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Tags Matt Rouge , michael prescott , psychics

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Old 7th July 2017, 08:16 AM   #121
caveman1917
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
No you can't if you don't know what the claim is
Yes I can, I just did. The claim can be either true or false, partitioning the universe into two sets, call them claim-true and claim-false. Maximum entropy distribution is 50/50. Doesn't need to "mean" anything (yet).

Quote:
you can't even know how many claims are even being made if there is no understanding of the words behind the claim.
It is the claim which can be either true or false, those were the assumptions, remember?
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Old 7th July 2017, 09:00 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
And? Clearly these soldiers don't believe it.
And?
The religious believe they talk to GOD, and some people who have survived cardiac arrest believe they have seen the afterlife. When valid alternate rational explanations exist there is no need to pursue unevidenced fantasy explanations.
The Defense department calls their program,
(From the article)
" Under the Perceptual Training Systems and Tools banner, ... In official Defense Department literature sensemaking is defined as “a motivated continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively.”"
The defense department apparently does NOT call it "precognition", ESP, or psi. The author of that article, on the other hand, does call it those things. I wonder why? Could it be she has written a 550 page book about it which has come to market in March 2017?("Jacobsen is a journalist and the author of Phenomena, from which this was adapted")
This "article" is essentially an advertisement, a teaser if you will, for her book. Have you read it?

When "information about things they could not know about is provided to them, which would make it extrasensory perception", be sure to let me know.
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It's irrational and a good idea? It is irrational to train soldiers to use their "precognitive skills" merely because a couple of them think they have extrasensory perception, right?
Again, and?
Your straw man is becoming overstuffed.

In the interest of open mindedness I have purchased the woman's book (Kindle version). Perhaps the long version will be more forthcoming with the "information about things they could not know about" being provided through extrasensory means.
It will take me many weeks to plow through 550 pages but I'll let you know what I find.
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Old 7th July 2017, 10:03 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by MuDPhuD View Post
And?
And in all cases Darat needs a better argument. After reading a couple of reports of soldiers claiming to have magical abilities, it is no less rational to conclude that you have to train magical abilities than it is that you have to train abilities which are, like, totally unknown and stuff as well as do, like, the exact same thing as the magical abilities are purported to do, but which are not called magical abilities.

And that's even assuming you are correct, rather than that they just have another round of psi stuff but are too embarrassed to actually call it that. If this really was an epiphany about letting soldiers go with their gut instincts, then you'd expect them to have gotten the epiphany from reports which went like "I had a lucky hunch and went with it" rather than the "I have magical powers" ones. And then of course there's the history of previous rounds of psi stuff at this particular institution.

Quote:
The Defense department calls their program,
(From the article)
" Under the Perceptual Training Systems and Tools banner, ... In official Defense Department literature sensemaking is defined as “a motivated continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively.”"
The defense department apparently does NOT call it "precognition", ESP, or psi.
Yes because calling something differently actually makes it different.

Quote:
The author of that article, on the other hand, does call it those things. I wonder why? Could it be she has written a 550 page book about it which has come to market in March 2017?("Jacobsen is a journalist and the author of Phenomena, from which this was adapted")
This "article" is essentially an advertisement, a teaser if you will, for her book. Have you read it?
No, not really interested either.

Quote:
Your straw man is becoming overstuffed.
How is it a straw man?

Quote:
In the interest of open mindedness I have purchased the woman's book (Kindle version).
Why? What are you expecting to find there?
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Old 7th July 2017, 10:21 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Some humans can perform acts which look like psi, they're called magicians.

The definition of paranormal abilities as abilities which are incompatible with the laws of physics does not presume that all those laws are already known.
Suppose someone comes up to you, claims to be able to make entropy spontaneously decrease, and actually backs it up by chemical mixtures spontaneously decreasing in entropy. You check everything and it all checks out, entropy going down.

Would you consider this to show a paranormal ability? I think most would, but by your definition it wouldn't because you can't exclude superior knowledge of physics.
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Old 7th July 2017, 12:38 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Suppose someone comes up to you, claims to be able to make entropy spontaneously decrease, and actually backs it up by chemical mixtures spontaneously decreasing in entropy. You check everything and it all checks out, entropy going down.

Would you consider this to show a paranormal ability?
The second something like that happens, reproducibly, physics will subsume it.

It may be seen as paranormal by those lacking the technical education in the field, but science will be happy to welcome it.
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Old 7th July 2017, 12:45 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Yes I can, I just did. The claim can be either true or false, partitioning the universe into two sets, call them claim-true and claim-false. Maximum entropy distribution is 50/50. Doesn't need to "mean" anything (yet).



