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Old 24th August 2021, 12:46 PM   #1
The Atheist
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Pandemic Panic Must Stop

I'd thought the level of panic over Covid might be a Kiwi problem, because we've been free of it for so long, while the media constantly refers to a "deadly disease", and delta - incorrectly - as "even deadlier than the original Covid".

Except, I've just been having a repeat argument about Covid and kids with an American, plus there's at least one person in the Aussie thread who's reached my estimated threshold for panicking about the disease instead of being rational.

In the medical thread, a poster was horrified that 1900 kids are in hospital in USA with Covid right now.

That's a very small number of kids in terms of a 300M population, and as Planigale noted:

Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
In the UK a substantial proportion of children admitted with covid, were not admitted because of covid, they were admitted for other reasons, e.g. fallimg out of a tree and happened to have covid. In addition a lot of young children with fevers are admitted for observation to make sure they do not have something serious like meningitis.
To me, the largest problem with the constant media barrage and people panicking over the pandemic is the long-term affect it's going to have on mental health.

We know that anxiety and depression are at all-time highs prior to the pandemic, and putting kids in a state of constant panic will be disastrous. we also know for sure that the number one thing that helps kids in all ways is education, and we're interrupting that badly.

Once a country gets to 70% vaccination, things must return to some semblance of normality. UK seems to have hit the spot, and Europe seems to be much the same - you hit a spot where infections flatten out and the number of deaths from Covid are no worse than seasonal 'flu and an order of magnitude lower than cardiac deaths. (Yes, Israel is an outlier)

Living in constant fear is worse than the disease.
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Old 24th August 2021, 01:07 PM   #2
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It'll be over when it's over and not a moment before.
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Old 24th August 2021, 01:13 PM   #3
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Right on cue, the very next page I open links to this:

Quote:
Far from slipping back into the lockdown groove of daily walks and distance learning, the past week has sent stress and anxiety levels “through the roof” in her Ōtara* community.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/edu...-worst-one-yet


*The boundary of Otara starts 2 km down the road from me.
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Old 24th August 2021, 01:20 PM   #4
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My previous reply was very simplistic, but I can elaborate... That 'small percentage' of children potentially dying from a cold is far far greater than the zero normally seen. How selfish is it to demand a return to normalcy and lack of fear when the fear is of something real and actually killing/maiming people?

Microorganisms are the last predator the human race has, and it's disappointing that we no longer have the fortitude to eliminate our predators, it's so much easier just to let them rampage and so long as it's 'those other people over there' being eaten why do we need to even try to protect ourselves?
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Old 24th August 2021, 01:31 PM   #5
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I'm not totally sure what this thread is trying to say. The ICU's are overrun in some areas, and the damage is having long-term health effects on people of all ages in the U.S. Is this aimed at the US, UK, India, etc.? The U.S. can't just shrug this off and they really shouldn't. If the UK has reached its goal, and infections are under control, then they should do as they wish.

It's pretty ridiculous to tell a nation of 300M people to "stop with the pandemic panic" when there are doctors walking out of hospitals and a large portion of the population still refusing to get vaccinated.
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Old 24th August 2021, 01:38 PM   #6
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Said poster is not panicking.

As for being "horrified", bull ****. You said 1900 was a drop in the bucket and I asked you to think again about that. In addition I pointed out all the associated damage like the kids spreading COVID to others and how terrified the child in the news story I linked to was. Tell a child they have COVID when they've heard over and over it kills people is traumatic for that child.

Now here you are bitching in another thread about it.

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Old 24th August 2021, 01:41 PM   #7
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There are children under 10 in intensive care units in Australia with covid. A 30 year old woman died in Sydney yesterday of covid.

Your opinion is rubbish.
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Old 24th August 2021, 01:48 PM   #8
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The psychopathic "People are dying for no reason, but the thing I really want to focus on is a small group of people being (my own definition of) overdramatic in a way that hurts absolutely nobody" attitude is some real edgelord crap.

