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Old 12th July 2021, 11:48 PM   #1481
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You mean like the guy who paid 10,000 BTC for a pizza in 2009?

It's not a matter of faith but what is profitable. Bitcoin is not especially suitable for transactions because it is highly deflationary, there are fees associated with every transaction and it can't process transactions fast enough to be a currency.

The best (profitable) uses of bitcoin are as an instrument of speculation and for transferring large sums across the globe within minutes without interference from any authority.
The latter is the purest argument.
Of course there are large numbers of clones that dilute the value of bitcoin.
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Old 13th July 2021, 12:12 AM   #1482
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
My issue is when I see Bitcoin supporters talk about holding Bitcoin.

Shouldnt they be constantly selling Bitcoin for goods and services if they believe in it?
No, you hold Bitcoin for when the value suddenly rises exponentially and you can exchange it for more cash than you spent on it. You hold Etherium.

I bought some Bitcoin a few weeks ago - not a lot - and I kept some and exchanged most of it for Etherium. Since then, the value of both has remained remarkably stable. I got in right before it stabilised, so I didn't lose much of my initial stake.
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Old 13th July 2021, 05:50 AM   #1483
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I understand "Bitcoin supporter" as someone who hopes he will make (big) money on it. And hodling seems to be good strategy for that.
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Old 13th July 2021, 05:51 AM   #1484
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Again this center cannot hold. A currency can't work as an investment if nobody ever uses it as a currency because it's too valuable of an investment and an investment can't work as a currency for the same reasons.
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Old 13th July 2021, 05:57 AM   #1485
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Please not the prediction was not time limited. Much less to 'now'.
I don't understand your point. Of course if it's not limited it will crash at some point, given that 'not time limited' includes millennia.
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Old 13th July 2021, 06:06 AM   #1486
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
I don't understand your point. Of course if it's not limited it will crash at some point, given that 'not time limited' includes millennia.
Exactly. My point was Samson's prediction had no information value. It wasn't a statement you can agree or disagree with. You're supposed to enjoy it for its dramatic effect I guess.
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Old 13th July 2021, 07:03 AM   #1487
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May be a new track here but more of a technical question. I understand Bitcoin is limited to a total quantity of 21 million "coins".

This is just to settle my curiosity on a theoretical question. For coin #21,000,000... even with multiple machines mining for that last coin, all reasonable odds are that only one machine will find it. But just as a hypothetical, suppose two machines, not connected to the Internet at the time, independently found the last coin. When is it settled which one is the "real" one, and how?
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Old 13th July 2021, 07:10 AM   #1488
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Exactly. My point was Samson's prediction had no information value. It wasn't a statement you can agree or disagree with. You're supposed to enjoy it for its dramatic effect I guess.
Yeah well I assumed he wasn't talking about the 41th millennium when humanity has to deal with Slaanesh. I think it rather obvious that he's talking in the short term.
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Old 13th July 2021, 07:21 AM   #1489
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
May be a new track here but more of a technical question. I understand Bitcoin is limited to a total quantity of 21 million "coins".

This is just to settle my curiosity on a theoretical question. For coin #21,000,000... even with multiple machines mining for that last coin, all reasonable odds are that only one machine will find it. But just as a hypothetical, suppose two machines, not connected to the Internet at the time, independently found the last coin. When is it settled which one is the "real" one, and how?
To oversimplify the math a bit there is a limit on the total number of possible Bitcoins, but it's exponential, each new Bitcoin make is harder to make, when we get to closer and closer to that 21 million mark Bitcoins will get harder and harder to make to the point of practical impossibility.

So the odds of a "Two Last Bitcoins" Ship of Theseus problem are astronomically small, to the point that "impossible" is fair and accurate for any real world discussion.
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Old 13th July 2021, 07:52 AM   #1490
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
To oversimplify the math a bit there is a limit on the total number of possible Bitcoins, but it's exponential, each new Bitcoin make is harder to make, when we get to closer and closer to that 21 million mark Bitcoins will get harder and harder to make to the point of practical impossibility.

