[Continuation] The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 3 - Page 27

marting · 23rd February 2021, 03:43 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

So many contradictory studies...
The conundrum continues.

And some things just can't be double blinded. Like mask efficacy. Observational only.

marting · 23rd February 2021, 03:55 PM

Very high, 60,000IUs daily for 8-10 days, doses of Vit. D. produced significant decreases in a large range of inflammatory markers.

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...manuscript.pdf

marting · 24th February 2021, 01:25 PM

Efficacy and safety of Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine in patients with severe COVID-19. A randomized controlled trial

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...a3592939f0c7d0

Small double blind RCT study shows no benefit from either.

The Atheist · 24th February 2021, 02:47 PM

Ok, ladies, gentlemen, and non-binary people, put your bets on the NZ Covid Roulette!

We currently have a handful of cases - they're up to "I", so I'm picking there are 9 so far.

One case worked a shift at a McDonald's, another worked two shifts at a large department store, three were attending a high school. They are all infected with the UK strain.

Of people who may have been exposed, the earliest positive test they can do is tomorrow, so it would be fairly sensible to just tone down the mass events this weekend. Auckland - where all the cases are - has three events on the weekend that will attract crowds of 20,000+ people. (the fact that many Aucklanders will be attending other events nationwide is hardly worth mentioning)

Accordingly, we are about to play Covid roulette. There is a chance that several cases will be out and about at these events, potentially causing a superspreader event. Or even several.

We've been very lucky to date, but taking this risk is a step too far for my liking, and the liking of our top microbiologist: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...1-expert-warns

I'll be keeping a very close eye on the data, but Aussie has already seen the light and shut the quarantine-free travel door.

The Atheist · 24th February 2021, 02:54 PM

Originally Posted by marting

Very high, 60,000IUs daily for 8-10 days, doses of Vit. D. produced significant decreases in a large range of inflammatory markers.

https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...manuscript.pdf

Small study, but compelling, especially when you add it to the Spanish study. The protocols and methods appear very sound, and really does call for a major study asap.

I think it's very near to case closed on the treatment. We should be doing it as standard.

I know my D levels are high as hell, spending hours a day in the sun. Helluva tan, too!

arthwollipot · 24th February 2021, 02:57 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Ok, ladies, gentlemen, and non-binary people, put your bets on the NZ Covid Roulette!

You've got this. New Zealand has been one of the best, if not the best, countries in the world at containing this. You know how to handle it. You're going to be fine.

And when this is all over and travel is normalised, I'll come over and visit. That's a promise.

The Atheist · 24th February 2021, 04:37 PM

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

You've got this. New Zealand has been one of the best, if not the best, countries in the world at containing this. You know how to handle it. You're going to be fine.

That's the official position. If it were true, I doubt the experts would be so concerned.

Overall, we'll be fine, because we'll shut down any outbreak, but we could have ensured there wasn't one by not betting the weekend turns out ok.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

And when this is all over and travel is normalised, I'll come over and visit. That's a promise.

Good on ya - I'll buy you a coffee, or whatever tipple you're on then.

The Atheist · 24th February 2021, 05:30 PM

Meanwhile, in Tanzania...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ess-conference

Yeah, he's fine.

Blue Mountain · 24th February 2021, 09:21 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Meanwhile, in Tanzania...

Condemnation as coughing Tanzanian minister gives news conference [Aljazeera]

Video of Finance Minister Philip Mpango, maskless and in a coughing fit, has been widely condemned.

Yeah, he's fine.

FTFY.

zooterkin · 25th February 2021, 02:48 PM

Just caught the end of a TV special on Covid-19. Long covid seems to have some similarities with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (aka ME, or, more disparagingly, yuppie flu). People get exhausted by doing what were previously activities they achieved easily. That looks as though it will give legitimacy to CFS sufferers (many GPs have dismissed it as not a real disease), and extra research may find a cure, or at the least a better understanding of it, if it is similar to long Covid. The suspicion is that it may be something affecting the mitochondria in the cells.

The people most often affected by long Covid seem to be those who were fit and not badly affected, and who resumed their normal levels of activity quickly. The recommendation now is to take things easy if you're infected, even if you don't feel too bad.

Rolfe · 25th February 2021, 02:56 PM

My GP friend tried to tell that to her daughter, a nurse who caught covid at work. Oh no, she was determined to go right back and do a double shift. She seems to have got away with it.

The Atheist · 25th February 2021, 03:03 PM

Originally Posted by zooterkin

Just caught the end of a TV special on Covid-19.

