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Old Today, 04:01 AM   #2121
rjh01
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And you can add in Mexico, Indonesia & Malaysia as places where the numbers are going in a dangerous direction.

Looks to me like it's developing nations about to take off. That will not be funny.
This does worry me. Certain countries might get rid of every case in their own countries, then allow international travel. People come from these developing nations where it is still common and bring it back. You would need to quarantine everyone doing so and not in their own homes. I mean in quarantine stations where they cannot infect other people. This would kill off the international tourist industry.
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Old Today, 05:11 AM   #2122
TellyKNeasuss
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According to a bulletin in the Washington Post, a recent study by the University of Bonn of people in the Heinsberg district of Germany found that 14 percent had anti-bodies against SARS-COV-2, 2 percent were currently infected, and 0.37 percent had died from covid-19. It described the Heinsberg district as being "hard-hit".
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Old Today, 05:15 AM   #2123
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
According to a bulletin in the Washington Post, a recent study by the University of Bonn of people in the Heinsberg region of Germany found that 14 percent had anti-bodies against SARS-COV-2, 2 percent were currently infected, and 0.37 percent had died from covid-19. It described the Heinsberg region as being "hard-hit".
Link ?

14% with antibodies would be great. But 0.37% dead ? How, the study was supposed to be on 1000 people. You can't get 0.37% from that. And such number would be in way too high.

Last edited by Dr.Sid; Today at 05:17 AM.
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Old Today, 05:17 AM   #2124
TellyKNeasuss
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Link ?
The link is

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...JPBJQTVLVHCZ4E

but this is a dynamic list of bulletins, so I don't know how long the story will be easy to find there.
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Old Today, 05:33 AM   #2125
Dr.Sid
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The link is

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...JPBJQTVLVHCZ4E

but this is a dynamic list of bulletins, so I don't know how long the story will be easy to find there.
Ah, it's CFR, I should have realized .. that's quite good then.
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Old Today, 05:36 AM   #2126
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Link ?

14% with antibodies would be great. But 0.37% dead ? How, the study was supposed to be on 1000 people. You can't get 0.37% from that. And such number would be in way too high.
I found this

Quote:
Background: The municipality of Gangelt is one of the places in Germany most affected by COVID19 . It is assumed that the infection is due to a carnival session on 15 February 2020, as several people tested positive for SARSCoV2 in the aftermath of this session. The carnival session and the outbreak of the session are currently being investigated in more detail. A representative sample was taken from the community Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) in the Heinsberg district. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol in which, depending on the expected prevalence, 100 to 300 households are randomly examined. This random sample was coordinated with Prof. Manfred Güllner (Forsa) to ensure its representativeness.

Aim: The aim of the study is to determine the status of SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected persons) in the community of Gangelt, which have been and are still occurring. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2 immunity shall be determined.

Procedure: A serial letter was sent to about 600 households. In total, about 1000 inhabitants from about 400 households took part in the study. Questionnaires were collected, throat swabs taken and blood tested for the presence of antibodies (IgG, IgA). The interim results and conclusions of approx. 500 persons are included in this first evaluation.

Preliminary result: An existing immunity of approx. 14% (antiSARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined. About 2% of the persons had a current SARS-CoV-2 infection detected by PCR method. The infection rate (current infection or already been through) was about 15 % in total. The case fatality rate in relation to the total number of infected persons in the community of Gangelt is approx. 0.37 % with the preliminary data from this study. The lethality rate currently calculated in Germany by Johns-Hopkins University is 1.98 %, which is 5 times higher. The mortality in relation to the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.15 %.

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Old Today, 06:36 AM   #2127
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The Sweden experiment is not working
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...emic_in_Sweden
about 800 dead. Norway and Finland next door, each with half the Swedish population, have 105 and 42 dead. Double those to compare to the 800.

