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Old 26th August 2021, 08:04 PM   #201
PhantomWolf
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Auckland, and it's not just me saying it, it's well known and has been extensively reported. I have no idea where you live - maybe a cave?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...ain-disruption

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...meat-shortages
Well there's your problem, Countdown is rubbish at keeping the shelves stocked even here. I go to Pak'n'Save and they haven't had an issue here keeping the stock on the shelves, this lockdown of the first level 4 one.

Quote:
Hmmm, let me see...

Shall I take the word of internationally respected scientists or some bloke on the internet?
Again, you are confusing whether something can be done, with will it be done. We have the technology to go to Mars and create a colony there, will there ever have the political will to do it? Different story.

You also seem to be completely willing to ignore the real-world examples where Covid was eliminated, why is that?

Quote:
And now I know you don't actually read my posts, I literally stated that there have been a number of outbreaks in western countries lately, and explained why. You seem to also ignore that deaths have dropped to 140,000 from 2.6 million in the past 40 years, a drop of nearly 95%! If something has been decreased by 95% would you not say that it is near to being elimnated?

Quote:
You're confusing your little fantasy world with reality, and I'm only interested in reality, not some Utopian bollocks that's never going to happen.
Again you clearly don't actually read my posts, but rather what you want my posts to have said. I was quite clear that I know that Covid will be endemic, and I even explained why it will become endemic. I am also quite clear that I am under no illusion that politicians and people will not do what is required to eliminate it, and I explain why they will not.

However, there is a major difference between something not being able to be done, and something not being done because there is no political will to do it.

Elimination of SARS-CoV-2 is possible, there is no known large natural reservoir of it to reinfect the population like there is with Influenza or Rhinovirus, so we just need to remove it from the population. That is entirely possible. We have proven it, Australia has proven it, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Mongolia, Taiwan, China, Germany, Italy, Spain... All of them have proven that it is possible to get rid of the virus. The issue is not getting rid of it, it is stopping it from coming back from countries that aren't willing to do what it takes to get rid of it. If every country was willing to do it, and no, they aren't, then it could be dealt with. But that is a political issue, not a physical one. Tossing your hands in the air and declaring defeat because politicians won't do what is needed is surrendering to the virus, just as they are. Instead, we should be pressuring our politicians to do whatever it takes to rid us of the virus, and doing our part by getting vaccinated, and wearing masks, and social distancing, and not going to crowded places without taking precautions. It's not that hard unless you're a pro-virus idiot.
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Last edited by PhantomWolf; 26th August 2021 at 08:08 PM.
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Old 26th August 2021, 08:39 PM   #202
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SARS-CoV-2 detected in 40% of deer. Only a few archived samples were positive in early 2020.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02110-8

Quote:
To assess that risk, Susan Shriner at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Fort Collins, Colorado, and her colleagues tested 385 blood samples collected as part of regular wildlife-surveillance activities between January and March 2021 in four US states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois and New York. They found that a striking 40% of the samples contained SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which are produced in response to infection. None of the surveyed deer showed signs of illness.

The researchers’ testing of archived samples also turned up antibodies in 3 samples from early 2020, when SARS-CoV-2 was beginning to circulate in the United States. All told, one-third of the 2020 and 2021 samples had antibodies for the virus.
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Old 26th August 2021, 08:58 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
[the] right to medical confidentiality
...is, or should be, null and void whenever deadly and easily communicable disease is involved, as the rights of others, fully equal to those of any individual, now come into play. During a pandemic, those wishing to retain such confidentiality have an obligation to physically separate and isolate themselves, either alone or with other like-minded, so as to represent no mortal risk to others.

That way the disease can get 'em quicker, too, the willful fools.
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Old 26th August 2021, 09:22 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
...is, or should be, null and void whenever deadly and easily communicable disease is involved, as the rights of others, fully equal to those of any individual, now come into play. During a pandemic, those wishing to retain such confidentiality have an obligation to physically separate and isolate themselves, either alone or with other like-minded, so as to represent no mortal risk to others.

