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Tags New Zealand issues , New Zealand politics

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Old 20th July 2015, 01:08 AM   #361
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
It is on their list
What list? There's only two lists and neither of them is a list of Chinese surnames, so I am baffled as to what your point is. Do you actually understand the data? No, scratch that, you keep insisting they derived their analysis from "Chinese sounding names" so you clearly don't understand the data.
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Old 20th July 2015, 01:14 AM   #362
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Enlighten me gumboot

How did they work out Chinese sounding names and go to press without singling out Chinese sounding names
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 20th July 2015, 01:46 AM   #363
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Enlighten me gumboot

How did they work out Chinese sounding names and go to press without singling out Chinese sounding names

Well, they didn't. For starters they didn't base anything on how any names looked or sounded or anything else, and they didn't single out or separate names of any particular ethnicity.

They took an existing data set based on the 2013 census, that has 95% accuracy, and applied it to their data set.

Now, as to the existing data set, it was an ethnicity analysis of the country's population, applied to the census demographic data from the 2013 census. It's a type of demographic analysis that's done all over the world and is widely used. In essence an analysis is done that compares a person's full name with their ethnicity, then determines a probability based on geographic area. Once that analysis was done, the firm then selected out over 3,500 New Zealanders at random whose ethnicity, name and residence was known, and applied their analysis to test the accuracy of their formulation. It came out at 95% accuracy for predicting ethnicity using only a person's name and the area they lived in.

For the house sale analysis they reduced this down to last names as they didn't have full names.

For example, as explained already, in Auckland the surname "Lee" has a 0.48 probability of being European and 0.4 probability of being Chinese. So let's say that 100 of the houses in their sales list were purchased by someone named Lee, 40 sales would have been assigned Chinese ethnicity, and 48 would have been assigned European ethnicity.

Once this formulation was applied for every surname in the sales list, this was then compared to the census information for Auckland, to identify any ethnic groups that might be overly represented in sales data - suggesting a significant foreign involvement. The only ethnicity that stood out was Chinese.

It was considered if it were just that local Chinese were buying out of proportion to their population, however further analysis of the income range for people of Chinese ethnicity and the proportion of Chinese buying houses in various price brackets tends to undermine this explanation - Chinese New Zealanders have below average incomes, but the proportion of house buyers who are Chinese increases as property value increases. Over half of all $1m+ properties are purchased by people of Chinese ethnicity.

What has kind of been missed from the message is actually a little comment buried in the middle of the interview:

Quote:
They [Juwai.com] predicted that’s going to lead to USD 6 trillion being invested outside of China, 2 trillion of that into real estate, and they specifically noted that New Zealand would receive $16 billion—

So what are you saying, Mr Twyford? Are you afraid the Chinese are coming? Because that’s what it sounds like, what you’re saying.

What I’m saying is that there is a tsunami of Chinese investment headed towards international real estate markets, including New Zealand. These numbers are coming from Juwai.com, the preeminent Chinese website that markets real estate, including New Zealand real estate. There’s a whole industry marketing our houses to Chinese investors.
The message, really, is that no matter how bad we think the market is right now, if foreign investment actually is a major factor in increasing prices (and there's ample evidence it is), it's about to get much, much worse, and we need to put something in place right now or we'll be looking back on today as the "good old days".
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Old 20th July 2015, 02:01 AM   #364
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The labour party said Chinese buyers based on their list

No amount of pointless paragraphs saying nothing changes this
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 20th July 2015, 12:40 PM   #365
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One funny part about the whole housing business - a statistic I've seen receiving not even the briefest mention:

Home ownership rates for Pasifika and Maori people in Auckland are under 20%.
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Old 20th July 2015, 01:14 PM   #366
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
One funny part about the whole housing business - a statistic I've seen receiving not even the briefest mention:

Home ownership rates for Pasifika and Maori people in Auckland are under 20%.
That is actually pretty bad really

Lost in the hype
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Old 23rd July 2015, 12:33 PM   #367
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Speaking of bad things, in a story worthy of Captain Obvious, privatising prisons is working out as well as expected.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11485893

Sam Lotu-Iiga will be very happy to represent the Parliament rugby team in England.
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Old 23rd July 2015, 06:07 PM   #368
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Way out of his depth

The rugby thing is a massive beat up though
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Old 23rd July 2015, 09:01 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
The rugby thing is a massive beat up though
?? You've lost me there...
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Old 23rd July 2015, 09:53 PM   #370
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
?? You've lost me there...
From what I understand it is a load of people from all sides going to the rwc using their own cash.

