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Old 3rd October 2017, 06:10 PM   #201
Roboramma
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
When robots take all the jobs and everyone is on UBI, people will be drawn to more creative and intellectual pursuits.

After all, under UBI, nobody needs a job.
Sure. But there's nothing stopping "robots" (or AI systems anyway) from doing those things too.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 10:19 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
So are predictions that robots will take our jobs. That's actually a much more extraordinary claim.
It is actually much less extraordinary than your claim that new jobs will magically appear from nowhere in sufficient numbers to keep the population gainfully employed (because "steam engines").
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Old 4th October 2017, 12:30 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
When robots take all the jobs and everyone is on UBI, people will be drawn to more creative and intellectual pursuits.

After all, under UBI, nobody needs a job.
Ouukay. Ahh, you mean the creative and intellectual humans. What about the other humans?

What if Trump stays in power, and there will be neither UBI nor even universal health care? This UBI seems to be taken as granted, while the current political climate does not necessarily give reasons for such optimism. Not in all countries anyway, and USA is among the most worrying ones.
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Old 4th October 2017, 06:24 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It is actually much less extraordinary than your claim that new jobs will magically appear from nowhere in sufficient numbers to keep the population gainfully employed (because "steam engines").
I made no such claim. I claimed we can't predict what new jobs may be created nor what jobs will actually go away with any accuracy. The few historical parallels we have back that up, such as the steam engine.
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Old 4th October 2017, 01:35 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Sure. But there's nothing stopping "robots" (or AI systems anyway) from doing those things too.
Well the nice thing about creative and intellectual pursuits is that there's always room for more. With manufacturing, either a human builds this car or a robot does. If a robot builds it, a human can't. But both a human and a robot can produce a painting and neither diminishes the value of the other.

Originally Posted by JJM 777 View Post
Ouukay. Ahh, you mean the creative and intellectual humans. What about the other humans?
Well, obviously they starve and die because they don't deserve to live.

Seriously now, think about it. Those people who don't have another form of income are still kept off the poverty line by UBI. They can survive quite happily on just that.

Originally Posted by JJM 777 View Post
What if Trump stays in power, and there will be neither UBI nor even universal health care? This UBI seems to be taken as granted, while the current political climate does not necessarily give reasons for such optimism. Not in all countries anyway, and USA is among the most worrying ones.
The point is that when robots take all our job, UBI will be necessary or people will simply starve and die because they can't afford to eat.

So the choice is either to implement UBI or watch millions of your people die and your government and entire country collapse into a dystopian hellhole. There are really no other options.
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Old 4th October 2017, 05:32 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Well the nice thing about creative and intellectual pursuits is that there's always room for more. With manufacturing, either a human builds this car or a robot does. If a robot builds it, a human can't. But both a human and a robot can produce a painting and neither diminishes the value of the other.
Each person only has so much wall space for hanging paintings, so much time for reading books, or listening to music, watching movies etc. So they are faced with a choice of which painting to hang, which movie to watch. If the robots produce better paintings cheaper, there won't be much income to be made by human painters.
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Old 4th October 2017, 06:02 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Each person only has so much wall space for hanging paintings, so much time for reading books, or listening to music, watching movies etc. So they are faced with a choice of which painting to hang, which movie to watch. If the robots produce better paintings cheaper, there won't be much income to be made by human painters.

And the bar may not be that high. Paintings bring to mind the obvious (if dubious) appeal of Velvet Elvis's and dogs playing poker. More than a few of the Western world's most poplar fiction series were written by stables of authors who were viewed as essentially interchangeable. The top of the NYT best-seller's list is regularly occupied by authors who churn out formulaic novels that are near clones of each other on an annual or semi-annual basis. And the readers love it that way.

It hasn't been all that long since the term "computer" was a job description, not a reference to a piece of hardware. NASA hired them by the roomful in the Sixties.
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Old 4th October 2017, 06:21 PM   #208
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
That sounds like magical thinking to me. You know that humans are made of the same stuff as robots, right? What sort of job can there be that only humans can do?
Humans are prone to magical thinking. One job that only humans can do is be human.

