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Tags telepathy , telepathy test

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Old 27th September 2017, 03:37 PM   #321
jrhowell
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Sounds good enough to me, as it eliminates cheating while not requiring a third party.
It doesn’t eliminate cheating by collusion between the two parties. That is what I will suspect if this test is actually successful.
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Old 27th September 2017, 05:15 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by King of the Americas View Post
Recent events and displays of well researched data has indicated to me, that 'telepathy' or the ability to extend one's consciousness beyond one's cranium is a real measurable phenomena, that has its basis in natural selection...

Ever feel like someone or something is watching you? Prey animals who can sense being watched, OFTEN look in direction of their stalker. If you look at the back of someone's head, more often than not they will turn and look right at you. Animals and humans who could identify the direction of an incoming predator were and are more likely to escape.

Fish and birds 'might' be using a single conscious rather than local physical inputs to alter direction.

When we see...light bounces off an object, is received by our retinas, flip-turned-right side up, and a picture is formed. But is that picture in our heads, or is it projected outward, outside of us, and by simply observing it, can we alter or change it, without touching it...?

After a few youtube searches I found some rather astounding test results.

Anyone here want to run a test, employing skeptics as the subjects??
"Spidey" senses?

There are plenty of examples in LE and the military where somebody felt "something" right before the situation went south, but for it to be anything other than coincidence that individual would need to have it happen more than once and it would be necessary for that individual to be able to replicate their performance directed by their own will.

I don't see that happening, and I've had that experience - believe me, it wasn't a conscious act on my part
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Old 27th September 2017, 05:46 PM   #323
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Originally Posted by jrhowell View Post
It doesn’t eliminate cheating by collusion between the two parties. That is what I will suspect if this test is actually successful.

That's why I would never suggest that this test should be conclusive of anything. It is not strictly controlled. As such, it is only an aid to help KotA explore his beliefs in his abilities. A positive result should only serve as evidence that he deserves more extensive testing.
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Old 27th September 2017, 05:57 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by King of the Americas View Post
I think I really like this test...!
[...]

I think I like this one: What did you monsters do to predict this butchery, you unholy monsters?
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Old 27th September 2017, 06:12 PM   #325
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Originally Posted by jrhowell View Post
It doesn’t eliminate cheating by collusion between the two parties. That is what I will suspect if this test is actually successful.
And so it begins.


