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Tags New Zealand issues , New Zealand politics

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Old 14th July 2015, 04:06 PM   #321
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Well it is. I didn't vote National
Well, I can only presume you abstained, or voted for ACT or Dunne, then.

If you're not a National voter, why on earth are you supporting him/them?
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Old 14th July 2015, 05:22 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Do you disagree that the names indicate a 95% likelihood of ethnic origin?

In terms of Johnny Combover's lies, they speak for themselves. Many of them are 100% provable by records, and his claims of "forgetting" are not believable.
Yes and where are they from?

3rd gen kiwis?
2nd gen kiwis?
New NZ citizens?

No. Apparantely not according to Little
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Old 14th July 2015, 05:24 PM   #323
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Well, I can only presume you abstained, or voted for ACT or Dunne, then.

If you're not a National voter, why on earth are you supporting him/them?
I vote who I think will be the best government at the time.

And like most NZers I thought a complete mess of Labour, The Greens and NZ first was about the worst.

And it looks like it will be the same choice again
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Old 14th July 2015, 06:37 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Yes and where are they from?

3rd gen kiwis?
2nd gen kiwis?
New NZ citizens?

No. Apparantely not according to Little
Little has been honest about the status of the information from day 1.

Also, if you don't believe Chinese buyers from mainland China are a huge help in driving the Auckland property market, you should check around.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11391731

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/bus...ap-up-property

It's not news to anyone who knows anything about Auckland.
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Old 14th July 2015, 07:19 PM   #325
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Little has been honest about the status of the information from day 1.

Also, if you don't believe Chinese buyers from mainland China are a huge help in driving the Auckland property market, you should check around.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11391731

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/bus...ap-up-property

It's not news to anyone who knows anything about Auckland.
I'm sure they do have an affect

Just not the scare mongering nightmare size one Little is trying scare people with
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Old 14th July 2015, 07:55 PM   #326
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I'm sure they do have an affect

Just not the scare mongering nightmare size one Little is trying scare people with
Where has he done that?

More here, too.
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Old 14th July 2015, 10:40 PM   #327
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They had it in the news for a week.

I see the bloke at Barefoot and Thomson has been sacked.

Can't see him sending Phil a christmas card
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Old 15th July 2015, 06:05 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I'm sure they do have an affect

Just not the scare mongering nightmare size one Little is trying scare people with

Actually the likelihood is their impact is greater. I suppose if you know nothing about the sky-rocketing house prices in Auckland, and also know nothing about what's happening with the economy in China, you might view this whole thing as a nasty bit of old-fashioned racism.

But race or ethnicity really has nothing to do with it. Wealthy Chinese are moving their funds out of China as fast as they can, and the Auckland property market is one of the most appealing directions for their investment.

For a local buyer, whether they're of European, Maori, Chinese, or Afghani ethnicity, an extra 100K added to the price of the house means another 100K worth of mortgage they have to try manage. To a wealthy businessman from Mainland China it's 100K more they've managed to get out of China. They literally don't care how much they spend.

It should be noted we're not the only country in the world dealing with this sudden influx of Chinese capital driving up prices for locals. It's happening in numerous places, because typically residential properties don't have the same level of foreign investment scrutiny that larger investments do. If you want to invest a couple of hundred million into a farm or apartment buildings and you're a foreigner, the authorities will have to sign it off, which could prove troublesome. But invest a couple of hundred million in ordinary residential houses, and no one even knows you've done it.

It's also not a problem uniquely coming from China, though they're a big issue at the moment because of their economic situation. Spain has had a nearly identical problem with foreign investors (mostly from the UK) driving up residential prices beyond the reach of locals.

It's a very real and serious economic issue, and it needs to be addressed. And the first step is to start actually recording details about people who buy houses, like they do in most countries. That way we can actually measure the scope and nature of the problem accurately. At the moment we're fumbling around in the dark, chasing surnames and relying on anecdotes from insiders.
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Old 15th July 2015, 05:15 PM   #329
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I have no issue with addressing over investment from foreigners.

I find it funny though that people have to clutch at that as the only cause of Aucklands problems when the vast majority of mass property buying investors are probably the kiwis standing next to them at the auction

Property investment has become a national sport
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Old 16th July 2015, 12:33 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I have no issue with addressing over investment from foreigners.

I find it funny though that people have to clutch at that as the only cause of Aucklands problems when the vast majority of mass property buying investors are probably the kiwis standing next to them at the auction
Who's doing that?

You are displaying a perfect example of the knee-jerk reaction to the information that National wants you to talk up. Scream that Labour is racist and blaming the entire property debacle on Chinese investors.

If you read what is actually being said, nobody outside of the lunatic fringe is saying Chinese are entirely to blame.

