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Old 16th March 2018, 03:06 AM   #321
Jack by the hedge
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Not sure about that. The death of a sixty-something man in his own home might well be put down as whichever mundane cause it most closely matched; heart attack or whatever, but the simultaneous deaths of the man and his thirty-something daughter, not so much.

And when the people who enter his home start falling ill too...
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Old 16th March 2018, 03:09 AM   #322
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Corbyn is right to suggest that we should test the evidence. At the moment it's like all these religious strange beliefs with no facts or evidence and just jumping to conclusions. These silly journalists on TV are saying that this would never have happened if we had intervened earlier on behalf of the Syrian head choppers and beyond, and supported Manchester and London bombers, and that we should now have a cyber war with Russia!

It looks now as though Russia will now ban the importation of Kettle crisps to Russia, and stop the export of natural gas to the UK during cold snaps. Personally, I'm a great believer in sound trade, but I suppose that's too logical for the House of Commons. I have never understood why there has to be wars and sanctions over the construction of oil and gas pipelines. I agree that the Arabs have never wanted a peaceful settlement, but neither have the Jews. There are people in the Tory party who have spoken to Russians in the past and have been involved in Russian business.

As a citizen of Salisbury has recently said it's all outside of their understanding.
These MI6 goons are not much help by saying that Corbyn is not up to the job of Prime Minister, and that RT should be closed down.
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Old 16th March 2018, 03:13 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Procedure of OPCW:

So what did the UK not do?
Involve the OPCW immediately. Even if that was not a strict requirement it still looks like a tactical mistake to me, as it gives Russia an excuse to complain.
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Old 16th March 2018, 03:22 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
Indeed. Since Putin's re-election in 2012 Russian propaganda has nurtured a sense of victimhood among it's people based upon the notion that the west unfairly blames Russia for various things.

It uses this to drive a wedge between the Russian people and the west and to focus anger, born from resentment, against things deemed western. The amount of vitriol against the "fascist western russophobes" is comparable to the two minutes of hate in 1984.

Plus as a bonus Russia gets to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt in the west. This is why they are so smug about it.

"We might have done it but maybe we didn't... he he. Maybe it was your own government that did It? They have lied before you know, just like us. You can't trust anyone these days. Have seen the evidence with your own eyes? No? Then keep an open mind, who knows what happened and why really. Facts and truth are just opinions anyways... We are totally honest this time though! *wink* *wink* *nudge* *nudge*."
I asked him and he told me he didn't do it and I believe him.
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Old 16th March 2018, 03:24 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
And also drive a wedge between Western nations as they try to agree on an appropriate response. Countries more beholden to Russian gas supplies aren't going to be enthusiastic about agreeing to new sanctions.
When they aren't driving the wedges between themselves.
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Old 16th March 2018, 03:27 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by commandlinegamer View Post
Nothing loose about it. It's got a cathedral (and a quite magnificent specimen).
So does St Davids, but there's not many places in the world that would classify a place of (what?) 2000 people as a city.
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Old 16th March 2018, 03:42 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by Henri McPhee View Post
It looks now as though Russia will now ban the importation of Kettle crisps to Russia
I never imagined the situation would become so serious.
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Old 16th March 2018, 03:51 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Involve the OPCW immediately. Even if that was not a strict requirement it still looks like a tactical mistake to me, as it gives Russia an excuse to complain.
Really?

When do you think the UK informed the OPCW?

Quote:
On 8 March, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland delegation informed the OPCW Technical Secretariat that two people, Sergey and Yulia Skripal, had been taken seriously ill on 4 March in the city of Salisbury following exposure to a nerve agent.
https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/...87nat05_e_.pdf
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Old 16th March 2018, 03:56 AM   #329
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
[aside]
That is not the definition of a city. Salisbury is a city, not because of its cathedral, but because it has been granted city status by the monarch. Here is a list of towns with cathedrals. [/aside]
Yup, it's down to the 'Royal Charter'

Sunderland is a City but doesn't have a cathedral.
Ripon has a Cathedral and is a city but is no bigger than a small market town. Nearby Harrogate is much bigger but is just a town.
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Old 16th March 2018, 04:12 AM   #330
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With regards to the politics victimhood thats central to Russian propaganda, this has its roots in the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When it was falling apart two main narratives arose: the "liberal nationalist" and the "authoritarian imperialist".

