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Old 30th September 2017, 06:51 PM   #161
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
When the steam donkey became available it eliminated jobs in a number of areas such as the number of men required to handle sails on schooners. ...
It's amazing that people have to go back 100s of years in order to prove that technology won't reduce jobs.
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Old 30th September 2017, 07:18 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It's amazing that people have to go back 100s of years in order to prove that technology won't reduce jobs.
It's amazing that you don't see the hundred year track record. Technology has advanced. Population has increased. But unemployment has not kept up.

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Old 30th September 2017, 07:51 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's amazing that you don't see the hundred year track record. Technology has advanced. Population has increased. But unemployment has not kept up.
No? Youth unemployment is at record levels and it would be a darn sight higher if the figures weren't disguised by young people acquiring record levels of student debt instead.
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Old 1st October 2017, 08:52 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
I'll let my former cleaning lady know that she hasn't lost her job. Because I was about to rehire her before the wife bought this.
That wasn't what I said. I don't care why you in particular bought a DeeBot or if you have now decided that you no longer need all the other types of cleaning that a DeeBot can't do. Many businesses have lots and lots of floor space that needs to be vacuumed. So even though a DeeBot can only do one thing that one thing should still be very useful if the DeeBot actually worked. The savings in labor cost would be another tremendous advantage. We both know why this hasn't happened; the DeeBot is not capable of doing the job.
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Old 1st October 2017, 08:54 AM   #165
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It's amazing that people have to go back 100s of years in order to prove that technology won't reduce jobs.
That would be amazing if that was what I said. It wasn't what I said though and I don't know why you are pretending otherwise. Why don't you see if you can quote me without the strawmen?
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Old 1st October 2017, 12:16 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
The above assumes that the basic living allowance is only provided to the unemployed. Most basic income proposals are of the "universal" nature to sidestep this issue entirely.

I agree that in connection you would no longer need a minimum wage. And wages may even go down a bit for very easy jobs. But menial jobs or disgusting jobs may see a wage increase. It could be interesting.
Where are you going to get the money? Let's say you make it $10,000 a year. I don't know how you can live on much less. For a population of 300 million, that's $3 trillion a year. And that's new spending (I presume you wouldn't be heartless enough to reduce social security checks either).
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Old 1st October 2017, 01:34 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Where are you going to get the money? Let's say you make it $10,000 a year. I don't know how you can live on much less. For a population of 300 million, that's $3 trillion a year. And that's new spending (I presume you wouldn't be heartless enough to reduce social security checks either).
There will be no need for unemployment benefits if there is a basic wage given to all as they can live on the basic wage. Then currently there are the subsidies given to the parents of children. And money to private schools. They can go. Nor would there be any need for people to administer those abolished benefits. So your figures are an overestimate.
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Old 1st October 2017, 02:02 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
What you have today is Advanced AI. It works quite well on structured, high volume, and repetitive tasks. It's efficient but profoundly stupid. It is not unusual for people to hope that advanced AI will somehow grow up to be General AI. However, there is still no experimental foundation and no theoretical basis for this.

General AI. If this actually exists then no one has yet been able to say how it would differ from cognitive theory. If it is the same as cognitive theory then that wouldn't help you because it would only give you a sentient agent with similar reasoning capabilities to a human.

Fractional Theory. This is a hypothetical overlap between cognitive and computational theory. It involves the idea that behavior can be hard limited based on computation. It's the model most often used in science fiction including Asimov's three laws and Robby from The Forbidden Planet. If you want a perfect servant or an intelligent weapon, this is what you would need.
You have missed that I was talking about what AI/expert systems (the nomenclature is an irrelevance) can do today, that is not theory that is reality.
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Old 1st October 2017, 03:06 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
There will be no need for unemployment benefits if there is a basic wage given to all as they can live on the basic wage. Then currently there are the subsidies given to the parents of children. And money to private schools. They can go. Nor would there be any need for people to administer those abolished benefits. So your figures are an overestimate.
Indeed - the whole point about Universal Basic Income is that it replaces all other forms of welfare with a guaranteed and unconditional minimum income.
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Old 1st October 2017, 03:26 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Indeed - the whole point about Universal Basic Income is that it replaces all other forms of welfare with a guaranteed and unconditional minimum income.
This assumes that the productivity being taxed is sufficient to support all these erstwhile welfare recipients, and that the tax is not so onerous as to discourage the needed productivity.