I'm picking that's related to this: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news...al-impacts-who

With the potential numbers growing quickly, this is going to be a problem for a lot of years, given the ages of the afflicted.

Puppycow · 26th February 2021, 12:17 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Meanwhile, in Tanzania...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ess-conference

Yeah, he's fine.

Quote:

Days after President John Mafuguli finally admitted Tanzania has a coronavirus problem, after months of apparent denial and increasing warnings of a resurgence in infections, the sight of the country’s finance minister coughing and gasping during a news conference to defend the state of his health has left many in shock.

Yeah, I mentioned what's happening there in another thread. Astounding.

Tanzania’s president admits country has COVID-19 problem

Quote:

The president of Tanzania has urged its citizens to take preventive measures against the coronavirus after downplaying the disease for months and claiming it had been defeated by prayers.

What, prayers don't work against viruses? Maybe they didn't pray hard enough or with the right rituals or to the right deity?

The Atheist · 26th February 2021, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

What, prayers don't work against viruses? Maybe they didn't pray hard enough or with the right rituals or to the right deity?

Jesus, things must be pretty bad if he's changed his mind. I'd say the SA variant has arrived there, because the death of three Members of Parliament didn't move him about 9 months ago.

marting · 26th February 2021, 05:15 PM

In the USA Covid-19 cases declined nicely from Jan until about a week ago. People were starting to shout "Herd Immunity" in a redux of similar refrains from last summer. Then they stabilized and have even gone up slightly. Same with deaths. Interestingly, NY deaths and cases hadn't declined as much as most other states in spite of being a leading state with the most deaths where herd immunity should be a big factor.

Recent studies indicate a new variant that has increased in NY from 1% in Dec. to 5% in Jan. to over 20% in Feb. Not good.

The Atheist · 26th February 2021, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by marting

In the USA Covid-19 cases declined nicely from Jan until about a week ago. People were starting to shout "Herd Immunity" in a redux of similar refrains from last summer. Then they stabilized and have even gone up slightly. Same with deaths. Interestingly, NY deaths and cases hadn't declined as much as most other states in spite of being a leading state with the most deaths where herd immunity should be a big factor.

Recent studies indicate a new variant that has increased in NY from 1% in Dec. to 5% in Jan. to over 20% in Feb. Not good.

Yeah, I've just started seeing a few worried noises from experts.

Hopefully, most vulnerable people will have been vaccinated before it breaks out again.

Orphia Nay · 26th February 2021, 07:46 PM

Originally Posted by zooterkin

Just caught the end of a TV special on Covid-19. Long covid seems to have some similarities with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (aka ME, or, more disparagingly, yuppie flu). People get exhausted by doing what were previously activities they achieved easily. That looks as though it will give legitimacy to CFS sufferers (many GPs have dismissed it as not a real disease), and extra research may find a cure, or at the least a better understanding of it, if it is similar to long Covid. The suspicion is that it may be something affecting the mitochondria in the cells.

The people most often affected by long Covid seem to be those who were fit and not badly affected, and who resumed their normal levels of activity quickly. The recommendation now is to take things easy if you're infected, even if you don't feel too bad.

Seems relevant to me.

I can't run like I used to, and after having Covid in March 2020, I resumed running as before, and my abilities and energy have just dwindled and dwindled.

I've had my blood tested numerous times, and after sorting out iron, D, and zinc deficiencies, I'm still tired, and we can't get my sodium up.

Orphia Nay · 26th February 2021, 07:48 PM

Major rise in public support for COVID vaccine – Oxford study

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-24...e-oxford-study

"More than three quarters of people in the UK now say they are ’very likely’ to have the vaccine – up from 50% among the same group of survey respondents five months ago –according to a two-wave Oxford University survey published today [February 24, 2021]."

The study:

https://rpubs.com/benwansell/729135

Orphia Nay · 26th February 2021, 10:04 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I think we might have to re-consider the "Covid came from outer space" idea, because even with the new cluster contained in Auckland (and all restrictions lifted) the health ministry has no idea how the infection started.

No intermediate cases have been found and genomic testing shows no relationship to any virus identified here since December, which can't be where it came from.

Yet again, we're left with an unknown fomite transmission.

Maybe the virus has been in the population, but only giving mild or asymptomatic cases and then these new cases are more serious enough to be noticed.

For example, transmitted from family member to family members with tendencies to just be asymptomatic, or healthy community groups such as sporting clubs who have mild or no symptoms.

Just wondering.

The Atheist · 26th February 2021, 11:10 PM

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Maybe the virus has been in the population, but only giving mild or asymptomatic cases and then these new cases are more serious enough to be noticed.

