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Old 9th August 2017, 09:38 AM   #1
Civet
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Baltimore Crime Issues

There's been a lot of reporting lately on Baltimore suffering record and rising murder rates along with very high rates of other serious crime. Looks like the last time they got a murder rate decrease was 2011. Massive surge in 2015. Anyone have a sense of what's going wrong? Not so much why Baltimore is worse than other cities, but why it's worse that it was just a few years ago?
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Old 9th August 2017, 11:31 AM   #2
Aepervius
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https://fee.org/articles/what-caused...l-of-violence/

TL;DR it can be a combination of too many crime enabling more crime by having the police overwhelmed, and possibly the police shuffling their feat after some of them were arrested / indicted into two separate incident and arrest dropped extremely low after both case went to the media (in other word the police pouted that they were caught red handed).
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Old 9th August 2017, 11:44 AM   #3
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It is someone else's fault. Probably republicans.
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Old 9th August 2017, 11:47 AM   #4
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How about random variation?
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Old 9th August 2017, 11:50 AM   #5
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Baltimore has had one of highest crime rates in the country for some time;so an uptick is not exactly earth shaking news.
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Old 9th August 2017, 01:04 PM   #6
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There's...a lot here.
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Old 9th August 2017, 01:14 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
https://fee.org/articles/what-caused...l-of-violence/

TL;DR it can be a combination of too many crime enabling more crime by having the police overwhelmed, and possibly the police shuffling their feat after some of them were arrested / indicted into two separate incident and arrest dropped extremely low after both case went to the media (in other word the police pouted that they were caught red handed).
Thanks, that was interesting. What I'm taking away from this and other articles on the subject is that Baltimore is completely screwed. The crime problem isn't going to get fixed. The only viable solution is to systematically lie about the crime statistics for years as a way of tricking non-criminals into moving into the city.
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Old 9th August 2017, 01:17 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Wolrab View Post
It is someone else's fault. Probably republicans.
It's either that or chemtrails. I see no other alternative.
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Old 9th August 2017, 01:25 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
The only viable solution is to systematically lie about the crime statistics for years as a way of tricking non-criminals into moving into the city.
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I AGREE
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Old 9th August 2017, 01:59 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Baltimore has had one of highest crime rates in the country for some time;so an uptick is not exactly earth shaking news.
The article's almost a year old, but it notes that homicides in Baltimore increased from 211 in 2014 to 344 in 2015, a 63% increase. That strikes me as newsworthy, if no longer news (because it's more history now). The article notes that 2016 homicides were on track (as of August 2016) to reach 294; unfortunately the citizens of Baltimore redoubled their efforts late in the year and managed to kill 318 before New Year's Day.

Reading the article it seems clear that attempts to rein in police misconduct turned out to be counterproductive to the safety of the community. Freddie Gray's death may have been murder (or negligent homicide) on the part of the cops involved. But at least part of the outcome of the investigation and prosecution of those cops appears to have been the deaths of hundreds of other citizens of Baltimore.

Personally I am appalled at the situation. Although I am generally supportive of the police, there are certainly some bad apples and they need to be thrown out of the barrel. But if this is the result--hundreds of others killed needlessly, then there are no real good options.
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Old 9th August 2017, 02:10 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
Thanks, that was interesting. What I'm taking away from this and other articles on the subject is that Baltimore is completely screwed. The crime problem isn't going to get fixed. The only viable solution is to systematically lie about the crime statistics for years as a way of tricking non-criminals into moving into the city.
Memphis did that several years ago when they had the nation's highest per capita violent crime rate. Daylight home burglaries were reported as vandalism to the DoJ (because the burglar kicked the door in) to make the serious crime rate look lower.
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Old 9th August 2017, 02:25 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
Memphis did that several years ago when they had the nation's highest per capita violent crime rate. Daylight home burglaries were reported as vandalism to the DoJ (because the burglar kicked the door in) to make the serious crime rate look lower.
Has it helped? (to bring in non criminals into the city and thus curbing actual crime?)
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Old 9th August 2017, 02:28 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by gregthehammer View Post
Has it helped? (to bring in non criminals into the city and thus curbing actual crime?)
Who knows? You can't believe the police figures. Everybody who can get out of Memphis is leaving the city, Shelby county, and the state of Tennessee.
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Old 9th August 2017, 02:32 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by John Jones View Post
Memphis did that several years ago when they had the nation's highest per capita violent crime rate. Daylight home burglaries were reported as vandalism to the DoJ (because the burglar kicked the door in) to make the serious crime rate look lower.
Since the technique is already being used, I guess there will some data that the Baltimore PD can use to refine the technique. Maybe also start seeding some stories about the inexpensive city real estate being a good investment. Also get some local activists to complain noisily about excessive gentrification to attract that sort of thing. Don't they already have a number of microbreweries in Baltimore?
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Old 9th August 2017, 03:19 PM   #15
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I have heard the idea of the police are so scared, or perhaps fed up, with all the micro managing that they are just stepping back and phoning it in, to show the local populations they protect what it's like without them. This in respect to Chicago.