So the odds of a "Two Last Bitcoins" Ship of Theseus problem are astronomically small, to the point that "impossible" is fair and accurate for any real world discussion.
I'm not worried about it happening. I'm just wondering what the technical result would be if it did anyway, even if the possibility is purely theoretical.
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Old 13th July 2021, 08:11 AM   #1491
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
I'm not worried about it happening. I'm just wondering what the technical result would be if it did anyway, even if the possibility is purely theoretical.
It looks like (and be aware we're getting way techie and above my head here so I am most strenuously not speaking as an expert or authority) that in that case "Longest Blockchain Wins" is the standard rule of thumb.

https://criptomo.com/two-simultaneous-blocks/
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Old 13th July 2021, 08:31 AM   #1492
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That is fascinating--thank you.

In examining that scenario, I notice another that may be more likely. It appears right now the insurance against orphaned bitcoins is waiting for a certain number of confirmations to ensure the bitcoin has "stuck".

Especially if verifying becomes increasingly difficult, and the value of a bitcoin increases, will we reach a point where an "orphaned" bitcoin causes a massive problem somewhere down the road? I realize the likelihood of an orphan decreases over time, but once bitcoins become sufficiently valuable it only takes one incident for a huge problem.
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Old 13th July 2021, 09:55 AM   #1493
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
May be a new track here but more of a technical question. I understand Bitcoin is limited to a total quantity of 21 million "coins".

This is just to settle my curiosity on a theoretical question. For coin #21,000,000... even with multiple machines mining for that last coin, all reasonable odds are that only one machine will find it. But just as a hypothetical, suppose two machines, not connected to the Internet at the time, independently found the last coin. When is it settled which one is the "real" one, and how?
Two or more miners mining a block at the same time is not an uncommon occurrence. This creates a "fork". The rule is that the longest fork wins and the other block gets discarded. So it will be if two miners mine the last satoshi in 2140. Only one of them will get their block permanently on the blockchain and claim that reward.

Of course, by that time, block rewards will come from transaction fees rather than new satoshis.
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Old 13th July 2021, 10:00 AM   #1494
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Of course there are large numbers of clones that dilute the value of bitcoin.
Do I have to repost post #1403 again already?
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Old 13th July 2021, 12:48 PM   #1495
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Two or more miners mining a block at the same time is not an uncommon occurrence. This creates a "fork". The rule is that the longest fork wins and the other block gets discarded. So it will be if two miners mine the last satoshi in 2140. Only one of them will get their block permanently on the blockchain and claim that reward.

Of course, by that time, block rewards will come from transaction fees rather than new satoshis.
The source of trouble I'm seeing is that it appears the soon-to-be-orphan bitcoin can be transacted with until the conflict occurs and can be resolved. I can imagine a lot of trouble caused by such a hot potato if one fork can remain undetected for a significant amount of time.
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Old 13th July 2021, 11:10 PM   #1496
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
The source of trouble I'm seeing is that it appears the soon-to-be-orphan bitcoin can be transacted with until the conflict occurs and can be resolved. I can imagine a lot of trouble caused by such a hot potato if one fork can remain undetected for a significant amount of time.
When your transaction makes it to the blockchain it is "confirmed". Each time another block is added to the chain after that your transaction gets another "confirmation".

Because of the way the SHA256 algorithm works, the more confirmations your transaction receives, the less likely it is that another fork will remove your transaction. After 6 confirmations it is virtually impossible that your transaction is deleted. So many BTC recipients insist on seeing 6 confirmations before accepting your transaction.
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Old 14th July 2021, 03:07 AM   #1497
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
When your transaction makes it to the blockchain it is "confirmed". Each time another block is added to the chain after that your transaction gets another "confirmation".

