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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Peter Dutton , Scott Morrison

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Old 18th May 2019, 04:17 AM   #1281
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Labor gone.
A number of reasons I think. Not in order of importance.
Bill Shorten not cutting through. His reputation, deserved or not, has harmed Labor.
The big scare campaign has worked on Labor's policies.
The Australian community is more conservative than we understand.
Queensland went with coal jobs.
Morrison's campaign was much better than Labor's. Even though it was a one man band campaign. How could you vote for that? Plenty did, don't understand that one.
Labor's policies too much for our conservative majority. They were too progressive.
People don't care about climate change but prefer tax cuts.
I am sure there are more.
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Old 18th May 2019, 04:20 AM   #1282
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
There is no point in the Labour Party being liberal lite.
With the death of Bob Hawke I thought you would realise that nothing can be done in Opposition. He brought the party from left to centre left, where it has prospered.

And “liberal lite” is a lazy description, sorry to say. The differences between the parties has narrowed over the past few decades, but the differences remain important. Labor have more concern for the disadvantaged and what used to be called the working class, which is still there, better climate and environmental policies (yes, not as far as the Greens, but well ahead of the LNP), more support for the ABC and the arts.... I could go on.

Moving further left will leave the ALP out of power for a decade and may even destroy the party as we know it.
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Old 18th May 2019, 04:21 AM   #1283
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Originally Posted by wombatwal View Post
Labor gone.
A number of reasons I think. Not in order of importance.
Bill Shorten not cutting through. His reputation, deserved or not, has harmed Labor.
The big scare campaign has worked on Labor's policies.
The Australian community is more conservative than we understand.
Queensland went with coal jobs.
Morrison's campaign was much better than Labor's. Even though it was a one man band campaign. How could you vote for that? Plenty did, don't understand that one.
Labor's policies too much for our conservative majority. They were too progressive.
People don't care about climate change but prefer tax cuts.
I am sure there are more.
Pretty good summary Wal.
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Old 18th May 2019, 04:26 AM   #1284
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
With the death of Bob Hawke I thought you would realise that nothing can be done in Opposition. He brought the party from left to centre left, where it has prospered.

And “liberal lite” is a lazy description, sorry to say. The differences between the parties has narrowed over the past few decades, but the differences remain important. Labor have more concern for the disadvantaged and what used to be called the working class, which is still there, better climate and environmental policies (yes, not as far as the Greens, but well ahead of the LNP), more support for the ABC and the arts.... I could go on.

Moving further left will leave the ALP out of power for a decade and may even destroy the party as we know it.
Well that’s a fine clarification because those are left policies. They are also important issues that they must not compromise on for sake of political expediency.
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Old 18th May 2019, 05:05 AM   #1285
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
Well that’s a fine clarification because those are left policies. They are also important issues that they must not compromise on for sake of political expediency.
And I don’t think they ever will. What I object to is abandoning the middle ground and refusing adopt and perhaps even improve on LNP strengths.

Do you doubt ALP ideologues will push further towards the left, regardless of the electoral cost? I don’t. When I was young I was happy to be left and powerless. Not now.
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Old 18th May 2019, 05:16 AM   #1286
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
And I don’t think they ever will. What I object to is abandoning the middle ground and refusing adopt and perhaps even improve on LNP strengths.

Do you doubt ALP ideologues will push further towards the left, regardless of the electoral cost? I don’t. When I was young I was happy to be left and powerless. Not now.
Not in a frame of mind to discuss this now. Good night, mate.
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Old 18th May 2019, 05:31 AM   #1287
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Originally Posted by Sideroxylon View Post
Not in a frame of mind to discuss this now. Good night, mate.
I agree. I’m in Tokyo now and after a very hectic day was settling down for a celebratory drink. The taste of ashes is not good.

Off to Mt Fuji tomorrow and so far haven’t met an Aussie. Thank Christ.
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Old 18th May 2019, 05:44 AM   #1288
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I am just kicking myself that I didn't place that bet I said I would put on the Coalition winning. I could have made a motza.

That's me. Good ideas, don't follow through.
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Old 18th May 2019, 05:44 AM   #1289
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I agree. I’m in Tokyo now and after a very hectic day was settling down for a celebratory drink. The taste of ashes is not good.

Off to Mt Fuji tomorrow and so far haven’t met an Aussie. Thank Christ.
Sounds like bloody good timing. What a fantastic distraction. Enjoy yourself!
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Old 18th May 2019, 06:01 AM   #1290
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Originally Posted by wombatwal View Post
The Australian community is more conservative than we understand.
But you notice that the far right of the Liberal Party appear to have been locked in a cupboard for the election.

So the LNP strategists realise that the Australian community is not that far to the right.

