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#481 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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Haven't you been reading? From the millionaires and billionaires! Robots! AI. All the magical productivity machinery will supply, no need to worry!
And yes I think overall productivity of "money making" stuff will go down as people concentrate more on themselves and their families. This is Jeff Bezos problem, he's the one who will have to pony up the money, it won't be us since we won't be paying taxes on our UBI. |
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#482 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 48,648
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#483 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 48,648
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#484 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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Both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have plans to tax wealth directly to help pay for social programs. Why can't we use this to fund whatever we want? UBI, healthcare for all, cradle to grave security for everyone in the country regardless of race, creed, religion or socioeconomic status.
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#485 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 7,725
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Something that occurred to me today is that certain professions are becoming closed shops that exclude entry to people from poorer backgrounds by demanding experience gained in unpaid internships as a precondition of being considered for paid roles. This makes the job possible for someone with parents willing and able to support them through the internship but is difficult if not impossible for someone with no such support. This particularly has knock on effects in areas such as politics and the media where this is used. UBI doesn't eliminate the problem, particularly since these internships tend to be situated in the most expensive areas, but it would make entry difficult rather than next to impossible.
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"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills |
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#486 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,386
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NewtonTrino doesn't think UBI will work; that's why he's trying to make fun of it.
Of course, there are some millionaires and billionaires in favour of basic income in one form or another; Pierre Omidyar, Mark Zuckerberg, Chris Hughes, Elon Musk, and Tim Berners-Lee for example. So if NewtonTrino is correct and they will be the only ones funding it, one can only admire their altruism. |
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#487 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 96,146
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__________________
I wish I knew how to quit you |
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#488 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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#489 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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Why would they want to if they get free money forever?
The idea of going to college is to get a degree so you can get a well paying gig. But if you don't need a gig you don't need the college. Learning is btw a completely separate thing. Plenty of free information on the internet including plenty of college level (and beyond) stuff. The only reason to go to college is for fun, meeting people and most of all the piece of paper that says you went. Almost all of that is about career. If they still want to go though, no problem, just live on the BI. But I won't be paying since it's not needed (unless my wife forces me to, curses!). |
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#490 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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You'll note however that none of those people have willingly given up their fortunes. Anyone can say anything if they think it's good PR. Although I know there are some rich people who feel incredibly guilty about the whole thing (while still flying around on their jet).
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#491 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 48,648
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#492 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 48,648
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#493 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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It really depends on what you mean by work. It's really difficult to predict what will happen. I'm just trying to lay out some scenarios as to what the various effects might be. For example my hypothetical about families moving out of the city and living on UBI in the country as a group. That seems very plausible to me.
For one thing we are basically subsidizing people to do things that we know aren't economically productive. If we want less productivity because we think that robots are taking over then maybe it will actually function as intended. Think tons of etsy jewelry shops, bad indie videogames etc. from people following their passion (instead of their talent). I'm not sure where all the money is supposed to come from. Once we've taxed away the fortunes of the top 1000 billionaires there probably won't be more after them. So I would expect a rather large middle class tax hike to be necessary to keep the money flowing. Of course the constant lobbying but those on UBI to increase it may up the class warfare ante a little bit. After all this would be a rather large constituency of people who have a direct economic benefit from increasing taxes and increasing the benefit. We already see this kind of thinking coming from the left today so that's not a stretch. A lot of this is why I think a lot of people will simply choose not to work, or if they do work, to do it in the underground untaxed economy (e.g. the black market). This is basically fully automated star trek style communism as the way forward with this simply being the first step. I think the most likely outcome of a $1k per month basic income instituted today would be inflation which make the $1k not worth much and then we are back where we are. This will happen because there won't be an appetite for the required tax increases so they will just print the money up anyway. |
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#494 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,386
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Payday loans have ridiculously high interest rates. An emergency loan paid back through UBI could just be charged interest at inflation, plus actual administrative costs to ensure it doesn't add to the cost of the scheme. It could be paid back in very small deductions. This allows for UBI payments being fairly low on the assumption that people won't usually be living on UBI alone, but still provide an additional safety mechanism for short-term inability to find additional income.
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#495 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,386
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All what money? The net cost of UBI is not simply the amount of UBI multiplied by the number of recipients. Here is an article that claims the net cost is much loss than some have claimed. I admit economics is not my area. If anyone has critiques of this I would be interested.
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#496 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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Well sure, but even if the interest rate was zero they now owe money they need to pay back. This will impact their current budget. Also, once they have a loan outstanding do you let them have another loan? What if they get in another jam?
Debt is generally not a good solution to a problem like this. A better solution would be something like a "hardship exemption" where a social worker looks at the circumstances and authorizes some extra money to get out of the situation. Of course this kind of high touch stuff is the opposite of UBI. |
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#497 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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#498 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,386
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It hardly has any impact on budget if the deductions are very small. And no, it would be sensible not to be allowed more than one loan at a time. I am simply suggesting some tweaks that could increase the effectiveness as a safety net without increasing costs.