Gather round boys and girls because it's time for everyone favorite game show:



~~~GUESS THE EXCUSE!~~

Today's subject is King of the americas, We will award you with 50 points for every correct excuse you think he'll use.

Winner goes on to the money round.
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Old 28th September 2017, 08:43 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
"Spidey" senses?

There are plenty of examples in LE and the military where somebody felt "something" right before the situation went south, but for it to be anything other than coincidence that individual would need to have it happen more than once and it would be necessary for that individual to be able to replicate their performance directed by their own will.

I don't see that happening, and I've had that experience - believe me, it wasn't a conscious act on my part
I once caught a can of soda thrown at me, and managed to throw it back, damaging the windshield of the car from which it came (parked car, long before I took up throwing as a hobby, which I did because I was so bad at it. ). At the time I had no athletic experience or ability.

Interesting part of the story is my friend who was with me says they yelled something beforehand. While 100% I do no remember hearing anything, it's more likely I heard something and unconsciously took it as a prompt to look.

Now if I was inclined to want to believe in super powers, my view might be different.
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Old 28th September 2017, 07:06 PM   #327
Matthew Ellard
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This is probably against forum Rules, but could not King of America simply log in as another member if we all write down our forum passwords and user names on pieces of paper, at a different specific times, chosen by King of America?

That would indicate if it is worth setting up a 100% foolproof test.

Last edited by Matthew Ellard; 28th September 2017 at 07:07 PM. Reason: left out "on pieces of paper"
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Old 28th September 2017, 07:32 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by Matthew Ellard View Post
This is probably against forum Rules, but could not King of America simply log in as another member if we all write down our forum passwords and user names on pieces of paper, at a different specific times, chosen by King of America?

That would indicate if it is worth setting up a 100% foolproof test.
No need, I fail to see how any "There against me" collusion defeats the hash process.

However, I did set this site up during the Michel H era.
https://projectharpoon.wixsite.com/telepathytest
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Old 29th September 2017, 01:13 AM   #329
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
No need, I fail to see how any "There against me" collusion defeats the hash process.
I think it's important to distinguish between false positives and false negatives. As jrhowell pointed out, the hash process could very simply generate a false positive if the person generating the sequence simply e-mailed the correct sequence to the person trying to receive it telepathically. What it can't do, to within a reasonable degree of confidence, is generate a false negative, because it's an intractable computational problem to generate a hash that can then be decoded with two different keys to generate two different, but internally consistent, sequences. If the answer is incorrect, then, that's strong evidence that no telepathic communication took place.

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Old 29th September 2017, 07:33 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
As jrhowell pointed out, the hash process could very simply generate a false positive if the person generating the sequence simply e-mailed the correct sequence to the person trying to receive it telepathically. What it can't do, to within a reasonable degree of confidence, is generate a false negative ...
Though of course either the sender or the recipient could easily and independently generate a false negative; the former by concentrating on the wrong cards and the latter by telepathically perceiving the right cards but writing down wrong ones.

Remember the guy - Australian I think - who was entirely convinced he broadcast his thoughts but wouldn't take the MDC because he couldn't figure out a way to be certain whichever partner he chose to do the test with would truthfully write down the cards he was projecting. He worried they wouldn't find a half share of a million bucks sufficient encouragement not to lie just to troll him.
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Old 29th September 2017, 07:39 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Though of course either the sender or the recipient could easily and independently generate a false negative; the former by concentrating on the wrong cards and the latter by telepathically perceiving the right cards but writing down wrong ones.
In that case, the challenge would be "Read my mind to find out what the contents of this encrypted message are."

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Old 29th September 2017, 09:27 AM   #332
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
I think it's important to distinguish between false positives and false negatives. As jrhowell pointed out, the hash process could very simply generate a false positive if the person generating the sequence simply e-mailed the correct sequence to the person trying to receive it telepathically. What it can't do, to within a reasonable degree of confidence, is generate a false negative, because it's an intractable computational problem to generate a hash that can then be decoded with two different keys to generate two different, but internally consistent, sequences. If the answer is incorrect, then, that's strong evidence that no telepathic communication took place.

Dave
Fair enough. However, jack pointed out the example I was thinking of too.
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Old 30th September 2017, 01:10 PM   #333
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Remember the guy - Australian I think - who was entirely convinced he broadcast his thoughts but wouldn't take the MDC because he couldn't figure out a way to be certain whichever partner he chose to do the test with would truthfully write down the cards he was projecting. He worried they wouldn't find a half share of a million bucks sufficient encouragement not to lie just to troll him.
I think there's actually two people who have said that. IIRC, that'd be Michael H and golfy.