On the other hand, government having been retained, those guys will be back claiming a mandate for the stuff they didn't dare mention during the election.
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Old 18th May 2019, 06:27 AM   #1291
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Bill Shorten has just called Scott Morrison to concede,

Speeches happening right now.

ETA Shorten has just announced that he is stepping down as leader.
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Old 18th May 2019, 06:33 AM   #1292
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I had thought that this was merely the polling companies failing to allocate the preferences correctly. After all, the last Newspoll would have predicted a Coalition win if all the ON and UAP preferences were allocated to the LNP and all the Greens preferences to Labor.

But apparently the polls have even been disastrously wrong on the primary votes.
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Old 18th May 2019, 07:02 AM   #1293
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Any news yet of where Tony Abbott's fabulously paying overseas posting is going to be? Rumour is it will be the Holy See.
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Old 18th May 2019, 07:23 AM   #1294
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It is still not known if the coalition will get a majority in its own right.

Apparently the pre-polling votes have yet to be counted. According to ABC analyst Antony Green:
Quote:
10:31pm: If pre-polls favour Labor, then the Government is going to fall short of a majority. If the pre-polls are exactly the same as the results we're getting tonight, then I think the Government will win 76 seats.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/election...t=az&state=all
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Old 18th May 2019, 10:28 AM   #1295
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Stunned.

And gutted for any Aussies with either a brain or a heart.
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Old 18th May 2019, 04:29 PM   #1296
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I have to agree with all of the above.

This probably does change the political landscape.

So much for "the bookies never get it wrong".

I'm wondering why all the opinion polls are publishing numbers which are so far from the actual numbers.

A 1% margin of error is explainable, but last night was incredible.

Clive Palmer's campaign ("Don't vote for Liberal or Labor") to suck up the disaffected votes, and then channel it to the libs via preferences was pretty tricky. I'll be interested to see if it had any effect.

Rumours have it that he spent 60 million dollars of other people's money doing that.

Postal votes traditionally favour the coalition, it will be extraordinary if they don't this time around.
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Old 18th May 2019, 05:54 PM   #1297
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
So much for "the bookies never get it wrong".
The bookies are just following the money, so they didn't get it wrong - they were making a profit either way.

What surprised me was that nobody had tried to pick a pattern from unofficial (and probably illegal) exit polling of early voters. I would have expected someone to be doing that, and nobody did, or the odds wouldn't have been so clearly Labor favouritism.
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Old 18th May 2019, 06:21 PM   #1298
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Well... That's the thing that is interesting.

IF people are hiding their intentions when speaking to polling organisations, would they not behave the same way when speaking to those same organisations after voting?

There was quite a lot of discussion on the night, that the internal polling, performed by the major parties, gave no indication of the outcome.

IIRC the internal polling performed by the Liberal Coalition was so bad, many members quit their seats.

I can't help but wonder how they're feeling today...

Usually the loss of a sitting member results in a swing against the government, but I didn't see any evidence of that last night.

I'll be very interested to read all the analysis once the dust settles.
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Old 18th May 2019, 11:33 PM   #1299
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
I'll be very interested to read all the analysis once the dust settles.
My Aussie LNP mate is doing handstands, saying it's all about Bill's taxes.*

I stand by analysis earlier in the thread that Shorten was a piss-poor leader who had zero public appeal and the more they saw of him, the less they liked him.



*Also, unbelievably claimed Morrison will be the best PM since Hawke. Yes, I did need a bucket.
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Old 18th May 2019, 11:59 PM   #1300
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>


*Also, unbelievably claimed Morrison will be the best PM since Hawke. Yes, I did need a bucket.
We will have to see how he goes without having Abbott around his neck. If he has any intelligence he will now introduce reforms. Maybe be more conservation minded. Or that could be my wishful thinking.
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Old Yesterday, 01:34 AM   #1301
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
My Aussie LNP mate is doing handstands, saying it's all about Bill's taxes.*

I stand by analysis earlier in the thread that Shorten was a piss-poor leader who had zero public appeal and the more they saw of him, the less they liked him.



*Also, unbelievably claimed Morrison will be the best PM since Hawke. Yes, I did need a bucket.

It all got down to charisma and perceived image. Rudd, even now and with baggage, would have made mincemeat of Morrison. Morrison has very little charisma, but unfortunately Shorten has none.

There is zero correlation between charisma and effective leadership, but strong correlation with getting elected.
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Old Yesterday, 01:43 PM   #1302
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
It all got down to charisma and perceived image. Rudd, even now and with baggage, would have made mincemeat of Morrison. Morrison has very little charisma, but unfortunately Shorten has none.

There is zero correlation between charisma and effective leadership, but strong correlation with getting elected.

Yes an interesting thing about Shorten, I mean why is it that he is so unpopular?

