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Tags gun control issues , Las Vegas incidents , shooting incidents

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Old 6th October 2017, 12:46 PM   #1681
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https://gunsmagazine.com/wp-content/.../careful15.jpg

Colt SAA with all 6 bullets stuck in the barrel.

Shooter never noticed the totally different sound and recoil.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 6th October 2017, 01:02 PM   #1682
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I had a squib load that stuck in my Makarov. The ejection port noise was enough to convince me the gun had fired normally. The next shot took the gun apart; cut my thumb and face.
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Old 6th October 2017, 01:19 PM   #1683
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Now it's reported that he did purchase tracer rounds...

Originally Posted by Las Vegas Sun
Las Vegas gunman Stephen Paddock's arsenal included tracer rounds that can improve a shooter's firing accuracy in the dark, a law enforcement official told The Associated Press today.

Paddock bought the .308-caliber and .223-caliber tracer ammunition from a private buyer he met at a Phoenix gun show, a law enforcement official not authorized to comment on the investigation said on condition of anonymity...

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2017/oc...-vegas-probe-g
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Old 6th October 2017, 01:30 PM   #1684
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Now it's reported that he did purchase tracer rounds...




https://lasvegassun.com/news/2017/oc...-vegas-probe-g
Will the media shout "gun show loophole" over that?

Tracers are nothing special, really.

They occasionally start grass or forest fires at ranges because with the short distances, the round often keeps burning for a bit when it lands on the ground. The tracer compound hasn't burned up yet.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 6th October 2017, 01:34 PM   #1685
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20mm Oerlikon cannon on ships. In the Arctic the first couple of rounds in the drum are solidto blow any ice out before you put an explosive round up.
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Old 6th October 2017, 01:58 PM   #1686
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Will the media shout "gun show loophole" over that?

Tracers are nothing special, really.

They occasionally start grass or forest fires at ranges because with the short distances, the round often keeps burning for a bit when it lands on the ground. The tracer compound hasn't burned up yet.
Yeah, but now we get to hear the same people who say that silencers should be illegal because people can't hear the shots coming say that tracers should be illegal because people can see the shots coming.
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Old 6th October 2017, 02:16 PM   #1687
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Originally Posted by Cleon View Post
Yeah, but now we get to hear the same people who say that silencers should be illegal because people can't hear the shots coming say that tracers should be illegal because people can see the shots coming.
Schroedingers sniper: you can either hear him shooting, or see him shooting. Not both.
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Old 6th October 2017, 02:26 PM   #1688
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
The Bellagio and a few others have been "wanding" casino guests for a while now, or making them walk through metal detectors, apparently.

But not just to check in to the hotel.
And I suspect that has as much to do with detecting possible cheating devices as much as anything else....
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Old 6th October 2017, 02:32 PM   #1689
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Good news, everyone - CNN has solved the mystery! Apparently Paddock was radicalized not by ISIS or Hamas or anything - it was Royal Caribbean.
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Old 6th October 2017, 02:49 PM   #1690
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Originally Posted by Cleon View Post
Good news, everyone - CNN has solved the mystery! Apparently Paddock was radicalized not by ISIS or Hamas or anything - it was Royal Caribbean.

I can see that as a possibility.
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Old 6th October 2017, 03:01 PM   #1691
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
It's reported that he had been purchasing guns for 20 years. It's not reported if he has all the guns ever bought or sold some or what.

Yes, I believe they have located 43 of the 50 he has purchased in total over 20 years. The "spree" I reference is the 33 guns acquired in just the last year, beginning in October 2016. That is a very remarkable uptick.
They are looking at events just prior to the Oct 2016 purchase to see if there is a possible trigger.
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Old 6th October 2017, 03:43 PM   #1692
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Campos wasn't randomly roaming the hallways...

Originally Posted by CNN
An open door a few rooms away from the Las Vegas suite of the man who was gunning down concertgoers at a music festival set off an alarm that prompted a response from a security guard, Clark County Undersheriff Kevin C. McMahill said Friday.

Authorities believe that the guard drew the attention of mass murderer Stephen Paddock away from the chaos below and toward the hallway outside his room.

The guard, Jesus Campos, was shot in the leg while checking on the alarm and according to a police-reported timeline, Paddock never fired on the crowd below again.

