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Old 6th August 2020, 11:32 PM   #921
Planigale
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Thank you for this.

I was told that last week about running and red blood cells, but not about the feet.

Do you know if my current "mild neutropenia" might be related?
No, I have not heard about neutropenia, and running. So I can neither confirm nor deny this. Normal values for neutrophils are variable. For Europeans the normal lower value is 4 (000 / micro litre), but Africans often have normal counts down to about 1. Most neutrophils hide away and only a small proportion circulate so the blood count is a poor marker of total number. Values of less than 1 are certainly getting to the point when people are at risk of infection. Virus infections often cause a transient drop in neutrophil counts.
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Old 7th August 2020, 02:29 AM   #922
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
No, I have not heard about neutropenia, and running. So I can neither confirm nor deny this. Normal values for neutrophils are variable. For Europeans the normal lower value is 4 (000 / micro litre), but Africans often have normal counts down to about 1. Most neutrophils hide away and only a small proportion circulate so the blood count is a poor marker of total number. Values of less than 1 are certainly getting to the point when people are at risk of infection. Virus infections often cause a transient drop in neutrophil counts.
Thanks a lot. Mine are 1.8, but were 3.6 on July 20 and same in February before COVID-19.

I'm feeling much better this week, though, after recovering from a tooth extraction last week that caused me to get severely dehydrated / low Sodium on Friday July 31. That could have had something to do with the neutropenia.
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Old 7th August 2020, 09:39 AM   #923
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It looks as if new confirmed cases per day, worldwide, for the time being, have peaked or plateaued.

India's reported new cases have indeed exceeded the U.S.'s for most of the past several days, but that's as much due to decreases in U.S. reported new cases as increases in India's. India set a new high yesterday but overall their surge looks like it might be slowing.
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Old 7th August 2020, 11:26 AM   #924
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
It looks as if new confirmed cases per day, worldwide, for the time being, have peaked or plateaued.

India's reported new cases have indeed exceeded the U.S.'s for most of the past several days, but that's as much due to decreases in U.S. reported new cases as increases in India's. India set a new high yesterday but overall their surge looks like it might be slowing.
I am afraid the hilighted is going to turn out to be the case.
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Old 7th August 2020, 12:07 PM   #925
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
I am afraid the hilighted is going to turn out to be the case.

Yep. That's the problem with the Time Being. He changes his mind so often. Whatever you try to do for him, you can't predict how long he'll let you keep doing it.
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Old 7th August 2020, 06:58 PM   #926
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
Yep. That's the problem with the Time Being. He changes his mind so often. Whatever you try to do for him, you can't predict how long he'll let you keep doing it.
Yeah. Might be ok until European colder weather sets in and indoor, recirculated air becomes common. Hopefully, by then countries will have gotten their act together with rapid antigen tests and contact tracing and can control it. Or maybe we'll have a vaccine. Time will tell.
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Old 7th August 2020, 09:05 PM   #927
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Governor of Ohio Mike DeWine tested positive. 19 hours later they retested him and he tested negative.

False positive?

Importantly, they were different kinds of tests.

Ohio Gov. DeWine tests negative for COVID-19 hours after testing positive (Fox News)

Quote:
"The PCR tests for the Governor, First Lady, and staff were run twice," the statement said. "They came back negative the first time and came back negative when they were run on a second diagnostic platform."

His office said the PCR test was different than the rapid antigen test administered earlier in the morning as part of the standard protocol required to meet with Trump.