I wonder if anyone is actually studying that. These violent crime increases seem specific to certain cities and not cross-country, last time I saw a graph a few months back.
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Old 9th August 2017, 03:36 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
I have heard the idea of the police are so scared, or perhaps fed up, with all the micro managing that they are just stepping back and phoning it in, to show the local populations they protect what it's like without them. This in respect to Chicago.

I wonder if anyone is actually studying that. These violent crime increases seem specific to certain cities and not cross-country, last time I saw a graph a few months back.
I've heard much the same. I don't have the first-hand knowledge to know whether the police officers' feelings of being scapegoated and overly-scrutinized are well-founded, but they definitely seem to feel that way and they do appear to react by making their departments more dysfunctional. No clue how to fix that. It doesn't happen in every large city so it doesn't seem like an inevitability.
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Old 9th August 2017, 04:15 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
I have heard the idea of the police are so scared, or perhaps fed up, with all the micro managing that they are just stepping back and phoning it in, to show the local populations they protect what it's like without them. This in respect to Chicago.

I wonder if anyone is actually studying that. These violent crime increases seem specific to certain cities and not cross-country, last time I saw a graph a few months back.
All I know anything about is Memphis - it's historically had a dangerous police force. Dangerous to the citizens. It's not like it was in the 1960s and 1970s, but it's racially polarized. Everything in Memphis is racially polarized except for good pork BBQ. I don't see any end in sight.
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Old 10th August 2017, 06:05 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
There's...a lot here.
Dude. Do you live in Baltimore?

I remember Chris Rock joking after Iraq got taken in two weeks. 'You couldn't take Baltimore in two weeks'.
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Old 10th August 2017, 09:33 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Dude. Do you live in Baltimore?
No, but right outside. As in, "Drive down the street, take a left, and there you are". And I grew up in Boston, so I've never lived in Baltimore. But I do try to mentor kids in Bmore, when I can.

It seems to me that this is somewhat a reaction to the Freddie Grey case. Distrust in police can be earned, but it's also incredibly corrosive. When people don't trust police at all, they turn towards their own weapons.

I also expect that this is less about the death of Freddie Grey, and more about the day of his funeral, when police basically attacked a group of high schoolers as they were trying to go home. You'll likely remember the footage of a CVS burning, or the footage of a mother basically beating the crap out of her kid (and can we be real? That was abuse.). You probably didn't see the police in riot gear, shutting down the public transit that many kids use to go home from school, and then telling them to go home, and then firing tear gas and rubber bullets at them when they wouldn't magically disperse.

This is not to excuse any rioter - they're all responsible for their own actions. But let's not act like police didn't set things off.

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I remember Chris Rock joking after Iraq got taken in two weeks. 'You couldn't take Baltimore in two weeks'.
During his special in DC, as I recall.
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Old 10th August 2017, 09:38 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Beerina View Post
I have heard the idea of the police are so scared, or perhaps fed up, with all the micro managing that they are just stepping back and phoning it in, to show the local populations they protect what it's like without them. This in respect to Chicago.

I wonder if anyone is actually studying that. These violent crime increases seem specific to certain cities and not cross-country, last time I saw a graph a few months back.
Exactly they are barely even bothering to frame people anymore.
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Old 10th August 2017, 09:51 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Exactly they are barely even bothering to frame people anymore.
The tradecraft has gotten really shoddy. Getting to be that a fella actually has to try and make a bust clean.
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Old 10th August 2017, 09:55 AM   #22
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My money goes here:


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/mar...130-story.html

Median household income for African-Americans in Baltimore is nearly half that of whites, $33,801 compared to $62,751, according to the report by the Corporation for Enterprise Development, a nonprofit based in Washington
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:02 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
My money goes here:


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/mar...130-story.html

Median household income for African-Americans in Baltimore is nearly half that of whites, $33,801 compared to $62,751, according to the report by the Corporation for Enterprise Development, a nonprofit based in Washington
The poverty does not help, I'll agree.
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:03 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
The poverty does not help, I'll agree.

When one looks around and sees, almost without fail, that all the poor people look like you and all the rich people don't then it becomes obvious that the system is rigged and, if the system is rigged, why play by the rules?

