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6th July 2020, 10:34 AM | #641 |
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6th July 2020, 01:20 PM | #642 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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6th July 2020, 01:24 PM | #643 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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6th July 2020, 03:50 PM | #644 |
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A valid point. However, bitcoin and cryptocurrency seem at least slightly closer to tulip bulbs than a traditional currency right now. It may be more accurate for me to say that it can't be compared with anything- including traditional currency or speculative investments. My thoughts on this aren't inflexible. You're the only poster in this thread who has accurately predicted the movement of bitcoin by saying 'we don't know.' You've been right 100% of the time and I unironically respect that.
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6th July 2020, 03:53 PM | #645 |
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I have a problem with the world 'simulator'. Simulation is something different than reality. BTC is just as real investment as tulip bulb. You invest real money. You win / lose real money.
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7th July 2020, 05:43 AM | #646 |
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There is a game aspect to bitcoin. Every mining computer is repeatedly guessing the "nonce" of the next block. The first computer to correctly guess the nonce "wins" the block.
Your problem is that you conflated this purely technical aspect of bitcoin with the speculative aspect of buying and selling the stuff. In this aspect, bitcoin is no different to any other speculative instrument. Yes, a fiat currency backed by a "responsible" government is usually more reliable than bitcoin. Currency traders may even "hodl" some of the more stable international currencies. |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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7th July 2020, 05:43 AM | #647 |
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7th July 2020, 05:46 AM | #648 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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7th July 2020, 06:05 AM | #649 |
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People use grain, speculators estimate whether that usage is going to go up or down and make their “bets” accordingly. This serves to help stabilize prices and protects producers from wide swings in price between planting and harvest. Currency speculators estimate supply and demand for money on international markets which helps smooth over international trade. Speculators in the stock and bond market look for over valued and undervalued
Buying bitcoin is nothing like either of these, so the statement that “it’s just like any other speculative instrument” is false. Other speculative instruments serve economic functions and have an underlying reason why speculators think the price will go up/down. |
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7th July 2020, 06:11 AM | #650 |
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7th July 2020, 07:19 AM | #651 |
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7th July 2020, 08:31 AM | #652 |
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IMO speculating on bit coin lacks the immediate endorphin rush and immediate gratification of placing a bet in a casino, so it’s not going to have the same type of appeal.
When bubbles are forming you do get something akin to this as people go back to check the price and see that it's gone up. When the bubble is bursting you get the opposite effect which usually drives the asset below fair value. The problem with bitcoin is that there base value for it to gravitate to because it has no underlying utility. |
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7th July 2020, 09:45 AM | #653 |
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7th July 2020, 10:07 AM | #654 |
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7th July 2020, 10:26 AM | #655 |
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Easy Belz, of course he meant me, so it's ok
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7th July 2020, 10:55 AM | #656 |
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7th July 2020, 12:08 PM | #657 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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7th July 2020, 12:10 PM | #658 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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7th July 2020, 12:25 PM | #659 |
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9th July 2020, 02:49 PM | #660 |
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A financial bubble is a significant increase in the price of an asset that does not reflect an increase in its true value. Bubbles are often based on a belief that the asset's price will continue to rise. People pay more because they expect to sell for more. This conviction pushes up prices even more
The definition seems to fit regardless of how long the bubble lasts. |
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9th July 2020, 03:19 PM | #661 |
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9th July 2020, 03:22 PM | #662 |
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9th July 2020, 10:46 PM | #663 |
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With bitcoin correlating nicely with Wall Street and a top nicely in place there we can expect a bear market.
Rat poison. |
10th July 2020, 12:28 AM | #664 |
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With a definition that vague, every stock in the stock market could be considered to be in a bubble. You never know when an individual stock will crash - even if it takes centuries.
