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8th August 2017, 12:53 PM | #281 |
Illuminator
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I do not care about any proof or non-proof of a some sort of gift. I am not trying to start a religion with followers. I wish to remain anonymous. I am under the impression I got some information. I acknowledge I could be wrong, but a number of my past experiences tend to support my being right. What I find interesting is the reaction of disbelievers to such a prediction. Firstly there is the denial that it WILL happen. Secondly there is denial that such information may have had a supernatural origin. Assuming a supernatural origin, what would be the purpose of me getting such information? |
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8th August 2017, 01:07 PM | #282 |
Penultimate Amazing
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But you brag anonymously about it in public. In case you can convince someone you're a prophet, you get a vicarious thrill. Praise to the anonymous is still praise, because you can know it was directed at you. But when you fail -- as all prophets inevitably do -- you can walk away with clean hands, knowing that none of the people whose adulation you craved will be able to follow you and properly mock you. Hence you don't really make a good case for altruistic motives. It still comes off looking like you're fishing for adulation.
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8th August 2017, 01:37 PM | #283 |
Schrödinger's cat
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But the only way to discover if you're right or wrong is to specify what counts as a hit in enough detail that the probability of something happening that fits it is very low. If there are millions of things that could happen about which you could say, once they've occurred, "that must be what the prediction meant" then, even if the probability of each individual one happening is low, the probability of one of them happening is high enough for the apparent hit to be coincidence.
It's the difference between a prediction like "there will be a major earthquake next year" and "there will be an earthquake registering at least 9 on the Richter scale in South America in October". The first one is almost bound to come true so no-one is going to be impressed if it does, the second would be a genuinely impressive prediction. |
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8th August 2017, 04:49 PM | #284 |
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I don't care what you do to the women and children, leave me alone! |
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8th August 2017, 05:11 PM | #285 |
Penultimate Amazing
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8th August 2017, 11:15 PM | #286 |
Illuminator
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Coming to this site for praise? Surely you jest. This site is all about mockery. Part of the reason I post on this site is for the occasional rational feedback that might challenge some of my thoughts. Another reason it is a bit like a reactive diary. I record happenings in my life. There might be some who are entertained and amused. As for being an amateur psychologist, don't give up your day job. Although given the strange rationale of some psychologists you might just be one. Hmm. I think I enjoy the mental challenge of debate - and winding you guys up - you just might be wrong about your beliefs. |
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8th August 2017, 11:24 PM | #287 |
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Actually no. I am enjoying my life very much at the moment. Aside from some aches and pains, I have everything to live for. But there are people who do hope that it would happen in order to "clean up" the planet. You guys do realize that being an atheist in such times is a decided disadvantage? The hysterical mobs will likely look to gain favor by "helping" their God/gods. Here is some feedback you could give me. If you see people dying all around you, would you change you mind and say perhaps PartSkeptic did get a message. Perhaps the other information he was given might also be correct. My intuition tells me the answer is NO. Heck, it will not even make me certain there is a God. |
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8th August 2017, 11:26 PM | #288 |
Illuminator
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8th August 2017, 11:37 PM | #289 |
Schrödinger's cat
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If I see a major pandemic affecting people all over the world by the end of the year I would certainly count this particular prediction as a hit. If I see, for example, a new strain of influenza emerge that has a higher mortality rate than usual I would not count it as a hit. Would you?
