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Tags Coronavirus , vaccination , vaccines

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Old 13th October 2021, 05:12 PM   #121
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Quote:
This is then used to genuinely argue that at a vitamin D concentration of ~50ng/ml there is a theoretical point of zero mortality
I remember seeing that study and thinking extrapolating a linear regression to 50ng/ml meant no mortality was rather funny. Found the correlation with increased D levels interesting but that's been known for a long time. Correlation isn't causation. But it is a reason to investigate the correlation. Haven't seen anything really good that has done that. There was a "natural experiment" over a year ago in French nursing homes which looked promising. They were supposed to have expanded their work with results earlier this year but I didn't see anything. Pretty typical when something doesn't pan out. They just ghost.
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Old 13th October 2021, 05:16 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yeah, there were some good explanations of how they analyszed the patient data, some of it was subtle such as the trailing digit analysis, which I had not heard of before,
I've run across that sort of thing in forensic accounting. We are lucky so many fraudsters skipped their stats classes.
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Old 14th October 2021, 04:15 PM   #123
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Some new details on transmissibility of Delta for fully vaccinated.

OVID vaccines cut the risk of transmitting Delta — but not for long

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

Quote:
The authors found that although the vaccines did offer some protection against infection and onward transmission, Delta dampened that effect. A person who was fully vaccinated and then had a ‘breakthrough’ Delta infection was almost twice as likely to pass on the virus as someone who was infected with Alpha. And that was on top of the higher risk of having a breakthrough infection caused by Delta than one caused by Alpha.
...
“There’s a step-change with Alpha versus Delta, but then there’s also a change over time,” says co-author David Eyre, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford, UK. The results “possibly explain why we’ve seen so much onward transmission of Delta despite widespread vaccination”
This is how you spell endemic. We all have a date with Delta. Get vaccinated.
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Old 14th October 2021, 07:26 PM   #124
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CDC has started reporting vaccine breakthrough cases with time, demographics and vaccinated/unvaccinated comparisons. 16 jurisdictions representing 30% of the USA population report the underlying data. Includes cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Info consistent with other recent studies.

Overall datatracker
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...tatracker-home

Vaccine effectiveness
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...-effectiveness
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Old 15th October 2021, 02:07 AM   #125
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So booster shots for Pfizer have been approved, and boosters for Moderna and J&J are expected to be approved soon. Question: So if we need -- or at least would benefit from -- a booster six to eight months after the original vaccination, what happens later? Will we need a covid booster every year, or maybe even twice a year?
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Old 15th October 2021, 02:21 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
So booster shots for Pfizer have been approved, and boosters for Moderna and J&J are expected to be approved soon. Question: So if we need -- or at least would benefit from -- a booster six to eight months after the original vaccination, what happens later? Will we need a covid booster every year, or maybe even twice a year?
I'd say that the short answer is that we don't know yet. It's very plausible that those most at risk will need such, but once it becomes endemic, general risks will likely decline.

On a quick look, Nature has an article that goes more in depth on this issue, either way.

The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means
A Nature survey shows many scientists expect the virus that causes COVID-19 to become endemic, but it could pose less danger over time.
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Old 15th October 2021, 02:54 AM   #127
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COVID super-immunity: one of the pandemic’s great puzzles
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Old 15th October 2021, 10:58 PM   #128
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Does anyone remember the study out of Israel that was mentioned in Science that concluded that natural immunity was about 13 times better than vaccine immunity?

Anyway, I just saw this critique of it and the issue of "survivorship bias" came up. I'm not sure I fully grok it, but here's the food for thought:

https://echo360.org/media/df6327b6-1...aedef8e/public
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Old 17th October 2021, 11:02 AM   #129
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Interesting paper on the scientific discourse around aerosol v droplet/fomite transmission as interpretted by Pierre Bourdieu's sociological views.

Orthodoxy, illusio, and playing the scientific game: a Bourdieusian analysis of infection control science in the COVID-19 pandemic

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-126


Quote:
Scientific and policy bodies’ failure to acknowledge and act on the evidence base for airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a timely way is both a mystery and a scandal. In this study, we applied theories from Bourdieu to address the question, “How was a partial and partisan scientific account of SARS-CoV-2 transmission constructed and maintained, leading to widespread imposition of infection control policies which de-emphasised airborne transmission?”.
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Old Yesterday, 04:14 AM   #130
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Update on the current situation in Japan:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Infections peaked here at 183/million in late August, but have decreased a lot since then and are now only 4/million. That's almost 98% down from the peak. Remains to be seen if there will be a rebound, but I'm not yet seeing signs of a rebound.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

I would imagine that logically, there will likely be a rebound like they had in Israel, since it won't go to zero.

One difference though is that everyone here is still masking (but they were masking during the last wave too, so maybe that doesn't make a huge difference).
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Old Yesterday, 04:18 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Update on the current situation in Japan:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Infections peaked here at 183/million in late August, but have decreased a lot since then and are now only 4/million. That's almost 98% down from the peak. Remains to be seen if there will be a rebound, but I'm not yet seeing signs of a rebound.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

I would imagine that logically, there will likely be a rebound like they had in Israel, since it won't go to zero.

One difference though is that everyone here is still masking (but they were masking during the last wave too, so maybe that doesn't make a huge difference).
I think it could be masking+vaccine (following the state of emergency) which has brought the numbers down.
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Old Yesterday, 11:13 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Infections peaked here at 183/million in late August, but have decreased a lot since then and are now only 4/million. That's almost 98% down from the peak. Remains to be seen if there will be a rebound, but I'm not yet seeing signs of a rebound.
I think I might have to resurrect the Territorial Anomaly thread, because what's happened in Japan is really surprising.

