ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Catalonia incidents , Catalonia issues , independence movements , separatist movements , Spain incidents , Spain issues , Spain politics

Reply
Old 8th October 2017, 10:06 AM   #241
Architect
Chief Punkah Wallah
 
Architect's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 9,545
You know, someone linked to the El Pais piece on "myths of Catelan independence" above. I'd already read it, and it was so blatantly partisan that I had to laugh that anyone could really accept it without question. If the mainstream Spanish press take a similar view then it's hardly surprising that so many people elsewhere in that country seem incredulous at events in the region.
__________________
When the men elected to make laws are but a small part of a foreign parliament, that is when all healthy national feeling dies.

James Keir Hardie (1856 - 1915): Politician, Founder of Scottish Labour Party
Architect is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th October 2017, 02:00 AM   #242
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I know who the Nazis were in Catalonia last Sunday and they weren't Catalan.
I'm fairly sure Nazis weren't so considererate as to use rubber bullets when a part of their empire wanted to secede.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Uprising

I invoke Godwin law.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th October 2017, 02:07 AM   #243
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Massive censorship means Madrid media, viewable here, has contained no images of police beating women and the elderly since events began. Slowly, the propaganda fix wraps around events to squeeze every last fact out of reality. Euronews now only broadcasts Madrid-approved pap. Macron's France24 interview a cantankerous old dolt and named him the "silent majority." And so on.
Well:

http://www.politico.eu/article/catal...or-drops-poll/

The Centre for Opinion Studies, the polling organization of the regional government, released new figures showing the percentage of people supporting a Catalan independent state dropped to 41.1 percent in June from 44.3 percent in March.

The best information we have shows the support for independence is and always was well shy of 50%. A majority of 50% plus one vote is decidedly not enough to pull what the Catalan authorities are trying to pull. You need support in excess of 80% to go ahead with such actions and have a reasonable hope of success and anything under 60% is doomed to fail.

Who has the warped view of reality, then? France24 or you?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; 9th October 2017 at 02:09 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th October 2017, 11:35 AM   #244
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 37,260
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Well:

http://www.politico.eu/article/catal...or-drops-poll/

The Centre for Opinion Studies, the polling organization of the regional government, released new figures showing the percentage of people supporting a Catalan independent state dropped to 41.1 percent in June from 44.3 percent in March.

The best information we have shows the support for independence is and always was well shy of 50%. A majority of 50% plus one vote is decidedly not enough to pull what the Catalan authorities are trying to pull. You need support in excess of 80% to go ahead with such actions and have a reasonable hope of success and anything under 60% is doomed to fail.

Who has the warped view of reality, then? France24 or you?

McHrozni
Get with the program; The opinions of evil reactionaries and counter revolunaries don't count!
Getting serioius, this is another case of people adapting a viewpoint that fits their ideology without waiting for the facts. That most of the big time supporters of Catalan Independence are also Scottish Nationlaist Party members is not a coincidence.
(and they have been pretty quiet about the drubbing that the SNP took at the polls in the last election).
__________________
Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty.

Robert Heinlein.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th October 2017, 12:26 PM   #245
Architect
Chief Punkah Wallah
 
Architect's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 9,545
With respect, I'm not quite sure what you hope to bring to the table with that post beyond an attempt to goad Craig and myself into derailing the current discussion in response to your somewhat incorrect rendering of the most recent General Election Results.

Back on topic, however, McHronzi posted an old article which refers to early summer polling results. Unfortunately the Centre for Opinion Studies does not carry an English language translation of their most recent (late September) results and my command of the Iberian languages is somewhat poor, but it might be helpf if someone with greater language ability and time were to confirm where the polls were going.

As for whether an independence vote requires 50%, 60%, or 80% one has to consider whether the selection of that threshold has been selected to suit one side or the other (and if so, then why). For those who say 50% is too low, that is what the French Constitution requires. The US Constitution, as far as I can see, only requires an amendment to be ratified by three quarters of the States before it is adopted. And other countries have other benchmarks.

My view is that those who seek an unrealistically high figure, such as 80%, are seekign to impose a constitutional block that is not reflected in other political processes. On the other hand I can see the case that a simple majority of 50%+1 runs the risk of disenfranchising a substantial part of the population.
__________________
When the men elected to make laws are but a small part of a foreign parliament, that is when all healthy national feeling dies.