The alarm from a room "a number of doors down" from Paddock's likely was a coincidence, McMahill told CNN's "The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer." The door was not forced open, had been open for a while, and Paddock didn't have the keys to that room. McMahill said that door either had been left open or didn't shut completely.
More...

Originally Posted by CNN
Authorities do not believe another person used Stephen Paddock's room key at the Mandalay Bay hotel.

Investigators have reviewed "voluminous amounts of video" from many different locations including Mandalay Bay and have not seen any other person they think at this point is another suspect.

McMahill said police don't know what the killer was going to do with 50 pounds of explosives that were found in his car.

Paddock brought the guns and ammunition he had in his hotel suite over the course of several days, the undersheriff told CNN.

The FBI said it was going to put up billboards around Las Vegas seeking witnesses and people who might have interacted with the gunman.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/06/us/las...ion/index.html
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Old 6th October 2017, 04:14 PM   #1693
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Campos wasn't randomly roaming the hallways...

More...


http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/06/us/las...ion/index.html

Thank you!
The 'door ajar' info had been thrown out there with no explanation of whose door it was or how it was connected, just that the security guard went to investigate and was shot.

I wonder what he knew about the gunfire sounds that had been going on when he arrived on that floor?
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Old 6th October 2017, 04:33 PM   #1694
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Does anyone else think that there is still going to be some big news announced on this incident?
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Old 6th October 2017, 04:59 PM   #1695
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Does anyone else think that there is still going to be some big news announced on this incident?
I guess it depends on what you mean by big. I don't think there will be any bombshell news. I don't think a motive will be found in spite of the Sheriff saying that it will be found. I believe that a motive will be conjectured based on a range of circumstances (bits and pieces) but not from any one thing. I think that the portrait painting of Paddock is already almost complete.

I'm interested in his actual financial status graphed over time. I'm interested in his gambling win/loss ratio over time. I'm interested in knowing if he was heading towards being broke and he knew it. He was absolutely addicted to big money gambling and if he realized that he was going to run out of money then that reality might bring on psychosis. He appears to also have been a devoted alcoholic and that probably makes it all worse.
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Old 6th October 2017, 05:16 PM   #1696
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I also think that there is no real solid basis for the Sheriff saying that he was certainly looking for a way out of that hotel. I suspect that he was again speculating (and presenting as fact) and it was based on Paddock having 1,600 rounds of ammo and Tannerite in his vehicle in the hotel parking lot. But there were no guns in that vehicle. I betcha the Sheriff thinks that those things were sitting there because Paddock wanted them when he walked out of the hotel. If so, there are certainly alternative theories that don't involve him really planning on getting out or thinking that it was realistic.

The ammo and Tannerite in his car is pretty much useless to him unless he brings a gun(s) out of that hotel with him.
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Old 6th October 2017, 05:55 PM   #1697
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I guess it depends on what you mean by big. I don't think there will be any bombshell news. I don't think a motive will be found in spite of the Sheriff saying that it will be found. I believe that a motive will be conjectured based on a range of circumstances (bits and pieces) but not from any one thing. I think that the portrait painting of Paddock is already almost complete.

I'm interested in his actual financial status graphed over time. I'm interested in his gambling win/loss ratio over time. I'm interested in knowing if he was heading towards being broke and he knew it. He was absolutely addicted to big money gambling and if he realized that he was going to run out of money then that reality might bring on psychosis. He appears to also have been a devoted alcoholic and that probably makes it all worse.
Yeah, something looks funny (to me) with the money. I've seen that he worked his last job 30 years ago, and that he made ~5 million gambling in 2015, and that he went on a bunch of cruises, etc.

Do people really make money gambling like that over time? I thought no, but don't really know that world very well. If not the gambling, where did all of the money come from? None of the jobs he has been mentioned as having sounded particularly lucrative, and it seems he's been living a somewhat speedy lifestyle for a while.

The other aspect that seems strange is that he didn't let a motive be known. It seems like he really wanted to create a spectacle and make a point of some sort, but left no indication of what it is. No note, no online rant (unless it is still going to be published), and no other indicators of motive. Think of how this contrasts with people like the Unabomber, the Zodiac killer, etc.
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Old 6th October 2017, 06:20 PM   #1698
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Yeah, something looks funny (to me) with the money. I've seen that he worked his last job 30 years ago, and that he made ~5 million gambling in 2015, and that he went on a bunch of cruises, etc.