For example, transmitted from family member to family members with tendencies to just be asymptomatic, or healthy community groups such as sporting clubs who have mild or no symptoms.

Just wondering.

Possible, but unlikely.

We're finally testing sewage and it's clear at the moment, so if there are other cases, they're one or two.

It's all quite bizarre, although the fact that it's stinking hot might be helping.

Samson · Yesterday, 01:26 AM

Auckland back in lockdown for 7 days.
New Zealand for 3.

The Atheist · Yesterday, 01:40 AM

Originally Posted by Samson

Auckland back in lockdown for 7 days.
New Zealand for 3.

This is exactly why I said Cinderella was playing roulette with the country.

She just hit double zero - two new cases, unknown origin, working at high-transmission sites.

If there were a book available I'd be betting a lot more than 7 days.

Now, I'm off to the vent thread to say what I really think!

Carrot Flower King · Yesterday, 06:03 AM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

My GP friend tried to tell that to her daughter, a nurse who caught covid at work. Oh no, she was determined to go right back and do a double shift. She seems to have got away with it.

To re-purpose an old Yorkshireman gag: you can always tell a general nurse, but you just can't tell them much...

Yours,

A retired MH nurse, son of, brother of and cousin of general nurses (our mother was double qualified - general nurse and physio).

Rolfe · Yesterday, 06:17 AM

Ooh, don't go near Lindsay and say that. (Did I mention she's a Yorkshire lass, although she works in a hospital in Northumberland.)

Planigale · Yesterday, 09:08 AM

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

Seems relevant to me.

I can't run like I used to, and after having Covid in March 2020, I resumed running as before, and my abilities and energy have just dwindled and dwindled.

I've had my blood tested numerous times, and after sorting out iron, D, and zinc deficiencies, I'm still tired, and we can't get my sodium up.

Usually medication related but worth checking cortisol and thyroid levels.

Vixen · Yesterday, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Your neanderthal genes can both help...and hurt your odds of surviving Covid:

https://www.genomeweb.com/infectious...evere-covid-19

Here's a link to the same story that's not behind a 'register for free' block.

https://www.bionews.org.uk/page_154854

I have this variation, so presumably I don't need a vaccination?

Perhaps this mutation evolved in Homo neanderthalensis to fight off similar infections way back before the Last Glacial Maximum...but then they met the lethal Homo sapiens...

Quote:

Two researchers at the Karolinska Institutet in Sweden and the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany conducted the study. They analysed the DNA of those who had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had developed COVID-19. They then compared these sequences to Neanderthal DNA. Those whose sequence matched that of Neanderthals in this genomic region had a reduced risk of requiring COVID-19 hospitalisation.

Although Neanderthals became extinct about 40,000 years ago, these variants have increased in frequency over the last 20,000 years, likely due to their protective nature. The protective Neanderthal variants are located in the OAS genes. These encode enzymes that degrade viral RNA and could be crucial in the immune defence against SARS-CoV-2.

These findings are in stark contrast with the duo's previous report of Neanderthal variants that triple the risk of developing severe COVID-19 (see BioNews 1066).

I wish they would make up their minds. There'll be another scientist along shortly to aver the opposite result.

Vixen · Yesterday, 09:29 AM

Originally Posted by Lplus

No evidence?

The virus was first noted in Wuhan.

Wuhan contains a biolab close to the location of the wet market.

The biolab has had breaches of containment before.

Whilst that may not be forensically perfect, it is more than there is for any other scenario - and even criminals can be convicted on circumstantial evidence.

Logical fallacy no. 223: post hoc ergo propter hoc

Vixen · Yesterday, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another?

It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not?

...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located.

Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit.
Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country.

You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts!
You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.

It might seem suspicious but that is not how it works.

Skeptic Ginger · Yesterday, 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by Vixen

Logical fallacy no. 223: post hoc ergo propter hoc

Originally Posted by Vixen

It might seem suspicious but that is not how it works.

In the COVID origins thread you can debate this. It is more than suspicious.

Oystein · Today, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by marting

In the USA Covid-19 cases declined nicely from Jan until about a week ago. People were starting to shout "Herd Immunity" in a redux of similar refrains from last summer. Then they stabilized and have even gone up slightly. Same with deaths. Interestingly, NY deaths and cases hadn't declined as much as most other states in spite of being a leading state with the most deaths where herd immunity should be a big factor.

Recent studies indicate a new variant that has increased in NY from 1% in Dec. to 5% in Jan. to over 20% in Feb. Not good.