This is why we need to agree in advance what is going to count as a hit and what is not. If you don't like my criteria for what would count as a "major, global health problem" then by all means suggest your own. But bear in mind that specifying such criteria is as much for your benefit as ours. If we don't agree criteria upfront then we will be indeed be free to dismiss whatever you think clearly counts as a hit as a miss because it's insufficiently 'major' or insufficiently 'global'. |
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9th August 2017, 04:02 AM | #290 |
Illuminator
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For what is worth, I expect that the CDC will make statements of major concern, and be taking serious measures. And that it will be a major story. I do not care about a "hit" or a "miss". I could quite easily be wrong about a pandemic this year or even next. What I am not wrong about is that man is destroying the planet and is unable to do anything to stop it. If there is a God who intervenes, then I would think that now would be an appropriate time. Being replaced by artificial intelligence is not a solution. I doubt they will be versatile enough to survive for long, or even wish to. |
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9th August 2017, 04:05 AM | #291 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Who is General Failure? And why is he reading my hard drive? ...love and buttercakes... |
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9th August 2017, 04:20 AM | #292 |
Schrödinger's cat
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Again, 'major' is a subjective term. To be worth anything at all a prediction needs to be specific enough that everyone can agree whether or not whatever actually transpires is a hit or not. This was always insisted on in Randi's MDC: success or failure could not be a judgement call, it must be self evident.
If you're not going to cooperate in producing meaningful success criteria I will simply tell you what I intend to use. I also haven't yet told you what percentage hit rate for your total list of predictions I will consider sufficient to grant the possibility that you were given information by supernatural means. Unfortunately there is no suitable mundane baseline to compare it to, so that will need to be a judgement call on my part. I'll give it some thought. |
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9th August 2017, 04:42 AM | #293 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Ahh, you're one of those religious types, the ones who care more about parading their bloated pride around than in evangelism or living a life guided by God and faith. You're here to thank God in the public square that you aren't like the tax collector next to you. Theologically you're essentially the exact opposite of men like Fred Rogers. https://www.biblegateway.com/passage...14&version=RSV
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9th August 2017, 04:50 AM | #294 |
Penultimate Amazing
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What's that even mean? You're a sadist gleefully anticipating the deaths of billions in the hope someone thinks you were "right" about your vague, wishy-washy "prediction." If you don't want to be called out on it then don't come here and make pompous proclamations without any evidence to back them up. I find it particularly hilarious that you have the hubris to make a prediction but are too cowardly and devoid of faith to make a specific one. You hedge your bets too much to actually have the gift of prophesy. |
9th August 2017, 06:21 AM | #295 |
Schrödinger's cat
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OK, I've updated PS's list of predictions with what I think are reasonable success criteria for those that are still pending. Comments/suggestions welcome.
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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9th August 2017, 06:37 AM | #296 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Realistically the "prediction" that Trump would win the nomination, presidency and be sworn in isn't much by way of prophesy anyhow. Hillary ran her presidential campaign the same way Elizabeth Warren ran her initial failed bid for the Massachusetts Senate. My cynicism about American Politics reached the same conclusion as PartSkeptic's attempt at prophesy. If he's a prophet then so am I.
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9th August 2017, 06:55 AM | #297 |
Schrödinger's cat
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The point where the hit rate exceeds the level that can reasonably be explained by intelligent guesswork is exactly the point I'm groping for a way to calculate. I certainly agree that PartSkeptic has not reached it yet, with only 3 out of 4 not particularly impressive predictions made and hit.
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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9th August 2017, 07:00 AM | #298 |
Penultimate Amazing
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"The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about." --Oscar Wilde.
This site is about testing claims -- especially extraordinary claims. You're making extraordinary claims. They do not stand up to testing. Mockery inevitably follows a continuation of the claim.
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9th August 2017, 07:05 AM | #299 |
Penultimate Amazing
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9th August 2017, 07:13 AM | #300 |
Illuminator
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Full of emotive derisive words. Must have have you worried. In particular, I am anything but cowardly. Typical name calling - the phrase "cowardly terrorists" is getting so over-used. Trying to provoke me into a mudslinging match. Your territory - I get dirty and you enjoy it? |
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9th August 2017, 07:41 AM | #301 |
Illuminator
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Not a claim. I am providing you guys with information. Take it or leave it. Something further to think about.
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From my experience, and the reading I have done, a number of systemic fungal infections do not cause death directly - they cause organ failures, and often the underlying cause (the fungus) is not blamed. This one seems easier to test for than some so it may it be a question of which strain gets us first. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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9th August 2017, 08:01 AM | #302 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yes, a claim.
