|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
2nd August 2017, 12:10 AM | #241 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 3,632
|
This ^
Whenever I see Henry talking about the German navy, I only think 'What navy? There was none!' And even the u-boats could not have done a lot. According to this source (Appendix A, Table 7, page 54 (which I suspect should have been called table 10, by the way)), there were only 29 u-boats active during june 1940. Which actually was the lowest number till that point in the war (and going lower from that point on, before finally rising again in march 1941). If we look at Table 11, page 57, we see that of the 210 u-boats active on december 1942, only 63 (30%) were actually on their station. The rest were in transit (22%) or at their base (48%). So. From the 29 u-boats active in june 1940 we can expect about 9 to be actually present for operations. Not a good basis for planning the greatest amphibian assault up to that moment, I think. |
2nd August 2017, 02:59 AM | #242 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Bristol UK
Posts: 4,127
|
I agree that the senior officers in the German Navy were not as keen on an invasion of Britain as the German army and air force. I have never researched where the German battleship Bismarck was at the time, but it was a ship that was not to be underestimated. Also Admiral Canaris of the Abwehr it looks like now was one of ours, and he had the ear of Hitler at the time. It has also been said in the past that Corporal Hitler was more of an Army man than a Navy man.
All I know is that General Alan Brooke was expecting an invasion any time in September 1940, unlike many of the subsequent scholars writing about the matter in hindsight. I agree with what this internet poster has said about the matter, even if he is not a scholar with modern data:
Quote:
|
2nd August 2017, 03:26 AM | #243 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
|
2nd August 2017, 03:59 AM | #244 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 31,644
|
|
__________________
OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
|
2nd August 2017, 04:06 AM | #245 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,726
|
The Navy men likely appreciated that they were not going to be able to pull it off. Nothing like near certain failure to cause a loss of enthusiasm.
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
The Kriegsmarine lacked the ability to land and resupply an invasion force. Air superiority would not have helped there - the RN would have devastated the invasion ships, and the landing force would have run out of ammunition and fuel before they got more then a day from their landing areas. That guys not only not using modern data, he's ignoring the data that was released 40 years before he wrote his armchair assessment. |
__________________
Questions, comments, queries, bitches, complaints, rude gestures and/or remarks? |
|
2nd August 2017, 04:18 AM | #246 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,579
|
|
__________________
"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
|
2nd August 2017, 04:23 AM | #247 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,579
|
|
__________________
"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
|
2nd August 2017, 04:45 AM | #248 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
The Deutsche LuftstreitkräfteWP
(German: [ˈdɔʏtʃə ˈlʊftˌʃtʁaɪtkʁɛftə], German Air Force)known before October 1916 as the Fliegertruppen des deutschen Kaiserreiches (Imperial German Flying Corps)[1] or simply Die Fliegertruppewas the World War I (191418) air arm of the German Army, of which it remained an integral part |
2nd August 2017, 04:54 AM | #250 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 5,229
|
"
Do people who disagree think that the Normandy landings would have gone ahead if the allies had not had air superiority. I think not. " But "Spartan" seemed quite happy with the idea of the Normandy landings going ahead in a situation where the German navy had "71 destroyers, 11 cruisers, 5 battleships and an aircraft carrier" (from Dave Rogers' post) and the allies had, say, a bunch of subs and barges to screen the convoy. You see, the thing with the Normandy landings (and others in '43/'44), the allies didn't just have air superiority (total on D-Day), but also a massive naval superiority (total for most, if not all, invasions). You just need to look at Crete. The airborne part was the only bit that "successful", with air superiority, however the naval landing (which was half the troops transported) was a complete washout. |
2nd August 2017, 04:55 AM | #251 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 34,249
|
I was waiting for someone to prove their complete ignorance by suggesting that a ship that wasn't in commission until 1941 could be used to support Operation Sealion. Bismarck was in the Baltic from late September, where her crew were trying to figure out how to steer her. It's unlikely she could have got from there to the Channel without being intercepted by the five RN battleships that were stationed at Scapa Flow specifically for that purpose, and we know what just two battleships could do to her.