If I run the only bar in town that's tended by humans, I will make *bank* off humans who want to be served by one of their own for a change..

If I'm the only human artist taking commissions in the western hemisphere, my luxurious lifestyle is assured, for no other reason than my works are human works.

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Old 4th October 2017, 06:47 PM   #209
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Humans are prone to magical thinking. One job that only humans can do is be human.

If I run the only bar in town that's tended by humans, I will make *bank* off humans who want to be served by one of their own for a change..

If I'm the only human artist taking commissions in the western hemisphere, my luxurious lifestyle is assured, for no other reason than my works are human works.

I'm detecting an excluded middle here.

Not a very persuasive argument.
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Old 4th October 2017, 07:43 PM   #210
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
I'm detecting an excluded middle here.

Not a very persuasive argument.
What are you even talking about?
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Old 4th October 2017, 08:05 PM   #211
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
What are you even talking about?

It isn't that complicated. I'm a bit surprised you are asking for help.
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Old 5th October 2017, 04:47 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
UBI will be necessary or people will simply starve and die because they can't afford to eat.

So the choice is either to implement UBI or watch millions of your people die and your government and entire country collapse into a dystopian hellhole.
People will revolt before they die, so at least they will die fighting the robots. A guerrilla war against governmental and wealthy civilian targets. Some might go back to the iron age, into rural communities.
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Old 5th October 2017, 08:53 AM   #213
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Am I the only one talking about wages here? Because wages are the one of the biggest assumptions in any corporate financial analysis of automation.

Before a company undertakes a project (let's say McDonald's and the automated cashiers), they first analyze all the likely cash flows from the project. In this case, there would be a large upfront cost for the machines, plus training costs for the managers to understand the machines. There would be ongoing maintenance, and the robots would only have a certain economic life.

Those are the negative cash flows. The positive cash flows are the cost savings due to the reduced man-hours required to run the restaurant Obviously reduced wages and benefits are the main positive cash flows. (Depreciation tax savings on the robots are another).

The cash flows are then discounted at the company's cost of capital to a net present value. If the NPV is positive, the company should undertake the project. If the NPV is negative they should pass.

The point is that robots are only useful as replacements at certain wages. If you assume lower wages, then the robots become uneconomical. But nobody's assuming lower wages, which puzzles me. Classical economics will tell you that if you increase the supply of something at the same time the demand for it is declining, that the price (wages) should decline.

Nobody wants to hear that the answer to automation taking our jobs is lower wages, but it's the truth.
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Old 5th October 2017, 01:37 PM   #214
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Each person only has so much wall space for hanging paintings, so much time for reading books, or listening to music, watching movies etc. So they are faced with a choice of which painting to hang, which movie to watch. If the robots produce better paintings cheaper, there won't be much income to be made by human painters.
And that doesn't really matter because UBI will make sure they don't starve and die. Any pittance of income they make is, essentially, pure profit.

If they're not good enough to cover the materials they use, they're free to move on to something else, because they're relieved of the burden of wondering how they're going to pay for their next meal.
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Old 5th October 2017, 05:39 PM   #215
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
The laws of physics are what they are. Humans are just a very complex machine. There's no magic in that realization.
This isn't related to what I said. I'm not claiming that such devices can't be built in the future. I'm saying that the author is wrong because they don't exist now.

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You might suggest that we will never learn enough to build machines with the same capabilities in other ways, but the fact that such machines can be built is proved by the fact that they exist.
Okay, that's a pretty simple demonstration. List these machines that exist now. If you can list them then I'm clearly wrong. However, I don't think you can find even one.
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Old 5th October 2017, 10:44 PM   #216
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
This isn't related to what I said. I'm not claiming that such devices can't be built in the future. I'm saying that the author is wrong because they don't exist now.
Well, given that I was talking to someone else when I made the comment, it's not really related to your claims.