"We will be working with the manufacturer to have a better understanding of how the discrepancy between these two tests could have occurred," the statement added.
How Accurate Are Virus Tests? Ohio Governor’s Results Show Positives and Negatives (New York Times)

Quote:
With testing delays nationwide, experts are increasingly recommending a new type of rapid test that gives less accurate results. It is imperfect, but as one expert put it, “pretty good is a lot better than none.”
Quote:
At issue are two types of coronavirus tests that are increasingly taking center stage as part of the virus response in the United States. As part of a screening by the White House, Mr. DeWine first received an antigen test, a newer type of test that provides faster results but is less accurate than traditional laboratory testing. He was later tested using a more standard procedure known as polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., an accurate but time-intensive method that requires samples to be processed at a laboratory.
Quote:
Experts say results are needed within 24 to 48 hours to effectively quarantine and contact trace. In the United States, turnaround times are often stretching three to five days, or more.
PCR tests, while more accurate than the antigen test, can take many days for the results to get back due to laboratory backlogs. In those days, waiting for the results, if the person isn't quarantined while awaiting the results, they could be out spreading the virus. So there is an advantage to learning the results quickly. The downside is less accuracy.


Quote:
How accurate are the results?

All virus tests have the possibility of an inaccurate result. “It is just a fact of clinical testing,” said Dr. Miller, who recommended using common sense about the risk of exposure when evaluating unexpected results.

But antigen tests are generally less sensitive and less accurate than the traditional nasal swab, laboratory test. Interestingly, antigen tests are more likely to produce false negatives — missing someone who has the virus — than false positives, the opposite of what appears to have happened to Mr. DeWine.
Quote:
the tests could produce false negative results between 15 and 20 percent of the time.
So false negatives, not just false positives, are an issue with these tests. And even the more reliable PCR tests are not necessarily 100% accurate.
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Old 7th August 2020, 09:13 PM   #928
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Yep, the tests Trump is using have a high false negative rate along with those false positive issues.

Maybe that's why some people like Kimberly Guilfoyle never got sick after testing positive.
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Old 7th August 2020, 09:29 PM   #929
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
I dont understand the rush to get back to school. This was a golden opportunity to reform that crap.

The idea that they will learn more being punching bags for warehoused kids than watching youtube is beneath a skeptics forum
Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
The getting mobbed by thugs? I think they can do without that interaction.
Mate, you seem to have an unnecessarily bad view of schools. They're not perfect, but the vast majority of kids seem to turn out ok. I'd love to see schooling restructured, but it's not going to happen this month.

I've posted screeds of evidence from UNESCO, the CDC and other sources about the benefit of sending kids to school and the potentially lifelong trouble not having schools open is likely to cause.

Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
India set a new high yesterday but overall their surge looks like it might be slowing.
I'd noticed that, and I think it's showing that for a variety of reasons, Covid is at least partly seasonal. People aren't anywhere near as likely to catch it outside as in, and vitamin D is still in play as people build their levels while the sun's shining.

Also, there are still vast numbers of people being super-cautious, and that must lower the infection rate.

The other thing is that while we're pretty sure official cases were under by a factor of ten, I figure that factor is probably higher still now. Recent testing shows highest numbers in the groups of least harm, and it makes sense that vast numbers of them won't even know they have it, so are passing it around even more than it appears.
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Old 7th August 2020, 10:32 PM   #930
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To poke at the US numbers in a slightly less official way...

Quote:
“Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from Mar 15 to Jul 25, according to CDC estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags..54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period.”
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Old 7th August 2020, 11:09 PM   #931
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Some very interesting numbers from a single plant in the meat industry:

0.2% fatality rate
4% hospitalisation rate
Less than 25% of infected people passed it on to someone outside the plant

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coron...b6b9cff7f19790
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Old 8th August 2020, 02:50 AM   #932
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I've posted screeds of evidence from UNESCO, the CDC and other sources about the benefit of sending kids to school and the potentially lifelong trouble not having schools open is likely to cause.
The guys who told us not to wear masks? I'm not sure I'll trust something they have a vested political interest in like warehousing kids in "school"
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Old 8th August 2020, 02:05 PM   #933
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Heterogeneity in Covid-19 infection response has always been puzzling. For instance the 60 people in the Saggit choir where most were infected and symptomatic with 2 dying v the Henderson farm workers where 200 workers tested positive and no one was even symptomatic.