James Keir Hardie (1856 - 1915): Politician, Founder of Scottish Labour Party

Last edited by Architect; 9th October 2017 at 01:09 PM. Reason: Typo
Architect is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th October 2017, 01:53 PM   #246
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Get with the program; The opinions of evil reactionaries and counter revolunaries don't count!
Getting serioius, this is another case of people adapting a viewpoint that fits their ideology without waiting for the facts. That most of the big time supporters of Catalan Independence are also Scottish Nationlaist Party members is not a coincidence.
(and they have been pretty quiet about the drubbing that the SNP took at the polls in the last election).
The opinions of evil reactionaries were expressed in a referendum, and because a majority voted No, there was no Declaration of Independence in Scotland. That is a democratic procedure.

Let me return to the puzzlement expressed in the opening post. If indeed there is a majority for unionism in Catalonia, and there may well be: why is Madrid behaving so unpleasantly in that region? If the referendum is going to produce results agreeable to Madrid, why send in the cops to confiscate ballot boxes and abuse voters? The example of Ireland in 1916 has been raised, where a population, in all probability generally opposed to the insurgency, became disaffected because of British foolishness and misbehaviour. Secession was the result.

Since I started this thread the conduct of Madrid has become even more provocative and extreme. If you know the vote is going your way, why in God's name confiscate the ballot boxes? This gives the separatists an excuse to challenge the result of the vote.

Previously, political movements were condemned if they resorted to violent extremism. These are being condemned for holding referendums or participating in parliamentary elections, and abiding by the results. Violence has been introduced into the process by the unionists of Madrid. God forbid that their counterparts in Scotland should decide to follow this bad example. (The only violence in the Scottish Indyref campaign was a triumphalist riot perpetrated by Orange adherents in Glasgow after the announcement of the result) or - Heaven help us - in Northern Ireland, where May formed an alliance with unionist extremists following the drubbing the Tories took at the polls in the last election.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th October 2017, 03:38 PM   #247
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 40,753
Yes, it would probably be a derail to explain yet again that the SNP won the 2015 general election handsomely in Scotland, so we shouldn't go there.

I don't think it's by any means a given that there is a unionist majority in Catalonia. It has been pointed out that about 25% of Catalans simply don't vote at all, in any election, have never voted in their lives, and are unlikely to start any time soon. The trick the unionists are playing is to announce a boycott of any referendum and then co-opt the all non-voters on to their side.

I don't have the figures to hand here but if I'm wrong I'm sure someone will point it out.

Take the total number of eligible voters in Catalonia. Subtract 20% (on the assumption that maybe some of the habitual non-voters would stir themselves for a level-playing-field independence referendum). Your target for a 50% vote in a level playing field referendum is 50% of that figure.

Take the number of actual Yes votes cast last week

Take the 700,000 ballot papers confiscated by the Spanish police while still in their ballot boxes and allocate to Yes the same proportion of these as was cast for Yes in the ballots that were actually counted. Add that to the total number of Yes votes.

Now, consider the difference between the actual turnout (counted ballots plus confiscated ballots) and the notional 80% turnout in a level playing field referendum. Being really, really kind to the No camp, allocate only 10% for Yes. (There is no doubt that a significant number of potential Yes voters were intimidated away from the polling stations last week.) Add that 10% to the total.

At this point you are over 50% for Yes. Whether you're over 55% I don't know, but Madrid is right to keep trying to prevent a fair vote. They'd probably lose.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

Last edited by Rolfe; 9th October 2017 at 03:39 PM.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th October 2017, 03:40 PM   #248
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 40,753
We keep hearing about the silent majority. Funny how the silent majority seems to turn out to be a bunch of right-wing fascists.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th October 2017, 06:42 PM   #249
quadraginta
Becoming Beth
 
quadraginta's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Central Vale of Humility
Posts: 19,071
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
We keep hearing about the silent majority. Funny how the silent majority seems to turn out to be a bunch of right-wing fascists.

That's pretty much who Tricky Dick and Spiro were referring to back when they co-opted the expression.

Nothing much has changed.
__________________
"It never does just what I want, but only what I tell it."
quadraginta is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 12:57 AM   #250
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I'm fairly sure Nazis weren't so considererate as to use rubber bullets when a part of their empire wanted to secede.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Uprising

I invoke Godwin law.

McHrozni
Since the death of Franco we have had reason to expect better from democratic Spain. Are we to be disappointed in our hopes?

Rubber bullets are not a joke, by the way. As a state response to a democratic referendum they are a cause for grave concern.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 01:10 AM   #251
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Rubber bullets are not a joke, by the way. As a state response to a democratic referendum they are a cause for grave concern.
Democracy. You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

An elected authority announcing an unconstitutional change they justifiy with a referendum they held, despite the Constitutional court ruling it to run contrary to the constitution, is not democratic, even if their supporters are a plurality - which they may or may not be, but that's the most they can reach.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 01:11 AM   #252
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
We keep hearing about the silent majority. Funny how the silent majority seems to turn out to be a bunch of right-wing fascists.
I'm not sure using such a broad brush to smear anyone who disagres with you among them helps the Catalan cause any.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 01:15 AM   #253
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I don't have the figures to hand here but if I'm wrong I'm sure someone will point it out.

