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Old 13th March 2017, 04:39 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by hecd2 View Post
Perhaps he means his own?
Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
I thank you.
I didn't know bots were capable of sarcasm.
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Old 13th March 2017, 04:42 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Perhaps, then, you should expand and elaborate on the OP, rather than fixating on the unimportant semantics of a brief exchange with one particular poster.
Valid point. I shall ignore irrelevant posts.
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Old 13th March 2017, 05:03 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
I aim to minimize ignorance...
Generally speaking, if you're going to try to minimize ignorance via a forum, you should be focusing on communication, paying close attention to what you're actually saying and to what others are actually saying. Your track record when it comes to both is somewhat horrendous, already. That's before getting to any of the specifics.

As for what ignorance you think that you're minimizing, specifically... do you really think that anyone here isn't well acquainted with the fact that there have been exponential advances with regards to computing technology over the past couple decades and that AI creation has also been advancing very quickly as well, just for starters?
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Old 13th March 2017, 05:20 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
Inferiority complex.

No, I'm sure that isn't your problem.
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Old 13th March 2017, 05:20 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
Valid point. I shall ignore irrelevant posts.
Presumably those you believe are irrelevant?
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Old 13th March 2017, 05:37 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Generally speaking, if you're going to try to minimize ignorance via a forum, you should be focusing on communication, paying close attention to what you're actually saying and to what others are actually saying. Your track record when it comes to both is somewhat horrendous, already. That's before getting to any of the specifics.

As for what ignorance you think that you're minimizing, specifically... do you really think that anyone here isn't well acquainted with the fact that there have been exponential advances with regards to computing technology over the past couple decades and that AI creation has also been advancing very quickly as well, just for starters?
I aim to minimize my ignorance...
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Old 13th March 2017, 05:43 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
........If mankind isn't erased (via some catastrophe), on the horizon of Moore's Law, mankind will probably create machines, with human-level brain power (and relevantly, human-like efficiency)........by at least 2020........
Moore's Law, hey. That one where we get a doubling in performance of silicon chips every two years? The right law, I take it?

OK, well, let's have a look. 2020 is 3 years away. At the moment you're own figures for computer performance has the best of them at 10^14 (somethings), which is one ten-thousandth of the level of humans, again, according to your own figures. Applying Moore's Law to those figures suggest computers will be at around approximately 3 ten-thousandths of that of humans by 2020. In fact, by applying Moore's Law alone, it looks as though it will take computers approx. 15 years to get to that same level, or approx. 2032.

As I probably said before, you just make **** up.
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Old 13th March 2017, 06:42 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Applying Moore's Law to those figures suggest computers will be at around approximately 3 ten-thousandths of that of humans by 2020.
8, surely?

2017 = 1 = 1
2018 = 1 * 2 = 2
2019 = 2 * 2 = 4
2020 = 4 * 2 = 8

Possibly 16, since the 1014 figure was probably derived in 2016.
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Old 13th March 2017, 06:50 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Isn't ignoring anti- ad blockers a triple negative?
That's a quadruple negative, isn't it?
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Old 13th March 2017, 06:52 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
I aim to minimize my ignorance...
Aim harder.
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Old 13th March 2017, 06:54 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Moore's Law, hey. That one where we get a doubling in performance of silicon chips every two years? The right law, I take it?

OK, well, let's have a look. 2020 is 3 years away. At the moment you're own figures for computer performance has the best of them at 10^14 (somethings), which is one ten-thousandth of the level of humans, again, according to your own figures. Applying Moore's Law to those figures suggest computers will be at around approximately 3 ten-thousandths of that of humans by 2020. In fact, by applying Moore's Law alone, it looks as though it will take computers approx. 15 years to get to that same level, or approx. 2032.

As I probably said before, you just make **** up.



(A)
Using Moore's Law equation -> HBS = CMS * 2^n (HBS=human_brain_speed | CMS=current_machine_speed | n = YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/rate | rate = 2)

Using more precise figures (as provided in original post source) we have:

(2*10^15)/(6.4*10^14) = 2^(YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/2)

YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP = 3.28771






(B)
ESTIMATED_YEAR_OF_BRAIN_CHIP = 2017 + 3.28771

Outcome is 2020, roughly.
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Old 13th March 2017, 06:57 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
That's a quadruple negative, isn't it?
Actually you're right...
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Old 13th March 2017, 07:04 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Actually you're right...
LOL
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Old 13th March 2017, 07:06 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
8, surely?