You seem to be determined to cling to this idea that some people will try to avoid earning any extra money if receive UBI, and so won't be able to cope with any small additional expenses. Most people who are not disabled can find a way to earn at least a little money.
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#499 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 48,648
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#500 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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#502 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 2,169
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Have not really followed this thread, but just a note on the Finnish study
https://www.kela.fi/perustulokokeilu it was 2000 people and has ended. If the people were not in the study, they would still be on unemployment. Not sure which is less! The lowest level of social security in Finland is about 600 euros a month. |
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I've deleted the one blog link. You can find the humor blog by searching "the kari report blogspot." Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/ |
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#503 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,684
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__________________
Please scream inside your heart. |
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#504 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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Ok. I think you are underestimating how far the money could go if managed well. And also overestimating people's desire to have a crappy job they don't need.
If you are poor today and you have a lot of desire to achieve something like a basic income isn't necessary. People that already have the desire are already out there making things happen. If someone today is in a position to get a basic income they aren't out there busting ass right now. It's the people who cannot achieve right now that will get the basic income. Do you know what you call a poor person who has the desire to achieve? You call them rich. |
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#505 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,684
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You've just expressed the biggest lie of capitalism - that if you are in poverty, it is easy to get yourself out of it if you work hard enough. Repeat: that is a lie.
Have you heard of the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness?
Originally Posted by Terry Pratchett
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Please scream inside your heart. |
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#506 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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I specifically caveat it and I don't recall saying it's easy. In fact it's darn hard work which is why only the people who really have the desire up end successful. Most people, quite frankly, don't have the follow through.
The USA is still a great place to become very well off, if not wealthy, if you want it. Those who want it tend to go and do it though, they don't spend their time pontificating on internet forums. Instead they are out there working towards whatever their goal is. Of course you get the negative nancies who tell everyone they don't control their own lives. That you can't be successful even with hard work. Those people do a lot of damage to people that might otherwise be pretty successful. |
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#507 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,684
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Please scream inside your heart. |
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#508 |
Skeptical about skeptics
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E
Posts: 16,881
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__________________
"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975 |
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#509 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,598
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__________________
"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#510 |
Observer of Phenomena
Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ngunnawal Country
Posts: 69,684
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It's a very good explanation of the paradox of the expensive poor. More often than not, poor people are forced to spend more than rich people, just to stay where they are. People are working hard - holding down three jobs at a time, working every day, but they remain poor, not because they don't have the desire to do well - they do - but because they are forced to spend more of their hard-earned cash buying more crappy stuff.
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#511 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,598
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UBI and giving up fortunes?
Ever heard of Philanthropy? I'd be highly surprised if any of those you query don't donate large amounts to community welfare projects. Ever heard of The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation? The Warren Buffet Giving Pledge? The Giving Pledge is a commitment by the world's wealthiest individuals and families to dedicate the majority of their wealth to giving back. https://givingpledge.org/ (Page lists the many donors.) There sounds like some interesting personal experiences behind these rather conflicting sentences. You speak at times like a rich bastard (as opposed to a negative nancy or a pontificator). Have you been thwarted or successful in your fortune-seeking? Are any of your rich oppressors or business associates on the Giving Pledge list? |
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#512 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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#513 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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Yeah I'm just going to go and ahead and say this is a bunch of hogwash. Terry's story is a good yarn, but that doesn't make it true, especially in the modern world. I see this get trotted out all the time and frankly I'm kind of astounded people think it applies to their lot in life.
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#514 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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Yes, I've heard of it. Notice they haven't given up control yet :0
Actually I have all the respect in the world for Bill & Melinda, they seem to be doing great things. I was thinking more of people like ultra leftist Nick Hanauer. That's the guy with the most wealth guilt I've ever seen.
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#515 |
Penguilicious Spodmaster.
Tagger Join Date: May 2005
Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables).
Posts: 38,598
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If you are managing a non-profit organisation well or a philanthropic charity and not profiting from it, should THEY give up control?