I imagine crime seems like a cracking career move at that point.
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:07 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
My money goes here:


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/mar...130-story.html

Median household income for African-Americans in Baltimore is nearly half that of whites, $33,801 compared to $62,751, according to the report by the Corporation for Enterprise Development, a nonprofit based in Washington
It's a problem, but it's not a new problem. Certainly not one that first popped up in the past few years. The Freddie Gray incident and its aftermath seem to have worsened everything, but crime was rising before even that.
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:11 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
https://fee.org/articles/what-caused...l-of-violence/

TL;DR it can be a combination of too many crime enabling more crime by having the police overwhelmed, and possibly the police shuffling their feat after some of them were arrested / indicted into two separate incident and arrest dropped extremely low after both case went to the media (in other word the police pouted that they were caught red handed).
Looks like pouting police slowdown at least played a role.
Quote:
The data shows that arrests were falling in Baltimore, long before Freddie Gray. In fact, arrests in 2015 were down by a third, year over year — before Gray’s ride downtown, before the riots, indictments, and spiraling crime. ...

... Something happened in October or late September to trigger a “work slowdown” in BPD.

What was happening in Baltimore in the early fall of 2014? Not protests, riots, or a rash of injured officers. Instead, it was a public scandal, of the sort sadly typical for Baltimore, involving police. [snipped the details, police caught on video beating a guy then lying about it.]

October 29, 2014: Officer Cosom is charged with assault and perjury.

What made this story different from hundreds of others was not that a Baltimore cop beat someone up, or that BPD ignored it, or that the media reported on it, or that BPD’s reputation for violence eroded the community’s trust. What was unusual was the response: officers rarely face criminal charges, even when the taxpayers can pay out millions in civil suits for their actions.

Beyond this particular case, the city brought in federal investigators to evaluate its policies and practices, and the commissioner pledged a real effort at accountability — including reform for excessive union obstacles on investigating and disciplining cops. Body cameras became politically viable again. The mayor even suggested amending Maryland’s “Law Enforcement Officer’s Bill of Rights,” a special set of legal protections for cops under criminal investigation.

The effect was dramatic and obvious: police didn’t like it.
After that you have segments of the population reacting with increasing crime:
Quote:
The huge fall in arrests after Freddie Gray’s funeral and the large scale rioting combined to create a perfect climate for violence. Aggravated assault, robbery, and auto theft all spiked. Shootings and murders hit record levels.
Of course people focus on the criminals and don't always look at other systemic problems:
Quote:
It shouldn’t be. But if police in Baltimore find it impossible to do their jobs while being criticized, or filmed, or investigated, they’re in the wrong profession. The union’s paper-thin pretext that cops are afraid of being randomly indicted for legal arrests has no basis in fact, but it reveals the level of absolute discretion that the union wants in exchange for protecting citizens.
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:12 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
When one looks around and sees, almost without fail, that all the poor people look like you and all the rich people don't then it becomes obvious that the system is rigged and, if the system is rigged, why play by the rules?

I imagine crime seems like a cracking career move at that point.
Growing up in Boston, people knew that they were wrong - there is a culture involved. As I said, poverty didn't help, and here in Bmore, you can just draw a line around where white people live, and where wealth is. Same line.

But at the same time...growing up, the actual thugs (and I don't mean this is a stereotypical sense, but in the actual "violent criminal" sense) were on my side, more than any cop, teacher, or so forth. "Oh, wait, you're going to this school? You're in AP? Well, you can't come with us - and don't do this thing we're going to do!"

They knew hey were wrong.
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:21 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
When one looks around and sees, almost without fail, that all the poor people look like you and all the rich people don't then it becomes obvious that the system is rigged and, if the system is rigged, why play by the rules?

I imagine crime seems like a cracking career move at that point.
That and seeing how corrupt and violent the police are does not exactly help with getting the community to trust them.
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:22 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
It's a problem, but it's not a new problem. Certainly not one that first popped up in the past few years. The Freddie Gray incident and its aftermath seem to have worsened everything, but crime was rising before even that.
That's true, and it should be addressed. It's difficult to deal with.

Funny enough, Freddie Gray had another issue - lead poisoning. That's also related to crime, in a sense...
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Old 10th August 2017, 10:47 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Looks like pouting police slowdown at least played a role.
Agreed. It seems to be incredibly difficult to criticize or reign in cops without triggering them. I think Dallas managed to pull it off a few years back, but I don't know how.
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Old 10th August 2017, 12:28 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
https://fee.org/articles/what-caused...l-of-violence/

TL;DR it can be a combination of too many crime enabling more crime by having the police overwhelmed, and possibly the police shuffling their feat after some of them were arrested / indicted into two separate incident and arrest dropped extremely low after both case went to the media (in other word the police pouted that they were caught red handed).

According to a cop I spoke with, police are more wary now of pissing off the wrong groups of people and putting pressure on the dept via protests, so the arrests go down. I was told this by an off-duty SFPD police officer (who is a friend of a friend) after I asked why the people who attacked my friend were let go at the scene of the crime. It's just what he said as a frustrated cop one night.

Anyways, different city but...