Take the total number of eligible voters in Catalonia. Subtract 20% (on the assumption that maybe some of the habitual non-voters would stir themselves for a level-playing-field independence referendum). Your target for a 50% vote in a level playing field referendum is 50% of that figure.

Take the number of actual Yes votes cast last week

Take the 700,000 ballot papers confiscated by the Spanish police while still in their ballot boxes and allocate to Yes the same proportion of these as was cast for Yes in the ballots that were actually counted. Add that to the total number of Yes votes.

Now, consider the difference between the actual turnout (counted ballots plus confiscated ballots) and the notional 80% turnout in a level playing field referendum. Being really, really kind to the No camp, allocate only 10% for Yes. (There is no doubt that a significant number of potential Yes voters were intimidated away from the polling stations last week.) Add that 10% to the total.

At this point you are over 50% for Yes. Whether you're over 55% I don't know, but Madrid is right to keep trying to prevent a fair vote. They'd probably lose.
If you're running a fair referendum both sides will have to present their cases to the public. It's trivially easy to show the overwhelming majority of claims presented by Yes side are outright lies. Take 1 out of 4 Yes votes and make it a No, because they were swayed by false promises (like with Brexit) and 1 out of 4 Yes votes and make it a null vote, because they want to see Catalonia independent, but not under these conditions.

Does Yes still win?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 01:33 AM   #254
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Democracy. You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.

An elected authority announcing an unconstitutional change they justifiy with a referendum they held, despite the Constitutional court ruling it to run contrary to the constitution, is not democratic, even if their supporters are a plurality - which they may or may not be, but that's the most they can reach.

McHrozni
Yes it is. I simply disagree with you. In 1918 there was a huge majority for separatists in the General Election in Ireland. The nationalist majority of Irish MPs refused to take seats in Westminster, and instead they assembled in Dublin as Dáil Éireann. That was a democratic procedure.

The British authorities declared this an illegal assembly and arrested its members, thereby provoking a bloody conflict. That was not a democratic procedure.

No doubt the U.K. was constitutionally upholding the Union of 1801 and the Sinn Fein MPs were violating it. But these MPs were behaving democratically, and the UK was not.

Last edited by Craig B; 10th October 2017 at 01:35 AM.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 01:41 AM   #255
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Yes it is. I simply disagree with you. In 1918 there was a huge majority for separatists in the General Election in Ireland. The nationalist majority of Irish MPs refused to take seats in Westminster, and instead they assembled in Dublin as Dáil Éireann. That was a democratic procedure.
Sure.

Quote:
The British authorities declared this an illegal assembly and arrested its members, thereby provoking a bloody conflict. That was not a democratic procedure.
Sure.

Quote:
No doubt the U.K. was constitutionally upholding the Union of 1801 and the Sinn Fein MPs were violating it. But these MPs were behaving democratically, and the UK was not.
In 1918 in Ireland, the pro-independence party won about half the vote and another party which also favored greater self-rule at least won about half the remainder. Save for Northern Ireland, the pro-indepednence parties won large majorities in all electoral districts.

By comparison in 2017 Catalonia, the pro-independence parties barely manage to get half the parliament and according to our best information, manage to get 40-45% of the electorate on their side.

Why should 40-45% of the voters decide on what happens with their constituents and how is that democracy?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 03:39 AM   #256
Abooga
Muse
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 704
Originally Posted by Architect View Post
You know, someone linked to the El Pais piece on "myths of Catelan independence" above. I'd already read it, and it was so blatantly partisan that I had to laugh that anyone could really accept it without question. If the mainstream Spanish press take a similar view then it's hardly surprising that so many people elsewhere in that country seem incredulous at events in the region.
I did, aware that it´s partisan (show me a neutral media outlet, I´ve never found such a mythical beast), but as a good summary of the position of the EU towards the issue. If you can prove the claims wrong, or find a better source, by all means go ahead.

