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Old 26th February 2019, 12:27 PM   #1
dudalb
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India launches Airstrikes on Pakistan..

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47375920

This could get very serious very fast.
US Media is not giving it much coverage because they are so wrapped up on domestic politics.
But it very easily could become a huge crisis.
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Old 26th February 2019, 12:41 PM   #2
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Pakistan needs to get a grip on the Islamic terrorists that operate, often unencumbered, within its borders. As usual, Islamic extremist militancy is the cause of yet more global unrest.
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Old 26th February 2019, 12:42 PM   #3
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I don't think it's all that easy for this to become a huge crisis.
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Old 26th February 2019, 12:46 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I don't think it's all that easy for this to become a huge crisis.
Wnen you have two countries with nukes who don;'t like each other anyway having a military clash, it is by definitation serious.
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Old 26th February 2019, 12:47 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Pakistan needs to get a grip on the Islamic terrorists that operate, often unencumbered, within its borders. As usual, Islamic extremist militancy is the cause of yet more global unrest.
And India needs to stop it's drive to makes Muslims second class citizens in India.
Both sides are at fault here.
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:00 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And India needs to stop it's drive to makes Muslims second class citizens in India.
Both sides are at fault here.
You don't need to be a Muslim to be a second - or third - class citizen in India. That said, Muslims get treated no worse in India than non-Muslims do in Pakistan, arguable far better.

Even if that were not the case, what has the status of Muslims in India got to do with Pakistan? It's none of their business, and certainly not grounds to enact terrorist attacks (there is never a valid reason for terrorism of any flavour).
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:05 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Wnen you have two countries with nukes who don;'t like each other anyway having a military clash, it is by definitation serious.
"Serious" is not synonymous with "huge crisis".

And my understanding is that neither country has their nukes in a "ready to go" configuration. I believe Pakistan in particular has physically separated their weapons components, and distributed command authority within their hierarchy. For them to assemble and deploy a nuclear weapon would be a fairly drawn-out process requiring buy-in from several different senior officials.

You also said, "[t]his could get very serious very fast." But this is the first cross-border airstrike from India into Pakistan since 1971. Even though Pakistan has issued many serious provocations since then. This seems like an extremely slow pace of development of the situation.

My bet is that the only reason India decided to launch this attack at this time is because they're reasonably confident that Pakistan won't escalate.
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:15 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
You don't need to be a Muslim to be a second - or third - class citizen in India. That said, Muslims get treated no worse in India than non-Muslims do in Pakistan, arguable far better.

Tell that to the Muslims being murdered by 'cow vigilantes' with police collusion.

Rakbar Khan: Did cow vigilantes lynch a Muslim farmer?
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Last edited by Garrison; 26th February 2019 at 01:17 PM.
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:21 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Tell that to the Muslims being murdered by 'cow vigilantes' with police collusion.

Rakbar Khan: Did cow vigilantes lynch a Muslim farmer?
Cows are holy animals in India. Best advice; don't go to India, disrespect their culture and break their laws and then you won't get targeted by the Bovine Boot Boys.
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:23 PM   #10
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This is not a good thing.
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:36 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Tell that to the Muslims being murdered by 'cow vigilantes' with police collusion.

Rakbar Khan: Did cow vigilantes lynch a Muslim farmer?
And that is the problem:You have two countries with nukes where it seems the religious fanatics are getting control.
I love the whole "But Muslims are not treated worse then other minorities argument.That might be true ...the Hindu fanatics don't like Sikhs or Christians any better...(not enough Jews in India for them to dislike) but that is a pretty damn poor defense.
I guess with some people religious persecution is fine..if the people being persecuted are Muslims.
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:39 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Cows are holy animals in India. Best advice; don't go to India, disrespect their culture and break their laws and then you won't get targeted by the Bovine Boot Boys.
So you think Muslims also have a right to kill you if you break their religious laws.......
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:44 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
This is not a good thing.
I dunno.

dudalb's thread title says "airstrikes on Pakistan", but it's not like India struck at Pakistani armed forces, or their national command and control infrastructure, or anything else close to the military or political apparatus. Their target were insurgent groups that even the Pakistani government denies responsibility for. It's a violation of Pakistani sovereignty, certainly. But taking out deniable paramilitary forces isn't necessarily a net negative even in this context.