On the other hand, there is no doubt they are contributing to the problem.

Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Property investment has become a national sport
Aided by total inaction Mr Key.
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Old 16th July 2015, 01:28 AM   #331
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They did an entire policy based on a spreadsheet of names that sound slightly asian Atheist.

Please tell me you don't think that was a good idea
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Old 16th July 2015, 03:13 PM   #332
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
They did an entire policy based on a spreadsheet of names that sound slightly asian Atheist.
Nonsense.

There is no policy based on the information and as I've said several times, Labour and Little have been honest about the limitations of the information.

Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Please tell me you don't think that was a good idea
If it were true, I would think it was a terrible idea.

Fortunately, it's bollocks.
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Old 16th July 2015, 04:37 PM   #333
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Then it was a pretty pointless exercise
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Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 16th July 2015, 06:03 PM   #334
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Well, stick to facts next time instead of making stuff up.
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Old 16th July 2015, 06:25 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Well, stick to facts next time instead of making stuff up.
OK then. Lets talk facts

You do realise that Labour have got them completely wrong?

Twyford - "Asians make up 9% of Auckland's population"

Lies Twyford. Either that or you are an idiot.

Asians make up 23% of Auckland's population

They make up 9% of the whole of New Zealand

This is why I find it difficult to take anything Labour says seriously Atheist
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Old 16th July 2015, 10:00 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post

This is why I find it difficult to take anything Labour says seriously Atheist
He's leaving Indians out of the Asian numbers, which isn't all that odd, because most Indians don't consider themselves Asian.

It is bloody funny how you focus on one little point - even if it were wrong, so what? - while completely ignoring the cause and who brought that cause into being.
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Old 16th July 2015, 10:36 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
He's leaving Indians out of the Asian numbers, which isn't all that odd, because most Indians don't consider themselves Asian.

It is bloody funny how you focus on one little point - even if it were wrong, so what? - while completely ignoring the cause and who brought that cause into being.
Doesn't add up

One little point?

It is their basis for policy
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

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Old 16th July 2015, 10:38 PM   #338
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I also find it odd you slag off Key over a bunch of assumptions yet when Twyford straight out lies it is "who cares?"
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Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 16th July 2015, 11:32 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Doesn't add up

One little point?

It is their basis for policy
As always, your claims of Labour policy are simply false.

Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I also find it odd you slag off Key over a bunch of assumptions yet when Twyford straight out lies it is "who cares?"
It's not a lie - I explained that above. It is a mistake at worst, and not even that if you subtract Indians.
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Old 16th July 2015, 11:40 PM   #340
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It was a blatantly getting the facts wrong.

Because it is labour apparently its a mistake (and it probably was)

But if it were Key you would be saying it's a lie. I know it. You know it.

I just take most things both sides say with a grain of salt these days. Till I get a chance to look through the facts
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 16th July 2015, 11:55 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
But if it were Key you would be saying it's a lie. I know it. You know it.
Nope.

You'd need to read my blog, but I have given him [grudging] praise on the few occasions he's deserved it.

Can't stand him, but I don't make stuff up.
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Old 17th July 2015, 12:07 AM   #342
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I've actually seen it on Google. I will have a look.
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 19th July 2015, 06:01 PM   #343
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
They did an entire policy based on a spreadsheet of names that sound slightly asian Atheist.

I think it probably needs to be pointed out that though their use of the data has been characterised in this way, it's not actually what they did with the data. They did a pretty comprehensive census analysis of the data in order to determine distribution, and they did an analysis of all surnames. The only ethnic group whose purchase volume significantly differed from their representation in census data were those of Chinese origin. More importantly, it highlighted Chinese surnames that are highly represented in sales but not in the resident and citizen Chinese population. This is a strong indicator of foreign investment.

Yes, as Labour have repeatedly acknowledged, it's an incredibly crude methodology and can only offer a very broad and tentative view of the market, but it was substantially more sophisticated than simply looking through a list of names and going "That sounds Asian".
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Old 19th July 2015, 06:43 PM   #344
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Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
I think it probably needs to be pointed out that though their use of the data has been characterised in this way, it's not actually what they did with the data. They did a pretty comprehensive census analysis of the data in order to determine distribution, and they did an analysis of all surnames. The only ethnic group whose purchase volume significantly differed from their representation in census data were those of Chinese origin. More importantly, it highlighted Chinese surnames that are highly represented in sales but not in the resident and citizen Chinese population. This is a strong indicator of foreign investment.

