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Tags Coronavirus , prediction thread , predictions

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Old 24th March 2020, 08:22 AM   #41
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Oh, here's a couple of thoughts - we might see the end of cinemas, and at least some forms of printed media.

Some film studios are already starting to release their films online rather than at the cinema. If they find that that's a viable model, then they may not go back to the old model. And cinemas operate on a razor's edge of profit as it is, so this crisis may see many of them close. If that were to happen, that would exacerbate studios not returning to the cinemas, as fewer cinemas means fewer profits.

WRT print media comic manufacturers, at least, are ceasing production of physical copies and comic shops are either closed or are closing. Most comic shops are independent and likely cannot survive an extended closure. At the same time, if the comic companies learn that they can make just as much (or more) profit by distributing only digital copies, then they're unlikely to return to the old model. Again, this is especially true if the places where they can sell physical copies are more limited, and I imagine that some people who previously wouldn't have considered digital copies might take to them and not want to go back to physical ones. Perhaps a limited run only for collectors, which can be more expensive.

I've not heard anything yet about how papers or magazines are handling this, but physical sales have been declining for years and that will be even more true now. Again, if they find that they can make the same or more profit by having people subscribe to an app, or whatever, then they may abandon print all together.

To be clear, I don't think these things will disappear 100%, but I do think it's possible they may become far less prevalent.
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Old 24th March 2020, 08:33 AM   #42
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The future of "The Movie Theater" is one of those things that's been on my mind the last few years.

The whole concept is obviously on the downside. In these days of 55 inch 4k TVs being available for under 500 bucks the appeal of spending close to 100 bucks for a family of 4 to go movie theater and get stuck behind someone texting their entire time has certainly lost a lot of its appeal.

I don't think the "Go the the movies" thing will ever totally go away, but I can imagine a not to distant future where stand alone dedicated movie theaters were every major movie gets a run are a thing of the past and "Going to the movies" is reserved for only big event films in a more of a hybrid "Theater / dinner party" atmosphere.
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Old 24th March 2020, 09:03 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I don't think the "Go the the movies" thing will ever totally go away, but I can imagine a not to distant future where stand alone dedicated movie theaters were every major movie gets a run are a thing of the past and "Going to the movies" is reserved for only big event films in a more of a hybrid "Theater / dinner party" atmosphere.
Maybe it will persist because of dates. A cinema is a neutral venue where parties can meet without flatmates or housemates (or children) around.
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Old 24th March 2020, 09:27 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Oh, here's a couple of thoughts - we might see the end of cinemas, and at least some forms of printed media.

Some film studios are already starting to release their films online rather than at the cinema. If they find that that's a viable model, then they may not go back to the old model. And cinemas operate on a razor's edge of profit as it is, so this crisis may see many of them close. If that were to happen, that would exacerbate studios not returning to the cinemas, as fewer cinemas means fewer profits.

WRT print media comic manufacturers, at least, are ceasing production of physical copies and comic shops are either closed or are closing. Most comic shops are independent and likely cannot survive an extended closure. At the same time, if the comic companies learn that they can make just as much (or more) profit by distributing only digital copies, then they're unlikely to return to the old model. Again, this is especially true if the places where they can sell physical copies are more limited, and I imagine that some people who previously wouldn't have considered digital copies might take to them and not want to go back to physical ones. Perhaps a limited run only for collectors, which can be more expensive.

I've not heard anything yet about how papers or magazines are handling this, but physical sales have been declining for years and that will be even more true now. Again, if they find that they can make the same or more profit by having people subscribe to an app, or whatever, then they may abandon print all together.

To be clear, I don't think these things will disappear 100%, but I do think it's possible they may become far less prevalent.
Hmmm, I didn't think about the comic shops -- haven't been to one in a while. If there is one major reservoir for passing on viruses, that's it. (Assuming the virus survives for some time on glossy paper.) Considering the amount of people that will pick up and page through the same issue, the chances are very high of contagion.

I was very happy to find the Comixology subscription for my Kindle Fire 10. A few years ago when I got my first Kindle I tried reading a few comics but the framing was poor and I wasn't able to select or enlarge panels. Now all that is configured much better and is a very pleasurable experience. Of course, I only get to read the books provided by the service (of which there are many I enjoy) for a flat monthly subscription rate. Individual issues are still far too costly without getting the actual print book.
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Old 24th March 2020, 10:38 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Maybe it will persist because of dates. A cinema is a neutral venue where parties can meet without flatmates or housemates (or children) around.
... in the dark.