That way the disease can get 'em quicker, too, the willful fools.
Absolutely, 100% agree, but as the law in NZ currently stands, the workaround I have suggested is the only way that an employer can legally ensure that he does not employ an unvaccinated person.
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Old 26th August 2021, 09:24 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
To me, the largest problem with the constant media barrage and people panicking over the pandemic is the long-term affect it's going to have on mental health.

We know that anxiety and depression are at all-time highs prior to the pandemic, and putting kids in a state of constant panic will be disastrous. we also know for sure that the number one thing that helps kids in all ways is education, and we're interrupting that badly.

Once a country gets to 70% vaccination, things must return to some semblance of normality. UK seems to have hit the spot, and Europe seems to be much the same - you hit a spot where infections flatten out and the number of deaths from Covid are no worse than seasonal 'flu and an order of magnitude lower than cardiac deaths. (Yes, Israel is an outlier)
Singapore has transitioned to the endemic model and they have had quite low cases and deaths. Apparently the authorities there have decided that Delta is inevitable w/o hard to live with contraints so they are gradually reducing NPIs while they finish getting as many vaxxed as possible. Masks will be the last to go. No date on that yet.

As for the USA, here in Calif. people are not nearly as freaked out as back in April 2020 or even Jan. 2020. Roads are nearly as jammed as ever. More than half the people out shopping aren't wearing masks. I suspect people just feel a lot safer being vaxxed. And they are tired of it. And this even though Cal. has relatively high case rates and rising from Delta. But close to 90% of older people are vaxxed here and hospitalization rates, while high, are way under earlier high levels. Kind of similar to the peak months of a bad flu year. No shortages in stores.

Could be that where you are people were used to very low Covid rates and so now it's big news. The publicity will encourage people to get jabbed.
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Old 26th August 2021, 09:31 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
SARS-CoV-2 detected in 40% of deer. Only a few archived samples were positive in early 2020.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02110-8
So deer passed it to each other? One paragraph says not so fast and another says it was confirmed in a lab they could infect each other.

Interesting.

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Old 26th August 2021, 09:45 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Elimination of SARS-CoV-2 is possible, there is no known large natural reservoir of it to reinfect the population like there is with Influenza or Rhinovirus, so we just need to remove it from the population. That is entirely possible. We have proven it, Australia has proven it, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Mongolia, Taiwan, China, Germany, Italy, Spain... All of them have proven that it is possible to get rid of the virus. The issue is not getting rid of it, it is stopping it from coming back from countries that aren't willing to do what it takes to get rid of it. If every country was willing to do it, and no, they aren't, then it could be dealt with. But that is a political issue, not a physical one. Tossing your hands in the air and declaring defeat because politicians won't do what is needed is surrendering to the virus, just as they are. Instead, we should be pressuring our politicians to do whatever it takes to rid us of the virus, and doing our part by getting vaccinated, and wearing masks, and social distancing, and not going to crowded places without taking precautions. It's not that hard unless you're a pro-virus idiot.
Indeed!

We completely eliminated Covid-19 from the community in NZ. Completely. We did not have a single case in the community for almost seven months. When we got hit with it again it came from outside the country.

Preventing it from becoming endemic IS possible, but it would will be exceedingly difficult to do. How? Every country in the world agrees to the following measures

1. Give their own travelling citizens a fixed time to return home.
2. 100% lockdown, with totally closed borders.
3. Borders of countries remain closed until they have eliminated the disease

Any country that does not agree is shuttered and remains shuttered (no one goes in or out) until they agree or have eliminated the disease.

As I said, incredibly difficult but not impossible, and its a lot more difficult now than it would have been if this had been done right from the get go.
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Old 27th August 2021, 08:32 AM   #208
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Let's take a look and see who's panicking about Covid in the US:

Quote:
Ivermectin is sold out at ranch and feed stores in Texas. The Texas Poison Center’s hotline is burning up with people concerned about overdosing on the livestock dewormer, which they've taken -- against FDA advice -- to prevent or treat covid

similar story last week, from Mississippi.

Arkansas Poison Control Center has also received an uptick in calls from people taking Ivermectin intended for animal or livestock use.

Feed stores in Oklahoma are also selling out of the livestock dewormer. The state's poison control center is getting calls too.