Quote:
Okay, that's a pretty simple demonstration. List these machines that exist now. If you can list them then I'm clearly wrong. However, I don't think you can find even one.
Wasn't it clear from my post? The machines that exist now are humans. The fact that humans exist is proof that the things humans can do can be done. That's pretty straightforward. That fact that humans are just matter in motion obeying the laws of physics proves that the laws of physics are compatible with machines doing everything that humans do.
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Old 5th October 2017, 10:48 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
And that doesn't really matter because UBI will make sure they don't starve and die. Any pittance of income they make is, essentially, pure profit.

If they're not good enough to cover the materials they use, they're free to move on to something else, because they're relieved of the burden of wondering how they're going to pay for their next meal.
Sure, UBI will solve those problems. There may be better solutions but it's at least a proof of principle that a solution exists.

I just don't think that people becoming artists or really anything is going to allow them to compete with automated systems for work. Eventually they won't be able to compete, but they also shouldn't have to. We will have the productivity and surplus such that no one should need to. People spending their time doing things that they find rewarding and enjoyable rather than trying to make an income is a good thing, but the system has to be redesigned to allow it to happen.
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Old 6th October 2017, 01:28 AM   #218
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
when robots take all our job, UBI will be necessary or people will simply starve and die because they can't afford to eat.
While UBI is probably coming, at least (or at first) in social democratic countries of Europe, it is not so straightforward that robots take our jobs, people starve to death. Products and services based on robotization conquer the market because they are _cheaper_ than handmade equivalents. But they are cheaper only if people have the official money that robotmade products are sold for. If people lose their jobs and run out of that money, they will go back to handmaking stuff that are more expensive in the official currency, but cheaper in shadow currencies, simply because people get no official currency as they have lost their official jobs, but they have access to shadow currencies, by selling their handmade products or services in shadow currency.
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Old 6th October 2017, 08:00 AM   #219
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Humans are prone to magical thinking. One job that only humans can do is be human.

If I run the only bar in town that's tended by humans, I will make *bank* off humans who want to be served by one of their own for a change..

If I'm the only human artist taking commissions in the western hemisphere, my luxurious lifestyle is assured, for no other reason than my works are human works.
The relative success of etsy shows that there will always be people who will pay for human made goods.

Same could be said of casual dining restaurants. While some are implementing POS at the table devices (https://www.ziosk.com) that also allow for ordering, there will always be a market for personal service.
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Old 6th October 2017, 05:17 PM   #220
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Well, given that I was talking to someone else when I made the comment, it's not really related to your claims.
Well, if you were talking to someone else then why I was I responding to your reply directly under where you quoted me? You should probably check your post.

Quote:
Wasn't it clear from my post? The machines that exist now are humans. The fact that humans exist is proof that the things humans can do can be done. That's pretty straightforward.
How? Birds can fly; I can't. Some trees can live for centuries; I can't. Some machines can lift several tons; I can't. The fact that something exists only proves that it can be matched by something similar. You've given no indication of similarity with humans.

Quote:
That fact that humans are just matter in motion obeying the laws of physics proves that the laws of physics are compatible with machines doing everything that humans do.
Are you talking about mechanically or in terms of understanding? In terms of mechanics, the simplest arrangement is direct drive using stepper motors. And that creates a problem. A stepper motor of the same torque as a human limb will either be slower for the same power or more powerful for the same speed. Do you have a solution?
In terms of understanding, AI is not there and is making no progress in that direction. This includes Google, Microsoft, Intel, IBM, Elon Musk's "self-driving" car, and several government funded projects.
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Old 6th October 2017, 05:42 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
The relative success of etsy shows that there will always be people who will pay for human made goods.

