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Tags donald trump , Trump controversies

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Old 11th October 2017, 06:26 PM   #41
TragicMonkey
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Originally Posted by Random View Post
This all assumes that they have given him control over our nuclear arsenal in the first place. It would be much easier to just give him a dummy briefcase and tell him it is the football...
If only someone would hand him a phone with an app that looks like Twitter but doesn't actually publish anything!
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Old 11th October 2017, 06:32 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
If only someone would hand him a phone with an app that looks like Twitter but doesn't actually publish anything!
Greatest comment on the Trump Presidency. TM wins the internet.

Nommed, etc.
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Old 11th October 2017, 06:45 PM   #43
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Skynet is active. Actually, I might trust Skynet more than Trump. Let me drink another bottle of wine and think...
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Old 11th October 2017, 07:47 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
They are not.
Who says so? The U.S., unlike many nations, has never renounced its right to maintain "first-strike" or "launch on warning" capability. There is nothing -- in the laws, anyway -- that would prevent Trump from ordering a nuclear strike against North Korea, Iran or anybody else he wanted to whenever he wants. A bill has been introduced in Congress to prohibit the President from launching nukes unless Congress declares war; it has zero chance of passage.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/24/...ons-act-trump/
https://lieu.house.gov/media-center/...ng-first-use-0
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Old 11th October 2017, 08:38 PM   #45
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Anyone who thinks Trump will nuke North Korea is being a full blown idiot. I have no nicer way to say it. I would laugh if it weren't so disturbing. We survived the cold war, we will sure as hell survive this temper tantrum.

I think it's fine if Kim thinks we will. He may be stupid enough to actually believe it.
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:30 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Anyone who thinks Trump will nuke North Korea is being a full blown idiot. I have no nicer way to say it. I would laugh if it weren't so disturbing. We survived the cold war, we will sure as hell survive this temper tantrum.

I think it's fine if Kim thinks we will. He may be stupid enough to actually believe it.
Do you believe that Trump will not nuke out of his own analytical prowess, volition and mental stability, or because people around him can avoid it? We are talking about the man who, according to a leading GOP senator and former supporter, needs supervision like a toddler.

I surely do not think highly of Kim, but Kim seems more intelligent and politically savvy than Trump. It seems that Trump is actually the one who believes the other's threats.
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:30 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Anyone who thinks Trump will nuke North Korea is being a full blown idiot. I have no nicer way to say it. I would laugh if it weren't so disturbing. We survived the cold war, we will sure as hell survive this temper tantrum.
I wish I had your absolute certainty, but I tend to agree. Time and again Donald Trump, candidate Trump and President Trump has shown himself to be a petulant blowhard who makes all kinds of lurid threats but who generally lacks the patience, skills, knowledge or courage to follow through on them.

He'll only do something if it's easy to do and can be done on the spur of the moment.

Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
I think it's fine if Kim thinks we will. He may be stupid enough to actually believe it.
I don't think any of the leaders of North Korea have been stupid. They seem to act rationally in the context of their own narrow self interest.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:01 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Yeah, a bit like those automated systems that traded stocks and shares (or something) catastrophically and had to be rolled back?

Show me a foolproof I.T. system and I'll happily hand over the fate of a billion people to it. Ain't had one yet.

Meanwhile - I seriously doubt that there isn't a plan already in place to deny The Orange One access to the football.
When you think about that really doesn't make a lot of sense as an argument from principle as there are no foolproof systems regardless of whether you put an "IT" in front of systems or not.

Surely the question should be would the IT system be better than what we have now, and of course that "better" is very subjective?

I suspect that much of our newer military assets already extensively use "IT systems" now.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:20 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
He'll only do something if it's easy to do and can be done on the spur of the moment.
"open football"
"select target"
"press send"
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:28 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
"open football"
"select target"
"press send"
If it really is that easy, then that's problematic (and the reason why I don't share mgidm86's absolute certainty that President Trump won't launch a preemptive nuclear strike).
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:31 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I wish I had your absolute certainty, but I tend to agree. Time and again Donald Trump, candidate Trump and President Trump has shown himself to be a petulant blowhard who makes all kinds of lurid threats but who generally lacks the patience, skills, knowledge or courage to follow through on them.

He'll only do something if it's easy to do and can be done on the spur of the moment.
Can this be interpreted as Trump is unskilled to work the football and issue an order to launch nukes?

Then he is also unskilled to do the same if there is an actual incoming attack.

Let's hope Putin isn't lurking the ISF.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:46 AM   #52
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Has Trump lost the nuclear football? Has he looked everywhere?
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:51 AM   #53
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I thought that using nuclear weapons in a first strike was a war crime?
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:03 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Computers do only what humans have programmed them to do. If you want to open a debate about flaws in artificial intelligence, that's a different thread. But the idea that the world could be ended because of a programming error would not be popular.
In response to this and several of the posts debating an automated system, I present a real-world example of a computer system which is in charge of destroying a $70 million dollar vehicle + payload and must take into account many, many factors, including flight trajectory and possible damage to people and property.