Some how it has turned into a mass junket
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 23rd July 2015, 11:23 PM   #371
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Politicians are involved - how else was it going to go?
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Old 24th July 2015, 01:29 AM   #372
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Fair call
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Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 24th July 2015, 03:20 PM   #373
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Ouch, this Mt Eden Prison story makes some horrible reading.

For anyone interested, here are some of the better bits:

The jail economy a la Mt Eden Prison.

Gang rapes

Needs more Maori wardens

The picture has become quite clear.

If you get remanded to Mt Eden, you have a choice - bareknuckle fist fight a 140 kg street fighting Black Power boxer for 3 minutes or be thrown off the balcony.

After that, as long as you don't snitch and aren't a young white boy, you should be ok.

It's only prison, isn't it?

Just as well Peter Williams died the other day.
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Old 24th July 2015, 05:34 PM   #374
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It is obviously a mess. Being remand doesn't help.

To say similar things in other prisons don't happen is wishful thinking
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 25th July 2015, 11:31 PM   #375
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So any comments on the latest poll showing Winston is the new leader of the opposition?

Little seems to be shrinking like a badly watered pot plant.

Ahern seems to have gone on media training leave for three months to prepare to throw the knife.

(yes I am being a bit mischievous)

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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 26th July 2015, 01:43 AM   #376
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Much as he's a sleazy, two-timing liar, I can't help liking the old bugger. I'm sure half his popularity these days comes from his Daughter on Shortland Street.

I presume you mean Jacinda Ardern?

No chance. She might make a useful deputy one day, but at the moment, she'd be a better bet to start in the Great Northern than take over leadership of Labour.
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Old 26th July 2015, 02:30 AM   #377
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They must be tempted by Robertson because Little is dieng a death
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 26th July 2015, 11:45 AM   #378
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Yeah, he might be yet another Labour leader to whom charisma just doesn't attach.

He's a good bloke with an excellent idea of social progress, but I wonder if he's too close to Key in being 50-ish, white, male for people to look past the veneer.

Maybe we could encourage Jules Gillard to come over and run the outfit!

And how many young voters do you reckon are being swayed by little Max running an Instagram account showing pics of his very hot trophy chick?

I see he has 17,300 followers.

Quite interesting - he's a rare breed in being the kid of a democratically-elected leader who is deliberately building on the inherited fame from dad being PM.
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Old 26th July 2015, 12:08 PM   #379
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yeah, he might be yet another Labour leader to whom charisma just doesn't attach.

He's a good bloke with an excellent idea of social progress, but I wonder if he's too close to Key in being 50-ish, white, male for people to look past the veneer.

Maybe we could encourage Jules Gillard to come over and run the outfit!

And how many young voters do you reckon are being swayed by little Max running an Instagram account showing pics of his very hot trophy chick?

I see he has 17,300 followers.

Quite interesting - he's a rare breed in being the kid of a democratically-elected leader who is deliberately building on the inherited fame from dad being PM.
I think most young people just think good on Max. Lucky ********

While older Labour voters look on in jealously
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 26th July 2015, 01:26 PM   #380
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I think most young people just think good on Max.
I certainly do. If you're born with a silver spoon in the mouth, you'd be stupid not to eat with it.

Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
While older Labour voters look on in jealously
Seriously? Mate, you really should buy a new record every now and then. Your point is equivalent to Americans claiming the world hates them because everyone else is jealous of them.
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Old 26th July 2015, 05:34 PM   #381
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That is all I can take from the criticism of him.

Maybe they arent jealous and they are just taking their hatred of Key out on his son who has done nothing wrong
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 26th July 2015, 08:17 PM   #382
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I've only seen one critical comment on it so far - from some guy who writes for The Press, and you couldn't describe it as hatred.