I wish people would grow out of the "Not giving a **** about other people means I'm more logical, mature, and unemotional" flex real ******* quick.
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Old 24th August 2021, 02:03 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'd thought the level of panic over Covid might be a Kiwi problem, because we've been free of it for so long, while the media constantly refers to a "deadly disease", and delta - incorrectly - as "even deadlier than the original Covid".

Except, I've just been having a repeat argument about Covid and kids with an American, plus there's at least one person in the Aussie thread who's reached my estimated threshold for panicking about the disease instead of being rational.

In the medical thread, a poster was horrified that 1900 kids are in hospital in USA with Covid right now.

That's a very small number of kids in terms of a 300M population, and as Planigale noted:



To me, the largest problem with the constant media barrage and people panicking over the pandemic is the long-term affect it's going to have on mental health.

We know that anxiety and depression are at all-time highs prior to the pandemic, and putting kids in a state of constant panic will be disastrous. we also know for sure that the number one thing that helps kids in all ways is education, and we're interrupting that badly.

Once a country gets to 70% vaccination, things must return to some semblance of normality. UK seems to have hit the spot, and Europe seems to be much the same - you hit a spot where infections flatten out and the number of deaths from Covid are no worse than seasonal 'flu and an order of magnitude lower than cardiac deaths. (Yes, Israel is an outlier)

Living in constant fear is worse than the disease.
Living in constant fear is a feature, not a bug.
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Old 24th August 2021, 02:11 PM   #10
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People are also dying of non-Covid causes because the hospitals are jammed full of Covid patients. Very bad time to get in an accident, or have a stroke or heart attack.
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Old 24th August 2021, 02:15 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Except, I've just been having a repeat argument about Covid and kids with an American, plus there's at least one person in the Aussie thread who's reached my estimated threshold for panicking about the disease instead of being rational.
I guess the big question is: where is the dividing line between a reasonable/rational reaction to the situation (such as mask mandates) and a panic reaction.
Quote:
In the medical thread, a poster was horrified that 1900 kids are in hospital in USA with Covid right now.

That's a very small number of kids in terms of a 300M population
True, that's a small number of hospitalized given the total population. But...
- There are also probably thousands of kids who are extremely ill who haven't been hospitalized, and might suffer symptoms of 'long covid' for months.
- At least part of the reason the numbers are so low is that some people ARE taking the risks seriously (by engaging in social distancing, wearing masks, etc.)
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Old 24th August 2021, 02:20 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by deadrose View Post
People are also dying of non-Covid causes because the hospitals are jammed full of Covid patients. Very bad time to get in an accident, or have a stroke or heart attack.
An old friend of mine is in that boat. Trying to recover from some significant cancer treatments, and needs a stem cell transplant to do that.

The treatment has been postponed indefinitely due to a lack of hospital beds. They are all filled up with people who refused the vaccine.

Maybe he'll die from some disease that doesn't impact people with functioning immune systems, or maybe the cancer will come back without enough immune response to stop it. Maybe he'll get Covid and die real fast because his immune system is trashed and can't gain any benefit from vaccines until after he gets that indefinitely-postponed treatment.

I guess The Atheist thinks that's nothing to worry about though.
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Old 24th August 2021, 02:31 PM   #13
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For TA, it appears that anything other than bring sanguine and laid back about COVID for everyone else while looking out for number one first is "panic".
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Old 24th August 2021, 04:32 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Living in constant fear is worse than the disease.
Fear is an adaptation, it helps you get through life for a longer time than utter fearlessness.

Fear is why I look both ways before crossing the street to get back to my car, buckle up once I get there, and check my blind spots along the way. Fear is why I got my family vaccinated and refuse to hang about with my anti-vax inlaws. Fear is why we buy mushrooms at the greengrocer instead of eating the ones which happen to crop up in the yard.

