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Old 12th October 2017, 10:56 AM   #3361
3point14
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Anyone who doesn't support unlimited immigration is a racist!

Umpteen pages of discussion and you've straw-manned it down to this, woefully inaccurate, statement.

Well done for being part of the problem.
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Old 12th October 2017, 10:59 AM   #3362
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
Presumably you have some intelligent, constructive suggestion to make about the Irish border. You not being a racist an all will have a proper understanding that its about movement of goods, not people.
Nah, just holding up a mirror to the hysteria.


FWIW: If I were still living in the UK, I would have voted remain but the constant refrains from the remainers here are getting tiresome:
- Brexiters are racists!
- The sky is falling!
- The EU is going to punish us [and we deserve it!]
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Old 12th October 2017, 11:04 AM   #3363
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Umpteen pages of discussion and you've straw-manned it down to this, woefully inaccurate, statement.

Well done for being part of the problem.
Take it up with Information Analyst.
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Old 12th October 2017, 11:06 AM   #3364
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Nah, just holding up a mirror to the hysteria.


FWIW: If I were still living in the UK, I would have voted remain but the constant refrains from the remainers here are getting tiresome:
- Brexiters are racists!
- The sky is falling!
- The EU is going to punish us [and we deserve it!]

That's right, because when some buffoon is setting fire to your house, after a while you should stop complaining about it and just let him get on with his conflagration.
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Old 12th October 2017, 11:18 AM   #3365
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Old 12th October 2017, 11:20 AM   #3366
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Anyone who doesn't support unlimited immigration is a racist!

And if you could just point to the post where anyone advocated unlimited immigration? if you think xenophobia wasn't a factor in the Leave vote just ask Ceptimus, he's made it pretty clear it's all about keeping out the foreigners.
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Old 12th October 2017, 11:50 AM   #3367
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To be fair there is a way that we can have an open border with the EU.

We just need to do what Switzerland does.

It's not on the table at the moment.
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:16 PM   #3368
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It's the EU that are imposing conditions: they have dictated the format of the negotiations; they have insisted that we must agree to pay them huge amounts of money after we leave; they demand that the EU court of justice must remain supreme over British courts after we leave; they won't even discuss trade until we agree to their absurd preconditions.

It's obvious that the EU don't want to negotiate a good deal. They're afraid that other EU countries will also leave after Britain is seen to have benefited by leaving.
As far as I can see, the EU is far more prepared for negotiation than David-three-day-week-Davis but also that whilst a hard Brexit would harm the EU more than a soft Brexit, the UK has even more to lose.

If you want to negotiate, it's a bad idea if you need the agreement far more than the other side.
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:20 PM   #3369
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Anyone who doesn't support unlimited immigration is a racist!
Ceptimus's post essentially argued for what we already have as part of the EU in terms of free trade and the free movement of goods, but without the free movement of people.

If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, I'll fetch the pancakes and hoi-sin sauce....
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:22 PM   #3370
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Nah, just holding up a mirror to the hysteria.


FWIW: If I were still living in the UK, I would have voted remain but the constant refrains from the remainers here are getting tiresome:
- Brexiters are racists!
- The sky is falling!
- The EU is going to punish us [and we deserve it!]
As opposed to:

- Remainers hate the UK
- The future will be unquestionably rosy
- The EU is going to punish us [and we don't deserve it!]
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:27 PM   #3371
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
As opposed to:

- Remainers hate the UK
- The future will be unquestionably rosy
- The EU is going to punish us [and we don't deserve it!]
And somehow the idea that the EU is not going to give us a good deal is not a reason to reconsider.
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Old 12th October 2017, 12:54 PM   #3372
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
And if you could just point to the post where anyone advocated unlimited immigration? if you think xenophobia wasn't a factor in the Leave vote just ask Ceptimus, he's made it pretty clear it's all about keeping out the foreigners.
I only made that clear in your twisted imagination.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:05 PM   #3373
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
As far as I can see, the EU is far more prepared for negotiation than David-three-day-week-Davis but also that whilst a hard Brexit would harm the EU more than a soft Brexit, the UK has even more to lose.

If you want to negotiate, it's a bad idea if you need the agreement far more than the other side.
The main thing the EU want from us is our money. There will be a black hole in the EU finances after we leave. It would be monumentally stupid of us to agree to pay the EU their "divorce bill" at this stage (they've still not said what the amount is but it's rumored to be between fifty and one hundred billion Euros).

If we agree to pay them what they demand, then they have no need to negotiate a trade deal sensibly: it would be in their financial interest to do so but they also want to ensure we get a bad deal to discourage other countries from leaving.