So in a decade or so we're all going to be watching mostly Chinese movies on mostly Chinese TVs, listening mostly to Chinese pop and eating mostly ...
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Old 24th March 2020, 10:46 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
Hmmm, I didn't think about the comic shops -- haven't been to one in a while. If there is one major reservoir for passing on viruses, that's it. (Assuming the virus survives for some time on glossy paper.) Considering the amount of people that will pick up and page through the same issue, the chances are very high of contagion.
The comic industry is a whole mess of baggage to untangle and dedicated comic book shops are one of the key reasons print comics struggle to sell to anyone who hasn't already been reading them their entire life.
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Old 24th March 2020, 11:03 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
It's definitely moving a little towards that now, and it's not really a new idea, but one that's coming back around. It used to be very common to do a big weekly shop, and to have a big supply of things just sitting around in your cupboards (or larders, if you're posh). These days it's more common to just go out and buy what you need when you need it, but the current advice is to go shopping once a week and buy what you need for the entire week.

It's not quite what you're talking about, but it's not a million miles away, either.
When someone told my brother that he needed to make sure they had 2 months of food at home his response was "Easy, but what should we do with the rest?" His wife is notorious for having at least two months of food, if not more, just because she likes shopping for food and cooking form scratch.

Our pantry is tiny, so we have much less. But we are building a house that will have much more capability for being prepared.

It is something I grew up with because we lived in a hurricane prone area. Everyone had enough non-perishable supplies for at least two weeks just as basic home keeping. And every freezer had a substantial amount of bottled water in it to keep the rest of the stuff cold when the power went out, and every house had at least one bathroom with a bathtub so you could fill the tub with enough water to let you flush the toilet for at least a week. And everyone had a grill and most had a smoker of some sort, so when the power went out the good meats came out of the freezer first. Nothing like venison backstrap wrapped in bacon to make you forget that it is 80 degrees at 10pm and you won't be getting a shower for a few days. Ooh, the Davis's brought over quail!

That is one downside to this as compared to other similar events. No way to get together with the neighbors and share a drink.
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Old 24th March 2020, 11:57 AM   #48
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That's another thing that's slowly been going away for a while that's likely to go away quicker because of this - physical money. In the UK and Ireland, at least, people are being encouraged to use their cards, and contactless payment limits are being raised substantially.

Since there are already shops that no longer accept physical cash, I see this accelerating the trend.
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Old 24th March 2020, 11:58 AM   #49
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I would like to see more countries at least make a move to polymer bills, which are easier to clean and decontaminate.

Oh and get rid of the penny. Not because of any of this but because it's 2020 and it's embarrassing that we still have them.
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Old 24th March 2020, 01:38 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
That's another thing that's slowly been going away for a while that's likely to go away quicker because of this - physical money. In the UK and Ireland, at least, people are being encouraged to use their cards, and contactless payment limits are being raised substantially.
I really, really doubt this. The level of cash I've seen used hasn't altered at all.
And the contactless limit is still €30/Stg£30 until April at least (when it increases to €50/Stg£45). I do not see it going higher than that at all.
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Old 24th March 2020, 01:40 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I would like to see more countries at least make a move to polymer bills, which are easier to clean and decontaminate.

Oh and get rid of the penny. Not because of any of this but because it's 2020 and it's embarrassing that we still have them.
Agreed. The Eurozone is heading that way, and effectively demonitising the 1 and 2 cent coins.

Personally I'd scrap the lot and institute a 1/3/10/30/100 denomination system.
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Old 24th March 2020, 01:48 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
I really, really doubt this. The level of cash I've seen used hasn't altered at all.
And the contactless limit is still €30/Stg£30 until April at least (when it increases to €50/Stg£45). I do not see it going higher than that at all.
People still use cash? Why?
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Old 24th March 2020, 02:10 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
People still use cash? Why?
Easy to budget, you stop spending when the money runs out ?

That's the way Mrs Don any I have rolled for nearly 30 years.
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Old 24th March 2020, 06:15 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
People still use cash? Why?
When you're really broke a problem can be that if you're paid into your bank account the bank takes the money in charges/against standing orders etc before you can take it out. If the bank and other creditors paid through it aren't your biggest concern then having the cash lets you make your own choices. Pls avoiding tax, small or private sellers, the surety of knowing that something hasn't come out of your account you weren't planning for and your card won't get rejected (especially awkward if it's something like fuel that you can't put back).
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Old 24th March 2020, 06:34 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
When you're really broke a problem can be that if you're paid into your bank account the bank takes the money in charges/against standing orders etc before you can take it out. If the bank and other creditors paid through it aren't your biggest concern then having the cash lets you make your own choices. Pls avoiding tax, small or private sellers, the surety of knowing that something hasn't come out of your account you weren't planning for and your card won't get rejected (especially awkward if it's something like fuel that you can't put back).
This. A 20 dollar bill isn't going to disappear the day before payday when you need to buy gas or pick up a prescription because you forget about something coming out.

