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Old 6th March 2019, 05:21 PM   #1
theprestige
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How close are we really, to nuclear apocalypse?

They say that Donald Trump poses a unique and unprecedented danger. They say that he is deranged to a degree never before seen in of someone in high office.

Now his wall isn't getting built like he promised. His own party* is cockblocking him on his presidential emergency. His big summit/distraction with North Korea was a failure. Mueller's investigation keeps picking off his henchmen. How much more of this can he take, before he snaps?
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Old 6th March 2019, 05:28 PM   #2
William Parcher
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
How much more of this can he take, before he snaps?
I don't think he would use a nuclear weapon as a method of suicide. My guess would be he would use carbon monoxide from a car in a garage, maybe at Mar a Lago.
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Old 6th March 2019, 05:51 PM   #3
theprestige
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I don't think he would use a nuclear weapon as a method of suicide. My guess would be he would use carbon monoxide from a car in a garage, maybe at Mar a Lago.
What if he doesn't see it as suicide? What if he sees nuking North Korea simply as a matter of stroking his ego, proving his dominance, and keeping all the attention on him?

I mean, you're sketching out a vaguely rational train of thought, there. Is that really the kind mind Trump has? Vaguely rational?

Also is it likely that he's gotten this far in life if suicidal tendencies were part of his psychological makeup? If that were the case wouldn't he have killed himself several bankruptcies ago?

Last edited by theprestige; 6th March 2019 at 05:53 PM.
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Old 6th March 2019, 06:03 PM   #4
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That's a lot of questions there, Jack. You say "they say." What do you think?
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Old 6th March 2019, 06:07 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
If that were the case wouldn't he have killed himself several bankruptcies ago?
Well, he did. The current operating system is RoboTrump2000. The copyright is held by Putin.
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Old 6th March 2019, 06:16 PM   #6
William Parcher
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
What if he doesn't see it as suicide? What if he sees nuking North Korea simply as a matter of stroking his ego, proving his dominance, and keeping all the attention on him?

I mean, you're sketching out a vaguely rational train of thought, there. Is that really the kind mind Trump has? Vaguely rational?
Any one of the Secret Service guys near him could empty their gun into his skull.
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Old 6th March 2019, 06:17 PM   #7
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
That's a lot of questions there, Jack. You say "they say." What do you think?
I think that if you're not ready to grant the premise for the sake of discussion, then you probably don't have anything on topic to contribute to the thread.
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Old 6th March 2019, 06:18 PM   #8
theprestige
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Any one of the Secret Service guys near him could empty their gun into his skull.
Is that how close you think we are? One Secret Service agent away from nuclear Armageddon?
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Old 6th March 2019, 06:50 PM   #9
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We've had plenty of cases of disobedience by the military when it comes to Trump already. A nuclear Frist Strike would never be executed.
Now Pence might be a different matter...
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Old 6th March 2019, 07:19 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Is that how close you think we are? One Secret Service agent away from nuclear Armageddon?
I don't think we are close. But a Secret Service guy could cap him if he reaches for the button.

I don't think Trump would be able to get away with it. He'd talk about what he was going to do. Then he would just be dead. Assassinated inside the White House.
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Old 6th March 2019, 07:43 PM   #11
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I think people have short memories and forget what it was like in the 1950’s through the 1980’s. My elementary school had a fallout shelter labeled as such.

Checks and balances. The biggest threat Trump poses is to his adopted party. Never know when the next Twitter bomb will go off.
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Old 6th March 2019, 07:56 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think that if you're not ready to grant the premise for the sake of discussion, then you probably don't have anything on topic to contribute to the thread.
I think if you start a thread with a premise borrowed from from some imagined third party with no input of your own, you're likely just fishing for gotchas. Is this something you are concerned about?

But as it happens, your premise isn't a new one. "He'd be murdered in a coup" has been the bipartisan answer since before the election. I recall it was sunmaster's position as well, which was why Trump's raging idiocy didn't bother him: he'd simply be removed before he could do any real damage.
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Old 6th March 2019, 08:00 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Any one of the Secret Service guys near him could empty their gun into his skull.
How would that even hurt him? I mean, what is in there to be hurt?
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Old 6th March 2019, 08:07 PM   #14
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As I understand it, the presidential football simply sends messages to various locations via a secure channel to ready the nuclear arsenal. It would need to be followed by confirmation to proceed.

I feel rather sure that, probably on Day 1 of the Trump presidency, the secure channel was quietly "double secured" so it goes via sane senior military officials and other functionaries, etc., for "vetting". If there really was a reason for nuclear weapons to be deployed, they would be making that decision, not Donny.