We've offered to continue paying during a two year transition period, but they're still trying to screw more money out of us.

The EU are in breach of Article 50 by still refusing to talk about trade at this point - but they have the power to be in breach and get away with it. The UK's best negotiating tactic still remains what I've been advocating now for months - walk away from the talks, prepare for a hard exit and only return to the talks if and when the EU are prepared to negotiate without preconditions. If the EU are never prepared to negotiate in good faith (likely) then a hard exit is better than what they've offered up till now.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:05 PM   #3374
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I only made that clear in your twisted imagination.
So please explain what concessions you would be willing to make on the free movement of EU citizens? Isn't your redline precisely an end to any immigration from the EU?
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:06 PM   #3375
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The EU isn't going to punish us. It's not going to give non-members like we plan to be the same good deal or better than members. That's kind of the whole bloody point of membership.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:10 PM   #3376
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
The EU isn't going to punish us. It's not going to give non-members like we plan to be the same good deal or better than members. That's kind of the whole bloody point of membership.
Yes, and the EU has set out its requirements, but beyond Davis pointing out that "the clock is ticking" and May coming back to offer something (because Davis is useless) there really hasn't been that much concrete from the UK side.

Almost as though Fox, Davis and Johnson ... and the person who appointed them, are incompetent.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:11 PM   #3377
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The main thing the EU want from us is our money. There will be a black hole in the EU finances after we leave. It would be monumentally stupid of us to agree to pay the EU their "divorce bill" at this stage (they've still not said what the amount is but it's rumored to be between fifty and one hundred billion Euros).

If we agree to pay them what they demand, then they have no need to negotiate a trade deal sensibly: it would be in their financial interest to do so but they also want to ensure we get a bad deal to discourage other countries from leaving.

We've offered to continue paying during a two year transition period, but they're still trying to screw more money out of us.

The EU are in breach of Article 50 by still refusing to talk about trade at this point - but they have the power to be in breach and get away with it. The UK's best negotiating tactic still remains what I've been advocating now for months - walk away from the talks, prepare for a hard exit and only return to the talks if and when the EU are prepared to negotiate without preconditions. If the EU are never prepared to negotiate in good faith (likely) then a hard exit is better than what they've offered up till now.
Or we could just follow the legal advice Theresa May apparently received and ditch Brexit. After all people voted Leave on the promise we would get a better deal than we had, not no deal whatsoever.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:12 PM   #3378
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The main thing the EU want from us is our money. There will be a black hole in the EU finances after we leave. It would be monumentally stupid of us to agree to pay the EU their "divorce bill" at this stage (they've still not said what the amount is but it's rumored to be between fifty and one hundred billion Euros).

If we agree to pay them what they demand, then they have no need to negotiate a trade deal sensibly: it would be in their financial interest to do so but they also want to ensure we get a bad deal to discourage other countries from leaving.

We've offered to continue paying during a two year transition period, but they're still trying to screw more money out of us.

The EU are in breach of Article 50 by still refusing to talk about trade at this point - but they have the power to be in breach and get away with it. The UK's best negotiating tactic still remains what I've been advocating now for months - walk away from the talks, prepare for a hard exit and only return to the talks if and when the EU are prepared to negotiate without preconditions. If the EU are never prepared to negotiate in good faith (likely) then a hard exit is better than what they've offered up till now.
Specifically how are the EU in breach of article 50?
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:45 PM   #3379
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Or we could just follow the legal advice Theresa May apparently received and ditch Brexit. After all people voted Leave on the promise we would get a better deal than we had, not no deal whatsoever.
That course of action, of course, depends on whether the EU wants you back, and whether they agree with the idea that an Article 50 process can be rescinded once set in motion. Mind, all the legal opinions that claim that are from Brits.
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Old 12th October 2017, 01:48 PM   #3380
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
That course of action, of course, depends on whether the EU wants you back, and whether they agree with the idea that an Article 50 process can be rescinded once set in motion. Mind, all the legal opinions that claim that are from Brits.
But as a rule the harder May tries to avoid revealing it the more likely it is to be accurate. Giving up Brexit would be a win for the EU, proving that leaving really isn't a practical option.
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:12 PM   #3381
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
That Irish border will be a bootlegger and smugglers dream. Any price differences will see booze, tobacco and fuel flowing across. It will be impossible to police.
Everyone and his dog knows that. Along with booze, tobacco and fuel, there will be drugs and frakkin' people. Yet brexiteers think somehow this will not happen because rainbows and unicorns.
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:20 PM   #3382
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
We (the UK) don't want to control the movement of goods between Ireland and the UK, so that's not a concern to us.

