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View Poll Results: 2020 Election Outcome
Republican Sweep: Trump, Senate, House 1 1.37%
Status Quo: Trump, R Senate, D House 6 8.22%
Congressional Switch: Trump, D Senate, R House 2 2.74%
Congressional Flip: Trump, D Senate, D House 1 1.37%
Democrat Sweep: Biden, D Senate, D House 25 34.25%
Democrat non-sweep: Biden, R Senate, D House 24 32.88%
Alternate non-sweep: Biden, D Senate, R House 0 0%
A right mess: Biden, R Senate, R House 0 0%
Constitutional Crisis: Presidency embroiled in legal nightmare 6 8.22%
Planet X: Tragic Monkey takes all the positions 8 10.96%
Voters: 73. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 20th June 2020, 08:47 AM   #1
Trebuchet
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2020 Election Outcome

What you think WILL happen, not what you want to happen. Consider a tied Senate as controlled by whichever party has the Veep.
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Old 20th June 2020, 09:04 AM   #2
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I find it terribly difficult to make a prediction right now. There are too many variables.
Like trying to predict the outcome of a Football game played in a hurricane on the deck of an aircraft carrier that is under assault by a submarine with half the players unknown.
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Old 20th June 2020, 09:05 AM   #3
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I predict a legal battle like 2000, only worse.

We will be lucky to know the Result before Jan 2021.
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Old 20th June 2020, 09:09 AM   #4
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- Side Prediction. A sizable (almost certainly not enough to actually swing the election but sizable) number of "Faithless Electors."
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Old 20th June 2020, 09:10 AM   #5
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I think it'll be a Republican sweep despite receiving far fewer votes in the Presidential, Senate and House elections.

Gerrymandering will be so bad that in some states the GOP will get 75% of the house seats with 40%of the statewide popular vote.

The voter suppression efforts will be quite spectacular, utterly brazen and yet the GOP will be happy to say that nothing bad happened.
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Old 20th June 2020, 09:11 AM   #6
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I’m expecting a number of deepfakes to be pushed out in October by the GOP that will even out the polls. They’ve been testing the water with this already.
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Old 20th June 2020, 01:16 PM   #7
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If Trump is relected, that wil lbe the last real election we have in this country until we have a Second American Revolution.
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Old 20th June 2020, 01:22 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think it'll be a Republican sweep despite receiving far fewer votes in the Presidential, Senate and House elections.

Gerrymandering will be so bad that in some states the GOP will get 75% of the house seats with 40%of the statewide popular vote.

The voter suppression efforts will be quite spectacular, utterly brazen and yet the GOP will be happy to say that nothing bad happened.
So America is finished as a Democracy? Just say so and be done with it.
BTW, I don't see the GOP taking back the House as a realistic possiblity.
You simply can't gerrymander or voter supress that mjuch.
ANd this post shows you really don't know much about American Politics.
I
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Old 20th June 2020, 01:53 PM   #9
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I plan to bake a chocolate cake that day and eat the whole thing myself that evening, alone and without reading any news whatsoever. I feel this is the best approach.
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Old 20th June 2020, 01:57 PM   #10
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Is that with chocolate icing too? And sprinkles? And a cherry?
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Old 20th June 2020, 02:10 PM   #11
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I chose "Democrat non-sweep".

I can't see Democrats overcoming the R lead in the Senate over one election.
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Old 20th June 2020, 02:15 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
So America is finished as a Democracy? Just say so and be done with it.
BTW, I don't see the GOP taking back the House as a realistic possiblity.
You simply can't gerrymander or voter supress that mjuch.
ANd this post shows you really don't know much about American Politics.
I
Currently in North Carolina the GOP has 9 of 13 house seats on 48%of the popular vote. What I'm suggesting isn't much of a stretch from that.
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Old 20th June 2020, 02:15 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I plan to bake a chocolate cake that day and eat the whole thing myself that evening, alone and without reading any news whatsoever. I feel this is the best approach.
Cake, smake.....it's going to be at least a two bottles of wine day for me.

It's going to be a nail biter no doubt. Thankfully, most of the swing states are in the eastern/mid part of the country so being on the West Coast will make it not quite such a long day for me.
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Old 20th June 2020, 02:47 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Currently in North Carolina the GOP has 9 of 13 house seats on 48%of the popular vote. What I'm suggesting isn't much of a stretch from that.
Then how the hell did the Dems win back the House in 2020?
I also think pointing at one state as an example is not very valid, but you have shown you really don't understand American politics so much.
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Old 20th June 2020, 03:10 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Quote:
Currently in North Carolina the GOP has 9 of 13 house seats on 48%of the popular vote. What I'm suggesting isn't much of a stretch from that.
Then how the hell did the Dems win back the House in 2020?
Because not every state is gerrymandered.

Some states leave district boundaries up to non-partisan organizations. Other states still have politicians decide their boundaries, but they were controlled by either democrats, or less-scummy republicans during the last redistricting.