Exact same sort of trend we have in Germany, except ours started perhaps a week earlier.

zooterkin · Today, 02:44 PM

Originally Posted by Oystein

Exact same sort of trend we have in Germany, except ours started perhaps a week earlier.

The latest edition of More or Less looks at the falling cases in the USA and Germany, and elsewhere. No consensus on the reasons for it, though there are some possibilities (and, of course, it could be a combination of them).

Some of the possible factors are: most of the people who are likely to be exposed have already been exposed (not herd immunity in general, but a subset of it); the change of the seasons (though numbers are dropping in South Africa, too, where it's going into Autumn); vaccinations (though it's really too early for that to be having an effect); changes of behaviour that have reduced risk (not necessarily in response to any official lockdown).

Dr.Sid · Today, 03:04 PM

Czech Republic starts with toughest lockdown yet. No leaving city for 'just a walk', shopping only inside district (which we don't have for years, but it's useful division, it's like 20km across). You can only leave district for work, doctor, and other special cases.
Only essential shops open. Anywhere inside FFP2 respirator (cloth mask is not enough anymore), anywhere outside at least cloth mask.
Still no limits on work (home office where possible but that's it).
About time .. everything around is dropping, yet we're heading toward new records. And our records are world records. Well, to be fair, Slovakia is also trying hard ..

Oystein · Today, 03:21 PM

Originally Posted by zooterkin

The latest edition of More or Less looks at the falling cases in the USA and Germany, and elsewhere. No consensus on the reasons for it, though there are some possibilities (and, of course, it could be a combination of them).

Some of the possible factors are: most of the people who are likely to be exposed have already been exposed (not herd immunity in general, but a subset of it); the change of the seasons (though numbers are dropping in South Africa, too, where it's going into Autumn); vaccinations (though it's really too early for that to be having an effect); changes of behaviour that have reduced risk (not necessarily in response to any official lockdown).

Per Worldometers, the 7-day average for new daily cases in the USA peaked on January 11th at a bit over 255,000. At the beginning of that 7-day period, total number of detected cases stood at 21.4 million.
The most recent 7 days, ending February 27th, saw an average of only 70,000 new cases per day, and that week started with 28.7 million total cases.

So there was a 1/3 increase in total cases, but factor 3.5 decrease in new cases. I don't think that any form of herd immunity could have increased so significantly it made a major contribution to that decrease.
Similarly, the number of un-vaccinated people did not drop nearly enough to explain the drop in infections. As the podcast points out, even Israel with its much higher percentage of vaccinated people did not experience a great reduction yet because of it.

It is quite inescapable then that there are only two major contributions:
- Change in season
- Change in behavior

In Germany at least, it is pretty clear to me that changes in behavior play a larger role:

We had our peak just before Christmas, in the same month that lockdown was made more strict than ever before, people grooved into it, and cases started to fall. Rules haven't changed much in most of the country since.
Season may not have played much of a reason as February was more wintery than December and January.

The question then is: Why did the downward trend stop 2 weeks ago?
And I think it's a combination of said winter conditions, people getting tired of the lockdown (mobility data shows upward trends), and more infectious mutants becoming more frequent.

Epidemiologists now generally predict that we are on the foot of a third wave, and may be back to numbers like Christmas come Easter, especially as politics is under tremendous pressure to relax.

arthwollipot · Today, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Czech Republic starts with toughest lockdown yet. No leaving city for 'just a walk', shopping only inside district (which we don't have for years, but it's useful division, it's like 20km across). You can only leave district for work, doctor, and other special cases.
Only essential shops open. Anywhere inside FFP2 respirator (cloth mask is not enough anymore), anywhere outside at least cloth mask.
Still no limits on work (home office where possible but that's it).
About time .. everything around is dropping, yet we're heading toward new records. And our records are world records. Well, to be fair, Slovakia is also trying hard ..

That's how we controlled the outbreak in Melbourne.

23rd February 2021, 03:43 PM	#1041
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,132	Originally Posted by The Atheist So many contradictory studies... The conundrum continues. And some things just can't be double blinded. Like mask efficacy. Observational only.
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,132	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

23rd February 2021, 03:55 PM	#1042
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,132	Very high, 60,000IUs daily for 8-10 days, doses of Vit. D. produced significant decreases in a large range of inflammatory markers. https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...manuscript.pdf
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,132	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

24th February 2021, 01:25 PM	#1043
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,132	Efficacy and safety of Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine in patients with severe COVID-19. A randomized controlled trial https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...a3592939f0c7d0 Small double blind RCT study shows no benefit from either.
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,132	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