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Old 1st October 2017, 03:40 PM   #171
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Better minds than mine have done the maths, and UBI is being trialed in several locations as we speak.
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Old 1st October 2017, 03:50 PM   #172
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Well, it ain't universal if it ain't universal...
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Old 1st October 2017, 03:59 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Well, it ain't universal if it ain't universal...
It's called "universal" because it applies to everyone - it isn't means tested and it isn't conditional.

It doesn't mean that it applies to everyone in the universe. I mean that'd be nice, and it'll be necessary when robots take all our jobs, but capitalists aren't ready for that yet because of some misguided impression that you have to actually work in order to deserve to live.
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Old 1st October 2017, 04:35 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
This assumes that the productivity being taxed is sufficient to support all these erstwhile welfare recipients, and that the tax is not so onerous as to discourage the needed productivity.

Yes. It does.
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Old 1st October 2017, 10:21 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
That would be amazing if that was what I said. It wasn't what I said though and I don't know why you are pretending otherwise. Why don't you see if you can quote me without the strawmen?
I don't know what you are complaining about. You are the one who brought up "steam donkeys" and "sails on schooners".

"Steam engines" seems to be the universal response to claims that technology threatens jobs.
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Old 1st October 2017, 11:23 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
technology threatens jobs
100 years here and there, technology has come and gone. Some joblessness is ever present. Is it even connected to technology so much? Joblessness is merely a way to cut a thinner slice of the cake to some people, so the rest can have wider slices.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 01:12 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by JJM 777 View Post
100 years here and there, technology has come and gone.
I have news for you. Technology is still here.

And it has the potential to replace far more jobs than steam engines ever did - without creating new jobs in the process.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 10:30 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
That wasn't what I said. I don't care why you in particular bought a DeeBot or if you have now decided that you no longer need all the other types of cleaning that a DeeBot can't do. Many businesses have lots and lots of floor space that needs to be vacuumed. So even though a DeeBot can only do one thing that one thing should still be very useful if the DeeBot actually worked. The savings in labor cost would be another tremendous advantage. We both know why this hasn't happened; the DeeBot is not capable of doing the job.
My point was that a robot can take jobs away. Not that it can take the job you were talking about away. Cleaning a hotel and cleaning my house are two completely different jobs. That is like comparing a Keurig to a barista. My office has a Keurrig, but no baristas lost their jobs due to it. (Although it can be confusing, Mr. Coffee is not actually a person.)
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Old 2nd October 2017, 10:44 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Where are you going to get the money? Let's say you make it $10,000 a year. I don't know how you can live on much less. For a population of 300 million, that's $3 trillion a year. And that's new spending (I presume you wouldn't be heartless enough to reduce social security checks either).
Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
There will be no need for unemployment benefits if there is a basic wage given to all as they can live on the basic wage. Then currently there are the subsidies given to the parents of children. And money to private schools. They can go. Nor would there be any need for people to administer those abolished benefits. So your figures are an overestimate.
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Indeed - the whole point about Universal Basic Income is that it replaces all other forms of welfare with a guaranteed and unconditional minimum income.
As a fiscal conservative it should be an easy sell: less overhead, less whining, more direct impact on the economy. Combined with a universal basic health care, it could reduce needless spending tremendously.

So, current welfare recipients and unemployment recipients just start getting a monthly check. Same for everyone, no need for means testing or location adjustments. If you live in NYC and can't get by on the same as someone living in Detroit, then move your ass to Detroit. It's about an 18 hour train ride and the tickets appear to be available for around $100. But you want to stay in NYC, because that is where all your friends and family are? Great, get a job.

For people like you and me, who pay more in taxes than the government would ever pay as a UBI, we will get the UBI, but our taxes go up by the same amount. so, about 40% of the people getting the UBI will just be paying it back in taxes. Sound inefficient? Compare it to the number of people working for the government right now trying to keep track of all our damn social welfare programs.

In the middle there will be people who get the UBI and pay a bit more in taxes. Currently they have to juggle the pros and cons of getting a job: what benefits do I loose by being a Walmart greeter. With UBI you would remove the perverse incentives not to work that are inherent in the current system. The added income may be taxed, but there would be no decrease in the UBI. So, using your number of $10,000, an unemployed person is far better off getting a job that pays another $20,000 per year even if they have to pay as much as $2,000 in income taxes. They don't lose their UBI just because they get a raise at work or work a few more hours during the holiday rush.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 11:11 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I have news for you. Technology is still here.