Half the candidates in Detroit mayoral election are felons

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/new...ons/104244406/

Quote:
Three were charged with gun crimes and two for assault with intent to commit murder. Some of the offenses date back decades, the earliest to 1977. The most recent was in 2008.


Political consultant Greg Bowens said there are candidates with past hardships in every election cycle. It’s not something unique to Detroit or the political arena in general, he said.

Oh sure! Nothing unique here! Neither is Detroit's murder rate. Perhaps this attitude is part of the problem?

Anybody can run for mayor, I just thought this story was funny. Or "funny".

There must be some common factors among these violent cities. Sorting those out might clue us in to the problem.
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Old 10th August 2017, 04:24 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
It's a problem, but it's not a new problem. Certainly not one that first popped up in the past few years. The Freddie Gray incident and its aftermath seem to have worsened everything, but crime was rising before even that.
What's really made it worse is becoming a sanctuary city. Baltimore lost out on federal money, likely because of this. Moreover, current tax dollars are being used to feed and educate illegal immigrants, when it could be going to the children of Baltimore.

This guy is in law enforcement in Baltimore City and has some thought-provoking posts on his timeline.
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Old 10th August 2017, 04:40 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
Baltimore lost out on federal money, likely because of this.
My understanding is that the financial penalty for being a sanctuary city has been promised but not yet implemented. It certainly wasn't in place in 2015 when the murder surge really seems to have taken off. It's also my understanding that the illegal alien population in Baltimore is relatively small. Don't really have accurate stats on that though.
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Old 10th August 2017, 05:18 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
My understanding is that the financial penalty for being a sanctuary city has been promised but not yet implemented. It certainly wasn't in place in 2015 when the murder surge really seems to have taken off. It's also my understanding that the illegal alien population in Baltimore is relatively small. Don't really have accurate stats on that though.
Yes, but there is a theory that the high crime rate is partially due to the poor education in the city. Tax dollars spent elsewhere are making the education problem even worse. There's something like a 130 million dollar deficit the city schools are dealing with.
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Old 10th August 2017, 05:29 PM   #35
Civet
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Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
Yes, but there is a theory that the high crime rate is partially due to the poor education in the city. Tax dollars spent elsewhere are making the education problem even worse. There's something like a 130 million dollar deficit the city schools are dealing with.
130 million? That's absurd. There's just no easy way to close that kind of budget hole. I'd probably legalize drugs and prostitution to try to raise some revenue. Maybe some other dodgy industries that no one else is willing to touch. Baltimore really is screwed.
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Old 10th August 2017, 05:33 PM   #36
Ampulla of Vater
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
130 million? That's absurd. There's just no easy way to close that kind of budget hole. I'd probably legalize drugs and prostitution to try to raise some revenue. Maybe some other dodgy industries that no one else is willing to touch. Baltimore really is screwed.
Well, they sold everyone on the casinos, which were supposed to fund education. Unfortunately the politicians are free to use the casino money elsewhere, and they have.

Yes, Baltimore is screwed.
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Old 11th August 2017, 03:16 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
When one looks around and sees, almost without fail, that all the poor people look like you and all the rich people don't then it becomes obvious that the system is rigged and, if the system is rigged, why play by the rules?
Yeah, all the rich people are white, and so black people never see any rich blacks. Well, except for Oprah. And black sports stars. And music stars, and TV stars and movie stars and comedians and even the occasional entrepreneur like Herman Cain, or a surgeon like Ben Carson.
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Old 11th August 2017, 09:47 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Yeah, all the rich people are white, and so black people never see any rich blacks. Well, except for Oprah. And black sports stars. And music stars, and TV stars and movie stars and comedians and even the occasional entrepreneur like Herman Cain, or a surgeon like Ben Carson.

I would also guess the reason why poor black people don't look around and see wealthy people that look like them is because wealthy black people themselves don't want to become victims of crime that is prevalent in impoverished inner cities and leave the area as soon as they have the means.
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Old 12th August 2017, 12:06 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Ampulla of Vater View Post
Well, they sold everyone on the casinos, which were supposed to fund education. Unfortunately the politicians are free to use the casino money elsewhere, and they have.

Yes, Baltimore is screwed.
I don't agree.

This city has problems. But there are so many good people, who are ready to put in work
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Old 12th August 2017, 12:23 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
there are so many good people, who are ready to put in work
You know, despite not having spent much time in Baltimore, I don't doubt that. Thing is, I also don't doubt that the city has had lots of good people in it for a long time. Many troubled places do. I tend to subscribe to the idea that systems and structures are enormously important in making a civilization work even when you have a basically good population. I haven't spent enough time in Baltimore or even studied it enough from a distance to know exactly what's wrong there (Homicide and the Wire are great shows, but they aren't documentaries).
Since you're a smart guy and you've got the local knowledge, what would you do if you were running things there?
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