This is one of several instances in which you have claimed some sort of special clairvoyance.
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9th August 2017, 08:03 AM | #303 |
Penultimate Amazing
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9th August 2017, 08:20 AM | #304 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Ahh, my little Pharisee. I'm afraid what you're interpreting as being "scared" is in fact residual contempt taught by my Lutheran upbringing. You see, I was raised to see religion as something you live, not something you use to gloat about. I was raised to see people who act the way you are as a prideful hypocrites who bring shame to the Body of Christ. Since I still respect people who live their faith instead of mounting it like a pedestal as you do, I also feel some embarrassment on their behalf for having a preening Pharisee such as yourself attacking them by associating your behavior with their faith.
I never called you a terrorist, just a coward, a criticism that will remain accurate until such time as you add some specifics to your alleged predictions. From a religious point of view, the vague nature of your predictions shows a distinct lack of faith and courage. If you had actual faith in any of this "information," you would offer specifics. Calling a newspaper horoscope prophet like yourself a coward is something else that stems from my religious education. Pretending my criticism is part of something trendy may help you conceal your yellow stripes from your own eyes, but it does nothing to hide them from the rest of us. Don't be silly. I'm not trying to provoke you. You're a Pharisee. I will use you as Christ used your kind in his day, as an example of how NOT to conduct ones faith. I hold no illusions about you ever "seeing the light" and learning humility. You have too much of your identity wrapped up in preening and pretense over your religion. You've even gone so far as to offer Newspaper Horoscope grade "predictions" and then act like there's something wrong with us for not taking your word for it! You are an amusing one my little Pharisee. |
9th August 2017, 08:20 AM | #305 |
Penultimate Amazing
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And why not? Didn't you just say
Now how are people supposed to challenge you if they don't get to apply standards that they themselves came up with? Clearly you're already justified by your own standards, so those will never serve to challenge you. Seems like the only rational feedback that has the power to challenge you will need to come according to standards you don't set. I live a short walk from the Mormon version of Isengard, where at the top of which a doddering gaggle of octogenarian wizards maintain their grip on millions of people according to their claim to be prophets of God. Your claims don't differ much from theirs, except that they've managed to make a living out of it. They have no more evidence of their claims than you do of yours, but they're snappy dressers so people seem to take heed. Recently these wizards underscored a hard-line stance against same-sex marriage and LGBT issues. When the people tried to lay at their feet the alarming rate and rise in LGBT youth suicide -- one of Utah's dirty little secrets -- they just shrugged their shoulders and did nothing. The moral is that I have yet to see anyone who claims to be a prophet who isn't in it to try to exert some sort of control over others, who isn't in it for themselves alone. What was that you were telling us about telling fortunes for people? So when I see you capitalizing on others' pain and suffering for your own aggrandizement, with nary a morsel of pity for those in their predicament, then yes, I think I will judge you according to my standards. My standards are good and useful, and call you to account for your claims. The whole end-times phenomena among charismatic Christians is little more than gloating over the supposedly inevitable horrible deaths of their enemies. Looking forward to that, in my mind, is sick and wrong. And in more precise terms, yes I think a statistically valid test of your claimed ability is appropriate. You want to be seen as a prophet? Make a claim ahead of time with sufficient specificity that we can conclude from a statistical standpoint that the odds of you guessing it right purely by chance are negligible. Can you do that? Will you do that? No, you will not. You continue to seek the attention that would befit a prophet without being willing to put up. So when you invoke tragedies to suit that posturing agenda, people will rationally wonder to what level of sociopathy you're willing to stoop to keep making it all about you. Have I challenged any of your thinking? |
9th August 2017, 08:22 AM | #306 |
Penultimate Amazing
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9th August 2017, 08:29 AM | #307 |
Penultimate Amazing
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9th August 2017, 08:44 AM | #308 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Indeed, if he's claiming to be a prophet of God according to the Bible, that ship already sailed. But if he's merely claiming to be somehow clairvoyant according to a different standard, then I'm willing to relax the criteria and ask only for a statistically significant ability to predict the future. But then again, if he's not claiming to be a prophet of God, then why are we having this discussion in the thread about the Christian end-times, and talking about fungus pandemics that he supposedly predicted?