This might be explained by Vitamin D variations between the groups but also there my be cross immunity from prior coronavirus colds. Given the farm workers worked and lived together they may have been subject to such a coronavirus cold earlier. Perhaps a combination of these and/or other factors yet to be found.

More research indicating cross reactivity with T cell response from common cold coronaviruses.

Selective and cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes in unexposed humans

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abd3871

Quote:
We demonstrate a range of pre-existing memory CD4+ T cells that are cross-reactive with comparable affinity to SARS-CoV-2 and the common cold coronaviruses HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, or HCoV-HKU1. Thus, variegated T cell memory to coronaviruses that cause the common cold may underlie at least some of the extensive heterogeneity observed in COVID-19 disease.
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Last edited by marting; 8th August 2020 at 02:12 PM.
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Old 8th August 2020, 02:12 PM   #934
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I'd guess the Skagit choir members tended significantly older than the farm workers.
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Old 8th August 2020, 02:32 PM   #935
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'd guess the Skagit choir members tended significantly older than the farm workers.
True, but that mostly affects mortality. Whether you are symptomatic or not is not all that different for those above 30 y/o. Lots of people that test positive in nursing homes are asymptomatic.
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Old 8th August 2020, 03:17 PM   #936
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The average age was quite old but there were a number of younger choir members too. I read quite a detailed article about it at the time.

That choir practice was on 10th March. On 12th March our village doctor who plays the trumpet in the jazz band emailed our musical director saying that he wasn't prepared to go to any more rehearsals or perform in the jazz band's upcoming concert, and in fact he believed the rehearsals and concert should be called off. As a result the musical director also called off orchestra practice and the orchestra's upcoming concert at the same time. After I got that email I emailed back saying what about choir (the next practice was scheduled for 15th March), shouldn't that be called off too, and indeed it was. (By that time I had no intention of going to any of these things anyway.)

Not long after that I read an initial account of what had happened at the Skagit Valley rehearsal and forwarded it to both the doctor and the musical director, thanking the doctor for getting the rehearsals called off. (People had apparently been telling him at the time that he was over-reacting.) I said we'd never know if there would have been anyone with the virus at the cancelled rehearsal because people could be infected without showing symptoms, but we could have dodged a bullet there.

Well, well. At the beginning of all this, when that idiot BoJo was telling us that we had to take it on the chin and let half a million people die to achieve herd immunity, I was panicking a bit about friends and relations. Once I'd gone through the list of vulnerable relations (who all got phone calls urging them more or less not to leave their homes for the next three months) the next person on my worry list was the musical director. In his late 70s, with quite severe asthma. A complete live-wire always jetting off somewhere, but managing to keep one choir, one orchestra, one jazz band and two early music ensembles going, not to mention one church, and still work part-time as a university professor. Frankly, with him gone half my social life would collapse.

I heard nothing from anyone except close neighbours for the first few weeks of the lockdown, but finally the church got Sunday services organised on Zoom. It was a huge relief to me to see the musical director and his wife sitting safely at home and organising one of the services from their music room. I gathered they were shielding, and they seemed quite well. Big relief.

I discovered only last week or thereabouts that he had actually had the bloody virus in the early stages of the pandemic. He must have caught it before the lockdown, and realistically before 12th March because that was when we all effectively locked down following the doctor's emails. The friend who told me said she thought he'd got it when he travelled to England to attend a funeral on about 9th March. Apparently he was very ill and his wife, who wasn't even supposed to be going close to him in the house, thought she was going to lose him.

That being the case, it's almost inevitable that he would have been infectious on 15th March, the day of the cancelled choir practice. I don't know what he thought about my innocent emails to him and the doctor thanking them for cancelling it, because he must have realised by then.

