|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
28th September 2014, 09:32 PM | #121 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
So now you are trying to equate limits on the size of withdrawals with "adventures people have had in trying to get their money out of exchanges".
Are there any straws left for you to grasp at? ... Annnnnd ..... back to uncritical thinking mode! No matter how many gambling sites are on that list, it is meaningless without the bitcoin deposit rates for each site. That said, there are not too many other ways that you could spend a currency/non-currency that was designed for hoarding. The deflationary nature of bitcoin and the use of transaction fees are both aspects of its design that discourage spending. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
28th September 2014, 11:21 PM | #122 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
So, as I suspected, you can't. The point of my question was to show how thinly capitalized BTC is, despite the claims of "$6 billion market cap" and so on. Even at the current price, it's still a bubble.
ETA: $378 now. A leaking bubble, at that.
Quote:
|
29th September 2014, 01:33 AM | #123 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
29th September 2014, 04:19 AM | #124 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
29th September 2014, 05:35 AM | #125 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
That wasn't your argument . You argued that "gambling represents almost half of all BTC transactions" and that "ALL bitcoin exchanges have difficulty cashing out withdrawals".
The argument you switched to is also a non-sequitur because it tries to imply that the only reason that bitcoin exchanges can't process unlimited cash withdrawals is that they are bankrupt. The real reasons were explored ad-nauseum in the other thread. You are just trying to recycle old discredited arguments to a new audience. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
29th September 2014, 06:48 AM | #126 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
You admitted yourself that there's little else you can do with Bitcoin besides gamble. And I never said that the exchanges were bankrupt; I said they are thinly capitalized. They might be able to cash out a small holder, say 10 or 20 BTC, fairly readily; they might be able to cash out someone holding a thousand BTC given a couple of days; but Tippit's friend with the 35,000 BTC could wait until the Rapture and never see his
|
29th September 2014, 07:19 AM | #127 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
29th September 2014, 07:33 AM | #128 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In a post-fact world
Posts: 96,875
|
According to Mhaze, a conservative estimate has the value of a BTC at 5000 USD by the end of the year !
|
29th September 2014, 07:34 AM | #129 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In a post-fact world
Posts: 96,875
|
|
29th September 2014, 08:13 AM | #130 |
Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 8,044
|
Looking at the market-depth charts on the bitstamp exchange, it's probably not going to go under $375 for a while, there's a lot of standing bids at that price.
Ha... I just noticed that someone's got a bid for 0.02 bitcoins set at $357.48. I wonder what they were thinking? "I want exactly two cents of bitcoin, but I've only got $7.15 to spare"? Looking at the price history, I see that this time last year bitcoin was selling for around $130, so long-term holders are still going good. (But I suppose that's no consolation for people who bought at over $1000 in late November.) |
__________________
"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
|
29th September 2014, 08:56 AM | #131 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
If you were honest you would acknowledge that I have long stated precisely what bitcoin is good for - hoarding. (I even repeated that a few posts ago).
It is a store of value. It is easy to store, portable and can readily be transferred over long distances (while ignoring international boundaries too). The cash value may fluctuate wildly over the short and even the long term but the latent value is still there. Maybe none of that matters much as long as faith in national currencies hold. However, as events in Cyprus showed, even a slight case of the jitters is enough to send demand for bitcoin soaring and that is when bitcoin holders will come into their own. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
29th September 2014, 09:08 AM | #132 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
29th September 2014, 09:59 PM | #133 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
29th September 2014, 11:20 PM | #134 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 10,293
|
|
29th September 2014, 11:55 PM | #135 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
29th September 2014, 11:59 PM | #136 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 10,293
|
|
30th September 2014, 02:31 AM | #137 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
30th September 2014, 09:34 AM | #138 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
30th September 2014, 11:32 AM | #139 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,631
|
That actually happened to the Swiss Dinars vis-a-vis the Saddam dinars in Iraq after the 1990 Gulf War, despite the Swiss dinars explicitly being revoked legal tender status by the government. In fact, they even appreciated against the U.S. dollar at some point.