In other words, Donny pushing the red nuclear button is no more dangerous than switching on a red night-light. But at least he feels good thinking he has the ABSOLUTE POWER!

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Last edited by Norman Alexander; 6th March 2019 at 08:09 PM.
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Old 6th March 2019, 08:33 PM   #15
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The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States
A Speculative Novel
Lewis, Jeffrey G.


Essentially North Korea hits an SK airliner that accidentally comes over NK and Trump's response leads to NK releasing nukes on S Korea, Japan, NYC, WA DC, and FL.

The review on my library site:
Quote:
"America lost 1.4 million citizens in the North Korean attacks of March 2020. This is the final, authorized report of the government commission charged with investigating the calamity." "The skies over the Korean Peninsula on March 21, 2020, were clear and blue. "So begins this sobering report on the findings of the Commission on the Nuclear Attacks against the United States, established by law by Congress and President Donald J. Trump to investigate the horrific events of the next three days. An independent, bipartisan panel led by nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis, the commission was charged with finding and reporting the relevant facts, investigating how the nuclear war began, and determining whether our government was adequately prepared for combating a nuclear adversary and safeguarding U.S. citizens. Did President Trump and his advisers understand North Korean views about nuclear weapons? Did they appreciate the dangers of provoking the country's ruler with social media posts and military exercises? Did the tragic milestones of that fateful month--North Korea's accidental shoot-down of Air Busan flight 411, the retaliatory strike by South Korea, and the tweet that triggered vastly more carnage--inevitably lead to war? Or did America's leaders have the opportunity to avert the greatest calamity in the history of our nation? "Answering these questions will not bring back the lives lost in March 2020. It will not rebuild New York, Washington, or the other cities reduced to rubble. But at the very least, it might prevent a tragedy of this magnitude from occurring again. It is this hope, more than any other, that inspired The 2020 Commission Report"-- Provided by publisher.
"The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States"-- Provided by publisher.
America lost 1.4 million citizens in the North Korean attacks of March 2020. This is the final, authorized report of the government commission charged with investigating the calamity.

The Guardian: Kim Jong-un nukes the US in this terrifyingly plausible near-future novel by a North Korea nuclear weapons expert (reminder this is fiction)
Quote:
At the high tide of optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s June summit with Kim Jong-un in Singapore, Lewis was one of the most persistent voices warning of the dangers of Trump’s unrealistic expectations based on a misunderstanding of the North Korean regime. When Kim agreed to “denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula”, he was not offering unilateral disarmament, Lewis pointed out, but repeating a stock phrase used by the regime for more than two decades to describe a drawn-out and mutual process in which the US would be doing a lot of the disarming...
Quote:
The US obliterates the North Korean army in a 48-hour blitz but it is too late to prevent the worst calamity in US history.
Melania dies in Trump Tower. Trump, Kushner and Ivanka survive..

The nuclear war predictably starts with a tweet. Kim becomes convinced he is about to be killed and decides to launch his nuclear weapons after reading a classic Trump caps-lock exclamation, casually sent from Mar-a-Lago declaring: “LITTLE ROCKET MAN WON’T BE BOTHERING US MUCH LONGER!” Once the missiles are in the air and Trump is yanked away from lunch with his golfing buddies, he makes a lunge for the nuclear “football”, the satchel containing the launch codes for US missiles. After a tussle, his military aide flees the scene with the football, alarmed by Trump’s apparent determination to attack China as well as North Korea. The president lies sprawling on the ground, humiliated and surly. In a funk, he flies off in Air Force One, leaving his senior staff behind to face an incoming North Korean ICBM hurtling towards Mar-a-Lago. Looking out at the mushroom cloud from his window seat, Trump can only murmur: “Absolutely beautiful.” It is a measure of the insanity of the past 18 months that this seems entirely believable....

Trump denouncing the commission (inevitably) as “a total witch hunt” and fake news, the commission shies away from assigning blame,


More about how it could happen:
Quote:
An unexpectedly aggressive military response from South Korea combined with an ill-timed tweet from Trump, while on his way to a tee time in Mar-a-Lago, to make Kim believe he is under attack and that a nuclear strike is his only option for survival.
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Old 6th March 2019, 09:55 PM   #16
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PLEASE don't give the orange baboon any hints!
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Old 6th March 2019, 10:02 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
PLEASE don't give the orange baboon any hints!
Too late, book's already published.
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Old 6th March 2019, 10:03 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
As I understand it, the presidential football simply sends messages to various locations via a secure channel to ready the nuclear arsenal. It would need to be followed by confirmation to proceed.

