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Old 15th August 2017, 12:49 PM   #1
barehl
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Will robots steal our jobs?

UK Economic Outlook March, 2017

Our analysis suggests that up to 30% of UK jobs could potentially be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s, lower than the US (38%) or Germany (35%), but higher than Japan (21%).

In this article we present the findings from our own analysis of this topic, which builds on the research of both Frey and Osborne (hereafter ‘FO’) and Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn (hereafter ‘AGZ’).


PwC - 38% loss in US
FO - 47% loss in US
AGZ - 9% loss in US

This seems to be the justification:

However, over the past few years, fears of technology-driven job losses have re-emerged with advances in ‘smart automation’ – the combination of AI, robotics and other digital technologies that is already producing innovations like driverless cars and trucks, intelligent virtual assistants like Siri, Alexa and Cortana, and Japanese healthcare robots. While traditional machines, including fixed location industrial robots, replaced our muscles (and those of other animals like horses and oxen), these new smart machines have the potential to replace our minds and to move around freely in the world driven by a combination of advanced sensors, GPS tracking systems and deep learning, if not now then probably within the next decade or two.


I know what my opinion is of this article. I'm curious what the consensus and reasoning is on this forum.
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Old 15th August 2017, 12:52 PM   #2
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Excuse me 'barehl', but maybe you have have not heard the news that robots have been stealing jobs from humans for the last few decades.

I was sure that fact was common knowledge by now.
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Old 15th August 2017, 01:02 PM   #3
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I'll be back

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Old 15th August 2017, 01:04 PM   #4
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They aren't stealing, the jobs are being legally given to them.
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Old 15th August 2017, 01:08 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
Excuse me 'barehl', but maybe you have have not heard the news that robots have been stealing jobs from humans for the last few decades.

I was sure that fact was common knowledge by now.
The title of the paper is Will robots steal our jobs? The potential impact of automation on the UK and other major economies.

Maybe you haven't heard, but I didn't write the paper. I was sure that fact was obvious.
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Old 15th August 2017, 01:15 PM   #6
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Most of the mentions of this paper have been more provocative. For example:

Watch out America, robots are coming for your jobs: Report finds 38% of US jobs will be automated by 2030
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Old 15th August 2017, 01:25 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
The title of the paper is Will robots steal our jobs? The potential impact of automation on the UK and other major economies.

Maybe you haven't heard, but I didn't write the paper. I was sure that fact was obvious.
The obvious fact was your question "Will robots steal our jobs?".

Which prompted the obvious fact that I produced.

As for you, ...

If you actually want people to read the article you cite and then to write comments about that article, then it would be most helpful if you clearly said so.
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Old 15th August 2017, 01:40 PM   #8
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Well you will have patience when you are unemployed do to the robots to watch this.
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I AGREE
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Old 15th August 2017, 02:25 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
UK Economic Outlook March, 2017

Our analysis suggests that up to 30% of UK jobs could potentially be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s, lower than the US (38%) or Germany (35%), but higher than Japan (21%).

In this article we present the findings from our own analysis of this topic, which builds on the research of both Frey and Osborne (hereafter ‘FO’) and Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn (hereafter ‘AGZ’).


PwC - 38% loss in US
FO - 47% loss in US
AGZ - 9% loss in US

This seems to be the justification:

However, over the past few years, fears of technology-driven job losses have re-emerged with advances in ‘smart automation’ – the combination of AI, robotics and other digital technologies that is already producing innovations like driverless cars and trucks, intelligent virtual assistants like Siri, Alexa and Cortana, and Japanese healthcare robots. While traditional machines, including fixed location industrial robots, replaced our muscles (and those of other animals like horses and oxen), these new smart machines have the potential to replace our minds and to move around freely in the world driven by a combination of advanced sensors, GPS tracking systems and deep learning, if not now then probably within the next decade or two.


I know what my opinion is of this article. I'm curious what the consensus and reasoning is on this forum.
Seems reasonable to me, but we'll adapt.

