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Old 30th July 2018, 07:24 AM   #1441
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
He was an inactive double agent but he was apparently still working for British intelligence when he got poisoned. This, along with the short distance from Porton Down, allows for several possibilities. Some examples:

- He might have been called in to Porton Down as a consultant on the substance, and ended up accidentally getting poisoned by it.
Skripal was and is not a scientist. Why would be need to handle the actual substance?

Quote:
- He wasn't the target but the assassin (or an accomplice) who went to Porton Down to get the poison and ended up accidentally poisoning himself with it.
You don't just wander in to Porton Down and pick up nerve agents. As Jack suggests, a conspiracy like the one you're suggesting would go pretty far up the food chain.

Last edited by Information Analyst; 30th July 2018 at 07:26 AM.
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Old 30th July 2018, 07:28 AM   #1442
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Well if the British had bumped him off, and made it look like the Russians, because they found out he was screwing them over (or because they had some other reason) then they're obviously not going to be spreading it far and wide that they had a reason, of course they'd keep it quiet. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, especially when absence of evidence is the expected situation either way.
Sounds like the magic permission to believe anything you want.
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Old 30th July 2018, 07:31 AM   #1443
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Good question, you'd have to ask the Russians. Strictly speaking it never went to court, because IIRC the procedure is that upon receipt of evidence against the accused that a court case is opened.
Hang on, you said:

Quote:
I'm gonna go with "if the British prosecution had any serious evidence then they wouldn't have refused to present evidence to the court."
Are you talking about a Russian court or a British one?
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Old 30th July 2018, 08:52 AM   #1444
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Nitpick: he wasn't killed in Britain.
Exactly when the russians assassinate someone in britain they don't screw it up.
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Old 30th July 2018, 01:42 PM   #1445
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
You don't just wander in to Porton Down and pick up nerve agents. As Jack suggests, a conspiracy like the one you're suggesting would go pretty far up the food chain.
Meanwhile they treat the suggestion that Putin would be aware let alone have to permit a plot to murder a person in Britain, with a poison that would certainly point to Russian state involvement, as somehow being laughable.

There's no way he wasn't the one who had to sign off on it.
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Old 31st July 2018, 02:11 AM   #1446
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Blimey.
This has all become a bit desperate for the Russia-apologists.
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Old 31st July 2018, 02:34 AM   #1447
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Blimey.
This has all become a bit desperate for the Russia-apologists.
First, deny it.
Next demand evidence, the kind that they know would reveal sources and methods.
Plan B: moral equivalence
Plan C: "Could be other people also, there's a lot of people out there"
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Old 31st July 2018, 10:01 AM   #1448
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Mod WarningVarious Rule 11 breaches moved to AAH. Remember the topic of this thread is not forum moderation nor the conspiracy theories about the death of such people as Diane or Kelly
Posted By:Darat
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Old 1st August 2018, 05:31 AM   #1449
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
The closest reference I can find to that in your link is that the CIA study and then reuse parts of hacking tools they find employed by Russian criminal gangs. Was that what you were referring to?
From the source:
Quote:
Marble is used to hamper forensic investigators and anti-virus companies from attributing viruses, trojans and hacking attacks to the CIA.

Marble does this by hiding ("obfuscating") text fragments used in CIA malware from visual inspection. This is the digital equivallent of a specalized CIA tool to place covers over the english language text on U.S. produced weapons systems before giving them to insurgents secretly backed by the CIA.

{...}

The source code shows that Marble has test examples not just in English but also in Chinese, Russian, Korean, Arabic and Farsi. This would permit a forensic attribution double game, for example by pretending that the spoken language of the malware creator was not American English, but Chinese, but then showing attempts to conceal the use of Chinese, drawing forensic investigators even more strongly to the wrong conclusion, --- but there are other possibilities, such as hiding fake error messages.
So no, it's not studying and reusing hacking tools they find employed by Russian criminal gangs. It's designing their own malware such that investigators would think it comes from someone else (Russians, Chinese, ...). Most importantly, this is what you'd expect from any competent intelligence service.

The point is that, when you're talking about operations by secret services, you can't just jump to conclusions in the sense of "the malware has obfuscated Russian so it must have been the Russians."[*] The same thing about "Novichok was used so it must have been the Russians."