Same could be said of casual dining restaurants. While some are implementing POS at the table devices (https://www.ziosk.com) that also allow for ordering, there will always be a market for personal service.
There will always be some humans employed. Taking orders is one less job for waiters. That means that fewer will be needed. And less skilled too. Of course if I could order a conversation at a restaurant with a real human then that would be a new job.
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Old 6th October 2017, 06:48 PM   #222
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I might not live to see it but I can't wait until the day I can remotely operate a robot to do my job.
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Old 6th October 2017, 11:49 PM   #223
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Here are some of my axioms: There will always be some jobs that only humans can do. Human desire is limitless.
Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
That sounds like magical thinking to me. You know that humans are made of the same stuff as robots, right? What sort of job can there be that only humans can do?
Originally Posted by barehl View Post
I don't understand your assertion. If you are talking about an unknown but possible future technology then how is that different from magic? As of today, you don't even have to talk about humans. There are abilities that adult rats have and three year old children have that no AI has. This isn't much of a competition yet.
Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
The laws of physics are what they are. Humans are just a very complex machine. There's no magic in that realization.

You might suggest that we will never learn enough to build machines with the same capabilities in other ways, but the fact that such machines can be built is proved by the fact that they exist.
Originally Posted by barehl View Post
This isn't related to what I said. I'm not claiming that such devices can't be built in the future. I'm saying that the author is wrong because they don't exist now.
Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Well, given that I was talking to someone else when I made the comment, it's not really related to your claims.
Originally Posted by barehl View Post
Well, if you were talking to someone else then why I was I responding to your reply directly under where you quoted me? You should probably check your post.
See above: This started with my reply to something said by theprestige. You then commented on that reply, and we began to discuss it. It had nothing to do with any former claims that you made. He claimed that there will always be jobs that only humans can do. That is the claim that was under discussion.
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Old 6th October 2017, 11:52 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
How? Birds can fly; I can't. Some trees can live for centuries; I can't. Some machines can lift several tons; I can't. The fact that something exists only proves that it can be matched by something similar. You've given no indication of similarity with humans.
? I didn't say that because something can be done humans can do it. I said that because something can be done a machine can be built to do it. Birds can fly. Therefore a machine that can fly can be built. Humans can think, therefore a machine that can think can be built.
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Old 7th October 2017, 08:42 AM   #225
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Humans can think, therefore a machine that can think can be built.
Look up Futurama from the 1964 NY World's Fair and see how much of that has come true in the past half century.
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Old 7th October 2017, 09:24 AM   #226
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
Look up Futurama from the 1964 NY World's Fair and see how much of that has come true in the past half century.
Why?

I haven't said anything about a timeline here. Do you disagree that the existence of humans proves that thinking machines are possible? If so, why?
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Old 7th October 2017, 09:49 AM   #227
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A computer, or frankly another human being able to play music better than me, or draw pictures, or write poetry, has never stopped me from playing music, drawing, or writing.

Art is not FIRST about money. Creating art is pleasurable. If I end up with less time I have to work, and have more time to create, who gives a crap what robots can do
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Old 7th October 2017, 11:10 AM   #228
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Do you disagree that the existence of humans proves that thinking machines are possible? If so, why?
I've been working on this for the past four years. I'm quite confident that non-biological consciousness in the Sapiens class can be built. I know some of the specifications but until the theory is finished I can't know all of them.

However, such a machine is not very useful. It doesn't get you anything that a human can't do today. What you need are behaviorally constrained machines with Sapiens level reasoning. I don't know if that is possible. There's nothing I can point to because other animals are conceptually constrained rather than just behaviorally constrained. And, although AI includes behavioral constraint, nothing like Sapiens level reasoning exists or is known to be possible. Is behavior constraint possible without conceptual constraint? That's the question.
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Old 7th October 2017, 01:39 PM   #229
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Originally Posted by Jodie View Post
I might not live to see it but I can't wait until the day I can remotely operate a robot to do my job.
Assuming that:

a) You can afford to own a robot.

b) someone hires your robot

What is "unemployed robots shelter" in American English?
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Old 7th October 2017, 01:40 PM   #230
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Of course it is. We see it in humans all the time.
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