Do people really make money gambling like that over time? I thought no, but don't really know that world very well. If not the gambling, where did all of the money come from? None of the jobs he has been mentioned as having sounded particularly lucrative, and it seems he's been living a somewhat speedy lifestyle for a while.
Tax rules require casinos to fill out a tax form and report any win over $1,200. The Vegas Shooter liked playing video poker at $125 a hand. At that level any time he got four of a kind or better on a Jacks or Better machine would result in a hand pay and a tax form. When filling taxes the total of all your winnings ends up on your form 1040. The money dumped into the machines is considered a deduction. I doubt he he came out $5 million ahead in 2015.
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Old 6th October 2017, 06:27 PM   #1699
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Yeah, something looks funny (to me) with the money. I've seen that he worked his last job 30 years ago, and that he made ~5 million gambling in 2015, and that he went on a bunch of cruises, etc.

Do people really make money gambling like that over time? I thought no, but don't really know that world very well. If not the gambling, where did all of the money come from? None of the jobs he has been mentioned as having sounded particularly lucrative, and it seems he's been living a somewhat speedy lifestyle for a while.

The other aspect that seems strange is that he didn't let a motive be known. It seems like he really wanted to create a spectacle and make a point of some sort, but left no indication of what it is. No note, no online rant (unless it is still going to be published), and no other indicators of motive. Think of how this contrasts with people like the Unabomber, the Zodiac killer, etc.
I think the mystery of his money will be related to his father.

From NYT article:
Quote:
But they had this in common: A skill at concealing their criminal plans so carefully that they seemed to materialize from nowhere.
...
[Benjamin Paddock] returned to bingo, this time opening his own church so he could keep all the profits, but he could not stay out of trouble. State authorities charged him with racketeering in the 1980s; Mr. Paddock settled civil charges and avoided jail after paying $623,000. He eventually left Oregon for Texas, where he died in 1998.
That big fine he paid was in 1987(30 years ago). He died in January 1998(nearly 20 years ago).

So Stephen, the eldest son has no regular job starting 30 years ago, and starts buying guns 20 years ago, at age 44.

I think there will be a financial trail here.

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Old 6th October 2017, 06:42 PM   #1700
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
I think the mystery of his money will be related to his father.

From NYT article:


That big fine he paid was in 1987(30 years ago). He died in January 1998(nearly 20 years ago).

So Stephen, the eldest son has no regular job starting 30 years ago, and starts buying guns 20 years ago, at age 44.

I think there will be a financial trail here.
That's what I was thinking, as well.
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Old 6th October 2017, 06:54 PM   #1701
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Originally Posted by Kestrel View Post
Tax rules require casinos to fill out a tax form and report any win over $1,200.
I keep seeing $10,000 in articles. What is that?
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Old 6th October 2017, 06:56 PM   #1702
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
I think the mystery of his money will be related to his father.

That big fine he paid was in 1987(30 years ago). He died in January 1998(nearly 20 years ago).

So Stephen, the eldest son has no regular job starting 30 years ago, and starts buying guns 20 years ago, at age 44.

I think there will be a financial trail here.
What do you mean by mystery? We keep reading about money from real estate and gambling.
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Old 6th October 2017, 07:06 PM   #1703
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
What do you mean by mystery? We keep reading about money from real estate and gambling.
Well you can rule out gambling, unless he was counting cards in blackjack or had one of those devices that let a person cheat in slots or video poker and that would have drawn attention. The house always wins in the long run.

So that leaves real estate. It is possible to make millions in real estate.
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Old 6th October 2017, 07:42 PM   #1704
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Well you can rule out gambling, unless he was counting cards in blackjack or had one of those devices that let a person cheat in slots or video poker and that would have drawn attention. The house always wins in the long run.
Mandalay Bay video poker machines pay out a maximum of 99.17%, or $99.17 for every $100 wagered. That's the calculated odds for their machines. He played at other casinos as well and they may have different payouts.

In an extremely long run and if those odds were right at that figure, a $10million expenditure would pay you back $9.917million. You have not profited at all but you are still very much a millionaire.