By the way, just yesterday the French "secretary of European issues" warned that an independent Catalonia would be out ot the EU automatically.
Here, from the most "official" pro-Catalan paper:
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica...ropea-dui.html

Last edited by Abooga; 10th October 2017 at 03:40 AM.
Abooga is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 03:56 AM   #257
Abooga
Muse
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 704
Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
As a non-Catalan who can pass as Castilian, I now get to hear all the wonderful slurs and n-words proffered in ignorance, as if I shared their views. Now with even mo' better 'democratic' gusto. Great!
You have bigots and ignorant racists in both camps. But specially in groups with nationalist ideologies, whether Catalan, Spanish of Basque (or any other, really), you´ll find idiots who are attracted to that ideology because it makes them feel superior to the others, the "enemy". Using victimism, tribal feelings, symbols, simplified manipulated history, bullying etc. So it would be fair to compare them to fascists or even nazis without godwinning the thread.

Having said this, Spanish nationalists strike me as more primitive and authoritarian, more fascist, and Catalanists in general more civilised, but nationalism itself is a messed up ideology so I distrust them too.
Abooga is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 04:04 AM   #258
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Abooga View Post
Having said this, Spanish nationalists strike me as more primitive and authoritarian, more fascist, and Catalanists in general more civilised, but nationalism itself is a messed up ideology so I distrust them too.
That's probably a fair assesment, however you can't decide a bunch of people don't count because the other side is "superior and more civilized".

After all isn't that precisely why Nazis were bad?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 04:07 AM   #259
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Abooga View Post
By the way, just yesterday the French "secretary of European issues" warned that an independent Catalonia would be out ot the EU automatically.
This was always a given. The Catalan independence leadership chose to lie to the public about it, claiming Catalonia would be a member of the EU automatically. Some people here think this didn't impact the choices of the electorate at all, which doesn't strike me as a very strong position to take.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 04:07 AM   #260
JJM 777
Illuminator
 
JJM 777's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,928
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Why should 40-45% of the voters decide on what happens with their constituents and how is that democracy?
40-45% of _those who bother to vote_ don't decide anything, usually. Or do you suggest that Catalonia has some unusual election system which gives more seats with less votes?
JJM 777 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 04:11 AM   #261
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by JJM 777 View Post
40-45% of _those who bother to vote_ don't decide anything, usually. Or do you suggest that Catalonia has some unusual election system which gives more seats with less votes?
No, I'm saying that drastic and traumatic changes, like those that would occur should Catalonia pushed forward with independence come hell or high water, need more than 40-45% popular support to deserve the label "democratic".

I'd support it, were the proportions twice as high. With these numbers however there is no case.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 05:11 AM   #262
Giz
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 7,603
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
No, I'm saying that drastic and traumatic changes, like those that would occur should Catalonia pushed forward with independence come hell or high water, need more than 40-45% popular support to deserve the label "democratic".

I'd support it, were the proportions twice as high. With these numbers however there is no case.

McHrozni
A higher level of support, such as might have been demonstrated if the police hadn't been assaulting voters?
Giz is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 05:19 AM   #263
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Sure.



Sure.



In 1918 in Ireland, the pro-independence party won about half the vote and another party which also favored greater self-rule at least won about half the remainder. Save for Northern Ireland, the pro-indepednence parties won large majorities in all electoral districts.

By comparison in 2017 Catalonia, the pro-independence parties barely manage to get half the parliament and according to our best information, manage to get 40-45% of the electorate on their side.

Why should 40-45% of the voters decide on what happens with their constituents and how is that democracy?

McHrozni
That is not in fact your point. What you have been telling me is that it is not up to the people of Catalonia, majority or not, to defy the Spanish constitution and hold a referendum. I state, by contrast, that the people of Catalonia do have such a right, if they decide by a clear majority to exercise it.

So you have been arguing two opposite things, and I want you to clear up this matter by choosing one of these opinions and thereafter sticking to it. Do the people of Catalonia have a right, if a majority of them agree, to secede from Spain?

If you say yes, there is no dispute between us, because I agree that a majority is essential. That's why I'm surprised that Madrid has disrupted the referendum, if Spain believes that the majority is for the union, as you have been stating.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 05:36 AM   #264
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
That is not in fact your point. What you have been telling me is that it is not up to the people of Catalonia, majority or not, to defy the Spanish constitution and hold a referendum. I state, by contrast, that the people of Catalonia do have such a right, if they decide by a clear majority to exercise it.
This is always a gray area. However, I do agree Catalonia has such a right, if they decide by an overwhelming majority of the electorate to exercise it. The right is not granted by the Spanish constitution, which is why it must be an overwhelming majority and not just a "clear" majority (whatever that means) or a majority or, as we see here, a mere plurality.

Overwhelming majority of the electorate is 80% of eligable voters or above. You shouldn't take any significant actions (i.e. holding a referendum) without at least 60% of the entire electorate behind you if those actions are as illegal and unconstitutional as those of the Catalan leadership.

