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Old 8th December 2020, 07:18 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
A cautionary tale about the rush to produce the first polio vaccines:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/07/...l-meier-polio/

And why we have independent batch release mechanisms now.


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Old 8th December 2020, 07:36 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
And why we have independent batch release mechanisms now.

I think the broader point is that stuff can go wrong when there's pressure to rush. Also from the link:
Quote:
.....
Once vaccine distribution begins, there must be rigorous monitoring and side effect reporting, since vaccine trials, even those as large as Moderna’s and Pfizer’s, can never be large enough to identify all rare side effects. The National Vaccine Program Office, which once provided this oversight, was dismantled by the Trump administration last year.
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Old 8th December 2020, 10:58 AM   #83
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Replying to my own earlier question about taking two vaccines: apparantly it's a serious suggestion, once two are approved, to try taking one dose of each, rather than two of the same, and this might work better. (Why you know it's safe, knowing each is safe separately, is not so clear to me. But I suppose the safety testing involves/should involve checking safety in people who already have antibodies.)

BBC article here.
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Old 8th December 2020, 01:30 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by Meridian View Post
Replying to my own earlier question about taking two vaccines: apparantly it's a serious suggestion, once two are approved, to try taking one dose of each, rather than two of the same, and this might work better. (Why you know it's safe, knowing each is safe separately, is not so clear to me. But I suppose the safety testing involves/should involve checking safety in people who already have antibodies.)

BBC article here.
The vaccines that have been released so far are designed and tested to produce best results with two doses scheduled within a narrow window. There apparently is no medical reason why you couldn't take one full treatment, then another down the road, if it becomes available and if for some reason it might be better, like producing longer immunity. But I can't why this would be the time to experiment on yourself. Note that your link reports the beginning of a study; it's not a conclusion, let alone a recommendation.
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Old 8th December 2020, 04:41 PM   #85
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It would be a better beginning if our fearless leader had not passed on the suggestion to buy more vaccine.

May be a paywall, but....

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...es-report.html
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Old 8th December 2020, 04:57 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
Thanks arthwollipot!

To be very honest, I did NOT understand all of that! But that's entirely on my lack of basic knowledge (and on having forgotten what little about all of this they'd teach us back in school!), and does not reflect on your cool summarizing itself.

There's only so much you can spoon-feed someone, without that someone doing some forking up from the buffet themselves, but what, would you say, is the one essential difference between mRNA vaccines and the regular vaccines, in terms of what they ARE? (As opposed to these ancilliary things like the temperature and the efficacy and et cetera?)





That's the generic "I", right? I can see why, all of those reasons that have to do with the refrigeration, and the cost, and all of that.

Or do you mean that you yourself, given the mRNA thing and the more conventional Oxford thing, would prefer to go with the Oxford product, despite their lower efficacy? Why would you say that (if at all that's what you're saying)?
No it is a specific I. (Me, myself) I do not think I will have a choice of vaccine. At some point I will come to the top of the list and just be given the vaccine the hospital happens to have that day, but I am certainly not agitating to be vaccinated with Pfizer vaccine, but because I am in a 'high risk' hospital role I suspect I am going to be vaccinated fairly soon and with the Pfizer vaccine. Because of role model issues I feel obliged to enthusiastically accept whatever vaccine I am offered.

FWIW I'd rather go with a good solid British vaccine even if theoretically less effective than some fancy high tech German vaccine that stops working if you so much as look at it*.

Without direct comparisons knowing about differences in efficacy is difficult. E.g. the AZ / Oxford vaccine used meningitis vaccine as the control. We have seen how there is some evidence of non specific benefit from vaccines e.g. MMR so this vaccine may look less good because the 'placebo' actually had some preventive effects. Also the AZ / Oxford vaccine was the only one to routinely swab to detect asymptomatic cases so the trial may have detected asymptomatic cases in the vaccine group that would not have been detected in trials for the mRNA vaccines. Until we have fairly detailed results of the vaccine trials published it is hard to know how comparable outcomes are.

*This is an exaggeration, but bang it around and it stops working.
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Old 8th December 2020, 05:40 PM   #87
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It may be the end for the rest of the world, but I forecast a lot of protest in the USA. "I have the right not to get the vaccine and get Covid 19 instead and pass it on to people who are not immune."