Think of an organisation you donate to. Should their CEO give up control? I don't think I've heard of him. Do you mean he feels guilty, or he should feel guilty? Have you looked into his Annual Reports? I was rabidly anti-Newscorp a few months ago till I read the latest Annual Report. Nuances. Opposing our opponent lets them take advantage of your vehement attention of them. We all need to work together. All of us old JREFers know that "woos" only double down and dig deeper when you confront or bully them all the time. *cough* TBD *finalcommentonthat* I started a thread in Community a month or two ago... We have lots of company owners/directors/CEOs here. They all have Impostor Syndrome. ![]() Well, done, that's very brave of you. ![]() Likewise, I admire refugees who can only afford boat or foot travel and "illegal entry", as opposed to being a "$10 tourist" (term from Australia's White Australia days) or a $100,000 paid Australian immigrant now. All are doing what they can to survive and help. |
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"We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift". |
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#516 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,390
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Nick is a local guy that made a bunch of money investing in (I think) facebook. He pushes for a lot of very lefty causes and talks about the pitchforks coming out for the wealthy. Other than that I don't pay much attention to the guy. One thing I don't have is imposter syndrome. Anyway I just jump into here every once in a while, but overall this place seems like it's dying, as is the concept for a forum like this in general. At one time in my life I really thought this was a great community but I became disillusioned at some point with it. |
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#517 |
No Punting
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Not In Follansbee
Posts: 4,058
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You mean when I can buy a new car that will last ten years because I can afford a down payment when my friend buys a used one that will last less than half that and have more mechanical problems and a payment that is almost as much because due to his low income he is seen as more of a credit risk?
Or when I buy a house and build equity and he rents and doesn't just because I have that down payment? And that rent requires him to live in a part of town that makes getting insurance more expensive? Heck, I paid cash outright for my house, so even as to my friends that can get a mortgage I am ahead all that interest. It is more true today than ever, especially in a world where creditworthiness is important and where we saddle teenagers with debt if they want to get an education. |
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#518 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 274
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Yep. As a person that grew up poor and worked pretty hard to get to the middle class, I'm also going to throw support behind the idea Pratchett was expressing. I've lived through it and seen it. When you're poor, it's damn hard to accumulate anything.
Besides the cost of keeping up with low-quality pruchases (like maintenance on unreliable cars), not knowing how to leverage debt also has a lot to do with it. One of the pieces of "advice" commonly given to the poor also contributes to that cycle: the idea that you should avoid debt at any cost. Beyond the added challenge of spending pretty much all of your money when expenses occur instead of (smartly) using tools to spread out impact, the simple fact of the matter is that in the US, you can't accomplish much of anything without a good credit score and a significant credit history. The only way to build that is by managing debt, and if you avoid participating in that system, you're royally screwed. I fell for that advice and it's still causing me problems that make pretty much every aspect of normal middle class life (getting a car, housing, even trying to get a credit card to build more history) still kind of a challenge for me. To tie this into the larger point about how expensive it can be to be poor, a great example is how much it cost me to rent my current apartment: because of my lack of credit history, I needed to pay double the typical security deposit, along with last month's rent (another cost not usually required at my complex) - that tripped the normal move-in costs and could have easily been prohibitive had I not had decent savings. And it all could have easily been avoided by getting a credit card at 18 and being responsible with it, instead of avoiding debt like poor people are "supposed" to do. And given that all the financial advice and wisdom I hear now is about leveraging debt, it makes me think there might be some insidious motivations behind what I was hearing as a poor teenager. |
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#519 | |||||||||||||||
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,406
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Coincidentally, I discovered when I read my newspaper today that someone has been punting the UBI idea to our parliament, and there are actual numbers attached to the article. ("CBI" stands for "citizens' basic income", so it's the same thing. A bit daft though because "CBI" is usually taken to stand for "Confederation of British Industry" around here.)
MSPs hear benefits of basic income proposal that could pay up to £200 a week
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There are two suggested levels there, the first to give an acceptable standard of living and the second to give absolute bare-minimum assistance. I note the proposal for a lower rate for minor children, then a full adult rate, then a pension-age rate. Looking at these figures as monthly income they seem to be as follows.
I am a bit hazy as to the logic of some of this. It's a short article and I suspect the journalist has cut out information for length. The Joseph Rowntree proposed rates are not far out of line with what we've been discussing for children and adults. I'm a little unclear why the decrease at pension age, because that's when people will no longer be supplementing the CBI with earnings, but I strongly suspect this sum is intended to be in addition to the current state pension rather than to substitute for it. In that case it represents more than a doubling of basic pension-age income which is absolutely needed because state pensions in Britain are extremely low. The lower-rate column is more based on current bare-minimum benefit levels, so I presume child benefit rates, then youth benefit rates, then adult benefit rates, and that last number looks a bit like the current state pension. However, again I'm confused. My state pension right now is £753.61 per month (the figure I gave earlier is actually the 4-weekly payment) so if the lower rate pension-age CBI is supposed to be the pension itself, it's a cut of £28.86 per month, which isn't really on. So maybe again this is a proposal to (almost) double the basic pensioner income? Anyway, it's some figures. It's a concrete proposal that was presented to the Social Security Committe in our parliament. Yesterday. Discuss. |
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"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012. |
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#520 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 7,725
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Media, politics and fashion are three which are commonly cited although law and finance also sometimes use unpaid internships. With regards the media in particular Nick Cohn has written has written about his observations on the effect it's had in the demographics entering the industry.
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__________________
"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills |
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