Of course it's possible to a weight fears too heavily when doing cost/benefit calcs, but if we're going to talk about those, we have to be quite specific.
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Old 24th August 2021, 04:44 PM   #15
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Shorter TA: Dead American kids are of no concern to me!
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:03 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Silly Green Monkey View Post
How selfish is it to demand a return to normalcy and lack of fear when the fear is of something real and actually killing/maiming people?
That's a common argument, and I believe a completely nonsense one.

We accept risk as a feature of life. We don't enforce cars to drive at 10 mph so nobody gets killed, we don't stop selling fatty foods that cause immense numbers of early deaths, and we don't cut down all the trees in case a kid falls out of it.

If you're saying the only number of acceptable deaths from Covid is zero, then please explain why other deaths don't matter as much.

Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
I'm not totally sure what this thread is trying to say.
I did say it, but I'll repeat it for you:

...panicking about the disease instead of being rational.

And I'll unpack that a little so there's no confusion:

Taking precautions is good and vaccines are excellent, but working up states of panic is bad.

Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
The ICU's are overrun in some areas,...
Where vaccine resistance is high. I have zero sympathy for people who choose not to be vaccinated and I'd leave them in the carpark if it were down to me.

How many kids are in ICUs? If there are 1900 kids in USA with Covid, I'm picking the number is going to be very, very small.

Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
It's pretty ridiculous to tell a nation of 300M people to "stop with the pandemic panic" when there are doctors walking out of hospitals and a large portion of the population still refusing to get vaccinated.
How is panic aiding the fight against the disease?

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
There are children under 10 in intensive care units in Australia with covid. A 30 year old woman died in Sydney yesterday of covid.

Your opinion is rubbish.
How many kids under 10 have required ICU care in Australia?

Don't bother looking it up, I can tell you. Zero.

If you're looking for zero harm from Covid, please review the question I put to Silly Green Monkey and let me know why you aren't campaigning to have speed limits reduced and stop the sale of bacon.

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
The psychopathic "People are dying for no reason, but the thing I really want to focus on is a small group of people being (my own definition of) overdramatic in a way that hurts absolutely nobody" attitude is some real edgelord crap.
Unlike making up a strawman to create faux outrage?

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I wish people would grow out of the "Not giving a **** about other people means I'm more logical, mature, and unemotional" flex real ******* quick.
As for lionking and SGM, please let me know what level of death and harm you'd accept and save yourself a whole lot of asterisks.
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:04 PM   #17
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This kind of attitude is exactly why the current situation has gotten as bad as it is. We would have hammered it down long ago if we were contending with just the virus alone, instead of the virus plus this kind of moronic drivel to deliberately help the virus out as much as humanly possible.
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:11 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
How many kids under 10 have required ICU care in Australia?

Don't bother looking it up, I can tell you. Zero.
Do you even read your own sources??
Quote:
More than 200 young kids diagnosed with COVID-19 in one weekend
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/...22-p58kwt.html

I work in a major children's hospital in Sydney. I can confirm for you the number in ICU is definitely NOT zero.
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:30 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy View Post
Living in constant fear is a feature, not a bug.
It seems that way.

Originally Posted by deadrose View Post
People are also dying of non-Covid causes because the hospitals are jammed full of Covid patients. Very bad time to get in an accident, or have a stroke or heart attack.
Bingo!

Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I guess the big question is: where is the dividing line between a reasonable/rational reaction to the situation (such as mask mandates) and a panic reaction.
That's exactly my point.

Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
True, that's a small number of hospitalized given the total population. But...
- There are also probably thousands of kids who are extremely ill who haven't been hospitalized, and might suffer symptoms of 'long covid' for months.
I'd say it a certainty there will be thousands, but how many thousand?

If it's 5000, I wouldn't think it's much of a problem at 0.00007% of all children.

Find some actual numbers if you want to go down that path. And if you're so worried about long-term negative outcomes, why doesn't the mental health of millions of kids bother you?