The correct response to people like that is for the Government to say "We are using our right to tax you heavily."
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Old 8th December 2020, 06:14 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
It would be a better beginning if our fearless leader had not passed on the suggestion to buy more vaccine.

May be a paywall, but....

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...es-report.html
Water under the bridge. People are gearing up for the vaccinations to start. I got a message from Kaiser what the plan is. The state has approved of providers who can administer the vaccine. In Denver, Colorado, they are making dry runs with the dry ice to see if they can get the vaccine to a mountain hospital (which is odd because there is an airport in Craig and I would think it was shorter from there east than from Denver west).
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Old 8th December 2020, 06:17 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
It may be the end for the rest of the world, but I forecast a lot of protest in the USA. "I have the right not to get the vaccine and get Covid 19 instead and pass it on to people who are not immune."

The correct response to people like that is for the Government to say "We are using our right to tax you heavily."
Oh yeah, the news media's got to dig up controversy.

That is so far off. Get the vaccine out as fast as it can be to people who need and want it. Those people who are making a fuss are nothing but media fodder at the moment.
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Old 8th December 2020, 06:38 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
I think the broader point is that stuff can go wrong when there's pressure to rush. Also from the link:
I'm having a hard time tracking the specifics down of "The National Vaccine Program Office" that Trump supposedly shut down. I know he shut down the pandemic planning department and whatever that entailed.

But I've never heard of The National Vaccine Program Office. Doesn't mean there wasn't one but it not easy to find outside of that Stat article and the link in the link doesn't go to a page that describes that office.

We have the ACIP and that's still in place. And AFAIK we still have the VAERS program and the Vaccine Injury Compensation Fund.

I'd really like to know what the The National Vaccine Program Office was and how did it differ from the pandemic planning department which Trump dismantled.

That whole article talks about the polio vaccine problems but if there ever was a The National Vaccine Program Office I don't understand how that could have been in operation and in my 30+ years of doing this work I never heard of it. They couldn't have been doing that much. Maybe it was folded into other departments.

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Old 8th December 2020, 07:03 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I'd really like to know what the The National Vaccine Program Office was and how did it differ from the pandemic planning department which Trump dismantled.

My guess is it's the same thing. "National vaccine program office" could have started out as someone's description of the pandemic planning task force, and then got misinterpreted as a proper name. Kind of like when your elderly relative tries to find the web site for The Phone Company.
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Old 8th December 2020, 07:32 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
My guess is it's the same thing. "National vaccine program office" could have started out as someone's description of the pandemic planning task force, and then got misinterpreted as a proper name. Kind of like when your elderly relative tries to find the web site for The Phone Company.
https://web.archive.org/web/20111019172420/http://www.tpc.int/

For the next time they ask for The Phone Company’s website.
HTH
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Old 8th December 2020, 07:41 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
My guess is it's the same thing. "National vaccine program office" could have started out as someone's description of the pandemic planning task force, and then got misinterpreted as a proper name. Kind of like when your elderly relative tries to find the web site for The Phone Company.
No, that guess makes no sense.

Pandemic planning pretty much emerged with all the deadly influenza sputtering, with SARS 1 and maybe the ebola scare spurred it along.

Vaccine tragedies were never part of modern pandemic planning despite the polio, measles, and small pox tragedies in the past for which vaccines were the magic cure.

H5N1HPAI was the first recent pandemic scare, in 1997 I think but I might have the year wrong. That's when people, in this country anyway, started thinking seriously that we really should start planning for another 1918 flu pandemic.

Sadly, Trump's desire to dismantle anything Obama included tearing up the pandemic plan.
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Old 8th December 2020, 07:45 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
https://web.archive.org/web/20111019172420/http://www.tpc.int/

For the next time they ask for The Phone Company’s website.
HTH
The Wayback doesn't get a clear hit for the National Vaccine Program Office

Nice link though!
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Old 8th December 2020, 07:52 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
The Wayback doesn't get a clear hit for the National Vaccine Program Office

Nice link though!
Just for you
https://www.hhs.gov/vaccines/about/nvpoat30/index.html

In 2017, the National Vaccine Program Office (NVPO) marked 30 years of providing strategic leadership to improve the vaccination system. NVPO coordinates and ensures collaboration of federal partners and external stakeholders from across the immunization enterprise around vaccines and immunization activity.
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Old 8th December 2020, 09:06 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Water under the bridge. People are gearing up for the vaccinations to start. I got a message from Kaiser what the plan is. The state has approved of providers who can administer the vaccine. In Denver, Colorado, they are making dry runs with the dry ice to see if they can get the vaccine to a mountain hospital (which is odd because there is an airport in Craig and I would think it was shorter from there east than from Denver west).
Yes everyone is getting geared up for vaccinations, and the providers are taking it very seriously, but wouldn't it be nicer if there were enough vaccine?
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Old 8th December 2020, 10:36 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I'm having a hard time tracking the specifics down of "The National Vaccine Program Office" that Trump supposedly shut down. I know he shut down the pandemic planning department and whatever that entailed.