The former viewed Russia as being no different from any other union republic. Russians were as much victims as the Estonians. This was popular at first when people were optimistic of change.

The latter viewed Russia as the centre of the Soviet union. In fact the Soviet Union was just a continuation of the Russian empire. It was glorious. Russia was a standard and model for others. It was only because traitors like Gorbachev invited weakness that the union fell apart.

Because the west see the Soviet Union as a villain that was defeated the imperialists see this no differently from the west cheering the defeat of this is itself. This indignity must be avenged.

The reactionary authoritarianism that now is effectively state ideology has now regards for human rights and freedom. It's a dog eat dog world, both in and between societies. Might makes right. Liberal tolerance for sodomites, such effimant men and other deviants is a sign of weakness. Weakness invites death, as it did when Gorbachev tolerated dissidents.
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Old 16th March 2018, 04:13 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Craig Murray on the reaction to his crimethink: Bothered By Midgies
Out of curiosity what evidence would *you* need before you'd say it was more likely than not that the Russian state was behind these attempted murders (albeit I suspect it is murder as they are pretty much dead now)?
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Old 16th March 2018, 04:17 AM   #332
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Agreed, though it might go even further. If it turns out that renegade Uzbeks kept 'samples' of novichok when the production facility was dismantled (with the help of the USA, by the way) then Putin ends up with what looks like a legitimate grievance and The West with egg on its face. To repeat my original comment - if international treaties stipulate a procedure for such cases then the UK seems to have made a mistake by not following it.
But it doesn't, the treaty as far as I can tell does not deal with what to do when a chemical attack happens (in a country that is a signatory to the treaty).
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Old 16th March 2018, 04:24 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Involve the OPCW immediately. Even if that was not a strict requirement it still looks like a tactical mistake to me, as it gives Russia an excuse to complain.
Sorry but I disagree. Russia's response would have been the same no matter what procedures we followed. If found next to the bodies there was a bottle marked with crossbones and skull with "made in Russia by V Putin" with Putin's fingerprints and DNA on it Russia would be issuing the same crap.

Who is going to be fooled by Russia in this matter that don't want to be fooled?
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Old 16th March 2018, 04:52 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Agreed, though it might go even further. If it turns out that renegade Uzbeks kept 'samples' of novichok when the production facility was dismantled (with the help of the USA, by the way) then Putin ends up with what looks like a legitimate grievance and The West with egg on its face. To repeat my original comment - if international treaties stipulate a procedure for such cases then the UK seems to have made a mistake by not following it.
The Uzbek site was not a production site, but a test site. It was cleaned up with American help, during the time that Craig Murray was UK ambassador to Uzbekistan.

The production site was in Shikhany, Saratov Oblast, Russia, which until today, is the Russian equivalent of Porton Down, and has never been closed down. That is also the site where the Russian chemists developed novichoks in the first place.

The possibility that someone smuggled some out of the Uzbek test site, 25 years ago before the cleanup, and that it still is stable (*), seems to be a very remote one. From the Guardian:
Quote:
Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of the now disbanded UK Chemical, Biological, Radiation and Nuclear regiment and its Nato equivalent, said Shikhany was the sole location for development and production of novichok, dismissing suggestions that the chemical could be found in other places in the former Soviet Union such as Ukraine and Uzbekistan. “They have no more anywhere else,” he said.
(*) I have no idea how stable these compounds are - and may even differ from compound to compound.
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Old 16th March 2018, 05:20 AM   #335
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Not sure about that. The death of a sixty-something man in his own home might well be put down as whichever mundane cause it most closely matched; heart attack or whatever, but the simultaneous deaths of the man and his thirty-something daughter, not so much.