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Fear is an adaptation, it helps you get through life for a longer time than utter fearlessness.
Fear isn't panic, but constant fear may cause lifelong anxiety, and since people are so concerned about long Covid, I'd expect them to be concerned about that even more, given the enormous downside of people with mental health issues. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7441973/

Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Of course it's possible to a weight fears too heavily when doing cost/benefit calcs, but if we're going to talk about those, we have to be quite specific.
The constant state of panic being encouraged by media and scaredy-cats. You may recognise some of the signs in this thread - and the ever-present "Why won't you think of the children?" or "He doesn't care about kids!"

Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Shorter TA: Dead American kids are of no concern to me!
That's entirely incorrect. I care deeply about dead American children, which is why I laugh at statements like that.

How many kids die from gunshot wounds in America every year? How many die in car crashes?

Hint - both are a lot more than ten times greater than the number of kids dying of Covid.
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:36 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Do you even read your own sources??
Sure I do, but it seems you don't, so I've taken a screenshot for you:



Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
I work in a major children's hospital in Sydney. I can confirm for you the number in ICU is definitely NOT zero.
Best you go have a talk to the Australian Government Department of Health, then. They're the one saying it.

And how many kids are in ICU right now from car crashes, falls, and other issues?
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:37 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
This kind of attitude is exactly why the current situation has gotten as bad as it is. We would have hammered it down long ago if we were contending with just the virus alone, instead of the virus plus this kind of moronic drivel to deliberately help the virus out as much as humanly possible.
Wow, vehement! Or just another strawman?

Please explain how panic is aiding the response to the pandemic.

TIA
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:46 PM   #22
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Nobody knows what "strawman" means anymore do they?
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Old 24th August 2021, 05:52 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
This kind of attitude is exactly why the current situation has gotten as bad as it is. We would have hammered it down long ago if we were contending with just the virus alone, instead of the virus plus this kind of moronic drivel to deliberately help the virus out as much as humanly possible.
This.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:07 PM   #24
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It'll be over when the fat lady is intubated.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:17 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Sure I do, but it seems you don't, so I've taken a screenshot for you:

http://charman.co.nz/icuoz.PNG
It is currently August 24.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:24 PM   #26
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I suspect the purpose of the OP was to kick up a fuss, and he suceeded.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:26 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Fear is an adaptation, it helps you get through life for a longer time than utter fearlessness.

Fear is why I look both ways before crossing the street to get back to my car, buckle up once I get there, and check my blind spots along the way. Fear is why I got my family vaccinated and refuse to hang about with my anti-vax inlaws. Fear is why we buy mushrooms at the greengrocer instead of eating the ones which happen to crop up in the yard.

Of course it's possible to a weight fears too heavily when doing cost/benefit calcs, but if we're going to talk about those, we have to be quite specific.
Fear can be good; it's a basic survival mechanism.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:31 PM   #28
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Panic doesn't aid the response to the pandemic. And the stress created under these conditions can itself be a detriment to health. But panic will be an unavoidable consequence of any mass crisis.

I worry about panic, but right now I worry more about the sheer lack of empathy and convoluted denial among people in the worst-hit regions. I would respect them a bit more if they justified their relatively lax response to the crisis by saying they just don't want to contribute to mass panic, but that's often not the only reason.
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Old 24th August 2021, 06:38 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Sure I do, but it seems you don't, so I've taken a screenshot for you:

http://charman.co.nz/icuoz.PNG
That was to the end of July. The numbers are different now. I am not permitted to reveal them though. Just to show how different, your numbers show 5600-odd cases 1-Jan to 1-Aug. NSW alone has been reporting 600+ new cases per day for a couple of weeks now - it's been in the news, remember? That's over 6000 cases since the start of August. Want to guess how many are kids? And how many of those in ICU now?


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Best you go have a talk to the Australian Government Department of Health, then. They're the one saying it.
FEDERAL Health Department, not state Health Departments. They are a bunch of bureaucratic bean-counters. They don't run hospitals.