In 1999, Pakistani troops crossed the border into India, resulting in heavy fighting between the actual armed forces of the two nations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War

And yet as we see, the situation did not become "very serious very fast". In fact, given the extent of Pakistan's sponsoring of anti-Indian insurgency over the years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%...s_and_disputes

It seems that this airstrike is both remarkably restrained and long overdue. Airstrikes against insurgencies seems to be widely regarded as a cromulent and effective remedy in Syria and elsewhere. I'm in need of more convincing that it's not a good thing here, all things considered.

This is a serious matter, but I am pushing back against dudalb's drift into "sky is falling" territory. I'm also pushing back against the idea that it's not a good thing to strike insurgents where they are found, even if it means occasionally violating Pakistani airspace.
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:47 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
So you think Muslims also have a right to kill you if you break their religious laws.......
I'm just pointing out that the best way to avoid such an eventuality is to not break the laws and disrespect the customs of the country in which you live, however ridiculous they may seem. This applies to people living in a Muslim country too. If you want to stay alive I recommend you don't, for example, go piss up the side of a Pakistani mosque whilst wearing a cartoon Mohammed t-shirt.
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Old 26th February 2019, 01:59 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
So you think Muslims also have a right to kill you if you break their religious laws.......
Exactly eat pork near a Muslim and you deserve to be executed.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:05 PM   #16
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There have been two terrible terror attacks last week by Jihadi freak gangs operating out of Pakistan: One in Iran and one in India, each with several dozen victims. Imran Khan has not been helpful in his statements basically insulting Modi after accepting a lot of money from Saudi Arabia. I don't think this will escalate very much but the meddling by the usual suspects is currently on a high level.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:06 PM   #17
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two nuclear powers in direct military conflict ...

what could go wrong?
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:08 PM   #18
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The best case scenario is a stable Cold War.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:08 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Even if that were not the case, what has the status of Muslims in India got to do with Pakistan? It's none of their business.
A statement thst ignores the partition of India in to two countries which is at the root of the problem.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:19 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
two nuclear powers in direct military conflict ...

what could go wrong?
Slow your roll there, Chicken Little. Let's start with what's likely to go wrong.

Can you answer that question, at least?
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:22 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
The best case scenario is a stable Cold War.
Which is what India and Pakistan currently have. It's not like this incident is some kind of Subcontinental Cuban Missile Crisis. Is there any reason to assume it's going to significantly disrupt the status quo?
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:29 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Which is what India and Pakistan currently have. It's not like this incident is some kind of Subcontinental Cuban Missile Crisis. Is there any reason to assume it's going to significantly disrupt the status quo?
I mean none of us having magic crystal balls that can see into the future and nothing is chiseled into stone but "Air strikes" are one of those things that tends to escalate rather then deescalate things.

Is the possibility that both sides have enough cool heads to back down from this? Yes, if fact I'd say more then possible it is likely, but it's not crazy to see this incident as worrying.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:31 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
A statement thst ignores the partition of India in to two countries which is at the root of the problem.
I think the hostility between Muslims and Hindus is at the heart of the problem;Partition was the result of that.
I think Partition was inevitable; The Muslim states would have seceded from India anyway. IMHO some kind of united India was never a realistic possibllity.
India was never really a single country until 1947 but a patchwork of states. Even the Mughal emperors never ruled all of it.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:33 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Slow your roll there, Chicken Little. Let's start with what's likely to go wrong.

Can you answer that question, at least?
This is a good example of something which, as an American, I am relentlessly critical of;The American tendacy to ignore or belittle foreign affairs until they turn around and bite us in the butt.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:34 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I mean none of us having magic crystal balls that can see into the future and nothing is chiseled into stone but "Air strikes" are one of those things that tends to escalate rather then deescalate things.
So is sponsoring terrorist insurgencies against your neighbors. But I don't see dudalb or anyone else banging the drum for the past 20 years about how Pakistan is on the verge of triggering some huge crisis.

I'm not going to be impressed if the next bit of apologetics is some hand-wringing about how India should just sit back and let the insurgents thrive, because actually fighting back "could get very serious very fast."