It's not quite nuclear war type stuff, but SpaceX regularly entrust their very, very expensive vehicles (and customer payloads) entirely to an automated system.

Quote:
The on-board safety system, relying on Global Positioning System satellite navigation data, replaces decades-old radars and tracking equipment that required military officers to manually send commands to destroy errant boosters, and their human and robot passengers, before they could threaten people and property.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/02/2...launch-tempos/
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:04 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by p0lka View Post
I thought that using nuclear weapons in a first strike was a war crime?
Not if you are America: might makes right, we are told by fascists.
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:15 AM   #56
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Well, Trump might be quicker than any president before him to make a decision to make a strike or not.
He will most likely make the wrong decision, but at least it will be quick.
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Old 12th October 2017, 03:01 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
In the mean time, we should make sure each nuclear launch facility--e.g., ballistic missile submarines--should be staffed by one white senior officer and one black senior officer. Final launch authority should be argued out between them, the decision resting with whichever officer has better command of the crew's loyalty at the moment of truth.
This. Also, there should be some kind of equine-based component.
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Old 12th October 2017, 03:50 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Not if you are America: might makes right, we are told by fascists.
This makes it difficult to have a serious conversation with you.
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Old 12th October 2017, 03:51 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Seismosaurus View Post
This. Also, there should be some kind of equine-based component.
I'm not familiar with the reference.
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Old 12th October 2017, 04:28 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
This makes it difficult to have a serious conversation with you.
I never intended for my conversations to be easy for those who are wrong
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Old 12th October 2017, 04:59 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Anyone who thinks Trump will nuke North Korea is being a full blown idiot. I have no nicer way to say it.
I'm glad you agree that Trump is a full blown idiot.
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Old 12th October 2017, 06:02 AM   #62
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I should think than in the circles of power where it counts, any question as to the President's competence regarding matters of judgement re nukes should be an automatic trigger for impeachment. To me it's intolerable to have to contemplate just the possibility that it might take a physical restraining (or even subtler constraining) by underlings to keep the so-called 'leader of the free world' from executing a rash action out of pique or ignorance. Such a doofus/madman has no place at the pinnacle of power.
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Old 12th October 2017, 07:38 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
"open football"
"select target"
"press send"
Fixing that for you:

Trump: poses for photo with football being held by North Korean representative at Trump's golf club
Trump: Orders someone to open football
Trump: Sees Fox news about a third rate comedian saying something about size of Trump's hands
Trump: 6 hours later after 7 tweets...... zzzzzz..... zzzzz.... z......

The world gets to live another day!
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Old 12th October 2017, 11:22 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If it really is that easy, then that's problematic (and the reason why I don't share mgidm86's absolute certainty that President Trump won't launch a preemptive nuclear strike).
It's not quite that easy. The Missiles are still manually operated by people manning the silos, and word could be passed to themto not obey any order to launch without double checking. Somethng like this happened in the last days of Richard Nixon.
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Old 12th October 2017, 11:26 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Octavo View Post
In response to this and several of the posts debating an automated system, I present a real-world example of a computer system which is in charge of destroying a $70 million dollar vehicle + payload and must take into account many, many factors, including flight trajectory and possible damage to people and property.

It's not quite nuclear war type stuff, but SpaceX regularly entrust their very, very expensive vehicles (and customer payloads) entirely to an automated system.
True. But those systems are amenable to simulator testing and real-world testing. SpaceX has had a few catastrophes. A system that might kick off a global holocaust is hugely more critical and must not go wrong once.
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:46 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
It's not quite that easy. The Missiles are still manually operated by people manning the silos, and word could be passed to themto not obey any order to launch without double checking. Somethng like this happened in the last days of Richard Nixon.
This has been discussed at length by experts. There is no formal mechanism to prevent the President from launching nukes at will. The SecDef, the Joint Chiefs etc. might find a way to block him, but he could fire them and go down the chain of command. But any intervention would have to take place at the top. The guys in the silos, the guys flying the bombers and driving the subs, will respond immediately to an authenticated order. That's how they are selected and trained. They're not gonna ask "Is the President crazy?"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.4ae93000bd46
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:50 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by p0lka View Post
I thought that using nuclear weapons in a first strike was a war crime?
Why would you think so? The U.S. has never renounced the possibility of launch on warning. And after a nuclear war, investigating allegations of war crimes won't be anybody's highest priority.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:04 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Why would you think so? The U.S. has never renounced the possibility of launch on warning. And after a nuclear war, investigating allegations of war crimes won't be anybody's highest priority.
Depends on the target? I doubt if China would risk getting themselves nuked by starting nuclear retaliation for a US first-strike on North Korea, for example. So it isn't 'nuclear war' in the sense of '******* global holocaust' at that point, just the use of nukes.

