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Tags abortion laws , political predictions , prediction thread , Roe v. Wade

View Poll Results: When will Roe v Wade be overturned
Before 31 December 2020 20 18.35%
Before 31 December 2022 27 24.77%
Before 31 December 2024 9 8.26%
SCOTUS will not pick a case up 16 14.68%
SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn 37 33.94%
Voters: 109. You may not vote on this poll

Closed Thread
Old 24th June 2022, 07:51 AM   #2001
Bob001
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
Just remember, kids:

1) It doesn’t matter who you vote for.
2) All politicians are corrupt.
3) They’re all the same.
If you don't see any difference between, say, Obama and Trump, or Sanders and Cruz, or AOC and MTJ, you are blind and deaf.
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Old 24th June 2022, 07:52 AM   #2002
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
Just remember, kids:

1) It doesn’t matter who you vote for.
2) All politicians are corrupt.
3) They’re all the same.
Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
If you don't see any difference between, say, Obama and Trump, or Sanders and Cruz, or AOC and MTJ, you are blind and deaf.

Well there is an ancient saying....two of **** is ****.

If one bad thing is worse than another, it doesn't make one of them "good".

Last edited by Warp12; 24th June 2022 at 08:02 AM.
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Old 24th June 2022, 07:52 AM   #2003
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
And now our resident conservatives can cream themselves dreaming of their future Gilead.
Sounds like they'll go after gay marriage next.
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Old 24th June 2022, 07:54 AM   #2004
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In his concurrence, [Justice Clarence] Thomas wrote that the court should now "reconsider" its decisions that found a right to contraception, sex between consenting adult men, and same-sex marriage — and "correct the error" made in cases like "Griswold, Lawerence and Obergefell."

See post 2000.

https://www.salon.com/2022/06/24/in-...obbs-decision/
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Old 24th June 2022, 07:55 AM   #2005
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
Just remember, kids:

1) It doesn’t matter who you vote for.
2) All politicians are corrupt.
3) They’re all the same.
Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
If you don't see any difference between, say, Obama and Trump, or Sanders and Cruz, or AOC and MTJ, you are blind and deaf.
Posted needed a /s to indicate sarcasm, or sardonic-ism perhaps here.

It's mocking the 'Enlightened Independent Centrists' who use the lazy thinking described. The same thinking is used to sooth cognitive dissonance by conservatives who start actually thinking and realize how evil they're being. The same thinking is invoked by authoritarians like Putin in Russia to justify their actions.

Weaponized, lazy, nihilistic, apathy. The only way to justify their failure to even try to do anything is to pretend nothing would have worked anyway.
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Old 24th June 2022, 07:56 AM   #2006
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Just like that, the January 6 Committee Hearings are blasted off the front page. Trump wins again.
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Old 24th June 2022, 07:58 AM   #2007
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
In his concurrence, [Justice Clarence] Thomas wrote that the court should now "reconsider" its decisions that found a right to contraception, sex between consenting adult men, and same-sex marriage — and "correct the error" made in cases like "Griswold, Lawerence and Obergefell."

See post 2000.

https://www.salon.com/2022/06/24/in-...obbs-decision/
I'm sure Warpy doesn't think they will do that either.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Old 24th June 2022, 07:58 AM   #2008
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
Well there is an ancient saying....two of **** is ****.
I don't recognize any such saying. What thought are you trying to express?
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:06 AM   #2009
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
Just like that, the January 6 Committee Hearings are blasted off the front page. Trump wins again.
I'm not so sure about that. The next hearings aren't for a couple weeks, giving them time to be the headline again.

More importantly, it's Drumpf's fault, second only to McConnell. People aren't going to completely ignore that.

What might just happen, along the lines of 'be careful what you wish for', are political upsets in some of these state houses this Nov.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:07 AM   #2010
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My condolences to all the women losing the freedom to chose for themselves. It's a pity seeing a nation once dedicated to freedom slowly transforming itself into one that is not.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:13 AM   #2011
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The January 6 Commission can't undue the nominations of Trump's 3 toadies no matter what they prove Trump did.