And Alabama

Florida

Georgia
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1431256987581489159
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Old 27th August 2021, 09:00 AM   #209
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Does Darwin get paid for overtime during covid season?

My boss was on a binge of YouTube medical advice until the vaccine came available for him. He did get a homeopathic thing for it earlier on and it must have been effective. Seems he didn't get the virus yet.
But all the regular CT crap in Spanish is out there too. Even the Lysol and bleach cure. Yay.

He did get the vaccine and stopped with the woo pretty quick. Even the magic water.
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Old 27th August 2021, 09:13 PM   #210
PhantomWolf
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Utterly incorrect.
Originally Posted by Stat: Medical News
The efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech fell from 96% to 84% over six months, according to data released Wednesday, a decline that could fuel Pfizerís case that a third dose will eventually be required.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:40 AM   #211
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Quote:
The ZOE analysis suggested that a lower level of efficacy should be expected in a real-world analysis compared with clinical trials, which were conducted before the more transmissible Delta variant became dominant.
That doesn't mean what you think it does.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahros...h=2b24dfa71a6f
"While some vaccines are slightly less effective against the Delta variant compared to the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, all of the vaccines authorized for use in the U.S. are still very effective against the variant. If you do get Delta while vaccinated, you are much less likely to get severe disease, be hospitalized or die. "

"The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 88% effective against Delta after two shots versus 93.7% against original Covid-19 after two shots, according to a lab study. What this means is that if everyone in the U.S. gets vaccinated, the country will experience 88% fewer Delta cases compared to the likely outcome if no one got vaccinated."
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid...tection-fading
Should we be concerned about waning protection from COVID vaccines?

Vaccines still provide high levels of protection for the majority of the population, especially against the Delta variant, so we still need as many people as possible to get fully vaccinated.

Importantly, not only does your vaccine help to protect you, it also protects those around you who aren’t yet vaccinated. This includes children and people with weakened immune systems who don’t respond as well to the vaccine.

The discovery that vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 fades over time is not unexpected, although it might require a new vaccination strategy over the coming months.
This all tends to point up the fact that the only person here making a big deal (i.e. panicking) over the fading efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines is you.

It is not at all unexpected that MRNA vaccines will not remain effective for years like measles and other similar types of vaccines. There is a very good reason for this, and if you understood any of the science behind both of them, you would know why that is!
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:15 PM   #212
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God, I don't even want to think what Hurricane Ida is going to do to Covid rates in Lousiaina......
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:26 PM   #213
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
This kind of attitude is exactly why the current situation has gotten as bad as it is. We would have hammered it down long ago if we were contending with just the virus alone, instead of the virus plus this kind of moronic drivel to deliberately help the virus out as much as humanly possible.
This whole thing is weird. Suppose we shut down the whole nine yards for two weeks. And applied strict restrictions. This whole pandemic would be over. Couple of weeks, all done and gone. It might be awkward, but it would be gone in a couple of weeks and we could all go back to normality.

But the wingnuts are having none of that. They seem to want to keep it going for reasons they cannot explain.

I cannot explain that. They object about Bill Gates or elon Musk or whoever working towards the culling of the human population. Yet they are working toward culling the human population. That is daft.
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Old 28th August 2021, 03:33 PM   #214
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
God, I don't even want to think what Hurricane Ida is going to do to Covid rates in Lousiaina......
I can't speak to the Covid situation, but I can tell you what many of them will do

"Panic" by boarding up the windows and doors of their homes.

"Panic" by leaving town and heading to somewhere safer where the storm won't hit or will be less severe.

"Panic" by making sure they have plenty of fuel for their generators, and that all their devices are fully charged.

"Panic" by making sure their storm cellars are well stocked (most people will have "pre-emptively panicked" by having their storm cellars fully stocked all the time).

Of course, to most people, these are just normal, commonsense precautions in preparation for a time of danger, but for some, this is part of their "panic list" .
.
.
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Old 28th August 2021, 04:44 PM   #215
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I previously provided links to evidence of panic buying.