And when the people who enter his home start falling ill too...
It would be a question of whether the nerve agent could be easily detected several days after the event. It certainly may well have dissipated enough not to obviously affect anyone else entering the property.
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Old 16th March 2018, 05:28 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Yup, it's down to the 'Royal Charter'

Sunderland is a City but doesn't have a cathedral.
Ripon has a Cathedral and is a city but is no bigger than a small market town. Nearby Harrogate is much bigger but is just a town.
Rather amusingly, it looks like Ripon unilaterally assumed itself to be a city in 1836 when bits of the dioceses of York and Chester were hived off to create a new one. It only officially became a city in 1865, while at the time Leeds - within the Ripon diocese - was still a town. These things be complicated...

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Old 16th March 2018, 05:45 AM   #337
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It is clear to me the MOSSAD was responsible for this attempted assassination. Once again they achieved a false-flag attack as they did in 2001. (see "The Anthrax Mystery: Solved") Their motive was to overthrow and isolate the Putin regime. They are still upset over Putin kicking out all the Jewish oligarchs. The Jews still dream of ruling Russia.

The nerve agent came from Ness Ziona, Israel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel...gical_Research
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Old 16th March 2018, 06:07 AM   #338
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It is clear to me that this was obviously the work of a robot assassin from the future that may look Austrian or very Robert Patricky.
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Old 16th March 2018, 06:08 AM   #339
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Originally Posted by MaGZ View Post
... Their motive was to overthrow and isolate the Putin regime.
A near flawless plan. Overthrow Putin by increasing his support at home. I shall give your theory all due consideration.
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Old 16th March 2018, 06:10 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by MaGZ View Post
It is clear to me the MOSSAD was responsible for this attempted assassination. Once again they achieved a false-flag attack as they did in 2001. (see "The Anthrax Mystery: Solved") Their motive was to overthrow and isolate the Putin regime. They are still upset over Putin kicking out all the Jewish oligarchs. The Jews still dream of ruling Russia.

The nerve agent came from Ness Ziona, Israel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel...gical_Research
Maybe something for Childlike Empress to cling desperately to?
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Old 16th March 2018, 06:18 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Really?

When do you think the UK informed the OPCW?

https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/...87nat05_e_.pdf
Fair enough. Damned if I could find anything like that, but point retracted.
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Old 16th March 2018, 06:27 AM   #342
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Maybe something for Childlike Empress to cling desperately to?

Quote:
Craig Murray

@CraigMurrayOrg
Remarkable correlation between Labour MPs who attacked Corbyn in EDM wanting no investigation into Salisbury before firmly attributing blame, and parliamentary Labour Friends of Israel, I wonder why?
When in doubt.
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Old 16th March 2018, 06:34 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
When in doubt.
Oh, it was the Jews Zionists Israelis!

Thanks for that Craig Murray!
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Old 16th March 2018, 08:41 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Fair enough. Damned if I could find anything like that, but point retracted.
OK

Just think of the relevant specialists coming in to work last Monday to be told "this is not an exercise", and dealing with the worst case scenario that they hoped never to have to deal with. Things would have been done by the book.

Last edited by Aber; 16th March 2018 at 08:55 AM.
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Old 16th March 2018, 08:48 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
I have no idea how stable these compounds are - and may even differ from compound to compound.
On the moors near Barnard Castle is a site that in WW2 was a POW camp. After the war it was used to store all the German Chemical Weapons that were rounded up. This included Nerve gas.
It wasn't actually finally cleared and disposed of until just a few years ago. All the buildings and sheds etc were demolished and shipped away foe careful disposal in sealed containers by men in Hazmat suits.

The site is still off limits with signs warning of the hazard. It won't be completely safe for a long time yet.