You can try to argue that stocks are different because companies make things but the "inherent" value of most publicly traded companies is little more than that put into it by the stock holders (just like bitcoin). The rest is all balanced out by debts and companies walk a fine line between making enough profit to service those debts / pay dividends and going broke. |
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10th July 2020, 10:24 AM | #665 |
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13th July 2020, 05:35 AM | #666 |
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When something has utility, market value will have an underlying attractor that can be used to estimate future market value. Eg For a stock you can estimate all the money the company will earn in the future and convent that into the equivalent value in present day money. For a commodity like copper, you can estimate future production and future demand.
You can’t do this with something like bitcoin where demand is almost entirely other speculators, and at some point speculators will either get bored or frustrated at having bigger players manipulating the price and move on to something where there are long term supply/demand trends driving up the value. |
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13th July 2020, 04:10 PM | #667 |
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This is just made-up nonsense. Speculators drive the price of any brokered commodity to the extent that the price bears little relation to its "utility" value.
In any case bitcoin has utility. It can't be counterfeited and it can be transferred across the globe within minutes unhindered by man or machine. So bitcoin speculators aren't going to get "bored" and shoot themselves in the foot by dumping their holdings. |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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13th July 2020, 10:37 PM | #668 |
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No, it isn't nonsense. If Bitcoin is a commodity then the price should ultimately be set by what the end consumer is willing to pay.
But Bitcoin isn't a commodity in any real sense. It isn't consumed, either directly or by being incorporated into a product. Almost every person who buys Bitcoin expects to sell it again, hopefully for a higher price. So it is really just a vehicle for speculation. Its main 'value' is the warm fuzzy feeling it gives libertarians who HODL it because they think fiat currencies are doomed. But they are a minority of bitcoiners. Most are speculators who are playing the market, hoping to cash in on the next bubble before it collapses. So the actual 'commodity' isn't Bitcoin, it's the addle-headed minds of libertarians.
Quote:
Bitcoin speculators will get bored once they stop being able to make easy money out of it, and/or find something else more profitable. If the HODLers get bored or spooked into selling then the price will collapse and investors will see that it is indeed 'rat poison'. But hey, even rat poison can be a vehicle for speculation. You just have to convince enough people that it's worth buying (even if they have no practical use for it). I heard from a reliable source that rat poison is an effective treatment for Covid-19... |
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14th July 2020, 01:27 AM | #669 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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14th July 2020, 02:08 AM | #670 |
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14th July 2020, 06:40 AM | #671 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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14th July 2020, 06:47 AM | #672 |
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14th July 2020, 10:08 AM | #673 |
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"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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14th July 2020, 10:22 AM | #674 |
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14th July 2020, 11:08 AM | #675 |
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14th July 2020, 11:08 AM | #676 |
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Make it happen.
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14th July 2020, 11:44 AM | #677 |
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I'd be interested in learning the total value of bitcoin and how much goods and services are purchased annually vs the same for US money.
I was only able to do a quick search so hopefully someone can supply better numbers but it looks like the total value of bitcoin is over 100 billion. An article claimed that the last 3 months of 2019 saw 600 million in illegal purchases alone using bitcoin. Though I'm skeptical as to how they're arriving at that number. I would imagine it's a bit difficult to track how much is actually spent on dark web markets. It's also problematic for both bitcoin and dollars as to where the line is drawn for counting something as a purchase of a good or service vs speculation, investing, or savings. |
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14th July 2020, 01:14 PM | #678 |
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I have made the counter arguments so often in the past that repeating them is pointless. I know from experience that my rebuttals will be ignored and those same arguments made as if I had never posted anything at all.
The post consisted mainly about quibbling about the meaning of words and ignoring the substance of my argument or trying by stealth to make it appear that the substance of my argument had been rebutted. I didn't have to point that out because the post repeated the stupidest argument against bitcoin which means that you can be sure that the rest of the post is of an equally low standard. |
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14th July 2020, 01:15 PM | #679 |
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14th July 2020, 01:17 PM | #680 |
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