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#281 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Iowa USA
Posts: 12,131
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"Sufficiently advanced malice is indistinguishable from incompetence. = godless Dave |
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#282 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 8,880
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#283 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 26,380
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What you do is formulate a means of testing whether their claim has any veracity to it, and carry out that test. If you then carry it out repeatedly for decades and find no evidence that supports the claim, you're perfectly justified in rejecting it until somebody produces evidence more convincing than a series of anecdotes.
Dave |
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Me: So what you're saying is that, if the load carrying ability of the lower structure is reduced to the point where it can no longer support the load above it, it will collapse without a jolt, right? Tony Szamboti: That is right |
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#284 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Where there's never a road broader than the back of your hand.
Posts: 1,996
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Your first sentence contradicts itself. If it is an outlandish claim it is perfectly possible to be mistaken about it: that's what makes it outlandish, and that's why your China example doesn't work.
As for your depiction of skeptics' assumptions, this is a false dichotomy often thrown out by woo-merchants and conspiracy theorists (see MicahJava in the JFK thread, for example). I, for one, do not automatically assume that someone who reports an incidence of whatever woo they are talking about, is insane or lying. They could simply be mistaken. Individuals can make mistakes, and groups can too. We're human: it happens to all of us, and is not uncommon. It might clarify your point if you could give an example of an outlandish claim about which it would be impossible to be mistaken. |
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Fortuna Faveat Fatuis |
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#285 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 8,880
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The other reason it's a poor analogy is that a trip to China is not a single experience. It's a whole long chain of events and activities each of which can be recalled and checked against other memories for consistency. Even though you might have a dream about being in China and later be confused about whether you'd really done that, it wouldn't take you long to get round to asking yourself questions like "when did I do that?", "how did I get there?", "why was I there?" etc.
It really doesn't compare with, say, being absolutely convinced you passed uncle Charlie on the bus this morning, even though he died 20 years ago. |
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#286 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 3,533
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#287 |
Seeking Honesty and Sanity
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Charleston, WV
Posts: 11,681
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08 JAN 2018 > Trump says that he is "Like, Really Smart" and that he is "a Very Stable Genius". 11 JAN 2018 > During an Oval Office meeting, Trump asks "“Why are we having all these people from ****hole countries come here?”" A man's best friend is his dogma. |
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#288 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 26,380
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__________________
Me: So what you're saying is that, if the load carrying ability of the lower structure is reduced to the point where it can no longer support the load above it, it will collapse without a jolt, right? Tony Szamboti: That is right |
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#289 |
Seeking Honesty and Sanity
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Charleston, WV
Posts: 11,681
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__________________
08 JAN 2018 > Trump says that he is "Like, Really Smart" and that he is "a Very Stable Genius". 11 JAN 2018 > During an Oval Office meeting, Trump asks "“Why are we having all these people from ****hole countries come here?”" A man's best friend is his dogma. |
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#290 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: N.Cal/S.Or
Posts: 6,208
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---------------------- Anything goes in the Goblin hut... anything. "Suggesting spurious explanations isn't relevant to my work." -- WTC Dust. "Both cannot be simultaneously true, and so one may conclude neither is true, and if neither is true, then Apollo is fraudulent." -- Patrick1000. |
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#291 |
Do you want to date my Avatar?
Moderator Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Florida
Posts: 24,981
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It would be easier to create a test if KotA checked in.
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I have the honor to be Your Obdt. St L. Leader |
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#292 |
Seeking Honesty and Sanity
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Charleston, WV
Posts: 11,681
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__________________
08 JAN 2018 > Trump says that he is "Like, Really Smart" and that he is "a Very Stable Genius". 11 JAN 2018 > During an Oval Office meeting, Trump asks "“Why are we having all these people from ****hole countries come here?”" A man's best friend is his dogma. |
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#293 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 6,536
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"A closed mouth gathers no feet" "Ignorance is a renewable resource" P.J.O'Rourke Prayer: "a sophisticated way of pleading with thunderstorms." T.Pratchett "It's all god's handiwork, there's little quality control applied", Fox26 reporter on Texas granite Forum Birdwatching Webpage |
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#294 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 26,380
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__________________
Me: So what you're saying is that, if the load carrying ability of the lower structure is reduced to the point where it can no longer support the load above it, it will collapse without a jolt, right? Tony Szamboti: That is right |
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#295 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Where there's never a road broader than the back of your hand.