24th February 2021, 02:47 PM	#1044
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Ok, ladies, gentlemen, and non-binary people, put your bets on the NZ Covid Roulette! We currently have a handful of cases - they're up to "I", so I'm picking there are 9 so far. One case worked a shift at a McDonald's, another worked two shifts at a large department store, three were attending a high school. They are all infected with the UK strain. Of people who may have been exposed, the earliest positive test they can do is tomorrow, so it would be fairly sensible to just tone down the mass events this weekend. Auckland - where all the cases are - has three events on the weekend that will attract crowds of 20,000+ people. (the fact that many Aucklanders will be attending other events nationwide is hardly worth mentioning) Accordingly, we are about to play Covid roulette. There is a chance that several cases will be out and about at these events, potentially causing a superspreader event. Or even several. We've been very lucky to date, but taking this risk is a step too far for my liking, and the liking of our top microbiologist: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...1-expert-warns I'll be keeping a very close eye on the data, but Aussie has already seen the light and shut the quarantine-free travel door.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

24th February 2021, 02:54 PM	#1045
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Originally Posted by marting Very high, 60,000IUs daily for 8-10 days, doses of Vit. D. produced significant decreases in a large range of inflammatory markers. https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/sea...manuscript.pdf Small study, but compelling, especially when you add it to the Spanish study. The protocols and methods appear very sound, and really does call for a major study asap. I think it's very near to case closed on the treatment. We should be doing it as standard. I know my D levels are high as hell, spending hours a day in the sun. Helluva tan, too!
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

24th February 2021, 02:57 PM	#1046
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 70,252	Originally Posted by The Atheist Ok, ladies, gentlemen, and non-binary people, put your bets on the NZ Covid Roulette! You've got this. New Zealand has been one of the best, if not the best, countries in the world at containing this. You know how to handle it. You're going to be fine. And when this is all over and travel is normalised, I'll come over and visit. That's a promise.
	__________________ Please scream inside your heart.

24th February 2021, 04:37 PM	#1047
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Originally Posted by arthwollipot You've got this. New Zealand has been one of the best, if not the best, countries in the world at containing this. You know how to handle it. You're going to be fine. That's the official position. If it were true, I doubt the experts would be so concerned. Overall, we'll be fine, because we'll shut down any outbreak, but we could have ensured there wasn't one by not betting the weekend turns out ok. Originally Posted by arthwollipot And when this is all over and travel is normalised, I'll come over and visit. That's a promise. Good on ya - I'll buy you a coffee, or whatever tipple you're on then.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

24th February 2021, 05:30 PM	#1048
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Meanwhile, in Tanzania... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ess-conference Yeah, he's fine.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

24th February 2021, 09:21 PM	#1049
Blue Mountain Resident Skeptical Hobbit Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Waging war on woo-woo in Winnipeg Posts: 6,453	Originally Posted by The Atheist Meanwhile, in Tanzania... Condemnation as coughing Tanzanian minister gives news conference [Aljazeera] Video of Finance Minister Philip Mpango, maskless and in a coughing fit, has been widely condemned. Yeah, he's fine. FTFY.
	__________________ The social illusion reigns to-day upon all the heaped-up ruins of the past, and to it belongs the future. The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Gustav Le Bon, The Crowd, 1895 (from the French) Canadian or living in Canada? PM me if you want an entry on the list of Canadians on the forum.

25th February 2021, 02:48 PM	#1050
zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 48,389	Just caught the end of a TV special on Covid-19. Long covid seems to have some similarities with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (aka ME, or, more disparagingly, yuppie flu). People get exhausted by doing what were previously activities they achieved easily. That looks as though it will give legitimacy to CFS sufferers (many GPs have dismissed it as not a real disease), and extra research may find a cure, or at the least a better understanding of it, if it is similar to long Covid. The suspicion is that it may be something affecting the mitochondria in the cells. The people most often affected by long Covid seem to be those who were fit and not badly affected, and who resumed their normal levels of activity quickly. The recommendation now is to take things easy if you're infected, even if you don't feel too bad.
	__________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20

25th February 2021, 02:56 PM	#1051
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,916	My GP friend tried to tell that to her daughter, a nurse who caught covid at work. Oh no, she was determined to go right back and do a double shift. She seems to have got away with it.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

25th February 2021, 03:03 PM	#1052
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Originally Posted by zooterkin Just caught the end of a TV special on Covid-19. I'm picking that's related to this: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news...al-impacts-who With the potential numbers growing quickly, this is going to be a problem for a lot of years, given the ages of the afflicted.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