It's not like we'll all be begging in the streets due to robots taking our jobs. There will be new jobs, or maybe, as unlikely as it seems, we might actually work less.

That last bit is being a bit optimistic, but a guy can dream, eh?
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Old 15th August 2017, 02:51 PM   #10
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Or sitting at home on the couch, on salary, waiting for the robot to break.
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Old 15th August 2017, 03:44 PM   #11
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Some jobs will go, but they will be replaced by other jobs. Then living standards will improve, so create even more jobs. Hence there will not be large scale unemployment due to technology change.
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Old 15th August 2017, 03:59 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Some jobs will go, but they will be replaced by other jobs. Then living standards will improve, so create even more jobs. Hence there will not be large scale unemployment due to technology change.
.... and the rising tide will lift all boats and all the wealth will trickle down to the masses.

Even if that doesn't happen, mobile phones will become cheaper so we will all be RICH RICH RICH.
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Old 15th August 2017, 04:04 PM   #13
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https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/

There's a couple different ways to describe my work; none of them are under threat from robots.

Ironically, my work mainly consists of designing and building automation to do the kinds of jobs I used to do myself.

Last edited by theprestige; 15th August 2017 at 04:06 PM.
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Old 15th August 2017, 04:10 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
.... and the rising tide will lift all boats and all the wealth will trickle down to the masses.

Even if that doesn't happen, mobile phones will become cheaper so we will all be RICH RICH RICH.

This will happen. This is the kind of thing that's been happening all last century in the freer economies.

Is this really your position: Oh no! People now carry supercomputers with screens with higher resolution than old film cameras right in their pockets!

Economists look at the kinds of things available to buy, and what the average person does buy, and things continue to get better and better and better...in the freer economies. China is opening up...and their people are benefiting from it -- there is more to freedom than just freedom of speech.




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Old 15th August 2017, 04:21 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
This will happen. This is the kind of thing that's been happening all last century in the freer economies.
Sure, this kind of thing happened in the horse and buggy era so it will always happen.

Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
Is this really your position: Oh no! People now carry supercomputers with screens with higher resolution than old film cameras right in their pockets!
I seriously worry about the ability of some posters to read.
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Old 15th August 2017, 10:21 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
.... and the rising tide will lift all boats and all the wealth will trickle down to the masses.

Even if that doesn't happen, mobile phones will become cheaper so we will all be RICH RICH RICH.
I never said anything about the trickle down effect. Yes, there will be winners and losers. There always are. My point being that it will make society as a whole wealthier.
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Old 16th August 2017, 12:57 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I never said anything about the trickle down effect. Yes, there will be winners and losers. There always are. My point being that it will make society as a whole wealthier.
Your argument belongs to the "trickle down" category. It is out of date. It ignores that individuals are being priced out of the housing market or that they have to be saddled with crippling student debt all their lives if they want anything better than low paid casual work in bottom level jobs that are the prime targets of automation. All indications are that this trend is increasing with no end in sight.

The argument that technological devices are way more affordable and this somehow cancels out the above realities doesn't wash. Unless we prepare for a world where labour is not needed we are going to see extreme poverty - even in the first world - on a scale never seen before.
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Old 16th August 2017, 01:46 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Your argument belongs to the "trickle down" category. It is out of date. It ignores that individuals are being priced out of the housing market or that they have to be saddled with crippling student debt all their lives if they want anything better than low paid casual work in bottom level jobs that are the prime targets of automation. All indications are that this trend is increasing with no end in sight.

The argument that technological devices are way more affordable and this somehow cancels out the above realities doesn't wash. Unless we prepare for a world where labour is not needed we are going to see extreme poverty - even in the first world - on a scale never seen before.
Actually you could have a point. Though you have put in a lot of rubbish as well. Student loans and house prices are not relevant.

What we could see are unskilled and semi skilled jobs disappearing. And highly skilled jobs being created. The total income from salary and wages goes down slightly. What does go up a lot is income from investments in the share market. Overall the economy grows. The big problems though are the reduction in size of the middle class and the unskilled workforce unable to get jobs that pay a living wage. This weakens democracy.