2017 = 1 = 1
2018 = 1 * 2 = 2
2019 = 2 * 2 = 4
2020 = 4 * 2 = 8

Possibly 16, since the 1014 figure was probably derived in 2016.
Well, even if that were the case, it's hardly 10,000, is it. Moore's Law applies to every 2 years*, so I simply assumed this year as the starting year, 2019 as the first doubling, then a bit more for 2020 (I didn't want to bother with log tables).

*It appears you are assuming a doubling every year, not every other year.
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Old 13th March 2017, 07:09 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
http://i.imgur.com/Oz7slzz.jpg

(A)
Using Moore's Law equation -> HBS = CMS * 2^n (HBS=human_brain_speed | CMS=current_machine_speed | n = YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/rate | rate = 2)

Using more precise figures (as provided in original post source) we have:

(2*10^15)/(6.4*10^14) = 2^(YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/2)

YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP = 3.125






(B)
ESTIMATED_YEAR_OF_BRAIN_CHIP = 2017 + 3.125

Outcome is 2020, roughly.
OK, so a doubling every 2 years gets us how far in 3 years?

Righto then. Go away and work out why this nonsense is wrong, then report back here when you know.
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Old 13th March 2017, 07:40 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
OK, so a doubling every 2 years gets us how far in 3 years?

Righto then. Go away and work out why this nonsense is wrong, then report back here when you know.

There was a typo in my answer via reply 91, but I had edited to 3.28 instead of 3.125.
Anyway, we still have 2017+3.28, which gives roughly 2020.





Here is the long workout, to show that I am not "conjuring up any weird fake math process":


FORMULAE : HBS = CMS * 2^n

HBS=human_brain_speed
CMS=current_machine_speed
n = YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/rate
RATE = 2


So,
HBS = 2*10^15
CMS = 6.4*10^14

So,
(2*10^15) = (6.4*10^14) * 2^(YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/2)

(2*10^15)/(6.4*10^14) = ( (6.4*10^14) * 2^(YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/2) )/(6.4*10^14)

(2*10^15)/(6.4*10^14) = 2^(YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/2)

3.125 = root (2^YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP)

YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP = 3.28




So, we roughly have 3.28 + CURRENT_YEAR, which gives us roughly 2020., contrary to your "calculations".
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Old 13th March 2017, 07:42 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
*It appears you are assuming a doubling every year, not every other year.
You're right, I thought it was 1, but it's not.
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Old 13th March 2017, 07:47 AM   #98
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... in any case it seems Moore's law no longer applies as we start to impinge on physical limits.

It's interesting that in the OP there was a factor of somewhere between 100 and 10000 between human brain and machines and yet in ProgrammingGodJordan's calculation that suddenly dropped to a factor of 3

What happened ?
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:00 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
... .....It's interesting that in the OP there was a factor of somewhere between 100 and 10000 between human brain and machines and yet in ProgrammingGodJordan's calculation that suddenly dropped to a factor of 3

What happened ?
He moved the goalposts, hoping no-one would notice.:

Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
..........

HBS=human_brain_speed
CMS=current_machine_speed
n = YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/rate
RATE = 2


So,
HBS = 2*10^15
CMS = 6.4*10^14........
Suddenly, for the purposes of this calculation, humans have the brain power of a chimp. He has altered the figure from (10^16 to 10^18) to 10^15, suddenly meaning we only have to make machines 10 times more powerful to get to our level.

Of course, as having a brain of power 10^18 was a requirement to qualify as a god, he has just completely undermined his humans-are-gods argument. Humans, chimps, dolphins, dogs, pigs and possibly parrots too* now qualify as gods under the new revised criteria.

* I can't be bothered checking.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:14 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Do you understand now that I have already answered the above?

-



Did I say there was? I was being sarcastic.



I simply pointed out how puny this achievement was in comparison with the human brain.

-

You clearly have nothing of substance to say, and to hide your lack of content you will bang on about your supposed confusions with my post until I have explained it 10 different ways. We've all seen this sort of thing done countless times before.
From K for example!!!!!
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:17 AM   #101
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And 13 or so others posting a lot in science!!!!! And all demonstrating either a heavy lack of knowledge of English (especially in terms of grammar but not limited to same!!!) usage, spelling and proper arrangement of words in sentences.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:23 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
He moved the goalposts, hoping no-one would notice.:
Gosh, how unprecedented

Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Suddenly, for the purposes of this calculation, humans have the brain power of a chimp. He has altered the figure from (10^16 to 10^18) to 10^15, suddenly meaning we only have to make machines 10 times more powerful to get to our level.

Of course, as having a brain of power 10^18 was a requirement to qualify as a god, he has just completely undermined his humans-are-gods argument. Humans, chimps, dolphins, dogs, pigs and possibly parrots too* now qualify as gods under the new revised criteria.

