Continuation The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 3

[Filippo Lippi]

A working track and trace system would be useful for that kind of thing (parochial post)

[Darat]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

Has there been any analysis of what the risks of catching Covid-19 in various situations actually are? How risky is shopping at the supermarket, for example?

There was this a few weeks ago: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...i-b904636.html

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi

A working track and trace system would be useful for that kind of thing (parochial post)

Well, some countries do have such systems, even if the UK doesn't.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

It's the same link as yours.

Thank you, I know that, but our readers may not. I was lazy in not doing the link myself; I apologise. I think my post was unduly curt.

[rjh01]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

Has there been any analysis of what the risks of catching Covid-19 in various situations actually are? How risky is shopping at the supermarket, for example?

Here is some raw data. You can do some research using this (and other similar sources) and publish a paper based on the results.


https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/latest-news-and-updates

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi

A working track and trace system would be useful for that kind of thing (parochial post)

Not sure where you are posting from, but by the phraseology England? In which case things have gone beyond any meaningful contact tracing at the moment. If you happen to be a case in the Scilly Isles or Orkney the local health protection team would follow up any where else the numbers are rising too fast.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

Well, some countries do have such systems, even if the UK doesn't.

The problem is it needs both sides. Up until say mid December there was an effective contact tracing process, I know people doing it and they were doing it conscientiously and effectively. One even went out of the office to pin down one contact working in the coffee shop down the street (despite the text alerting her, which should have caused self isolation). (Dobbed in by her mother!) On the other hand I have a patient who was contacted but continued to work (when they should have self-isolated), then became symptomatic and continued to work, and stopped working when they were too ill to work and came in with covid pneumonia. The big problem being they do home care going round visiting elderly and frail clients. So we did ring up and ask if the health protection team could focus on contacting the clients. We were less concerned about the family contacts (extensive) and midnight mass attendees (also whilst symptomatic).

I wonder whether in other countries people are more co-operative?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-55280321

[Chris_Halkides]

"To do this, they measured multiple components of the immune system, including circulating antibodies, memory B cells, and T cells specific for SARS-CoV-2, in patients with varying levels of disease, for up to eight months after infection."

"While the authors caution that “direct conclusions about protective immunity cannot be made on the basis of [their findings] because mechanisms of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 are not defined in humans,” they also say that several “reasonable interpretations” can be made from their study. These include support for resting immune memory compartments potentially contributing “in meaningful ways to protective immunity against pneumonia or severe secondary COVID-19,” the authors wrote." From a story at Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News. This story summarizes an article recently published in Science.

[pipelineaudio]

Hawaii news is reporting that for sure the UK strain is more infectious and that the south african strain is more resistant to antibody treatment than others

Last I heard from the american society for microbiology, less than a week ago, there was a lot of correlation but nothing sure yet

Anyone have more solid news?

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio

Hawaii news is reporting that for sure the UK strain is more infectious and that the south african strain is more resistant to antibody treatment than others

Last I heard from the american society for microbiology, less than a week ago, there was a lot of correlation but nothing sure yet

Anyone have more solid news?

Still too soon to know for sure.

The only thing I think that's irrefutable is that the UK strain is infecting a lot more kids than the original.

Given the mild positive effect of antibody treatment, that's not too big an issue.

More work definitely needed.

Your place is still going ok, I see. That's good news at least!

[The Atheist]

Here we go, the absolutely perfect example of the level of science being foisted on an ignorant public.

"The protection after infection may last years!" That is good news.

Or is it? "People who recovered from the novel coronavirus may have less than 90 days of immunity."

[Chris_Halkides]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Here we go, the absolutely perfect example of the level of science being foisted on an ignorant public.

"The protection after infection may last years!" That is good news.

Or is it? "People who recovered from the novel coronavirus may have less than 90 days of immunity."

This is the same study in Science (DOI: 10.1126/science.abf4063) that I discussed in comment #323. What the authors wrote seems reasonably circumspect to me, but immunology is not my field.

[The Atheist]

Two consecutive daily new infection records set in the past two days as daily deaths worldwide look to pass 15,000.

It's going to be a nasty few weeks until the vaccine starts to kick in.

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Two consecutive daily new infection records set in the past two days as daily deaths worldwide look to pass 15,000.

It's going to be a nasty few weeks until the vaccine starts to kick in.

Isreal has over 20% vaccinated now. That's the place to watch. They primarily vaccinate elderly, so the effect should be stronger on death rate, rather then infection rate at first. But then change in death rate take longer to manifest, so it's hard to tell, what will show change first.

There is still few weeks before anything has chance to happen though ..