26th February 2021, 12:17 AM	#1053
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Yokohama, Japan Posts: 25,727	Originally Posted by The Atheist Meanwhile, in Tanzania... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ess-conference Yeah, he's fine. Quote: Days after President John Mafuguli finally admitted Tanzania has a coronavirus problem, after months of apparent denial and increasing warnings of a resurgence in infections, the sight of the country’s finance minister coughing and gasping during a news conference to defend the state of his health has left many in shock. Yeah, I mentioned what's happening there in another thread. Astounding. Tanzania’s president admits country has COVID-19 problem Quote: The president of Tanzania has urged its citizens to take preventive measures against the coronavirus after downplaying the disease for months and claiming it had been defeated by prayers. What, prayers don't work against viruses? Maybe they didn't pray hard enough or with the right rituals or to the right deity?
	__________________ A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare

26th February 2021, 03:57 PM	#1054
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Originally Posted by Puppycow What, prayers don't work against viruses? Maybe they didn't pray hard enough or with the right rituals or to the right deity? Jesus, things must be pretty bad if he's changed his mind. I'd say the SA variant has arrived there, because the death of three Members of Parliament didn't move him about 9 months ago.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

26th February 2021, 05:15 PM	#1055
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,132	In the USA Covid-19 cases declined nicely from Jan until about a week ago. People were starting to shout "Herd Immunity" in a redux of similar refrains from last summer. Then they stabilized and have even gone up slightly. Same with deaths. Interestingly, NY deaths and cases hadn't declined as much as most other states in spite of being a leading state with the most deaths where herd immunity should be a big factor. Recent studies indicate a new variant that has increased in NY from 1% in Dec. to 5% in Jan. to over 20% in Feb. Not good.
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,132	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

26th February 2021, 06:19 PM	#1056
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Originally Posted by marting In the USA Covid-19 cases declined nicely from Jan until about a week ago. People were starting to shout "Herd Immunity" in a redux of similar refrains from last summer. Then they stabilized and have even gone up slightly. Same with deaths. Interestingly, NY deaths and cases hadn't declined as much as most other states in spite of being a leading state with the most deaths where herd immunity should be a big factor. Recent studies indicate a new variant that has increased in NY from 1% in Dec. to 5% in Jan. to over 20% in Feb. Not good. Yeah, I've just started seeing a few worried noises from experts. Hopefully, most vulnerable people will have been vaccinated before it breaks out again.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

26th February 2021, 07:46 PM	#1057
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 38,735	Originally Posted by zooterkin Just caught the end of a TV special on Covid-19. Long covid seems to have some similarities with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (aka ME, or, more disparagingly, yuppie flu). People get exhausted by doing what were previously activities they achieved easily. That looks as though it will give legitimacy to CFS sufferers (many GPs have dismissed it as not a real disease), and extra research may find a cure, or at the least a better understanding of it, if it is similar to long Covid. The suspicion is that it may be something affecting the mitochondria in the cells. The people most often affected by long Covid seem to be those who were fit and not badly affected, and who resumed their normal levels of activity quickly. The recommendation now is to take things easy if you're infected, even if you don't feel too bad. Seems relevant to me. I can't run like I used to, and after having Covid in March 2020, I resumed running as before, and my abilities and energy have just dwindled and dwindled. I've had my blood tested numerous times, and after sorting out iron, D, and zinc deficiencies, I'm still tired, and we can't get my sodium up.
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

26th February 2021, 07:48 PM	#1058
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 38,735	Major rise in public support for COVID vaccine – Oxford study https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-24...e-oxford-study "More than three quarters of people in the UK now say they are ’very likely’ to have the vaccine – up from 50% among the same group of survey respondents five months ago –according to a two-wave Oxford University survey published today [February 24, 2021]." The study: https://rpubs.com/benwansell/729135
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

26th February 2021, 10:04 PM	#1059
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 38,735	Originally Posted by The Atheist I think we might have to re-consider the "Covid came from outer space" idea, because even with the new cluster contained in Auckland (and all restrictions lifted) the health ministry has no idea how the infection started. No intermediate cases have been found and genomic testing shows no relationship to any virus identified here since December, which can't be where it came from. Yet again, we're left with an unknown fomite transmission. Maybe the virus has been in the population, but only giving mild or asymptomatic cases and then these new cases are more serious enough to be noticed. For example, transmitted from family member to family members with tendencies to just be asymptomatic, or healthy community groups such as sporting clubs who have mild or no symptoms. Just wondering.
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

