with the handful of Labour MPs, to give May a narrow victory.
ETA: I suspect May will lose and this may be the best thing.
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Old 12th March 2019, 05:43 AM   #4024
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Perhaps, but no-deal has overwhelming support from Conservative Party members so it'd be a brave PM or MP who would go against them.
Does it? Is this something that was measured in polls, or your deduction?

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Old 12th March 2019, 06:11 AM   #4025
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Perhaps it's always been this way, but a beguiling narrative which aligns with one's own preconceptions is always more persuasive than facts which run counter to them in this "echo chamber" age - doubtless I'm as guilty of that as anyone else .

The idea that the collapse of those industries was down to mismanagement (though as a Labour supporter that could have been a line of reasoning he could eventually come to believe) and under investment was not appealing to him whereas heaping the blame on the EU clearly was.
As with the bollocks that's been touted about the fishing industry, it's always easier to blame outside factors than address internal failings.
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Old 12th March 2019, 06:12 AM   #4026
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Does it? Is this something that was measured in polls, or your deduction?

McHrozni
Polls

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ay-brexit-plan

Quote:
More than half of Conservative party members want Theresa May’s Brexit deal to be rejected in favour of leaving the EU with no deal, according to a survey.
Quote:
“But that’s as nothing to Conservative party members faced with a referendum offering just two choices – remain or no deal. Some 76% of Conservative party members would plump for no deal,” he said.
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Old 12th March 2019, 06:23 AM   #4027
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
It depends on how many 'soft' Brexiteers support the deal; enough, with the handful of Labour MPs, to give May a narrow victory.
ETA: I suspect May will lose and this may be the best thing.
I'm not sure how I feel.

As a Remoaner, I think Theresa May's deal is very damaging to the UK and so I'm against it.

Then again it's marginally less bad than a no-deal Brexit.

I personally feel (fear ?) that a no-deal is the inevitable consequence of Theresa May's deal being rejected. I think it's very unlikely that a no-deal will pass but then again if it doesn't, perhaps MPs won't be given a vote on delaying Brexit or even if they are, that vote won't pass either.

No-deal is the default and IMO is the only possible outcome at this late stage.
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Old 12th March 2019, 06:31 AM   #4028
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You're mad over there. You all do know that, don't you?

Never mind. I'm glad I was able to visit London, a week ago and tick one of the last remaining boxes that hadn't been ticked yet.
For, certain, I'm not going to go back to the UK for a holiday for quite some time.
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Old 12th March 2019, 06:31 AM   #4029
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That's why whether it's critical whether the Conservatives are allowed a free vote in the no-deal division. With a free vote, there will be enough Tory "rebels" to see the motion defeated. If a three line whip is applied then that number shrinks enormously and the handful that risk going against the whip (and the risk of it being withdrawn and eventual deselection at the next election) could easily be offset by Labour turkeys voting for Christmas
Well, I really think it is unlikely that there would be a three-line whip on voting for no-deal. Why would there be one? Even if the majority of Tories wanted a no-deal, why wouldn't they just vote down alternatives and crash out as a matter of course?

But really, there could be any number of Tories who decide to simply quit the party and join the Independent Group. And there will be some, such as Ken Clarke, who would surely not vote for no deal under any circumstances and would not fear that much for his political future anyway, given that he is 130 years old now.
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Old 12th March 2019, 06:35 AM   #4030
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
It's the same agreement with some placatory veneer added.
Geoffrey Cox is now in Parliament essentially trying to change the emphasis from before. Whereas he previously said we could be stuck in the backstop, he now simply says it is unlikely.

A bunch of Tory plants are saying variations of "Isn't it true that nobody can make a completely certain legal judgment and that we should just accept that something is really, really unlikely" to which he responds, "I completely agree with you! What an astute legal point!" etc... etc....
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Old 12th March 2019, 06:56 AM   #4031
Delphic Oracle
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Ok, assuming this falls and they vote to delay?

Does that actually mean it is delayed?

Can either party (i.e. UK or EU) unilaterally change the end date? Can they bilaterally?

I recall some clarification on the UK being able to cancel the process, but nothing about pausing it (ETA: or that a pause would only be considered if the EU was given reason to believe it would do any good).

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 12th March 2019 at 07:06 AM.
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Old 12th March 2019, 07:04 AM   #4032
The Don
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Ok, assuming this falls and they vote to delay?

Does that actually mean it is delayed?