You can call those things not panicking if you like, but stockpile buying to the extent of short-supply of essential food items looks a lot like panic to me, never mind the rest.
That was uncertainty about the availability of goods, not particularly related to the disease itself, and certainly not panic ABOUT the disease itself. Since, you know, it also happens in any other times of uncertainty. E.g., in the UK lots of people started stocking up on various stuff before Brexit.

Or who could forget the American right, which started panic-buying guns, ammo and toilet paper (which come to think of it would make a great band name) before the 2020 elections. Again. Because it also happened before the 2016 election, long before even Covid existed. And in 2012, although few noticed it, because at least for ammo it was STILL an ongoing shortage since when it happened in 2008.

Or the UK again saw "panic buying" over as little as a heavy snow warning in 2018, long before anyone had even heard of Covid. Hard to forget the interviews where people who wanted "only" 6 loaves of bread and 8 litres of milk were complaining about those in the line with 14 loaves and 20 litres of milk. For a 36 hour period of heavy snow. And yes, a lot of places also got stripped clean of toilet paper for that one too.

Which already illustrates another problem: ever since Covid, a lot of people seem to assume that all those previous causes have somehow completely disappeared now, and ALL of it, every single instance of panic buying anywhere, is because of Covid alone. E.g., I've repeatedly seen the panic buying guns before the 2020 election in the USA listed as an example of Covid panic buying.

In reality, yes, it's contributing more feeling of uncertainty which rises the level a bit, but the Covid effect is still just a delta on top of these normal flukes, rather than everything being just about Covid and only Covid alone.

And a good dose of it was more like prisoner's dilemma than actual panic. Essentially you're not just trying to predict what the supply chain will be doing, but more crucially what everyone else will be doing, which does occasionally cause bubbles or shortages. At its core it's no different than when everyone was investing in tech startups just because they thought everyone else will keep investing in them, so the price will only go up, at least for a while. Or, really, how the famous Dutch tulip bubble happened. Conversely, if you expect OTHER people to buy everything on the shelves, you're likely to contribute to making that a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At any rate, while it involves a certain dose of group daftness, I don't recall many people being anywhere near hysterical. Actually I don't recall anyone being hysterical, come to think about it.
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Old 28th August 2021, 04:59 PM   #216
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Even more importantly, like all bulverisms, it's a fallacy of irreleance. Whether someone is panicked or not, it doesn't mean they're wrong. Since that's the real BS that is being peddled here.

As a trivial example, imagine this conversation in Belgium in '39, after the Anschluss, Sudetenland, the partition of Czechoslovakia, and Poland to boot:

Alphonse: "Relying on the Germans' word about respecting our neutrality is dumb. We should rejoin the alliance with France and the UK."
Bernard: "You're only saying that because you're scared of the Germans."

Well, sure Alphonse may well be scared. Doesn't mean he's wrong, though.


ANYWAY, if anyone wants to put forward the idea that the lockdown or vaccines or masks or whatever are wrong, then they need to support that and only that. Going on and on like Celine Dion's heart about what kind of psychological condition might one have, and would explain why they support vaccination, is exactly the kind of utter non-sequitur that the Bulverism fallacy is about.
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Old 28th August 2021, 06:12 PM   #217
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All the air conditioners around here are gone as soon as a heatwave is forecast and all the generators leave the shelves when a windstorm is forecast.
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Old 28th August 2021, 08:38 PM   #218
HansMustermann
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
All the air conditioners around here are gone as soon as a heatwave is forecast and all the generators leave the shelves when a windstorm is forecast.
Basically, yes, except right now daft people can do the Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc song and dance, and attribute all of that to Corona.

I mean, we just had a shortage of space heaters in Europe, and I was just reading an article blaming it on Corona panic buying, and not, say, on having a harsher winter than usual that lasted over half a year. I mean, it would be boring if it were just people reacting pretty rationally to the weather, which in turn is due to the disruption in the Gulf Stream, which sure as Hell wasn't caused by Corona. But that's boring. That's no way to click-bait idiots. Plus, for *ahem* a certain side of the political spectrum, it might mean admitting that climate change is actually happening. Let's lump it under "Corona panic purchases" instead.