26th February 2021, 11:10 PM	#1060
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Originally Posted by Orphia Nay Maybe the virus has been in the population, but only giving mild or asymptomatic cases and then these new cases are more serious enough to be noticed. For example, transmitted from family member to family members with tendencies to just be asymptomatic, or healthy community groups such as sporting clubs who have mild or no symptoms. Just wondering. Possible, but unlikely. We're finally testing sewage and it's clear at the moment, so if there are other cases, they're one or two. It's all quite bizarre, although the fact that it's stinking hot might be helping.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

Yesterday, 01:26 AM	#1061
Samson Philosopher Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 9,373	Auckland back in lockdown for 7 days. New Zealand for 3.
Samson Philosopher Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 9,373

Yesterday, 01:40 AM	#1062
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,263	Originally Posted by Samson Auckland back in lockdown for 7 days. New Zealand for 3. This is exactly why I said Cinderella was playing roulette with the country. She just hit double zero - two new cases, unknown origin, working at high-transmission sites. If there were a book available I'd be betting a lot more than 7 days. Now, I'm off to the vent thread to say what I really think!
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

Yesterday, 06:03 AM	#1063
Carrot Flower King Muse Join Date: Mar 2020 Location: Northumberland, UK Posts: 725	Originally Posted by Rolfe My GP friend tried to tell that to her daughter, a nurse who caught covid at work. Oh no, she was determined to go right back and do a double shift. She seems to have got away with it. To re-purpose an old Yorkshireman gag: you can always tell a general nurse, but you just can't tell them much... Yours, A retired MH nurse, son of, brother of and cousin of general nurses (our mother was double qualified - general nurse and physio).

Yesterday, 06:17 AM	#1064
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,916	Ooh, don't go near Lindsay and say that. (Did I mention she's a Yorkshire lass, although she works in a hospital in Northumberland.)
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

Yesterday, 09:08 AM	#1065
Planigale Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: 49 North Posts: 4,639	Originally Posted by Orphia Nay Seems relevant to me. I can't run like I used to, and after having Covid in March 2020, I resumed running as before, and my abilities and energy have just dwindled and dwindled. I've had my blood tested numerous times, and after sorting out iron, D, and zinc deficiencies, I'm still tired, and we can't get my sodium up. Usually medication related but worth checking cortisol and thyroid levels.

Yesterday, 09:20 AM	#1066
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 20,791	Originally Posted by Sherkeu Your neanderthal genes can both help...and hurt your odds of surviving Covid: https://www.genomeweb.com/infectious...evere-covid-19 Here's a link to the same story that's not behind a 'register for free' block. https://www.bionews.org.uk/page_154854 I have this variation, so presumably I don't need a vaccination? Perhaps this mutation evolved in Homo neanderthalensis to fight off similar infections way back before the Last Glacial Maximum...but then they met the lethal Homo sapiens... Quote: Two researchers at the Karolinska Institutet in Sweden and the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany conducted the study. They analysed the DNA of those who had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had developed COVID-19. They then compared these sequences to Neanderthal DNA. Those whose sequence matched that of Neanderthals in this genomic region had a reduced risk of requiring COVID-19 hospitalisation. Although Neanderthals became extinct about 40,000 years ago, these variants have increased in frequency over the last 20,000 years, likely due to their protective nature. The protective Neanderthal variants are located in the OAS genes. These encode enzymes that degrade viral RNA and could be crucial in the immune defence against SARS-CoV-2. These findings are in stark contrast with the duo's previous report of Neanderthal variants that triple the risk of developing severe COVID-19 (see BioNews 1066). I wish they would make up their minds. There'll be another scientist along shortly to aver the opposite result.
	__________________ Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!

Yesterday, 09:29 AM	#1067
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 20,791	Originally Posted by Lplus No evidence? The virus was first noted in Wuhan. Wuhan contains a biolab close to the location of the wet market. The biolab has had breaches of containment before. Whilst that may not be forensically perfect, it is more than there is for any other scenario - and even criminals can be convicted on circumstantial evidence. Logical fallacy no. 223: post hoc ergo propter hoc
	__________________ Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!

Yesterday, 09:31 AM	#1068
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 20,791	Originally Posted by Sherkeu Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another? It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not? ...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located. Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit. Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country. You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts! You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you. It might seem suspicious but that is not how it works.
	__________________ Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!

Yesterday, 11:31 AM	#1069
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,843	Originally Posted by Vixen Logical fallacy no. 223: post hoc ergo propter hoc Originally Posted by Vixen It might seem suspicious but that is not how it works. In the COVID origins thread you can debate this. It is more than suspicious.