I feel rather sure that, probably on Day 1 of the Trump presidency, the secure channel was quietly "double secured" so it goes via sane senior military officials and other functionaries, etc., for "vetting". If there really was a reason for nuclear weapons to be deployed, they would be making that decision, not Donny.

In other words, Donny pushing the red nuclear button is no more dangerous than switching on a red night-light. But at least he feels good thinking he has the ABSOLUTE POWER!
https://i.imgur.com/aLADJyf.png

This has been discussed at great length. There is no basis for your belief. There is no mechanism to interrupt a Presidential launch order, other than maybe the Secret Service locking him in a closet, and no requirement that it be confirmed by other officials. The whole system is designed for an instant response when enemy missiles are seconds away. Multiple legislators have attempted to change that fact, so far without success.

Quote:
In the atomic age, when decisions must be made very quickly, the presidency has evolved into something akin to a nuclear monarchy. With a single phone call, the commander in chief has virtually unlimited power to rain down nuclear weapons on any adversarial regime and country at any time. You might imagine this awesome executive power would be hamstrung with checks and balances, but by law, custom and congressional deference there may be no responsibility where the president has more absolute control. There is no advice and consent by the Senate. There is no second-guessing by the Supreme Court.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-policy-213955

Also:
http://time.com/5085723/nuke-button-...s-north-korea/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...=.b44194346b82

Etc., etc.
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Old 7th March 2019, 12:00 AM   #19
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Which is why I believe there will be some form of intervention involved for Trump. It won't be "legal" but it will be there. Some way to talk him out of it, or talk him down. As I said, if a real nuclear strike becomes warranted, it won't be trump's finger on the real button. Any smart adversary will ensure they strike when Donny is not in optimal condition...visiting a porn star, for example.
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Last edited by Norman Alexander; 7th March 2019 at 12:04 AM.
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Old 7th March 2019, 03:31 AM   #20
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When John Kelly was Chief of Staff, I always thought he would be the one to handle things if it required it.

(mentioned before elsewhere)
I think we are much more likely to get into the mess as the result of a mistake, or some third party, than anything else.
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Old 7th March 2019, 04:00 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
They say that Donald Trump poses a unique and unprecedented danger. They say that he is deranged to a degree never before seen in of someone in high office.

Now his wall isn't getting built like he promised. His own party* is cockblocking him on his presidential emergency. His big summit/distraction with North Korea was a failure. Mueller's investigation keeps picking off his henchmen. How much more of this can he take, before he snaps?
To be fair, much as I dislike Trump and much as I think he must have some sort of mental derangement I am far less scared of a possible nuclear conflict than I was during the cold war. The UK government sent out "Protect and Survive" booklets that told us the way to survive was take a door off its hinges, paint it white and place it across the bottom of your stairs. Seriously.
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Old 7th March 2019, 04:06 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
This has been discussed at great length. There is no basis for your belief. There is no mechanism to interrupt a Presidential launch order, other than maybe the Secret Service locking him in a closet, and no requirement that it be confirmed by other officials. The whole system is designed for an instant response when enemy missiles are seconds away. Multiple legislators have attempted to change that fact, so far without success.
But the truth is too scary so they have to invent comforting fictions that say that the system would absolutely never work as it was designed to.
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Old 7th March 2019, 04:07 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Which is why I believe there will be some form of intervention involved for Trump. It won't be "legal" but it will be there. Some way to talk him out of it, or talk him down. As I said, if a real nuclear strike becomes warranted, it won't be trump's finger on the real button. Any smart adversary will ensure they strike when Donny is not in optimal condition...visiting a porn star, for example.
Yea like all the military people who refused their orders to torture prisoners during Bush II. That would have been what we are constantly told they would certainly do if issued illegal orders like violating the UCMC. But this time it would be totally different because reasons.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:11 AM   #24
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Trump is definitely a lunatic, but not that particular kind of lunatic. The real potential starter of a nuclear war is North Korea. They don't have deployable nuclear weapons yet, but they're still working on it, so they will sooner or later. Nothing is going to stop them other than a successful internal rebellion or an air strike (which would need to be the biggest ever, based on the need to also get the artillery aimed at Seoul at the same time so they don't get a chance to start firing). We can't cause the former and our current "President" won't be willing to do the latter because of his love of dictators (especially the worst ones he can find).

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
We've had plenty of cases of disobedience by the military when it comes to Trump already.
Such as...
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:12 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
How close are we really, to nuclear apocalypse?
Two minutes to midnight.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:17 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
They say that Donald Trump poses a unique and unprecedented danger. They say that he is deranged to a degree never before seen in of someone in high office.