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And how many kids are in ICU right now from car crashes, falls, and other issues?
You forgot kids with life-threatening diseases and cancer-sufferers, among others. Some of all of those have COVID. They are not mutually exclusive conditions. And paediatric ICU is not unlimited. Under this government, we are scraping to fund hospital facilities generally and paediatric facilities in particular. Gladys used to be our state health minister and she knows this. COVID patients add to the burden on an already stretched ICU capability. So when they are full, we do...what? Which kids do we deny access to ICU first? Toss a coin?

You really are sounding more and more like Bolsanaro. It's just a "little flu", no need to panic. Don't be that guy.
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:11 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
An old friend of mine is in that boat. Trying to recover from some significant cancer treatments, and needs a stem cell transplant to do that.

The treatment has been postponed indefinitely due to a lack of hospital beds. They are all filled up with people who refused the vaccine.

Maybe he'll die from some disease that doesn't impact people with functioning immune systems, or maybe the cancer will come back without enough immune response to stop it. Maybe he'll get Covid and die real fast because his immune system is trashed and can't gain any benefit from vaccines until after he gets that indefinitely-postponed treatment.

I guess The Atheist thinks that's nothing to worry about though.
I can think of a quick way to clear out those beds, but it wouldn't be legal or ethical.
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:30 PM   #31
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Herd immunity by vaccination and, to a lesser degree, previous infection, has been the strategy of policy makers. Alpha, and to a greater degree, Delta has made that increasingly impossible leading to Covid-19 becoming endemic. Several countries like Singapore and the UK are now planning to transition to an endemic model. The main significance is that NPIs can only delay, but not stop, the entire population from being exposed.

NPIs are still useful in the first phase. They can smooth out the numbers infected at any one time to reduce the burden on hospitals. And they can buy time to get people vaccinated. And this gets into the age skew of Covid-19.

100,000 vaccinated people of age 12 will save as many as 1,000 vaccinated people of age 52 and 100 vaccinated people of age 72.

Much of the media has, for quite a while now, focused on relatively younger people that got Covid-19 and died. This may be good messaging when trying to get as many people as possible vaccinated in search of herd immunity but it has the side effect of muting the highly asymmetric risk older people face. This messaging needs to change because they are clogging up hospitals and morgues and that is showing up in the numbers. Get as many vaccinated as possible but change the messaging please.

Messaging should also point out that if you haven't been vaccinated or previously been exposed you are going to get covid-19. Get vaccinated or take your chances.

As for kids too young to get vaccinated, there's not much to be done. Closing schools and other NPIs just delays things but doesn't change the ultimate result absent Vaccine 2.0 or some yet to be discovered treatment. Rather the focus should be on testing vaccines on lower age groups and doing risk/benefit on them. This is not simple because it takes a really huge number to know as the risk level is so low anyway. But to some degree it can be assessed by collecting and reviewing the extensive data on kids 12-13 then dropping the age in increments given a good benefit/risk profile.
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Last edited by marting; 24th August 2021 at 07:31 PM.
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:45 PM   #32
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What is NPI in this context?
Natl Provider ID seems unlikely.
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:59 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
There are children under 10 in intensive care units in Australia with covid. A 30 year old woman died in Sydney yesterday of covid.

Your opinion is rubbish.
Whose opinion?
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:59 PM   #34
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I've noticed some panic in US friends over the level of anti-vaxxers, with some claiming at least 40%, and worried that the 70-80% safe level of vaccination will never be reached.

One thing that might help is actual stats.

How many Americans identify as antivaxxers?

https://www.futurity.org/how-many-am...xxers-2578842/

"A study of more than 1,000 demographically representative participants found that about 22% of Americans self-identify as anti-vaxxers, and tend to embrace the label as a form of social identity.