Quote:
So you have been arguing two opposite things, and I want you to clear up this matter by choosing one of these opinions and thereafter sticking to it. Do the people of Catalonia have a right, if a majority of them agree, to secede from Spain?
If the majority is large enough, sure. Currently it's about half what it should be if you're talking about a unilateral and unconstitutional secession.

Quote:
If you say yes, there is no dispute between us, because I agree that a majority is essential. That's why I'm surprised that Madrid has disrupted the referendum, if Spain believes that the majority is for the union, as you have been stating.
The Spanish state is supposed to uphold the Spanish constitution. It's in their job description. The Spanish constitution clearly states Spain is indivisible and the right to self-determination doesn't exist early on, within the first few articles if I recall correctly. Madrid is obligated to disrupt the referendum just as it would be obligated to disrupt any attempt by Morocco to conquer Ceuta or Andalusia.

On the other hand my opinions are not bound by the Spanish constitution. The actions of their state apparatus are. They're sworn to uphld it, I'm not, so I can disagree with what the best actions regarding Catalonia should be and still say the Spanish state didn't do anything wrong - except for unnecessary police violence, which I condemned several times.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; 10th October 2017 at 05:40 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 05:39 AM   #265
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Giz View Post
A higher level of support, such as might have been demonstrated if the police hadn't been assaulting voters?
Perhaps. There is no evidence the level of support would be adequate, see my post above. In fact all the evidence we have shows the level of support is about half of what would be needed for such actions.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 05:49 AM   #266
Abooga
Muse
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 704
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's probably a fair assesment, however you can't decide a bunch of people don't count because the other side is "superior and more civilized".

After all isn't that precisely why Nazis were bad?

McHrozni
I never said a bunch of people don´t count, I was just explaining my impression (a crass generalisation, admittedly) borne of my travels and having met a fair amount of different people in Catalonia, Spain, etc.
Abooga is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 05:59 AM   #267
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Perhaps. There is no evidence the level of support would be adequate, see my post above. In fact all the evidence we have shows the level of support is about half of what would be needed for such actions.

McHrozni
You're just making stuff up now, or pulling things out of your bottom. Either there is a constitutional right of Catalans to decide on independence, or there is not. As you have pointed out to me very clearly, to amend the Spanish constitution would entail a referendum of all Spain, among many other complex procedures. Thus there is no right of Catalans as such to make a decision of that kind. That was clear. But it is not clear how such a procedure could be abrogated by any particular balance of Catalan opinion.

So this hybrid solution to the problem of principled choice confronting you is invalid and untenable, given what you have already told us about legality, constitutionality, and territorial integrity.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 06:08 AM   #268
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
You're just making stuff up now, or pulling things out of your bottom. Either there is a constitutional right of Catalans to decide on independence, or there is not.
This is not really a hard question: the Catalans do not have a constitutional right to decide on independence. The question is whether they have the right to decide on independence based on something other than constitution, for example if an overwhelming majority of Catalans thought Catalonia should be independent, they should be given that regardless of what Spanish constitution said.

Of course the 50% plus one vote they might be able to scrape together (see Rolfe for some creative electoral math) won't do. You need to be north of 60% to even discuss this and north of 80% to do what they're trying to pull off.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 06:30 AM   #269
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
This is always a gray area. ...

Overwhelming majority of the electorate is 80% of eligable voters or above. You shouldn't take any significant actions (i.e. holding a referendum) without at least 60% of the entire electorate behind you if those actions are as illegal and unconstitutional as those of the Catalan leadership.

The Spanish state is supposed to uphold the Spanish constitution. It's in their job description. The Spanish constitution clearly states Spain is indivisible and the right to self-determination doesn't exist early on, within the first few articles if I recall correctly. Madrid is obligated to disrupt the referendum just as it would be obligated to disrupt any attempt by Morocco to conquer Ceuta or Andalusia.
Can you not see the ridiculous contradictions in this mishmash? Madrid is obligated to disrupt a referendum in which Catalan independence would be justified if a certain high level of support was secured. That's a bit contradictory isn't it?

To take your own example. Suppose eighty percent of Moroccan voters agree that Morocco should annex Ceuta or Melilla. (Let alone Andalusia!) Would that be enough support to justify their violation of Spanish indivisability?
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 06:51 AM   #270
Abooga
Muse
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 704
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Can you not see the ridiculous contradictions in this mishmash? Madrid is obligated to disrupt a referendum in which Catalan independence would be justified if a certain high level of support was secured. That's a bit contradictory isn't it?