Now his wall isn't getting built like he promised. His own party* is cockblocking him on his presidential emergency. His big summit/distraction with North Korea was a failure. Mueller's investigation keeps picking off his henchmen. How much more of this can he take, before he snaps?
Since there is not any way for Trump to make money from destroying a good portion of the world via a nuclear weapons, then I think that it is quite unlikely that Trump will destroy a good portion of the world via a nuclear weapons.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:18 AM   #27
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There is always someone running around screaming like Chicken Little that the sky is falling and they are almost never right...

... however they only have to be right once for it to not to matter.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:28 AM   #28
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No closer than any other time in the last 30-40 years. Probably not as close as in the 60s.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:30 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
Since there is not any way for Trump to make money from destroying a good portion of the world via a nuclear weapons, then I think that it is quite unlikely that Trump will destroy a good portion of the world via a nuclear weapons.
Selective strike on condo, hotel projects owned by other billionaires ?
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:32 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by eeyore1954 View Post
Selective strike on condo, hotel projects owned by other billionaires ?
But if such areas were nuked, then reconstruction could not place for decades due to the residual radiation. Therefore, Trump could not make money from these reconstruction projects.
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On 15 FEB 2019 'BobTheCoward' said: "I constantly assert I am a fool."
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:35 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
But if such areas were nuked, then reconstruction could not place for decades due to the residual radiation. Therefore, Trump could not make money from these reconstruction projects.
Er... were that true, Hiroshima and Nagasaki would not have been rebuilt so quickly. I've been there, they were rebuilt very quickly. No, radiation from nuclear weapons goes away pretty quickly.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:39 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Trump is definitely a lunatic, but not that particular kind of lunatic. The real potential starter of a nuclear war is North Korea. They don't have deployable nuclear weapons yet, but they're still working on it, so they will sooner or later. Nothing is going to stop them other than a successful internal rebellion or an air strike (which would need to be the biggest ever, based on the need to also get the artillery aimed at Seoul at the same time so they don't get a chance to start firing). We can't cause the former and our current "President" won't be willing to do the latter because of his love of dictators (especially the worst ones he can find).

Such as...
Why would they use them though? Using nuclear weapons means that they would feel either they have no choice such as in the face of an invasion, or that they can get what they want with using them.

In a lot of ways Trump is the only world leader I see who believes all his own hype so much that he could see using them as an easy option and one that wouldn't come back to him.

Kim wants them as a deterrent as no nation with nuclear weapons has ever been invaded. Civil war would seem likely the most likely internal reason to see NK nukes go off.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:41 AM   #33
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I think Trump has proven himself to be a coward. Most powerful office on earth and can’t fire someone to their face. I don’t think he could make an order like that without an intermediary.
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Old 7th March 2019, 07:43 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by eeyore1954 View Post
No closer than any other time in the last 30-40 years. Probably not as close as in the 60s.
Probably right, closer to the use of nuclear weapons in a limited sense, but certainly not the full american and Russian arsenals being used, and way farther than it was during the Cuban Missile crisis.

I think that from the India and Pakistan conflict and that I really think Trump does believe he could use them and not face serious consequences in the right situation.
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Old 7th March 2019, 08:08 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
I really think Trump does believe he could use them and not face serious consequences in the right situation.
He would be assassinated inside the White House before pushing the button.

One single good guy with a gun would be a hero to all.
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Old 7th March 2019, 08:09 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Two minutes to midnight.
Up the Irons!!!!
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Old 7th March 2019, 09:07 AM   #37
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Question

Originally Posted by Parsman View Post
To be fair, much as I dislike Trump and much as I think he must have some sort of mental derangement I am far less scared of a possible nuclear conflict than I was during the cold war. The UK government sent out "Protect and Survive" booklets that told us the way to survive was take a door off its hinges, paint it white and place it across the bottom of your stairs. Seriously.
We should be more scared than during the Cold War, when no one doubted that it could happen.
Now, no one really thinks anyone would do it, which might make it necessary to a small power to demonstrate their will to use nukes, just to be believable.
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Old 7th March 2019, 09:18 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
I don't think he would use a nuclear weapon as a method of suicide. My guess would be he would use carbon monoxide from a car in a garage, maybe at Mar a Lago.
He'd have to know how to start it.
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Old 7th March 2019, 09:21 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
He'd have to know how to start it.
Not if he uses the art of the deal to get someone else to start the car for him.
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Old 7th March 2019, 09:22 AM   #40
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"I'll kill myself if you'll start this car for me."

That's the art of a deal.
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