It is the claim which can be either true or false, those were the assumptions, remember?
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”
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Old 7th July 2017, 12:49 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
And in all cases Darat needs a better argument. After reading a couple of reports of soldiers claiming to have magical abilities, it is no less rational to conclude that you have to train magical abilities than it is that you have to train abilities which are, like, totally unknown and stuff as well as do, like, the exact same thing as the magical abilities are purported to do, but which are not called magical abilities. ...snip...
Or as I mentioned the military try to "train" for such abilities and the ones that are yet again found to not exist the military won't move forward with but will move forward with those that consistently work enough.. just like they have always done. Which is why in the thousands of years of recorded history the military has never developed "magic"" powers.

You do realise you are providing more evidence for my conjecture (not argument by the way). Please do carry on - saves me effort!
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Old 7th July 2017, 12:53 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Suppose someone comes up to you, claims to be able to make entropy spontaneously decrease, and actually backs it up by chemical mixtures spontaneously decreasing in entropy. You check everything and it all checks out, entropy going down.

Would you consider this to show a paranormal ability? I think most would, but by your definition it wouldn't because you can't exclude superior knowledge of physics.
There are probably as many fictions about the supernatural as there are people on this earth (note that is poetic use of language, not literal).

Show it happens, then one can debate its nature.
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Old 7th July 2017, 02:15 PM   #129
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”
I'll take that as a retraction.

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Or as I mentioned the military try to "train" for such abilities and the ones that are yet again found to not exist the military won't move forward with but will move forward with those that consistently work enough.. just like they have always done. Which is why in the thousands of years of recorded history the military has never developed "magic"" powers.
I didn't claim they developed magic powers, I claimed they are sufficiently stupid/overfunded/desperate/whatever so that what they do or do not do has no bearing on whether the thing actually exists.

But hey, I'm sure that in that wild goose chase for patterns in the randomness it will turn out that there are many patterns to be found indeed, especially when the search is influenced by the guys who do claim to have magical powers.

Quote:
You do realise you are providing more evidence for my conjecture (not argument by the way). Please do carry on - saves me effort!
Your conjecture that if psi was real then the military would be using it? Ok fine, support your conjecture.

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
There are probably as many fictions about the supernatural as there are people on this earth (note that is poetic use of language, not literal).

Show it happens, then one can debate its nature.
No, one can do that before that just fine.
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Old 7th July 2017, 02:20 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by Donn View Post
The second something like that happens, reproducibly, physics will subsume it.
It will only subsume it the second it figures it out, which might be a lot later than when it first happens. It may very well never figure it out.

Quote:
It may be seen as paranormal by those lacking the technical education in the field, but science will be happy to welcome it.
Yes indeed.
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Old 7th July 2017, 02:26 PM   #131
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It will only subsume it the second it figures it out, which might be a lot later than when it first happens.
Nope. Hypotheses would immediately begin to form and be tested against the facts of the phenomenon. That's science.

Until it's a fact, it's a fiction.
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Old 7th July 2017, 02:48 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by Donn View Post
Nope. Hypotheses would immediately begin to form and be tested against the facts of the phenomenon. That's science.
Yes because the, for example, 50 years it took to solve Mercury's precession was actually just a second.
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Old 7th July 2017, 03:22 PM   #133
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Originally Posted by Donn View Post
Nope. Hypotheses would immediately begin to form and be tested against the facts of the phenomenon. That's science.

Until it's a fact, it's a fiction.
Is dark matter a fiction?
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Old 8th July 2017, 05:35 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
Is dark matter a fiction?
Depends on what you mean by the term. I've just finished reading a science fiction book that has "dark matter" in it - that was certainly a fiction.
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Old 8th July 2017, 08:08 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by Donn View Post
Nope. Hypotheses would immediately begin to form and be tested against the facts of the phenomenon. That's science.

Until it's a fact, it's a fiction.
This
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:36 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Those are clearly claims of extrasensory perception.
No they are not.

Sometimes you gain a really good ability to judge situations simply via practise. When I throw a knife I know before it hits the board if it is going to be a bad hit or not. Could I tell you exactly how I know or am processing that fast? Not explicitly, but there is nothing psychic about it. I've thrown knifes thousands of times, seen thousands of hits, and likely I have just learned to feel how the throw leaves my hand and analyse the angle it leaves at to determine if I should throw another or move out of the way of a possible rebound.

Am I psychic? No. I'm not even in that good of shape (by that I mean my reaction time in general is not this quick. ) , but via experience I have a "spidey sense" in regards to knife throwing.
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:41 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
No they are not.
"I have an extra sense through which I perceive things" is not a claim of extrasensory perception... Do you have an example of something which would be a claim of extrasensory perception?
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:42 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
And? Clearly these soldiers don't believe it.