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/

[lionking]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

Isreal has over 20% vaccinated now. That's the place to watch. They primarily vaccinate elderly, so the effect should be stronger on death rate, rather then infection rate at first. But then change in death rate take longer to manifest, so it's hard to tell, what will show change first.

There is still few weeks before anything has chance to happen though ..

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/

Do Orthodox Jews have religious objections to taking the vaccine?

[Dr.Sid]

Originally Posted by lionking

Do Orthodox Jews have religious objections to taking the vaccine?

No idea. I heard calls for no intervention into God's plan from pretty mild Czech Catholics though, so I guess Orthodox Jews will be very much against it. At least publicly.

[lionking]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

No idea. I heard calls for no intervention into God's plan from pretty mild Czech Catholics though, so I guess Orthodox Jews will be very much against it. At least publicly.

I guess my point is that it will be very difficult, if not impossible to reach herd immunity if religious Jews boycotted it.

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by Dr.Sid

No idea. I heard calls for no intervention into God's plan from pretty mild Czech Catholics though, so I guess Orthodox Jews will be very much against it. At least publicly.

Don't forget Polish idiots.

[zooterkin]

Knock off the bickering, ta.

Posted By:zooterkin

[marting]

Ivermectin meta-analysis by Dr. Andrew Hill

Dr. Andrews Hill's Ivermectin meta-analysis, from University of Liverpool, England, supported by The Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator.

https://youtu.be/yOAh7GtvcOs

[Skeptical Greg]

^

Do you think you could share the conclusion or whatever, without forcing us to watch a video?

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg

^

Do you think you could share the conclusion or whatever, without forcing us to watch a video?

You could always try the Daily Fail...

YouTube, the Fail, "leaked" information. None of it sounds very compelling.

https://trialsitenews.com/uks-daily-...r-andrew-hill/

[marting]

https://www.e-bmc.co.uk/

03-01-2021
​
URGENT Covid-19 information for health professionals and policymakers:
Ivermectin reduces the risk of death from COVID-19 - A rapid review and meta-analysis in support of the recommendation of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance

The conclusions are rather strongly stated. Discontinue placebo trials for ethical reasons? That's a pretty high bar.

Conclusions from the report at the link:

* Ivermectin is an essential drug to reduce morbidity and mortality from COVID-19
infection.

* Placebo-controlled trials of ivermectin treatment among people with COVID-19
infection are no longer ethical and active placebo-controlled trials should be closed.


In some quick googling I'm getting a bad feeling about this group. Seems quite new and some of the things they have signed on to are outright weird. Like an anti-5g group and a "rapid Response" BMJ letter opposing expanded influenza vaccines. Anti-vaxer?

https://www.5gspaceappeal.org/signatories-organizations

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4713/rr-1

Not that there's much flu going around but still?

[marting]

Originally Posted by marting

Ivermectin meta-analysis by Dr. Andrew Hill

Dr. Andrews Hill's Ivermectin meta-analysis, from University of Liverpool, England, supported by The Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator.

https://youtu.be/yOAh7GtvcOs

Dr. Andrew Hill reviews RCTs to date on Ivermectin. Is quite optimistic and is awaiting 3 trials due to come out in Jan/Feb. There are quite a large number in progress totalling about 7k people. It's not a very long video- 12min.

[marting]

NEJM Journal Watch:

Ivermectin for COVID-19 — Breakthrough Treatment or Hydroxychloroquine Redux?

by Paul E. Sax, MD
Contributing Editor


https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-obse...ux/2021/01/04/


Excellent overview of the associated biases existing globally as well as from getting burned on HCQ. Basically says we need to seriously look at ivermectin. That it may well be a significant covid-19 treatment.

He ends with this pithy comment:

My take-home view? The clinical trials data for ivermectin look stronger than they ever did for hydroxychloroquine, but we’re not quite yet at the “practice changing” level. Results from at least 5 randomized clinical trials are expected soon that might further inform the decision. NIH treatment guidelines still recommend against use of ivermectin for treatment of COVID-19, a recommendation I support pending further data — we shouldn’t have to wait long.

But we have to guard against two important biases here. First, that because we were burned by hydroxychloroquine means that all other repurposed antiparasitic drugs will fail too.

Second, that studies done in low- and middle-income countries must be discounted because, well, they weren’t done in the right places.

That’s not just bias, it’s also snobbery.

