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Old Today, 09:36 AM   #1001
Arcade22
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yep. Pretty much. Japan's main outbreaks were, surprise surprise, in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and Fukuoka - the big cities and surrounding areas. Maybe the only one that was a little bit unusual was Hokkaido where the infections seemed to be pretty spread out.

Anyway, I have seen it argued by a lot of people that South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan (!) don't count because of small sizes, island nations, easy to control, etc... unlike Belgium (!), San Marino (!), Italy, UK (!), Sweden etc...
I'm pretty sure one of the most important, if not the most important, reasons why the countries you mentioned there did so very well has to do with the fact that they had direct experience to the previous outbreak of SARS.

For example i read that, when some epidemiologist in Hong Kong explained why the virus had not been able to go into any elderly care home was to a large degree because every single elderly care home had a trained and educated individual who was responsible for maintaining preparedness for emergency outbreaks, especially for outbreaks of SARS's like viruses. I can only assume that they had prepared just as well in other parts of society.

Meanwhile in Sweden some care homes were "surprised" when visitation bans became mandatory (some had enacted them voluntarily) even though the virus has been in the news for a long time.
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And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann
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Old Today, 09:47 AM   #1002
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
I'm pretty sure one of the most important, if not the most important, reasons why the countries you mentioned there did so very well has to do with the fact that they had direct experience to the previous outbreak of SARS.
China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, yes. South Korea and Japan, no. South Korea has had experience with MERS though, and that seems to have a much nastier death rate than COVID-19 so that could have had the same effect.

ETA: Japan had no experience with either SARS or MERS. Somehow they managed okay (maybe by luck rather than government action, but I don't know...)

Still, the US and UK were supposedly rated highest in terms of Pandemic Preparedness. How is it they dropped the ball so badly compared with countries from whom they could have learnt something?
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)

Last edited by angrysoba; Today at 09:48 AM.
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Old Today, 10:13 AM   #1003
dann
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Tegnell om allvarliga läget - fjärde dagen med högst dödstal (Aftonbladet.se, May 29, 2020)
Tegnell about the serious situation – fourth day in a row with the highest death toll - 5,6 per million

The article is accompanied by a short video. For those of you who don’t understand Swedish, notice that Tegnell no longer looks as confident and self-assured as he used to.


Quote:
För sex veckor sedan garanterade Folkhälsomyndigheten att man kunde coronatesta 100 000 personer i veckan, enligt interna mejl.
Ändå har man bara nått upp till knappt 30 000 tester i veckan.
Nu backar myndigheten från strategin och hävdar att det inte längre finns behov av så omfattande testning.
Interna mejl visar löftet om masstestning – nu backar myndigheten (Aftonbladet.se, May 29, 2020)
Translation:
Six weeks ago the Public Health Agency guarantied that they could test 100,000 a week for coronavirus according to emails from and to the Health Agency and the government.
And yet they have only reached less than 30,000 a week.
Now the Agency backs away from the strategy and claims that there is no longer any need for testing on that scale.
Internal email shows the promise of mass testing – now the Public Health Agency backs away from that
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Today, 10:25 AM   #1004
dann
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
I'm pretty sure one of the most important, if not the most important, reasons why the countries you mentioned there did so very well has to do with the fact that they had direct experience to the previous outbreak of SARS.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, yes. South Korea and Japan, no.
Islands
Dictators
SARS experience


Another bad excuse shot down. I'm looking forward to the next one. Is it time to start a poll?
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Today, 10:30 AM   #1005
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Islands
Dictators
SARS experience
small countries
small populations


Originally Posted by dann View Post
Another bad excuse shot down. I'm looking forward to the next one. Is it time to start a poll?
Could it be something to do with the flags?
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old Today, 10:40 AM   #1006
Arcade22
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Still, the US and UK were supposedly rated highest in terms of Pandemic Preparedness.
According to whom?

Edit: as far as i recalled reading the USA was considered especially vulnerable to pandemics.
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We would be a lot safer if the Government would take its money out of science and put it into astrology and the reading of palms. Only in superstition is there hope. - Kurt Vonnegut Jr

And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann

Last edited by Arcade22; Today at 11:10 AM.
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Old Today, 10:44 AM   #1007
Arcade22
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, yes. South Korea and Japan, no. South Korea has had experience with MERS though, and that seems to have a much nastier death rate than COVID-19 so that could have had the same effect.
By the way with regards to South Korea, i read that there was some political controversy about the lack of preparedness to some previous influenza that resulted in them setting up some up a quite robust nationwide disease tracking system.
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We would be a lot safer if the Government would take its money out of science and put it into astrology and the reading of palms. Only in superstition is there hope. - Kurt Vonnegut Jr

And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann
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Old Today, 10:46 AM   #1008
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How Sweden wasted a ‘rare opportunity’ to study coronavirus in schools

Quote:
There’s nearly universal agreement that widespread, long-lasting school closures harm children. Not only do children fall behind in learning, but isolation harms their mental health and leaves some vulnerable to abuse and neglect. But during this pandemic, does that harm outweigh the risk—to children, school staff, families, and the community at large—of keeping schools open and giving the coronavirus more chances to spread?