Or we just had some extreme floods in Germany and the Netherlands, which among other things also damaged or outright destroyed a bunch of infrastructure, and thus the supply chain for whole areas. And people predictably went shopping for extra supplies, just in case it continues or happens again or otherwise causes even more problems. Which, mind you, didn't help the supply problem. And not just people. A bunch of construction companies rushed to buy a lot of rebar in advance, some because they were expecting more reconstruction work, some because they expected a shortage because of the reconstruction work. So they went and ordered half a year's worth of rebar, to be sure they can keep their construction deadlines. Which, again, didn't make things any better. But then it too can get lumped into "Corona panic buying" statistics, just because it happened at the same time as Corona was in town.

E.g., we had a GPU shortage, caused in large part (though, duly noted, not ONLY) by a cryptocurrency bubble. Everyone and their grandma wanted 8 RTX 3090 cards so they can mine the hell out of whatever cryptocurrency startup they thought would make them rich. Most of which went down together with their savings. But yeah, if you want real hard, you can also blame that on Corona.

Etc.

In fact, it even comes naturally. You don't have to do anything special for it. You don't even need to do any extra handwaving. Just assume that every shortage was due to Corona, and there you go, job done.
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Old 28th August 2021, 09:39 PM   #219
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So, wait, the argument is... what? If the vaccine doesn't prevent 100% of infections, then you might as well pretend that it's useless? A.ka., Nirvana fallacy? THAT is the argument?
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Old 29th August 2021, 12:42 AM   #220
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
So, wait, the argument is... what? If the vaccine doesn't prevent 100% of infections, then you might as well pretend that it's useless? A.ka., Nirvana fallacy? THAT is the argument?
No, and if you can find me saying that, good luck.

The argument was about the level of efficacy, and Phantom Wolf posted some nonsense that was out of date, so I showed him up to date data that proved I was right.

My claim was: vaccines lose efficacy in a matter of months.

That claim is correct.

Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
"Experts caution against relying solely on one real-world study in determining effectiveness against infection. But other studies trying to establish the effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing infection have also generally shown declines against Delta, with some estimates in the same ballpark as the new CDC study."
1.2 million subjects. The report is by the CDC.

No doubt you consider them an unreliable source.

I'm not even going to remind you that the very site Phantom Wolf used to make his error now accepts efficacy reduces very quickly.

You are just getting more and more wrong as the thread progresses.

Another thing I won't bother mentioning is that it's not "just one study", but then you'd have actually had to look for data and you clearly have a problem with that. It's not even new news that vaccines are less effective against delta.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...358-1/fulltext
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Old 29th August 2021, 02:04 AM   #221
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Mod WarningHad to move a ton of posts for various rule 11, rule 12 and rule 0 breaches. I’ll go through the moved posts later on to determine if any suspensions are required. Going forward stop the personalised bickering, if you can’t post without breaching your Membership Agreement don’t post.
Responding to this mod box in thread will be off topic Posted By:Darat
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Old 29th August 2021, 02:24 AM   #222
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When one person claims the efficacy has dropped from, say, 90% to 80% in six months, and the next person claims that person is "wrong" because "reasons", and says its 88% to 69% in five months, the probability is that they are both wrong, or they could be both right, or even that the comparison is meaningless in any specific way. Why is this?

Its because a set of numbers like vaccine efficacy being reduced from X% to Y% in N months does not apply universally everywhere. Its really important to understand that the vaccine, the virus itself as it mutates, and the environment in which the infections are taking place are all variables in a very complex calculation, the results of which impact on the R0 of the disease, for that environment. It is pretty much meaningless to compare studies done by different people, using different subjects, and different vaccines in different environments.

The environment in which the transmissions is taking place is a very, very important part of the equation. In an environment of lockdown, there are less opportunities for the virus to spread, so there will be less infections and therefore less breakthrough cases, and the vaccine will appear to be more effective. Conversely, environments where you have a more mobile population with closer social contact among individuals will have higher transmission rates, therefore higher chances of breakthrough cases, and therefore the vaccination will look less effective.

