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Old 18th August 2017, 11:38 AM   #41
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Cainkane1 View Post
The day of the blue collar working man is coming to an end.
Originally Posted by Cainkane1 View Post
Within the next one or two generations, there will not be a single task that a robot can't do.
Somehow I doubt it.
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Old 18th August 2017, 11:43 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
I will believe that when we finally get a 'paperless' office.
It's crept up on us. By the time I realized I was in a paperless office, I'd been there for several years already. Between email, ticketing systems, and wikis/shared storage, I can't remember the last time I had to actually print out anything work-related.

Hell, actually using paper would be counter-productive. It's been that way in my line of work for about ten years now.
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Old 18th August 2017, 12:27 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's crept up on us. By the time I realized I was in a paperless office, I'd been there for several years already. Between email, ticketing systems, and wikis/shared storage, I can't remember the last time I had to actually print out anything work-related.

Hell, actually using paper would be counter-productive. It's been that way in my line of work for about ten years now.
That is definitely not me!

Just this week I printed at least 1000 pages of various reports and such.
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Old 18th August 2017, 12:28 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Cainkane1 View Post
The day of the blue collar working man is coming to an end.
That is clearly part of the problem (and the stupid reactions to it) - essentially "My daddy and his daddy before him had that job and it should be there for me!!!!!!" is incompetent and irrational thought. But it is what way too many Trumpfers believe and desperately want to believe will happen. Instead that want is just a pile of feces. Thus, they are ********** - and if they have raised children believing the same ****, they may be ********** too!!!!!
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Old 18th August 2017, 12:29 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
That is definitely not me!

Just this week I printed at least 1000 pages of various reports and such.
You must work in banking, finance, or government.
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Old 18th August 2017, 01:10 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Some jobs will go, but they will be replaced by other jobs.
This is simply not true, and hasn't been true for awhile. Newer forms of automation are removing jobs faster than new jobs are being created from technological innovation. It is in fact different this time.

Hell, you might think that becoming a software developer would be the safe course in this new age of automation. Someone has got to write all that automation software after all. You know what my first job out of college was? Writing software that automated the creation of software for television automation systems. Instead of a few dozen software developers developing systems for many different clients, a few business analysts and a couple of software developers could simply input some parameters in that system, and it would output a mostly filled template project that just might need a tweak here and there for a particular client. And it isn't like that was state of the art software development automation.

edit: The point is that this isn't about blue-collar jobs going away. Robots are actually kind of expensive and finicky. This round of automation is about software taking over white-collar work. It isn't just coming, it is already here. What is my job right now as a software developer? Develop insurance software. Why? To reduce the need insurance companies have for underwriters, adjusters, and actuaries. When a company adopts my company's software, they can start slashing their HR costs because while humans are still needed, each individual underwriter, adjuster, and actuary can do the work of what took several of each before by leveraging the software.

Last edited by Fizil; 18th August 2017 at 01:19 PM.
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Old 19th August 2017, 12:18 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Cainkane1 View Post
The day of the blue collar working man is coming to an end.
Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
I will believe that when we finally get a 'paperless' office.
I am sure there will be many jobs that could be done will minimum of intelligence. Examples
- Low grade sales staff
- Waiters
- Cleaners
- servants
Though I strongly suspect many of these people will be long term unemployed.
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Old 19th August 2017, 02:13 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Fizil View Post
This is simply not true, and hasn't been true for awhile. Newer forms of automation are removing jobs faster than new jobs are being created from technological innovation. It is in fact different this time.