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Old 1st October 2017, 04:15 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by King of the Americas View Post
Ever feel like someone or something is watching you?
No, never, but that's mainly because I know that that's something that nobody can feel, however much they imagine that they can.
Quote:
Prey animals who can sense (!) being watched, OFTEN look in direction of their stalker.
Anybody who can sense being stalked will look in the direction of a stalker. It takes a conscious, deliberate effort not to do so (i.e. in order to fool the stalker by giving him/her/it the impression that the prey/stalkee is unaware of being stalked). But, of course, your "sense" means sense telepathically, and that never happens!
Quote:
If you look at the back of someone's head, more often than not they will turn and look right at you.
Probably not. It would depend on the time lapse: If on average people tend to cast a glance over their shoulder once every ten minutes or so, thus discovering that somebody is watching them, then of course test situations that lasted more than ten minutes would, on average, produce the result you claim: more often than not! Tests that lasted fewer than ten minutes would, on average, not.
Quote:
Animals and humans who could identify the direction of an incoming predator were and are more likely to escape.
Yes, that's one of the many reasons why animals have eyes, ears, noses and other senses (for instance of vibrations or electrical fields)!
However, even though a pig would be much more likely to escape a predator if it had wings and were able to take to the air, that still doesn't mean that pigs can fly!
You would stand a better chance if you go for the Pigasus Award (Wikipedia).
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Old 1st October 2017, 03:37 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Yes, that's one of the many reasons why animals have eyes, ears, noses and other senses (for instance of vibrations or electrical fields)!
Ha. It's so damn obvious when you spell it out.
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Old 1st October 2017, 03:48 PM   #336
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One of the reasons people think that they can sense people staring at them is that our brains are hardwired to pick faces out of backgrounds. So when someone is looking at you, it's extremely easy for you to notice that, even if it's only in your peripheral vision.

I tried to read Sheldrake's book on the subject, but the way he had to massage and cherry-pick his data annoyed me and I couldn't finish it.
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Old 1st October 2017, 03:55 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
One of the reasons people think that they can sense people staring at them is that our brains are hardwired to pick faces out of backgrounds. So when someone is looking at you, it's extremely easy for you to notice that, even if it's only in your peripheral vision.
Apropos to this, saw/read about the naming of colours in various languages. My details are all going to be wrong, but the idea is that we name the colours we want to talk about.

There's some South American language (I can't recall) that has words only for "black", "white" and "red". Imagine that!

The hypothesis was that we name warm colours because backgrounds are all cool-colours: greens and blues. Warm is faces, fruits and foreground.

Gah! Sorry. Too light on the details.
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Old 1st October 2017, 08:42 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by Donn View Post
Apropos to this, saw/read about the naming of colours in various languages. My details are all going to be wrong, but the idea is that we name the colours we want to talk about.

There's some South American language (I can't recall) that has words only for "black", "white" and "red". Imagine that!

The hypothesis was that we name warm colours because backgrounds are all cool-colours: greens and blues. Warm is faces, fruits and foreground.

Gah! Sorry. Too light on the details.
I read about that years ago. Apparently, it's even weirder. All languages develop words for colours in the same order.
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Old 2nd October 2017, 04:44 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by Donn View Post
Apropos to this, saw/read about the naming of colours in various languages. My details are all going to be wrong, but the idea is that we name the colours we want to talk about.

There's some South American language (I can't recall) that has words only for "black", "white" and "red". Imagine that!

The hypothesis was that we name warm colours because backgrounds are all cool-colours: greens and blues. Warm is faces, fruits and foreground.

Gah! Sorry. Too light on the details.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 12:19 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
5 cards seems about right for a preliminary, unscientific test. Doing it twice would be enough in my mind for more controlled, more scientific testing.
Seems right based on what? Your calculation that the probability of winning by chance is 1 in 1.3 million or Startz's calculation that the probability is 1 in only 270?
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Old 3rd October 2017, 05:55 AM   #341
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So amid all the discussion of whether telepathy (or any other paranormal ability) “works” or not, I seldom see any discussion as to HOW it would work.

The physics of the thing, as it were. Seems to me that for telepathy to work, to have some manner of communication mind-to-mind, that the sender’s mind/brain would have to “encode” the thought or message in some way, and then transmit this information, and that the recipient’s brain would have to have some structure to receive the transmission and decode it as well.
Would this “transmission” be like radio, broadcast generally and only picked up by “sensitive” individuals, or “narrowcast” in such a manner that the recipient was targeted?

If the latter, how would that be accomplished. If the former, why wouldn’t large numbers of psychics be bombarded by a veritable sea of transmissions all the time? Can they “tune” their individual receivers like a radio dial?
I know all sorts of fictional scenarios have the psychic gradually learn in some way to focus on a particular message, and to block out the others, but no mechanism for these tasks is ever described.