* I can't be bothered checking.
Of course regardless of brainpower, cats have always qualified
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:26 AM   #103
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.....and of course Moore's law is not guaranteed to keep on applying:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...dead-now-what/
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:30 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by hecd2 View Post
PGJ, what are you hoping for with these threads? Fame? Recognition? Fortune? Friendship? Admiration? Respect?

I fear that whatever you're hoping for, it won't end well.
It already has functionally ended and as you note. And now it is at least 14.

It's like the people who deny Einstein's formula or Evolution because they just know it/they cannot be correct. But ghosts, psi-powers and Bigfeet have to be there because they believe!!!! And, there is among them a difficulty with English as it is properly written for good understandability!!!

My real question in those cases is do they use the words and write the way they do to obscure purposively or do they truly have a poor understanding of the written language?????
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:32 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
... in any case it seems Moore's law no longer applies as we start to impinge on physical limits.

It's interesting that in the OP there was a factor of somewhere between 100 and 10000 between human brain and machines and yet in ProgrammingGodJordan's calculation that suddenly dropped to a factor of 3

What happened ?
He made up some convenient numbers. If we return to the op as he suggests, then he cites...

Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
(iv)
Mankind has already created brain based models that achieve 10^14 of the above total in (iii).
His citation does not support that but let's run with it.

He also says...
Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
(iii)
The creation of general artificial intelligence is so far, mankind's largely pertinent task, and this involves (i), i.e. optimization.

The human brain computes roughly 10^16 to 10^18 synaptic operations per second.
Since we have a range, let's go at the top end at 1018. Note that 1015 doesn't get a look-in. Why the top end of the range? Because PGJ wants an AI which at minimum equals human capability.

Inserting the values that PGJ claims in his OP we get...

1018/1014 = 2(n/2)

104 = 2(n/2)

10000 = 2(n/2)

Solve for n...

Log2(10000) = n/2

13.3 = n/2 approx.

n = 26.6 years.

All of which ignores the limitations of Moore's Law.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:37 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
... in any case it seems Moore's law no longer applies as we start to impinge on physical limits.

It's interesting that in the OP there was a factor of somewhere between 100 and 10000 between human brain and machines and yet in ProgrammingGodJordan's calculation that suddenly dropped to a factor of 3

What happened ?

The original post pointed to sources, containing the precise values used.

Sources will vary human brain speed from roughly 10^16 to 10^18 synaptic operations per second.

This is why I used the word roughly in the original post.

So, at minimum, we have roughly 10^15, which yields alt least 3 years, which outputd 2020 at least.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:42 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
Since we have a range, let's go at the top end at 1018. Note that 1015 doesn't get a look-in. Why the top end of the range? Because PGJ wants an AI which at minimum equals human capability.

Inserting the values that PGJ claims in his OP we get...

1018/1014 = 2(n/2)

104 = 2(n/2)

10000 = 2(n/2)

Solve for n...

Log2(10000) = n/2

13.3 = n/2 approx.

n = 26.6 years.

All of which ignores the limitations of Moore's Law.

(A)
The calculation with minimum brain speed (instead of maximum) yields 3 years roughly.

Keep in mind the original post expressed AT LEAST 2020.

HINT: Replace 10^18 with 10^15 roughly.




(B)
If one can read well, one will observe the values in the citation. (So I didn't need to conjure up numbers)

Moore's law runs out roughly a little while after 2020, the minimum calculations align with Moore's law.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:45 AM   #108
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A factor 10 is not 'roughly'. I wouldn't call something operating at 10% human ability 'human level'.
You're makling up your own definitions again, because you've been caught lying.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:48 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by Porpoise of Life View Post
A factor 10 is not 'roughly'. I wouldn't call something operating at 10% human ability 'human level'.
You're makling up your own definitions again, because you've been caught lying.
What are your estimations for the human brain speed?

Link your sources, then do the calculations on the minimum.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:50 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
I aim to minimize my ignorance...
Hmm? Truly? What if I pointed out that Moore's Law is actually about the number of transistors, not speed?

Or that -

Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
HBS=human_brain_speed
CMS=current_machine_speed
n = YEARS_TILL_BRAIN_CHIP/rate
RATE = 2


So,
HBS = 2*10^15
CMS = 6.4*10^14
Disagrees significantly with the range that you cited in your OP?

Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
(iii)
The creation of general artificial intelligence is so far, mankind's largely pertinent task, and this involves (i), i.e. optimization.