The consequences of that may include the rise of domestic service and crime fueled by poverty. Could be even worse. If factories come back to the developed world because they no longer need a large, unskilled, poorly paid workforce then it could lead to the collapse of governments / countries, which depended on such factories for their income.

One partial solution is to give everyone a pension. Something like the unemployment benefit. No need to look for a job. Nor would it matter if you do have a job, you still get this pension. Taxes may have to be high to pay for it. This idea is not new. Romans (when they had an empire) got a monthly food ration.
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Old 16th August 2017, 01:57 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Student loans and house prices are not relevant.

What we could see are unskilled and semi skilled jobs disappearing.
OK I will concede that housing prices are not directly relevant to automation (there are other factors involved). However, you have just demonstrated that higher education at any price is most definitely relevant.
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Old 16th August 2017, 05:40 AM   #20
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Old 16th August 2017, 05:57 AM   #21
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On of the arguments I've heard against this is that for each job taken a new job, programming or maintaining the automated things, will open up.

The problem with this is that is slowly will eleminate from the job market those that simply cannot handle such jobs.
Things like farm hand, truck/bus driver, factory worker etc. But most people in those jobs will not fare well in a new job market, nor will those that would have had such jobs in the past.

I personally have no problem with a system in which we just distribute part of our newfound wealth so that even those that cannot work these jobs will get enough money to get by and their children educated at the cost of the state. But if we won't do this, I suspect we will create a pretty resentful underclass living in poverty with no real hope of getting out.
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Old 16th August 2017, 06:26 AM   #22
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As Lukraak is saying, new "tech" jobs will open up regarding the design and maintenance of robotic systems, but much of the existing workforce, especially the "blue-collar" sector, will not be likely to enter this field.
Both 60 Minutes, and CBS Sunday Morning have devoted shows to this within recent weeks.

They mentioned that we are working on systems that allow computers to do coding and essentially allow computers to design computers.

I would assume my job is reasonably safe... "Robocop" is far in the future. But I can see robotic fixed-point security systems becoming prevalent. Robots don't fall asleep on the job or play computer games with the boss's computer. (At least, they haven't been caught yet...)
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Old 16th August 2017, 06:37 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Bikewer View Post
I would assume my job is reasonably safe... "Robocop" is far in the future.
It is in the present already. Speed and traffic light cameras seem to have taken over a lot of traffic enforcement. All you need is a robot breath/drug detector and you can do away with traffic police.
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Old 16th August 2017, 06:50 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It is in the present already. Speed and traffic light cameras seem to have taken over a lot of traffic enforcement. All you need is a robot breath/drug detector and you can do away with traffic police.
"ED 209" will be 'protecting and serving' sooner or later.

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Old 16th August 2017, 09:21 AM   #25
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Personally, instead of offering some minimal standard of living (or, in addition too, if it's possible) I'd rather see education paid for by the government beyond just high school. Not sure the best way to work it, but if jobs seem to be consistently moving to those requiring more skill and training then our best investment is to make sure our people have higher levels of skill and training.

There are practical issues, of course. You wouldn't want to send someone to a field they have little hope of qualifying for, nor would you want to pay for everyone to take law courses when the shortages are in other fields. Conversely, you don't want to force people into critical fields, and have a lot of people giving free training in jobs they don't want or care about.

Maybe provide a choice from critical fields (say, the 25% or 50% of fields that have the highest shortages), combined with aptitude testing to make sure it's a field one is capable of doing. And I'm not talking about necessarily full college degrees, but tech schools as well. Or maybe provide a "voucher" system, like some places have for lower education, that can offset some college/tech school prices. The details would have to be worked out and considered carefully, but seems like that's a more positive direction to move in, for me at least.