But I've never heard of The National Vaccine Program Office. Doesn't mean there wasn't one but it not easy to find outside of that Stat article and the link in the link doesn't go to a page that describes that office.
....

Maybe this?
Quote:
The National Vaccine Program Office (NVPO) is an office of the United States Department of Health and Human Services that plays a role in the coordination of vaccine policy.[1]

It was established by the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act. On October 24, 2020, the New York Times asserted that the Trump administration essentially eliminated the role of the program when it closed the office in 2019.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...Program_Office

Quote:
The next job will be to monitor the safety of vaccines once they’re in widespread use. But the administration last year quietly disbanded the office with the expertise for exactly this job, merging it into an office focused on infectious diseases. Its elimination has left that long-term safety effort for coronavirus vaccines fragmented among federal agencies, with no central leadership, experts say.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/h...ne-safety.html
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Old 8th December 2020, 11:07 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
A cautionary tale about the rush to produce the first polio vaccines:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/07/...l-meier-polio/
This is one reason why I want to wait a few months before I get the vaccine. There is no point in me getting a vaccine if it can be shown it does not work very well. March would be a good time to get it. In time for winter.

There is no rush for Australia to start. There has been only one locally acquired case in Australia and that was a quarantine breach. What is scary is that there have been about 10 cases per day from people who have just entered Australia. This explains to me why some people overseas are saying "Get me back into Australia, money is no object."
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Old 9th December 2020, 12:26 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Just for you
https://www.hhs.gov/vaccines/about/nvpoat30/index.html

In 2017, the National Vaccine Program Office (NVPO) marked 30 years of providing strategic leadership to improve the vaccination system. NVPO coordinates and ensures collaboration of federal partners and external stakeholders from across the immunization enterprise around vaccines and immunization activity.
Thanks. I can see why I've never heard of this office. That description is incredibly vague. It consists of 17 people? They get travel expenses but I don't think they're paid, the budget is relatively small.

Nowhere on the page do I see any reference to the ACIP: Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices.

It seems like a minor office.

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Old 9th December 2020, 12:30 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Maybe this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...Program_Office

Quote:
National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act...
That Act I'm familiar with. It established the Vaccine Injury Fund. The purpose is to address vaccine injuries that are rare but expected to occur. The diseases are riskier than the vaccine risk, but the vaccine risk is not zero.
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Old 9th December 2020, 01:56 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
This is one reason why I want to wait a few months before I get the vaccine.
I'm thinking along those lines myself.

We have no Covid in either community, so the only result of getting vaccinated now is putting yourself at the top of the list of losing protection.

If the vaccine gives 12 months' protection - and we still have no idea how long the it lasts - it would be wearing off at about the very time we'd be importing cases into the community.

I reckon the start of next winter is about right down here.
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Old 9th December 2020, 03:14 AM   #102
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I prefer Churchill's take - this is the end of the beginning.
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Old 9th December 2020, 05:05 AM   #103
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While it's nice that the vaccines are coming and that will hopefully stop the spread if it wasn't for Trump and the right-winger nuts anti-science actions, and people that seemed to think that the economy was more important than people, this pandemic would have been over and done with 6 months ago.
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Old 9th December 2020, 05:12 AM   #104
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English regulator has issued an advisory regarding the Pfizer vaccine:

Quote:
...snip...

Covid-19 vaccine: Allergy warning over new jab https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55244122

People with a history of significant allergic reactions should not have the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid jab, regulators say.

...snip...
Nothing unusual but of course people will get the wrong end of the stick. “Allergy” has to be one of the most misunderstood and misused symptoms by us regular folk. This will have all these “oh I’ve an allergy to...” worried well thinking it applies to them.
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Old 9th December 2020, 09:36 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
English regulator has issued an advisory regarding the Pfizer vaccine:
It's goodbye to that vaccine, then.

