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Old 11th February 2017, 05:11 AM   #121
3point14
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I completely agree.

What I am not certain about is what the best option is having left the EU. I think and continue to think the UK should be part of the EU. But if we have to leave perhaps not being part of the EFTA is the right course. Being part of the EFTA offers all the disadvantages of being in the EU but none of the advantages. It seems definitely worse than being in the EU. Is not being part of the EFTA better than being in the EFTA? Is not being part of the customs union better than being part of the customs union?

The problem is this will not be clear until detailed negotiations are done, and the options are clearer.

Personally I would like a redo referendum once the shape of Brexit was much clearer, but that is because I am a sore loser and want a second bite at the poisoned apple because I think the pro Brexit voters were clearly mad, stupid or both.

Would the EU offer a compromise to keep the UK in the EU? I do not think so. I suspect if the EU came back with 'perhaps we could consider a limited suspension of freedom of movement for the UK' then this might be in Scottish speak a significant change to justify a repeat referendum. But this has not nor do I think it will happen. The principle of freedom of movement for the EU is more important than unity.

The reality is that there will be no second EU referendum whatever I may wish for.

The best option is to not leave the EU. There's no need or necessity for the UK to leave the EU. We had a non-binding referendum with unchecked lies being thrown around by the lying, unprincipled commanders of the leave campaign. Now that this has become abundantly clear, now the cost of leaving the EU has become crystallised it is extremely obvious that leaving is to the detriment of almost everyone in the country.

Now that this is clear, it is obvious to anyone with half a brain who's looked at the lies told by the leave campaign that leaving is a total disaster.


We have a parliament full of politicians with no backbone and no principle most of the the conservative members of which were bang alongside remaining in the EU until June and now they think it's a cracking idea because their concern for the safety of their parties nomination for their seat outweighs their concern for the economic and political future of the country.

As, just one MP said, it's suicide.
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

We are lions, not tigers.
Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:12 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
What makes you think that the EU do nothing?
I never said they did nothing - I said they did nothing useful. Obviously they do do some things - such as awarding themselves generous pension entitlements that are paid for by European taxpayers.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:13 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I never said they did nothing - I said they did nothing useful. Obviously they do do some things - such as awarding themselves generous pension entitlements that are paid for by European taxpayers.
What makes you think they do nothing useful?

Has the enormous list of things that the UK will now need to pay for itself not swayed you?
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

We are lions, not tigers.
Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:14 AM   #124
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We voted to leave. We didn't vote to leave contingent on getting a good deal, or indeed any kind of deal. Remain enthusiasts who are bad losers need to remember that simple fact.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:16 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Who would sign a trade deal with Britain if we just walked away from an obligation?
How much trade would we have with Europe?
It would wreck any standing we had in the world as a reliable partner.

You say in your example on Scotlands share of debt

That would apply equally to Britain running from obligations to the EU.
Well because the Rest of the UK would have a huge amount of debt and the last thing anyone would want to do is upset the international financial markets by taking any action to endanger the security of that debt. That includes large amounts of dubious money by even more dubious oligarchs who really would not like anything to upset their running away fund. The financial reality is the UK could walk away and it would leave the EU feeling grumpy but no one would do much about it. Can you see the US under Trump coming down on the EU side? China, Japan? So the dispute will be EU vs UK. A clean break to WTO status will leave the EU with little that they can do.

Having lots of debt actually is a powerful position.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:18 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
What makes you think they do nothing useful?

Has the enormous list of things that the UK will now need to pay for itself not swayed you?
No - for the simple fact that we won't pay for most of them. The EU is flying a kite and trying to get us to agree to pay for the moon. Obviously we'll pay what's really owed - and the EU can pay us what they owe us too. After we leave we won't be making any further payments.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:21 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
We voted to leave. We didn't vote to leave contingent on getting a good deal, or indeed any kind of deal. Remain enthusiasts who are bad losers need to remember that simple fact.
'We' voted to leave off the back of a campaign run on lies.

You might think it's a good idea to plunge headlong into global oblivion off the back of a blatantly manipulated, poorly informed, non binding, poor turnout public vote.