Also, the transmissibility of the disease is influenced by the environment. In New Zealand the Delta variant is running at an R0 of about 1 (meaning one person infects one other) because we are in full lockdown and are managing to flatten the curve. In Sydney, the R0 is about 1.3, but in the UK and the US, they are running at about 3 to 4, and in other countries that are not running lockdowns at all it is as high as 6 to 7. Environment is key in getting on top of the situation.

Finally, the really, really important thing keep in mind is that the efficacy in prevention against infection might be reducing over time, but the protection against becoming seriously ill does not appear to be. There is as yet no evidence that when vaccinated people get breakthrough infections, they become more seriously ill the longer they have been vaccinated.

Sources.

https://www.timeout.com/sydney/news/...utbreak-081821

https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/article...cines-faqs.php

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02261-8

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466347/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahros...h=2b24dfa71a6f
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Old 29th August 2021, 10:55 AM   #223
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Many words to cover up for the fact that you were proven wrong yet again. Vaccine efficacy is waning fast, and that's acknowledged by everyone with at least half a clue. And I didn't say PW was wrong because "reasons" I showed he was wrong because science exists. Here's some more.

Israel https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/s...el-pfizer.html

Back in July Pfizer announced a need for boosters due to waning efficacy.

CDC prior to the Zoe report.

Like I said, it's not even new news. I'm amused by you trying to defend it, though.

Important and irrelevant, given nobody mentioned it. Nice try at further deflection of being wrong. Well played.
Is the lack of lasting vaccine protection why everyone is supposedly panicking?

I'm not sure how this fits with the OP.

I will say though that I'm fine with a short acting vaccine because it gets us further down the road toward a longer lasting immunity be it from breakthrough cases or better vaccines. And we shouldn't worry just yet that these vaccines won't last longer given more than a few of our vaccines like tetanus for example, need a 3 dose primer (4 or 5 if you start vaccinating people as infants) for it to then last 10 years.

Just like masks and social distancing got us through the pandemic without overwhelming hospitals and funeral homes (or it was supposed to had people cooperated), a vaccine that wears off quickly will get us further down the road.

A short acting or inadequate acting vaccine is not causing panic as far as I can see. If anything it is causing too many people to just say **** it and ignore anything that might prevent COVID.

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Old 29th August 2021, 12:25 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Is the lack of lasting vaccine protection why everyone is supposedly panicking?
Since nobody is actually panicking....
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Old 29th August 2021, 01:26 PM   #225
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You don't seem to understand. Just because it is called "panic buying" in the press when the shelves are empty, it must mean that people are running screaming and flailing hysterically to the shop and back. By the same logic as sweetmeats must be meats, or sweetbread must be bread

I mean the patio heater shortage last November got called "panic buying" by enough idiot journalists, even thought it was just some perfectly calm and planned purchases by people who wanted to meet their friends at home if they can't meet at the pub, given 1. the lockdown, and 2. the weather was chilling, because the Gulf Stream was just starting to seize up. Or just to sit in the garden themselves, if they're not going anywhere. Nobody was running around screaming and pulling their hair. Nobody was stocking 50 patio heaters for the inevitable breakdown of human civilization. Just some social people sat and thought calmly about what they can do given the new circumstances, and reached the "so let's sit in the garden near a patio heater then" conclusion. Just too many had that same idea at the same time, and the supply side of the equation didn't expect it.
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Old 29th August 2021, 01:49 PM   #226
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
You don't seem to understand. Just because it is called "panic buying" in the press when the shelves are empty, it must mean that people are running screaming and flailing hysterically to the shop and back. By the same logic as sweetmeats must be meats, or sweetbread must be bread

I mean the patio heater shortage last November got called "panic buying" by enough idiot journalists, even thought it was just some perfectly calm and planned purchases by people who wanted to meet their friends at home if they can't meet at the pub, given 1. the lockdown, and 2. the weather was chilling, because the Gulf Stream was just starting to seize up. Or just to sit in the garden themselves, if they're not going anywhere. Nobody was running around screaming and pulling their hair. Nobody was stocking 50 patio heaters for the inevitable breakdown of human civilization. Just some social people sat and thought calmly about what they can do given the new circumstances, and reached the "so let's sit in the garden near a patio heater then" conclusion. Just too many had that same idea at the same time, and the supply side of the equation didn't expect it.