The question remains on how much did he lose and is he approaching broke.
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Old 6th October 2017, 08:09 PM   #1705
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
What do you mean by mystery? We keep reading about money from real estate and gambling.
Well if he is in real estate, there should be rental managers, brokers, an LLC, assessors documents, property taxes, title records, etc... I have not heard any of that revealed (with the exception that he bought his personal homes).
We have not seen his reported income or what he claimed on taxes for the last 20-30 years.
We don't know if his father had money or stashed money and left it to him, and perhaps taught him how to launder it.

All of that is still a mystery.

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Old 6th October 2017, 08:10 PM   #1706
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I keep seeing $10,000 in articles. What is that?
That's a different requirement from what Kestrel is citing. 10K cash transactions and 10K transfers are reported as part of terrorist funding tracking.
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Old 6th October 2017, 08:12 PM   #1707
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Well if he is in real estate, there should be rental managers, brokers, an LLC, assessors documents, property taxes, title records, etc... I have not heard any of that revealed (with the exception that he bought his personal homes).
We have not seen his reported income or what he claimed on taxes for the last 20-30 years.
We don't know if his father had money or stashed money and left it to him, and perhaps taught him how to launder it.

All of that is still a mystery.
I don't link have links handy but not all of that is mystery. There is record of a couple million dollar profit on an apartment complex and his tax returns have been examined for at least one year to have show gambling income in the multi-millions.
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Old 6th October 2017, 08:24 PM   #1708
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
I don't link have links handy but not all of that is mystery. There is record of a couple million dollar profit on an apartment complex and his tax returns have been examined for at least one year to have show gambling income in the multi-millions.
Thanks! Seems real estate details came out in the last day showing that his mother helped him to start. From NPR article.
Quote:
Paddock appears to have started his real estate investments in November 1985 with the purchase of a modest house in Los Angeles on El Paso Drive. Two years later, with the help of his mother, he bought a small apartment building, also in Los Angeles for $725,000.
And then it goes on to talk about real estate holdings since then.
So that is somewhat solved of where he got the money to start - from his mother, in 1987....the year his dad paid out a huge fine for racketeering.

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Old 6th October 2017, 10:17 PM   #1709
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Woman identified as prostitute.
Some ammo bought under a different name.

Quote:
The woman who was seen with Las Vegas gunman Stephen Paddock days before the massacre was a prostitute, officials tell ABC News.

Authorities did not elaborate on the woman's identity.

Meantime, investigators are still trying to figure out whether Paddock acted alone. Authorities believe he may have had an accomplice, based on the elaborate planning on Sunday night's rampage.

Officials also believe he had help because of the amount of guns in his hotel room, and because some of the ammo was bought under someone else's name.
Local prostitutes knew Paddock as a regular customer and may provide key info to profilers who don't have much to work with.

It doesn't say if the different name on the ammo purchase is real or fake or someone Paddock knew.

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Old 6th October 2017, 10:40 PM   #1710
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His Property Manager in Texas til 2012 gives a very friendly review of her old boss.
Quote:
“From the night he came to the door when he bought the property, to the very end, our personalities just clicked,” said Crawford. “He was above the normal in a good way, in a beautiful way, for lack of a better term. You wanted to be around him because he was cool, he was cool to hang out with, he made you laugh.”
She said he was relaxed, not intense. “He’d sit back in the chair and just talk,” Crawford said. He’d watch comedies and romantic movies on Crawford’s Netflix account.

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Old 7th October 2017, 07:10 AM   #1711
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
20mm Oerlikon cannon on ships. In the Arctic the first couple of rounds in the drum are solidto blow any ice out before you put an explosive round up.
Makes perfect sense to me!!!!!
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Old 7th October 2017, 09:37 AM   #1712
Bob001
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Originally Posted by Kestrel View Post
Tax rules require casinos to fill out a tax form and report any win over $1,200. The Vegas Shooter liked playing video poker at $125 a hand. At that level any time he got four of a kind or better on a Jacks or Better machine would result in a hand pay and a tax form. When filling taxes the total of all your winnings ends up on your form 1040. The money dumped into the machines is considered a deduction. I doubt he he came out $5 million ahead in 2015.
Skilled poker players can come out ahead at table games. That's what poker tournaments are all about. Question: Is skill a factor in video poker, or is that net loss rate pretty much guaranteed, like slots? Did this guy ever play table poker? Has anyone said whether he was any good at it?
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Old 7th October 2017, 09:48 AM   #1713
William Parcher
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Question: Is skill a factor in video poker, or is that net loss rate pretty much guaranteed, like slots?
See post #1502. The skill maybe only comes from a very rapid button finger. They seem to rely on playing the maximum number of hands possible in a given timeframe. High paying jackpot hands come up with somewhat knowable frequency. They want those so they strive to maximize their plays. The casinos are open 24/7, so the player decides when to stop.