The last 20 in your bank account can.

Even now when I'm in pretty decent financial shape every payday I take enough cash out to buy me gas to get to work until my next paycheck, I habit I got into during my rough times.
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Old 24th March 2020, 08:30 PM   #56
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I wonder about permanent changes we'll be able to see, that the previous version will look very odd or archaic in a few years. Like when you see a movie where people are smoking on an airplane, or using a land-line phone. I'm hoping the handshake goes that way.
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Old 24th March 2020, 09:24 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
I really, really doubt this. The level of cash I've seen used hasn't altered at all.
And the contactless limit is still €30/Stg£30 until April at least (when it increases to €50/Stg£45). I do not see it going higher than that at all.
I've seen places requesting card-only. I've been completely cashless since the beginning of the year. It kind of further disadvantages the already-disadvantaged, though.
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Old 24th March 2020, 11:55 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
I'm hoping the handshake goes that way.
Yep, I'd vote for that.

One other thing occurred to me today as I noticed the astonishing sight of flour sold out. Given how little home cooking people do, I wondered if maybe they'd get into the habit of doing so and not eat McDonalds 200 times a year.
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Old 25th March 2020, 12:12 AM   #59
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That's another thought I had - it won't go away because you can't cure stupid, but I'll be prepared to bet that the anti-vaxxer movement takes a hit from this after people can see first-hand what it is that vaccines actually do and what a lack of one can do to their loved ones.
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Old 25th March 2020, 12:22 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I've seen places requesting card-only. I've been completely cashless since the beginning of the year. It kind of further disadvantages the already-disadvantaged, though.
Yes, this is exactly it. Society is already moving away from cash, and has been for some time. As I say, there are already shops that don't accept cash any more, cash machines are slowly but surely disappearing, 10% of people already no longer use cash, and a study has shown that big retailers could save £6m a month by eliminating cash. This current crisis is seeing shops and the government discourage the use of cash and encourage the use of contactless (because cash is a good transmission vector and contactless, as the name implies, doesn't require physical contact). That trend may continue - especially if experts are right and we're going to learn to manage coronavirus like we do the flu, rather than eliminate it - and it may accelerate. Which isn't to say that we're going to see it disappear entirely - at least not for several years to come - but I think the rate at which it's being phased out will speed up.

As you say, this will be a bad thing for some of the more vulnerable, but since when has society ever been set up for the benefit of the more vulnerable? It's certainly not like governments are likely to institute laws requiring shops to take cash.
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Old 25th March 2020, 12:59 AM   #61
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Maybe large denomination notes such as the Australian $100 note will be abolished. I rarely see them. After all any transaction over $10 I offer my credit card.

One thing that may need to change is the credit card fees. They need to be a fixed % of the value of the transactions + a fixed $ per month and that is it. Then when I buy something for 50 cents the shop will take my credit card no problems. This will also mean that children will have credit cards.
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Old 25th March 2020, 01:14 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
That's another thought I had - it won't go away because you can't cure stupid, but I'll be prepared to bet that the anti-vaxxer movement takes a hit from this after people can see first-hand what it is that vaccines actually do and what a lack of one can do to their loved ones.
Good point - even the dumbest of them will see that.

Provided we get a vaccine in time to matter.
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Old 25th March 2020, 01:19 AM   #63
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Hopefully we'll all be a little bit better prepared for the next pandemic.

For example, the government should have a larger stockpile of basic medical supplies like PPE (masks and whatnot). And people should be better prepared to work from home.

Of course, that sort of thing won't last very long, because memories fade and people get complacent again.
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Old 25th March 2020, 01:53 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Of course, that sort of thing won't last very long, because memories fade and people get complacent again.
That was my first comment as well, but I'm wondering if teleworking might get a long-term boost.

If people have been performing their work at home, they might question why they need to commute for hours a day.

That would be a huge improvement for the planet.
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Old 25th March 2020, 01:57 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
This will also mean that children will have credit cards.
Debit cards seems more likely. Or things like Apple Pay, depending on the age of the kid. Create an account for each of your kids and set up a standing order to pay in a certain amount each day, or transfer some if they need money for something specific.

I could see something like that being workable for most people.
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Old 25th March 2020, 03:09 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I've seen places requesting card-only. I've been completely cashless since the beginning of the year. It kind of further disadvantages the already-disadvantaged, though.
We've been cashless for the last few years. The only reason I still have cash money in the house is because of larp events that are too small to have the tools for debit card payment (in the case of drinks and such). That and the fact a lot of camperplaces in Europe have to be paid with coins (Germany, I'm looking at you!) .