Hell, you might think that becoming a software developer would be the safe course in this new age of automation. Someone has got to write all that automation software after all. You know what my first job out of college was? Writing software that automated the creation of software for television automation systems. Instead of a few dozen software developers developing systems for many different clients, a few business analysts and a couple of software developers could simply input some parameters in that system, and it would output a mostly filled template project that just might need a tweak here and there for a particular client. And it isn't like that was state of the art software development automation.

edit: The point is that this isn't about blue-collar jobs going away. Robots are actually kind of expensive and finicky. This round of automation is about software taking over white-collar work. It isn't just coming, it is already here. What is my job right now as a software developer? Develop insurance software. Why? To reduce the need insurance companies have for underwriters, adjusters, and actuaries. When a company adopts my company's software, they can start slashing their HR costs because while humans are still needed, each individual underwriter, adjuster, and actuary can do the work of what took several of each before by leveraging the software.
Reading this, it occurred to me that replacing a above average paid job with a robot could create more than one job. How? It would reduce prices, so people would have more income to spend. They would spend it creating several new jobs. It makes no difference if you believe that companies would increase profit insead. Whoever gets that money will create jobs when they spend it. Of course the main danger is if they keep the extra money under the bed. Then no jobs are created.
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Old 19th August 2017, 05:26 AM   #49
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I defy any robot to come in and work on the plumbing in my (1929 vintage) house.
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Old 19th August 2017, 05:49 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Reading this, it occurred to me that replacing a above average paid job with a robot could create more than one job. How? It would reduce prices, so people would have more income to spend. They would spend it creating several new jobs.
How many of those jobs would go to people and how many to robots?

It seems to me that there will come a point where the increased purchasing power of the employed will be counterbalanced by the increasing unemployment and hence downward pressure on wages.

Even if the job market doesn't decline, a massive increase in productivity would need a massive increase in consumption which would increase the rate at which we consume this planet.
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Old 19th August 2017, 08:49 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Fizil View Post
This is simply not true, and hasn't been true for awhile.
But the unemployment rate is pretty low right now. Those people displaced by automation, and there are indeed millions of them, must have figured out something to do instead. This will continue for quite a while.

I think there was much truth in your post, though. Automation is indeed displacing lots of people, including lots of people who thought they were safe. This will cause a lot of problems as we try and figure out how to actually let human beings, outside of Jeff Bezos and some of the uber-rich, actually benefit from the benefit of displacing people from jobs.

Ultimately, I am convinced that the answer lies in a simple solution. Work less, and use the stuff that the robots have built. I'm just not sure how to achieve that.
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Old 19th August 2017, 03:32 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
How many of those jobs would go to people and how many to robots?

It seems to me that there will come a point where the increased purchasing power of the employed will be counterbalanced by the increasing unemployment and hence downward pressure on wages.

Even if the job market doesn't decline, a massive increase in productivity would need a massive increase in consumption which would increase the rate at which we consume this planet.
There will also be an increasing number of people who own enough capital so that they do not have to work. But yes, if the economy is not managed well enough there is a risk of a large long term unemployment being created.
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Old 19th August 2017, 05:20 PM   #53
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I've mentioned this before, and probably will mention it again.

I love the way that some people think that truck drivers only sit up the front and point the truck.

I'm guessing that profession will be around long after insurance salesmen have been automated.

Automated container trucks that move containers from one automated container facility to another automated container facility? Maybe.

Everything else that gets moved around by trucks, probably not for a very long time.
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Old 19th August 2017, 07:23 PM   #54
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#Especially not coding.
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Old 19th August 2017, 07:55 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
They aren't stealing, the jobs are being legally given to them.

I don't think robots possess the agency to "steal" anything.

... yet.
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Old 19th August 2017, 08:11 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
<snip?

One partial solution is to give everyone a pension. Something like the unemployment benefit. No need to look for a job. Nor would it matter if you do have a job, you still get this pension. Taxes may have to be high to pay for it. This idea is not new. Romans (when they had an empire) got a monthly food ration.
Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
<snip>

Ultimately, I am convinced that the answer lies in a simple solution. Work less, and use the stuff that the robots have built. I'm just not sure how to achieve that.

Question.

Are we, as individual nations or as a world economy, ready for a post-scarcity society?

Will we be, when the need becomes inevitable and unavoidable?