Because of the way the SHA256 algorithm works, the more confirmations your transaction receives, the less likely it is that another fork will remove your transaction. After 6 confirmations it is virtually impossible that your transaction is deleted. So many BTC recipients insist on seeing 6 confirmations before accepting your transaction.
Was this all in the original code?
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Old 14th July 2021, 03:56 AM   #1498
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Was this all in the original code?
Yes. It was the way to solve the "double spend" problem.
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Old 14th July 2021, 04:40 AM   #1499
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Yes. It was the way to solve the "double spend" problem.
To foresee to a robust trillon dollar construct is pure genius.
Fascinating.
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Old 14th July 2021, 06:11 AM   #1500
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
When your transaction makes it to the blockchain it is "confirmed". Each time another block is added to the chain after that your transaction gets another "confirmation".

Because of the way the SHA256 algorithm works, the more confirmations your transaction receives, the less likely it is that another fork will remove your transaction. After 6 confirmations it is virtually impossible that your transaction is deleted. So many BTC recipients insist on seeing 6 confirmations before accepting your transaction.
That seems a practical standard. Does the time/resources it takes to get those 6 confirmations increase over time?

Also "virtually impossible" is nice--but a magnitude may be helpful. Are there some numbers assigned to those probabilities? I imagine there are, I'm just curious about them--mainly because the stakes escalate over time. There will come a point where someone producing a bitcoin is a major event.
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Old 15th July 2021, 12:51 AM   #1501
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How many people in this thread have read Satoshi's original white paper?
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Old 15th July 2021, 04:24 AM   #1502
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
That seems a practical standard. Does the time/resources it takes to get those 6 confirmations increase over time?
No it takes an average of 10 minutes to get a block on the chain. Energy rather than time is what increases if more resources are thrown into mining.

This means that once your transaction receives its first confirmation, it will take less than 1 hour to get its sixth.

Originally Posted by gnome View Post
Also "virtually impossible" is nice--but a magnitude may be helpful. Are there some numbers assigned to those probabilities? I imagine there are, I'm just curious about them--mainly because the stakes escalate over time.
It's been some time since I saw all the caluclations but as you will see "virtually impossible" overestimates the probability of a fraud.

In the first case, if a transaction gets added to the wrong fork then it will ultimately be reprocessed and added to the right fork if the wallet has the funds IE provided that another spend hasn't occurred since then.

For somebody to mess up a transaction in the block they need to recompute the hash code of the block (extremely difficult as mining shows). If it is not the latest block then they have to recompute the hash code of every subsequent block. That is energy raised to the power of N! That is why a transaction that has received 6 confirmations can't be messed up. There is not enough energy in the world for that to happen.

Originally Posted by gnome View Post
There will come a point where someone producing a bitcoin is a major event.
That point will be in 2032. The current mining rate is 3.25 BTC/block and it halves every 4 years. By 2032 it will have halved to 0.78125 BTC per block so nobody will be able to produce a whole bitcoin from a block.
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Old 16th July 2021, 02:09 AM   #1503
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The picture looks bleak for crypto.
The market cap at 1.3t looks like an apple or amazon.
Is this fair or proper?

The next week will tell.
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Old 16th July 2021, 05:06 AM   #1504
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Criminals, greedies and environmental vandals will hate the next few months in cryptos
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Old 19th July 2021, 10:31 AM   #1505
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Tik-Tok bans crypto shills

Quote:
The wildly popular social media app TikTok has updated its branded content policy to ban touting financial services which includes cryptocurrencies.

Social media giant TikTok has taken a drastic step toward not only banning cryptocurrency influencers on its platform but all creators promoting financial services, according to the Daily Mail. These include, but are not limited to, cryptocurrencies, buy now pay later companies, loans, credit cards, and Forex companies.