However, I don't think that example is analogous to Bitcoin vs. USD. |
__________________
...Forever shall the wolf in me desire the sheep in you...
|
|
1st October 2014, 09:11 AM | #140 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
1st October 2014, 09:11 AM | #141 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
1st October 2014, 11:16 AM | #142 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
1st October 2014, 11:28 AM | #143 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
1st October 2014, 11:44 AM | #144 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
1st October 2014, 12:49 PM | #145 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
1st October 2014, 07:01 PM | #146 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
I don't know if you think that is somehow different to saying, "If faith in a national currency wavers then the demand (price) for bitcoin will increase" (in which case you have constructed a strawman argument) or if you are denying that there were meteoric price rises during the Cyprus crisis.
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
2nd October 2014, 02:26 AM | #147 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 5,229
|
You've got a short memory:
http://www.theguardian.com/technolog...-high-currency Now, it could be coincidence, or a reaction by those other than Cypriots (it's thought to have involved Russians as well as those in the PIGS states, not just Cypriots), but it seems fairly clear the Cypriot crisis is reflected in the Bitcoin price. |
2nd October 2014, 04:55 AM | #148 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,631
|
The dynamics there was not necessarily about faltering faith in the currency itself, the euro, but in the scare that you're in for a haircut – i.e., a faltering faith in domestic financial institutions. Those who could, moved their deposits via TARGET2 to other banks within the EMU. Some chose Bitcoin. Bitcoin need not have been their first alternative.
|
__________________
...Forever shall the wolf in me desire the sheep in you...
|
|
2nd October 2014, 05:44 AM | #149 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
2nd October 2014, 09:36 AM | #150 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
International confidence in the Euro doesn't seem to have wavered too much during the crisis. There was a small drop in the value of the Euro during the early part of 2013 but it wasn't great. http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=USD&view=2Y
However, local confidence is a different matter. If you need to use financial institutions (that you have lost confidence in) to use the Euro then it is probably hair-splitting to distinguish between loss of confidence in the financial institution or the currency itself. Bitcoin need not be the first alternative but it only takes a small percentage of the population to turn to it in times of crisis to have a significant effect on its price. |
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
3rd October 2014, 12:46 AM | #151 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 5,229
|
|
3rd October 2014, 10:11 AM | #152 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
I think that the developers of Bitcoin saw it as kind of a digital "Swiss bank account", to replace the actual Swiss bank accounts which got legislated out of existence. It might still become something like that, although if sufficient demand exists I suspect some entity in, say, the Cayman Islands might develop a BTC clone denominated in USD.
|
3rd October 2014, 10:17 AM | #153 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
3rd October 2014, 10:18 AM | #154 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
$364 now.
|
3rd October 2014, 10:30 AM | #155 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
Let's think this through, shall we?
I'm a, shall we say, less than honorable character. I have $1 million that I need to stash somewhere safely. A guy in a floppy hat at Los Banco de No Preguntas in the Cayman Islands offers to store it for me in his spanking-new USD-denominated BTC clone. It's secure, and I can go get my million any time I need to make a, ahem, purchase. Another guy offers me $1 million in BTC. It's kinda secure, assuming I don't lose the thumb drive it's stored on or the exchange I use isn't hacked. I can use it to make purchases, assuming the other party wants BTC and not that filthy USD. If not, I have to go someplace and try and sell my BTC for $1 million; maybe I'll get my million (in a few weeks or so), maybe I'll get $600K and some dodgy Starbucks cards. Which would you use? |
3rd October 2014, 04:13 PM | #156 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
3rd October 2014, 04:56 PM | #157 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In a post-fact world
Posts: 96,875
|
357.9 now. A bit of a drop, recently.
|
4th October 2014, 11:24 AM | #158 |
beer-swilling semiliterate
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Connecticut, or King Arthur's Court. Hard to tell sometimes.
Posts: 25,791
|
|
5th October 2014, 05:54 AM | #159 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In a post-fact world
Posts: 96,875
|
311 and dropping. I wonder what happened this time to trigger this.
|
5th October 2014, 09:26 AM | #160 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 20,952
|
There doesn't appear to be any clear trigger but a Forbes Magazine article makes a couple of interesting (though not necessarily definitive) points:
One is the ".........old adage that people tend to overestimate the possibility of technology in the short run but wildly underestimate it in the long run" and the other is that the more businesses that accept bitcoin as payment, the more businesses that want to to cash out those bitcoins (putting downward pressure on the bitcoin price).
Quote:
|
__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|