I think that shows an alarming lack of foresight and a fundamental deficiency in understanding how global and national politics and finance work. Which, to be fair, is not a conclusion I find myself surprised to arrive at.
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

We are lions, not tigers.
Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:28 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
We voted to leave. We didn't vote to leave contingent on getting a good deal, or indeed any kind of deal. Remain enthusiasts who are bad losers need to remember that simple fact.
I agree with this.

Whilst I did not vote for Brexit. Those that I know that did so more on a point of principle. They would accept a cost to leaving. They knew that the shape of Brexit was uncertain.

I completely accept I am a bad loser on this (in general I am a bad loser on Monopoly and Scrabble too but I do better with Epidemic). Interestingly I was not a bad loser on Scottish indolence* because I was much more ambivalent about it, perhaps unlike 'ethnic' Scots I did not have emotional investment in being "Scottish'.

*Whoops spell check error Scottish 'indolence' was supposed to read Scottish 'independence' my computer has obviously decided to adopt a pro unionist stance! I assume the computer will be cheering for France!
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:29 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
poor turnout
No. Higher turnout than in any UK General election since 1992. 72.2%
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:34 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I agree with this.

Whilst I did not vote for Brexit. Those that I know that did so more on a point of principle. They would accept a cost to leaving. They knew that the shape of Brexit was uncertain.
They were told, in no uncertain terms that the UK would have more money after leaving the EU - it was a fundamental point of the leave campaign. It was a lie. Poorly informed people were grossly manipulated to vote for a lie. Nobody on the leave side ever said 'we might all be poorer after this - it was simply not part of the discussion.



Quote:
I completely accept I am a bad loser on this (in general I am a bad loser on Monopoly and Scrabble too but I do better with Epidemic). Interestingly I was not a bad loser on Scottish indolence* because I was much more ambivalent about it, perhaps unlike 'ethnic' Scots I did not have emotional investment in being "Scottish'.

*Whoops spell check error Scottish 'indolence' was supposed to read Scottish 'independence' my computer has obviously decided to adopt a pro unionist stance! I assume the computer will be cheering for France!

If someone can find me the 'we will be poorer but happier' memo from the leave campaign, I'll reconsider, but at the moment it is grossly obvious we are headed for international oblivion on the back of lies.
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

We are lions, not tigers.
Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:35 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. Higher turnout than in any UK General election since 1992. 72.2%

If that's all you have then my worldview remains unrocked.
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

We are lions, not tigers.
Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:40 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
They were told, in no uncertain terms that the UK would have more money after leaving the EU.
I think you're overstating this, but in any case it might yet prove to be true, your opinion notwithstanding.

I've always thought that the UK will be worse off during and immediately following Brexit but that there will probably be long term benefits. Most leave campaigners said the same thing and this was even the forecast by the Bank of England - despite their biased pro-remain position.
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Old 11th February 2017, 06:24 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
They were told, in no uncertain terms that the UK would have more money after leaving the EU - it was a fundamental point of the leave campaign. It was a lie. Poorly informed people were grossly manipulated to vote for a lie. Nobody on the leave side ever said 'we might all be poorer after this - it was simply not part of the discussion.






If someone can find me the 'we will be poorer but happier' memo from the leave campaign, I'll reconsider, but at the moment it is grossly obvious we are headed for international oblivion on the back of lies.
Here are a couple of articles that include the concept of a short term cost to Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...d-to-jump-off/
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/...ong-term-gain/
The second includes an opinion poll suggesting that the concept of short term cost vs long term gain was widely appreciated.
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Old 11th February 2017, 06:26 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Here are a couple of articles that include the concept of a short term cost to Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...d-to-jump-off/
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/...ong-term-gain/
The second includes an opinion poll suggesting that the concept of short term cost vs long term gain was widely appreciated.

Thank you. Neither of those are from the leave side of things and therefore would be dismissed by the leaders of the leave campaign as nothing more than the opinion of experts.

Again, no-one on the leave side of things said, as far as I'm aware, "It'll get much worse before it gets better."
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

We are lions, not tigers.
Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 11th February 2017, 06:31 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Thank you. Neither of those are from the leave side of things and therefore would be dismissed by the leaders of the leave campaign as nothing more than the opinion of experts.