Yet again, I suspect you're making stuff up.

Or, you could post what you think qualifies.
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Old 26th July 2015, 08:53 PM   #383
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Old school. talkback radio
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Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 27th July 2015, 12:37 PM   #384
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Old school. talkback radio
Riiight.

The sad news is, I think you're serious.

If you base anything on talkback radio, you're going to end up wrong every time. The only thing callers are representative of is talkback radio callers - a small, ugly minority.
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Old 27th July 2015, 02:51 PM   #385
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Riiight.

The sad news is, I think you're serious.

If you base anything on talkback radio, you're going to end up wrong every time. The only thing callers are representative of is talkback radio callers - a small, ugly minority.
Fair call
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Old 27th July 2015, 03:06 PM   #386
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So I had a recent conversation with someone, triggered by the TPPA, about the issue of New Zealanders getting a say on the flag, but not on other important issues like sending troops to Iraq, the operation of the GCSB, signing of the TPPA, and so on.

I pointed out that we did have a say on all of those things - at the last election. And we'll get a say on them at the next.

But it got me thinking. Switzerland practised a limited degree of direct democracy, whereby citizens can force a referendum on any law being debated by parliament. They also have direct democracy at the local level.

The main argument behind representative democracy is that the majority of the population need (and want) to spend most of their time being productive in other areas, and don't want to spend their entire time engaged in politics. Secondly, historically the logistics involved in conducting direct democracy has made it unworkable for large populations such as on the national level.

However, I would argue that modern technology has eliminated both of these hurdles to direct democracy. There's no reason that major legislation couldn't be voted on via electronic referendum. Perhaps, with people voting on major laws dozens of times a year (as they do in Switzerland) the population might become more politically engaged and politically educated.

I think a country like New Zealand is small enough that it might just work.
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Old 27th July 2015, 04:50 PM   #387
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I know what you mean, but

The problem is the size of the population lends itself to way to much influence from lobby groups, be they business, unions, greenies etc

That and we have an ageing population who may not have access to technology

I'l be hammered for saying it, but I don't your average "just reads a few headlines" kiwi should be deciding these

Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
, but not on other important issues like sending troops to Iraq, the operation of the GCSB, signing of the TPPA, and so on.
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Old 27th July 2015, 05:23 PM   #388
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I know what you mean, but

The problem is the size of the population lends itself to way to much influence from lobby groups, be they business, unions, greenies etc
I disagree. I think the evidence from past major public issues indicates that the general population is pretty savvy to lobbying, and doesn't get overly influenced by it. More importantly, if we have direct democracy the lobbying will be directed at the electorate instead of at politicians, which would put the varying sides on more equal footing (even the richest interest groups can't bride the entire country), leading to more honest lobbying.


Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
That and we have an ageing population who may not have access to technology
As of 2012, 80% of New Zealand homes have an internet connection, with 50% of those without a connection citing lack of interest as their main reason for not having it. Using it to vote would certainly provide a reason for utilising it, and there are plenty of options for publicly accessible technology for voting as well.

Even in the 65-74 age group, 60% were classified as "recent internet users". Those at the upper end of the age pyramid are of course going to die off, and the baby-boomers coming through into old age (who are the reason we have an ageing population) have high levels of internet use and general technology uptake.


Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I'l be hammered for saying it, but I don't your average "just reads a few headlines" kiwi should be deciding these
The main reason most people withdraw from political issues is a feeling that they lack influence or a voice. In direct democracy you would anticipate an increase in political participation by the population and a resulting increased awareness of political issues.

Ultimately, the entire principal of democracy is that your average "just reads a few headlines" kiwi is exactly who should be deciding these issues.
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Old 27th July 2015, 08:05 PM   #389
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Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
I think a country like New Zealand is small enough that it might just work.
Oh yeah, what an excellent idea!

Who needs those thicko Pasifika people who don't speak English voting on important matters? Or old farts too stupid to learn how to use an internet. Nobody wants their opinion. Autistic, dyslexic, dysfunctional illiterate bums and all the other useless members of society will be excluded as well.