Do you for some bizarre reason think that ignorance is an advantage in trying to form sensible conclusions? Dave |
__________________
There is truth and there are lies. - President Joseph R. Biden, January 20th, 2021 |
|
2nd August 2017, 05:07 AM | #252 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,726
|
|
__________________
Questions, comments, queries, bitches, complaints, rude gestures and/or remarks? |
|
2nd August 2017, 05:59 AM | #254 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,579
|
But the German air force was a separate part of the armed forces when Göring led their heroic supply of the encircled 6th Army at Stalingrad.
You said "leader", that's a bit malleable. He was Hitler's deputy until his testament showed he was not his successor. |
__________________
"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
|
2nd August 2017, 06:16 AM | #255 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
Göring didn't do much "leading". He had other priorities.
However, the argument with Zeitzler did not take place on the 24th, before the airlift began. It could not have. After Göring visited Hitler at the Berghof on the 22d, he departed for Paris in Asia, his luxurious command train. He spent the next four dayswhen he should have been organizing the airliftvisiting Parisian art dealers and galleries. 39 Von Richthofen was appalled. I urge Jeschonnek and Zeitzler to report my views to the Führer, he wrote in his diary on the 25th, and to harness the Reichsmarschall, but he's in Paris! |
2nd August 2017, 06:29 AM | #256 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,579
|
But then, he was an even more accomplished art connaisseur than aviator, witness his procurement of Vermeer's "Christ with the Adulteress".
|
__________________
"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
|
2nd August 2017, 08:39 AM | #257 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 31,644
|
Maybe the uncommissioned Bismark stopped Chamberlain from reporting on German planning that started after his death?
Indeed. Air supremacy (not just superiority) was vital to D-Day - the allies flew 14,674 sorties, whilst the Luftwaffe managed 319. However Naval supremacy was also vital. Putting it in it's most blatant, the argument put forward by "spartan" is equivalent to saying that because the Allies needed air superiority to invade, it means that somehow a lack of ships would have been unimportant. That is only *slightly* unfair to their argument. |
__________________
OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
|
2nd August 2017, 09:04 AM | #258 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Bristol UK
Posts: 4,127
|
I just think that scholars are underestimating the German Navy. Without air superiority the British Navy was a sitting duck, as was proved when the Japanese sank a British ship in the Pacific with the loss of a thousand sailors, and the Bismarck sank another British battleship with another loss of a thousand sailors. That's why many scholars now say battleships are obsolete.
Chamberlain, and even Churchill, did inflict damage on the German Navy during the Norway campaign which might have affected the later German invasion of Britain. From a Wikipedia about the matter:
Quote:
|
2nd August 2017, 09:13 AM | #259 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Bristol UK
Posts: 4,127
|
Churchill was quoted once as saying the one thing that gave him the jitters during the war was the German Naval U boat menace. That is relevant to any invasion of Britain. From that source about the U boats quoted above:
Quote:
|
2nd August 2017, 09:18 AM | #261 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 31,644
|
|
__________________
OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
|
2nd August 2017, 09:20 AM | #262 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 31,644
|
What has the Battle of the Atlantic (where U-boats attacked convoys of merchant ships) got to do with an invasion plan where the U-boats would have had to defend convoys of barges?
You might also note that Churchill was not quoted as saying he had jitters about an invasion. |
__________________
OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
|
2nd August 2017, 09:22 AM | #263 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 15,720
|
The Nazi construction of landing craft suggests there was a serious intent to invade the UK. But any chance of a successful attempt would have required defeat of the RAF and RN first.
|
__________________
Audiophile/biker/sceptic |
|
2nd August 2017, 09:24 AM | #264 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,726
|
|
__________________
Questions, comments, queries, bitches, complaints, rude gestures and/or remarks? |
|
2nd August 2017, 09:24 AM | #265 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 34,249
|
And I think that people who think the German Navy had the strength to force a Channel crossing simply can't count.