The one country that could have definitively answered that question has apparently failed to collect any data. Bucking a global trend, Sweden has kept day care centers and schools through ninth grade open since COVID-19 emerged, without any major adjustments to class size, lunch policies, or recess rules. That made the country a perfect natural experiment about schools’ role in viral spread that many others could have learned from as they reopen schools or ponder when to do so. Yet Swedish officials have not tracked infections among school children—even when large outbreaks led to the closure of individual schools or staff members died of the disease.
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Old Today, 11:08 AM   #1009
Arcade22
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Quote:
However, a scan of Swedish newspapers makes clear that school outbreaks have occurred. In the town of Skellefteå, a teacher died and 18 of 76 staff tested positive at a school with about 500 students in preschool through ninth grade.
That's one of the very few that has occurred as far as i can tell and of course it just so happens that i live nearby. We have had a very low level of spread here and there has been no real significant "peak" in hospitalizations or deaths at all.
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We would be a lot safer if the Government would take its money out of science and put it into astrology and the reading of palms. Only in superstition is there hope. - Kurt Vonnegut Jr

And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann

Last edited by Arcade22; Today at 11:12 AM.
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Old Today, 11:13 AM   #1010
dann
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Could it be something to do with the flags?

You seem to be on to something:
Unlike , many of the countries that are doing well seem to have the color red in their flags: , , , , , , ,

But doesn't, which is a problem. Belgium, however, does, which is an even bigger one.

So no, testing-tracing-quarantining still seems to be the way to go, unless you were able to nip it in the bud, like Mongolia.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; Today at 11:28 AM.
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Old Today, 11:26 AM   #1011
dann
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post

At this point, people should know better than to ask Swedish researchers relying on information from Anders Tegnell about anything:

Quote:
In a review paper published 19 May in Acta Paediatrica, Ludvigsson concluded that children are “unlikely to be the main drivers” of COVID-19 spread. He cited case studies from France and Australia but wrote that, “So far there have been no reports of COVID-19 outbreaks in Swedish schools,” citing “personal communication” from Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, on 12 May. “This supports the argument that asymptomatic children attending schools are unlikely to spread the disease,” Ludvigsson wrote.

However, a scan of Swedish newspapers makes clear that school outbreaks have occurred. In the town of Skellefteå, a teacher died and 18 of 76 staff tested positive at a school with about 500 students in preschool through ninth grade. The school closed for 2 weeks because so many staff were sick, but students were not tested for the virus. In Uppsala, staff protested when school officials, citing patient privacy rules, declined to notify families or staff that a teacher had tested positive. No contact tracing was done at the school. At least two staff members at other schools have died, but those schools remained open and no one attempted to trace the spread of the disease there. When asked about these cases, Ludvigsson said he was unaware of them. He did not respond to a query about whether he would amend the review article to include them.

Man, what a researcher!
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/dann
"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Today, 03:00 PM   #1012
Wayward son2
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
I don't know what good it'll do, as all of you have already determined that Sweden is a disaster area and that those of us poor fools who live here are living on borrowed time...

... the big debate in Sweden right now is about how to avoid the actual disaster that killed so many people in retirement homes - about half of total deaths as I recall. The problem appears to have been structural and politically charged. Employees on these homes are often low wage, low education and with a form of employment that gives them no sick-leave. They did not stay home as instructed by authorities because they couldn't afford to.
Keep up what you are doing. I don't know if when the dust settles Sweden will come out looking good or looking bad, and neither does everyone on here who claims certainty. In Quebec, Canada - a province with almost as many people as Sweden (and a similar size with a similar population density and similar urban/rural split), they have a significantly higher death rate due to covid19 than Sweden. This despite being one of the fastest areas in the world to lockdown (they only had 17 cases and not deaths at the time). Same problem with nursing homes, and the status of those employees. More than 80% of deaths in Canada are in extended living facilities. The death rate for those under 65 is similar to the death rate from traffic fatalities over the same period of time.
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