ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 15th January 2019, 04:13 PM   #201
qayak
Penultimate Amazing
 
qayak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 13,375
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
You said:

When the reality is that, even without treatment, more like 95% of "alcoholics" will stop drinking (harmfully) by age 65, due to the "aging out" (of risky behaviors) effect.

It's a little weirder than that when you get into the details, but the overall effect is basically similar to that.
AA uses a metric for their success rate. They look at various time periods, say 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years in the program. When researchers used AA's metric for alcoholics who didn't attend treatment programs the results were the same.

The fact that the vast majority of alcoholics stop drinking by age 65 is irrelevant to any of this.
__________________
"How long you live, how high you fly
The smiles you'll give, and tears you'll cry
And all you touch, and all you see
Is all your life will ever be."
qayak is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2019, 06:21 PM   #202
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,119
Originally Posted by qayak View Post
AA uses a metric for their success rate. They look at various time periods, say 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years in the program.
AA often claims a 75% effectiveness rate. [source]
Sometimes they claim a 100% effectiveness rate. [source]
They don't state their metrics anywhere. They don't have metrics. They don't think they need metrics. AA's claims are based on faith and their own folk wisdom.

When you say, "AA uses a metric for their success rate. They look at various time periods, say 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years in the program.",... what are you talking about?

The only thing I know of that comes close to "published research" directly from AA is this, which is nonscientific gobbledygook, and all you can tell from it is that in any given meeting, about 5% of the people there will be at 12 months sober, which tells you nothing about effectiveness.

Quote:
The fact that the vast majority of alcoholics stop drinking by age 65 is irrelevant to any of this.
It's evidence that by age 65, the success rate of doing "nothing formal" treatment-wise is a surprising ~95%.

Quote:
Even without treatment, and measured the way AA is measured, 5-8% of alcoholics will stop drinking.
What's your source for that?
Just curious. It doesn't sound implausible. Just wondering how many years out that is.
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th January 2019, 07:33 PM   #203
whoanellie
Critical Thinker
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 348
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
I brought it up before, but I'm aware of the fact that there's a subset of people for whom it works really well.



Pubmed abstract here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3168759
For the record, the paper you reference has nothing to do with AA. From the paper "Alcoholics were offered a socio-medical treatment programme which was initiated at the University of Trieste in 1979 [9], according to a Croatian model [10]. "
whoanellie is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th January 2019, 08:21 PM   #204
kellyb
Penultimate Amazing
 
kellyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 11,119
Originally Posted by whoanellie View Post
For the record, the paper you reference has nothing to do with AA. From the paper "Alcoholics were offered a socio-medical treatment programme which was initiated at the University of Trieste in 1979 [9], according to a Croatian model [10]. "
What was the Croation model in reference 10?

I'm pretty sure it was 12 step...

eta:
We know it was some sort of interactional group thing:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...e=pdf#page=523
Quote:
While dependent and nonsociopathic individuals are more easily
engaged in interactional group models
, individuals with sociopathic and other
character problems are better retained in coping skills groups (Cooney, Kadden,
Litt, & Getter, 1991; Poldrugo & Forti, 1988).
And it looks like it was probably "group self-help":

Quote:
The immense popularity of group treatment and self-help for alcoholics and
other substance abusers preceded the availability of significant numbers of controlled outcome studies (Bowers & al-Rheda, 1990; Cooney et al., 1991; Kang,514 V. TREATMENTS FOR ADDICTIONS
Kleinman, & Woody, 1991; Poldrugo & Forti, 1988; Yalom et al., 1978).
__________________
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts ~ Bertrand Russell
I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend.

Last edited by kellyb; 18th January 2019 at 08:37 PM.
kellyb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th January 2019, 12:10 AM   #205
whoanellie
Critical Thinker
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 348
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
What was the Croation model in reference 10?

I'm pretty sure it was 12 step...

eta:
We know it was some sort of interactional group thing:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...e=pdf#page=523


And it looks like it was probably "group self-help":
You used the study to support your argument and now you are asking me how the study was done?

Last edited by whoanellie; 19th January 2019 at 12:13 AM.
whoanellie is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th January 2019, 12:21 AM   #206
cullennz
Embarrasingly illiterate
 
cullennz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 15,281
I've always thought the AA would work for a lot of people, as it is just replacing one crutch (alcohol), for another crutch (religion)
__________________
I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. With today’s Internet technology we should be able to tell within 72-hours if a potential gun owner has a record.

Source: The America We Deserve, by Donald Trump, p.102 , Jul 2, 2000
cullennz is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 19th January 2019, 09:52 AM   #207
TruthJonsen
New Blood
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 16
Originally Posted by cullennz View Post
I've always thought the AA would work for a lot of people, as it is just replacing one crutch (alcohol), for another crutch (religion)
Always seemed odd to me that in situations needing the most strength, empowerment and self confidence someone thinks it is helpful to point out what a small worthless being you are and that you need the daddy in the sky.
TruthJonsen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Social Issues & Current Events

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 07:22 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.