The 6-3 Conservative Majority isn't going away in our lifetimes.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:14 AM   #2012
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Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
I'm sure Warpy doesn't think they will do that either.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The Thomas concurrence part about how the other rulings might have to be reconsidered is a mild surprise. However, the surprise is not that those decisions might be on the table (only the same people who've been saying for the last 20 years that the Roe v. Wade stuff is mere grandstanding & not really about Roe v. Wade & Casey being on the table should believe that these other decisions are definitely not on the table) but that he'd say so in the same decision where Alito tries to suggest otherwise (albeit with little or no credibility).
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:14 AM   #2013
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Quick someone check on Susan Collins. Ask her how "concerned" she is about all of this.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:16 AM   #2014
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
Just like that, the January 6 Committee Hearings are blasted off the front page. Trump wins again.
If nothing else, it blasts yesterday's gun ruling off the front page. This is a ruling that all but guarantees virtually any restriction on firearm carry & ownership to become tied up in the courts for years.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:17 AM   #2015
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
In his concurrence, [Justice Clarence] Thomas wrote that the court should now "reconsider" its decisions that found a right to contraception, sex between consenting adult men, and same-sex marriage — and "correct the error" made in cases like "Griswold, Lawerence and Obergefell."

See post 2000.

https://www.salon.com/2022/06/24/in-...obbs-decision/

Back when celebrity chef Cat Cora and her wife had a child, they said that they decided that one of them would carry the other's fertilized egg to term so that they would both have a legal claim to their child, "just in case" something happened to the legal status of their marriage. it's depressing that it may have been a smart decision.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:17 AM   #2016
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Quick someone check on Susan Collins. Ask her how "concerned" she is about all of this.
On the Susan Collins Scale of Concern I believe we've reached "mildly vexed" bordering on "heavily perturbed".
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:17 AM   #2017
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post

This should make for some exciting times ahead, on a state level.
Yeah, especially for rape and incest victims; but then again, they're split-tails who say no when they really mean yes. Right?
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:20 AM   #2018
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
On the Susan Collins Scale of Concern I believe we've reached "mildly vexed" bordering on "heavily perturbed".
Maybe when the first people start getting thrown in ovens she'll reach "Well this a dilly of a pickle..."
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:20 AM   #2019
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Nov will be telling. If the GOP doesn't lose seat after seat in Nov we are in real trouble. If they do then Congress has a chance to pass a federal law protecting human rights.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:22 AM   #2020
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
On the Susan Collins Scale of Concern I believe we've reached "mildly vexed" bordering on "heavily perturbed".
How can you tell the difference?
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:23 AM   #2021
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I suggest that this thread be closed and a new thread opened. There is no more countdown. Roe v. Wade has been overturned. The forces of evil have had their way, and there is certainly worse to come.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:24 AM   #2022
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Originally Posted by shemp View Post
I suggest that this thread be closed and a new thread opened. There is no more countdown. Roe v. Wade has been overturned. The forces of evil have had their way, and there is certainly worse to come.
At this point just start a "Conservative Trolls dance on America's Grave" thread and get it over with.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:25 AM   #2023
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Nov will be telling. If the GOP doesn't lose seat after seat in Nov we are in real trouble. If they do then Congress has a chance to pass a federal law protecting human rights.
They'd need to keep all of their Senate seats and pick up 10 more for it to pass through the entire legislature. I don't see that happening. I still don't see the Dems keeping the House. If something would cause a shift in that, this would be it though. I can't imagine a lot of independent standing women are going to be pleased by this outcome.

A lot of the Republicans want this on paper, as well as the overturn of Obergefell, but not that they've been the law of the land I don't think people will react very well to those rights being taken away. So I hope you're right, I hope this causes a large increase in Dem victories, but at this moment I have little faith in my fellow Americans. Less than ever before.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:26 AM   #2024
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The Dems can control the House, Senate, Presidency, all the Major Houses of Westeros, the East and West Coast Rappers, all 5 New York Crime Families and it won't matter if there's a 6-3 Conservative Court.

They pass a Federal Law protecting abortion? SCOTUS will rule it Unconstitional.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:27 AM   #2025
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
How can you tell the difference?
It's pretty subtle, you have to really be paying attention. Here's a scale to help (I can't take credit). I've added a few levels not in the graph, but I'm granular like that.

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Old 24th June 2022, 08:29 AM   #2026
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I don't even have it in me to go back through this thread and call out all the trolls who were saying it was "dramatic" to think that Roe V Wade was going to be overturned.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:30 AM   #2027
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I just voted 'Before 31 December 2022'. What do I win?
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:38 AM   #2028
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Nov will be telling. If the GOP doesn't lose seat after seat in Nov we are in real trouble. If they do then Congress has a chance to pass a federal law protecting human rights.
Some commentators are noting that this SC could easily find grounds to overturn such a law.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:41 AM   #2029
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Some commentators are noting that this SC could easily find grounds to overturn such a law.
Which is why we need to have this stuff explicitly and clearly spelled out in the Constitution. So we're not stuck with the whims of interpretation for centuries.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:42 AM   #2030
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Some commentators are noting that this SC could easily find grounds to overturn such a law.
Yeah or just do it and not even pretend they have a reason, either way.