Then the diplomatic row kicks in.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:15 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by p0lka View Post
I thought that using nuclear weapons in a first strike was a war crime?
Certainly has never been prosecuted, though it could have been once.

Who would have declared it a war crime after 1945 and by what authority? I suppose you're suggesting that the UN has done so or some similar body, but it's not clear to me that this has happened. I'd like to see a reference.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:16 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I never intended for my conversations to be easy for those who are wrong
You sure seem confident it is a war crime. Could we have some proof?

Note: I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'd prefer something more than your say-so.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:19 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
It's not quite that easy. The Missiles are still manually operated by people manning the silos, and word could be passed to themto not obey any order to launch without double checking. Somethng like this happened in the last days of Richard Nixon.
That was not a legal order, as I understand it. So, this "comfort" requires that someone in the cabinet be so concerned about the possibility that he breaks the law by surreptitiously contact some number of folks (I don't think it was everyone in the silos, but I could be wrong).

It's not much of a comfort.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:37 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Anyone who thinks Trump will nuke North Korea is being a full blown idiot. I have no nicer way to say it. I would laugh if it weren't so disturbing. We survived the cold war, we will sure as hell survive this temper tantrum.
.....
I sure hope I'm an idiot. But the evidence from Trump's own mouth points in the other direction. Throughout the Cold War, American leaders in both parties were veteran public servants, often WWII, Korea and Vietnam combat veterans, who knew something about history, law and public responsibility.

Today, the top guy is a real estate shyster and reality-TV host. He could literally do anything because he feels like it.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:44 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
Certainly has never been prosecuted, though it could have been once.

Who would have declared it a war crime after 1945 and by what authority? I suppose you're suggesting that the UN has done so or some similar body, but it's not clear to me that this has happened. I'd like to see a reference.
Had a quick look for it re: the geneva conventions, found this,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protocol_I
I know its wikipedia, don't shoot me.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:58 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by p0lka View Post
Had a quick look for it re: the geneva conventions, found this,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protocol_I
I know its wikipedia, don't shoot me.
Thank you for the citation. Apparently, under this provision, every use of a nuclear weapon would be a war crime, whether first strike or retaliatory.

But, if I read correctly, the protocol has not been ratified and so does is not relevant today as to whether or not using a nuke is a war crime.

Quote:
However, the United States, Iran, and Pakistan signed it on 12 December 1977, which signifies an intention to work towards ratifying it.
That might just be poor writing. I don't know how these things work, but almost all countries have signed it, so perhaps it is "in effect" for the signatories.
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:15 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
"open football"
"select target"
"press send"
Luckily it's not that easy. The "Football" contains a bunch of codes that represent various attack plans or targets, as well as an authorization code. The President has to go through the code book to determine the codes to send, plus his authorization code. Since it is unlikely that any of those codes will include his name, he'll probably get bored after a few lines of gibberish looking letter jumbles and give up on the whole idea, demanding he just be allowed to install a big red button on his desk instead.
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:46 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Why would you think so? The U.S. has never renounced the possibility of launch on warning. And after a nuclear war, investigating allegations of war crimes won't be anybody's highest priority.
Why not?
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:51 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
It's not quite that easy. The Missiles are still manually operated by people manning the silos, and word could be passed to themto not obey any order to launch without double checking. Somethng like this happened in the last days of Richard Nixon.
But Nixon did not attempt to launch nuclear missiles. If he had done then whose order would have been accepted over that of the president?
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Old 12th October 2017, 03:10 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
If only someone would hand him a phone with an app that looks like Twitter but doesn't actually publish anything!
It would need to be functionally identical, bots simulating not only the usual crowd of useful idiots supporting him as well as plenty of naysayers crying "Trump! You suck!" and other impolite aphorisms, so he doesn't twig.

Did someone say crowdfund? I can possibly pony up a dollar or two to save the world.
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Old 12th October 2017, 03:15 PM   #79
Oystein
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
Certainly has never been prosecuted, though it could have been once.

Who would have declared it a war crime after 1945 and by what authority? I suppose you're suggesting that the UN has done so or some similar body, but it's not clear to me that this has happened. I'd like to see a reference.
A war of agression is illegal. A non-retaliatory strike with WMD may well constitute genocide if launched "all out", especially against a smaller and densely populated country like North Koreo (>500 inhabitants per square mile, similar to Italy or Switzerland; 6x that of the USA; size about that of New Mexico)
  1. The United Nations Charter - Articles 1, 2, 33 and 39 (1945)
  2. Genocide Convention (1948) (would depend on actual impact of nuclear first strike)
  3. The Nuremberg Principles - Principle VI (1950)
  4. More information: War of aggression

It is helpful, IMO, to point out that the USA was a driving force behind 1. and 3., while being very reluctant to accept full responsibility for 2.
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Last edited by Oystein; 12th October 2017 at 03:17 PM.
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Old 12th October 2017, 06:25 PM   #80
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Are all preemptive strikes illegal?
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