Reminds me of how most of the famous toilet paper "panic buying" and "hoarding" in the U.S. in 2020 turned out to be people buying more toilet paper that was packaged and distributed for home use, because they were using more of it, because they were spending more time at home. At the same time, toilet paper packaged and distributed for commercial use (e.g. in businesses, schools, and restaurants) was piling up in warehouses.
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Old 29th August 2021, 03:20 PM   #227
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Well, some did start buying extra when the shortages did hit. (Which didn't help alleviate the shortages.) But yeah, it was "panic" at the shortages (and even then imagine me doing some conspicuous Dr Evil style air quotes around "panic"), rather than at Corona itself. A shortage which in turn, as you say, was caused more by a failure in the distribution chain to adapt in time.
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Old 29th August 2021, 04:01 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
Reminds me of how most of the famous toilet paper "panic buying" and "hoarding" in the U.S. in 2020 turned out to be people buying more toilet paper that was packaged and distributed for home use, because they were using more of it, because they were spending more time at home. At the same time, toilet paper packaged and distributed for commercial use (e.g. in businesses, schools, and restaurants) was piling up in warehouses.


So some people assumed that the shortages were due to "panic" buying!

Well, as the saying goes, "Assumption is the mother of all ****-ups!"
.
.
.
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Old 29th August 2021, 04:05 PM   #229
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I can't speak to the Covid situation, but I can tell you what many of them will do

"Panic" by boarding up the windows and doors of their homes.

"Panic" by leaving town and heading to somewhere safer where the storm won't hit or will be less severe.

"Panic" by making sure they have plenty of fuel for their generators, and that all their devices are fully charged.

"Panic" by making sure their storm cellars are well stocked (most people will have "pre-emptively panicked" by having their storm cellars fully stocked all the time).

Of course, to most people, these are just normal, commonsense precautions in preparation for a time of danger, but for some, this is part of their "panic list" .
.
.
And Ida is worse then predicted. It's lsow moving and is already shocking the experts by how long the 130 MPH plus winds are lasting. And massive amounts of rainfall. Some flooding in New Orleans from the sheer amount of rain falling.
Better to "Panic " a little and take precuations rather then be complacent.
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Old 29th August 2021, 05:00 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Is the lack of lasting vaccine protection why everyone is supposedly panicking?

I'm not sure how this fits with the OP.

I will say though that I'm fine with a short acting vaccine because it gets us further down the road toward a longer lasting immunity be it from breakthrough cases or better vaccines. And we shouldn't worry just yet that these vaccines won't last longer given more than a few of our vaccines like tetanus for example, need a 3 dose primer (4 or 5 if you start vaccinating people as infants) for it to then last 10 years.

Just like masks and social distancing got us through the pandemic without overwhelming hospitals and funeral homes (or it was supposed to had people cooperated), a vaccine that wears off quickly will get us further down the road.

A short acting or inadequate acting vaccine is not causing panic as far as I can see. If anything it is causing too many people to just say **** it and ignore anything that might prevent COVID.
Also, we may have to take into consideration, the curve of this diminishing efficacy...



...is it going to be;

(A) Linear decay, diminishing to zero at a predictable point in the near future?
(B) Geometric or exponential decay with decreasing form, staying relatively high and then quickly falling off quickly to zero?
(C) Geometric or exponential decay to 0, falling quickly and slowly tailing off to zero?
(D) Geometric or exponential decay to n, falling quickly and slowly tailing off to some unknown non-zero level?

The problem is, we don't yet have enough information (not enough points on the curve in terms of efficacy %, and not enough time has expired) to determine anything for certain with regards to long term efficacy - just because it has fallen off from X% to Y% over period T does not tell us anything about what might happen long term.

Additionally, as I posted earlier, even the fact that efficacy in protection against becoming infected might be fading, there is as yet no evidence that vaccine protection against becoming seriously ill is fading. When vaccinated people get breakthrough infections, there does not appear to be any evidence that they become more seriously ill the greater the amount of time has passed since they became fully vaccinated.