It's irrational and a good idea? It is irrational to train soldiers to use their "precognitive skills" merely because a couple of them think they have extrasensory perception, right?



Again, and?
To clear this up for you.

In general in combat it is better to follow through with a plan than attempt to abort it. For example if I believe there are people in a building it is better to decide to either wait, or to go in. If I decide to go in them change my mind, (or vice versa) it is going to lead, in general to a less tactically beneficial outcome.

This is simply implementing that line of thinking. If I feel I need to do x better to do it and waste energy than to not do it and get killed. Or worse yet attempt to stop doing it and get killed.
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:42 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
This
50 years, a second, they're just easy to confuse timescales...
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:45 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
To clear this up for you.

In general in combat it is better to follow through with a plan than attempt to abort it. For example if I believe there are people in a building it is better to decide to either wait, or to go in. If I decide to go in them change my mind, (or vice versa) it is going to lead, in general to a less tactically beneficial outcome.

This is simply implementing that line of thinking. If I feel I need to do x better to do it and waste energy than to not do it and get killed. Or worse yet attempt to stop doing it and get killed.
And you've recently learned this from reading reports of soldiers claiming to have magical powers? There really is wisdom in magic, who'd have thought.
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:51 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
"I have an extra sense through which I perceive things" is not a claim of extrasensory perception... Do you have an example of something which would be a claim of extrasensory perception?
If I say I feel like a million bucks does that mean I am now made of money?

A claim of esp could be "I know enemy encryption without gaining information in conventional means" , "I know the composition of an enemy force without attaining data through conventional means", " I know if a bullet killed (not hit) a target without observation".

I could think of dozens more, but none of them would include this claim.
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:53 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
And you've recently learned this from reading reports of soldiers claiming to have magical powers? There really is wisdom in magic, who'd have thought.
No, through 32 years of being very interested in combat and combat tactics. And reading many reports, books, watching videos, talking to actual soldiers, none of whom mentioned psi in any way.
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:59 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
No, through 32 years of being very interested in combat and combat tactics. And reading many reports, books, watching videos, talking to actual soldiers, none of whom mentioned psi in any way.
And you're claiming that this program constitutes telling soldiers that it's better to stick to a plan rather than attempt to abort it? Where exactly do those intuitive, not-understood processes come into it?
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Old 8th July 2017, 12:59 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
50 years, a second, they're just easy to confuse timescales...
What's your point?
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Old 8th July 2017, 01:10 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by Donn View Post
What's your point?
That the second Mercury's anomalous precession happened, reproducibly, in 1859 physics had subsumed it, in 1915. Showing you wrong and me right.
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Old 8th July 2017, 01:52 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
That the second Mercury's anomalous precession happened, reproducibly, in 1859 physics had subsumed it, in 1915. Showing you wrong and me right.
Very well, pretend that science is perfect and has always been so. Your quibble does not change the matter: when a fact presents, the puzzling begins.

It is the presenting of genuine evidence, that sways.
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Old 8th July 2017, 02:17 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
And you're claiming that this program constitutes telling soldiers that it's better to stick to a plan rather than attempt to abort it? Where exactly do those intuitive, not-understood processes come into it?
What are you not understanding?

They are telling trained people to go with their instincts because it leads to better outcomes than second guessing your training and instincts.

If you or I were in the same situation (I'm guessing you are not a soldier either ) this would be horrible advice.

So note the deciding factor, training and experience, if you or I went into combat and followed this advice we would have no choice but to agree on everything as our brains would end up in the same pile on the street.
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Old 8th July 2017, 02:30 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
What are you not understanding?

They are telling trained people to go with their instincts because it leads to better outcomes than second guessing your training and instincts.
And they've just recently learned that by reading reports of soldiers claiming to have a "sixth sense"?
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Old 8th July 2017, 02:36 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
And they've just recently learned that by reading reports of soldiers claiming to have a "sixth sense"?
You neither understand my post not your own article. Let's start small.

If I say I feel like a million bucks, would you assume that I think I am now composed of currency totaling one million dollars?
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Old 8th July 2017, 02:56 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
You neither understand my post not your own article. Let's start small.

If I say I feel like a million bucks, would you assume that I think I am now composed of currency totaling one million dollars?
You're claiming that those reports should be understood metaphorically?

So the military, by reading reports of soldiers claiming to have a sixth sense but which should be interpreted metaphorically, learned that telling soldiers to go with their instincts leads to better outcomes? Do you see the problem with that line of reasoning?
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Old 8th July 2017, 03:00 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
And in all cases Darat needs a better argument. After reading a couple of reports of soldiers claiming to have magical abilities, it is no less rational to conclude that you have to train magical abilities than it is that you have to train abilities which are, like, totally unknown and stuff as well as do, like, the exact same thing as the magical abilities are purported to do, but which are not called magical abilities.