One aspect that worries me is the persistence of the tradition known by such names (at least in the U.S.) as the "Protestant work ethic", which seems to cause way too many otherwise reasonable (?) people to have a visceral resentment for anyone else perceived to be getting something without earning it somehow.

Even the ones who are themselves doing the same. They always manage to rationalize ways it is somehow 'different' for them when they do it.

Welfare, health care, worker's comp, scholarships, ... and on and on.

We're going to have to somehow rid our society of its deep seated dislike for anything that resembles a "handout", especially to somebody else, before we'll get very far on wealth distribution in a post-scarcity society, otherwise there will just end up being more and more wealth concentration at the top.
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Old 19th August 2017, 08:16 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Question.

Are we, as individual nations or as a world economy, ready for a post-scarcity society?

Will we be, when the need becomes inevitable and unavoidable?

One aspect that worries me is the persistence of the tradition known by such names (at least in the U.S.) as the "Protestant work ethic", which seems to cause way too many otherwise reasonable (?) people to have a visceral resentment for anyone else perceived to be getting something without earning it somehow.

Even the ones who are themselves doing the same. They always manage to rationalize ways it is somehow 'different' for them when they do it.

Welfare, health care, worker's comp, scholarships, ... and on and on.

We're going to have to somehow rid our society of its deep seated dislike for anything that resembles a "handout", especially to somebody else, before we'll get very far on wealth distribution in a post-scarcity society, otherwise there will just end up being more and more wealth concentration at the top.
Bingo.

There's the problem.

I think it will work itself out somehow, although I'm not sure how.
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Old 19th August 2017, 08:16 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I am sure there will be many jobs that could be done will minimum of intelligence. Examples
Editers
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Old 19th August 2017, 09:19 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Editers
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Old 19th August 2017, 09:25 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Editors

I think that was probably intentional.

If it wasn't, it should have been.
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Old 19th August 2017, 09:41 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Question.

Are we, as individual nations or as a world economy, ready for a post-scarcity society?
Terrible question. Humans will adapt.
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Old 19th August 2017, 09:54 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
Just this week I printed at least 1000 pages of various reports and such.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You must work in banking, finance, or government.
My guess is Crossbow works in automation.
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Old 19th August 2017, 11:41 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Terrible question. Humans will adapt.

Maybe.

There is no certainty that they will adapt well, or cope with a condition that there isn't any past guideline for from human experience.

Nature doesn't handle abundant resources all that well. Usually any species which encounters such circumstances reproduces itself into catastrophe. Some suggest (I am not among them) that this is a course we are already well embarked upon.

To "adapt" only suggests survival, it doesn't mean much as far as the conditions of that survival are concerned.

I'm not questioning whether or not we can survive in a post-scarcity economy, I'm questioning how we might do it, and what the possible ramifications and pitfalls might be.

We have had relatively abundant resources at our disposal for quite some time, and haven't demonstrated any real talent at taking advantage of that. Mostly we have done little more than increase resource disparity. Some places more than others, but the general condition is clear.

Are we simply going to see more of the same, with haves that have more and more, and have-nots looking at a constantly growing gap?
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Old 20th August 2017, 02:42 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Terrible question. Humans will adapt.
Humans as a whole will. I'm not sure that will involve taking care of the vulnerable who are left in the wake. We currently have enough resources to feed everybody on the planet, yet people are still starving. We currently have enough resources to give free healthcare to everybody on the planet, yet people are still dying of easily preventable conditions. The US is the richest country on the planet by quite a long way, yet a fifth of USAian children live below the poverty line.