Given the already-low rates of people wanting to take a vaccine, this happening on the very first day of vaccination will spell the end.

How the hell that this was not known from the 15,000 who received the vaccine during testing concerns me more than the news itself.

ETA:

Quote:
The medical regulatory agency also said vaccinations should not be carried out in facilities that don’t have resuscitation equipment.
If the allergy wasn't bad enough, that's a terrible position to be in.

"Hmmm, shall I go get a vaccine that looks like it could kill me instantly, or keep wearing a mask?"
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Old 9th December 2020, 10:21 AM   #106
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And if there are questions about the Pfizer vaccine, the Russian Sputnik is an absolute no-way-no-how-never shot.

Quote:
“The intake of alcohol needs to stop at least two weeks prior to immunization,” Popova said in an interview with Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda.

Recipients should then abstain from alcohol for “42 days after the first injection,”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/...ipients-a72280
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Old 9th December 2020, 10:47 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
English regulator has issued an advisory regarding the Pfizer vaccine:

Nothing unusual but of course people will get the wrong end of the stick. “Allergy” has to be one of the most misunderstood and misused symptoms by us regular folk. This will have all these “oh I’ve an allergy to...” worried well thinking it applies to them.

It doesn't sound like something to take lightly:
Quote:
LONDON — After two health-care workers reacted adversely to the first dose of the new Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, British regulators on Wednesday ordered hospitals not to give the shots to people who have a history of "significant" allergic reactions.
....
Two staffers with Britain’s National Health Service manifested symptoms of “anaphylactoid reaction” after receiving the vaccinations at a hospital on Tuesday.

NHS officials said both workers have a history of serious allergies and carry epinephrine injectors — often called EpiPens — for the emergency treatment of acute reactions, which can include rashes, low blood pressure, constricted airways and dizziness or fainting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...0c4_story.html

Even if a severe reaction is no more common than for a flu shot, allergies still have to be screened for. If one person dies from a covid shot, it will be catastrophic for the whole program.

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Old 9th December 2020, 10:52 AM   #108
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A guide to interpreting announcements about vaccine test results:
Quote:
If the past is any guide, there will be plenty of errors, misunderstandings, and communication snafus in coverage, as well as active disinformation campaigns on both sides to boost hype or spread fear. Here are three tricky or misleading claims to keep an eye on:
https://www.wired.com/story/new-vacc...899_popular4-1
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Old 9th December 2020, 11:13 AM   #109
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Questions raised about AstraZeneca research:
Quote:
Instead, Oxford-AstraZeneca’s data came out of two separate studies: one in the UK that began in May, and another in Brazil, which got started at the end of June. These two studies were substantially different from one another: They didn’t have standardized dosing schemes across the trials, for one thing, nor did they provide the same “control” injections to volunteers who were not getting the experimental Covid vaccine. The fact that they may have had to combine data from two trials in order to get a strong enough result raises the first red flag.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-astr...804898_cral2-2
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Old 9th December 2020, 12:14 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
English regulator has issued an advisory regarding the Pfizer vaccine:



Nothing unusual but of course people will get the wrong end of the stick. “Allergy” has to be one of the most misunderstood and misused symptoms by us regular folk. This will have all these “oh I’ve an allergy to...” worried well thinking it applies to them.
Both of these were serious reactions, in people with a history of significant allergic reactions. The marker being the need to carry an epipen. These appear to be non-allergic (anaphylactoid) reactions rather than allergic (anaphylactic) reactions. This is a bit worse because you cannot just attribute it to e.g. egg allergy. Sometimes these are markers of manufacturing issues. However locally we have decided to delay roll out to non-health care centres until risk is clearer. To have two reactions on the first day of vaccinating is not good.
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Old 9th December 2020, 12:27 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Questions raised about AstraZeneca research:

https://www.wired.com/story/the-astr...804898_cral2-2
Alternatively they have four studies (two in UK and there is also a South African one) all of which individually meet the evidence required for licensing, all of which show a similar level of benefit. So the benefit has been shown in duplicate studies, I suspect a negative propaganda action here turning what is in fact a strength of having multiple studies all showing benefit in to an attempt to undermine vaccination.