According to the report, the move is directly aimed at putting a stop to the worrying trend of high-risk investments being touted on social media. Many of these unsuitable high-risk investments are nothing more than various frauds, scams, or schemes. As a result of this shadowbanning, legitimate financial firms will also be affected and no longer be able to utilize influencers in the same way they do now.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tikto...194500204.html
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Old 19th July 2021, 07:37 PM   #1506
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Looks to me like they're banning all sorts of financial services advertising. Not sure why crypto is being singled out for special attention here.
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Old 20th July 2021, 05:52 AM   #1507
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Looks to me like they're banning all sorts of financial services advertising. Not sure why crypto is being singled out for special attention here.
The popularity of crypto scams probably has a lot to do with the heightened scrutiny that unchecked financial "advisors" on the platform are getting.
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Old 20th July 2021, 10:59 AM   #1508
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Not sure why crypto is being singled out for special attention here.
It's not cryptocurrencies that are being banned but "cryptocurrency influencers". These are the people who say "invest in our profit-making cryptocurrency company and get rich overnight".
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Old 20th July 2021, 08:05 PM   #1509
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It's not cryptocurrencies that are being banned but "cryptocurrency influencers". These are the people who say "invest in our profit-making cryptocurrency company and get rich overnight".
Yes, but they also state that they're banning buy now pay later companies, loans, credit cards, and Forex companies and others. All sorts of financial traders in fact. But for some reason it's crypto that's getting the attention.
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Old 20th July 2021, 08:09 PM   #1510
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Yes, but they also state that they're banning buy now pay later companies, loans, credit cards, and Forex companies and others. All sorts of financial traders in fact. But for some reason it's crypto that's getting the attention.
I bet crypto is 99% of current content. Crypto is the reason for the ban. Banning the actually means crypto is not singled out.
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Old 20th July 2021, 11:47 PM   #1511
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Yes, but they also state that they're banning buy now pay later companies, loans, credit cards, and Forex companies and others. All sorts of financial traders in fact. But for some reason it's crypto that's getting the attention.
Well this IS the bitcoin thread so it is not unreasonable to note Tik Tok's action here.
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Old 20th July 2021, 11:49 PM   #1512
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I bet crypto is 99% of current content. Crypto is the reason for the ban. Banning the actually means crypto is not singled out.
How are you going to establish that?
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Old 20th July 2021, 11:50 PM   #1513
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Well this IS the bitcoin thread so it is not unreasonable to note Tik Tok's action here.
I guess.
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Old 8th August 2021, 11:41 PM   #1514
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Bitcoin at 43535 is in a sweet sell zone.
The pendulum swings again.
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Old 8th August 2021, 11:47 PM   #1515
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Bitcoin at 43535 is in a sweet sell zone.
The pendulum swings again.
My portfolio is getting up to what I initially spent on it.
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Old 9th August 2021, 12:30 AM   #1516
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
My portfolio is getting up to what I initially spent on it.
Everyone here will declare my post is a signal to BUY lol
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Old 9th August 2021, 12:50 AM   #1517
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Everyone here will declare my post is a signal to BUY lol
I'm not going to sell until I can sell at a profit.

But the value of my portfolio has been going up slowly but steadily for weeks now. Of course, 2/3 of the value is in Etherium, so it's insulated from some of Bitcoin's fluctuations, but it's been pretty steady.
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Old 9th August 2021, 03:48 AM   #1518
Samson
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I'm not going to sell until I can sell at a profit.

But the value of my portfolio has been going up slowly but steadily for weeks now. Of course, 2/3 of the value is in Etherium, so it's insulated from some of Bitcoin's fluctuations, but it's been pretty steady.

Up 2k since my sell.
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Old 9th August 2021, 05:03 AM   #1519
psionl0
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Originally Posted by Samson on 16th July 2021 View Post
The picture looks bleak for crypto.
The price was hovering at around 30K at that time.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Bitcoin at 43535 is in a sweet sell zone.
The pendulum swings again.
As usual, your predictions are less reliable than a stopped clock.
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Old 9th August 2021, 05:33 AM   #1520
Samson
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The price was hovering at around 30K at that time.


As usual, your predictions are less reliable than a stopped clock.
Sadly true.
I predict crypto billionaires will donate to Greece and Turkey to fight wild fires.

Last edited by Samson; 9th August 2021 at 05:39 AM.
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