I have a low opinion of him myself and can point to reasons why. His lack of any clear ideology and wishy washiness were evident to me. Didn't score well when he had those on the phone while driving, and running into parked cars incidents, some time ago either.

Morrison now thinks he has been blessed with a "praise Jesus miracle" now. If you found him hard to stomach before just wait for his faith driven BS now.
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Old Yesterday, 02:03 PM   #1303
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What do you think about this?
Quote:
The expert who predicted Trump, Brexit - and Scott Morrison
Mr Morrison's own Facebook page attracted 25 per cent more interactions - reactions, comments and shares - than Bill Shorten's, while the Liberal Party's central Facebook page had almost double the levels of engagement its parallel Labor account had.

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...2sUk1MctsdtmDM

If what he says checks out then it would be a new way to measure popularity. Something almost anyone can do.
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Old Yesterday, 02:27 PM   #1304
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From the expansive pool of “experts” some will have this trifecta.


This seems clear:
"I think Morrison was really trying to make it almost presidential - just look at his campaign launch.“
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Old Yesterday, 06:49 PM   #1305
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Yes an interesting thing about Shorten, I mean why is it that he is so unpopular?

I have a low opinion of him myself and can point to reasons why. His lack of any clear ideology and wishy washiness were evident to me. Didn't score well when he had those on the phone while driving, and running into parked cars incidents, some time ago either.

Morrison now thinks he has been blessed with a "praise Jesus miracle" now. If you found him hard to stomach before just wait for his faith driven BS now.
Yes. Morrison has had most of the mainstream media campaigning relentlessly on his behalf for months, he has had big companies campaigning for him, he has had a preference deal with a guy who just spent $60 million attracting votes and still he has just a one seat victory and this makes him the "Messiah from the Shire" apparently.

We shall see.
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Old Yesterday, 07:10 PM   #1306
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Anthony Green was saying that a possible reason for the opinion poll fail was the demise of the landline and the rise of the mobile only households. But if the data was simply inaccurate why was it inaccurate across all polls with them giving all the same wrong conclusion?

I would suggest it is more likely that the modern method of campaigning, to use robocalls to build up huge databases of names, phone numbers and addresses linked to the political opinion and then to be able to target campaigning more precisely, away from those who will vote the way you want anyway and away from those who are not likely to change and towards the people who might vote either way.

This kind of campaigning, if successful, will produce a result that wouldn't show up in a opinion poll because it will produce a change in particular populations and not across the board.

This method was tried by the "No" campaign in the marriage equality postal survey, but was ultimately unsuccessful. Miranda Devine rather gave the game away saying that the "No" campaign polling had identified a number of individuals with a soft "yes" which might be changed.
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Old Yesterday, 10:26 PM   #1307
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
We will have to see how he goes without having Abbott around his neck. If he has any intelligence he will now introduce reforms. Maybe be more conservation minded. Or that could be my wishful thinking.
Scott Morrison managed to turn a near certain rout into victory and pretty much did it all by himself.

None of the hard right can touch him now so the next 3 years are his.
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Old Today, 01:43 AM   #1308
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Tanya Plibersek decides not to run for leadership

It looks like Tanya Plibersek has decided to keep her powder dry for now. Usually, the new leader of the opposition after an election is just a place holder for the next show pony. Tanya has decided that this won't be her.
Quote:
Tanya Plibersek says she will not run for the Labor leadership in the wake of Bill Shorten's departure.

She has cited as her reason her desire to spend more time with her family.

In a statement, Plibersek said of running for the top Labor job: "Now is not my time".

Plibersek has been the party's deputy leader since 2013 and says she will continue to fill the position until a new leader is determined.
https://7news.com.au/politics/tanya-...p37FZo0HBs9_00
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Old Today, 02:24 PM   #1309
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It looks like Tanya Plibersek has decided to keep her powder dry for now. Usually, the new leader of the opposition after an election is just a place holder for the next show pony. Tanya has decided that this won't be her.

https://7news.com.au/politics/tanya-...p37FZo0HBs9_00
psion. That was the usual thinking on this. But the rules have changed. Shorten had 6 years as leader. The next leader, hopefully Albo now that Tanya has stepped down will contest the next election. Unless some unforeseen event happens.
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Old Today, 03:15 PM   #1310
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Originally Posted by wombatwal View Post
psion. That was the usual thinking on this. But the rules have changed. Shorten had 6 years as leader. The next leader, hopefully Albo now that Tanya has stepped down will contest the next election. Unless some unforeseen event happens.
You are right. Albo will stay. But no “hopefully” for me. The almost inevitable move further left under him will doom the ALP for the next decade.
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Old Today, 03:18 PM   #1311
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
You are right. Albo will stay. But no “hopefully” for me. The almost inevitable move further left under him will doom the ALP for the next decade.
What would a move to far left look like?
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