But since this is the only vaccine to have published its results in a peer reviewed journal you can look for yourself and not rely on commentators.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...623-4/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...661-1/fulltext

The exciting data to come is that in the UK people were swabbed weekly so this is the first vaccine for which we should know whether it potentially stops transmission or does it just prevent illness but leave people with asymptomatic transmissible infections.
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Old 9th December 2020, 02:36 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Alternatively they have four studies (two in UK and there is also a South African one) all of which individually meet the evidence required for licensing, all of which show a similar level of benefit. So the benefit has been shown in duplicate studies, I suspect a negative propaganda action here turning what is in fact a strength of having multiple studies all showing benefit in to an attempt to undermine vaccination.

But since this is the only vaccine to have published its results in a peer reviewed journal you can look for yourself and not rely on commentators.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...623-4/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...661-1/fulltext

The exciting data to come is that in the UK people were swabbed weekly so this is the first vaccine for which we should know whether it potentially stops transmission or does it just prevent illness but leave people with asymptomatic transmissible infections.
The Wired report appears more intent on undermining the Astra Zeneca vaccine compared to the pfizer vaccine than undermining vaccines completely. Note the date of the report is 25th November.

What would be most interesting would be the results (even interim) of the US tests of the AZ vaccine, which apparently started on the 23rd Oct after being held up from the end of August due to the illness of a UK trial subject. I seem to recall the other tests resumed within acouple of weeks but the US held back permission for 5 to 6 weeks.
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Old 9th December 2020, 04:52 PM   #113
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What is the effectiveness of a single dose?

All of the 3 vaccines that appear to be ready or almost ready are 2-dose vaccines.

But the following question occurred to me:

If the goal is to achieve herd immunity as rapidly as possible, but we don't have enough vaccines for everyone to get one yet (much less to get both), would it make more sense to give everyone the first dose before people start getting the second dose? That way you cover twice as many people.
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Old 9th December 2020, 05:09 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Where is/are the antivaxxer thread(s).
In the US Senate.
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Old 9th December 2020, 07:10 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
It doesn't sound like something to take lightly:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...0c4_story.html

Even if a severe reaction is no more common than for a flu shot, allergies still have to be screened for. If one person dies from a covid shot, it will be catastrophic for the whole program.
All these stories are leaving out the most important piece of information, so I assume they don't have it. What were these two people allergic to?
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Old 9th December 2020, 08:31 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Modified View Post
All these stories are leaving out the most important piece of information, so I assume they don't have it. What were these two people allergic to?
It's not known yet.
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Old 9th December 2020, 09:03 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
What is the effectiveness of a single dose?

All of the 3 vaccines that appear to be ready or almost ready are 2-dose vaccines.

But the following question occurred to me:

If the goal is to achieve herd immunity as rapidly as possible, but we don't have enough vaccines for everyone to get one yet (much less to get both), would it make more sense to give everyone the first dose before people start getting the second dose? That way you cover twice as many people.
The problem is the second dose needs to be given close to the first dose to ensure the immune system produces enough resistance to stop infection, so it's just not possible.
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Old 9th December 2020, 10:05 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The problem is the second dose needs to be given close to the first dose to ensure the immune system produces enough resistance to stop infection, so it's just not possible.
That's probably not true, but...

When you study a new vaccine, you only have the data from the regimen studied.

Not until people start getting a late 2nd dose will data trickle in about longer intervals between doses being effective or not.

Technically you cannot say something is OK when you have no data to back that up.

For other adult vaccines, they usually still work with longer intervals between doses.

But a mRNA vaccine is new on the scene so doses should be given on the recommended schedule until proven effective with other schedules.
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Old 9th December 2020, 10:19 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
That's probably not true, but...
...let's look at the science.

52% v 95% looks like a no-brainer to me.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/h...ne-pfizer.html
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Old 9th December 2020, 11:52 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
...let's look at the science.

52% v 95% looks like a no-brainer to me.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/h...ne-pfizer.html
From the article:
Quote:
The efficacy of the vaccine after the first dose is about 52 percent, according to Dr. William C. Gruber, senior vice president of Pfizer Vaccine Clinical Research and Development. After the second dose, that rises to about 95 percent. “Two doses of vaccine provide maximum protection,” he said.
The question was what happens if the second dose is delayed.

The question was not how good is the first dose with no follow up dose.

There was no dispute that the vaccine needed 2 doses for maximum protection.
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