The Finland case is understandable in that you have to fly or drive there to bring more virus, and the Russian border is closed except trucks maybe, using Finnish ports to unload ships. You don't go through Finland to get anywhere, same with Norway.
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Old Today, 07:02 AM   #2128
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The wikipedia page for the Heinsberg story is here, try autotranslate:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...reis_Heinsberg

The preliminary results of the study have just been released this morning. What Planigale posted seems to be a translation of page one of two pages of the report. Can't find an English version atm.
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Old Today, 07:22 AM   #2129
TellyKNeasuss
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Two studies of people who were infected in New York found that the majority of infections could be traced to people bringing SARS-COV-2 to the US from Europe.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...e-studies-show
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Old Today, 07:38 AM   #2130
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
That link is way off, though. Projected deaths per day for yesterday was 1,433. In reality it was 938. So the projected figure is an overestimation of about 50%.

Total deaths isn't off by as much, but it's saying 8,867, whereas the real figure was 7,097. So still an overestimation by close to 30%.

If the model can't predict the present with a reasonable degree of accuracy, I don't think we should put too much stock in how well it can predict 4 months in the future.
Good point. They aren't, in fact, current daily updates. Especially the EU ones which appear to be the same as the initial expansion into the EU. The American model is getting more attention but still isn't updated daily though it frequently is.

Also, they have changed their model for the USA as more data comes in from the EU. Details in their update notes. The general shift is towards somewhat earlier peaking with concomitant decrease in overall deaths.

For any given place one can see where the model shifts from actuals to predicted by mousing over the death curve line.
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Old Today, 07:41 AM   #2131
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
Two studies of people who were infected in New York found that the majority of infections could be traced to people bringing SARS-COV-2 to the US from Europe.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...e-studies-show
This has seemed likely the case for a while. Especially as international flights and commerce from the EU countries continued long after most were shut down from China and especially Wuhan. Good to see verification from a genetic study.
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Old Today, 08:38 AM   #2132
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Originally Posted by JesseCuster View Post
https://i.ibb.co/9TzTggr/Screenshot-...t-11-39-17.png

Here's a linear graph of reported weekly and total deaths for a handful of countries, for what it's worth.
Worth? Not much. USA has howm many times the population of eachof tose ther countries? So duh, ...
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Old Today, 08:39 AM   #2133
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
This does worry me. Certain countries might get rid of every case in their own countries, then allow international travel. People come from these developing nations where it is still common and bring it back. You would need to quarantine everyone doing so and not in their own homes. I mean in quarantine stations where they cannot infect other people. This would kill off the international tourist industry.

This is one area that I think will take a long time to ever get back to what it was, international travel. I can see countries requiring very strict conditions before you are allowed to fly, perhaps proof of antibodies, a current test and so on.
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Old Today, 08:54 AM   #2134
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There may be a significant "native immunity", either genetic variation in receptor or previous exposure to corona virus 'colds', which may be as high as 92%*. Add in the immunity gained from exposure too the current pandemic, and aren't we nearing "herd immunity level" now?

*90% of the occupants of the Diamoind Princess had negative swab tests. Washington state swabbed 11,000 people with symptoms, whose Dr's referred them as possibles, 92% were negative.

Next debacle will be whether we have obtained herd immunity, or whether we need to continue current precautions. The politocs will want to "keep them scared so they vote for us to lead them to safety". The scientists are part of the Medico-Industrio Complex. I predict Herd immunity be damned, we are ****** until a vax comes out. Over a death rate of .004%. No, I didn't skip any decimals, 4 per 100,000. We'll be stoning people for not wearing masks.
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Old Today, 09:01 AM   #2135
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And you can add in Mexico, Indonesia & Malaysia as places where the numbers are going in a dangerous direction.

Looks to me like it's developing nations about to take off. That will not be funny.
It is finally starting to hit us here in Guatemala. We have only tested something like 7000 people. Last week we had 2 cases, now we have about 90. With the lack of health care and the federal infrastructure to help us out here in the mountains, this is going to be bad. Our town has locked down. No ins or outs AT ALL, masks are mandatory, and we have a 4 pm curfew. No parties, no Easter services, no nada.

Our President did a good job, I think, but he can't overcome the inherent problems in the country that have never been really addressed. I'll try to update as much as possible if it gets bad down here!
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Old Today, 09:11 AM   #2136
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Worth? Not much. USA has howm many times the population of eachof tose ther countries? So duh, ...
It was the shape of the curves that I thought might have been of interest, not the absolute numbers.
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