And it has the potential to replace far more jobs than steam engines ever did - without creating new jobs in the process.
Its absolutely reasonable to point out that that claim has been made before about other technology. Historically, those claims were only true in the short term. Sure, steam engines aren't an exact parallel but it and other examples indicate that predictions of the end of work are probably premature.


@Mr Keith,

In theory, UBI would be the fiscally conservative answer to a social safety net but:

Depending on the amount proposed if its universal and not means tested it will be more expensive than a means tested program.

Most libertarians and conservatives don't believe it would actually replace other programs but just be added on top.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 11:27 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
@Mr Keith,

In theory, UBI would be the fiscally conservative answer to a social safety net but:

Depending on the amount proposed if its universal and not means tested it will be more expensive than a means tested program.

Most libertarians and conservatives don't believe it would actually replace other programs but just be added on top.
If it is added on top of other programs, then yes it will fail completely.

Means testing makes it no longer a UBI. Means testing costs money. It is far less expensive in overhead to have a UBI. The added cost of giving a UBI to those who don't need it can be easily compensated for in the tax code. I get an extra $10,000 per year in UBI but pay an extra $10,000 per year in income tax. No extra cost to the government. This does require a more transparent tax code, though, so it is really just pie in the sky dreaming at this point.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 12:32 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
If it is added on top of other programs, then yes it will fail completely.

Means testing makes it no longer a UBI. Means testing costs money. It is far less expensive in overhead to have a UBI. The added cost of giving a UBI to those who don't need it can be easily compensated for in the tax code. I get an extra $10,000 per year in UBI but pay an extra $10,000 per year in income tax. No extra cost to the government. This does require a more transparent tax code, though, so it is really just pie in the sky dreaming at this point.
Wouldn't a negative income tax be easier still?
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Old 2nd October 2017, 12:50 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's amazing that you don't see the hundred year track record. Technology has advanced. Population has increased. But unemployment has not kept up.

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Consider also that children no longer work, and retirement is now a thing. We have changed our ideas of who is considered part of the "workforce".
My father finished eighth grade and went to work, my mother 10th. She tells me stories of her brother begging his parents to let him stay in school ( high-school, not college ), but he had to go to work instead.

Consider also that "work" has changed from " those things which a person must do to exist in the best circumstances they can achieve " to " what is done in exchange for money " .
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Old 2nd October 2017, 12:54 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Wouldn't a negative income tax be easier still?
It might be functionally the same thing. I'm not sure which would be easier to administer. One of the advantages of the UBI is that everyone gets it, so there is no stigma associated with getting it.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 01:59 PM   #185
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Keep in mind also - the UBI is designed literally to keep people off the poverty line. It's a minimum income that allows you to get by. If you want more than that, you are free to seek other forms of income - whether that be a regular job, or a gig job, or artistic pursuits or whatever. It frees you up so that you can make a pittance doing the things you love to do, if you want.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 08:28 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Its absolutely reasonable to point out that that claim has been made before about other technology. Historically, those claims were only true in the short term. Sure, steam engines aren't an exact parallel but it and other examples indicate that predictions of the end of work are probably premature.
The highlighted bit is strawman territory.

Nevertheless, an incorrect view of history will lead to incorrect conclusions. In the past, it was possible to push the masses from primary industry (agriculture and "cottage" industries) into secondary industries (mass production and factories). It was then possible to push people from secondary industries to tertiary industries (services and entertainment). The problem is that there is no 'quaternary' industry to push people into.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 10:09 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The highlighted bit is strawman territory.

Nevertheless, an incorrect view of history will lead to incorrect conclusions. In the past, it was possible to push the masses from primary industry (agriculture and "cottage" industries) into secondary industries (mass production and factories). It was then possible to push people from secondary industries to tertiary industries (services and entertainment). The problem is that there is no 'quaternary' industry to push people into.
And that's why we need UBI.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 03:12 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
it has the potential to replace far more jobs than steam engines ever did - without creating new jobs in the process.
So the technology is good enough to replace jobs, but not quite good enough to create jobs. Engineers need some more work on it, then.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 08:28 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The highlighted bit is strawman territory.