We do want to control the movement of people, but we also don't want to cause tension - and perhaps eventually fighting/war by scrapping the Good Friday Agreement - so we have to consider the pros and cons.

We've determined that the installation of hard physical infrastructure at the border is likely to provoke violence so we think it better not to do that, and instead attempt to police the movement of people across the border by softer means.
We can hope to find most people illegally living or working on the UK side of the border by means of employment records, tax returns, housing records, bank accounts and similar. Of course that won't catch 100% of illegal immigrants, but neither does a hard border. Admittedly the soft border will be more porous to illegal migration than a hard border but we consider that a price worth paying to hopefully preserve peace.

If the EU insist in installing hard border infrastructure on their side, then they need to raise the money to build it and convince the Irish that it's necessary. If it does get built and, regrettably, result in conflict and violence, then unfortunately both sides will have to deal with that. This would be a terrible tragedy so I hope the EU won't be so stupid as to go down that road; I don't have much confidence in the EU behaving sensibly though so I pin my hopes more on the Irish people and government refusing to install such a dangerous folly - regardless of the EU's demands.
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
That Irish border will be a bootlegger and smugglers dream. Any price differences will see booze, tobacco and fuel flowing across. It will be impossible to police.
Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
Everyone and his dog knows that. Along with booze, tobacco and fuel, there will be drugs and frakkin' people. Yet brexiteers think somehow this will not happen because rainbows and unicorns.

I've tried colour-coding the posts - I think I have identified teh rainbows and unicorns.

It does look as though the Border might be a big stumbling block.
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Old 12th October 2017, 02:32 PM   #3383
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More Brexit woes for May, you would think her party doesn't trust her for some reason...

Hostile Tory rebels delay flagship Brexit bill

Quote:
In total 300 amendments and 54 new clauses have been tabled to the bill, which transfers European law onto the domestic statute book after Brexit, underlining the resistance within the Commons from both opposition parties and some Conservative MPs.
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Old 12th October 2017, 03:37 PM   #3384
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Specifically how are the EU in breach of article 50?
You can read Article 50 and see for yourself. It says that discussions about arrangements after exit should happen and says nothing about the discussions being stalled until the leaving country agrees to hand over money. The EU just made up their agenda for the Brexit negotiations - and we never should have begun talks until they removed their made-up-out-of-nowhere conditions. Too late now. There will be no sanctions against the EU for breaching the terms of their own Article 50.
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Old 12th October 2017, 03:49 PM   #3385
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
After all people voted Leave on the promise we would get a better deal than we had, not no deal whatsoever.
Not true. The referendum question was very clear and made no such promise. The government spent a lot of our own money informing everyone that they thought we'd be worse off if we voted to leave. A glossy brochure was delivered to every household in the country spelling out the government case for remain. Business, TV, and institutions like the Bank of England were overwhelmingly in favour of remaining.

The people, as you know, voted to leave anyway. Most of the posters in these threads have been doing their utmost to deny the democratic will of the people ever since.
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Old 12th October 2017, 04:00 PM   #3386
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Not true. The referendum question was very clear and made no such promise.
This is a bizarre statement, are you trying to pretend now that the Leave campaign didn't make that very promise? Oh but I forget you would prefer everyone to believe that Leave voters supported a diamond hard Brexit regardless of the economic consequences.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You can read Article 50 and see for yourself. It says that discussions about arrangements after exit should happen and says nothing about the discussions being stalled until the leaving country agrees to hand over money.
You really need to try and grasp this, until the financial details are settled there is no way to discuss what those post Brexit arrangements might be. What money the UK pays will have a direct bearing on what we will and won't have access to after Brexit.
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Old 12th October 2017, 07:40 PM   #3387
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post


You really need to try and grasp this, until the financial details are settled there is no way to discuss what those post Brexit arrangements might be. What money the UK pays will have a direct bearing on what we will and won't have access to after Brexit.
You contradict yourself.

If "What money the UK pays will have a direct bearing on what we will and won't have access to after Brexit." then the EU should just give the UK the menu and let them know what they can buy.
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Old 12th October 2017, 07:59 PM   #3388
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
You contradict yourself.