To take your own example. Suppose eighty percent of Moroccan voters agree that Morocco should annex Ceuta or Melilla. (Let alone Andalusia!) Would that be enough support to justify their violation of Spanish indivisability?
Yes, there is a possible contradiction, between law (the Spanish Constitution) and the Human Right to self determination.

That´s why this is not a black and white issue, Catalans may be right to demand independence at some point (not now with only around 50% support, but in theory, at some point) and Spain is right to currently demand Catalans to respect the Constitution, which was voted by over 60% of the electorate in Catalonia.
Abooga is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 07:08 AM   #271
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
 
Oystein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 14,852
Originally Posted by Abooga View Post
Yes, there is a possible contradiction, between law (the Spanish Constitution) and the Human Right to self determination.

That´s why this is not a black and white issue, Catalans may be right to demand independence at some point (not now with only around 50% support, but in theory, at some point) and Spain is right to currently demand Catalans to respect the Constitution, which was voted by over 60% of the electorate in Catalonia.
Is there a Human Right of self determination? Aren't human rights individual rights? Do I, after 100% Yes vote within my own plot, house and garden, have a human right to secede from my country? If my town votes 80% pro independence, don't the other 20% have the human right to stay in the old state?

I think arguing from human rights gets us nowhere. Ideally, all states ought to guarantee all human rights. If Spain doesn't, the fix is not to secede but to fix Spain's human rights treatment.
__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)
Oystein is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 07:40 AM   #272
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Is there a Human Right of self determination? Aren't human rights individual rights? Do I, after 100% Yes vote within my own plot, house and garden, have a human right to secede from my country? If my town votes 80% pro independence, don't the other 20% have the human right to stay in the old state?

I think arguing from human rights gets us nowhere. Ideally, all states ought to guarantee all human rights. If Spain doesn't, the fix is not to secede but to fix Spain's human rights treatment.
Empires rise and fall. Once Spain had an Empire, and it fell apart. Now the United Spanish state is showing signs of dissolution.

Once Briain had an Empire, and it fell apart. Now the United British state is showing signs of dissolution.

Both these polities became central unified states in the early eighteenth century, during the course a war: the War of Spanish Succession. Perhaps the political structures evolved in these days are now perceived to be obsolete, human rights being one, but not the only one, of the factors in play.

Last edited by Craig B; 10th October 2017 at 07:43 AM.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 08:15 AM   #273
Oystein
Penultimate Amazing
 
Oystein's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 14,852
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Empires rise and fall. Once Spain had an Empire, and it fell apart. Now the United Spanish state is showing signs of dissolution.

Once Briain had an Empire, and it fell apart. Now the United British state is showing signs of dissolution.

Both these polities became central unified states in the early eighteenth century, during the course a war: the War of Spanish Succession. Perhaps the political structures evolved in these days are now perceived to be obsolete, human rights being one, but not the only one, of the factors in play.
I agree that the present shape of states is contingent on a confluence of historical events and will grow anachronistic eventually. It follows that there ought to be ways, preferably peaceful, to reshape states. What I disputed is that a notion of "human rights" is the right way to approach this.

Today's nation states are largely a product of a century (roughly 1775 to 1875) when nation states was all the hoot. A concept developed wherein "nations" are an entity bestowed with rights, opposing the former concept of noblemen and kings with their families being the thing that defined political entities. In the 20th century, the concept of "nation" was perverted, by fascism, into the totalitarion concept of a "people" having rights, as opposed to individuals.

In my mind, it is today difficult to argue for "nation" being the core of states, and to distangle that from the racist "people" concept. A modern state ought to be assembled around a core of political ideas - democracy given as a premise, human rights too, but beyond that: subsidiarity, rule of law, recognition of minority issues, some lebel of economic solidarity, ... I don't see how delineating new states along old concepts born out of historical contingencies will result in sustained improvements all around. Then again, I favour continued dissolution of the European nation states into an ever more fluid EU superstate.
__________________
Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)
Oystein is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 08:21 AM   #274
Abooga
Muse
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 704
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Is there a Human Right of self determination? Aren't human rights individual rights? Do I, after 100% Yes vote within my own plot, house and garden, have a human right to secede from my country? If my town votes 80% pro independence, don't the other 20% have the human right to stay in the old state?