The human brain computes roughly 10^16 to 10^18 synaptic operations per second.
An order of magnitude off, at the minimum, notably changes things. Especially when transistors are likely to hit the atomic level in size and be able to shrink no further rather soon, by some estimates, ~2020... and assuming that economic forces don't prevent them from getting there because of prohibitive cost increases.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:50 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
(A)
The calculation with minimum brain speed (instead of maximum) yields 3 years roughly.

Keep in mind the original post expressed AT LEAST 2020.

HINT: Replace 10^18 with 10^15 roughly.
Nope. 1015 is well outside your claimed range of 1016 to 1018.

Furthermore, since you are suggesting an AI at least equal to human level, we must perforce use the maximum figure. Otherwise, your suggested 1015 figure is one thousandth what humans are capable of.

Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
(B)
If one can read well, one will observe the values in the citation.
I intentionally quoted your numbers from the OP so that you could not dodge.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:52 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
Nope. 1015 is well outside your claimed range of 1016 to 1018.

Furthermore, since you are suggesting an AI at least equal to human level, we must perforce use the maximum figure. Otherwise, your suggested 1015 figure is one thousandth what humans are capable of.

I intentionally quoted your numbers from the OP so that you could not dodge.

10^15 is listed in the source of the original post

Roughly 10^16 was mentioned, and precise values are in the original post Wikipedia links
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:54 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
What are your estimations for the human brain speed?

Link your sources, then do the calculations on the minimum.
Sorry, no. We are working from YOUR claims.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:58 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
10^15 is listed in the source of the original post

Roughly 10^16 was mentioned, and precise values are in the original post Wikipedia links
Which link are you talking about? The one to http:// or the one to a wikipedia page that doesn't exist, apparently?
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:58 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Hmm? Truly? What if I pointed out that Moore's Law is actually about the number of transistors, not speed?

Or that -



Disagrees significantly with the range that you cited in your OP?
(A)
The artificial synapses correspond with the speed.


(B)
The values mentioned in original post were rough.

Anyways, I was careful to point to original sources, with the precise values.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:59 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
Sorry, no. We are working from YOUR claims.
See the Wikipedia links, for the precise values linked in original post.
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Old 13th March 2017, 08:59 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
Sources will vary human brain speed from roughly 10^16 to 10^18 synaptic operations per second.


.........So, at minimum, we have roughly 10^15, which yields alt least 3 years, which outputd 2020 at least.[/u][/b]
Your own claim, which we were working on, was 10^16 to 10^18.

10^15 is not roughly 10^16, nor even faintly 10^18, being one tenth the former, and one thousandth of the latter.

A goldfish is roughly human by that yardstick.
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Old 13th March 2017, 09:01 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Which link are you talking about? The one to http:// or the one to a wikipedia page that doesn't exist, apparently?
It appears that was a typo that put two links in one.


Right click and inspect the 10^18 link to see both links in one line.
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Old 13th March 2017, 09:02 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
10^15 is listed in the source of the original post

Roughly 10^16 was mentioned, and precise values are in the original post Wikipedia links
Where? I can find 2 wiki links in your OP, one explaining orders of magnitude, the other exascale computing. Neither of them mentions synaptic operations per second.
The first one (you've botched your link by the way) does mention the number of synapses in the brain, but that is not the same.
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Old 13th March 2017, 09:02 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
10^15 is listed in the source of the original post

Roughly 10^16 was mentioned, and precise values are in the original post Wikipedia links
Here is the OP. Please point out that figure.

Originally Posted by ProgrammingGodJordan View Post
(i)
Life's meaning probably occurs on the horizon of optimization:

(source: mit physicist, Jeremy England proposes new meaning of life)

(ii)
Today, artificial intelligence exceeds mankind in many human, cognitive tasks:

(source: can we build ai without losing control over it?)

(source: the wonderful and terrifying implications of computers that can learn)

(iii)
The creation of general artificial intelligence is so far, mankind's largely pertinent task, and this involves (i), i.e. optimization.

The human brain computes roughly 10^16 to 10^18 synaptic operations per second.

(iv)
Mankind has already created brain based models that achieve 10^14 of the above total in (iii).

If mankind isn't erased (via some catastrophe), on the horizon of Moore's Law, mankind will probably create machines, with human-level brain power (and relevantly, human-like efficiency), by at least 2020.

(v)
Using clues from from quantum mechanics, and modern machine learning, I have composed (am composing) a naive fabric in aims of absorbing some non-trivial intelligence's basis.

Paper + Starting Code (rudimentary): "thought curvature"

(vi)
Criticism is welcome/needed.
BTW, you totally borked your wiki links, but they don't mention such a figure either. Except for this one. Which simply doesn't have anything to do with synaptic anything. And this one, which cites 1018 as comparable to the human brain.
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