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Old 16th March 2018, 09:05 AM   #346
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BBC News: Murder inquiry over Russian's London death (breaking)

"UK police launch murder investigation after death of Russian businessman Nikolai Glushkov in south-west London."
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Old 16th March 2018, 09:34 AM   #347
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I do have my doubts, and very little confidence, in that new sixth form college kid defence minister proposing anthrax vaccines for the soldiers. There is no real proof yet either that Putin wants to restore the old Soviet administrations, as this Toryboy seems to think. These doctor-like people have never come up with an explanation for Gulf war syndrome, which is real, and very unfair on the soldiers and their families affected, both in Britain and America:

https://www.naturodoc.com/library/pu...ax_vaccine.htm
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Old 16th March 2018, 09:42 AM   #348
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
I agree with you but that is the worst *********** analogy I've heard in a couple years.

I'll let someone else pick it apart though, as I do think jumping to conclusions in this situation is idiocy even though my personal gut feeling says Russia.
Why is it a bad analogy? The nerve agent is Russian in origin, no other nation or orginization is known to have produced or procured it. The U.K. Asked Moscow for any reason it might have ended up in the hands of any other organization or national agency. The result was silence. Putin gave a giant middle finger to the civilized world.
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Old 16th March 2018, 10:04 AM   #349
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Originally Posted by autumn1971 View Post
Why is it a bad analogy? The nerve agent is Russian in origin, no other nation or orginization is known to have produced or procured it. The U.K. Asked Moscow for any reason it might have ended up in the hands of any other organization or national agency. The result was silence. Putin gave a giant middle finger to the civilized world.
Putin did say in the initial investigation that he was willing to participate in the investigation. This was immediately rejected and ignored by the British. Part of the trouble is the lack of extradition agreements with countries like Russia. There is an extradition agreement between the UK and America but that has been proved controversial in several cases. British people have been extradited to America, but there is no question of any IRA murderers being extradited to the UK from America.
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Old 16th March 2018, 10:08 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by Henri McPhee View Post
Putin did say in the initial investigation that he was willing to participate in the investigation.
Why the **** would anyone want the prime suspect in a crime to participate in the investigation?
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Old 16th March 2018, 10:23 AM   #351
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For all those saying the UK should have waited/should be waiting to make accusations, or shouldn't be "jumping to conclusions" - the problem is that that approach is exactly what Putin wants. And by waiting a few months/years for the thorough and full investigation first the UK would lose all impetus from its Allies.

I do hope - and expect - that in due course a full and thorough investigation will be done and published. The UK actually has a pretty good track record on this front (in dramatic opposition to Russia who are the very model of a secret state).

In this situation where Porton Down has positively indentified the agent as something only ever made and stored by Russia, and in light of what we know about the Russian state, eg. read the litvinenko report: https://www.gov.uk/government/public...der-litvinenko I think it is entirely reasonable to act now while the UK government can get maximum effect from its allies.
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Old 16th March 2018, 10:38 AM   #352
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Putin isn't responsible for every Russian that gets murdered.
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Old 16th March 2018, 10:57 AM   #353
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Out of curiosity what evidence would *you* need before you'd say it was more likely than not that the Russian state was behind these attempted murders (albeit I suspect it is murder as they are pretty much dead now)?

Well, any would be a step in the right direction, preferably before laying blame. So if you have a time capsule, we can go back to the 4th and see if a less ridiculous story develops.

b has put out another essential piece on the issue, going a bit into the timing as well.

I agree with him that the most likely motive has something to do with Skripal's connection to Steele and the "piss dossier" on Trump. Depending on what you think about the credibility of that work, the motive could lay on "both sides" to make him stop using his insider knowledge. As I happen to understand that it is total rubbish, I think the old guy tried to benefit financially by blackmailing Steele and gang threatening to go public.

Bad idea, they took him out with something much more profane and just made sure that some extravagant "samples" were delivered to Porton Down - maybe from own stock - to use the opportunity to start another "blame Putin" hysteria.