Nevertheless, an incorrect view of history will lead to incorrect conclusions. In the past, it was possible to push the masses from primary industry (agriculture and "cottage" industries) into secondary industries (mass production and factories). It was then possible to push people from secondary industries to tertiary industries (services and entertainment). The problem is that there is no 'quaternary' industry to push people into.
Ok, not the end of work but the vast reduction of work?

The point is, that in the past they were saying the very same things, they were not able to predict the occupations that would arise as a result of new technology and as a result of the excess production it created which resulted in mass consumption of luxuries and services that had previously only be afforded by the elites.

We likely don't see the occupations that may arise in future. We likely don't see how much excess production robots will create that will spur demand for new luxury.

Are progamers secondary, tertiary, or quartiary, occupations in relation to coopers?

I'm not saying the robots will not take all our jobs, I'm just saying, historically when those claims have been made, they've proven less than accurate, repeatedly.

In short, yes, this industrial revolution is different but so was the one before this and the one before that and so on. In each there were folks predicting dire consequences to to lack of demand for labor or utopias do to the excess production. Neither has come true yet so we should be skeptical of those claims now.

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Old 3rd October 2017, 09:22 AM   #190
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These claims are too much to take on faith. Prove it.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 09:24 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
These claims are too much to take on faith. Prove it.
So are predictions that robots will take our jobs. That's actually a much more extraordinary claim.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 09:44 AM   #192
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Here are some of my axioms: There will always be some jobs that only humans can do. Human desire is limitless.

Therefore, as robots take over more and more jobs, the result will be that more and more humans will enroll in the remaining professions, doing the jobs that robots cannot. And there will be no end to the demand for humans doing those jobs.

Beyond that, it's difficult for me to predict what the systems of economic productivity and distribution of wealth will look like, in a society where most of the automatable work has been automated.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 10:44 AM   #193
Roboramma
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Here are some of my axioms: There will always be some jobs that only humans can do. Human desire is limitless.
That sounds like magical thinking to me. You know that humans are made of the same stuff as robots, right? What sort of job can there be that only humans can do?
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Old 3rd October 2017, 11:40 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
But for an expert system/AI you only need to do this once and voilą you can turn out millions of MDs with a simple copy command.
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
You have missed that I was talking about what AI/expert systems (the nomenclature is an irrelevance) can do today, that is not theory that is reality.
This doesn't exist today and there is as yet no theoretical basis for it to ever exist. How is that reality?
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Old 3rd October 2017, 11:44 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
That sounds like magical thinking to me. You know that humans are made of the same stuff as robots, right? What sort of job can there be that only humans can do?
I don't understand your assertion. If you are talking about an unknown but possible future technology then how is that different from magic? As of today, you don't even have to talk about humans. There are abilities that adult rats have and three year old children have that no AI has. This isn't much of a competition yet.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 11:44 AM   #196
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Goddarn it, THEY TERK ER JERBS!!!
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Old 3rd October 2017, 11:55 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I don't know what you are complaining about. You are the one who brought up "steam donkeys" and "sails on schooners".

"Steam engines" seems to be the universal response to claims that technology threatens jobs.
No, that is nothing like I said. All tools reduce human labor, all of them. There is nothing special about a steam donkey. A bronze ax head is better for cutting wood than a stone ax head. The point of the article I referenced is that we are now in a new age where jobs requiring intelligence will be displaced by intelligent robots. My point was that the author doesn't support this claim because his examples were tools that were very little different from previous tools. It may very well be that at some point a machine will be intelligent enough but that is not reality today.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 01:44 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
That sounds like magical thinking to me. You know that humans are made of the same stuff as robots, right? What sort of job can there be that only humans can do?
When robots take all the jobs and everyone is on UBI, people will be drawn to more creative and intellectual pursuits.

After all, under UBI, nobody needs a job.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 02:02 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
That sounds like magical thinking to me. You know that humans are made of the same stuff as robots, right? What sort of job can there be that only humans can do?
Being one half of a Turing test.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 06:08 PM   #200
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
I don't understand your assertion. If you are talking about an unknown but possible future technology then how is that different from magic?
The laws of physics are what they are. Humans are just a very complex machine. There's no magic in that realization.

You might suggest that we will never learn enough to build machines with the same capabilities in other ways, but the fact that such machines can be built is proved by the fact that they exist.
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