Yes, the Democrats won the house. If it wasn't for gerrymandering, they may have even had a bigger victory.
Quote:
I also think pointing at one state as an example is not very valid, but you have shown you really don't understand American politics so much.
I think its valid as an illustration about just how dirty the republicans can get when it comes to politics.

Plus, it does have SOME effect... Granted, it only affects the house, but having more Democrats is always better (even if they already have a majority).
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Old 20th June 2020, 03:16 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If Trump is relected, that wil lbe the last real election we have in this country until we have a Second American Revolution.
Like Belz said you could just make "I don't see a peaceful resolution to this" your signature and save time.
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Old 20th June 2020, 04:10 PM   #17
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I don't see an electoral map for Trump right now. Biden is ahead, outside the margin of error in Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Biden is the favored in North Carolina. With Biden ahead in those states, there's no map for Trump.

The Senate is harder. Colorado is back in play. The map I'm seeing is a 50/50 split. I'm hopeful but not optimistic about Kentucky and I don't see Alabama staying blue. That said, first time black voters might be key this year. Newly registered black voters could make all the difference in Georgia, Alabama and Kentucky.

I'm really interested in the Iowa race. That state looks ripe for a flip right now.

The House will stay blue, the Senate will either be 50/50 of 51/50 in favor of blue and a blue Whitehouse.
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Old 20th June 2020, 05:19 PM   #18
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I'm at about 60% Democrat non-sweep, with Democrat Sweep and Constitutional crisis at 20% each.
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Old 20th June 2020, 06:09 PM   #19
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I said Dem sweep, though I think the Senate is a tossup. Polls are certainly looking promising, and there are a lot of Republican Senate seats contested this time. Of course, it could swing back by November, especially if racial protests get more violent, or Biden shows more signs of bad health or dementia.. I think Democratic voters will turn out this time, unlike 2016. I really think Trump's daily Covid-19 briefings made it painfully obvious to all but the most die-hard Trumpists just how completely unfit for the job Trump is, and the racial unreast following the George Floyd murder sealed the deal. OTOH, I can see some signs of the whole protest movement surrounding the police and racial problems moving into crazy-town, which has some potential of creating a backlash. I'm cautiously optimistic, and think there is a good chance of a sweep, and a much better chance of at least getting Trump out. I am hoping that he loses by a decisive enough margin to take the wind out of the sails of any notion of him trying to ignore the results of the electoin. Watch out for 2022 midterms though. Between the virus and Trump, we're going to be in for some rough times, and the right wing propaganda machine will be hard at work trying to blame Biden and the Dems for all of it, as they did for the recession in 2010.

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Old 20th June 2020, 06:32 PM   #20
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I don't see a path to victory for Trump, but then again I didn't see one last time, so what the hell do I know?
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Old 20th June 2020, 07:12 PM   #21
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I looked at the empty overflow crowd area and the empty seats in Tulsa and I felt joy. How full Trump rallies are doesn't really matter but how empty they are does. If he can't fill the Tulsa B team hockey arena in Oklahoma, he's got problems.
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Old 20th June 2020, 07:13 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I looked at the empty overflow crowd area and the empty seats in Tulsa and I felt joy. How full Trump rallies are doesn't really matter but how empty they are does. If he can't fill the Tulsa B team hockey arena in Oklahoma, he's got problems.
That's just what fake news wants you to think!
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Old 20th June 2020, 07:23 PM   #23
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- The virus will not go away.
- Trump is blamed.
- Trump loses touch with reality.
- Trump losses in a landslide.
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Old 20th June 2020, 07:46 PM   #24
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The virus will not go away.
Trump lies.
Morons believe him.
Republicans cheat
Trump wins.
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Old 20th June 2020, 08:02 PM   #25
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Currently, it looks like the Democrats sweep into power, but there's still a lot of time between now and election day. Eons, actually. I expect races in the Senate and Presidency to tighten (as they usually do).
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Old 20th June 2020, 10:42 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Then how the hell did the Dems win back the House in 2020?
I also think pointing at one state as an example is not very valid, but you have shown you really don't understand American politics so much.
It may be the worst example, but it's not the only one. For example, in Kentucky, the Democrats got close to 40% of the vote in house elections but only 1 of 6 seats.
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Old 21st June 2020, 05:06 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Then how the hell did the Dems win back the House in 2020?
In a word, women. The political leanings, particularly of women in the gerrymandered, suburban districts changed. Suburban women, normally pro business and pro Republican saw a sexist president, staggering student loans and future where their kids won't be able to do as well as they did.

Republicans gerrymandered the districts to in their favor and then failed to respond to the issues that made the people in those districts favor them.
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Old 27th June 2020, 12:18 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I don't see a path to victory for Trump, but then again I didn't see one last time,
so what the hell do I know?
Well…

In the 2016 election, things got weird between Hillary Clinton and Donald
Trump. About three and half million Republican voters left the party and
voted Libertarian.