Today, 02:22 PM	#1070
Oystein Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 16,998	Originally Posted by marting In the USA Covid-19 cases declined nicely from Jan until about a week ago. People were starting to shout "Herd Immunity" in a redux of similar refrains from last summer. Then they stabilized and have even gone up slightly. Same with deaths. Interestingly, NY deaths and cases hadn't declined as much as most other states in spite of being a leading state with the most deaths where herd immunity should be a big factor. Recent studies indicate a new variant that has increased in NY from 1% in Dec. to 5% in Jan. to over 20% in Feb. Not good. Exact same sort of trend we have in Germany, except ours started perhaps a week earlier.
	__________________ Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)

Today, 02:44 PM	#1071
zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 48,389	Originally Posted by Oystein Exact same sort of trend we have in Germany, except ours started perhaps a week earlier. The latest edition of More or Less looks at the falling cases in the USA and Germany, and elsewhere. No consensus on the reasons for it, though there are some possibilities (and, of course, it could be a combination of them). Some of the possible factors are: most of the people who are likely to be exposed have already been exposed (not herd immunity in general, but a subset of it); the change of the seasons (though numbers are dropping in South Africa, too, where it's going into Autumn); vaccinations (though it's really too early for that to be having an effect); changes of behaviour that have reduced risk (not necessarily in response to any official lockdown).
	__________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20

Today, 03:04 PM	#1072
Dr.Sid Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic Posts: 3,169	Czech Republic starts with toughest lockdown yet. No leaving city for 'just a walk', shopping only inside district (which we don't have for years, but it's useful division, it's like 20km across). You can only leave district for work, doctor, and other special cases. Only essential shops open. Anywhere inside FFP2 respirator (cloth mask is not enough anymore), anywhere outside at least cloth mask. Still no limits on work (home office where possible but that's it). About time .. everything around is dropping, yet we're heading toward new records. And our records are world records. Well, to be fair, Slovakia is also trying hard ..

Today, 03:21 PM	#1073
Oystein Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 16,998	Originally Posted by zooterkin The latest edition of More or Less looks at the falling cases in the USA and Germany, and elsewhere. No consensus on the reasons for it, though there are some possibilities (and, of course, it could be a combination of them). Some of the possible factors are: most of the people who are likely to be exposed have already been exposed (not herd immunity in general, but a subset of it); the change of the seasons (though numbers are dropping in South Africa, too, where it's going into Autumn); vaccinations (though it's really too early for that to be having an effect); changes of behaviour that have reduced risk (not necessarily in response to any official lockdown). Per Worldometers, the 7-day average for new daily cases in the USA peaked on January 11th at a bit over 255,000. At the beginning of that 7-day period, total number of detected cases stood at 21.4 million. The most recent 7 days, ending February 27th, saw an average of only 70,000 new cases per day, and that week started with 28.7 million total cases. So there was a 1/3 increase in total cases, but factor 3.5 decrease in new cases. I don't think that any form of herd immunity could have increased so significantly it made a major contribution to that decrease. Similarly, the number of un-vaccinated people did not drop nearly enough to explain the drop in infections. As the podcast points out, even Israel with its much higher percentage of vaccinated people did not experience a great reduction yet because of it. It is quite inescapable then that there are only two major contributions: - Change in season - Change in behavior In Germany at least, it is pretty clear to me that changes in behavior play a larger role: We had our peak just before Christmas, in the same month that lockdown was made more strict than ever before, people grooved into it, and cases started to fall. Rules haven't changed much in most of the country since. Season may not have played much of a reason as February was more wintery than December and January. The question then is: Why did the downward trend stop 2 weeks ago? And I think it's a combination of said winter conditions, people getting tired of the lockdown (mobility data shows upward trends), and more infectious mutants becoming more frequent. Epidemiologists now generally predict that we are on the foot of a third wave, and may be back to numbers like Christmas come Easter, especially as politics is under tremendous pressure to relax.
	__________________ Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)

Today, 03:33 PM	#1074
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 70,252	Originally Posted by Dr.Sid Czech Republic starts with toughest lockdown yet. No leaving city for 'just a walk', shopping only inside district (which we don't have for years, but it's useful division, it's like 20km across). You can only leave district for work, doctor, and other special cases. Only essential shops open. Anywhere inside FFP2 respirator (cloth mask is not enough anymore), anywhere outside at least cloth mask. Still no limits on work (home office where possible but that's it). About time .. everything around is dropping, yet we're heading toward new records. And our records are world records. Well, to be fair, Slovakia is also trying hard .. That's how we controlled the outbreak in Melbourne.
	__________________ Please scream inside your heart.