Two ships, actually, a battleship and a battlecruiser, but they didn't manage to sink any of the accompanying destroyers, which are a hell of a lot harder to hit. Do you ever read the nonsense you post? (1) This has ****-all to do with air superiority as no aircraft were involved, and (2) one battleship sinking another is nothing to do with why battleships are obsolete. You may also note that destroyers are decidedly not obsolete, and it's destroyers that would have massacred the German invasion fleet. Amazing. I always thought it was the Royal Navy and the Norwegian shore batteries that did all that. Dave |
__________________
There is truth and there are lies. - President Joseph R. Biden, January 20th, 2021 |
|
2nd August 2017, 09:30 AM | #266 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 34,249
|
|
__________________
There is truth and there are lies. - President Joseph R. Biden, January 20th, 2021 |
|
2nd August 2017, 09:58 AM | #267 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 31,644
|
Exercise Tiger shows how vulnerable inadequately-escorted dedicated landing ships (not barges) were.
Sealion would have been far less favourable. |
__________________
OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
|
2nd August 2017, 10:03 AM | #268 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 15,720
|
|
__________________
Audiophile/biker/sceptic |
|
2nd August 2017, 10:30 AM | #269 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 34,249
|
|
__________________
There is truth and there are lies. - President Joseph R. Biden, January 20th, 2021 |
|
2nd August 2017, 11:25 AM | #270 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 31,644
|
|
__________________
OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
|
2nd August 2017, 11:45 AM | #271 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 6,140
|
Reading 'Wages of Destruction' and its clear from that any notion they could have produced those landing craft sooner or built a horde of U-Boats if they had scrapped the surface fleet plans are a non-starter, the Germans were pretty much short of everything.
One thing the book that struck as rather strange was that in 1936 Britain was threatening sanctions against Germany and even Chamberlain was strongly in favour. Nothing to do with the re-militarization of the Rhineland, it was the German threat to suspend loan repayments... |
__________________
So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
|
2nd August 2017, 12:41 PM | #272 |
Uncritical "thinker"
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 31,644
|
I have heard speculation that Chamberlain's terminal illness affected his negotiating ability at Munich.
|
__________________
OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
|
3rd August 2017, 01:16 AM | #273 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 5,229
|
|
3rd August 2017, 02:20 AM | #274 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 5,265
|
I wonder what would have happened had Hitler actually pushed the invasion forward.
It would have been an unmitigated disaster losing a major part of the army and most of the remnants of his fleet, with most likely the Luftwaffe being severly damaged too. Would that have been enough to encourage Stalin to move west? Or Vichi France to attempt a rematch? After all the French had most of their fleet intact and could have offered the British a safe place to land. Also, the major purges of the army had not really happened yet, so a military coup would have been far more likely. |
3rd August 2017, 02:32 AM | #275 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 15,720
|
A Soviet invasion west would run into the same problems invasions of Russia have, a massive supply line across hostile territory.
|
__________________
Audiophile/biker/sceptic |
|
3rd August 2017, 03:31 AM | #276 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,841
|
|
3rd August 2017, 06:32 AM | #277 |
Mafia Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 19,579
|
|
__________________
"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
|
3rd August 2017, 08:45 AM | #278 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Bristol UK
Posts: 4,127
|
General Alan Brooke was told in his diaries that he discovered that the Home Fleet in the event of an invasion, had little intention of coming further south than the Wash. As destroyers were also being drawn off to Western Approaches, the naval defence in the Channel and southern waters did not appear to be able to offer the required interference with German landing operations........ Also in his diaries he wrote:
Quote:
|
3rd August 2017, 01:57 PM | #279 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
|
Goring had a long history of making extravagant promises that the failed to keep before the Stalingrad promise.
His "Leave it to me;the Luftwaffe alone can finish off all those Brits in Dunkirk" is one example. "And if one Alllied Bomb falls on Berlin, you can call me Meyer" is another. Later, Hitler,in one of the very few times he admitted to a mistake;said he never should have believed Goring's Stalingrad promise given how ofter before Goring had made extravagant promises he failed to keep. |
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
|
3rd August 2017, 03:22 PM | #280 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 6,140
|
On the other hand assuming the Soviets massed their troops and supplies at the border in the same way the Germans did in June 41 they had a lot less ground to cover to reach Berlin than the Germans did to reach Moscow.
I suspect though Stalin would have been content to watch Germany and Britain batter away at one another for a while longer while the Soviet forces carried on their modernisation. |
__________________
So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|