I'm not sure I see that changing just because the number of vulnerable people has gone up.
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Old 20th August 2017, 03:06 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Terrible question. Humans will adapt.
"Adapt" also includes the survival of 1% of the population in a post-asteroid-impact dystopia.
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Old 20th August 2017, 02:18 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
If you actually want people to read the article you cite and then to write comments about that article, then it would be most helpful if you clearly said so.
Well, it may be news to you but that link was the first line of my post. I thought that was obvious also.
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Old 20th August 2017, 02:29 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Machines have been taking our jobs for thousands of years and we haven’t run out of jobs yet.
This same point was in the article, in fact on the first page:

The standard economic view for most of the last two centuries has therefore been that the Luddites were wrong about the long-term benefits of the new technologies, even if they were right about the short-term impact on their personal livelihoods. Anyone putting such arguments against new technologies has generally been dismissed as believing in the ‘Luddite fallacy’.


And then the main question is on the next page:

What exactly will humans have to offer employers if smart machines can perform all or most of their essential tasks better in the future2? In short, has the Luddite fallacy finally come true?

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Old 20th August 2017, 02:52 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
What exactly will humans have to offer employers if smart machines can perform all or most of their essential tasks better in the future2? In short, has the Luddite fallacy finally come true?
Somebody needs to purchase the output of these robotic industries? Which means that those consumers will need an income of some kind and must, therefore, have some kind of work? And that that work must in itself have some value to the consumers of its output?
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Old 20th August 2017, 02:59 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Somebody needs to purchase the output of these robotic industries? Which means that those consumers will need an income of some kind and must, therefore, have some kind of work? And that that work must in itself have some value to the consumers of its output?
And yet, nowhere in that reply do you mention humans.
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Old 20th August 2017, 10:34 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Fizil View Post
This is simply not true, and hasn't been true for awhile. Newer forms of automation are removing jobs faster than new jobs are being created from technological innovation. It is in fact different this time.

Hell, you might think that becoming a software developer would be the safe course in this new age of automation. Someone has got to write all that automation software after all. You know what my first job out of college was? Writing software that automated the creation of software for television automation systems. Instead of a few dozen software developers developing systems for many different clients, a few business analysts and a couple of software developers could simply input some parameters in that system, and it would output a mostly filled template project that just might need a tweak here and there for a particular client. And it isn't like that was state of the art software development automation.

edit: The point is that this isn't about blue-collar jobs going away. Robots are actually kind of expensive and finicky. This round of automation is about software taking over white-collar work. It isn't just coming, it is already here. What is my job right now as a software developer? Develop insurance software. Why? To reduce the need insurance companies have for underwriters, adjusters, and actuaries. When a company adopts my company's software, they can start slashing their HR costs because while humans are still needed, each individual underwriter, adjuster, and actuary can do the work of what took several of each before by leveraging the software.
There definitely will be many blue and white collar jobs that will be replaced, but the pattern for hundreds of years of increased efficiency has resulted in less unemployment rates, not more (excluding the great depression, which was more of poor banking regulation problem). This latest potential employment shift has the potential to be very devastating on our economy and many people's lives, but unlike the great depression, we have time to plan for it.

Also, the most important thing about the automation debate that I find a large number of people do not take into account is the inherent limitations of AI/robotics, and how essential collaboration with human workers will be among all fields.

If we really want to look at the last major form of employment shift on the scale we are looking at now, the first industrial revolution is very applicable. There were massive widespread fears at the time that a very large portion of the country would become unemployed as we moved away from an agrarian society. They couldn't even imagine all of the different jobs that would be created from that massive shift.

Our economy is enormously based on social interactions, and that will not change anytime soon. There will be some jobs where fewer people are required, but there will always be a human required.

If you want to look at one of the first massive superhuman Artificial Intelligence devices that was adopted worldwide that revolutionized the labor industry, look at the calculator. No human could ever match the speed and power of what is now a handheld calculator, but it has dramatically increased the efficiency and employment options because of it across the world.