Of course, I'm a bit of a fetishist about education. I think a lot of problems can be traced back to a lack of good education, so making that better has an enormous amount of add-on effects.
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Old 17th August 2017, 09:57 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by bobdroege7 View Post
Or sitting at home on the couch, on salary, waiting for the robot to break.
I'm in service and support for just this, don't knock it
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Old 18th August 2017, 07:40 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Senex View Post
Well you will have patience when you are unemployed do to the robots to watch this.
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Old 18th August 2017, 07:41 AM   #28
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On the bright side I did not suggest doo!!!!!!!
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Old 18th August 2017, 07:55 AM   #29
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capitalism doesn't work without consumers. So fear not when the robots have your jobs, they'll have to bring in some sort of universal basic income just so you can consume and consume so that companies can accumulate wealth.

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Old 18th August 2017, 08:44 AM   #30
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Machines have been taking our jobs for thousands of years and we haven’t run out of jobs yet.
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Old 18th August 2017, 08:57 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by p0lka View Post
capitalism doesn't work without consumers. So fear not when the robots have your jobs, they'll have to bring in some sort of universal basic income just so you can consume and consume so that companies can accumulate wealth.
I'm not seeing the problem.

And it's not just capitalism that doesn't work without consumers. Socialism, totalitarianism, and libertarianism don't work without consumers either. Even anarchism doesn't work without consumers.

Which is to say, human desire is boundless. Under whatever socio-economic system, humans will work to satisfy their own desires and enter into commerce with each other to satisfy their desires. Wherever consumerism is abolished, black markets emerge to service human desire. As long as there are humans, there will be mechanisms for profitable trade on human desire.

Robots may take our jobs, but they won't take our essential humanity. Someday, we will see what humanity *really* wants, when we no longer have to work for a living. My guess is... war.
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Old 18th August 2017, 08:58 AM   #32
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The day of the blue collar working man is coming to an end.
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Old 18th August 2017, 08:59 AM   #33
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Within the next one or two generations, there will not be a single task that a robot can't do.
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Old 18th August 2017, 09:02 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Mikemcc View Post
I'm in service and support for just this, don't knock it
Who is knocking it?

I do service automated equipment, it might not be a stretch to call them robots.
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Old 18th August 2017, 09:06 AM   #35
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Some jobs such as truck driving, could become more family friendly, as the driver could do the driving remotely, for the areas that a robot can't handle (eg. at the depot).

Saying that, on BBC recently was a documentary on Silicon Valley. There were people there that feared the backlash for what is to come. They said that just because technology has been a benefit for nearly all in the past, does not mean it will mean that this time. Its a different technology replacing different jobs.
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Old 18th August 2017, 09:08 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by p0lka View Post
capitalism doesn't work without consumers. So fear not when the robots have your jobs, they'll have to bring in some sort of universal basic income just so you can consume and consume so that companies can accumulate wealth.
Like they won't built robot consumers.
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Old 18th August 2017, 10:56 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Machines have been taking our jobs for thousands of years and we haven’t run out of jobs yet.
Which is why everyone on the planet is gainfully employed ...

To me the question is how humans will respond. Performing useful work is a satisfying thing and we may need new ideas about what's useful. Even if people don't need to be employed, they need to be occupied, IMO. Providing companionship for a lonely person, for example.

Though by that reasoning dogs are also stealing "our" jobs.

ETA: I don't want a robot dog, but if it were furry and trained to act like it adores me, why would it matter?

Last edited by Minoosh; 18th August 2017 at 10:59 AM.
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Old 18th August 2017, 11:04 AM   #38
Minoosh
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Originally Posted by bobdroege7 View Post
Who is knocking it?

I do service automated equipment, it might not be a stretch to call them robots.
They are absolutely robots.
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Old 18th August 2017, 11:11 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Cainkane1 View Post
The day of the blue collar working man is coming to an end.
I will believe that when we finally get a 'paperless' office.
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Old 18th August 2017, 11:33 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
ETA: I don't want a robot dog, but if it were furry and trained to act like it adores me, why would it matter?
If it were programmed to poop on the carpet sometimes, then look pitiful and in need of forgiveness ...

nah
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