Might be quite a good idea after all!

In what universe do you think an idea like this is workable? Please keep in mind things like the antivax, 1080 and fluoride "debates" where a minority of nutters manages to get publicity infinitely in excess of their value and manage to influence people purely by the vehemence of their words and actions.
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Old 27th July 2015, 08:12 PM   #390
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That was my thinking.
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 27th July 2015, 08:16 PM   #391
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They would also have to be binding or it is pointless and that is a truly scarey concept
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 27th July 2015, 08:26 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
The problem is the size of the population lends itself to way to much influence from lobby groups, be they business, unions, greenies etc
I'd be less worried about the Lobby groups, and more worried about the media.

Like it or not, a lot of public opinion in NZ is created by the media. Rather then reporting on what we think, our media tell us what to think. Stories are pre-packaged for us with full biases added. The Media can make a Politician look cool and hip, or they can make them into a raving loon all in the way they report the story, edit the footage, and the opinion they add in telling people what to think on the subject.

Case in point, Colin Craig. He never actually said that he believed in Chemtrails or that the Apollo Missions were faked. He was asked loaded questions and then his answers were interrupted and packaged for the public to be "Colin Craig is a loon that believes these things."

Another was the entire National for better teachers vs Labour for more teachers sound bite. In fact Labour's policy also was to provide for better training, and retraining so that they would not only have more teachers and reduce class sized, but that those teachers would be better because they would have been trained better. However when the media got hold of it, they dumped that part and just used the "more Teachers" part.

The Media portrayals of out politicians make or break them. Those they like, they portray well, showing them as likable, charismatic, and giving them good air time. Those they dislike they down play, portray as dull, boring, or try-hards and provide with little airtime to make it seem they never do anything. They sway public opinion on both policy and the politicians themselves. They have even shown that by continued rumour and speculation that they are able to destabilise political parties and topple leaders, more than once. (They could give the CIA lessons in that one.)

The media are supposed to be political neutral and report the stories, but here in NZ far too often our media create, manipulate and bias the stories to their our whims, the public just follow along with them.
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Old 27th July 2015, 09:17 PM   #393
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Like it or not, a lot of public opinion in NZ is created by the media.
Uh, that's what they're for.

The days of journalism have been dead for years. Media companies have been about profit for the past couple of decades, with the sole exception of Aunty Beeb.

Even TVNZ has to pay a dividend or die.

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Case in point, Colin Craig. He never actually said that he believed in Chemtrails or that the Apollo Missions were faked. He was asked loaded questions and then his answers were interrupted and packaged for the public to be "Colin Craig is a loon that believes these things."
He stated that he "didn't know" whether Armstrong & Aldrin landed on the moon. He needed no help in appearing loony.

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
The media are supposed to be political neutral and report the stories,...
I can't believe you actually think that. Why do you think private organisations should act as some kind of truthometer?
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Old 27th July 2015, 09:35 PM   #394
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With the case of Colin Craig. He is obviously a bit nutty, but he did get blindsided by two incredibly stupid off-topic subjects. He just floundered because he is new.
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Old 27th July 2015, 09:54 PM   #395
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Oh yeah, what an excellent idea!

Who needs those thicko Pasifika people who don't speak English voting on important matters?
I'm sorry, are you saying Pacific Islanders would somehow be prevented from voting? Explain, please?


Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Or old farts too stupid to learn how to use an internet. Nobody wants their opinion.
The evidence from Statistics NZ would indicate that "old farts" are more than capable of using the internet.


Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Autistic, dyslexic, dysfunctional illiterate bums and all the other useless members of society will be excluded as well.
Not exactly sure why you think all these groups of people would be excluded. I suppose anyone who decides not to vote will be excluded, but that's already the case now. Direct Democracy might actually encourage better voter turnout.



Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
In what universe do you think an idea like this is workable? Please keep in mind things like the antivax, 1080 and fluoride "debates" where a minority of nutters manages to get publicity infinitely in excess of their value and manage to influence people purely by the vehemence of their words and actions.
In this universe. As already pointed out, they already do this in Switzerland. There's no reason we can't do it too.
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Old 27th July 2015, 10:00 PM   #396
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On another topic, anyone read this Huffington Post column?