[marting]

Sorting Out Whether Vitamin D Deficiency Raises COVID-19 Risk

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2775003

It's basically discounting Vit. D. effects on Covid-19

"Research findings about vitamin D and COVID-19 have been mixed and sparse"

[dann]

Long Covid: Virus 'like Russian roulette' for young and healthy (BBC, Jan. 12, 2021)

[Chris_Halkides]

Another commenter posted this link to a BBC article about treatments in a different thread.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by marting

Sorting Out Whether Vitamin D Deficiency Raises COVID-19 Risk

Not a lot to back up the headline when their conclusion reads:

Regardless of whether vitamin D protects against COVID-19, adequate levels are important for bone health.

Let's hope some of the clinical trials give us an answer one way or the other.

It continues to amaze me at how poor the standard of research is, and we still don't even have a definitive answer on what the optimum level is.

[marting]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Not a lot to back up the headline when their conclusion reads:

Regardless of whether vitamin D protects against COVID-19, adequate levels are important for bone health.

Let's hope some of the clinical trials give us an answer one way or the other.

It continues to amaze me at how poor the standard of research is, and we still don't even have a definitive answer on what the optimum level is.

Yeah. I think the article showed some bias like this quote:

In a review article published in a different journal the same day as their study, the researchers in Italy concluded that poor vitamin D status appears to be linked to an increased risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but age, sex, and comorbidities seem to play a more important role in COVID-19 severity and mortality.

Really? Factors that are known to increase risk a couple orders of magnitude might be more important? Who would have thunk? Thanks Captain Obvious.

What I've seen to date is evidence D reduces C19 disease but only when it was taken prior to symptoms. It takes quite a while for D to be processed by the liver to be active. And large amounts after that might do nothing or actually be contraindicated.

A big part of the problem is lack of funding for anything repurposed that isn't profitable. Large RCTs are expensive.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by marting

A big part of the problem is lack of funding for anything repurposed that isn't profitable.

That's it in a nutshell. No profit in people going outside in the sun.

What I'd be interested in knowing is what the maximum level of D is in people who work in the sun all day, because there must be a level beyond which the body stops making it. Whatever that number is should be seen as a safe maximum and we could work from there.

[The Atheist]

Meanwhile, as deaths hit a new high yesterday, we're still faced with India's numbers. Either they're the best in the world at reducing the spread of the disease, or their numbers are outright lies.

Take your pick.

[Skeptical Greg]

Perhaps India could share how they are keeping this under control, relatively speaking..

I don't buy it..

Maybe so many have had it, they now have herd immunity.

[marting]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

That's it in a nutshell. No profit in people going outside in the sun.

What I'd be interested in knowing is what the maximum level of D is in people who work in the sun all day, because there must be a level beyond which the body stops making it. Whatever that number is should be seen as a safe maximum and we could work from there.

I keep thinking about two events.

1. The Henderson farms outbreak where, of about 200 migrant workers, none showed symptoms but "all" tested positive. Lots of sunshine exposure. Haven't seen a detailed study of this and it begs for one.

2. The camp outbreak the CDC detailed where 91% of the kids (about 200 high school aged) that hadn't previously been exposed in the past got covid-19 and all showed symptoms. In this case, because a source got sick early in the camp, all people in the camp kept a symptom diary each day. Useful because it resulted in a nice breakdown of a wide range of symptoms.

Talk about night and day.

[No Other]

Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg

Perhaps India could share how they are keeping this under control, relatively speaking..

I don't buy it..

Maybe so many have had it, they now have herd immunity.

Fauci has adjusted his estimation regarding the % of people required to have herd immunity. He has gone from 60-70% to 85%... which pretty much puts Covid-19 on the level of measles.

[RecoveringYuppy]

Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg

Perhaps India could share how they are keeping this under control, relatively speaking..

I don't buy it..

Maybe so many have had it, they now have herd immunity.

In part, they proactively killed off their old people.

Average age of the population in India is 27 vs 38 in the US. Average life expectancy is 69 vs 78.

What specifically don't you buy?

[sphenisc]

Updated cartogram of Covid cases

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

That's it in a nutshell. No profit in people going outside in the sun.

What I'd be interested in knowing is what the maximum level of D is in people who work in the sun all day, because there must be a level beyond which the body stops making it. Whatever that number is should be seen as a safe maximum and we could work from there.

What sun? (Central Europe here...)

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by sphenisc

Updated cartogram of Covid cases

That's amazing.

[The Atheist]

Once again, my mind is boggled.

Way back in March, Cuba & China were using interferons to try to fight the disease, and it seems like it worked fairly well, with this September analysis.

But it seems we're only now moving to a large clinical trial of beta-interferon: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55639096

Seems to me that stringent analysis of an antiviral drug would have been smarter than an anti-parasitic. There will be a great deal of funereal irony if it turns out the world missed an opportunity to save lives due to Cuba being classed as an unfriendly nation.