ETA:
There is another thing to consider as well. Vaccine efficacy is influenced by level of exposure, i.e. the amount of virus the subject has been exposed to. Put a non-infected vaccinated subject in a small room with 20 others, only one of which is infected and contagious, the chances of the vaccine failing to protect the subject is much lower that if you put the subject in the same room in which all 20 are infected and contagious, i.e. the higher level of exposure the subject is exposed to, the lower the efficacy of the vaccinated subject's protection. This is why flattening the curve and getting vaccinated are so important. Doing so lowers everyone's potential level of exposure.
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Old 29th August 2021, 05:01 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Since nobody is actually panicking....
That was included in the post thus the adverb "supposedly", but yeah.
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Old 29th August 2021, 05:06 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by HansMustermann View Post
Well, some did start buying extra when the shortages did hit. ....
I did. Mind you this was at the beginning when we had no idea what to expect.

I stocked up on TP because a friend in another forum described her experience living in Hong Kong and that was on the advice list. I bought some canned food but I should have had it anyway in the earthquake stockpile.

When they said there might be drug shortages because the ingredient supply chain might be disrupted, I bought my two most important meds that there were no subs for. I can do that because I order pharmaceuticals for my business.

I also bought N95 masks that I later traded for some expired N95 masks and gave the new ones to the local hospital. I bought syringes which are for this year's flu vaccinations because there was a concern those might be in short supply. And I got a case of hand sanitizer, again because I use it in my job.

I think that was it as far as stockpiling went.

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Old 29th August 2021, 05:33 PM   #233
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Since nobody is actually panicking....
I don't know man... have you seen those right wingers at rallies? The anti-mask/vaxers at school board meetings?
Damn... a lot of those folk have lost it.
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Old 29th August 2021, 05:36 PM   #234
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I didn't stock up on anything. TP was usually low in the store, but there was always enough. Sometimes stores ran out of original flavor ramen. I don't know, I must have got lucky and I just couldn't be bothered to panic
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Old 29th August 2021, 05:40 PM   #235
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Originally Posted by Jim_MDP View Post
I don't know man... have you seen those right wingers at rallies? The anti-mask/vaxers at school board meetings?
Damn... a lot of those folk have lost it.
Given this definition of panic that was posted elsewhere in the thread:

a sudden overwhelming fear, with or without cause, that produces hysterical or irrational behavior, and that often spreads quickly through a group of persons or animals.

I think you have hit the proverbial nail on its head.
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Old 29th August 2021, 05:48 PM   #236
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Originally Posted by Jim_MDP View Post
I don't know man... have you seen those right wingers at rallies? The anti-mask/vaxers at school board meetings?
Damn... a lot of those folk have lost it.
What is the image you are tryng to display. It keeps coming up as a broken image link in every one of your posts
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Old 29th August 2021, 06:12 PM   #237
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
What is the image you are tryng to display. It keeps coming up as a broken image link in every one of your posts
What?
I'm not linking/embedding any image (haven't used my gallery in months in fact).
I'll fix it if you can help me see what "it" is.
Thanks


Edit... do you mean the frowny emoji at the end? It may be a TapaCrap set that isn't playing well with others. Just a guess.
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Old 29th August 2021, 06:18 PM   #238
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Originally Posted by Jim_MDP View Post
What?
I'm not linking/embedding any image (haven't used my gallery in months in fact).
I'll fix it if you can help me see what "it" is.
Thanks


Edit... do you mean the frowny emoji at the end? It may be a TapaCrap set that isn't playing well with others. Just a guess.
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Old 29th August 2021, 06:38 PM   #239
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Right... that's a frown emoji from the default Tapa set. (eta... I'm conflating emoji and emoticon, again. Sorry)
I'll try to just go back to doing it by hand, mostly...




On the flip side... there's a few common bbcodes that Tapa doesn't render. Hilite among the most common. I just handcode b and /b for bold instead.
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Old 29th August 2021, 07:14 PM   #240
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Originally Posted by Jim_MDP View Post
I'm conflating emoji and emoticon, again.
I didn't know there was a difference.
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