The short summary is that Janis Powers equates the death of Sandra Bland in police custody with being asked to take a breath screening test after being pulled over for speeding in New Zealand. Incidentally, she left the country without paying the fine.

The cognative dissonance is pretty spectacular, particularly when she criticises the New Zealand system all the while comparing it to how much better the US system is, even though she's simultaneously relating her experience to a woman in the US dying in police custody after a routine traffic stop. It's pretty mind-asplodingly amazing.

The final summing-up really illustrates the level of mental failure at work:

Quote:
The fact that I was compelled to take a breathalyzer test is certainly on the low end of the spectrum of potential civil rights abuses. The spate of deaths of unarmed black men at the hands of American law enforcement in recent months, and now the death of Sandra Bland, casts a shadow on the notion of what it means to live in the land of the free. Nonetheless, a minor infraction is still an infraction. And in New Zealand, their approach to catching drunk drivers gives law enforcement the authority to act based on the assumption that people are guilty before proven innocent. It flies in the face of the principles outlined in numerous amendments to the American Constitution, as well as thousands of years of legal precedence, dating back to Roman Emperor Justinian. While suffering inconveniences for the greater good is part of living in a society, citizens must question the boundaries that restrict their individual freedoms.

Fortunately, the United States does not use the New Zealand model of police entrapment to catch drunk drivers. And, to my benefit, we also don't extradite our citizens back to foreign countries where they have violated the speed limit. New Zealand law enforcement may have collected my DNA through a breathalyzer test, but they failed to collect my money for the traffic citation before I left the country. Since I can't find the ticket here at home, am I the one who's bending the rules?
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Old 27th July 2015, 10:09 PM   #397
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There is stupid and then there is very stupid and then there is that.
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

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Old 28th July 2015, 12:19 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
I'm sorry, are you saying Pacific Islanders would somehow be prevented from voting? Explain, please?

The evidence from Statistics NZ would indicate that "old farts" are more than capable of using the internet.
Really?

The information I can find from SNZ shows older people as far less likely to use the internet.

Pasifika people are less likely to be connected to the internet.

Pasifika people are the lowest-earning income group and it ought to be a very short step from there to see why many of them struggle to afford a computer.

Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
Not exactly sure why you think all these groups of people would be excluded.
Lack of a computer.
Lack of skills to use one.
Lack of ability to read and /or understand the question and its meaning.


Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
In this universe. As already pointed out, they already do this in Switzerland.
Yeah, with turnouts in the mid-50% range. That truly is democracy in action.

The idea is so utterly absurd that David Frost wrote a film script in 1970 called The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer on that very subject. You should check it out.
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Old 28th July 2015, 05:14 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Uh, that's what they're for.

The days of journalism have been dead for years. Media companies have been about profit for the past couple of decades, with the sole exception of Aunty Beeb.

Even TVNZ has to pay a dividend or die.
Doesn't mean that they have to throw out impartiality and neutral Journalism and start creating opinion with the way they broadcast the stories.

Quote:
He stated that he "didn't know" whether Armstrong & Aldrin landed on the moon. He needed no help in appearing loony.
He said that he didn't know because he wasn't there. I don't know because I wasn't there either, in fact I was only alive for the last one, and even then, just. I'm 95% confident that they did, and all the evidence certainly suggests that they did, but really only those that went truly know if it was real or not. And to put this in perspective, I spent over 5 years arguing against it being Hoaxed and learned more about Apollo than a lot of people, read all the transcripts, have gone through all the photos and have most of the mission footage sitting on my bookshelf. I believe they went, but I know that it's on faith of the current evidence. I don't know they went.

Quote:
I can't believe you actually think that. Why do you think private organisations should act as some kind of truthometer?
Because of these little things called "Truth in Journalism" and "Journalistic Integrity".
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Old 28th July 2015, 05:17 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
There is stupid and then there is very stupid and then there is that.
Something we agree on.
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