Again, no-one on the leave side of things said, as far as I'm aware, "It'll get much worse before it gets better."
One was from the Daily Telegraph, I assumed this was a pro-leave paper?
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Old 11th February 2017, 06:45 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
One was from the Daily Telegraph, I assumed this was a pro-leave paper?
Possibly, but not formally part of the leave campaign which was, simply put, a pack of lies. According to the campaign it was going to be roses and honey and we were all going to be £350M/week better off.

There was never any acknowledgement from a leave campaign filled with the unscrupulous and with those who had no particular opinion but that thought it might be good for their career to hitch their wagons to a train run on ********.

The campaign to remain was practically non-existent, the campaign to leave was a body of work in which one would struggle to find a grain of truth and our entire press corps was too damn afraid of rocking the boat to actually print the required headline, prior to the referendum, which would have looked like this:

LIES!
Here is the list of lies told by Boris and Nigel. See also pages 2, 3, 5-7, 9, 15 and our special, 'lies told by leave' four page pullout.
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Some seem to think the UK leaving the EU is like Robbie leaving Take That.
In reality it's more like Pete leaving The Beatles.

We are lions, not tigers.
Turns out I don't know a lot about tigers.
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Old 11th February 2017, 06:56 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
A clean break to WTO status will leave the EU with little that they can do.
"Fog in Channel, Continent isolated".
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Old 11th February 2017, 10:15 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I completely accept I am a bad loser on this (in general I am a bad loser on Monopoly and Scrabble too but I do better with Epidemic). Interestingly I was not a bad loser on Scottish indolence* because I was much more ambivalent about it, perhaps unlike 'ethnic' Scots I did not have emotional investment in being "Scottish'.
You mean Pandemic, I presume? Duh, it's a cooperative game; you either all win or all lose. BTW, one of my favourite games.
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Old 11th February 2017, 04:33 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
You mean Pandemic, I presume? Duh, it's a cooperative game; you either all win or all lose. BTW, one of my favourite games.
Yes I did mean pandemic. Thank you.
Yes I agree an excellent game.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:15 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
We voted to leave. We didn't vote to leave contingent on getting a good deal, or indeed any kind of deal. Remain enthusiasts who are bad losers need to remember that simple fact.
Really? Because until they got the vote they wanted that was exactly what the Leave campaign promised.
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Old 11th February 2017, 05:57 PM   #141
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It would be more correct to say that leave believed that the EU would be operating in their own self interest if they give us a good deal. And that the EU would be insane to harm themselves by offering a poor deal or no deal.

And that's still what they're saying.
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Old 11th February 2017, 07:41 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It would be more correct to say that leave believed that the EU would be operating in their own self interest if they give us a good deal. And that the EU would be insane to harm themselves by offering a poor deal or no deal.

And that's still what they're saying.
Therefore, we'll get a good deal. I see. What will this good deal be? Lots of profitable trade, but no foreigners wandering about and taking our jobs. And no UK having to accept the decisions of foreign courts. Is that the deal that the EU would be insane not to agree to?
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Old 12th February 2017, 12:01 AM   #143
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Yes.
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Old 12th February 2017, 12:10 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yes.
Why do you expect the EU to act rationally while you (Brexiteers) do not?
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Old 12th February 2017, 12:59 AM   #145
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No - for the simple fact that we won't pay for most of them. The EU is flying a kite and trying to get us to agree to pay for the moon. Obviously we'll pay what's really owed - and the EU can pay us what they owe us too. After we leave we won't be making any further payments.
This is just not true but on one thing I agree we should not make any further payments that cover any UKIP MEPs pensions. The largest of which will be Nigel Farage who has been an MEP for 19 years.
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Old 12th February 2017, 02:01 AM   #146
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yes.
Then I'm afraid they've all gone barking mad. This is from RTÉ 7 Feb.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has finally spelled out via two speeches (London and Davos) and a White Paper that Britain will be out of the single market and probably the customs union (although she left an unexplained caveat that there could be some future customs association between the UK and the EU).

The second is the testimony of Michael Lux, the former head of the European Commission's customs procedures unit, to a House of Commons committee.

He made it clear in sobering terms that Mrs May's idea of a "seamless" or "frictionless" border was a fantasy.