If Trump gets his act together and appears more presidential than the
Libertarian candidate this time, then those voters will come back and vote
Republican and match the increase in the number of new Democratic Party
voters, and he can scrape by in the Electoral College.

How hard can it be?

I think the last Libertarian candidate I saw had a boot on his head.

Did they have their convention yet?


I think the election results will look something like this:

Candidate Democrats Republicans Independents Candidate Votes
Biden 43.7 4.7 17.6 66.0
Trump 4.5 41.0 19.0 64.5
Others 2.5 3.0 8.0 13.5
Party Voters 50.2 48.7 44.6 144.0


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Old 27th June 2020, 01:19 PM   #29
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Folks this is ridiculous. We are in Timewarp 2020, imagine this poll would have been started the period in the past it is away from the actual election.

So I'm not saying it will be aliens, but...
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Old 27th June 2020, 02:07 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The virus will not go away.
Trump lies.
Morons believe him.
Republicans cheat
Trump wins.
The virus will not go away.
Trump lies.
Morons believe him.
Trump postpones elections 'until the virus goes away'.
Civil war.
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Old 27th June 2020, 02:46 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If Trump is relected, that wil lbe the last real election we have in this country until we have a Second American Revolution.
And I'm sure most people will think you are being melodramatic, but with every passing day its harder to see how the USA can repair the damage done the last four years. What was supposed to be a system of check and balances has been exposed as little more than a gentlemen's agreement and utterly worthless if one side refuses to behave like gentlemen.
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Old 27th June 2020, 05:05 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Trump postpones elections 'until the virus goes away'.
Civil war.
It must be scary to live with this much paranoia.
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Old 27th June 2020, 05:59 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
The virus will not go away.
Trump lies.
Morons believe him.
Trump postpones elections 'until the virus goes away'.
Civil war.
Is that you, Dudalb?

Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
It must be scary to live with this much paranoia.
Jared already said the elections "probably" won't be postponed. They are thinking about.
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Old 27th June 2020, 06:12 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The voter suppression efforts will be quite spectacular, utterly brazen and yet the GOP will be happy to say that nothing bad happened.
Ah, this part I disagree with.

I'm sure the GOP will have lots to say about how the real vote for them was much higher, that instead of a 4% margin it was a 90% Republican landslide, which we would have seen but for all the skulduggery and shenanigans.
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Old 27th June 2020, 06:34 PM   #35
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I voted for Tragic Monkey.

James Carrville on MSNBC said that he thinks there is more of chance that Trump doesn't run then of him being reelected.
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Old 27th June 2020, 06:52 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I voted for Tragic Monkey.

James Carrville on MSNBC said that he thinks there is more of chance that Trump doesn't run then of him being legitimately reelected.
Fixed that for you. The legitimacy of the coming election is seriously in doubt. A great many lawsuits will be filed to overturn results that don't favor Trump.
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Old 27th June 2020, 07:18 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Fixed that for you. The legitimacy of the coming election is seriously in doubt. A great many lawsuits will be filed to overturn results that don't favor Trump.
We'll see. You need support to steal an election and you need it in each individual state.

Republicans are starting to hate him. As Coronavirus cases skyrocket in red states and Trump keeps acting in denial, his polling numbers are going to keep sinking.

I suspect that Trump and the Republicans can do enough voter suppression to win Georgia and maybe Florida and Texas, but Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina Arizona, Pennsylvania are all much tougher to steal. Especially when Trump is double digits behind in each.
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Old 27th June 2020, 07:33 PM   #38
Orphia Nay
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The red/blue outrage will reach COVID-19 ICU fever pitch.

New Constitutional Amendments will be brought forward by the Democrats, none will address the red/blue divide/bias, all will be mocked by the Republicans, over-reacted to by (social)/media, opinion will take precedence.

I voted Constitutional Crisis.
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Old 27th June 2020, 08:29 PM   #39
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Joe Biden will sweep the presidential election, the Senate will end up about 50-50 Democrats and Republicans.

Donald Trump will graciously accept defeat and announce that he will retire from public life to work on his long-postponed project of writing the definitive biography of the philosopher Spinoza.
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Old 27th June 2020, 08:44 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Jared already said the elections "probably" won't be postponed. They are thinking about.

Yeah, this.


There have always been rumblings about how the current president will "cancel the elections" or "declare himself President for Life", but those rumblings were always from people on the fringe, who subscribed to all the usual CTs.

But now, we see this coming from people who are actually close to the president, and sometimes from Trump himself. Lots of people brush it off as "jokes", but we never even saw "jokes" about this from previous Presidents.

Now, I don't actually think Trump et al. will actually try to pull this off, but I also don't think that worrying that they will try to pull it off is as "paranoid" as such beliefs were under previous Presidents. There's a legitimate reason to worry about this; it's not just random unsupported paranoia.
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