I think arguing from human rights gets us nowhere. Ideally, all states ought to guarantee all human rights. If Spain doesn't, the fix is not to secede but to fix Spain's human rights treatment.
There is such a right, a right of the "peoples", which can also be drafted in terms of the individual´s right to democratic self government. But the issue is quite complex https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination
Abooga is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 09:10 AM   #275
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
... I don't see how delineating new states along old concepts born out of historical contingencies will result in sustained improvements all around. Then again, I favour continued dissolution of the European nation states into an ever more fluid EU superstate.
I'm not sure that what is currently happening is new states being deliniated along old lines. I'm more optimistic in my interpretation of the significance of the present processes of increasing autonomy - within wider bonds of common trade, travel and common responsibilities for the global environment.

For these purposes I think the superpowers and the relic ex-imperial core area states are too big, and too remote. In Scotland it is rather fashionable to envy the smaller Scandinavian polities, and to remind ourselves that in terms of size, technological level and resources, our country fits neatly into that category of small democratic Northern state.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 11:30 AM   #276
Hlafordlaes
Disorder of Kilopi
 
Hlafordlaes's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: State of Flux
Posts: 5,905
Ah, Independence Day! Now come the aliens.

***

Yet another cultural translation:
Q: Was the US a democracy with a constitution prior to the Emancipation Proclamation?
A: Yes, but flawed. Neither the claim of being a democracy or having a constitution are sufficient guarantee of a properly functioning democratic system. Mariano, hear that? La-hu, sa-her!

Q: But Catalans are not an excluded sex or a race, so what's the freaking problem here?
A: The tyranny of the majority, a known potential failing in democracy when it involves identifiable socio-anthropological groups as majority/minority, not just groupings of people by topical opinion.
(1) In the case of blacks in the antebellum US, such tyranny by a racial majority allowed for their permanent disenfranchisement, and remedying that has required redress in Constitutional and legislative law. (Women are a case of silenced majority; different discussion.) It required the sense of deeper democratic values beyond simply majority opinion to overcome, born of an awareness that mobs, too, are majorities that can have their victims.
(2) Catalonia is a regional ethnic minority. The Spanish constitution expressly prohibits regional votes on independence as a measure consciously and fully intended to serve as a fig leaf for permanently shutting down any thought of ethnic minorities getting out from under the thumb of the majority. It's best observed in contemporaneous political discussion under and just after Franco, as well as in very recent years.
(3) In short, the law is that minorities must submit to another, larger ethnic group in practice. Disobeying such a law is the kind of struggle for liberty any moderate should recognize as fully legit. (Think Tibet!)
(4) I.e., the Spanish Constitution has a "Slavery Clause," whose intent is the polar opposite of that of the Emancipation Proclamation. Legacy from Franco's instructions. Yuck, I know.

Q: What's with that King who, just after the referendum, did not mention when addressing the nation the hundreds of bloodied innocents who attempted to vote; many old, many women?
A: Wish I could say. There is a local gag law. He is above criticism, subject to fines and imprisonment. I can say, in general, that when someone is "mo' better equal," that system, even if democratic on the face, just like the US prior to universal adult suffrage, has poison in its democratic veins. Can't say more; but I do find the very idea of bending knee to some pampered trust fund phreak run amok with hubris abhorrent. As a general concept and with no specific reference, of course.

Catalan independence is the answer. The day Castile realizes it is not universally admired in awe, and that all on Earth do not wish to leave for heaven from the closest departure gate, Madrid (a saying of theirs), or speak "Christian" (Castilian), is the day the place grows up and has a chance of something better than a Potemkin democracy that beats innocent women at polling booths.
__________________
Driftwood on an empty shore of the sea of meaninglessness. Irrelevant, weightless, inconsequential moment of existential hubris on the fast track to oblivion. Spends that time videogaming.

Last edited by Hlafordlaes; 10th October 2017 at 11:39 AM.
Hlafordlaes is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 09:58 PM   #277
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Can you not see the ridiculous contradictions in this mishmash? Madrid is obligated to disrupt a referendum in which Catalan independence would be justified if a certain high level of support was secured. That's a bit contradictory isn't it?
No, not at all. The government of Madrid is obligated to uphold the constitution of Spain. The rest of the world is not.

Quote:
To take your own example. Suppose eighty percent of Moroccan voters agree that Morocco should annex Ceuta or Melilla. (Let alone Andalusia!) Would that be enough support to justify their violation of Spanish indivisability?
No. Eighty percent of voters in Ceuta or Melilla (or Andalusia) might be though.