Assuming they don't jump straight to "Just install a Theocratic Dictator" and cut out all the extra steps they'll come after Birth Control next.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:43 AM   #2031
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
The Dems can control the House, Senate, Presidency, all the Major Houses of Westeros, the East and West Coast Rappers, all 5 New York Crime Families and it won't matter if there's a 6-3 Conservative Court.

They pass a Federal Law protecting abortion? SCOTUS will rule it Unconstitional.
Don't quote me on this, but I don't think they can. I don't know that SCOTUS has the power to overturn laws passed by the entirety of the legislature since they decide what is law.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:44 AM   #2032
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
Don't quote me on this, but I don't think they can. I don't know that SCOTUS has the power to overturn laws passed by the entirety of the legislature since they decide what is law.
I didn't say one word about what SCOTUS has the power to do, just what they will do.

Again we still have not gotten an answer to "Republicans have learned they can do whatever they want until someone stops them."

Congress passes a federal abortion protection law. SCOTUS declares it unconstitutional. The Democrats screech "But you can't do that!" What's the next step?

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Old 24th June 2022, 08:47 AM   #2033
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Two points:

1: I always thought that the right to privacy was a very thin twig from which to support reproductive rights. Legally, that is. It seemed like a stretch - reproductive rights should to be a legal right unto its own - on par with other rights clearly spelled out in the Constitution. But the Dems never seemed to push that very hard.

2: The Dems were also naïve to pin their SC questions on the issue of "settled law". The law is settled until it becomes unsettled, it seemed clear that potential justices were using the term to cop out from clearly stating whether or not they would vote against reproductive rights. In that sense, they didn't really perjure themselves, because nobody could ever pin them down hard on whether or not they would vote to overturn Roe v Wade.

"It is settled law" was just an excuse to avoid really answering the question, and the Dems let that slide. If a law is truly unconstitutional, then the SC can overturn it, "settled law" or not. The Dems knew that but pretended not to.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:47 AM   #2034
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I didn't say one word about what SCOTUS has the power to do, just what they will do.

Again we still have not gotten an answer to "Republicans have learned they can do whatever they want until someone stops them."
Yes, I understand. It's all gloom and doom right now, but I'm saying I don't think there is a process to take a law passed through the entire legislature and have it debated in court. I don't think it's possible.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:49 AM   #2035
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
Don't quote me on this, but I don't think they can. I don't know that SCOTUS has the power to overturn laws passed by the entirety of the legislature since they decide what is law.
But the court decides what is Constitutional. That is the basis on which they can throw out any particular law.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:50 AM   #2036
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
"It is settled law" was just an excuse to avoid really answering the question, and the Dems let that slide. If a law is truly unconstitutional, then the SC can overturn it, "settled law" or not. The Dems knew that but pretended not to.
I don't understand this, and admittedly I'm a bit of a dope on some legal things, but if protecting abortion rights passed through the House, Senate and White House, on what grounds could SCOTUS overturn it? It would be codified. Has this happened before and I don't know about it? Where they've actually taken a law that's passed through all houses and they've overturned it on Constitutional grounds? I'll plead ignorance.

Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
But the court decides what is Constitutional. That is the basis on which they can throw out any particular law.
Yes, I see you guys saying this, I'm asking for some form of example. Nothing is coming to mind where all 3 branches of legislature passed something and then SCOTUS said "no, you can't do that".
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:53 AM   #2037
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
Don't quote me on this, but I don't think they can. I don't know that SCOTUS has the power to overturn laws passed by the entirety of the legislature since they decide what is law.
Marbury v. Madison.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:57 AM   #2038
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Marbury v. Madison.
Is that comparable to this case? Reading through it, it sounds like it's more about a specific appointment than the law being overturned. Perhaps break it down better for me? Like I said, I don't understand all this stuff like you may. Pretend I'm a dumb ass, it shouldn't be hard.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:57 AM   #2039
sarge
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
Yes, I understand. It's all gloom and doom right now, but I'm saying I don't think there is a process to take a law passed through the entire legislature and have it debated in court. I don't think it's possible.
You don’t think it possible for the US Supreme Court to rule a law passed by both houses and signed by the President to be unconstitutional?

It is, unequivocally. It has been since Mayberry v Madison.
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Old 24th June 2022, 08:57 AM   #2040
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
I don't understand this, and admittedly I'm a bit of a dope on some legal things, but if protecting abortion rights passed through the House, Senate and White House, on what grounds could SCOTUS overturn it?
"We say so."
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