I'm fairly glad I didn't know at the time. I was pretty stressed by the whole thing, especially by what the doctor had said about the official estimate being for 50 deaths in the village with the then-current herd immunity strategy. The musical director seems absolutely fine now, I'd never have guessed he'd been ill, and let's just hope his cornetto playing isn't affected. But it just goes to show, you never know. The bullet whistled right past our ears.
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Old Today, 09:03 AM   #937
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I found out more about the above situation, which is mildly interesting.

The email exchanges prompted by the doctor's alarm were on 12th March. After that everything was cancelled, and I understand that a social gathering at the home of the choir secretary, originally planned for something like 18th March, was also cancelled on the advice of the musical director. It seems to me that after that email exchange he was taking this seriously and being genuinely careful, in contrast to his reported behaviour at the funeral a week or so earlier when he was apparently quite cavalier.

Yesterday another choir member with printer problems asked me to print some music for her for our Zoom sessions. To find the files, I ordered my incoming emails by sender and looked down the ones received from the musical director. Well well, again. After the ones cancelling everything (13th March) the next one is dated 26th March and is headed "Keep singing!" In it he says, "I've been thinking about the possibility of organising an occasional Zoom online rehearsal..." I'd actually forgotten about that.

Then absolute radio silence until 21st June, nearly three months later. Then we got, "I'm working on a plan to get rehearsals under way online shortly. Watch this space!" Um, yes... Now I know he was OK earlier than this because I saw him on the Zoom church services in early May, but it looks as if the virus must have hit him clinically after 26th March. (I note that the email I sent to him about the Skagit Valley incident and thanking him for cancelling our rehearsal was dated 27th March. Not sure how tactful this was in retrospect.)

So I was wondering, if he was infected prior to 12th March (indeed possibly 9th March which was I believe the date of the funeral), how come he didn't get sick until after 26th March? That's at least two weeks and possibly more like three. I just saw this in the New York Times.

Quote:
Catching and containing a person at their most infectious is another matter, however. Some people stricken with the coronavirus start to feel unwell within a couple days, whereas others take weeks, and many never end up experiencing symptoms. The length of the so-called incubation period, which spans the time between infection and the onset of symptoms, can be so variable that some people who catch the virus fall ill before the person who gave it to them does. That rarely happens with the flu, which reliably rouses a spate of symptoms within a couple days of infection.

So yes, perfectly possible. This does make a bit of a mockery of the advice we were being given back then that if you were going to get sick you'd know within five days, and indeed even the isolation periods being talked about now. So was he at a stage likely to pass on the infection on 15th March? I do not know but I'm extremely glad it wasn't put to the test.
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Old Today, 09:58 AM   #938
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The Paulding County, GA, school where the hallway photo was taken has temporarily closed and switched to online instruction after a Covid-19 outbreak : https://www.ajc.com/education/9-case...DQMXX337AQEWI/ .
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Old Today, 11:02 AM   #939
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Well, ain't that a surprise.
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Old Today, 02:28 PM   #940
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Yup. Particularly since the first response from school officials, reportedly, was basically "these things will happen, we just isolate...". So now they're isolating... everyone. Good job. [/sarcasm]
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Old Today, 04:10 PM   #941
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Re the latest school kerfuffle: clearly two days cleaning surfaces without any effort to quarantine students and staff long enough is indeed feel-good theater.

But don't rule out surface and fomite spread because there isn't a flood of evidence yet about this means of transmission. That was the mistake I kept screaming Fauci et al were making in regards to asymptomatic spread and the benefits of masks, and more recently the mistake was repeated dismissing aerosol spread.

Aerosol and Surface Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2
Pilot study in an isolation area of the University of Nebraska Medical Center
Quote:
The study found that 71% of all personal items sampled were positive for SARS-CoV-2 (cellular phones were 78% positive, remote controls for in-room televisions were 56% positive, samples of toilets were 81% positive, 71% of the bedside tables and bed rails and 73% of the window ledges, all the floor beneath patients’ beds’ samples and four-fifths of ventilation grates tested positive by RT-PCR. Samples taken in the hallways were 58.3% positive.