Yes, as Labour have repeatedly acknowledged, it's an incredibly crude methodology and can only offer a very broad and tentative view of the market, but it was substantially more sophisticated than simply looking through a list of names and going "That sounds Asian".
Then if they were so careful how come Twyford doesn't know how many asians live in Auckland?
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Old 19th July 2015, 09:59 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Then if they were so careful how come Twyford doesn't know how many asians live in Auckland?
He said it wasn't reasonable that 9% of Auckland's population were buying nearly 40% of houses. He was speaking about Chinese people, not Asian people. 9% of Auckland's population is Chinese.

An independent consultancy firm (Polity) did the analysis based on data analysis they'd already conducted using Census information, which could predict a person's ethnicity based on their name and area of residence with 95% accuracy.

They applied their processes to the house sale data. For example their analysis gave the surname "Lee" an ethnicity weighting as follows: European (0.481), Maori (0.027), Chinese (0.400), and Other (0.092). In other words, 40% of sales to people with the surname "Lee" were attributed to Chinese ethnicity, 48% to European ethnicity, and 3% to Maori.

This analysis was done for every surname on the list, not just "Asian sounding ones", and the only Ethnicity that was significantly over-represented in sales statistics was Chinese.

It's not racism, it's science. Incomplete science, certainly, but science is about making the best conclusion you can with the information available to you. That's what they did.
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Old 19th July 2015, 10:02 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
OK then. Lets talk facts

You do realise that Labour have got them completely wrong?

Twyford - "Asians make up 9% of Auckland's population"

Lies Twyford. Either that or you are an idiot.

Asians make up 23% of Auckland's population

They make up 9% of the whole of New Zealand

This is why I find it difficult to take anything Labour says seriously Atheist

He didn't say 9% of the Auckland population was Asian, he said 9% of the Auckland population was Chinese, which they are.
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Old 19th July 2015, 10:08 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
He didn't say 9% of the Auckland population was Asian, he said 9% of the Auckland population was Chinese, which they are.

I call pants. where are the stats
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Old 19th July 2015, 10:09 PM   #348
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Here's the transcript of the actual interview on TV3 in which Twyford released the data:

(My bolding)

Quote:
So this data is the comprehensive sales record from a major Auckland real estate firm. It includes about 4000 individual records. It’s every house sold in the Auckland region over that three-month period. What it shows, I think, is striking. Nearly 40% of the houses sold in that period went to people of Chinese descent, and as your introduction pointed out, the Chinese New Zealander population in Auckland, according to the most recent census data, is about 9%. Now, that is a remarkable discrepancy, and, in my view, it’s simply not plausible to suggest, as many have done in the last couple of years, that the Chinese— ethnic Chinese people who are buying houses in Auckland are all Chinese New Zealanders. It points, I think, to only one possible conclusion, and that is that offshore Chinese investors have a very significant presence in the Auckland real estate market when you consider that Auckland house prices are spiralling out of control at the moment. They went up on average by about $74,000 in the last three months.
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Old 19th July 2015, 10:09 PM   #349
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Why was Singh on there?
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

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Old 19th July 2015, 10:14 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I call pants. where are the stats
You can go look it up for yourself on the Statistics NZ Website or on the council's website. The exact figure from the 2013 census was 8.9% Chinese. The second largest Asian ethnic group is Indian, who represent 7.9% of the Auckland population.
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Old 19th July 2015, 10:15 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
Why was Singh on there?
Why is Singh on where?
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Old 19th July 2015, 10:21 PM   #352
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The preview item on the news showing the list had Singh on it
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Old 19th July 2015, 10:25 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
The preview item on the news showing the list had Singh on it

There were two ranked lists of surnames released from Labour's analysis. One was a rank of the most common surnames in Auckland, and the other was a rank of the most common surnames in the sales data.

Singh is the second most common surname in Auckland, and the 8th most common surname in the sales data.
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Old 19th July 2015, 10:34 PM   #354
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And not Chinese
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Old 19th July 2015, 11:19 PM   #355
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
And not Chinese
I don't know if there's any Chinese weighting for it, but if there is I suspect it's statistically insignificant. So what?
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Old 19th July 2015, 11:34 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by gumboot View Post
I don't know if there's any Chinese weighting for it, but if there is I suspect it's statistically insignificant. So what?
It just shows a how ridiculous their "Sounds a bit Chinese" data was

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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 20th July 2015, 12:01 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
It just shows a how ridiculous their "Sounds a bit Chinese" data was

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As I've pointed out, your representation of their analysis is incorrect. In any event, I don't follow. What is your issue with the name Singh?
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Old 20th July 2015, 12:29 AM   #358
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It isn't Chinese.

How did it fit their "vaguely sounds Chinese" criteria
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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Old 20th July 2015, 12:37 AM   #359
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Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
It isn't Chinese.
I know.


Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
How did it fit their "vaguely sounds Chinese" criteria
Huh? Who said it did?
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Old 20th July 2015, 01:05 AM   #360
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It is on their list
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I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
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