Posts: 1,996
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Fortuna Faveat Fatuis |
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#296 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 80,867
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I wish I knew how to quit you |
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#297 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 3,533
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#298 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 3,533
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#299 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 26,380
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__________________
Me: So what you're saying is that, if the load carrying ability of the lower structure is reduced to the point where it can no longer support the load above it, it will collapse without a jolt, right? Tony Szamboti: That is right |
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#300 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 3,533
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#301 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 6,513
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#302 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 6,513
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#303 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Next door to Florida Man, world's worst superhero.
Posts: 15,635
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#304 |
Muse
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 793
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#305 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 8,880
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#306 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 16,118
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I've never heard an American say it either. At least without cringing. It literally bugs me more than "literally". But not as much as abuse of compound pronouns.
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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#307 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Iowa USA
Posts: 12,131
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Let's get on with the telepathy.
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"Sufficiently advanced malice is indistinguishable from incompetence. = godless Dave |
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#308 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 4,214
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"Such reports are usually based on the sighting of something the sighters cannot explain and that they (or someone else on their behalf) explain as representing an interstellar spaceship-often by saying "But what else can it be?" as though thier own ignorance is a decisive factor." Isaac Asimov |
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#309 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: In my head.
Posts: 7,758
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"If I hadn't believed it with my own mind, I would never have seen it." - thanks sackett "If you stand on a piece of paper, you are indeed closer to the moon." - MRC_Hans "I was a believer. Until I saw it." - Magrat |
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#310 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Adirondacks, NY - with Magrat!
Posts: 7,647
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I used to think I was happy. then I met Magrat... |
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#311 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: High above Indianapolis
Posts: 1,831
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Congratulations, you have successfully failed to model something that you assert "isn't noticeable". -The Man Science is not hopelessly hobbled just because it knows the difference between fact and imagination. -JayUtah |
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#312 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 493
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#313 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 5,467
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#314 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 8,880
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#315 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 26,380
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That's covered in the "I then post the sequence here as a hash" bit, isn't it? LL posts an encrypted version of the sequence, you post your sequence in clear, then LL posts the decryption key so anyone can compare the two. Sounds good enough to me, as it eliminates cheating while not requiring a third party.
Dave |
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Me: So what you're saying is that, if the load carrying ability of the lower structure is reduced to the point where it can no longer support the load above it, it will collapse without a jolt, right? Tony Szamboti: That is right |
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#316 |
Do you want to date my Avatar?
Moderator Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Florida
Posts: 24,981
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I type the string of cards into this MD5 hash generator along with a nonsense word thrown in to keep it from being forcibly broken. I'll post it before you even make your guesses. It's easy to see if my sequence generates the same hash. For example, the sequence of cards 3H 9H KS 9C and 10H might get a hash that looks like this: a75009ee07ce72cd28e01dabdebe1047 You then make your guesses and, after you're done, I inform people that I encoded "Butterfly3H9HKS9C10H". Anyone can go to the MD5 generator, paste that in and get: a75009ee07ce72cd28e01dabdebe1047. The hashes are the same. If I try to change even one letter, like telling people that I pulled the queen and not the king of spades, the whole hash changes. "Butterfly3H9HQS9C10H" creates the hash: 4751a47d3e977156c1c85974989a6124. That's not just a little bit different, it's completely and obviously different. It's a very efficient way to prevent cheating. |
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I have the honor to be Your Obdt. St L. Leader |
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#317 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 493
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Okay King, are you good with the proposal? LL will pick five cards from a deck of 52 and post a hash. Then LL looks at a card for 5 minutes at a time you suggest. One card each of five consecutive days. Shortly after each time, you post publicly the card. After the fifth time, LL posts the answers. To score, you have to match all five exactly in order.
Will that work? |
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#318 |
Do you want to date my Avatar?
Moderator Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Florida
Posts: 24,981
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I had initially suggested the entire deck of 52 at an exact time of his choosing, concentrating on each for five seconds per card. He'd need to get 10 right to warrant further testing. If he'd think he'd be stronger at remote viewing, I'll put five cards in an envelope and keep it for however long he wants. In that case, 4 out of 5 would be impressive enough to repeat the test. |
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I have the honor to be Your Obdt. St L. Leader |
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#319 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 493
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#320 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 17,477
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Who is General Failure? And why is he reading my hard drive? |
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