Are people still travelling crammed in trains, etc?
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Old Yesterday, 04:47 PM   #133
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I think I might have to resurrect the Territorial Anomaly thread, because what's happened in Japan is really surprising.

Are people still travelling crammed in trains, etc?
I usually take the busiest Osaka subway line during rush hour, and I would say that the trains are still pretty crowded although not to the extent of the white-gloved guys cramming people into the carriage.

What you will definitely see is approximately 100% of passengers wearing masks, including kids. There may occasionally be a single person in a train car without one, but from leaving my house to getting to work, almost everyone I see is masked, and yes, that includes people driving in their cars, people on bicycles etc...

I don't necessarily think the masking is making the whole difference but it might be symptomatic of the caution people are taking with the virus. I am pretty sure that vaccination rates have made a huge difference, and then combined with strictly adhered to baseline policies of masking, and following the 3 Cs has had an impact.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old Yesterday, 04:54 PM   #134
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New preprint study on Puerto Rico where they apparently have kept track of vaccinations, dates, and covid cases unlike all too many States in the USA. Puerto Rico is a USA territory.

Time-varying effectiveness of the mRNA-1273, BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths: an analysis based on observational data from Puerto Rico

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....17.21265101v1

Quote:
Background We collected hospitalization, death, and vaccination status data for all 86,488 laboratory- confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in Puerto Rico since the first COVID-19 vaccine was administered starting on December 15, 2020 and ending September 24, 2021. Using these data we estimated real-world time-varying effectiveness of the mRNA-1273 (Moderna), BNT162b2 (Pfizer), and Ad26.COV2.S (J & J) COVID-19 vaccines to quantify the public health benefits of Puerto Rico's immunization campaign.
...
After four months, effectiveness waned to about 73%, 58%, and 32% for mRNA-1273, BNT162b2, and Ad26.COV2.S, respectively. All vaccines had a lower effectiveness for those over 85 years, with the decrease in effectiveness particularly low for the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine.
...
We found no clear evidence that effectiveness was different after the Delta variant became dominant.
Oh, and I especially appreciate them making the data (and program to reconstruct the report) on Github. https://github.com/rafalab/vax-eff-pr

dat_vax.rda includes de-indentified vacination information: age strata, gender, vaccine manufacturer and date of doses

dat_cases_vax.rda includes de-indentified information for SARS-CoV-2. It incldues date of infection, age strata, gender, hospitalization (logical), hospitalization date, death (logical), date of death, date of dose 1, date of dose 2, and vaccine manufacturer.

population-tabs.rda includes estimates of population size by age.
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Old Yesterday, 06:20 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I think I might have to resurrect the Territorial Anomaly thread, because what's happened in Japan is really surprising.

Are people still travelling crammed in trains, etc?
I took a train to work this morning, and it was not exactly "crammed". Quite full, yes, but not like some of those old-timey videos you see where the conductors had to give people a push in order to close the doors. Now you have some personal space.

More train lines have been built, and the demographic trends are toward fewer working people. And also now it is possible for some people to work from home.

At my company most people were working from home during the state of emergency, which ended at the end of September.

After the state of emergency ended, Tokyo went to "rebound prevention measures", which is like a lighter version of the state of emergency. Now, whereas I had been working from home every day during the state of emergency, I commute 2 days out of 5, and work from home on the other days. The "rebound prevention measures" are scheduled to expire on October 24th. Then, assuming they aren't extended, I think we will go to commuting 4 days/week and working at home on 1 day.

ETA: also, they ventilate the trains pretty well. Either several windows are open in each car, or for some new models, I think they have a direct ventilation system.
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Old Yesterday, 06:36 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I took a train to work this morning, and it was not exactly "crammed". Quite full, yes, but not like some of those old-timey videos you see where the conductors had to give people a push in order to close the doors. Now you have some personal space.

More train lines have been built, and the demographic trends are toward fewer working people. And also now it is possible for some people to work from home.

At my company most people were working from home during the state of emergency, which ended at the end of September.

After the state of emergency ended, Tokyo went to "rebound prevention measures", which is like a lighter version of the state of emergency. Now, whereas I had been working from home every day during the state of emergency, I commute 2 days out of 5, and work from home on the other days. The "rebound prevention measures" are scheduled to expire on October 24th. Then, assuming they aren't extended, I think we will go to commuting 4 days/week and working at home on 1 day.
Yeah, I am glad that Japan has finally got its act together with working from home and using tech to enable that. One of the big issues at the beginning of the pandemic were that paperwork mostly had to be literally stamped with a hanko (name deal) and many students had no access to computers, teachers and professors didn’t know how to use them and were blindsided by the idea that they would have to change their teaching style from chalk and talk, and handing out endless worksheets for marking to suddenly having to use digital content. Two years in and finally university students now have their own laptops and are not relying on the family’s ancient desktop and internet explorer, etc…
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old Yesterday, 07:51 PM   #137
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That tends to look like a careful population being very careful.

Sensible option. Pity the rest of the world will completely ignore it.

Thanks guys!
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Old Yesterday, 08:17 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That tends to look like a careful population being very careful.

Sensible option. Pity the rest of the world will completely ignore it.

Thanks guys!
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
ETA: also, they ventilate the trains pretty well. Either several windows are open in each car, or for some new models, I think they have a direct ventilation system.
Yeah, speaking of that, it does seem that whereas the "washing your hands" thing seemed to be a big talking point in the UK and elsewhere, Japan was treating it as an airborne-ish disease from pretty early on. The 3 Cs of trying to avoid crowded places, confined spaces and close-contact settings seems to have worked pretty well, so while the trains are still pretty crowded they are a) ventilated and b) people just don't tend to talk on them. So that means while it violates one of the three Cs it doesn't violate the other two, and it is when you have them overlapping that the risks apparently increase.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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