"If you define seamless as no border controls then the answer is no, at least for Ireland, because it is obliged to apply EU law," he told the committee.
When will Johnnie Foreigner come to his senses, eh?
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Old 12th February 2017, 02:09 AM   #147
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It would be more correct to say that leave believed that the EU would be operating in their own self interest if they give us a good deal. And that the EU would be insane to harm themselves by offering a poor deal or no deal.

And that's still what they're saying.
They sound like idiots.
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Old 12th February 2017, 03:34 AM   #148
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I've spent a week skiing with a group that included an enthusiastic Brexiteer. I asked him to outline in broad terms what the economic benefits wold be to the UK of being outside the EU.

He freely admitted that trade terms with the EU would be no better but was confident that things would turn out to be much better overall but was unable to identify an industry or industry sector that would benefit. He was clear that in his opinion, Trump would make sure that the UK had a great trade deal with the US to pick up any slack from any drop-off in EU trade.

It merely reinforced my prejudiced view that for many, Brexit is founded on magical thinking.
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Old 12th February 2017, 04:17 AM   #149
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Trump hasn't a clue. For example he was complaining about Japan not buying American cars and implying it was because of some kind of trade restriction.
There isn't any kind of tariff on foreign car imports in to Japan. Mercedes, BMW, VW, Mini and Jaguar have no problems. Japan doesn’t buy American cars because thry are too big for a lot of streets and parking spaces, have the wheel on the wrong side, have half the fuel economy and aren't of the quality they like.
If Trump thinks it's because of trade deals and tariffs what else doesn’t he understand about international trade and what is he going to insist on when negotiations start with the UK?

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Old 12th February 2017, 05:24 AM   #150
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump hasn't a clue. For example he was complaining about Japan not buying American cars and implying it was because of some kind of trade restriction.
There isn't any kind of tariff on foreign car imports in to Japan. Mercedes, BMW, VW, Mini and Jaguar have no problems. Japan doesn’t buy American cars because thry are too big for a lot of streets and parking spaces, have the wheel on the wrong side, have half the fuel economy and aren't of the quality they like.
If Trump thinks it's because of trade deals and tariffs what else doesn’t he understand about international trade and what is he going to insist on when negotiations start with the UK?
Given his statements and even his behaviour, I guess any trade deal would involve the UK accepting what the US wants - standards etc. We know he's willing to use the fact that the US is a larger market than any other individual country to try putting the squeeze on - look at Mexico.

But even so it would take a long time to sort everything out.
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Old 12th February 2017, 05:55 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Given his statements and even his behaviour, I guess any trade deal would involve the UK accepting what the US wants - standards etc. We know he's willing to use the fact that the US is a larger market than any other individual country to try putting the squeeze on - look at Mexico.

But even so it would take a long time to sort everything out.
Pretty sure that he won't insist on such, they are just impediments to making more money great customer experience.
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Old 12th February 2017, 08:14 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I don't think so. There was one previous referendum in 1975 (and it's at least one 'generation' since that date) but that referendum was on whether Britain should remain in the EEC (aka 'common market') which was a very different entity compared to the EU it's evolved into.

I've no objection at all to future referendums to rejoin the EU after we've left - providing the EU indicates that it would be prepared to have us back and there is majority support in Britain to hold a referendum.

I've no fears that we would ever rejoin as 1) The EU may collapse in the near future anyway and 2) Even if the EU survives there is no chance that Britain would vote to rejoin once the British have had the opportunity to see how much better things are once they're outside it.
Wishfull thinking. You have no way to know whether it will be better ir not , or much worst, as you are no economist. And yhe crushing majority if economist see it as most probably not a good deal for either uk or eu, but probably worst for uk.

If the uk want again in, i say only if they drop pounds, and utterly convert to SI and drive to the right. And a bit of crow also would be nice.
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Old 12th February 2017, 08:18 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
All the EU talk of the UK making payments to the EU in order to leave is nonsense on stilts. They want €60 billion so they can pay pensions to retired EU officials after we've left. Hahaha!