* remember a thread from over a year ago when we talked about the hacking surrounding Hillary's leaked emails and y'all jumped to exactly that conclusion based on exactly that evidence, but that I said that you can't make that conclusion on that basis? Well, there you go, that's exactly why you can't jump to conclusions like that.
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Old 1st August 2018, 05:38 AM   #1450
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Skripal was and is not a scientist. Why would be need to handle the actual substance?
No idea.

Quote:
You don't just wander in to Porton Down and pick up nerve agents. As Jack suggests, a conspiracy like the one you're suggesting would go pretty far up the food chain.
So let's just go with another conspiracy which does go all the way up the food chain to the president himself (Putin)? If the only reason you're willing to go with a big conspiracy but not with a smaller one is because the former is from a country you don't have affinity with and the latter is from a country you do have affinity with then you're not doing skepticism, you're doing nationalist ideology masquerading as skepticism.
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Old 1st August 2018, 05:41 AM   #1451
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Sounds like the magic permission to believe anything you want.
1. X => Y
2. ~X => Y
3. Y

If you're willing to conclude X over ~X (or vice versa) from that then you are the one asking for magic permission to believe anything you want, it is not the person pointing out that those premises do not differentiate between X and ~X who is doing so. In order for you to conclude X from that over ~X the second premise should be "~X => ~Y" (ie "if the British secret service had reason to kill him then they would've made that public" which is obviously false).

Don't fail basic inference again.
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Old 1st August 2018, 05:42 AM   #1452
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Hang on, you said:



Are you talking about a Russian court or a British one?
A Russian one of course. As I said, the constitution forbids the extradition of citizens, but allows a foreign prosecution to make their case for a Russian court.
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Old 1st August 2018, 06:24 AM   #1453
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
A Russian one of course. As I said, the constitution forbids the extradition of citizens, but allows a foreign prosecution to make their case for a Russian court.
Exactly how many people have been convicted this way?
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Old 1st August 2018, 06:43 AM   #1454
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
So let's just go with another conspiracy which does go all the way up the food chain to the president himself (Putin)? If the only reason you're willing to go with a big conspiracy but not with a smaller one is because the former is from a country you don't have affinity with and the latter is from a country you do have affinity with then you're not doing skepticism, you're doing nationalist ideology masquerading as skepticism.
Well there is one difference which may be relevant, which is that Russia declared it lawful to assassinate the nation's enemies overseas.


Clearly we can't prove who did it, if we could then we wouldn't be having this discussion, but this isn't a court and nobody's on trial here. Just people offering opinions. Mine is that when I hear hoofbeats I can accept it might be a false flag operation by a zebra banging coconut shells together but I'm thinking horses.
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Old 1st August 2018, 08:35 AM   #1455
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
So let's just go with another conspiracy which does go all the way up the food chain to the president himself (Putin)?
Yes because that actually makes sense.

I just love how Russian apologists like to play two inconsistent arguments: if the Russian government really was behind something no matter whether it's shooting down airliners, murdering political dissidents, hacking servers or poisoning people then they wouldn't be so sloppy as to be caught red handed. You wouldn't know it was them because they are so smooth. That means that, since they are supposedly caught red handed, they are being framed!

On the other hand they love to argue that Putin and the Kremlin is completely innocent because Russia is basically an anarchy and he can't control anything really. It might have been Jews in Russia with Russian citizenship who hacked those servers or it might have been the mafia! Who knows?

Quote:
If the only reason you're willing to go with a big conspiracy but not with a smaller one is because the former is from a country you don't have affinity with and the latter is from a country you do have affinity with then you're not doing skepticism, you're doing nationalist ideology masquerading as skepticism.
On the other hand dedicating yourself towards defending Russia, and only Russia, from any and all accusations no matter how well founded they are or how ridiculous your attempts of refutation become is what "skepticism" is all about. It doesn't matter what it is about or why it happened, the only important thing is that Russia didn't do nothing and is completely innocent.

I mean it's really strange that the same actors appear time and time again to defend Russia, or push the Kremlins current line, no matter what the subject is about.
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Old 2nd August 2018, 12:46 AM   #1456
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And how is the security services in the UK hiding their involvement in the poisoning any smaller a conspiracy than the Russians hiding their involvement in the poisoning?
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Old 2nd August 2018, 08:55 AM   #1457
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
No idea.
Yet still you felt qualified to make the suggestion?

Quote:
So let's just go with another conspiracy which does go all the way up the food chain to the president himself (Putin)? If the only reason you're willing to go with a big conspiracy but not with a smaller one is because the former is from a country you don't have affinity with and the latter is from a country you do have affinity with then you're not doing skepticism, you're doing nationalist ideology masquerading as skepticism.
It's not really a conspiracy theory to point out that the Salisbury attack constitutes something that the Russian state/authorities/media have been happily advocating for some time.