"According to the study by researchers including Texas A&M University School of Public Health assistant professor Timothy Callaghan, 8% of this group “always” self-identify this way, with 14% “sometimes” identifying as part of the anti-vaccine movement."
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Old 24th August 2021, 07:59 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by deadrose View Post
People are also dying of non-Covid causes because the hospitals are jammed full of Covid patients. Very bad time to get in an accident, or have a stroke or heart attack.
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Old 24th August 2021, 08:05 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I've noticed some panic in US friends over the level of anti-vaxxers, with some claiming at least 40%, and worried that the 70-80% safe level of vaccination will never be reached.

One thing that might help is actual stats.

How many Americans identify as antivaxxers?

https://www.futurity.org/how-many-am...xxers-2578842/

"A study of more than 1,000 demographically representative participants found that about 22% of Americans self-identify as anti-vaxxers, and tend to embrace the label as a form of social identity.

"According to the study by researchers including Texas A&M University School of Public Health assistant professor Timothy Callaghan, 8% of this group “always” self-identify this way, with 14% “sometimes” identifying as part of the anti-vaccine movement."
I think that in the US, there is almost no chance that 70-80% will get vaccinated, and it may be that 70-80% is not even herd immunity levels.

Even if some of the more vaccine-friendly states get 70-80% of the population vaccinated, and it would need to involve children as well, there will be states where such numbers will not be reached.
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Old 24th August 2021, 08:11 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I think that in the US, there is almost no chance that 70-80% will get vaccinated, and it may be that 70-80% is not even herd immunity levels.

Even if some of the more vaccine-friendly states get 70-80% of the population vaccinated, and it would need to involve children as well, there will be states where such numbers will not be reached.
Yes there are hotspots of covidiocy.

But overall, the 70-80% figure will be reached in the US.

The question is, do we panic about the hotspots of covidiocy?
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Old 24th August 2021, 08:16 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That's a common argument, and I believe a completely nonsense one.

We accept risk as a feature of life. We don't enforce cars to drive at 10 mph so nobody gets killed, we don't stop selling fatty foods that cause immense numbers of early deaths, and we don't cut down all the trees in case a kid falls out of it.
None of those measures are cost effective. There are better approaches.


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If you're saying the only number of acceptable deaths from Covid is zero, then please explain why other deaths don't matter as much.
This is from your imagination.


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I did say it, but I'll repeat it for you:

...panicking about the disease instead of being rational.
No one I see is panicking. What evidence do you base this baseless conclusion on?


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And I'll unpack that a little so there's no confusion:

Taking precautions is good and vaccines are excellent, but working up states of panic is bad.
For anyone who is curious I believe my sentence in the other thread, "So you want to try that again, 1900 is a drop in the bucket? ," or something like that struck a nerve.



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Where vaccine resistance is high. I have zero sympathy for people who choose not to be vaccinated and I'd leave them in the carpark if it were down to me.

How many kids are in ICUs? If there are 1900 kids in USA with Covid, I'm picking the number is going to be very, very small.
There were 1900 kids hospitalized and 358 died, pay attention. This is the number of infections in kids (link in the other thread):
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In the last week alone, according to the report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association, nearly 72,000 cases were reported in children,

Quote:
snipped more of the same


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Unlike making up a strawman to create faux outrage?
What straw man would this be? And BTW, the biggest straw man in this thread is you claiming other people are panicked. I can't for the life of me understand what you think we are doing that indicates panic.



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As for lionking and SGM, please let me know what level of death and harm you'd accept and save yourself a whole lot of asterisks.
Death and harm in whom?

As few kids as possible, and that means I am in favor of vaccinating children as soon as we can. And BTW, the direct damage to kids was only one aspect of the reason to vaccinate kids. I listed others in my reply to you.
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Old 24th August 2021, 08:20 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Checkmite View Post
It is currently August 24.
And the rate of COVID cases in Oz has spiked in the last month so Jan to Aug 1st would have been the count when there were relative few cases of COVID overall.
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Old 24th August 2021, 08:21 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I suspect the purpose of the OP was to kick up a fuss, and he suceeded.
I suspect it was to avoid addressing this discussion in the other thread, 'I know, I'll just start another discussion in another sub-forum.'
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