But even this will change in the future, I think.
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Old 25th March 2020, 03:28 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Some film studios are already starting to release their films online rather than at the cinema. If they find that that's a viable model, then they may not go back to the old model. And cinemas operate on a razor's edge of profit as it is, so this crisis may see many of them close. If that were to happen, that would exacerbate studios not returning to the cinemas, as fewer cinemas means fewer profits..

The Copenhagen Documentary Film Festival this week, CPH : DOX was about to get cancelled but went online instead.
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Old 25th March 2020, 04:07 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yep, I'd vote for that.

One other thing occurred to me today as I noticed the astonishing sight of flour sold out. Given how little home cooking people do, I wondered if maybe they'd get into the habit of doing so and not eat McDonalds 200 times a year.
That's actually hit us, we hadn't bought a loaf of bread in about two years (my wife has decided she's gluten intolerent when it's shop bought but fine when it's home made or something). So our breadmaker is a busy piece of kit. We normally bulk buy flour once or twice a month and unfortunately the panic buy hit just before we were due to stock up. I suspect many of those panic bought bags of flour will end up in the bin unused in a year or so's time
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Old 25th March 2020, 04:50 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Good point - even the dumbest of them will see that.

Provided we get a vaccine in time to matter.
The anti-vaxxers will not stop as it is a quasi religion.

"The vaccine worked wonderfully for the Covid-19, but at the same time it still causes autism in children."
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Old 25th March 2020, 04:52 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
This will also mean that children will have credit cards.
Criminals are going to love that.
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Old 25th March 2020, 05:10 AM   #71
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Peer-review and big scientific journals will become less important.
Health-tracking will become more important as privacy around health data will be weakened.
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Old 25th March 2020, 05:26 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Criminals are going to love that.
As I said above, debit cards are a lot more likely than credit cards. As it is, under 18s cannot have credit cards but can have debit cards. I see no reason for this to be changed if cash were to be eliminated.
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Old 25th March 2020, 05:30 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Peer-review and big scientific journals will become less important.
What makes you say that?

Quote:
Health-tracking will become more important as privacy around health data will be weakened.
The groundwork has certainly been set. Loads of people (myself included) already wear devices that records some of their vitals. I know Apple are reportedly good with people's data, but I'd be surprised if google, Microsoft, etc. were. And we live in a world where expectations of privacy are much reduced already, and where many, if not most, people don't care about their data being shared.

It doesn't seem unreasonable that people may become comfortable with sharing even more of their data, although if the methods of collecting it are more invasive than just wearing a watch it'll certainly take some adjustment.
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Old 25th March 2020, 05:32 AM   #74
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Fingers crossed for some resurgent leftism in the US. Class consciousness on the rise as the ghouls in power openly suggesting sacrificing lives to protect wealth.
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Old 25th March 2020, 05:35 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
As I said above, debit cards are a lot more likely than credit cards. As it is, under 18s cannot have credit cards but can have debit cards. I see no reason for this to be changed if cash were to be eliminated.
Criminals are going to love it when all children are carrying debit cards.
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Old 25th March 2020, 05:36 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
What makes you say that?

It's too slow.
We will see more open-access, reviewed by readers articles published.
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Old 25th March 2020, 05:45 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
It's too slow.
We will see more open-access, reviewed by readers articles published.
Yeah, perhaps. More likely for things that are urgent, such as currently. But whether it'll become a common thing will, I think, depend on whether reader review proves to be as effective as peer review.
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Old 25th March 2020, 05:57 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Criminals are going to love it when all children are carrying debit cards.
Sure they will. Just as they love it when they all carry cash.

ETA: Although, to be fair, criminals love it much more when children carry cash, as it is easier to buy drugs with cash.
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Old 25th March 2020, 06:04 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
There might be a backlash against the various populist movements.
Would be nice, but I don't think there will be. If anything, people's fears for everything "foreign" will increase instead of decrease, and closed borders may become normal again. I think this may be the end of globalisation and a return to isolationism.
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Old 25th March 2020, 06:19 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Sure they will. Just as they love it when they all carry cash.

ETA: Although, to be fair, criminals love it much more when children carry cash, as it is easier to buy drugs with cash.
You are not thinking.

When criminals rob children they get all the cash in the pocket. But when they rob the child of a debit card they get all the cash in the account. This is because ATMs give out cash and the debit card will be used at an ATM by the criminal.

The criminal robs the child of two things. The debit card and the PIN. The reason that they will love it is because it's easier and safer to rob children rather than adults or even teenagers.
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