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9th August 2017, 11:20 PM | #309 |
Illuminator
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Good question. IF I was given some information (from God rather than my imagination) what is the purpose? Does a die-off of about 60% of the global population qualify as an "end-time" event"? I have a conflict of interest. 1. If there is a die-off, I suffer (or die) just as any-one else. I do not consider myself as getting special status. 2. If there is no die-off, how is the human race going to be saved from self-extinction? As for suffering/dying on a massive scale there are some considerations. We all die sometime. IF we have souls, then death is not a big deal. If we do not have souls, then we are just machines, and ethical considerations seem to be irrelevant. One thing about this fungus (and others, including future mutations) is that it attacks people who are not healthy or do not have good immune systems. For example, histoplasmosis typically infects terminally ill AID patients. Survival of the fittest would be what nature wants - yes? There are over 1.5 million types of fungus. About 0.8 million have been identified. They are mutating faster than we can identify them. Global warming will speed up the rate of mutation. |
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9th August 2017, 11:31 PM | #310 |
Illuminator
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Who made that rule?
Assuming that Noah was right (even if it may have been a local event) what happened to those who ignored the warning and did not build their own boats? If someone was consistent at 55% (given the spread or odds) on predicting the outcomes of sporting events, would you not bet on such predictions? You will win more than you lose. |
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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10th August 2017, 12:31 AM | #311 |
Schrödinger's cat
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According to the Bible? God.
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What happened to the billions of people who ignored the hundreds of actual warnings of the imminent end of the world in the last couple of millennia, however, is that they saved time, money, and in some cases (by refusing to literally drink the Kool Aid) their lives.
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10th August 2017, 04:56 AM | #312 |
Illuminator
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**Agnostic theist. God/Satan/Angels/Demons may not exist - but I choose to think the probability is that they do. By personal experience.** |
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10th August 2017, 05:06 AM | #313 |
Penultimate Amazing
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10th August 2017, 05:11 AM | #314 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I submit that the first three don't meet the criteria of a supernatural prediction. Trump elected is a binary choice. The two follow-on predictions are, historically speaking, nearly foregone conclusions. We generally assume that the elected president will take office. It skews the hit rate if we include predictions that are things that almost always happen.
ETA: I also take issue with "global health problems". There are always global health problems. Zika is a global health problem. HIV is a global health problem. Heart Disease is a global health problem. If there weren't always global health problems, we wouldn't have a World Health Organization or Center for Disease Control. |
10th August 2017, 05:47 AM | #315 |
Thinker
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No!
Nature doesn't want anything nor does nature provide a mechanism designed to produce change. "Survival of the fittest" is a single minded shorthand term for the highly complicated and nuanced scientific theory of evolution. And even as well developed of a theory as evolution is not the same as the aspects of nature it describes. Your posts suggest you hold the common misunderstanding that evolution is somehow guided and that individual incidents can be loosely attributed to this guidance. This misunderstanding is merely the imposition of your moralistic approach onto nature. |
10th August 2017, 06:05 AM | #316 |
Schrödinger's cat
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Apparently it is a requirement for God. For anyone who understands statistics, a hit rate significantly better than would be expected by chance is what's required.
The problem with predictions for events other than those which are truly random (e.g. tossing a fair coin) is establishing what that expected chance success rate is. Craig4's objections in this regard where your own list of predictions is concerned are valid.