No one pays to leave a club. When you leave a club you just walk away and if the club asks you for money you tell the club to get stuffed.
Leaving a club still leave you on the hook for past contractual fulfillment. That you think it does not says a lot on the vslidity of what you say.
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Old 12th February 2017, 08:19 AM   #154
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
Wishfull thinking. You have no way to know whether it will be better ir not , or much worst, as you are no economist. And yhe crushing majority if economist see it as most probably not a good deal for either uk or eu, but probably worst for uk.

If the uk want again in, i say only if they drop pounds, and utterly convert to SI and drive to the right. And a bit of crow also would be nice.
Economists don't seem to have a clue about predicting the future - no better than flipping a coin. They're very good at explaining the reasons things happened after the event though.

I agree with all your conditions for rejoining - of course they make it even more vanishingly unlikely that we ever would rejoin, so crow doesn't enter into it.
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Old 12th February 2017, 08:22 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
Leaving a club still leave you on the hook for past contractual fulfillment. That you think it does not says a lot on the vslidity of what you say.
Well, if there are actual contracts, then maybe. But like most things EU, everything is vague and open to interpretation - a tempting feast for lawyers who will be able to argue over and string out the process for ages while lining their pockets at taxpayer's expense.
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Old 12th February 2017, 08:25 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I think this is likely to be the truth. It is difficult to make nations pay debts. If the EU want UK cash, this will be a negotiating issue. The UK could walk away, the EU then could undertake prolonged legal action at the ICJ to enforce the debt, the problem is any enforcement is done via the UN security council on which the UK is a permanent member with a veto. So effectively the EU will be unable to enforce any decision against the UK. Equally there will have to be negotiations over a lump sum payment vs. staged payments, currency, interest.

So since this is effectively an unenforceable debt to get payment the EU will have to offer incentives to the UK. The EU does itself no favours by bigging up the debt, as any smaller amount agreed at the end of the negotiations looks like a loss for the EU and gain for the UK.
Firstly that would be a sign to ALL trading oartner to shy away because the uk can tell you to **** off if they wish. Secondly it would mist probably land before the inf and wto and has no reason to go to the frigging un. Uk has no veto in those.
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Old 12th February 2017, 08:38 AM   #157
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The contracts, where there are any, were most likely written assuming that all the parties involved would remain EU members. Any time that the EU is mentioned in such contracts it allows post-Brexit UK to argue, "those rules don't apply to us as we are no longer EU members."

As for other trading countries, they will be happy to deal with us on the basis of trade. If they think we have given money to the EU that we need not have done, that will diminish us in their eyes.
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Old 12th February 2017, 11:46 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The contracts, where there are any, were most likely written assuming that all the parties involved would remain EU members. Any time that the EU is mentioned in such contracts it allows post-Brexit UK to argue, "those rules don't apply to us as we are no longer EU members."

As for other trading countries, they will be happy to deal with us on the basis of trade. If they think we have given money to the EU that we need not have done, that will diminish us in their eyes.
The only annoying thing about this wrap yourself in the Butcher's Apron and deny reality claptrap is that it is everyone else who will foot the bill when reality hits. If it was only the Brexiteers who would suffer it would be amusing to watch them choke on their hubris.
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Old 12th February 2017, 03:28 PM   #159
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
Firstly that would be a sign to ALL trading oartner to shy away because the uk can tell you to **** off if they wish. Secondly it would mist probably land before the inf and wto and has no reason to go to the frigging un. Uk has no veto in those.
No, because in this situation there is no agreed debt. There will be what the EU claim that the UK owes, consequent on the Brexit process, and quite possibly a counter claim from the UK for a proportion of EU assets. Sometime way down the line there may be a ICJ ruling, but even then this will be subject to negotiation. If you really think that trade deals will suddenly collapse because of one dispute then you live in a fantasy land. There are lots of defaults, disputes and things carry on pretty much the same, the interest rates on debt might rise, but given the poor economic state of the EU, it is more likely the EU that will find trouble with the international financial markets.
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Old 12th February 2017, 03:58 PM   #160
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
The only annoying thing about this wrap yourself in the Butcher's Apron and deny reality claptrap is that it is everyone else who will foot the bill when reality hits. If it was only the Brexiteers who would suffer it would be amusing to watch them choke on their hubris.
Or when Brexit happens all those brown and black people in the UK don't magically dissapeare
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