That argument is just useful idiocy in defense of Pakistan's aggression.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:35 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I mean none of us having magic crystal balls that can see into the future and nothing is chiseled into stone but "Air strikes" are one of those things that tends to escalate rather then deescalate things.

Is the possibility that both sides have enough cool heads to back down from this? Yes, if fact I'd say more then possible it is likely, but it's not crazy to see this incident as worrying.
And his statement that "Well, the airstrikes did not target Pakistani military bases, therefore it was not really an airstrike on Pakistan" was really asinine.
Best case: Pakistan retaliates;which seems inevitable.and then things calm down.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:36 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
This is a good example of something which, as an American, I am relentlessly critical of;The American tendacy to ignore or belittle foreign affairs until they turn around and bite us in the butt.
As opposed to the obnoxious American trait of trying to drum up Serious Concern about stuff that doesn't actually concern us? Other than you displaying your bunched panties to us, what's the purpose of this thread? Is there some recommendation you have? Should we all have our panties bunched as high up our cracks as you appear to? Should we be writing strongly worded letters to our Congressman? The Prime Minister of India? What's your point, dudalb?

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Old 26th February 2019, 02:40 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And his statement that "Well, the airstrikes did not target Pakistani military bases, therefore it was not really an airstrike on Pakistan" was really asinine.
Except that nobody made such a statement.

Quote:
Best case: Pakistan retaliates;which seems inevitable.and then things calm down.
Most likely case, even. Low-intensity conflicts have brief flare-ups from time to time. This doesn't mean they're on the verge of going full retard.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:48 PM   #29
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In 2011 - the USA invaded Pakistan to assassinate a criminal who was under indictment in the USA.
Seems to me that the US has set the precedence.
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Old 26th February 2019, 02:53 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by rockinkt View Post
In 2011 - the USA invaded Pakistan to assassinate a criminal who was under indictment in the USA.
Seems to me that the US has set the precedence.
Uh, that India and Pakistan have been fighting and having border clashes since 1947 seems to have passed you by.
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Old 26th February 2019, 03:06 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by rockinkt View Post
In 2011 - the USA invaded Pakistan to assassinate a criminal who was under indictment in the USA.
Seems to me that the US has set the precedence.
Two nuclear powers in direct military conflict-

Oh, wait. The US wasn't actually in direct military conflict with Pakistan.

Guess I need to revisit this:

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
two nuclear powers in direct military conflict ...

what could go wrong?
Pakistan has been very careful to avoid direct military conflict with India. So not much could go wrong, I think.

While I'm at it, let me also revisit:
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Best case: Pakistan retaliates;which seems inevitable.and then things calm down.
Once you acknowledge that Pakistan has been sponsoring terrorist insurgencies against India for years, you'll see that India's airstrike is the retaliation.
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Old 26th February 2019, 03:22 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Uh, that India and Pakistan have been fighting and having border clashes since 1947 seems to have passed you by.
Pakistan and India haven't been in direct military conflict since 1999.

Now, if India had launched airstrikes against actual Pakistani military, or against their command and control apparatus, I'd be very concerned. Especially if the strikes were followed by major Indian mobilization, or by moves of Pakistan to begin assembling a nuclear weapon, or something like that.

But this? Bombing a miserable pile of terrorists that happen to be camped just across the Pakistani border? Not really that worrisome. No more worrisome than the repeated incursions by such (Pakistani-sponsored) terrorists into India.

You don't run around starting threads about "Pakistan launches ground attacks on India" every time one of these terrorist groups does its thing. Why does this particular incident worry you so much? Weren't you already expecting that sooner or later India would do exactly this, and with good reason?
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Old 26th February 2019, 03:40 PM   #33
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Here's a relatively sober article on the events by Iranian state-sponsored FARS news agency. Relatively given that they were subject to such an attack at quite the same time as well, by a Jihadi freak gang calling itself "Army of Justice", while the one that has attacked India calls itself "Army of Mohammed".

Originally Posted by FARS
[...] The Indian foreign affairs chief stated that New Delhi was compelled to send jets to bomb jihadists in Pakistani territory because of its own “inaction” in tackling terrorists operating along the border.