BBC News: Russia law on killing 'extremists' abroad
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Old 2nd August 2018, 08:57 AM   #1458
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
A Russian one of course. As I said, the constitution forbids the extradition of citizens, but allows a foreign prosecution to make their case for a Russian court.
Laughable.
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Old 2nd August 2018, 10:05 AM   #1459
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
1. X => Y
2. ~X => Y
3. Y

If you're willing to conclude X over ~X (or vice versa) from that then you are the one asking for magic permission to believe anything you want, it is not the person pointing out that those premises do not differentiate between X and ~X who is doing so. In order for you to conclude X from that over ~X the second premise should be "~X => ~Y" (ie "if the British secret service had reason to kill him then they would've made that public" which is obviously false).

Don't fail basic inference again.
Basic inference says that, given Y, X ->Y is true regardless of what X stands for. Not a particularly useful argument.

If X stands for "The Russians did it, " then ~X is that they didn't, by the way. ~X does not stand for "The UK did it. "

Perhaps you should review basic logic. If the UK did it then the Russians didn't, but the converse doesn't hold.
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Old 2nd August 2018, 10:20 AM   #1460
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
Basic inference says that, given Y, X ->Y is true regardless of what X stands for. Not a particularly useful argument.
Obviously, which is exactly my point.

Quote:
If X stands for "The Russians did it, " then ~X is that they didn't, by the way. ~X does not stand for "The UK did it. "

Perhaps you should review basic logic. If the UK did it then the Russians didn't, but the converse doesn't hold.
X = "British intelligence had no reason to kill him"
~X = "British intelligence had a reason to kill him."
Y = "It is not public knowledge that British intelligence had a reason to kill him."

Premises:

X => Y
~X => Y
Y

Someone else's conclusion: X. I objected to that conclusion, accurately, and it is that person who should review basic logic, not me. As I said:
Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
If you're willing to conclude X over ~X (or vice versa) from that then you are the one asking for magic permission to believe anything you want, it is not the person pointing out that those premises do not differentiate between X and ~X who is doing so.
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Old 7th August 2018, 07:12 AM   #1461
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I haven't been following this thread lately, but what do you think of the timing of these attacks. First the incident with the former Russian agent just before the World Cup and then the bottle of nerve agent conveniently found just before the Trump-Putin meeting.

To me it seems anti-Russian actors want to derail Putin.
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Old 7th August 2018, 07:41 AM   #1462
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Originally Posted by MaGZ View Post
I haven't been following this thread lately, but what do you think of the timing of these attacks. First the incident with the former Russian agent just before the World Cup and then the bottle of nerve agent conveniently found just before the Trump-Putin meeting.

To me it seems anti-Russian actors want to derail Putin.
Actually, the first incident was just before the Russian election, which Putin won with 77%. That's over 10% higher than his previous election win in 2012. So it obviously didn't do him any harm whatsoever, and may well have been the point.
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Old 7th August 2018, 08:21 AM   #1463
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That's an interesting idea of "just before".
The woman who died was poisoned over a fortnight before the Helsinki summit.

You could tie an awful lot of events together with that sort of flexibility.
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Old 7th August 2018, 08:47 AM   #1464
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Originally Posted by MaGZ View Post
I haven't been following this thread lately, but what do you think of the timing of these attacks. First the incident with the former Russian agent just before the World Cup and then the bottle of nerve agent conveniently found just before the Trump-Putin meeting.

To me it seems anti-Russian actors want to derail Putin.
Now all we have to do is figure out who this secret cabal of "anti-Russian actors who want to derail Putin" really are.

Originally Posted by MaGZ View Post
It is clear to me the MOSSAD was responsible for this attempted assassination. Once again they achieved a false-flag attack as they did in 2001. (see "The Anthrax Mystery: Solved") Their motive was to overthrow and isolate the Putin regime. They are still upset over Putin kicking out all the Jewish oligarchs. The Jews still dream of ruling Russia.

The nerve agent came from Ness Ziona, Israel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel...gical_Research
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Old 7th August 2018, 09:07 AM   #1465
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Originally Posted by MaGZ View Post
To me it seems anti-Russian actors want to derail Putin.
I'm sure Putin will want to call upon your expert opinion in order to exonerate himself when he's sitting in the defendants cage.
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