I have been very interested in this topic for a number of years, and very worried about the prospect of what would happen to societies when hundreds of millions of people are suddenly put out of work. Especially when you combine this with the quickly untenable demands of future food requirements, and the toxification of sea food. It is terrifying to imagine a nightmare situation where hundreds of millions of destitute people overwhelm the social safety nets. HOWEVER, increased efficiency and AI collaborative innovation is probably the best chance we have at meeting our most major current and upcoming human crises.
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Old 20th August 2017, 11:18 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Somebody needs to purchase the output of these robotic industries? Which means that those consumers will need an income of some kind and must, therefore, have some kind of work? And that that work must in itself have some value to the consumers of its output?
When we reach a point where manufacturing is almost entirely automated, the economy will have to change. Most likely some sort of universal wage for starters.

Also, you also would reach a point where engineered to fail early products (planned obsolescence) could become less common. Your cars, shoes computers, etc. could be made to last much longer, and you would pay less for them.

It also means that unnecessary shipping expenses would create economic pressure towards a massive increase in smaller localized manufacturing centers that could produce a large variety of products.

Because of the smaller remote and likely largely additive manufacturing centers, recycling would become more common and profitable as common materials are adopted (and more easily utilized in additive vs. subtractive manufacturing), there would be more incentives to have open source products to increase efficiency, and less IP.

You would still have people working, especially in service industry positions, and AI integrated generative design development. However, you could do a whole lot more with a lot less waste, pollution, and social strife.
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Old 20th August 2017, 11:43 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
And yet, nowhere in that reply do you mention humans.
True. I was assuming that the consumers would be human. 'Robotic consumers' is an interesting thought
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Old 27th August 2017, 02:34 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
"trickle down" category. It is out of date. It ignores that individuals are being priced out ... All indications are that this trend is increasing with no end in sight.

...

Unless we prepare for a world where labour is not needed we are going to see extreme poverty - even in the first world - on a scale never seen before.
Things could get worse than they are now, but there is a limit how much relative perceived poverty the majority of population will tolerate. Then they vote for laws that nationalize robots once owned by the few. Unless the robot-owners make a coup d'etat with their robot armies, and that is the end of democracy. As long as democracy exists, there is a limit how bad the situation can get.
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Old 27th August 2017, 03:16 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by JJM 777 View Post
Things could get worse than they are now, but there is a limit how much relative perceived poverty the majority of population will tolerate. Then they vote for laws that nationalize robots once owned by the few. Unless the robot-owners make a coup d'etat with their robot armies, and that is the end of democracy. As long as democracy exists, there is a limit how bad the situation can get.
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Old 27th August 2017, 04:08 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
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I especially enjoyed the credits.

Also.
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Old 27th August 2017, 10:00 PM   #76
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You guys expect a frog in the kettle to be relevant for this discussion?
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Old 27th August 2017, 10:35 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by JJM 777 View Post
You guys expect a frog in the kettle to be relevant for this discussion?
I don't, no. Why? Do you think a frog in a kettle is somehow analogous to the topic of this thread?
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Old 28th August 2017, 07:38 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by JJM 777 View Post
You guys expect a frog in the kettle to be relevant for this discussion?
It sure is. The "technology will always create new jobs" mantra is constantly repeated like an article of faith. By the time it has rendered the average person obsolete it will be too late.
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Old 28th August 2017, 11:43 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It sure is. The "technology will always create new jobs" mantra is constantly repeated like an article of faith. By the time it has rendered the average person obsolete it will be too late.
This has been the case for hundreds of years. New industry technological advancements have gone hand in hand with lower unemployment rates. While demand and efficiency has shifted jobs to other fields, that is an inherent function of the economic affect of supply and demand.

What factors do you specifically see now that would change that trend?
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Old 29th August 2017, 12:00 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
This has been the case for hundreds of years. New industry technological advancements have gone hand in hand with lower unemployment rates. While demand and efficiency has shifted jobs to other fields, that is an inherent function of the economic affect of supply and demand.

What factors do you specifically see now that would change that trend?
It's been referred to as "hollowing out the middle classes", though it certainly extends to relatively well-paid work in manufacturing. The fear is that more and more people, even those with high levels of education, will be relegated to poorly-paid service jobs.
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