Can either party unilaterally change the end date? Can they bilaterally?

I recall some clarification on the UK being able to cancel the process, but nothing about pausing it.
Not necessarily.

Firstly, the vote to delay is non-binding so Theresa May could choose to ignore it entirely and press on with no-deal (or hope for a 22:59:59 swap to her deal on 29 March). If a tiny minority of Conservative MPs vote in favour but the vote passes, I can see her ignoring the outcome.

Secondly, as I understand it, the EU has to agree to a delay so in theory, after all the pain of getting a Brexit extension through parliament, Poland could torpedo it.

Thirdly, presumably there would need to be some agreement by parliament as to the nature of the delay. If Theresa May came back with a 15 year (or 15 minute for that matter) agreement to delay Brexit then there will be ructions.

Yet more reasons why I think no-deal is inevitable.

Last edited by The Don; 12th March 2019 at 07:05 AM.
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Old 12th March 2019, 07:11 AM   #4033
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Ok, assuming this falls and they vote to delay?

Does that actually mean it is delayed?

Can either party (i.e. UK or EU) unilaterally change the end date? Can they bilaterally?

I recall some clarification on the UK being able to cancel the process, but nothing about pausing it (ETA: or that a pause would only be considered if the EU was given reason to believe it would do any good).
There's a good graphic in the Graun that lays out what could happen here:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-crucial-votes
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 12th March 2019, 07:28 AM   #4034
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A new report suggests that at least 269 banks and other financial institutions have already at least partially moved out of the UK, transferring £800b of assets overseas

Also in that report, the move has cost these institutions £3-4b - costs which will be transferred to customers.

The report also states that due to data-collection methods these numbers will be underestimates. Also, as Brexit hasn't even happened yet, it will get a lot worse.
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Old 12th March 2019, 07:28 AM   #4035
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Not necessarily.

Firstly, the vote to delay is non-binding so Theresa May could choose to ignore it entirely and press on with no-deal (or hope for a 22:59:59 swap to her deal on 29 March). If a tiny minority of Conservative MPs vote in favour but the vote passes, I can see her ignoring the outcome.

Secondly, as I understand it, the EU has to agree to a delay so in theory, after all the pain of getting a Brexit extension through parliament, Poland could torpedo it.

Thirdly, presumably there would need to be some agreement by parliament as to the nature of the delay. If Theresa May came back with a 15 year (or 15 minute for that matter) agreement to delay Brexit then there will be ructions.

Yet more reasons why I think no-deal is inevitable.
The EU vote has to be unanimous. Estonia can unilaterally shuttle the extension.
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Old 12th March 2019, 07:32 AM   #4036
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DUP have said they don't support the deal. Not exactly a surprise, but apparently a few MPs have been saying that DUP support could have made a big difference.
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Old 12th March 2019, 07:45 AM   #4037
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm not sure how I feel.

As a Remoaner, I think Theresa May's deal is very damaging to the UK and so I'm against it.

Then again it's marginally less bad than a no-deal Brexit.

I personally feel (fear ?) that a no-deal is the inevitable consequence of Theresa May's deal being rejected. I think it's very unlikely that a no-deal will pass but then again if it doesn't, perhaps MPs won't be given a vote on delaying Brexit or even if they are, that vote won't pass either.

No-deal is the default and IMO is the only possible outcome at this late stage.
This seems to have been lost in the mix but how much of the legislation required to actually make a no deal happen has been passed and how much remains to be done?

Can it even all be achieved by the exit date?
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Old 12th March 2019, 08:22 AM   #4038
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I think the implication is that it doesn't have to be achieved...it'll just happen, and then all hell will break loose.
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Old 12th March 2019, 08:27 AM   #4039
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
This seems to have been lost in the mix but how much of the legislation required to actually make a no deal happen has been passed and how much remains to be done?

Can it even all be achieved by the exit date?
??? Invoking article 50 was all that was needed to make no deal happen. To make it less of a disaster much more would be needed and of course that hasn't been done.

Bets on how many days the que to get goods into and out of the country will become? And where will the trucks all que up?
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Old 12th March 2019, 08:31 AM   #4040
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In the meantime, in the Netherlands at least, for the past month or so I've been hearing commercials warning companies to start taking measures to prepare for the fallout of a no-deal brexit combined with reports about how places like Rotterdam harbour and Schiphol airport have been making extra waiting spaces in anticipation.

How's that going on the UK side?
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