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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10th August 2017, 06:19 AM | #317 |
Penultimate Amazing
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The Jews, a few THOUSAND years before Jesus was even born. There's this thing Christians call "The Bible" that lays out a number of rules about it. For example, Prophets keep their eyes open and don't breathe during a vision:
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The Bible reinforces the point about 100% accuracy:
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http://christianchat.com/bible-discu...s-prophet.html When you digest that layman's forum, we can move on to some more theologically complex material. It would seem comparing you to the pharisees was in fact a compliment, as the pharisees at least had a decent understanding of scripture. Your Biblical illiteracy also rules out comparisons to the Sadducees. I'll have to mull that over. Do you REALLY want to get into all the infants, toddlers and tweens God brutally murdered and literally fed to the fishes because he didn't like what their parents did religiously? Are you seriously comparing prophesy to gambling? You're not a prophet. you don't get to declare yourself a prophet if you somehow manage a slightly-better-than-average "hit" rate on Newspaper Horoscope grade "predictions." |
10th August 2017, 06:21 AM | #318 |
Penultimate Amazing
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10th August 2017, 09:29 AM | #319 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I don't believe in God, so asking me to speculate "in-universe" is rather a tangent. If you believe in God and are claiming to be his prophet, then make up whatever reason you want. However, since below we point out that Judeo-Christian scripture proposes a test for candidate prophets, it stands to reason that not all who claim to be prophets really are. Else why have the test? So given that not all who claim to be prophets really will be, what can be said about their purpose?
As I said, my impression is that people almost always claim to receive messages from God in order to raise their status among their peers, either to get attention or to exert control. They exploit on the credulity of people around them for their own purposes. Since you are posting at a skeptical forum, it seems prudent for to accept that the null hypothesis held by your audience is that you're some sort of huckster getting some sort of jolly over pretending to be some sort of prophet. It's up to you to provide evidence that would falsify that hypothesis.
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Second, Christians since the dawn of the religion have been anticipating the end times and interpreting various cataclysms as end-time precursors. Clearly they were wrong, as the world did not end with or after them. Given that abominable track record, what do you think the chances are of the pandemic du jour being an end-time event?
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It's in the Bible. You have the references.
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This is why we aim to put you to the test and see whether your claimed predictions can display the significance. You don't seem to be interested, which leads us to believe your confidence in your ability is limited merely to seeing who will believe your claim, rather than whether your claim is supported by evidence. If someone approached you about parimutuel betting on a sports event, promising that he is able to predict winners at a rate better than others, but refused to share information with you how about many times he was right and how many times he was wrong, or conversely how much money he has made by predicting winners unexpectedly, would you put your money in his hands? If you're claiming to be a prophet in the mode of Judaism or Christianity, then I think we're quite justified in holding you to the explicit direction of the Torah on that point. Would-be prophets trying to sneak out of that by showing examples of other prophets who have in some way or another fallen from grace. But the passage halleyscomet quoted is the premier instruction. It's the explicit directive when faced with someone claiming to be a prophet from God. If you're only claiming to be psychic, then you should probably move the discussion to the general paranormal forum. And yes, you wouldn't necessarily be expected to attain 100% accuracy in order to support a claim in that case.
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10th August 2017, 10:28 AM | #320 |
Penultimate Amazing
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A visual representation of PartSkeptic excreting a prophesy:
On a related note, here are some of the perfectly natural, non-divine catastrophes likely to strike the earth within the next few decades: 7 Huge Apocalypses (That Might Happen In Your Lifetime) The article has several advantages over PartSkeptic and Paul Bethke: 1. There's some actual data to back up the claims. 2. The claims are quite specific. 3. No divine intervention needed. 4. No ambiguity about if the article scores a "hit" or not. Of course, there will be some scumbag pocket prophet who proclaims any one of these disasters as "judgement from God" for wherever issues has a bee in their bloomers, and they'll have followers who gobble it up, swallowing every drip and squirt of nonsense. S Peter Davis won't get the credit they deserve, the glory will be stolen by Johnny-come-lately televangelists and other parasites. |
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