Why do you find something this basic so hard to grasp?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 09:59 PM   #278
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Q: But Catalans are not an excluded sex or a race, so what's the freaking problem here?
A: The tyranny of the majority, a known potential failing in democracy when it involves identifiable socio-anthropological groups as majority/minority, not just groupings of people by topical opinion.
(1) In the case of blacks in the antebellum US, such tyranny by a racial majority allowed for their permanent disenfranchisement, and remedying that has required redress in Constitutional and legislative law. (Women are a case of silenced majority; different discussion.) It required the sense of deeper democratic values beyond simply majority opinion to overcome, born of an awareness that mobs, too, are majorities that can have their victims.
(2) Catalonia is a regional ethnic minority. The Spanish constitution expressly prohibits regional votes on independence as a measure consciously and fully intended to serve as a fig leaf for permanently shutting down any thought of ethnic minorities getting out from under the thumb of the majority. It's best observed in contemporaneous political discussion under and just after Franco, as well as in very recent years.
(3) In short, the law is that minorities must submit to another, larger ethnic group in practice. Disobeying such a law is the kind of struggle for liberty any moderate should recognize as fully legit. (Think Tibet!)
(4) I.e., the Spanish Constitution has a "Slavery Clause," whose intent is the polar opposite of that of the Emancipation Proclamation. Legacy from Franco's instructions. Yuck, I know.

Q: What's with that King who, just after the referendum, did not mention when addressing the nation the hundreds of bloodied innocents who attempted to vote; many old, many women?
A: Wish I could say. There is a local gag law. He is above criticism, subject to fines and imprisonment. I can say, in general, that when someone is "mo' better equal," that system, even if democratic on the face, just like the US prior to universal adult suffrage, has poison in its democratic veins. Can't say more; but I do find the very idea of bending knee to some pampered trust fund phreak run amok with hubris abhorrent. As a general concept and with no specific reference, of course.

Catalan independence is the answer. The day Castile realizes it is not universally admired in awe, and that all on Earth do not wish to leave for heaven from the closest departure gate, Madrid (a saying of theirs), or speak "Christian" (Castilian), is the day the place grows up and has a chance of something better than a Potemkin democracy that beats innocent women at polling booths.
Does all of this apply if the opponents of independence in Catalonia outnumber the supporters? If yes, how is it democratic?

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 11:22 PM   #279
Craig B
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 21,099
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
No, not at all. The government of Madrid is obligated to uphold the constitution of Spain. The rest of the world is not.



No. Eighty percent of voters in Ceuta or Melilla (or Andalusia) might be though.

Why do you find something this basic so hard to grasp?

McHrozni
Stop bring cheeky, or I will end this conversation. I grasp it completely. Because you are entirely contradictory. You have told us that independence for Catalonia would require amrndment of the Spanish constitution, and to infringe that constitution is illegal; therefore the Spanish police are upholding the law against criminality in Catalonia. Fine, OK.

Then you say in contradiction to that; well if there was an 80% majority in Catalonia that would make it OK to secede, but the Spanish police are obligated to prevent such a ballot, and rubber bullets are no big deal in an election. That is absurd. I don't accept that a constitution can simultaneously be inviolable nationwide and amendable by 80% vote in one region of the country.

So the police are ordered to disrupt an election while the government is to accept its results, if they exceed a certain level? They are to encourage therefore a high participation rate, but at the same time are obligated to shoot voters with rubber bullets and confiscate ballot boxes! Nonsense. Make up your mind and stick to whatever decision you arrive at.

Last edited by Craig B; 10th October 2017 at 11:25 PM.
Craig B is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th October 2017, 11:37 PM   #280
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,477
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Stop bring cheeky, or I will end this conversation. I grasp it completely. Because you are entirely contradictory. You have told us that independence for Catalonia would require amrndment of the Spanish constitution, and to infringe that constitution is illegal; therefore the Spanish police are upholding the law against criminality in Catalonia. Fine, OK.

Then you say in contradiction to that; well if there was an 80% majority in Catalonia that would make it OK to secede, but the Spanish police are obligated to prevent such a ballot, and rubber bullets are no big deal in an election. That is absurd. I don't accept that a constitution can simultaneously be inviolable nationwide and amendable by 80% vote in one region of the country.

So the police are ordered to disrupt an election while the government is to accept its results, if they exceed a certain level? They are to encourage therefore a high participation rate, but at the same time are obligated to shoot voters with rubber bullets and confiscate ballot boxes! Nonsense. Make up your mind and stick to whatever decision you arrive at.
I didn't say half those things. Catalonia would be justified in pursuing unconstitutional, unilateral independence if they had a support in excess of 80% of the electorate. That's the minimum, not what they should be aiming for.

Spanish state would also be justified in trying to stop it using non-violent means.

It's entirely possible for a conflict to arise because both parties are right. That's human society for you. If you find this unfanthomable try having a conversation with a human being face to face once in a while, you'll see what I mean

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 09:30 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
© 2014, TribeTech AB. All Rights Reserved.
This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.