Quote:
Did this guy ever play table poker? Has anyone said whether he was any good at it?
I don't recall any mention of that. He did regularly attend video poker tournaments for high rollers and some were invitation only. Some casino staff said he did some sports gambling.
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Old 7th October 2017, 09:55 AM   #1714
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Skilled poker players can come out ahead at table games. That's what poker tournaments are all about. Question: Is skill a factor in video poker, or is that net loss rate pretty much guaranteed, like slots? Did this guy ever play table poker? Has anyone said whether he was any good at it?
Nevada law require that the machines deal random card sequences using a virtual deck of cards. There's no set payout ratio it would seem.
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Old 7th October 2017, 10:33 AM   #1715
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Not a legally mandated one, but there is still a set payout ratio for each poker machine, even one that deals completely fair. Manipulating that ratio is accomplished by altering the win conditions (minimum winning hand strength) and altering the rewards for hand strength (for example, you'll never get anything approaching real odds on a royal flush payout).
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Old 7th October 2017, 10:54 AM   #1716
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Skilled poker players can come out ahead at table games. That's what poker tournaments are all about. Question: Is skill a factor in video poker, or is that net loss rate pretty much guaranteed, like slots? Did this guy ever play table poker? Has anyone said whether he was any good at it?

This was posted up thread (or in the other one):

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/u...ling.html?_r=0
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Old 7th October 2017, 11:26 AM   #1717
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
I'm not sure that the hallways are covered with video surveillance. I thought I had read that they had cameras on the elevator lobbies but not the hallways.

Where did you see this?
It's Vegas. Someone's always watching you
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Old 7th October 2017, 01:15 PM   #1718
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
Not a legally mandated one, but there is still a set payout ratio for each poker machine, even one that deals completely fair. Manipulating that ratio is accomplished by altering the win conditions (minimum winning hand strength) and altering the rewards for hand strength (for example, you'll never get anything approaching real odds on a royal flush payout).
Casino's control the payback of video poker machines with an internal setting. Changing that setting changes the payback table shown on the machine. A jacks or better video poker machine that pays 9 for a full house and six for a flush returns over 99% of bets to a player using optimum strategy. A machine returning 8 and 5 for those same hands has substantially worse odds.

Slot machines work in a similar fashion but there is no easy way for a player to determine the payback.
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Old 7th October 2017, 01:51 PM   #1719
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
His sudden gun buying spree started in October 2016. The movie "The Accountant" came out Oct 14. I have not seen the movie but plot has definite parallels to Paddock.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...16_film%29.png
The accountant in the film was a jerk with aspergers.

Paddock was...oh wait...
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Old 7th October 2017, 01:58 PM   #1720
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I guess it depends on what you mean by big. I don't think there will be any bombshell news. I don't think a motive will be found in spite of the Sheriff saying that it will be found. I believe that a motive will be conjectured based on a range of circumstances (bits and pieces) but not from any one thing. I think that the portrait painting of Paddock is already almost complete.

I'm interested in his actual financial status graphed over time. I'm interested in his gambling win/loss ratio over time. I'm interested in knowing if he was heading towards being broke and he knew it. He was absolutely addicted to big money gambling and if he realized that he was going to run out of money then that reality might bring on psychosis. He appears to also have been a devoted alcoholic and that probably makes it all worse.
I have a great conspiracy theory.

Maybe Paddock was inspired by the country music lyrics of the Flying Burrito Brothers, 'Sin City':

Quote:
This old earthquake's gonna leave me in the poor house
It seems like this whole town's insane
On the thirty-first floor a gold plated door
Won't keep out the Lord's burning rain
Except he picked the wrong floor number. Unless he used the Brit system, then it would be the 31st floor he shot from.
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