We can quite easily measure radio waves, even fantastically weak ones from spacecraft millions of kilometers away. Yet no one has ever been able to measure what might be carrying these psychic messages.
Part of the electromagnetic spectrum? You wouldnt’ think so...
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Old 3rd October 2017, 06:42 AM   #342
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
Seems right based on what? Your calculation that the probability of winning by chance is 1 in 1.3 million or Startz's calculation that the probability is 1 in only 270?
I think my 1 out of 270 was for a different experiment (putting down 52 cards and getting 5 or more right). In any event, the experiment here is to put down 5 cards and get them all right. The odds of getting the first one right is 1/52. Doing that and then getting the second right as well is (1/52)*(1/51). Etc.

The probability of doing that by chance is vanishingly small.

Anyhow, Loss Leader has proposed a very nice test. The "holes" in it involve Loss Leader cheating, which I for one am not worried about. KotA has indicated he would like to do a test.

All we really need now is for KotA to say "let's go."
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Old 3rd October 2017, 07:24 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Bikewer View Post
So amid all the discussion of whether telepathy (or any other paranormal ability) “works” or not, I seldom see any discussion as to HOW it would work.
That is because, according to the physics that we know, it is not possible.

We can detect electromagnetic radiation way beneath the noise level in the brain. You can be quite sure that another brain cannot pick up signals that weak.

In fact, we know all the fields that would have to be involved in telepathy, and none would work at the temperature range that brains work in.

On the other hand, our understanding of physics could be wrong, and any credible demonstration of telepathy would cause physicists to revise that understanding.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 07:32 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by Bikewer View Post
So amid all the discussion of whether telepathy (or any other paranormal ability) “works” or not, I seldom see any discussion as to HOW it would work.
Realistically, though, that's secondary to proof that it does work. If it doesn't, then the fact that our current understanding of science offers no possibility of a mechanism is neither surprising nor cause for concern; if it's proven beyond reasonable doubt to work, then the absence of a mechanism is a missing part of our understanding of science, rather than a counter-argument. As the current status quo is that there is strong experimental evidence that there is no such phenomenon, discussion of how it would work if it did work is more in the province of science fiction.

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Old 3rd October 2017, 08:52 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by Bikewer View Post
So amid all the discussion of whether telepathy (or any other paranormal ability) “works” or not, I seldom see any discussion as to HOW it would work.
It's pretty certain that any proposed explanation will use the word "quantum" many, many times.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 01:26 PM   #346
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Yeah, the basic principle is that you need to demonstrate that it works before getting into how it works.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 06:31 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
On the other hand, our understanding of physics could be wrong, and any credible demonstration of telepathy would cause physicists to revise that understanding.
I suspect that any supposedly credible demonstration of telepathy would just make most physicists laugh. Perhaps one or two might wonder what went wrong in the telepathy experiment.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 06:47 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
I suspect that any supposedly credible demonstration of telepathy would just make most physicists laugh. Perhaps one or two might wonder what went wrong in the telepathy experiment.

And they'd be right to do so. That's why the test should be repeatable by other scientists. I wouldn't ask an ant to believe in a boot on the basis of one trial.*


*Because the ant would be dead. It's not the best example.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 08:06 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by Startz View Post
I think my 1 out of 270 was for a different experiment (putting down 52 cards and getting 5 or more right). In any event, the experiment here is to put down 5 cards and get them all right. The odds of getting the first one right is 1/52. Doing that and then getting the second right as well is (1/52)*(1/51). Etc.

The probability of doing that by chance is vanishingly small.

Anyhow, Loss Leader has proposed a very nice test. The "holes" in it involve Loss Leader cheating, which I for one am not worried about. KotA has indicated he would like to do a test.

All we really need now is for KotA to say "let's go."
Unless KofA claims his telepathy is 100% accurate, this is not a valid test. The correct way to design the test is to ask the claimant what his accuracy rate is, and then design the test to have acceptably low false positive and false negative error rates.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 08:24 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by Startz View Post
Anyhow, Loss Leader has proposed a very nice test. The "holes" in it involve Loss Leader cheating, which I for one am not worried about. KotA has indicated he would like to do a test.
[Never mind. I had a security suggestion, but it had already been proposed.]

Last edited by jt512; 3rd October 2017 at 08:58 PM.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 08:57 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
Unless KofA claims his telepathy is 100% accurate, this is not a valid test. The correct way to design the test is to ask the claimant what his accuracy rate is, and then design the test to have acceptably low false positive and false negative error rates.
True. But KofA seemed to indicate earlier that he was okay with this sort of test.

In any event, there's nothing formal here--no million dollars at stake. It's just to give KofA a chance to give some informal evidence of telepathy. If the test indicates positive results, something more careful can be set up.

King, are you there?