“India has given proof many times seeking action against Jaish-e-Mohammad and others at terror camps so big, that they can train hundreds of jihadis and terrorists at any given time,” Gokhale said, adding that “due to Pakistan's inaction, this step was necessary and had to be taken”.

He claimed that the jets successfully destroyed the “biggest” JeM training camp near the city of Balakot in Pakistan’s Northeastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.

The government received “very credible intelligence info” that JeM was planning terrorist attacks in India, which made the airstrike “absolutely necessary”, Gokhale stated. [...]
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Old 26th February 2019, 05:23 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And that is the problem:You have two countries with nukes where it seems the religious fanatics are getting control.
I love the whole "But Muslims are not treated worse then other minorities argument.That might be true ...the Hindu fanatics don't like Sikhs or Christians any better...(not enough Jews in India for them to dislike) but that is a pretty damn poor defense.
Actually, Jews have been targeted in India. Mostly recently at Chabad House in Mumbai by Pakistan-based Islamic terrorists Lashkar-e-Taiba.

As for airstrikes ON Pakistan, would you argue that the US mission to kill Osama bin Laden was an attack ON Pakistan? I seem to remember some sarcasm about how if Pakistan though the operation was an attack on them it could only mean that they had some allegiance with Osama bin Laden. And when asked why the US didnít just co-ordinate the attack with Pakistan that it would be like entrusting their information with Jihadi intelligence.

Or are you displaying that unfortunate American trait of American exceptionalism?
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Old 26th February 2019, 05:58 PM   #35
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Has this thing become a huge crisis yet?

Because it's starting to look like India actually defused a potentially explosive situation.

It looks to me like Pakistan was preparing to attack India (yet again), and India cockblocked them. Now Pakistan will have to start preparing all over again.

If Pakistan were so hot to escalate versus India, they'd be starting trouble with their actual military, instead of relying on non state douchebags. They couldn't even provide air cover for these douchebags, but somehow were supposed to be worried that they're about to pop off for real?
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Old 26th February 2019, 07:30 PM   #36
a_unique_person
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Cows are holy animals in India. Best advice; don't go to India, disrespect their culture and break their laws and then you won't get targeted by the Bovine Boot Boys.
They live there.
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Old 26th February 2019, 09:49 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
They live there.
It's also the case that the vigilantes seem keen to claim that any Muslim in the vicinity of a cow was going to eat it, as opposed to being, you know, dairy farmers. Given that plenty of Hindu cuisine relies on dairy products, as well, this just seems like a useful excuse to kill Muslims.
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Old 26th February 2019, 10:34 PM   #38
arthwollipot
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Imran Khan to consult nuclear chiefs after India's first air strike on Pakistan in decades

Quote:
Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan will stage an emergency parliamentary session and meet with the body in control of Islamabad's nuclear arsenal in response to India's first air strikes on Pakistan since 1971.
Yeah, it's becoming a thing.
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Old 27th February 2019, 12:03 AM   #39
arthwollipot
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Pakistan shoots down two Indian jets in Kashmir after air strikes

Quote:
A day after Indian warplanes struck inside Pakistan for the first time since the 1971 war, a spokesman for the Pakistan armed forces has confirmed Pakistan has shot down two Indian jets in Kashmir.

Tensions have been elevated since a suicide car bombing by Pakistan-based militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir killed at least 40 Indian paramilitary police on February 14, but the risk of conflict rose dramatically on Tuesday when India launched an air strike on what it said was a militant training base.

Indian air force planes strayed into Pakistani airspace on Wednesday after Pakistan had carried out air strikes in Indian-occupied Kashmir, said Major General Asif Ghafoor, a spokesman for the Pakistan armed forces.

"PAF shot down two Indian aircraft inside Pakistani airspace," he said in a tweet.

One of the aircraft fell on India's side of Kashmir, while the second came down in Pakistani-held territory and its pilot was captured, he added.

A spokesman for India's defence ministry was not immediately available for comment.
It's getting serious.
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Old 27th February 2019, 12:18 AM   #40
angrysoba
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Some reports say a Pakistani jet may also have been shot down.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e_iOSApp_Other
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