And that's even assuming you are correct, rather than that they just have another round of psi stuff but are too embarrassed to actually call it that. If this really was an epiphany about letting soldiers go with their gut instincts, then you'd expect them to have gotten the epiphany from reports which went like "I had a lucky hunch and went with it" rather than the "I have magical powers" ones. And then of course there's the history of previous rounds of psi stuff at this particular institution.







Yes because calling something differently actually makes it different.







No, not really interested either.







How is it a straw man?







Why? What are you expecting to find there?


I suggest you read the rest of my previous post (the one you are quoting from) for the answer to that last question.
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Old 8th July 2017, 03:25 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by MuDPhuD View Post
I suggest you read the rest of my previous post (the one you are quoting from) for the answer to that last question.
It doesn't really say what you're expecting to find there. If you're looking for esp then I think you'll find even less evidence than in the Time article, otherwise it would've made it into the Time article. If you're looking for whether the military thinks it is or is not using/researching esp then I guess it's quite unlikely that the other parts of the book outside that article are going to have that exact same subject matter, so I'd expect to find nothing.
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Old 8th July 2017, 06:22 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
You're claiming that those reports should be understood metaphorically?

So the military, by reading reports of soldiers claiming to have a sixth sense but which should be interpreted metaphorically, learned that telling soldiers to go with their instincts leads to better outcomes? Do you see the problem with that line of reasoning?
No one is claiming the sixth sense exist, they are using an analogy for the description of very mundane good instincts that come with training and experience.

If someone said a medication made them feel like they were 18 again would you assume they changed ages?

If I referred to someone who won a fight well as a ninja would you assume they literally studied ninjitsu?

If I said you can't go home again would you assume you will be physically bared from entering your house?

If I said someone had the body of a geek god, would you assume they have a dead Thor in the basement?

If someone refers to an engineer as being able to preform miracles would you assume he is resurrecting people etc?


No one is claiming superpowers but yourself. They are describing the very real very predictable results of training and experience.
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Old 8th July 2017, 06:30 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
{...}
I'll take that as a "no" to the third question and am just going to stop bothering.
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Old 8th July 2017, 06:57 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by MuDPhuD View Post
No, it claims that soldiers report feeling a 6th sense. I have had that feeling myself, and I believe most of us have. Its part of how the human brain works. Unless you can offer a compelling example of a soldier or anyone else who has received "information about things they could not know about" then I will continue to believe the rational explanation.

No, that is your own straw man to defend if you wish.
I am claiming that relying on your gut instinct in tense dangerous situations is a tricky business, and some training for those who might be able to save lives is a good idea.


In that case I will stick to the rational explanation, as there appears to be no evidence of psi here.
Based on my experience, in these types of incident there is some immediate trigger (sound, or lack of, smell, etc.) that kicks off the reaction of the person experiencing it. It's not some guy sitting in an FOB getting a message through the ether going out in the field the next day and finding out the message was true.

Another side of the soldier as psychic fairy tale is the mother or family member at home that immediately knows the moment their service member was killed or wounded.

My first exposure to that story was when as a kid, the story was recounted to me how this Aunt collapsed at the moment her son was wounded serving in Korea during the war.. I was very impressed, any kid would.

The story as I eventually understood it was just a bit different. Zia collapsed and had the same fit at least once a day while the kid was overseas.

The Kid didn't get wounded, but was injured in a truck accident, non-combat related. He got bruised up.
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Old 8th July 2017, 08:18 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
I'll take that as a "no" to the third question and am just going to stop bothering.
When you have to snip an entire post so your reply does not look silly you have lost the arguement. So by all means take your ball and go home.
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Old 8th July 2017, 10:56 PM   #157
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
I'll take that as a "no" to the third question and am just going to stop bothering.
All while avoiding his questions he phrased differently multiple times for you.
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Old 9th July 2017, 07:11 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
All while avoiding his questions he phrased differently multiple times for you.
Yes because if I ask whether he claims the reports should be interpreted metaphorically then a simple yes or no would suffice, there's no need for a bunch of questions expanding on the notion of "metaphorically" and there's no need for me to be wasting my time with them.
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Old 9th July 2017, 07:22 AM   #159
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Old 9th July 2017, 09:46 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Yes because if I ask whether he claims the reports should be interpreted metaphorically then a simple yes or no would suffice, there's no need for a bunch of questions expanding on the notion of "metaphorically" and there's no need for me to be wasting my time with them.
That's some weak tea there my friend, something is well explained so you feel you don't have to reply? You can try harder than that. ...right?
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