The highest airborne concentrations were recorded by personal samplers in the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit while the patient was receiving oxygen through a nasal cannula. No cough was observed while sampling was taking place. Correlation between the strength of positivity of samples and symptoms was weak. An air sample and a window sill sample had weak replication results.

What did they do?
The study reports the results of environmental sampling (air and surface) around thirteen individuals in isolation for Covid-19 on days 5 to 9 and 10 of occupancy. Additional samples were obtained on day 18 after another patient had been admitted to the unit for four days. The surface samples came from common room surfaces, personal items, and toilets.
Clearly not definitive and we don't know if those samples represented the risk the virus could then be contracted by persons touching the surfaces and then touching their eye/nose/mouth.


Aerosol and surface distribution of SARs-CoV-2 in hospital wards, Wuhan, China
Quote:
Bottom Line
In a hospital treating COVID-19 patients, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found widely distributed in surface and air samples.

Evidence Summary
Contamination was greater in intensive care units (54/124 samples) than general wards (9/114 samples).

A 100% rate of positivity was found on the floor in the pharmacy, where there were no patients.

Half of the samples from the soles of the ICU medical staff shoes tested positive.

The rate of positivity was relatively high for floor swab samples (ICU 7/10; general ward 2/13).

The highest rates were found for computer mice (ICU 6/8; general ward 1/5), followed by trash cans (ICU 3/ 5; general ward 0/8), sickbed handrails (ICU 6/14; general ward 0/12), and doorknobs (general ward 1/12, 8.3%).

SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in the air 4 m from patients.
The floor of the pharmacy! Think about that, it means people are tracking the virus all over the hospital. It means you probably contaminate your hands taking off your shoes if you've been in a high infection environment like that church choir where lots of people got infected.

A school corridor is going to turn out to be a problem if schools are opened too soon or without adequate control measures.

The details and floor plan of the sampled areas can be found at the link.
Quote:
What else should I consider?
The authors suggest the high contamination of floors is due to gravity and airflow causing most virus droplets to float to the ground, as well as medical staff moving the contamination with their shoes as they walk around. It is unexplained, why three of five COVID-19 patients’ masks tested negative.

This is the link I used to find these studies: The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine develops, promotes and disseminates better evidence for healthcare. - Open Evidence Reviews - Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19
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Old Today, 04:44 PM   #942
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Re the latest school kerfuffle: clearly two days cleaning surfaces without any effort to quarantine students and staff long enough is indeed feel-good theater.

But don't rule out surface and fomite spread because there isn't a flood of evidence yet about this means of transmission. That was the mistake I kept screaming Fauci et al were making in regards to asymptomatic spread and the benefits of masks, and more recently the mistake was repeated dismissing aerosol spread.

Aerosol and Surface Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2
Pilot study in an isolation area of the University of Nebraska Medical Center


Clearly not definitive and we don't know if those samples represented the risk the virus could then be contracted by persons touching the surfaces and then touching their eye/nose/mouth.


Aerosol and surface distribution of SARs-CoV-2 in hospital wards, Wuhan, ChinaThe floor of the pharmacy! Think about that, it means people are tracking the virus all over the hospital. It means you probably contaminate your hands taking off your shoes if you've been in a high infection environment like that church choir where lots of people got infected.

A school corridor is going to turn out to be a problem if schools are opened too soon or without adequate control measures.

The details and floor plan of the sampled areas can be found at the link.



This is the link I used to find these studies: The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine develops, promotes and disseminates better evidence for healthcare. - Open Evidence Reviews - Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19
I always hated having to take my shoes off at the airport for this reason. (before Covid-19, even). They should supply little disposable Post-It papers for your stocking feet before you have to step anywhere anyone else did. Just step on, walk through, peel off, discard. I always meant to bring some self-made ones, but don't travel enough to remember in time to make them beforehand.
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