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Old 16th March 2018, 11:03 AM   #354
Babbylonian
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Originally Posted by Henri McPhee View Post
Putin isn't responsible for every Russian that gets murdered.
So, no more insane, improbable theories? Just a strawman? I guess that's a kind of progress.
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Old 16th March 2018, 11:07 AM   #355
jimbob
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Originally Posted by autumn1971 View Post
Why is it a bad analogy? The nerve agent is Russian in origin, no other nation or orginization is known to have produced or procured it. The U.K. Asked Moscow for any reason it might have ended up in the hands of any other organization or national agency. The result was silence. Putin gave a giant middle finger to the civilized world.
Did you see my proposed alteration, which was to replace "gun" with "exotic poison" and to add that the prime suspect has a history of using exotic poisons?
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Old 16th March 2018, 11:09 AM   #356
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Originally Posted by mifune View Post
In this situation where Porton Down has positively indentified the agent as something only ever made and stored by Russia, ...
Though it was researched and tested in Uzbekistan. Several years passed between Uzbekistan gaining independence and that facility being dismantled. That Novichok might have got into the hands of non-Russians is far from a stretch.
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Old 16th March 2018, 11:15 AM   #357
Childlike Empress
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Though it was researched and tested in Uzbekistan. Several years passed between Uzbekistan gaining independence and that facility being dismantled. That Novichok might have got into the hands of non-Russians is far from a stretch.

The whistleblower has written a book on his experiences which includes the formulas, and he has commented on this very case that only Russia knew how to make it ... and people who read his book. He literally said that.
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Old 16th March 2018, 11:40 AM   #358
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Though it was researched and tested in Uzbekistan. Several years passed between Uzbekistan gaining independence and that facility being dismantled. That Novichok might have got into the hands of non-Russians is far from a stretch.

It is a stretch. Because there is absolutely no evidence that this happened.

Nerve agents are not simple to handle or store. They are extremely dangerous and this particular one is extremely persistent. Very few states (let alone non state actors) would even have the infrastructure and training to handle this stuff without *********** it up.

Deploying a nerve agent in this way, as an assassination weapon is not simple or easy.

No one has any indication that any other state or organisation has this agent, and it makes quite a lot of sense given Russia's MO for them to still have some and we know they have the organisational capability of using it in an assassination on foreign soil. And we know they have done this sort of thing before not so long ago.

Also for it to be a non russian actor then we are talking about a false flag operation. Thats not impossible but it does seem unlikely. Of who might want to conduct such a false flag who would risk it? If some pissant country or organisation does this and the UK finds out retribution might be pretty severe. Russia is big and dangerous enough to ride this out, others are not.

Hopefully when the investigation is complete there will be strong evidence linking (presumably) russian individuals to the act. See the Litvinienko report for the sort of evidence the UK collected last time this happened.

In an ideal world I would say wait and see the full results of the investigation. But that plays into Putin's hands and the end result would be a much damper response. So in the realpolitik of today I think it makes sense for the UK to start acting now.
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Old 16th March 2018, 11:54 AM   #359
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Though it was researched and tested in Uzbekistan. Several years passed between Uzbekistan gaining independence and that facility being dismantled. That Novichok might have got into the hands of non-Russians is far from a stretch.
What is a stretch is that someone would get a hold of it, safely keep it in storage for over two decades (how long of a shelf-life does it have?), discretely bring it into the UK and finally use it to assassinate a Russian double agent. It's far more likely that the British authorities just made up everything and that they are really fine at some safe-house.

I mean why the hell would anyone go through such an incredibly convoluted plot instead of just shooting him dead with a gun? Likewise if you wanted to be conspiratorial, "they" could probably stage it as suicide and not drawn any attention to themselves.
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Old 16th March 2018, 11:57 AM   #360
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In the pipeline blogpost tgat covers some of this

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline...lies-and-liars

Quote:
t her statement about this incident did her and the UK credit). The nerve agent identified is a known Russian-developed “Novichok” compound, a newer variety of organophosphorus poison. While it is certainly possible that such a compound could have been produced by a third party, it would require a very dedicated one indeed, since no details of the structures or synthesis have ever appeared in the scientific literature. The chemistry of the organophosphorus nerve agents is not particularly difficult (as was remarked in that earlier post), but that’s if you already know the optimized reactions and conditions. Doing route discovery on latest-generation nerve agents is not a casual undertaking, and anyone trying it outside of a very well-equipped lab setting is likely to die in the attempt.
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link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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