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Old 3rd October 2017, 08:59 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
Perhaps this has already been suggested, but to ensure against cheating by the test administrator, couldn't the selected cards be recorded in a text file, and then a secure checksum of the file be published? Recomputing the checksum on the file after the test would show whether the file has been altered or not.
The test administrator could pick cards and post them, and then stare at different cards during the test.

A formal test would require witnesses/recording/etc. But I think trusting LL is just fine for the moment.
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Old 3rd October 2017, 10:12 PM   #353
jt512
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Originally Posted by Startz View Post
True. But KofA seemed to indicate earlier that he was okay with this sort of test.

In any event, there's nothing formal here--no million dollars at stake. It's just to give KofA a chance to give some informal evidence of telepathy.
The proposed test, 5 out of 5 cards, is not a valid test, formal or informal, unless KofA claims he is 100% accurate.

Quote:
If the test indicates positive results, something more careful can be set up.
Requiring 5 out of 5 correct to be a positive result virtually guarantees that he will fail the test, even if he really has telepathic ability. The test is so biased against the claimant that it is virtually guaranteed not to "indicate positive results."

If you're serious about testing him, design a test that is actually useful. It's not that hard. Furthermore, there is no reason in the world that the test cannot be rigorous.

As I have suggested, if you're serious about actually doing this in a valid manner, the first step is to obtain from the claimant a quantitative claim: You need to ask him, "What can you do, and in repeated trials, what proportion of the time can you do it?" Only then can you design a test that is fair both to the claimant and to skeptical adversaries.

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Old 3rd October 2017, 10:28 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by Startz View Post
The test administrator could pick cards and post them, and then stare at different cards during the test.
Good point. Could a time-stamped video be used?
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Old 4th October 2017, 03:14 AM   #355
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Originally Posted by Spektator View Post
"Though few are aware of it, all New York booking agents are descended from a tribe that has no word in its language for 'no.' The closest they can come is 'I'll get back to you.'" If I recall correctly, that came from Woody Allen. But maybe not. You know how it is.
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Old 4th October 2017, 03:16 AM   #356
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Originally Posted by Bikewer View Post
So amid all the discussion of whether telepathy (or any other paranormal ability) “works” or not, I seldom see any discussion as to HOW it would work.
All it takes is delusion.
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Old 4th October 2017, 06:13 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
The proposed test, 5 out of 5 cards, is not a valid test, formal or informal, unless KofA claims he is 100% accurate.

Requiring 5 out of 5 correct to be a positive result virtually guarantees that he will fail the test, even if he really has telepathic ability.

I had suggested picking all 52 cards from which he would have to get 5 right. I certainly don't demand that he take this test or agree to this protocol. Since he was somewhat vague, I've asked him if he believes this is a something his powers allow him to do. If he says it isn't, I can design a test of whatever his claimed ability is at whatever degree of certainty he thinks he can achieve.

I would never demand 5 out of 5 and nothing less. That's unfair even for science we know to be true. Testing of any sort has an error rate. Pretending that it doesn't precludes positive results.
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Old 4th October 2017, 06:16 AM   #358
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
The proposed test, 5 out of 5 cards, is not a valid test, formal or informal, unless KofA claims he is 100% accurate.



Requiring 5 out of 5 correct to be a positive result virtually guarantees that he will fail the test, even if he really has telepathic ability. The test is so biased against the claimant that it is virtually guaranteed not to "indicate positive results."

If you're serious about testing him, design a test that is actually useful. It's not that hard. Furthermore, there is no reason in the world that the test cannot be rigorous.

As I have suggested, if you're serious about actually doing this in a valid manner, the first step is to obtain from the claimant a quantitative claim: You need to ask him, "What can you do, and in repeated trials, what proportion of the time can you do it?" Only then can you design a test that is fair both to the claimant and to skeptical adversaries.
Sure. Fine.

King agreed in principle to a specific test. Some variants have been suggested. I'm sure that if King has reservations about which test to use that LL will be happy to make reasonable modifications.

The problem isn't really designing a fair test. The issue is that after saying he'd like to be tested, King hasn't posted in a week. Maybe he's not really interested. I hope he returns and carries through.
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Old 4th October 2017, 06:27 AM   #359
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
I would never demand 5 out of 5 and nothing less. That's unfair even for science we know to be true.
Really? How about if we made it a test of telephonic, rather than telepathic, communication: you generate a sequence of five cards, generate your hash and post it, phone me up and tell me the sequence of five cards, which I then write down and post on the forum. How many would you expect me to get right?

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Old 4th October 2017, 10:51 AM   #360
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Really? How about if we made it a test of telephonic, rather than telepathic, communication: you generate a sequence of five cards, generate your hash and post it, phone me up and tell me the sequence of five cards, which I then write down and post on the forum. How many would you expect me to get right?

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