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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Tony Abbott

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Old 9th May 2018, 12:03 AM   #1561
arthwollipot
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I'd need to see the wording of any proposed change before I decide which way to vote in a referendum. Section 44 is complex and difficult, and I wouldn't want to respond in a knee-jerk fashion.
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Old 9th May 2018, 12:28 AM   #1562
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Barnaby Joyce (and others?) was not the Senate. No reason for others to be disqualified who are also in the lower house.




That would still need a referendum. The wording is not important. It just needs to be made simple to be declared eligible. If it is not fixed then, even if procedures in the major parties are implemented, then eventually the reasons for them would be forgotten. And independants may also be caught. Plus those procedures may stop good people from standing. For example Lionking mentions Bob Hawke. Suppose the day after he was persuaded to stand for parliament he mentioned that his parents were born in the UK and it was too late to fix? Australian history would be a lot different.
Barnaby was one of the bozos I referenced.
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Old 9th May 2018, 04:32 AM   #1563
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
That would still need a referendum. The wording is not important. It just needs to be made simple to be declared eligible.
The wording is everything. Why do you think that the high court was able to stuff the MPs around so much?
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Old 9th May 2018, 05:30 AM   #1564
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Four by-elections are going to be held because of this, on top of Tim Hammond's resignation for family reasons.

In terms of by-elections this parliament is now equal to the 37th parliament. At this rate they might equal the number of by-elections held during the 20th parliament where 9 MPs died. (There was one resignation leading to a total of 10 by-elections in that term.)

I think the Mayo (SA) by-election will be an interesting one, especially since it includes the state seat of Mawson which fell to Labor in the last state election despite being a notional Liberal seat. I think the Liberal party will try and capitalise on the failure of Xenophon at the state level to win the seat back for the party. The question I have is will Labor preference Centre Alliance before the Liberals in order to weaken the Liberals? The seat is technically Marginal, at 54.97 versus the Liberals, but has there been enough change to give the Liberals the ~5% needed to win?

Longman (QLD), Braddon (TAS), Perth, and Fremantle (both WA obviously) are the four Labor seats up for grabs. Fremantle is a safe seat needing an ~8% swing to the Liberals for them to pick up the seat. Longman is the most marginal, a 0.8% swing to the Liberals would allow them to regain the seat. I expect the Liberals to also campaign hard here. A swing of 2.21% would see Braddon change hands, while Perth needs a 3.34% swing for the same thing to happen. With the exception of Perth I think the most likely scenario would be the incumbents who have resigned to re-contest the seats, which does give them a bit of an advantage.
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Old 9th May 2018, 02:46 PM   #1565
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Can we, as a country, just issue a vote of no confidence in this parliament?
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Old 9th May 2018, 05:21 PM   #1566
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Can we, as a country, just issue a vote of no confidence in this parliament?

I think they call those "elections".
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Old 10th May 2018, 01:44 AM   #1567
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
I think they call those "elections".
Yeah, but I just want to get rid of the whole lot of them, all at once, right now. And start again.
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Old 10th May 2018, 04:19 AM   #1568
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But you know they aren't going to because the Liberals know they'll lose.
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Old 10th May 2018, 04:36 AM   #1569
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Can we, as a country, just issue a vote of no confidence in this parliament?
Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
I think they call those "elections".
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Yeah, but I just want to get rid of the whole lot of them, all at once, right now. And start again.
A person in King James 1's time had the same idea and attempted to implement it. Trouble was someone talked and he was burned at the stake.

Pity such a thing is slightly illegal. Slightly as in slightly pregnant.
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Old 10th May 2018, 02:23 PM   #1570
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
A person in King James 1's time had the same idea and attempted to implement it. Trouble was someone talked and he was burned at the stake.

Pity such a thing is slightly illegal. Slightly as in slightly pregnant.
Yeah, I can't wait for November.
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Old 10th May 2018, 02:40 PM   #1571
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Yeah, but I just want to get rid of the whole lot of them, all at once, right now. And start again.
That sounds like a good idea. You should blow up parliament.

Maybe in the years to come we may celebrate "arthwollipot's night" with fireworks they way we used to celebrate "Guy Fawkes night".
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Old 10th May 2018, 02:45 PM   #1572
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I will live on in infamy, silly rhymes, and strange masks.
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Old 10th May 2018, 07:27 PM   #1573
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I will live on in infamy, silly rhymes, and strange masks.
Even better yet, you will put all previous terrorist acts in Australia to shame.
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Old 11th May 2018, 07:00 AM   #1574
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Even better yet, you will put all previous terrorist acts in Australia to shame.

He wouldn't be a terrorist. He'd be a freedom fighter.
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Old 14th May 2018, 05:01 AM   #1575
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The Liberals won't be contesting the WA by-elections. Not surprised since Perth and Fremantle were the safest of the seats up for grabs.
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Old 14th May 2018, 09:33 AM   #1576
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
The Liberals won't be contesting the WA by-elections. Not surprised since Perth and Fremantle were the safest of the seats up for grabs.
More to the point, a swing against the coalition in a by-election would bad news for the next federal election.

Meanwhile, although Labor still leads 51-49 in the polls, Turnbull has increased his lead over Shorten as preferred PM to 46-34.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...4140e04449b0d7
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Old 14th May 2018, 11:10 PM   #1577
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It's not the Preferred Prime Minister stat that matters though, is it? The people elect the party, not the Prime Minister. If Labor wins a majority of seats in the next election, it won't matter if Satan is the leader of the party, he'll still be Prime Minister.
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Old 15th May 2018, 12:23 AM   #1578
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
It's not the Preferred Prime Minister stat that matters though, is it? The people elect the party, not the Prime Minister. If Labor wins a majority of seats in the next election, it won't matter if Satan is the leader of the party, he'll still be Prime Minister.
It can be relevant. A popular leader can go around the country making speeches and gaining votes. A less popular leader needs to leave that to others. If they insist on making speeches, they may not gain the votes. This is the problem with the Labor party. They may be ahead in the polls at the moment, but come election time Turnbull can go around the country and say not much more than "vote for me, I am good. Labor is bad." He will then gain votes. Labor does not have that option. Other party members may not even want Shorten to turn up to their election meetings.
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