If "What money the UK pays will have a direct bearing on what we will and won't have access to after Brexit." then the EU should just give the UK the menu and let them know what they can buy.
Wrong way round. The bill is for things we agreed to pay for when we were members of the EU, e.g. funding for joint agencies etc many of which were based in the UK, Nigel Farage's pension etc. Not many places want to discuss future bookings with people reluctant to pay for agreements already entered into.
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Old 12th October 2017, 11:37 PM   #3389
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The people, as you know, voted to leave anyway. Most of the posters in these threads have been doing their utmost to deny the democratic will of the people ever since.
Just as you have been doing your utmost to ignore the wishes of the >48% of votes who were against it.
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Old 13th October 2017, 12:00 AM   #3390
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Just as you have been doing your utmost to ignore the wishes of the >48% of votes who were against it.
In a democracy, when a binary decision is made, then the choice has to be what the 52% voted for, not the 48%.
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Old 13th October 2017, 12:05 AM   #3391
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You can read Article 50 and see for yourself. It says that discussions about arrangements after exit should happen and says nothing about the discussions being stalled until the leaving country agrees to hand over money. The EU just made up their agenda for the Brexit negotiations - and we never should have begun talks until they removed their made-up-out-of-nowhere conditions. Too late now. There will be no sanctions against the EU for breaching the terms of their own Article 50.
I did read article 50 for myself that's why I asked. It deals with arrangements for exiting not future trade agreements. It seems that made up out of nowhere describes the position of some party here but I'm not sure it's the EU
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Old 13th October 2017, 12:10 AM   #3392
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
In a democracy, when a binary decision is made, then the choice has to be what the 52% voted for, not the 48%.
A good few of that 52% no longer need to have their will respected as their will no longer exists.

In any case pointing out that 52% of people voted for idiocy is not denying their will.
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Old 13th October 2017, 12:12 AM   #3393
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I did read article 50 for myself that's why I asked. It deals with arrangements for exiting not future trade agreements. It seems that made up out of nowhere describes the position of some party here but I'm not sure it's the EU
Article 50 does include:

Quote:
taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.
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Old 13th October 2017, 01:50 AM   #3394
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
In a democracy, when a binary decision is made, then the choice has to be what the 52% voted for, not the 48%.
The thing is that the 52% didn't all vote for the same thing.
  • Some voted just to give "the establishment" a bloody nose
  • Some voted to ensure that the NHS would get an additional £350m a week
  • Some voted to leave the EU but remain within the EEA - a Norway-style Brexit
  • Some voted for a diamond-hard Brexit
  • Some voted to have all foreigners sent back to where they came from the day after the Brexit vote

Whatever Brexit we end up with, at least some of those who voted Leave will be deeply dissatisfied with it.

I'm also amazed that the view in the government is "Brexit at any cost". If the outcome of Brexit appears to be the complete collapse of the UK economy, widespread shortages of consumer goods, fuel and food, power cuts and so on I don't understand how a government could proceed.

Last edited by The Don; 13th October 2017 at 01:51 AM.
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Old 13th October 2017, 02:06 AM   #3395
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Desperate pseudo logic there. However you try to twist things, the majority voted to leave. I know you want to remain or "leave" in a manner that is roughly equivalent to remaining. If you get that then it will be be a defeat for democracy.
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Old 13th October 2017, 02:15 AM   #3396
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Desperate pseudo logic there. However you try to twist things, the majority voted to leave. I know you want to remain or "leave" in a manner that is roughly equivalent to remaining. If you get that then it will be be a defeat for democracy.
By that measure If we end up with a diamond-hard Brexit then that too would be a defeat for democracy because a significant proportion of those who voted leave did so on the proviso that:
  • We'd stay in the EEA and/or
  • £350m a week would immediately be made available to the NHS and/or
  • The UK wouldn't suffer an economic reversal and/or
  • We'd have a better deal on trade with the EU than we currently have and/or
  • All foreigners would be rounded up and shipped home
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Old 13th October 2017, 03:06 AM   #3397
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Article 50 does include:
Which says nothing about negotiating future trade arrangements.
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Old 13th October 2017, 03:53 AM   #3398
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Which says nothing about negotiating future trade arrangements.
Or agreeing future citizen rights, or lots of other detail...
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Old 13th October 2017, 04:40 AM   #3399
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Article 50

Quote:
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
The bit the EU is in breach of is under part 2 where it says, "...the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union."

The EU have argued that the sentence should be interpreted as, "setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, and only then take account of the framework for its future relationship."

I think the EU interpretation is not consistent with either the text or the spirit of the article, but like I said, I don't expect the EU to change its negotiating tactics, and I don't think there are enough grounds to mount a legal challenge against the EU which in any case would have to come before an EU court.

Last edited by ceptimus; 13th October 2017 at 05:15 AM.
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Old 13th October 2017, 05:36 AM   #3400
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Wrong way round. The bill is for things we agreed to pay for when we were members of the EU, e.g. funding for joint agencies etc many of which were based in the UK, Nigel Farage's pension etc. Not many places want to discuss future bookings with people reluctant to pay for agreements already entered into.
Dude, take it up with Garrison.
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